Brexit discussion thread III

Zubeneschamali

EdgeCase wrote: »

This buffer zone thing makes absolutely no sense. You'd just be moving the NI border by 16km for no particular reason. The same problem occurs, just at a slightly different distance from the old border.

Perhaps he has in mind that cameras at the edge of the zone would not be at the border, so "Éire" can't object to internal UK infrastructure.

Or maybe it is just more noise from the Brexit camp.

Hurrache

So the 'real' border is moved inland by 10 miles, NI gets smaller, the Republic moves into the vacuum, they create another buffer zone, we move in again, and so on until we get unification before anyone realises. Genius.

Wanderer78

Hurrache wrote:

So the 'real' border is moved inland by 10 miles, NI gets smaller, the Republic moves into the vacuum, they create another buffer zone, we move in again, and so on until we get unification before anyone realises. Genius.

Or is this a utopian dream, which has the potential to become violent and destructive in reality?

Peregrinus

Nody wrote: »

Well reading the article in the sun it appears that UK basically wants to give 10 miles at the border back to Ireland ("Dubbed a ‘special economic zone’, it will be for local traders such as dairy farmers – who make up 90 per cent of the cross border traffic – and share the same trade rules as south of the border.") while the rest of NI would operate dual legislation set up of having both UK and EU rules on the books and the applicable law would be dependent to whom it is being shipped.

Both items will piss DUP off and I highly doubt EU would be very happy with imports arriving to NI according to UK rules only to have someone relable it as EU compliant and driving it over the border without controls.

SFAIK, this only works in Liechtenstein because there is a hard border between Leichtenstein and the EU. Thus non-compliant goods which circulate in Liechtenstein/Switzerland can be prevented from entering the EU.

The border is low-impact, because (a) there are only two crossing points, and (b) Liechtenstein exports practically no goods; the entire country is 62 square miles and contains only ten manufacturing companies. Liechtensteins exports are predominantly of services (banking, finance, insurance, tourism).

Obviously, a similar border to prevent non-compliant goods entering the EU from NI would not be low-impact.

There's no hard border between Liechtenstein and Switzerland. The Swiss are exposed to the risk of non-compliant goods (non-compliant with Swiss rules, that is) entering from Liechtenstein, but they manage this by swingeing fines on the importers of non-compliant goods via Liechtenstein. Policing this is made easier by the fact that the Leichtenstein-Austria border controls aren't operated by Liechtenstein, but by Switzerland, so the Swiss know about non-compliant goods entering Liechtenstein. And, for the reasons already noted, the volume of non-compliant goods produced in Liechtenstein itself is tiny.

It's hard to see how this maps on to NI. Or where a buffer zone would enter into it. If you're right in thinking that Davis is simply contemplating border checks being moved 16 km back from the border, the December Joint Report explicitly rules this out. Para 48 precludes not only physical infrastructure but "related checks and controls" . Border controls applied ten miles back from the border are still border controls.

Larbre34

Ireland should back the buffer zone if there is provision for duty free booze and fags and protection for 'cheap' power tools sold at car booters!

Leroy42

So what you are saying, Peregrinus, is that the Liechtenstein solution is the perfect solution, just not for NI.

flatty

Scotland will go ballistic if NI which voted to brexit is allowed to remain in the eu, whilst Scotland, which voted remain by a huge margin, is forced out by the english, the leader of whom has just applied for French residency.

Peregrinus

flatty wrote: »

Scotland will go ballistic in NI which voted to brexit is allowed to remain in the eu, whilst Scotland, which voted remain by a huge margin, is forced out by the english, the leader of whom has just applied for French residency.

I don't think Lord Lawson counts as England's "leader". He was never Prime Minister. He stopped being a cabinet minister 28 years ago. He left the House of Commons a quarter of a century ago.

flatty

Peregrinus wrote: »

flatty wrote: »

Scotland will go ballistic in NI which voted to brexit is allowed to remain in the eu, whilst Scotland, which voted remain by a huge margin, is forced out by the english, the leader of whom has just applied for French residency.

