Brexit discussion thread III

Itssoeasy

Is Simon coveney having an exam on morning Ireland ? How many times can he be asked the same thing ?

Peregrinus

steddyeddy wrote: »

It's still a hard Brexit if they're out of the single market. Regulatory alignment just means an alignment of regulations not trading tariffs.

No. Read more carefully:

"The United Kingdom remains committed to protecting North-South cooperation and to its guarantee of avoiding a hard border. Any future arrangements must be compatible with these overarching requirements."

[The UK is on record as guaranteeing the avoidance of a hard border. And "any future arrangements" (read: an EU/UK trade deal) must be compatible. In other words, the UK accepts that there will be no EU/UK trade deal unless it is compatible with no hard border.]

"The United Kingdom's intention is to achieve these objectives through the overall EU-UK relationship."

[Read: we want a trade deal that delivers an open border.]

"Should this not be possible, the United Kingdom will propose specific solutions to address the unique circumstances of the island of Ireland. In the absence of agreed solutions, the United Kingdom will maintain full alignment with those rules of the Internal Market and the Customs Union which, now or in the future, support North-South cooperation, the all-island economy and the protection of the 1998 Agreement."

[If we fail to negotiate a trade deal that delivers an open border, we will still maintain regulatory alignment with SM/CU rules which support North-South cooperation, the all-island economy and the GFA.]

The short version of this:

1. If the UK wants an EU trade deal (and, hint, they really, really do want one) then they understand and agree that the only feasible trade deal will be one which is compatible with an open border in Ireland.

2. Even if they are not geting an EU trade deal (e.g. because they cannot reach agreement on other points, or they change their mind and decide they don't want one after all) they still agree that they will maintain full alignment with both SM and CU rules supporting North-South cooperation, the all-island economy and the GFA. This means, among other things, that they have less incentive to give up on a trade deal because they dislike the degree of regulatory alignment it demands; even if they give up on it, they are still committed to a fairly high degree of regulatory alignment.

Itssoeasy

Today is the feast of the immaculate conception in the Catholic Church. If I could think of a funny way to link this to the agreement but I can't right now.

murphaph

Can May sell this to her own Eurosceptic MPs is the real question?

Call me Al

I can't see rhat what Arlene Foster says above matches what is in that section above. It seems to be at odds. It will be interesting to hear how the DUP pitch this in the media today.
I wonder what has changed between the two texts and if this whole palaver of Arlene' s intervention was all just for the benefit of her own pool of voters.
Is it that T&Cs of the border apply to the whole of the UK?

A serious outcome for any rational UK residents.

A very problematic set of guarantees for the hung ho brexiteers though

Itssoeasy

https://twitter.com/thejournal_ie/status/939034381145931776

The DUP getting a dig at Sinn Fein. As demanded by Sinn Fein it says. You'd swear the DUP demanded nothing.

Peregrinus

Call me Al wrote: »

I can't see rhat what Arlene Foster says above matches what is in that section above. It seems to be at odds. It will be interesting to hear how the DUP pitch this in the media today.
I wonder what has changed between the two texts and if this whole palaver of Arlene' s intervention was all just for the benefit of her own pool of voters.

Have a look at para 45:

"The United Kingdom respects Ireland's ongoing membership of the European Union and all of the corresponding rights and obligations that entails, in particular Ireland's place in the Internal Market and the Customs Union. The United Kingdom also recalls its commitment to preserving the integrity of its internal market and Northern Ireland's place within it, as the United Kingdom leaves the European Union's Internal Market and Customs Union."

I'm going to guess that the second sentence of that para is new, and was inserted to keep Arlene happy. I have two reasons for thinking this:

1. On the face of it, it has no place in the document. The UK's internal arrangements, domestic constitution, etc, are a matter for the UK alone; they are no business of the EU's, and the EU would be scrupulous about respecting this principle. So the EU would never ask for this provision, nor take any particular comfort from it. If anything, they'd be a bit uncomfortable with it. So this has been inserted to placate someone in the UK. And who might that be?

2. Arlene has tweeted that the DUP have obtained "very clear confirmation that the entirety of the UK is leaving the single market and the customs union". Strictly speaking that's not correct. Nothing in the document confirms that the UK will leave, but this is the only provision that even acknowledges that it will leave, so this is the provision that Arlene must be talking about.

