Brexit discussion thread III

CelticRambler

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

The A4 and A5 ( N2 ) cross at Ballygawley which is well within the zone so won't that affect a lot of internal traffic too ?

The question has already been asked: what's the significance of 10 miles? At this stage, it sounds like a number that was plucked out of thin air by someone who had a vague idea of NI's shape from seeing it on weather forecaster's maps.



If we ever get to see a policy document on the subject, rather than newspaper rumours, I'm sure the good people of NI, boards.ie and elsewhere will find hundreds of locations within or at the edges of the buffer-zone that will make the cost and practical administration of such a plan even more complex than anything that's been suggested to date.

An Ciarraioch

A cartographer has worked out that we would effectively be annexing Derry, Enniskillen, Armagh and Newry:

https://mobile.twitter.com/ManAboutCouch/status/1002485602661687296/photo/1

Sam Russell

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

A cartographer has worked out that we would effectively be annexing Derry, Enniskillen, Armagh and Newry:

https://mobile.twitter.com/ManAboutCouch/status/1002485602661687296/photo/1

If they made it a little wider than 16 km, they would get Omagh within the border and greatly reduce the length of the buffer-border. That would reduce the problem, but it is still a border that needs controls and therefore friction.

PopePalpatine

CelticRambler wrote: »

The question has already been asked: what's the significance of 10 miles? At this stage, it sounds like a number that was plucked out of thin air by someone who had a vague idea of NI's shape from seeing it on weather forecaster's maps.

It's not using those blasted metric measurements, for starters.

murphaph

Surely all this buffer zone talk is more fantasy stuff?

cml387

murphaph wrote: »

Surely all this buffer zone talk is more fantasy stuff?

I think a lot of people missed The Sun's comment,that it was an interesting proposal but that it would be shot down in Brussels.

So the narrative is that the UK is proposing a good solution and that we'd get away with it, if it weren't for those pesky EU bureaucrats.

McGiver

cml387 wrote: »

murphaph wrote: »

Surely all this buffer zone talk is more fantasy stuff?

I think a lot of people missed The Sun's comment,that it was an interesting proposal but that it would be shot down in Brussels.

So the narrative is that the UK is proposing a good solution and that we'd get away with it, if it weren't for those pesky EU bureaucrats.

Do you think it's just stupid and silly Brexiteer shooting in the dark style of bollocks or it is actually designed with the intention to blame the EU for "inflexibility" and "belligerence" (those two words often appear in UK gutter and even less so gutter press)?

Capt'n Midnight

murphaph wrote: »

Surely all this buffer zone talk is more fantasy stuff?

Where does anyone begin ?

http://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/Main/InsaneTrollLogic

Insane Troll Logic is the kind of logic that just can't be argued with because it's so demented, so lost in its own insanity, that any attempts to make it rational would make it more incomprehensible.

The Tory government is totally dependent on the DUP for it's majority.

This plan would effectively decrimilise smuggling in the DUP leaders constituency.


have a look at the comments here https://sluggerotoole.com/2018/06/01/latest-wheeze-northern-ireland-to-become-a-joint-eu-uk-economic-area-with-a-10-mile-buffer-on-the-border/

This is the Irish sea border in a bit of a disguise



The DUP no longer have a veto, by stringing it out to literally the last minute, it is too late for an election over this,



What about people on the border of the border zone?
- Looks like we will need a buffer zone for the buffer zone.



That would probably make Monaghan the equivalent of Mos Eisley.



Will there be a new fleg and anthem for Bufferzonia?



This brilliant solution consists of creating TWO borders, one on either side of the "no man's land".

judeboy101

murphaph wrote: »

Surely all this buffer zone talk is more fantasy stuff?

We had a buffet zone 800 yrs ago, called the Irish sea.

Kermit.de.frog

Mod: No more nonsense GIF's please.

Rain Ascending

cml387 wrote: »

I think a lot of people missed The Sun's comment,that it was an interesting proposal but that it would be shot down in Brussels.

So the narrative is that the UK is proposing a good solution and that we'd get away with it, if it weren't for those pesky EU bureaucrats.