I don't think Lord Lawson counts as England's "leader". He was never Prime Minister. He stopped being a cabinet minister 28 years ago. He left the House of Commons a quarter of a century ago.

You know perfectly well what I mean.

Tropheus

flatty wrote: »

Scotland will go ballistic if NI which voted to brexit is allowed to remain in the eu, whilst Scotland, which voted remain by a huge margin, is forced out by the english, the leader of whom has just applied for French residency.

NI voted to remain also.

farmchoice

Call me Al wrote: »

Which crosses the DUP red lines....
So who blinks first?
Arlene brought the whole thing to a standstill and consequential fudge over a somewhat similar approach last Nov/Dec

if i was one for conspiracies i could see some value in this for the DUP. if NI were to lose 10 miles along the border including Derry and newry it would substantially increase the unionist majority in what remains.

basically partition lite to guarantee a unionist majority for the next 50 to 100 years.

the majority of the population along the border are nationalist and those unionists who do live there tend to be those with a small u as they are very used to dealing with the south and hopping over and back across the border every day.

Sam Russell

I think Davis missed a trick.

If he had said 60 miles of a buffer zone, only Ballycastle would be outside it. Thus it would be simple - NI remains in the CU SM buffer zone, but not the whole of NI. Customs post only required at the entry points - the ports and airports.

Problem solved.

Professor Moriarty

farmchoice wrote: »

if i was one for conspiracies i could see some value in this for the DUP. if NI were to lose 10 miles along the border including Derry and newry it would substantially increase the unionist majority in what remains.

basically partition lite to guarantee a unionist majority for the next 50 to 100 years.

the majority of the population along the border are nationalist and those unionists who do live there tend to be those with a small u as they are very used to dealing with the south and hopping over and back across the border every day.

I'm sure if such a harebrained piece of idiocy were ever put on the table, then those living in the no man's land called a buffer zone would demand dual citizenship and dual voting rights.

Peregrinus

farmchoice wrote: »

if i was one for conspiracies i could see some value in this for the DUP. if NI were to lose 10 miles along the border including Derry and newry it would substantially increase the unionist majority in what remains.

basically partition lite to guarantee a unionist majority for the next 50 to 100 years.

the majority of the population along the border are nationalist and those unionists who do live there tend to be those with a small u as they are very used to dealing with the south and hopping over and back across the border every day.

It's hardly "partition lite" if it involves ceding Derry (yes, that Derry) to the Republic. It also includes a significant chunk of the constituency represented by Arlene Foster (including Arlene's family home). Not lite at all.

Peregrinus

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

I'm sure if such a harebrained piece of idiocy were ever put on the table, then those living in the no man's land called a buffer zone would demand dual citizenship and dual voting rights.

They already have dual citizenship.

Professor Moriarty

Peregrinus wrote: »

They already have dual citizenship.

Indeed. That may not be assured in future though and my point centered on voting rights.

ancapailldorcha

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Indeed. That may not be assured in future though and my point centered on voting rights.

I found this little chart yesterday though I am not well versed in the relevant area of law so I can't account for its veracity:



Here is the Business Insider original link.

Professor Moriarty

Peregrinus wrote: »

It's hardly "partition lite" if it involves ceding Derry (yes, that Derry) to the Republic. It also includes a significant chunk of the constituency represented by Arlene Foster (including Arlene's family home). Not lite at all.

That would be an extremely interesting scenario. The optics and symbolism of Foster's family home ending up in the Republic would be hilarious. It's almost as if David Davis didn't think it through. Whether or which, it lets the DUP know exactly where they stand.

Peregrinus

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

That would be an extremely interesting scenario. The optics and symbolism of Foster's family home ending up in the Republic would be hilarious. It's almost as if David Davis didn't think it through. Whether or which, it lets the DUP know exactly where they stand.

In fairness, the proposal is not that the buffer zone would become part of the Republic. So far as I can make out from the deeply inadequate report in the Sun, the proposal is that this part of NI would be fully aligned with the EU as regards single market regulation, but not with Great Britain, whereas the rest of NI would be fully aligned with the EU and with Great Britain. But politically and constitutionally it would be fully a part of the UK.

