Brexit discussion thread III

An Ciarraioch

Unfortunately, Karen Bradley then promptly insisted that NI would leave the customs union:

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-44202832

Meanwhile, Paisley Jnr has likened Brexit to pregnancy, that you can't have half measures!

catrionanic

How are they STILL touting this absolute bullsh1t at this point in the game?!

Will someone please grab the lot of them and shake them?!

flatty

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

flatty wrote: »

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

85% in the North want either the UK or NI remain in the CU and SM:

https://t.co/Q1VLhnFJV3?amp=1

I wonder what a referendum rerun would bring there?

They asked that as well - 69% Yes. Interestingly, on the SM question, even 75% of Protestants wanted NI to stay in, so major decision for the DUP when that amendment returns to the Commons.

Yes as in yes brexit, or yes remain?

An Ciarraioch

Yes, remain in the EU, so +13% on the referendum.

flatty

Idiots should have thought of that the first time. What it does suggest is that May and co are wilfully flouting democracy.

LeinsterDub

flatty wrote: »

Idiots should have thought of that the first time. What it does suggest is that May and co are wilfully flouting democracy.

She would argue she's just implementing the will of the people. I not sure how you can argue she's flouting democracy because a few people have changed their minds. Perhaps if it was evident there is a ground swell of change but polls in Britain don't seem to be indicating that.

Anthracite

LeinsterDub wrote: »

She would argue she's just implementing the will of the people. I not sure how you can argue she's flouting democracy because a few people have changed their minds. Perhaps if it was evident there is a ground swell of change but polls in Britain don't seem to be indicating that.

I'd say the polling in England is being distorted at this point by epidemic levels of fingers in ears. I think the cognitive dissonance involved in admitting that the Brexit they thought they were voting for is a very different animal from the Brexit they will get will prevent too many people changing their minds until they can convincingly pretend to themselves that they were opposed to it all along.

Beechwoodspark

Hurrache wrote: »

Nigel Lawson on Pat Kenny this morning. Well worth a listen to to get an understanding as to why the British establishment is where it is on this. Good levels of delusion, and he somehow managed to get in the statement that the IRA were defeated into the conversation. And he lives in France.

Lawson was comical and honestly a bit pathetic this morning. He denied Brexit is creating any problems- he might as well have put his fingers in his ears and shouted bla bla bla.

He’s yesterday’s man and he doesn’t even try to hide it any more. He has mentally checked into the old folks home at this stage.

Capt'n Midnight

Leroy42 wrote: »

And throughout all this back and forth, there is still no one idea about how services will be dealt with.

There is a story in the Express today about how getting the fishing policy back will lead to an increase in £32m of fish revenues. I don't know what the CoL is worth in terms of trade, but it is certainly far more than that.

This is just more shouting "take back control" , when the real issue is not enforcing the existing rules.

Getting the 32 largest boats to land just half of their catch in the UK would generate £232 million, and 2,700 jobs.

Instead foreign owners are allowed to operate as "British boats" with British quotas and land elsewhere in Europe. Many have been caught doing illegal stuff and still been given quotas. So much for enforcing rules.



http://britishseafishing.co.uk/cornelis-vrolijk/

In November 2014 the British media reported that a single Dutch trawler, the Cornelis Vrolijk, had the right to catch 23% of England’s entire fishing quota (1). To put this into perspective the entire small inshore fishing fleet for the whole England is given 4% of the quota.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/15/how-one-dinghy-has-the-rights-to-catch-1500-tonnes-of-fish/
A 4.8m long boat with an outboard that doesn't even have a wheel house has a quota of 1,500 tonnes of fish a year.[/URL] It's a loophole, the owners nominated it as the licence holder and other boats can use it. The dingy is tied up in a UK harbour, but the working trawlers and fish and jobs are elsewhere.


Every time this comes up it reminds me just how two faced Michael Grove is.

Capt'n Midnight

MBSnr wrote: »

NI Freight Trade Association finally told David Davis some facts. Perhaps now he might get it...

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/may/21/tracking-lorries-irish-border-issue-hauliers-david-davis

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Unfortunately, Karen Bradley then promptly insisted that NI would leave the customs union:

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-44202832

Meanwhile, Paisley Jnr has likened Brexit to pregnancy, that you can't have half measures!