It would help if No. 10 played along then with that narrative. Unfortunately, they have other ideas. Although I do note that while they shot down the Irish Sea border implied by the "NI with dual regulation regimes" proposal, they didn't mention the 10-mile border zone explicitly.


Not sure what kite Davis was trying to fly, but it has been an entertaining 24 hours watching here and Slugger O'Toole explore the absurdity.

CelticRambler

Looking at that photo again, as published in the Sun article, it's just struck me that anyone who doesn't know the size and shape of NI would almost certainly interpret the red line as the 10-mile buffer zone, rather than just the border itself, conveniently not seeing any of the towns included in the proposed buffer. The cartographer's mapmentioned above presents a very different image.

How on earth do they think they can control (or impose) dual EU/UK standards in towns such as Newry and Derry and not have them apply, for example, to a branch of the store in Belfast or Coleraine? Will we see MacDonald's in Omagh still serving drinks with plastic straws while MacDonald's in Armagh has to comply with the EU ban?

Rain Ascending

One of the regulars on EUReferendum.com, has created a quick, slightly quirky guide to over 60 of the EU's notices to stakeholders. It clearly illustrates that on aggregate, a "no deal" Brexit is a very bleak prospect.

Peregrinus gave a very plausible outcome for the June European Council meeting, namely that the EU would simply say that they are awaiting more realistic proposals from the UK government, but explicitly warn member states to accelerate contingency plans for a no-deal Brexit.

It's interesting to note that while this messaging appears very neutral ("we don't like this, it's going to damage all sides, but please prepare for it, just in case"), its impact on the UK and EU would be very asymmetrical.

• Because the r26 EU states, especially those who will be most impacted like Ireland, have been clear about the negative impact of Brexit, being asked to prepare for the worst won't be completely unexpected. The explicit warnings in the EU notices as outlined above, help to set those expectations.
• The UK, on the other hand, has been unable to reconcile its pre-referendum utopian vision for Brexit with the reality -- see their limited sectoral impact studies, for example. So a strong focus on a no-deal Brexit will be like a dash of cold water to the face.

An Claidheamh

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/government-gives-theresa-may-two-weeks-to-solve-border-issue-1.3516829



"Tánaiste Simon Coveney says the European Union taskforce, led by Michel Barnier, must receive detailed proposals in writing from the British government within a fortnight.

This would allow time to debate and discuss the proposals ahead of the European Council meeting on June 28th and 29th. The Government has said substantial progress on the Border, including the so-called “backstop”, must be made by this summit."



About time!

Be interesting to see how this ultimatum plays out.

Have a feeling Britain will wiggle around it before summit to test the waters, then give in when it realises the EU is serious.

mickoneill31

This month's Ft Brexit unspun pofcast has some information on immigration to Britain.

EU workers have reduced so employers are trying to recruit people from outside the EU. But there's a limit each month on how many non EU people get visas. Obviously after the transition period the UK will need some sort of system for EU migrants too. The current system is broken so its not a great example.


https://pca.st/6t2W

Capt'n Midnight

Slightly off topic

Surveying has started on the Celtic Interconnector for a decision in 2021
https://www.rte.ie/news/munster/2018/0530/967172-eirgrid-celtic-interconnector/

Here we can accept up to 65% electricity from non-synch sources like renewables when they are available. We will have problems meeting our carbon limits though. But we have enought installed capacity to keep the lights on for the foreseeable future.


I've posted before about the dependence of the UK on the "on time, on budget" delivery of nuclear to keep the lights on as they retire the old fossil fuel power plants. It's one of many issues that Brexit is taking time away from, and also there isn't certainty about future energy imports from the EU , electricity, fuel, euroatom etc.


Three new nuclear plants are planned to provide a sizable chunk of UK baseload electricity. Each of these is about 7% of total UK demand. Brexit isn't making it easier from the foreign workers to the fuel to the financing.

Hinkley C - EDF have a guaranteed price of 9.25p a unit for 35 years twice the wholesale price
as EDF are French the fall in Sterling won't have been nice.
Wylfa will be about 7.75p a unit , still way above the market rate. So the Hitachi, a Japanese company have to decide.
Moorside - been delayed another 5 years

Needless to say Labour are a bit iffy about nuclear so no political certainty either.