Peregrinus

A more interesting question; why did somebody choose to give this bizarre idea a first airing in The Sun, of all newspapers? And why are the usual ultra-Brexity and Orange suspects not foaming at the mouth about it?

Last week's let's-run-it-up-the-flagpole-and-see-who-salutes idea that involved keeping the whole UK in the customs union for years also met with a surprisingly muted reaction.

It's almost as though they've been tipped off that some way-out ideas will be aired but don't take them seriously, they will not be pursued, it's all a smokescreen.

Professor Moriarty

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I found this little chart yesterday though I am not well versed in the relevant area of law so I can't account for its veracity:



Here is the Business Insider original link.

The article very much underpins the chart which is by ECAS who seem to be a professional NGO. What is clearly obvious from the chart and article is that the Turkey option would be the worst of both worlds and the Canada option would be a disaster as it excludes services. 80% of Britain's exports are services. Also any scenario, other than the status quo, means loss of voting rights.

Professor Moriarty

Peregrinus wrote: »

In fairness, the proposal is not that the buffer zone would become part of the Republic. So far as I can make out from the deeply inadequate report in the Sun, the proposal is that this part of NI would be fully aligned with the EU as regards single market regulation, but not with Great Britain, whereas the rest of NI would be fully aligned with the EU and with Great Britain. But politically and constitutionally it would be fully a part of the UK.

I wouldn't consider myself to be a stupid person but I can't figure out how that proposal will satisfy the GFA and the DUP. I would bet my house that this bizarre attempt at smoke and mirrors deception will be dismissed immediately.

trellheim

Watch for the DUP response, it will tell you if they are onside , and if they are, a fix is in and this is being back-channelled.


( A quick twitterscan shows

1. Arlene attending an orange parade in Fife
2. DUP threatening to throw toys out of pram if abortion brought in to NI )

all quiet....

Akrasia

Peregrinus wrote: »

Everyone's at a loss. Even the Brexit geeks who make a living out of explaining Brexity things in the media are all tweeting, basically, "WTF?"

Maybe the Sun just made made a total pig's ear out of explaining the propopsal - always possible - but, based on what the Sun said, this is totally unintelligible. If NI is remaining aligned to the EU, why is there a need for a border, never mind a ten-mile buffer zone next to the border? Why is it ten miles, rather than one mile or 100 miles? And what happens at the, um, margin between the buffer zone and the rest of NI? Another border? And how, exactly, does this eliminate the need for controls between NI, aligned to the EU, and GB, not aligned to the EU?

FFS, even by David Davis's standards, this is a low point.

It's hair brained and utterly incomprehensible. Was he drunk when he spoke to the Sun?

Seth Brundle

Akrasia wrote: »

It's hair brained and utterly incomprehensible. Was he drunk when he spoke to the Sun?

How is it any worse than all of the other Brexit proposals?

trellheim

t's hair brained and utterly incomprehensible. Was he drunk when he spoke to the Sun?

It may be a ball hop to flush out the long grass, its provocative enough thats for sure.

EdgeCase

The only thing I can possibly think is the DUP are going to have to face the reality that they represent the entirety of NI and that a status that is as close to the status quo as possible is the optimal solution that will avoid conflict and problems.

There’s no as advantage whatsoever to the unionist community to reopen old conflicts and there’s a huge risk to the Northern Irish economy, particularly agriculture and agribusinesses and even to manufacturing.

The EU *is* likely to grant NI special status because of the very unique circumstances there and it could be hugely advantageous to their economy and long term future to accept any offers like this.

It effectively could give Northern Ireland a dual identity and a bridge status between the EU and the UK which could be great for them.

Also, the Republic isn’t looking to “grab” NI anytime. If there’s ever any change of status we and they are both constitutionally bound to only ever do that with the full will of the people of both jurisdictions and their respective legislatures (assuming the northern one could be grown up enough to actually function) would have to propose such a change in the first place.

There’s no risk to the unionist community - just a world of opportunities in a very special status for NI.

They would be nuts not to take it!!

The reality on this island is a prosperous, progressive and secular republic that is looking towards the future and probably some kind of semi independent Northern Ireland that’s able to integrate as deeply as it wants to with both the republic and the UK.

