Brexit discussion thread III

flatty

I'm living on "the mainland", am reasonably well informed, and have never even heard of him if that's any guide.

Call me Al

An Claidheamh wrote: »

This appears to have passed us by, but further proof that this guy pretending (badly) to care about Irish interests, is in fact working for the Brexiteers.

He smells of desperation.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/uk/former-irish-diplomat-calls-for-backstop-demand-to-be-dropped-1.3499448?mode=amp


Bassett (remember him) wants our government/EU to stop bullying the Brits because they won't agree to the backstop........ accept that....they will.



He's promoting a pamphlet you see.



"Dr Bassett was speaking at the launch of his pamphlet Brexit and the Border: Where Ireland’s True Interests Lie, which is published by the Politeia think tank."

- which he was launching in Britain......???


"It is being used as a threat. I have met nobody in Dublin who believes that the backstop will be implemented,” he said."

- I get the impression he's not actually talking to anybody in Dublin.

Just an attention seeker.

You'd wonder do his British audience notice this at all.

He did an interview with Pat Kenny a few weeks back. It was quite depressing. He believed that EU were using Ireland to their own end and that ultimately we here in the republic would lose out to greater powers at play in Brussels. He's a eurosceptic, now Brexit has occurred, and former lifetimes foreign affairs employee.

He thinks brexit will destroy our economy and wants us to do a bilateral trade deal with the UK. Since we can't do so from inside the EU he thinks it's in our interests to follow them out of the common market.

An Ciarraioch

Tony Connelly believes May has won the latest round, in terms of interpreting the backstop as a UK-wide protocol that doesn't require FoM, largely because it could drive a wedge between the Irish endgame of no trade barriers, and the EU cornerstone of the four freedoms:

https://www.rte.ie/amp/964505/?__twitter_impression=true

Enzokk

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Tony Connelly believes May has won the latest round, in terms of interpreting the backstop as a UK-wide protocol that doesn't require FoM, largely because it could drive a wedge between the Irish endgame of no trade barriers, and the EU cornerstone of the four freedoms:

https://www.rte.ie/amp/964505/?__twitter_impression=true

You would need to quote the part where he thinks the UK has won the latest round as I cannot find it. What I find is the following passages that show that the agreement reached could be read in many ways by people and there are dangers for both parties in how they approach the text of the agreement,

Why would it not be politically (or legally) acceptable to the EU?

There are several reasons. As mentioned, this is seen as the UK grabbing an unwarranted shortcut into its future trade relationship using the backstop.

Secondly, if you follow the logic of London’s interpretation of paragraph 49, the UK would also align with the rules of the single market, but without having to apply the four freedoms, or without accepting the role of the European Court of Justice - in other words, cherry-picking.

British sources point out that, if there was selective alignment on the single market it would not cover services, and that is where London sees the British economy growing.

"If you turn that protocol UK-wide, it is the ****tiest deal for the UK ever," complains one British source. "It deals with no services issues whatsoever. For the Germans, the French, the Dutch, the Irish, the Belgians, the Danes - who all have this massive goods or agri surplus with us - all of their issues get fixed in one go.

"Yet what the UK needs, in terms of its ability to grow - services - is not covered at all."

And then we have the concluding paragraph which states,

But it is a risky period. Theresa May turning the Irish Protocol UK-wide is fraught with danger, both for her own position, and in terms of how squeamish the EU and other member states are about what appears to be a dizzying, last-minute somersault.

So to me it reads that there is still some rocky patches to come with regards to the negotiations, not that the UK has "won" the last phase. I am open to be corrected though.

Panrich

Tony has been close to the behind the scenes thinking and he’s hinting in that article that there are warning signs of divergence between EU and Irish interests.
The UK might have finally found the tool they were looking for to drive a wedge in to EU unity.

Clariss

The main body blow for the UK in terms of Brexit is the loss of euro companies, which currently use cheap migrant euro workers in the many large processing companies. Food processing especially applies here; where east euros work longer hours for less pay. They will bail out and in turn those workers will return home as enclave communities dwindle without employment. But this may result in better outcomes for those with less skills. Companies replacing this shortfall will have to pay British workers more and offer better working conditions.