Arthur Daley

Time to face up to it. Increasingly looking like the British are not being allowed to leave the EU. Do people belive that a comprehensive deal will be struck in the next 14 months when if took weeks to get to this fudge this morning. The pressure that forced Cameron into the referendum and then forced him out, will not buy into these developments, and it's hard to see how they survive 2018 without an election.

steddyeddy

Peregrinus wrote: »

No. Read more carefully:

"The United Kingdom remains committed to protecting North-South cooperation and to its guarantee of avoiding a hard border. Any future arrangements must be compatible with these overarching requirements."

[The UK is on record as guaranteeing the avoidance of a hard border. And "any future arrangements" (read: an EU/UK trade deal) must be compatible. In other words, the UK accepts that there will be no EU/UK trade deal unless it is compatible with no hard border.]

"The United Kingdom's intention is to achieve these objectives through the overall EU-UK relationship."

[Read: we want a trade deal that delivers an open border.]

"Should this not be possible, the United Kingdom will propose specific solutions to address the unique circumstances of the island of Ireland. In the absence of agreed solutions, the United Kingdom will maintain full alignment with those rules of the Internal Market and the Customs Union which, now or in the future, support North-South cooperation, the all-island economy and the protection of the 1998 Agreement."

[If we fail to negotiate a trade deal that delivers an open border, we will still maintain regulatory alignment with SM/CU rules which support North-South cooperation, the all-island economy and the GFA.]

The short version of this:

1. If the UK wants an EU trade deal (and, hint, they really, really do want one) then they understand and agree that the only feasible trade deal will be one which is compatible with an open border in Ireland.

2. Even if they are not geting an EU trade deal (e.g. because they cannot reach agreement on other points, or they change their mind and decide they don't want one after all) they still agree that they will maintain full alignment with both SM and CU rules supporting North-South cooperation, the all-island economy and the GFA. This means, among other things, that they have less incentive to give up on a trade deal because they dislike the degree of regulatory alignment it demands; even if they give up on it, they are still committed to a fairly high degree of regulatory alignment.

Again P, we'll agree to disagree. Regulatory alignment does not equal staying in the same market. It doesn't have to mean full regulatory alignment.

If I had to guess it would mean some regulatory alignment between Britain and the EU with greater alignment between NI and the EU.

I'm still hoping for staying in the single market but I remain sceptical.

flaneur

They’re allowed to do whatever they want.
The consequences of leaving however are real and they’re not just politics.

They'll definitely be allowed to leave. Definitely.

Just not whilst taking the foundations out with them.

They could leave as article 50 implies, but honestly that would be a disaster for the UK. Flights grounded, ports logjammed etc.

They are trying to find a middle ground, but the truth is that almost all ways 'out' are more like the article 50 process than the 'nothing changes on day 1' that they promised.

Peregrinus

Arthur Daley wrote: »

Time to face up to it. Increasingly looking like the British are not being allowed to leave the EU.

The UK is always allowed to leave. There is nothing, absolutely nothing, that the UK can do to stop the UK opting for hard Brexit, if they want, and nothing in this document would or could prevent them from doing that.

Nor does this document require them to opt for hard Brexit. It offers them the possiblity of a different, softer Brexit, but it's still a Brexit.

Vronsky

Itssoeasy wrote: »

https://twitter.com/thejournal_ie/status/939034381145931776

The DUP getting a dig at Sinn Fein. As demanded by Sinn Fein it says. You'd swear the DUP demanded nothing.

On the face of it, all those concessions are internal issues really for the UK. If they are not compatible with whatever outcome, the UK is not going to be hauled over the coals by IRL or EU for braking them.

Once the UK govt can dispense with the DUP, the commitments will be dispensed with should they prove too troublesome

Arthur Daley

As things have developed I just see years of filibuster and fudge, with domestic political chaos in the UK. So in essence little real change, with a lot of disillusioned leave voters who will draw their own conclusions that Europe has pulled the wool over their eyes once again.

cml387

I would guess the most disappointed people this morning are the headbangers...IDS,Redwood etc. All this kow-towing to Dublin and Brussels, pieces of paper , peace in our times etc.. It all feeds into their belief that Britain should just walk away.

And if these are the compromises required just to get on to trade talks, what other grubby compromises are going to be needed in the months to come.

Peregrinus

steddyeddy wrote: »

Again P, we'll agree to disagree. Regulatory alignment does not equal staying in the same market. It doesn't have to mean full regulatory alignment.

If I had to guess it would mean some regulatory alignment between Britain and the EU with greater alignment between NI and the EU.

I'm still hoping for staying in the single market but I remain sceptical.