They’re being offered the best of both world or a hard Brexit and I think that’s something that the DUP should let the public of NI decide if they’re incapable of seeing the bigger picture themselves.

They’re being presented a possibility of being able to straddle the bridge between two modern, progressive, prosperous Western European countries, one of which is in the EU and one which may not be, or being on the absolute periphery of the UK, outside the EU, probably with a major internal political conflict that we all know could end up violent and they’ll also be in the “others” category of British politics.

It’s not exactly an awful option they’re being presented with. Unionist and British culture, heritage and identities in NI actually have more chance of being respected and protected too.

trellheim

The only thing I can possibly think is the DUP are going to have to face the reality

I have no idea where you're going to find any evidence to support that particular supposition

Gerry T

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

I wouldn't consider myself to be a stupid person but I can't figure out how that proposal will satisfy the GFA and the DUP. I would bet my house that this bizarre attempt at smoke and mirrors deception will be dismissed immediately.

I think the EU, Barnier in particular will be wise enough to just ignore this press story. Hopefully if Leo or Simon are quizzed on this they just say they are waiting on the UK proposal and they don't wish to comment on some rambling in a UK newspaper (rag).

flatty

Tropheus wrote: »

flatty wrote: »

Scotland will go ballistic if NI which voted to brexit is allowed to remain in the eu, whilst Scotland, which voted remain by a huge margin, is forced out by the english, the leader of whom has just applied for French residency.

NI voted to remain also.

Apologies. I thought it was a narrow brexit. Not much in it compared to Scotland though

Seth Brundle

EdgeCase wrote: »

The EU *is* likely to grant NI special status because of the very unique circumstances there and it could be hugely advantageous to their economy and long term future to accept any offers like this.

As Britain will still need customs checkpoints somewhere between it and the EU, where will these be located?

ancapailldorcha

The DUP issue really needs to be resolved quickly. If there was anything close to a consensus for Brexit, I have no doubt that we'd have had another election to remove their influence over the Conservative party. They are a block to any effective solution which would solve the Irish border issue and this is making a hard, no deal Brexit more and more likely by the day.

EdgeCase

trellheim wrote: »

I have no idea where you're going to find any evidence to support that particular supposition

I think what needs to happen is a compromise deal be worked out to give a new status to Northern Ireland and the DUP needs to accept that that will have to be put to the people. They alone don’t have a mandate to decide for NI and it’s not in either communities’ interest for them to do something so divisive as to do that.


I also think we need to think long and hard about calls for reunification. I don’t think NI or the Republic is ready for that. It doesn’t mean it can’t be a long term political aspiration but it would just create conflict now and it really needs to be a achieved with consensus and not in a crisis. All those calls are doing is driving the unionist political position into a corner and removing the prospect of a compromise status.

I also think Scotland needs to butt out. Northern Ireland is a very dangerous and fragile situation - it is quite literally a recent live conflict zone where thousands of people were killed over the question of identity and nationality and having the SNP trying to ride on the coattails of any special arrangements it may have is really unhelpful. It’s even worse when you’ve the mayor of London demanding equivalency for the London region.

I really think Northern Ireland needs to be treated separately and very, very sensitively. It should never be used as a political football. It’s just way too delicate a situation and the risks are enormous.

Infini

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

That would be an extremely interesting scenario. The optics and symbolism of Foster's family home ending up in the Republic would be hilarious. It's almost as if David Davis didn't think it through. Whether or which, it lets the DUP know exactly where they stand.

That's a nice house you have there Arlene, it would be a shame if some Brexiteer...... moved it to another country!

flatty

EdgeCase wrote: »

trellheim wrote: »

I have no idea where you're going to find any evidence to support that particular supposition

I think what needs to happen is a compromise deal be worked out to give a new status to Northern Ireland and the DUP needs to accept that that will have to be put to the people. They alone don’t have a mandate to decide for NI and it’s not in either communities’ interest for them to do something so divisive as to do that.