Enzokk

I am not sure if this has been posted on here but Iain Duncan Smith was on Sophy Ridge on Sunday on Sky on the 27th May. I think Sophy Ridge should have been better prepared for this interview. It was very much like Trump where lies and half truths were uttered but not challenged by her.

The video below starts at IDS discussing the importance of the UK to France. He asserts that the UK is basically keeping the France economy going buy buying French agriculture products.

The UK is a very important partner for France, Ireland and the Netherlands when it comes to agriculture exports. There is no denying this, but to state that the UK is keeping the France economy going? If only there was study done to asses the impacts of Brexit on the said sector and looking at the impacts of WTO tariffs.

EU - UK agricultural trade: state of play and possible impacts of Brexit

On page 24 there is a handy table that lists the export totals of the EU countries of agriculture products to the UK. That states that about 7b euro is exported from France to the UK. This represents about 15% of the EU total to the UK, but only 1.23% of French agriculture exports. French exports of agriculture is about 1.6% of their GDP. So 1.23% of a 1.6% total of their GDP is keeping the French economy going. I mean, seriously? It is 6B euro of 2.57T euro of their GDP that is keeping the French economy going. I mean again, really?

Economy of France

CelticRambler

"Plenty of time" he says! "Just decide what you want and get on with it ..." :pac:

And then, at 4m41s he brags about how he (successfully?) implemented three government IT projects. Presumably means his three versions of the Universal Credit farce, originally scheduled to be fully functional by 2017 but now maybe, perhaps, possibly ready for 2023 ... ish; and with a write-off cost of £60m after the first failure, subsequently increased to about £90m and likely to rise to around £120m by the time it's eventually working (or the latest version is binned). :rolleyes:

Enzokk

CelticRambler wrote: »

"Plenty of time" he says! "Just decide what you want and get on with it ..." :pac:

And then, at 4m41s he brags about how he (successfully?) implemented three government IT projects. Presumably means his three versions of the Universal Credit farce, originally scheduled to be fully functional by 2017 but now maybe, perhaps, possibly ready for 2023 ... ish; and with a write-off cost of £60m after the first failure, subsequently increased to about £90m and likely to rise to around £120m by the time it's eventually working (or the latest version is binned). :rolleyes:

He also said you shouldn't let politicians close to IT systems, yet he implemented 3 projects as you mention. I assume he means you shouldn't let any politicians but him close to IT projects. He will just be super at it I suppose.

McGiver

Enzokk wrote: »

I am not sure if this has been posted on here but Iain Duncan Smith was on Sophy Ridge on Sunday on Sky on the 27th May. I think Sophy Ridge should have been better prepared for this interview. It was very much like Trump where lies and half truths were uttered but not challenged by her.

The video below starts at IDS discussing the importance of the UK to France. He asserts that the UK is basically keeping the France economy going buy buying French agriculture products.

The UK is a very important partner for France, Ireland and the Netherlands when it comes to agriculture exports. There is no denying this, but to state that the UK is keeping the France economy going? If only there was study done to asses the impacts of Brexit on the said sector and looking at the impacts of WTO tariffs.

EU - UK agricultural trade: state of play and possible impacts of Brexit

On page 24 there is a handy table that lists the export totals of the EU countries of agriculture products to the UK. That states that about 7b euro is exported from France to the UK. This represents about 15% of the EU total to the UK, but only 1.23% of French agriculture exports. French exports of agriculture is about 1.6% of their GDP. So 1.23% of a 1.6% total of their GDP is keeping the French economy going. I mean, seriously? It is 6B euro of 2.57T euro of their GDP that is keeping the French economy going. I mean again, really?

Economy of France

This person is cynical, arrogant, deluded, affected by exceptionalism and illusion of grandeur and either a liar or ignorant. The English political class and unfortunately at least 50% of their electorate are stuck in this British Empire nostalgia thinking they can keep bullying other countries at a knife point as they used to do 100 years ago.