I'd like them to stay in the single market and the customs union, but I doubt they will. May having committed herself to leaving both cannot now openly climb down. The most she can do is to target (a) leaving, but (b) maintaining a degree of regulatory alignment that in many respects looks quite like being in. But for face-saving reasons, if for no other, it can't actually be called being in, and it can't look exactly like being in. There have to be some differences.

(And, NB, I would have said exactly the same if the agreement had been signed last Monday as intended, without the DUP's hissy fit. I don't think the DUP has achieved any material change on this point, or that they particularly wanted to.)

The only way in which the UK formally stays in the CU/SM is if there's a change of government, and the new government is unconstrained by the commitments May has taken. That's clearly the direction in which Keir Starmer would like to take the Labour Party, and God bless him. But I don't know how politically realistic it is to think that all the dominoes would fall in precisely the right way for this to come pass.

flaneur

The next question is can Theresa May deliver this deal domestically.
There’s still every risk that it could be turn to chaos at Westminster.

FrancieBrady

flaneur wrote: »

The next question is can Theresa May deliver this deal domestically.
There’s still every risk that it could be turn to chaos at Westminster.

That is next weeks and your xmas entertainment flaneur. Getting used to these political cliffhangers now.

I cannot see how this is going to last. I cannot see how they are going to negotiate their way through trade talks either.

Vronsky

flaneur wrote: »

The next question is can Theresa May deliver this deal domestically.
There’s still every risk that it could be turn to chaos at Westminster.

Going by the comments on the Telegraph, there is a distinct possibility that she might not last today.

Peregrinus

Vronsky wrote: »

On the face of it, all those concessions are internal issues really for the UK. If they are not compatible with whatever outcome, the UK is not going to be hauled over the coals by IRL or EU for braking them.

Once the UK govt can dispense with the DUP, the commitments will be dispensed with should they prove too troublesome

There is a certain irony in the notion that the DUP, committed to Brexit and to taking back sovereignty from Brussels, feels that it's constitutional position within the UK is vulnerable if not guaranteed by commitments made by the UK to the EU.

kowtow

flaneur wrote:

The next question is can Theresa May deliver this deal domestically. There’s still every risk that it could be turn to chaos at Westminster.

I think she'll be able to claim this as a bit of a victory.

Nothing in there which will upset the brexiteers too much. Monday's media storm and the DUP tantrum gave a pressure relief valve for all the extreme positions, including the mayor of London.

Enzokk

steddyeddy wrote: »

Again P, we'll agree to disagree. Regulatory alignment does not equal staying in the same market. It doesn't have to mean full regulatory alignment.

If I had to guess it would mean some regulatory alignment between Britain and the EU with greater alignment between NI and the EU.

I'm still hoping for staying in the single market but I remain sceptical.

Well if you think about it if the UK regulations are stricter than the EU regulations (which they themselves decide, so absolutely no chlorine washed chicken), then you could argue that its not the same and in that way the UK isn't part of the customs union or single market. But due to their regulations being of a standard that allows them access to the CU and SM it will allow them to do trade with the EU.

The EU will still set the standards that the UK will need to comply with. This will be a sticking point, not for the DUP, but for her euro skeptic wing in Theresa May's party. I think the only way this gets through is if Labour/SNP helps her get this through. She will not get this through her own party, even with the DUP votes.

Enzokk

kowtow wrote: »

I think she'll be able to claim this as a bit of a victory.

Nothing in there which will upset the brexiteers too much. Monday's media storm and the DUP tantrum gave a pressure relief valve for all the extreme positions, including the mayor of London.

How about the ability to negotiate their own trade deals? They will have EU rules and regulations, no matter how you like to call it. The likes of Redwood and JRM are not stupid and they will see this for what it is, a fudge that they don't want. The battle is now once again an internal Tory battle and the DUP is once again on the sidelines.

flaneur

The headline in The Express is remarkably calm! I was expecting fire and brimstone.

An Ciarraioch

And that line about no barriers either North-South or West-East at least implies a bespoke customs union.

Rjd2

Vronsky wrote: »

Going by the comments on the Telegraph, there is a distinct possibility that she might not last today.

She will more than certainly last the day. The majority of the party will be happy enough and the brexiters won't want to collapse the government just yet.

Peregrinus

Enzokk wrote: »

How about the ability to negotiate their own trade deals? They will have EU rules and regulations, no matter how you like to call it. The likes of Redwood and JRM are not stupid and they will see this for what it is, a fudge that they don't want. The battle is now once again an internal Tory battle and the DUP is once again on the sidelines.