Water John

I think the Irish Govn't will stay very close, like a limpet, to the EU and always adopt a joint position. UK would love to prise a wedge, has always been their tactic.

Enzokk

Panrich wrote: »

Tony has been close to the behind the scenes thinking and he’s hinting in that article that there are warning signs of divergence between EU and Irish interests.
The UK might have finally found the tool they were looking for to drive a wedge in to EU unity.

I do get that from the article, the EU is in a tougher positions than we thought and there are dangers ahead for them. I also read that there is potential problems for Theresa May if she does use the apparent advantage that the wording of the text in December provides her, it also put the UK at a disadvantage as it excludes services. So while in e.g. agriculture they would be in and out, services would be excluded.

As I posted if he wrote that she has won the last session as An Ciarraioch posted, I couldn't find him stating it in the article. See my last sentence in my post where I acknowledge both sides still have obstacles that they need to be wary of.

Christy42

Panrich wrote: »

Tony has been close to the behind the scenes thinking and he’s hinting in that article that there are warning signs of divergence between EU and Irish interests.
The UK might have finally found the tool they were looking for to drive a wedge in to EU unity.

People keep saying this and I have yet to see it. At a certain point you stop believing in the wolf. If he believed it likely I would expect him to come out and say it in a much stronger fashion.

Realistically the UK would need to sort out its own unity first before it could apply pressure in this manner.

Leroy42

The problem that the UK face is that every time that they can solve one problem it creates further ones.

So even if they manage to wiggle out of the December agreement, either Ireland or the EU will feel cheated (based on their interpretation of what they had agreed in December) and thus will be less likely to agree to move forward. Thus Ireland or the EU can pull out of the deal.

As mentioned, they may get a deal on goods, but what about services. If Dublin feel cheated on the border are they really going to be in the UK camp to help London maintain passporting.

For a country that is looking to get a FTA with the EU and then set up multiple international trade deals across the world is it really a good idea to try to pull a fast one? And even if May pulls it off, there is no guarantee that she will be able to get the vote through parliament and thus it would have been all for nothing but left every one annoyed

flatty

And the UK would be insane to wave through a deal which doesn't incorporate services. Nonetheless it sounds like some sort of compromise may be possible somehow. It just p1sses me off that so few oddball, venal bigots can hold the process to ransom.

An Claidheamh

Call me Al wrote: »

He did an interview with Pat Kenny a few weeks back. It was quite depressing. He believed that EU were using Ireland to their own end and that ultimately we here in the republic would lose out to greater powers at play in Brussels. He's a eurosceptic, now Brexit has occurred, and former lifetimes foreign affairs employee.

He thinks brexit will destroy our economy and wants us to do a bilateral trade deal with the UK. Since we can't do so from inside the EU he thinks it's in our interests to follow them out of the common market.

That's the thing, it's Britain's interests he is supporting ... very badly and quite obviously.

He's actually advising the British against the Irish government.
Trying to whip them up.

He's now pushing for a cakeist free trade agreement which won't happen.

When he was in the Irish media last year no one seemed to call out his nonsense, yet in Britain he claims he's a victim of the Irish establishment and plays his trade with these moronic anti-Irish British "think tanks".


Incidentally, his latest offering is already redundant.

Will be no break up of the EU, and looks like Britain are back stopping like crazy.

Sam Russell

flatty wrote: »

And the UK would be insane to wave through a deal which doesn't incorporate services. Nonetheless it sounds like some sort of compromise may be possible somehow. It just p1sses me off that so few oddball, venal bigots can hold the process to ransom.

I think the UK are insane to get to where they are now. They are still looking for cakeist solution which they will not achieve.

For a frictionless NI border, they need to be in the CU and SM. Now some aspects of the SM could be left out if it is not relevant to NI and Ireland, and the all Island economy. However, if they are not applying that to the whole of the UK there has to be inspection at ports.