Funnily enough, they say the EU is bullying them, but in fact they were and still are the bully themselves. They have practically bullied the EU for 40 years.

An Claidheamh

Britain/British Brexiteers thinking everyone is dependent on them all of a sudden.

These fools are not fit to dictate to Irish or Scottish EU citizens.
They're not fit to rule themselves.

Remember this man could have been PM years ago.

I can only imagine what mess he would have made of NI.

Infini

McGiver wrote: »

This person is cynical, arrogant, deluded, affected by exceptionalism and illusion of grandeur and either a liar or ignorant. The English political class and unfortunately at least 50% of their electorate are stuck in this British Empire nostalgia thinking they can keep bullying other countries at a knife point as they used to do 100 years ago.

Funnily enough, they say the EU is bullying them, but in fact they were and still are the bully themselves. They have practically bullied the EU for 40 years.

Unfortunately for them their road of endless BS is actually about to run out for them soon, they got about 2 weeks to get their house in order otherwise I can see the EU suspending all talk's with the UK basically because the UK does not have a coherent or factual position. I think a hard dose of reality of what Brexit actually will be or the realistic threat of a no deal scenario dragging their economy into a depression is what's really needed to force them to face reality and realise they have no power, no negotiating strategy, no friends and no hope of getting their way on this. Their incoherent and incompetent bumbling and stalling has cost them time and any hope of getting any deal on their terms. They caused this situation so they own it.

Its either
1) Accept an agreement presented to them by the EU and accept it.
2) Abandon Brexit because its either that or a no deal
3) Crash out and watch their economy crash and their state disintegrate over the next 10 years.

Brexit is Bolloxed.

An Ciarraioch

Interesting thread by Faisal Islam on how the Dutch government is helping businesses ensure that they're fully "Brexit-ready" - I know Tony Connelly's book says IBEC had a similar exercise involving box-ticking, but unsure if it's as comprehensive as this:

https://mobile.twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1002974611586379776

Leroy42

They won't suspend talks, the EU are masters at keeping dialogue going.

I think it will prove to be quite fractious though, with both claiming the other is not being seroius in the negotiations.

You'll have calls from people on both sides to pull out, and things will rumble on with all parties claiming to have the higher ground.

Something will then be contrived close to October to give both parties the ability to they delivered.

CelticRambler

Dont be at yourself wrote: »

I think a hard dose of reality of what Brexit actually will be or the realistic threat of a no deal scenario dragging their economy into a depression is what's really needed to force them to face reality and realise they have no power, no negotiating strategy, no friends and no hope of getting their way on this.

You can't threaten someone with something that they refuse to acknowledge. It's like saying "God is watching you" to an atheist as a mean to convince them to be good!



Britain doesn't need a deal, the EU does;

Britain's economy will be all the better once free of the EU's shackles;

Britain has plenty of friends;
Britain is still a great power in the world, but frustrated by its obligations to the EU;
etc, etc, etc ...



Brexit is a religion, and its believers can't wait for the Rapture. :cool:

Janey Mack

From the Lemass Tapes in today's Irish Times

Harold MacMillan and the United Kingdom’s EEC membership

“I do not think that either MacMillan or any member of the British government ever fully understood that they could not be half in and half out of the EEC. They had to make up their minds whether Britain was to be a part of a united Europe and, if so, they would have to resign themselves to the fact that they could not have a special relationship with the US which would give them rights and privileges against their Common Market partners or try to maintain the Commonwealth preferences. MacMillan did not realise that indication of vacillation on Britain’s part would discredits its application in the eyes of de Gaulle. As a result, I think he was surprised by the de Gaulle veto.”

It looks like that 'Cake' has been around for over 50 years!

I only have access to the a print copy of the paper (old school) so I'll summarise. Lemass believed having failed in their desire to break up the EEC "their application for membership was probably inspired by the idea that they could slow down its development in some way and perhaps change its character". He thought that they later came round to the idea of the EEC but that their "imperial frame of mind" ...."Commonwealth"....."has prevented the British from thinking of themselves as a completely European country"

Fast forward to today and the UK are still trying to change the character of the EU to suit themselves. I'm inclined to agree with previous posters who suggest that the UK (England) needs a tough Brexit if they are to ever let go of the Empire/Empire 2.0 mindset.