She's only Prime Minister as long as she's leader of the Tory party, and she's only leader of the Tory party as long as she commands the support of the parliamentary party. The DUP and others can't help her there.

My guess is that the dyed-in-the-wool europhobes in her party are a minority, but a very vocal one. She needs to assert her authority and keep them in line, or her position will be undermined, and there's still a very real possiblity that she could fall because she is seen to be unable to control or lead her own party effectively. But for now I think she's safe. Having moved on to phase 2 on any terms at all is a win for her.

flaneur

It was interesting Arleen Foster talked about there being insufficient time and that May had gone to Brussels “in the national interest”.

Christy42

kowtow wrote: »

I think she'll be able to claim this as a bit of a victory.

Nothing in there which will upset the brexiteers too much. Monday's media storm and the DUP tantrum gave a pressure relief valve for all the extreme positions, including the mayor of London.

Doubtful. It really looks like the UK will be taking orders from the EU on regulations. It will have some wiggle room but mostly just to make stricter regulations which it won't.

They may get control of who they allow work in the UK but again who they let live in the UK (and get illegal under the counter jobs effectively) will be mostly decided by the EU.

It also hampers their ability to make trade agreements. I just hope it does not end up being the single market in all but name. If they want that it has to be the single market imo.

flaneur

For two years.

This is largely a kicking the can down the road exercise as article 50 is far too short a period to realistically do all of this.

Peregrinus

Enzokk wrote: »

How about the ability to negotiate their own trade deals? They will have EU rules and regulations, no matter how you like to call it. The likes of Redwood and JRM are not stupid and they will see this for what it is, a fudge that they don't want. The battle is now once again an internal Tory battle and the DUP is once again on the sidelines.

Their ability to negotiate their own trade deals is signficantly limited by the commitments they have given her, though exactly how limited remains to be seen. It will depend on how the commitments play out in detail in the terms of their continuing relationship with the EU.

But the more thinking Brexiters have long understood that the ability to negotiate their own trade deals always had limited real value, and was always something that it would be in the UK's interests to sacrifice in exchange for a good trading relationship with the EU, which would be of far more benefit to them than anything they might negotiate with third countries.

You're quite right about the likes of Redwood. But he, and the tradition he represents, have always been fairly marginal in Toryism. He ran twice for the leadership in the 1990s, and was very much an also-ran in both contests.

cml387

flaneur wrote: »

The headline in The Express is remarkably calm! I was expecting fire and brimstone.

It's been a feature of the week that the most fervent Brexit supporting tabloids (Sun, Mail and Express if you can call the Express a newspaper ) have mostly relegated the developments to inside pages. It's a case of not wanting to confuse their readers with the facts.

Enzokk

Christy42 wrote: »

Doubtful. It really looks like the UK will be taking orders from the EU on regulations. It will have some wiggle room but mostly just to make stricter regulations which it won't.

They may get control of who they allow work in the UK but again who they let live in the UK (and get illegal under the counter jobs effectively) will be mostly decided by the EU.

It also hampers their ability to make trade agreements. I just hope it does not end up being the single market in all but name. If they want that it has to be the single market imo.

Seems to me that there will be a customs union between the UK and the EU. This will however not be the same as the EU customs union, but it will be a customs union that mirrors the EU customs union.

FrancieBrady

Leo channeling Churchill.
'This is not the end, but the end of the beginning'.

flaneur

Rjd2 wrote: »

She will more than certainly last the day. The majority of the party will be happy enough and the brexiters won't want to collapse the government just yet.

Many of them would probably see the EU as preferable to short cutting to 5 years of neoCorbynism as opposed to neoconservatism.

I’d say Corbyn is a useful bogeyman for May.

realdanbreen

flaneur wrote: »

It was interesting Arleen Foster talked about there being insufficient time and that May had gone to Brussels “in the national interest”.

Foster has had her day in the Sun-last Monday. The Tory's will never again allow her little bunch hold them over a barrel.

Peregrinus

And so we move on to the next row.

Donald Tusk say that now its time to discuss (among other things) the terms of the transitional/implementation period and he suggests that these should include requirement that, during the transition period:

- the UK will respect the whole of EU law, including new law;

- the UK will respect budgetary commitments;

- the UK will respect judicial oversight by the ECJ;

- the UK will ("of course") respect all the related obligations;

- "Clearly, within the transition period following the UK’s withdrawal, EU decision-making will continue among the 27 member states, without the UK".