I also think we need to think long and hard about calls for reunification. I don’t think NI or the Republic is ready for that. It doesn’t mean it can’t be a long term political aspiration but it would just create conflict now and it really needs to be a achieved with consensus and not in a crisis. All those calls are doing is driving the unionist political position into a corner and removing the prospect of a compromise status.

I also think Scotland needs to butt out. Northern Ireland is a very dangerous and fragile situation - it is quite literally a recent live conflict zone where thousands of people were killed over the question of identity and nationality and having the SNP trying to ride on the coattails of any special arrangements it may have is really unhelpful. It’s even worse when you’ve the mayor of London demanding equivalency for the London region.

I really think Northern Ireland needs to be treated separately and very, very sensitively. It should never be used as a political football. It’s just way too delicate a situation and the risks are enormous.

I don't think Scotland needs to "butt out" of anything. I find the Scottish question the most interesting part of brexit in many ways, especially the timing of indy ref 2. If they had any spine as a nation, they would have voted for independence previously and could be well on the way to hoovering up the bulk of the exiting City fintecs. Unfortunately for them, they voted with what they thought were their wallets, and the SNP must realise that their best chance of an independence vote will be a hard brexit and rerun once that fully bites Scotland. Youll then have the absolute logistical nightmare of a hard border between Scotland and England.
If NI don't opt for the manna from heaven of a foot in both camps, then the DUP deserve all that's coming. The fact that the DUP hold the balance of power is an indictment of the democratic system currently in place in the UK, and shows teresa may up for what she is.

CelticRambler

Peregrinus wrote: »

SFAIK, this only works in Liechtenstein because there is a hard border between Leichtenstein and the EU.

It also helps that the Leichtenstein-EU border mostly runs along a series of Alpine peaks at an altitude of 2000-2500m. Making the whole of Northern Ireland a special status/buffer-zone could work, if only there was a significant geological feature that separated "the province" from "the mainland" ... :rolleyes:

Charles Babbage

Sam Russell wrote: »

I think Davis missed a trick.

If he had said 60 miles of a buffer zone, only Ballycastle would be outside it. Thus it would be simple - NI remains in the CU SM buffer zone, but not the whole of NI. Customs post only required at the entry points - the ports and airports.

Problem solved.

On a straight line basis, Ballycastle is only 28miles from Donegal. 60 miles is all of NI!

I'm not sure what the purpose of this zone is anyhow.



The Liechtenstein model may be a good starting point for discussion, noting that there are checks run by the Swiss at the Liechtenstein-Austria border.

CelticRambler

Charles Babbage wrote: »

The Liechtenstein model may be a good starting point for discussion, noting that there are checks run by the Swiss at the Liechtenstein-Austria border.

The implication being ... ? That the Irish/EU would police the internal NI-NI border?



Or just that there are checks and associated infrastructure, so this particular duck of an idea is already dead in the water. :rolleyes:

In any case, there's no need to go looking for weird and wonderful examples around the world, when we already have a near-perfect example of a special status arrangement currently functionning within the UK - an area called "Northern Ireland" which has its own laws and traditions, is geographically separate from Britain, and exercises "internal" border controls for a range of traded commodities. From the day of the referendum result, special status for NI (an evolution of the current status) was always going to be the only logical solution to that part of the Brexit mess.

Zubeneschamali

CelticRambler wrote: »

The implication being ... ? That the Irish/EU would police the internal NI-NI border?

Border up the Irish Sea, EU man the Belfast side, no border in Ireland.

LeinsterDub

An unnamed Whitehall source told the Sun: “Max fac 2 is tremendously complicated, but it’s at least something the cabinet can unite around.”

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/jun/01/brexit-northern-ireland-could-be-given-joint-eu-and-uk-status?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

Max Fac 2 : Now with added unicorns. The only person who seems to understand this "idea" is Davis.

Patser

Schrodinger's brexit - when Northern Ireland is both in and out of the EU zone

Charles Babbage

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Border up the Irish Sea, EU man the Belfast side, no border in Ireland.

Exactly. The EU need to oversee the NI side, perhaps not actually man it.

Additionally, NI needs to remain in VAT union both the with EU (or at least ROI) and GB.