If they retain any aspects of the SM, they must contribute to EU funds to pay for the EU institutions that maintain the SM, and accept ECJ jurisdiction. Will they accept that? And will the EU accept the UK not accepting the four freedoms?

Well, the EU have been quite clear on cherry picking so far.

Strazdas

Leroy42 wrote: »

The problem that the UK face is that every time that they can solve one problem it creates further ones.

So even if they manage to wiggle out of the December agreement, either Ireland or the EU will feel cheated (based on their interpretation of what they had agreed in December) and thus will be less likely to agree to move forward. Thus Ireland or the EU can pull out of the deal.

As mentioned, they may get a deal on goods, but what about services. If Dublin feel cheated on the border are they really going to be in the UK camp to help London maintain passporting.

For a country that is looking to get a FTA with the EU and then set up multiple international trade deals across the world is it really a good idea to try to pull a fast one? And even if May pulls it off, there is no guarantee that she will be able to get the vote through parliament and thus it would have been all for nothing but left every one annoyed

There's no way the UK are in a position to force through anything or claim the EU have signed up to something they haven't actually signed up to. Britain is in an incredibly weak position and heavily outnumbered and cannot dictate anything that happens. They're the ones looking for access to the Single Market or a free trade deal with the EU, not the other way around.

There is simply no chance for them to pull a fast one or to try and bully the EU and Ireland to give them what they want. The EU could collapse the trade talks at a moment's notice and wouldn't even need to give an explanation or excuse.

An Ciarraioch

You might need to sit down for this post - an outbreak of common sense from a DUP member!

https://www.newsletter.co.uk/news/your-say/we-in-the-dup-should-back-a-softer-brexit-to-save-union-1-8504204/amp?__twitter_impression=true

An Ciarraioch

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

You might need to sit down for this post - an outbreak of common sense from a DUP member!

https://www.newsletter.co.uk/news/your-say/we-in-the-dup-should-back-a-softer-brexit-to-save-union-1-8504204/amp?__twitter_impression=true

Yeah, that's actually pretty on point.

flatty

It sort of is, bar his delusion that many nationalists are closet unionists. Many nationalists are closet me feiners, feeling the status quo is better on their pocket, and with the level of public sector employment in the North, its easy to see why. Unionists this does not make them.

Jim2007

flatty wrote: »

And the UK would be insane to wave through a deal which doesn't incorporate services. Nonetheless it sounds like some sort of compromise may be possible somehow.

A deal that would include financial services is simply not possible. You cannot have a situation where a substantial player is not under the jurisdiction of the ECJ, they would be in a position to manipulate the market without any to keep them under control. A few countries have been given access to the EU on stock exchange services, but banks and related services have been ruled out.

EdgeCase

Well, from the DUP's point of view, the status quo is probably the best they'll ever get. The alternatives for Northern Ireland are all upheaval and potential chaos. Single-sided absolutism in Northern Ireland will not and cannot work.

flatty

Jim2007 wrote: »

flatty wrote: »

And the UK would be insane to wave through a deal which doesn't incorporate services. Nonetheless it sounds like some sort of compromise may be possible somehow.

A deal that would include financial services is simply not possible. You cannot have a situation where a substantial player is not under the jurisdiction of the ECJ, they would be in a position to manipulate the market without any to keep them under control. A few countries have been given access to the EU on stock exchange services, but banks and related services have been ruled out.

Exactly. This ECJ thing is a solo run my teresa may. She, and she alone drew the red lines, and fcuk everyone else.

Nody

flatty wrote: »

Exactly. This ECJ thing is a solo run my teresa may. She, and she alone drew the red lines, and fcuk everyone else.

I still think she's sore over her defeat as minister with the court rulings from Hague on human rights and for some reason connect them all as one big thing (either being clueless or simply refusing to accept non UK rulings which is silly as any trade dispute etc. by definition will be decided by a non UK court).

flatty

Nody wrote: »

I still think she's sore over her defeat as minister with the court rulings from Hague on human rights and for some reason connect them all as one big thing (either being clueless or simply refusing to accept non UK rulings which is silly as any trade dispute etc. by definition will be decided by a non UK court).