Peregrinus

realdanbreen wrote: »

Foster has had her day in the Sun-last Monday. The Tory's will never again allow her little bunch hold them over a barrel.

Until the next election, the Tories don't have a huge amount of choice about this, do they?

Vronsky

Rjd2 wrote: »

She will more than certainly last the day. The majority of the party will be happy enough and the brexiters won't want to collapse the government just yet.

There is already a letter out there with several signatures. Ok maybe I was being somewhat facetious suggesting she would be out today.

I cannot see how the lunatic wing of the Tory party will be happy with staying inside the SM and CU in all but name, the continuing influence of the ECJ, enhanced rights for EU citizens over UK ones in some areas.

flaneur

realdanbreen wrote: »

Foster has had her day in the Sun-last Monday. The Tory's will never again allow her little bunch hold them over a barrel.

You’d also wonder if the DUP is getting a lot of pressure at home from the farming and business community. I see no evidence of their stance being supported by the vast majority of NI people, other than hardline unionists. Most of Northern Ireland is fairly pragmatic and I would hope this episode causes mainstream unionists to look a bit more carefully at what they're doing for.

realdanbreen

Just heard the Taoiseach 'reassuring' the unionists. Why? You won't hear the DUP being polite towards the Republic. Those dinosauers/ bigots should be marginalised not soft soaped.

flaneur

realdanbreen wrote: »

Just heard the Taoiseach 'reassuring' the unionists. Why? You won't hear the DUP being polite towards the Republic. Those dinosauers/ bigots should be marginalised not soft soaped.

Because the Taoiseach is a mainstream, pragmatic, sensible kind of political figure and the DUP are divisive hardliners?

Rjd2

flaneur wrote: »

Many of them would probably see the EU as preferable to short cutting to 5 years of neoCorbynism as opposed to neoconservatism.

I’d say Corbyn is a useful bogeyman for May.

Aye they went from laughing to Jez to been terrified of him. Plenty of the parry still annoyed they lost the majority for an election that did not need to be called.

Gove seems happy enough and he is one of the senior leavers.

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/939045649621901312

Gove claims Theresa May 'won' - agreement most definitely has compromises on both sides, and don't forget, UK promise to pay many, many, many billions as we leave

More
Senior Brexiteer tells me 'it's not perfect, but it's enough, and they have listened'

Peregrinus

realdanbreen wrote: »

Just heard the Taoiseach 'reassuring' the unionists. Why? You won't hear the DUP being polite towards the Republic. Those dinosauers/ bigots should be marginalised not soft soaped.

His target audience is actually not the DUP and its supporters. It's people who hear that the DUP are alleging that this is all a secret Romish Republican plot, and who also need to hear, from a reasonable and believable source, that it isn't.

Vronsky

Peregrinus wrote: »

His target audience is actually not the DUP and its supporters. It's people who hear that the DUP are alleging that this is all a secret Romish Republican plot, and who also need to hear, from a reasonable and believable source, that it isn't.

Papist, I believe that's the term they use.

Itssoeasy

I see Leo varadkar is saying to the nationalists in the north that they will never be left behind by an Irish government. That sounds like jack lynch circa 1970.

realdanbreen

flaneur wrote: »

Because the Taoiseach is a mainstream, pragmatic, sensible kind of political figure and the DUP are divisive hardliners?

That's my point, 'divisive hardliners' should be marginalised not soft soaped.

Peregrinus

flaneur wrote: »

You’d also wonder if the DUP is getting a lot of pressure at home from the farming and business community. I see no evidence of their stance being supported by the vast majority of NI people, other than hardline unionists. Most of Northern Ireland is fairly pragmatic and I would hope this episode causes mainstream unionists to look a bit more carefully at what they're doing for.

The DUP has (at least) two wings, one of which, exemplified by Dodds, is a true-believing europhobic bunch and the other of which, exemplified by Foster, is somewhat eurosceptic but generally has bigger fish to fry.

And it's also worth remembering that the prominence and influence of the DUP is an artifact of the quaintly crapulous British electoral system. At the last election they got 36% of the NI vote - for every voter who plumped for the DUP, two voters chose saner alternatives. And it's a safe bet that not all of the 36% share Dodds's instincts about Europe.

Itssoeasy

Vronsky wrote: »

Papist, I believe that's the term they use.

And the pope himself couldn't alter the arrangement in the north so why does this fear tactic work ? The only people who can change the future of the north is the people of Northern Ireland. That's guaranteed.