Northern Ireland Secretary Karen Bradley maintained there would be no new physical infrastructure, no customs union and no sea border - but didn't explain how the Irish frontier will be kept open.

This is just nuts, Karen supports Max Fac but has ruled out cameras, and other physical infrastructure.


Even if putting GPS trackers on trucks was a viable solution (and it isn't) then how do you keep people honest ? You can buy GPS jammers on ebay. Back in the day the IRA used to smuggle and launder fuel and them boys had access to people who knew a thing or two about electronics.


Anyone remember the film Eat The Peach ? which was based on a true story for a short clip on smuggling go to 48:37 and 50:00 for a longer one

To assume there wouldn't be much smuggling under Maximum Facilitation ignores the evidence that there was smuggling when at a time when not stopping at a check point could result in being fired upon by some of the 27,000 troops.

Thargor

Bit of a long read but a fine example of what complete and utter liars people like Reese-Mogg are, literally everything out of his mouth is twisted in some way:

http://politics.co.uk/blogs/2018/05/21/what-one-piece-of-jacob-rees-mogg-nonsense-tells-us-about-br

Thats who the bookies have as their next Prime Minister!

https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-prime-minister

joeysoap

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Anyone remember the film Eat The Peach ? which was based on a true story for a short clip on smuggling go to 48:37 and 50:00 for a longer one

This was real

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/crime-and-law/seized-fuel-tanker-stolen-from-dundalk-barracks-1.1407609

An Ciarraioch

Alliance, NI Greens, SDLP and SF issue a joint Brexit statement:

https://sluggerotoole.com/2018/05/22/four-parties-issue-a-joint-statement-on-brexit/

Surely the UUP could regain some ground by standing on a Single Market platform?

Meanwhile, Gove says on Radio 4 that the yet to be agreed backstop should be time-limited, which rather defeats the purpose of it.

An Ciarraioch

EU to start free trade talks with Australia and New Zealand within weeks:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/may/22/eu-trade-talks-australia-new-zealand-brexit-commonwealth

An Ciarraioch

Meanwhile, Juncker can't resist a little salt!

https://mobile.twitter.com/JunckerEU/status/998843474953859072

ancapailldorcha

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

EU to start free trade talks with Australia and New Zealand within weeks:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/may/22/eu-trade-talks-australia-new-zealand-brexit-commonwealth

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Meanwhile, Juncker can't resist a little salt!

https://mobile.twitter.com/JunckerEU/status/998843474953859072

Phenomenal news but I wonder if anyone in the government (Cameron or May) knew about this before the referendum and just decided to run with the narrative of the EU being a protectionist bloc regardless.

It is a shame for the UK as the EU's higher clout and negotiating experience will likely secure it a better deal than the UK would be able to obtain by itself.

Leroy42

The likes of Aus and NZ must be licking their lips. They know both the EU and the UK will be desperate to make a deal, if only to score over the other.

Brexit makes everyone in EU weaker

ancapailldorcha

I don't know. All EU27 and some regional Parliaments need to approve. Remember CETA and the Walloonians.

Nody

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Phenomenal news but I wonder if anyone in the government (Cameron or May) knew about this before the referendum and just decided to run with the narrative of the EU being a protectionist bloc regardless.

It is a shame for the UK as the EU's higher clout and negotiating experience will likely secure it a better deal than the UK would be able to obtain by itself.

They did; it was announced back in 2015 for pre-approval to get the ball rolling; all they done is accelerate the discussions driven more by Trump than Brexit I'd say.

First Up

Leroy42 wrote: »

The likes of Aus and NZ must be licking their lips. They know both the EU and the UK will be desperate to make a deal, if only to score over the other.

Brexit makes everyone in EU weaker

The EU has been working on a free trade agreement with Australia for more than three years and is already 90% on the way there. The UK can now negotiate its own and we'll see how they get on.

Trade consists largely of commodities from Australia and manufactures from the EU/UK so there is a fair bit of mutual interest. The EU is Australia's second largest market (after China) whereas Australia takes less than 2% of EU exports - less than 1% of German exports.

"Desperate"?

LeinsterDub

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I don't know. All EU27 and some regional Parliaments need to approve. Remember CETA and the Walloonians.