That would be my take on it also.

dublinbuster

Its plain to see if you take a step back.
The UK is dragging it out as long as possible, why you ask?
Italy could Jump any day now.
Wont take much for Greece to Jump.
Wont take much for Spain to Jump.
Wont take much for east Europe to jump.
Hell the PIGGS could jump in the morning.
Trade war with USA looming
Real war with Russia a possibility
The € is extremely vulnerable, wont take much for it to collapse.
No end in sight to refugees flooding in to EU
Ramavan is off and running, only a matter of time before the next atrocity
UK has the whip hand and it gets stronger the longer it drags out

CrabRevolution

dublinbuster wrote: »

Its plain to see if you take a step back.
The UK is dragging it out as long as possible, why you ask?
Italy could Jump any day now.
Wont take much for Greece to Jump.
Wont take much for Spain to Jump.
Wont take much for east Europe to jump.
Hell the PIGGS could jump in the morning.
Trade war with USA looming
Real war with Russia a possibility
The € is extremely vulnerable, wont take much for it to collapse.
No end in sight to refugees flooding in to EU
Ramavan is off and running, only a matter of time before the next atrocity
UK has the whip hand and it gets stronger the longer it drags out

There's more chance of Scotland or NI leaving the UK then there is of any of those countries leaving the EU.

And in any case, not one of the things you've listed is going to happen within the next 10 months (well, bar Ramadan). 10 Months being when the UK needs to have a solution by.

Why would the UK be stalling for time when it's the UK who desperately need a deal soon to prevent their economy imploding next March?

mickoneill31

dublinbuster wrote: »

Its plain to see if you take a step back.
The UK is dragging it out as long as possible, why you ask?
Italy could Jump any day now.
Wont take much for Greece to Jump.
Wont take much for Spain to Jump.
Wont take much for east Europe to jump.
Hell the PIGGS could jump in the morning.
Trade war with USA looming
Real war with Russia a possibility
The € is extremely vulnerable, wont take much for it to collapse.
No end in sight to refugees flooding in to EU
Ramavan is off and running, only a matter of time before the next atrocity
UK has the whip hand and it gets stronger the longer it drags out

Add in Ireland could leave as it depends on the UK so much.

Some idiots in the UK believed that too.

Zubeneschamali

dublinbuster wrote: »

Italy could Jump any day now.
Wont take much for Greece to Jump.
Wont take much for Spain to Jump.
Wont take much for east Europe to jump.
Hell the PIGGS could jump in the morning.
Trade war with USA looming
Real war with Russia a possibility
The € is extremely vulnerable, wont take much for it to collapse.
No end in sight to refugees flooding in to EU

Welcome, time traveller from 2008! Much has changed since your time.

MBSnr

Possible election talk...
https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/conservative-party/theresa-may/news/95328/tory-mps-preparing-another-snap

Capt'n Midnight

dublinbuster wrote: »

Its plain to see if you take a step back.
The UK is dragging it out as long as possible, why you ask?
Italy could Jump any day now.

The populist parties in Italy have made two things very clear.

A - they aren't happy with the EU and they want big changes in things like immigration and payments and control Change the names and it could a UKIP manifsto.

B - they will change the system from within.


If you are a marriage counsellor do you spend more time on the couple that's having relationship difficulties but are trying to work them out or the one that's already filed for divorce and whose next date is the one in court ?

This will take attention away from the UK.

It also means that any concessions given to the UK will have to be given to Italy, but the UK will no be entitled to any given to Italy.


It's possible rather than probable that Italy will get enough concessions to have appeased the soft-brexiteers, apart from the "take back control" guff

Capt'n Midnight

MBSnr wrote: »

Possible election talk...
https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/conservative-party/theresa-may/news/95328/tory-mps-preparing-another-snap

Have the DUP seen this yet ?