Sam Russell

Charles Babbage wrote: »

On a straight line basis, Ballycastle is only 28miles from Donegal. 60 miles is all of NI!

That was my point really. 10 miles or 60 miles? what is the logic in one over the other? 60 Miles is 100 km.

There are a few geological features that could form part of a border. River Bann, or the waterways around Eniskillen.

But no, the best geographical feature is the Irish Sea,

J Mysterio

I think this means the UK have accepted that NI needs to remain in the EU with regulatory alignment between North/ South and a border 'down the Irish sea'.

The proposal really is nonsense though, and I think the UK knows that. So, I think it's possible they are proposing this daft scenario so it can be softly transitioned to the original backstop in negotiations but while offering up some concessions from the EU in doing so.

The DUP need to be given an ultimatum though, the UK have empowered them. Not sure another Billion will do it.

flatty

NI will need to be in the eu as they will be squeezed brutally along with the rest of the UK as the economy slowly eases into a siding and begins to rust post brexit, and most able bodied companies climb out and find another means of transport.

EdgeCase

I think if you put a compromise deal involving a sea border to the people in NI it might be accepted.

The general public up the is a hell of a lot more pragmatic and reasonable ,on almost every subject, than their political representation would have you believe!

EdgeCase

EdgeCase wrote: »

I think if you put a compromise deal involving a sea border to the people in NI it might be accepted.

The general public up the is a hell of a lot more pragmatic and reasonable ,on almost every subject, than their political representation would have you believe!

Has there been any recent opinion polls taken in NI presenting the various scenarios?

An Ciarraioch

Deleted User wrote: »

EdgeCase wrote: »

I think if you put a compromise deal involving a sea border to the people in NI it might be accepted.

The general public up the is a hell of a lot more pragmatic and reasonable ,on almost every subject, than their political representation would have you believe!

Has there been any recent opinion polls taken in NI presenting the various scenarios?

Just the Queens' poll that said 85% of people in NI favoured the Single Market option, of those 61% opted for whole UK remaining, 24% were prepared to accept just NI as members, while only the remaining 15% wanted Hard Brexit.

Capt'n Midnight

Dont be at yourself wrote: »

That 10 mile buffer zone would encompass the cities of Derry and Newry, not just a few dairy farms...

The A4 and A5 ( N2 ) cross at Ballygawley which is well within the zone so won't that affect a lot of internal traffic too ?

Armagh and Eniskillen would be at the border at best.
The bottom half of Fermanagh below the lakes would be in the Neutral Zone.


Arlene's constituency.

Capt'n Midnight

File under "we didn't think it through"

Up to 650 TV channels registered in the UK will need EU licences.
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-44307883

A report commissioned by Coba estimates that the international broadcast sector was worth just over £1bn to the UK economy in 2017, if you take into account all sorts of things like content commissioning, post-production, transmission and marketing.

...
Being a major international centre for the dissemination of news, information and entertainment is an important element of "soft power" that the UK needs to retain after Brexit.

Things aren't looking bright for the UK Steel industry.
US trade tariffs: May disappointed at 'unjustified' move
Yeah good luck with when you no longer have the EU at your back.

Also dragging out this again the UK is willing shaft the EU steel industry in order to save £4.80 per household on cheap Chinese shoes.
Sajid Javid said UK opposed scrapping of lesser duty rule to fight Chinese steel dumping because it would have ‘cost shoppers dear’

And just a reminder that China needs to dump about 20 million tonnes of steel a year because overproduction. When the US and EU go shields up the UK won't be able to compete and will be left with just the high value - low volume speciality steel. Also expect India to get a bit miffed if they have to say tata to their investments.




I've posted before that Small Businesses said only 100 Canadian companies are trusted at the US border so max fac isn't worth much to them.


Big Businees wants defacto customs union.
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-44310224

A group of major European companies has warned the Prime Minister they may cut investment without more clarity over the terms of Britain's EU exit.

...
The ERT represents Europe's 50 largest companies, with combined revenues of 2.25 trillion euros (£2tn) and millions of employees.

Meanwhile in Spain they've forced the Prime Minister out of office over a corruption scandal. If only it was that easy ...