Yeah it's not like the UK has any issues with regions or regional parliaments in open revolt

An Ciarraioch

Meanwhile, Barnier bluntly concurs with our government on the ideal Brexit outcome:

https://mobile.twitter.com/nick_gutteridge/status/998925860475473920

Kermit.de.frog

UK Independent front page tomorrow says the EU has flat out rejected Theresa May's customs plans.

LeinsterDub

British households are more than £900 worse off after the vote to leave the EU, according to the governor of the Bank of England, in comments that risk a renewed confrontation with senior Brexit supporters in the government.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/may/22/brexit-vote-cost-uk-mark-carney-bank-of-england

For many households this is a significant amount and they make up a significant proportion of the Brexit vote too

An Claidheamh

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

UK Independent front page tomorrow says the EU has flat out rejected Theresa May's customs plans.

I for one am happy.

All it was doing was kicking it down the road.
Then who's to know if the British government would try to wriggle out of the deal when the spotlight is no longer on them.

Or indeed a change in leadership would tear it up.

Sea border or no Brexit.

An Ciarraioch

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

UK Independent front page tomorrow says the EU has flat out rejected Theresa May's customs plans.

Article here:

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-northern-ireland-border-customs-backstop-time-limited-theresa-may-eu-michel-barnier-a8363996.html?amp&utm_campaign=Echobox&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter&__twitter_impression=true

Leroy42

Britain will be legally bound to pay its £39bn Brexit ‘divorce bill’ before the details of a future EU trade deal are agreed, a minister has admitted.

MPs will be asked to authorise the payment when they vote on the withdrawal deal in the autumn, Suella Braverman said – but there will be no trade treaty until after the UK leaves the EU next year.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-divorce-bill-uk-pay-eu-trade-deal-talks-david-davis-suella-braverman-a8364841.html

This is the same person who claimed prior to the vote that no payment would be needed and in fact UK would be getting a windfall! (she recently got married and changed her surname)

https://twitter.com/bbcquestiontime/status/850110198752591872

This is on top of the recent statement by the Bank of England that average family income is down £900 on their forecasts. Now of course the first cry from the Brexit side was that forecast are useless, but all the BoE forecast have always been claimed to be to pessimistic, so really they are saying the gap is even wide. They haven't even left yet!

Seth Brundle

Another article on a Tory's disinterest in their role...

Immigration minister admits she has not read all of Good Friday Agreement or visited Irish border

An immigration minister has admitted she has never read the Good Friday Agreement in full or visited the Irish border during a grilling by MPs.

Caroline Nokes confessed that she had not read any Irish history "in a very long time" and she was "probably giving birth" when the historic agreement was signed 20 years ago, during an appearance before the Northern Ireland Affairs Committee.

Citizens can identify legally as British, Irish or both under the Good Friday Agreement but MPs have raised concerns over an "anomaly" where those born in the Republic of Ireland but have lived north of the border all their lives can struggle to get a British passport.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/immigration-minister-good-friday-agreement-irish-border-caroline-nokes-a8363766.html

J Mysterio

"I'll Never Trust the English Again" - Guardian article on Windrush scandal.

This is just symptomatic of the awful culture in the UK government and the atmosphere which has brought us Brexit.

May apologises but she doesnt mean it. Its her policies as Home Secretary which have led to this. Did she order the landing cards destroyed? She is a horrible person and (surely) the worst ever UK PM.

Its not just Windrush either, its EU citizens - among others - who have been getting horrible, threatening letters for years.

The UK is eating itself alive and is in a horrible state currently, preparing to drop off the cliff.

An Ciarraioch

A van driver rings LBC (London) to highlight the paperwork that would be required if UK leaves the CU, based on Swiss experiences:

https://www.lbc.co.uk/radio/presenters/james-obrien/the-van-driver-being-put-out-of-business-by-brexit/

J Mysterio

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

A van driver rings LBC (London) to highlight the paperwork that would be required if UK leaves the CU, based on Swiss experiences:

https://www.lbc.co.uk/radio/presenters/james-obrien/the-van-driver-being-put-out-of-business-by-brexit/

Great find. Says it all really.