Christy42

dublinbuster wrote: »

Its plain to see if you take a step back.
The UK is dragging it out as long as possible, why you ask?
Italy could Jump any day now.
Wont take much for Greece to Jump.
Wont take much for Spain to Jump.
Wont take much for east Europe to jump.
Hell the PIGGS could jump in the morning.
Trade war with USA looming
Real war with Russia a possibility
The € is extremely vulnerable, wont take much for it to collapse.
No end in sight to refugees flooding in to EU
Ramavan is off and running, only a matter of time before the next atrocity
UK has the whip hand and it gets stronger the longer it drags out

Evidence for literally any of that? Greece went to the brink and realised it was screwed without the help of the EU. They won't jump. Similar for Italy and Spain. That leaves us and Portugal in the PIGS. Haven't heard much from Portugal but here the EU is massively favoured in all polls with all main (successful) political parties supporting the EU.

The euro is fine. No war with Russia is incoming.

The UK is dragging this out because they are realising that they have promised to jump off a cliff and are desperately trying to find a way out that doesn't tank them.

VonZan

dublinbuster wrote: »

Its plain to see if you take a step back.
The UK is dragging it out as long as possible, why you ask?
Italy could Jump any day now.
Wont take much for Greece to Jump.
Wont take much for Spain to Jump.
Wont take much for east Europe to jump.
Hell the PIGGS could jump in the morning.
Trade war with USA looming
Real war with Russia a possibility
The € is extremely vulnerable, wont take much for it to collapse.
No end in sight to refugees flooding in to EU
Ramavan is off and running, only a matter of time before the next atrocity
UK has the whip hand and it gets stronger the longer it drags out

The UK have very little power. The days of the empire dangling shiny things in front of imbeciles are long gone. The UK is dragging out Brexit because they think they can cherry pick the best bits from the EU. The deal Brexiters want is impossible.

It's only dragging out because we still have no idea what Brexit really means for the UK. They have been told they can't cherry pick yet they seem naieve enough to think that the longer this drags on the more desperate the EU will be to do a deal which simply isn't true. The UK have left themselves exposed during this interim period. It's an embarrassment and goes back to conservatives pandering to the little englanders.

EdgeCase

I would actually think that the bigger risk is that the UK economy tanks and causes a knock-on problem in Ireland.

There's a lot of issues like high levels of consumer debt and so on that could suddenly be crystallised and exposed in the UK.

My concern is that there's a sudden slide in sentiment and confidence and the whole Brexit process is really not inspiring a lot of that at the moment.

It's reminding me of the kind of head-in-sand exceptionalism that was around in Ireland in 2007/8 when people were all telling us that there was absolutely no risk to the Irish economy whatsoever and that we were somehow special and different and everything was fine. This was despite all the experts raising red alerts about impending problems.

Leroy42

Dragging what out? A50 has a strict deadline of 2 years, 10 months or so left.

They are the ones with the most to lose, it is quite a gamble that something else will happen which is not only outside their control but any reactions to it are also outside of their control.

The final problem is that during the campaign Leavers assured everyone tgat the UK had all the aces and a deal would be easy. Now it rests on the gamble that Italy or something else will happen.

Infini

My guess is that come June the UK will come up with some unacceptable proposal that still doesnt work and the EU/Ireland will basically suspend the talks on this and the border issue. This isnt out of spite but rather that we're running short on time and realistically the only way the UK is gonna realise how screwed they are is by essentially giving them a pre-emptive shock to force them to face the reality that awaits if they either dont cop on or put this whole thing on ice and have another referendum down the line.

They HAVE to understand that there will be no winners from this, the bullshyteers are incompetent liars and a 5th column to their own countries wellbeing and that while going through will this will hurt the EU in the short term, its big enough to absorb the shock and they will support Ireland from any potential fallout out of sheer necessity and solidarity. The UK on the otherhand might not even survive Brexit, The scots case for a 2nd indyref is building by the day and a rerun will most certainly result in scottish independence the 2nd time around and they would possibly rejoin the EU very quickly. It would ironically leave a rump state of England outside the EU with Scotland inside thus Brexit would in the long term be limited to the area's that actually voted to leave not stay.