An Ciarraioch

HMRC estimate potential "max fac" cost of £20 billion:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2018/may/23/pmqs-theresa-may-jeremy-corbyn-gove-ministers-accused-of-putting-country-in-jeopardy-through-cabinet-infighting-politics-live

J Mysterio

Ex-mayor of Ipswich denied citizenship after almost 40 years in UK

A former mayor of Ipswich, who has lived in the UK since 1979, has been denied UK citizenship.

Inga Lockington, who has been a Liberal Democrat councillor for 19 years and served as mayor in 2007, moved to the UK from Denmark in 1979, when she married her British husband, Tim.

She was given indefinite leave to remain, which was stamped in her passport at the time.

Following the EU referendum, Lockington decided to apply for UK citizenship, a decision that was also influenced by changes to Danish law that meant she wouldn’t lose her Danish citizenship if she became a naturalised Briton.

The Home Office rejected her application, which cost her £1,282, at the end of January on the basis it “cannot be satisfied” that she was permanently a resident in the UK.

J Mysterio

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

HMRC estimate potential "max fac" cost of £20 billion:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2018/may/23/pmqs-theresa-may-jeremy-corbyn-gove-ministers-accused-of-putting-country-in-jeopardy-through-cabinet-infighting-politics-live

Political Editor of the Financial Times' comments:

"Brexit just got crazier. Head of HMRC warns that the so-called "max fac" customs proposal being studied by the cabinet would cost business £17bn-£20bn a year. That is about double the UK's annual net contribution to the EU. So why are they even considering it?"

https://mobile.twitter.com/GeorgeWParker/status/999308024023011333?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

An Ciarraioch

Time to get the popcorn out, as the Lords amendments to the Withdrawal Bill, including those on the CU and EEA, return to the Commons next month:

https://mobile.twitter.com/faisalislam/status/999333486057148416

https://mobile.twitter.com/faisalislam/status/999336031718690817

An Ciarraioch

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

A van driver rings LBC (London) to highlight the paperwork that would be required if UK leaves the CU, based on Swiss experiences:

https://www.lbc.co.uk/radio/presenters/james-obrien/the-van-driver-being-put-out-of-business-by-brexit/

A very sad reality that most of us seen coming.

J Mysterio wrote: »

Ex-mayor of Ipswich denied citizenship after almost 40 years in UK

Just a shlt show. We've lived through horrible things, and while this isn't one by definition, it will go down in the history books as the most misguided and comically idiotic acts of nationalistic self-harm of modern times.

EdgeCase

Leroy42 wrote: »

The likes of Aus and NZ must be licking their lips. They know both the EU and the UK will be desperate to make a deal, if only to score over the other.

Brexit makes everyone in EU weaker

I certainly wouldn't consider a vast market like the EU desperate to make a deal with anyone. With or without the UK, it is an absolutely huge and very self-contained economy, much like the United States. They are the only two giant, mixed economies of their type in the world.

It would be mildly useful for the EU to have access to Australian commodities, and the Australian business-to-business / industrial and consumer market is mildly interesting (it's not all that big). It doesn't necessarily mean that the EU needs to grant a bilateral trade deal on favourable terms though. Australia and NZ would like access to the EU market far more than we need access to theirs.

New Zealand is a mixed bag and could be seen as a direct competitor to EU agricultural economies, particularly the likes France, Ireland, Denmark, etc and those agricultural lobbies in Europe are very strong, so I'm not even sure that it's all that advantageous to us at all to have a tarriff-free trade deal with them. It's hugely advantageous to New Zealand though.

So, I really don't see any 'desperation' on behalf of the EU.

The UK is absolutely desperate to prove that it still has trade possibilities, just to prove a point really. So, if anything it could go off in a big panic to try and sign all sorts of poorly conceived trade deals, concluded in a rush. The EU doesn't really have to do anything in particular. Most of these trade negotiations predate Brexit by several years.

The reality is that the likes of the EU or the US are on a whole other level of economy and can more or less trade with themselves and reasonably expect an orderly queue of countries looking for trade deal access, the UK really can't operate on that kind of scale. It's just not big enough.

The UK still largely isn't understanding that it isn't negotiating with another medium sized country. It's negotiating with one of the world's two largest, most diverse and developed economies.

J Mysterio

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Time to get the popcorn out, as the Lords amendments to the Withdrawal Bill, including those on the CU and EEA, return to the Commons next month:

https://mobile.twitter.com/faisalislam/status/999333486057148416

https://mobile.twitter.com/faisalislam/status/999336031718690817

Pressure will build between now and then. The government will be defeated on a number of these votes, and May will resign. She has to.

briany

J Mysterio wrote: »

Pressure will build between now and then. The government will be defeated on a number of these votes, and May will resign. She has to.

I've heard that the UK government/PM won't last beyond (date) since their last GE. At this point I'm just seeing what happens.

But supposing May does go - what follows? Who follows? Is it any good that she goes only to be replaced by someone more hard line about Brexit?

flatty

Nothing makes sense anymore. Britain had the misfortune to have awful leaders, awful opposition, and awful media tycoons all in a row. I cannot see how this will go. The Brexit wing of the Tory party are looking more deranged by the day, but there are some very clever, very wealthy, and very selfish people manipulating them. Corbyn seems unelectable in truth, and that is before The Sun has got properly stuck into him. It needs the civil service to sacrifice themselves and go public, but to whom? The guardian readers are by and large already left of centre liberal and pro EU, so it wouldn't be news to them, the BBC have abrogated all responsibility, and the other major players are controlled by pro Brexit oligarchs. Unless there is some kind of youth led revolt, a la poll tax, I can only see a hard Brexit under anyone. Triggering article 50 was a piece of self important fluff which has left may standing on a landmine. I have no sympathy for her, only contempt,but neither she nor her class will suffer the crime wave which will follow this self induced recession.

listermint

Watching an inside the EU program on channel 4.

Have ukip ever actually brought anything from their constituents to the EU parliament, ie have they ever proposed anything worthwhile for those that voted for them or are they actually the complete morons that just turn up to shout down others and act the bollix like they come across in the program.

J Mysterio

briany wrote: »

I've heard that the UK government/PM won't last beyond (date) since their last GE. At this point I'm just seeing what happens.

But supposing May does go - what follows? Who follows? Is it any good that she goes only to be replaced by someone more hard line about Brexit?

Yeah, I dont know why I'm even speculating to be honest. The whole train may come off the tracks at any time, and given what's happened in the last few years, anything is possible.

The amount of scandal and ineptitude we have witnessed has been astonishing though. I feel like some shocking event has transpired at least once a week for the last year. May has just trudged along from one thing to another. No plan, no leadership m, just vague aspirations and cheao soundbytes ("no deal is better than a bad deal"). Significantly though, there has been no coherent challenge to her for all this, spats with and within her cabinet aside.

I guess the reality is that no other person or group want to put themselves forward. No one has any real vision or proposals for Brexit, and no one wants the responsibility for it eiither; to 'deliver Brexit'. Or what Theresa Mays says is Brexit (Brexit means Brexit).

TM still doesnt know at this stage - they are always playing catch up with the reality of their situation - and she and her cabinet prefer to just argue in abstract terms, philosophise, drop soundbytes to the media and deliver vague 'political threats'.

The Tories have somehow managed to destroy the UK and ruin its international reputation in just a few short years.

EdgeCase

All the Brexiteers have to do is keep nudging this out until 30 March 2019. As it stands, there's a legal likelihood that Article 50 notice could simply be withdrawn by the UK through whatever internal decision making process it wishes : executive order, act of parliament or referendum.

However, once it goes beyond 30 March 2019, the UK has left the EU and there is no way of undoing that. Even if there were a massive change of heart, they would have to go through the whole accession process the same as anyone else.

So, from the Brexieers' perspective, they will want to simply filibuster and foot drag until that date and then any relationship with the EU is limited to that of a 3rd party.

So, if the remain side wants a rerun of the referendum, or any kind of rollback, it has to happen before 30th March next year, or it's basically pointless.

Given the track record to-date, it looks very possible that this will just go around and around on without any decisions until the date, and then there'll be a panic but it will simply be too late.

joeysoap

listermint wrote: »

Watching an inside the EU program on channel 4.

Have ukip ever actually brought anything from their constituents to the EU parliament, ie have they ever proposed anything worthwhile for those that voted for them or are they actually the complete morons that just turn up to shout down others and act the bollix like they come across in the program.

Enjoyed that program. UKIP are a real piece of work.

J Mysterio

It's almost already too late. And no one needs to filibuster as cabinet can't even agree policy!