Northern Ireland will likely result in Reunification with the rest Ireland because the whole Brexit fiasco reactivated the nationalist agenda simply by disrupting the status-quo. The DUP will end up owning the whole thing because they pushed an agenda that actually UNDERMINED unionism in the long term and I would say there'd be quite a few who wont waste pointing that out and hammering them with it. Others in the unionist block will most likely start looking at the option of a UI out of economic considerations and probably look at securing financial assistance and british citizenship as part of any potential handover deal to cover their bases. The Die hards will probably rabble rouse for a while but ultimately end up bregrudingly accepting the situation or moving to England.

An Ciarraioch

85% in the North want either the UK or NI remain in the CU and SM:

https://t.co/Q1VLhnFJV3?amp=1

If this snap election that's being talked about actually happened, I reckon the DUP would lose some seats based on that polling in the north.

flatty

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

85% in the North want either the UK or NI remain in the CU and SM:

https://t.co/Q1VLhnFJV3?amp=1

I wonder what a referendum rerun would bring there?

Hurrache

Nigel Lawson on Pat Kenny this morning. Well worth a listen to to get an understanding as to why the British establishment is where it is on this. Good levels of delusion, and he somehow managed to get in the statement that the IRA were defeated into the conversation. And he lives in France.

Hurrache

Hurrache wrote: »

Nigel Lawson on Pat Kenny this morning. Well worth a listen to to get an understanding as to why the British establishment is where it is on this. Good levels of delusion, and he somehow managed to get in the statement that the IRA were defeated into the conversation. And he lives in France.

Waved away any awkward questions.... Dont worry there wont be any problems in trade or travel.... IRA defeated etc etc....

He doesnt give a damn.

Leroy42

And throughout all this back and forth, there is still no one idea about how services will be dealt with.

There is a story in the Express today about how getting the fishing policy back will lead to an increase in £32m of fish revenues. I don't know what the CoL is worth in terms of trade, but it is certainly far more than that.

EdgeCase

I actually find a lot of UK media coverage seems to not seem to understand context of amounts. For example, councils given £100 milion to repair British potholes. For the whole of the UK...

It was touted like it was fantastic. It would be like the Irish government allocating £7 million for road maintenance. It's hardly going to make much of an impact. I mean it's better than nothing but it's not going to solve the problems.

Then you get the contribution to the EU, out of context and with no comprehension of how big the EU is.

Water John

Boris lost at last week's Cabinet. Still trying to rachet up Brexit.
He is in the Amazon forest in Peru ATM. I think that's a fair exchange for Paddington Bear.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/may/20/boris-johnson-we-want-a-deal-with-the-eu-not-a-customs-backstop

blanch152

EdgeCase wrote: »

I would actually think that the bigger risk is that the UK economy tanks and causes a knock-on problem in Ireland.

There's a lot of issues like high levels of consumer debt and so on that could suddenly be crystallised and exposed in the UK.

My concern is that there's a sudden slide in sentiment and confidence and the whole Brexit process is really not inspiring a lot of that at the moment.

It's reminding me of the kind of head-in-sand exceptionalism that was around in Ireland in 2007/8 when people were all telling us that there was absolutely no risk to the Irish economy whatsoever and that we were somehow special and different and everything was fine. This was despite all the experts raising red alerts about impending problems.

I would hope that any Irish SMEs dependent on the UK economy have spent the last two years seeking new markets. Otherwise they are in trouble.

Brexit presents opportunities as well as problems. Ireland has to maximise the opportunities and minimise the problems. If if does, the Irish economy as a whole could even see a boost.

However, that will still mask individual issues. The new jobs in financial services won't be going to the people who were working in mushrooms in Monaghan.

Professor Moriarty

EdgeCase wrote: »

I actually find a lot of UK media coverage seems to not seem to understand context of amounts. For example, councils given £100 milion to repair British potholes. For the whole of the UK...

It was touted like it was fantastic. It would be like the Irish government allocating £7 million for road maintenance. It's hardly going to make much of an impact. I mean it's better than nothing but it's not going to solve the problems.