You could say the Lords are filibustering maybe, but it's more like performing sanity checks and desperately attempting to stop own goals.

Capt'n Midnight

EdgeCase wrote: »

It would be mildly useful for the EU to have access to Australian commodities, and the Australian business-to-business / industrial and consumer market is mildly interesting (it's not all that big). It doesn't necessarily mean that the EU needs to grant a bilateral trade deal on favourable terms though. Australia and NZ would like access to the EU market far more than we need access to theirs.

to oversimplify it , they give us raw materials , we give the stuff , very little overlap so win-win.

Trump has trashed the Trans Pacific Partnership ( Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore, Vietnam, and United States ) So for those countries the big trade deal is the EU or China

The UK is absolutely desperate to prove that it still has trade possibilities, just to prove a point really. So, if anything it could go off in a big panic to try and sign all sorts of poorly conceived trade deals, concluded in a rush. The EU doesn't really have to do anything in particular. Most of these trade negotiations predate Brexit by several years.

New Zealand makes more selling it's meat on the continent than in the UK as they get a better price there. Brexit means splitting the quotas, so NZ gets a lower volume to sell in to the more profitable EU.

The UK still largely isn't understanding that it isn't negotiating with another medium sized country. It's negotiating with one of the world's two largest, most diverse and developed economies.

Three if you include China, but the UK vetoed EU anti steel dumping sanctions in order to allow China to sell cheap shoes into the UK. So China know they can tear them a new one in future trade deals.

Rain Ascending

Excellent speech from Sir Ivan Rogers, former UK Permanent Representative to the EU, given at the University of Glasgow yesterday, covering what he sees as the real choices open to the UK. Link here.


He gives a good insight into the Cameron position in the pre-referendum negotiations, but then really gets into his stride with a lethal dissection of the post-referendum strategy of the UK government, both in terms of its negotiations and its communications with the UK population. Along the way, he gives a very lucid explanation of how the Single Market really works and what are the real opportunities for the UK outside a customs union with the EU. (Answer: mainly limited to agriculture.) He also maps out the global situation regarding regulation and how a few trading blocks dominate. He finishes up with a much shorter discussion of the options around Northern Ireland.


It's well worth a read.


My own take is that it is nearly spot on. He misses some detail on occasion (e.g. the evolution from EU directives to EU direct regulation), but that's excusable -- the big themes are well portrayed. One could wish for a deeper analysis of the Norther Ireland border dilemma: he hints that one possible resolution is for the EU to relax a bit on Freedom of Movement to allow the UK to accept all the other elements of an EEA-like arrangement, thereby keeping the UK inside the Single Market. He takes as gospel the idea that a sea border is politically unacceptable -- I'm not so sure and this should have been teased out more.


It will be interesting to see whether or not the UK media pick this one up and run with it. Both the BBC and Telegraph are starting to cover it. A very welcome analysis after what has been, with only one or two exceptions, a month or two of dreadfully uninformed discourse within UK politics.

Cookie_Monster

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Trump has trashed the Trans Pacific Partnership ( Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore, Vietnam, and United States ) So for those countries the big trade deal is the EU or China

TPP is signed, done and enacted. just not with the US, every other nation is still involved though, now called CPAfTFF

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comprehensive_and_Progressive_Agreement_for_Trans-Pacific_Partnership

Peregrinus

Cookie_Monster wrote: »

TPP is signed, done and enacted. just not with the US, every other nation is still involved though, now called CPAfTFF

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comprehensive_and_Progressive_Agreement_for_Trans-Pacific_Partnership

Yes, but . . .

(a) All of the countries involved are bitterly disappointed that the US has withdrawn, and the deal is as a result less beneficial than they had hoped. "Trashed" is maybe too strong a word, but Trump's stance has been damaging.

(b) It remains true that the major deals these countries will now pursue are with the EU and China (and, realistically, with the EU, since China is not much of one for your trade deals). They are not going to waste time and effort negotiating further with the US while Trump is still around. And the UK is much too small, and much too far away, to be of remotely comparable interest.

Rain Ascending

Rain Ascending wrote: »

Excellent speech from Sir Ivan Rogers, former UK Permanent Representative to the EU, given at the University of Glasgow yesterday...

Very interesting read. Took an hour and a half but I definitely have a better understanding of some key issues now.