Then you get the contribution to the EU, out of context and with no comprehension of how big the EU is.

Interestingly, the Brexit financial settlement comes to £100 million x 37000.

An Ciarraioch

flatty wrote: »

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

85% in the North want either the UK or NI remain in the CU and SM:

https://t.co/Q1VLhnFJV3?amp=1

I wonder what a referendum rerun would bring there?

They asked that as well - 69% Yes. Interestingly, on the SM question, even 75% of Protestants wanted NI to stay in, so major decision for the DUP when that amendment returns to the Commons.

Leroy42

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

They asked that as well - 69% Yes. Interestingly, on the SM question, even 75% of Protestants wanted NI to stay in, so major decision for the DUP when that amendment returns to the Commons.

In a normal democracy yes, but NI is not a normal democracy. At most DUp supporters may think to change over to UUP, but that would be limited in that they fear SF getting the advantage and thus wouldn't want to split the vote

blanch152

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

They asked that as well - 69% Yes. Interestingly, on the SM question, even 75% of Protestants wanted NI to stay in, so major decision for the DUP when that amendment returns to the Commons.

Leroy42 wrote: »

In a normal democracy yes, but NI is not a normal democracy. At most DUp supporters may think to change over to UUP, but that would be limited in that they fear SF getting the advantage and thus wouldn't want to split the vote

This is an interesting poll:

https://policyexchange.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/PX-union-poll-May-summary-2018.pdf

Support for the Union stronger in Northern Ireland than in Scotland.

This academic study has some even more interesting aspects:

https://www.qub.ac.uk/sites/brexitni/BrexitandtheBorder/Report/Filetoupload,820734,en.pdf

Apart from the fact that it takes £3,500 a year to persuade a majority of Catholics to vote for a United Ireland, money and Brexit can't change Protestant minds:

"It should be noted that Protestant support for Irish unity is very low and resistant to significant fluctuation as a function of these various exit and economic conditions."


P.S. Before anyone accuses me of using sectarian references to Protestant and Catholic rather than nationalist and unionist, those were the references in the academic study.

listermint

blanch152 wrote: »

This is an interesting poll:

https://policyexchange.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/PX-union-poll-May-summary-2018.pdf

Support for the Union stronger in Northern Ireland than in Scotland.

This academic study has some even more interesting aspects:

https://www.qub.ac.uk/sites/brexitni/BrexitandtheBorder/Report/Filetoupload,820734,en.pdf

Apart from the fact that it takes £3,500 a year to persuade a majority of Catholics to vote for a United Ireland, money and Brexit can't change Protestant minds:

"It should be noted that Protestant support for Irish unity is very low and resistant to significant fluctuation as a function of these various exit and economic conditions."


P.S. Before anyone accuses me of using sectarian references to Protestant and Catholic rather than nationalist and unionist, those were the references in the academic study.

Ah grand il take a study from a website with such contributions as this

https://policyexchange.org.uk/dont-listen-to-the-doom-mongers-why-the-uk-including-northern-ireland-can-leave-the-customs-union-avoid-a-hard-border-and-preserve-the-good-friday-agreement/

Don’t listen to the doom-mongers – why the UK (including Northern Ireland) can leave the Customs Union, avoid a hard border and preserve the Good Friday Agreement

Hmm

blanch152

listermint wrote: »

Ah grand il take a study from a website with such contributions as this

https://policyexchange.org.uk/dont-listen-to-the-doom-mongers-why-the-uk-including-northern-ireland-can-leave-the-customs-union-avoid-a-hard-border-and-preserve-the-good-friday-agreement/




Hmm

Policyexchange didn't carry out the poll. Not sure if it was Delta or ICM but they were only reporting on it. Here is a link to another news article on the polls:


https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/new-poll-finds-just-21-support-for-a-united-ireland-despite-fears-about-post-brexit-irish-border/

MBSnr

NI Freight Trade Association finally told David Davis some facts. Perhaps now he might get it...

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/may/21/tracking-lorries-irish-border-issue-hauliers-david-davis