Up to this I have just been a lurker on this thread but I'm totally addicted to it, so thanks to all the informed posters here.

Capt'n Midnight

So looks like the buffer zone, was just the usual UK tradition of bluster and noise and then acceeding to the EU demands later.


https://sluggerotoole.com/2018/06/02/the-wheeze-lasted-less-than-24-hours/

Korhomme • 4 hours ago
Was it all just a fishing expedition?

William Kinmont Korhomme • 3 hours ago
I don't think they are fishing for the solution they already know what that is they are just fishing as to how to sell it.

Most of the senior Tories haven't got much to lose if the DUP bring down the govt. It's only T May who won't be coming back at some point that's why she is clinging to the DUP she has no plan B other than cling on to power and hope a miracle appears otherwise her legacy is calling an election at the wrong point.

Water John

Crispin Odey says publicly, that Gove should replace May, as she 'cannot carry Brexit through'.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jun/02/replace-theresa-may-with-michael-gove-tory-donor-says-brexit-uk-news

An Ciarraioch

The same man, remember, who wrote a book stating that the GFA was a surrender to terrorism (Gove, not Odey).

An Ciarraioch

Tomorrow's Sunday Times:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DetsoX3WsAEesu9?format=jpg

Lemming

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Tomorrow's Sunday Times:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DetsoX3WsAEesu9?format=jpg

From the above link:

Tomorrow's Sunday Times wrote:

Davis has sought to persuade civic leaders in key ports such as Calais and Antwerp to tell their central governments that goods must keep flowing.

It's not like EU member states, or indeed the rest of the WTO members, might have something to say about that ... The arrogance (or should that be ignorance?) of the man is just beyond mind-boggling.

Janey Mack

Janey Mack wrote: »

From the Lemass Tapes in today's Irish Times

It looks like that 'Cake' has been around for over 50 years!

I only have access to the a print copy of the paper (old school) so I'll summarise. Lemass believed having failed in their desire to break up the EEC "their application for membership was probably inspired by the idea that they could slow down its development in some way and perhaps change its character". He thought that they later came round to the idea of the EEC but that their "imperial frame of mind" ...."Commonwealth"....."has prevented the British from thinking of themselves as a completely European country"

Fast forward to today and the UK are still trying to change the character of the EU to suit themselves. I'm inclined to agree with previous posters who suggest that the UK (England) needs a tough Brexit if they are to ever let go of the Empire/Empire 2.0 mindset.

Up to this I have just been a lurker on this thread but I'm totally addicted to it, so thanks to all the informed posters here.

The stuff from de Gaulle back then is amazing to read. When I first came across it a few years ago I thought he was pretty petulant, then I read more and thought he was paranoid, now I realise he was right and nothing's changed.

Enzokk

I find it interesting that the Sunday Times article states that civil servants have worked out what a no deal Brexit could mean. The Department for Exiting the EU has basically rubbished the article stating that these scenarios can be ignored because they will not happen as the UK will not leave without a deal. Seeing that it is one of the options that could happen, surely you cannot just not pay attention to it?

Is it just me or has the UK called its own bluff? I mean they say they could leave without a deal, but then come out and say that it will not happen. Seems a weird message to send to the EU. "We can leave without a deal and don't need your trade and can trade on WTO rules so you better give us what we want, but we will not leave without a deal because it will be dangerous to do so..."

I expect noise from Brexiteers over the next day or two stating how strong the UK is and how it can stand on its own two feet without the EU. You know how many people were saying that leaving the EU will be a slow car crash? I think we are seeing that now. No-one can tell you what they want from the EU, one side says it will all be fine, the other ignores what could happen and is plowing forward with proposals that has been dismissed already.

Sam Russell

In the Guardian:

Replace Theresa May with Michael Gove to sort out Brexit, Tory donor urges
Government should be bolder in talks with Brussels, Leave campaign backer Crispin Odey claims

Michael Gove should be installed as the new Tory leader because Theresa May has shown that she cannot “carry Brexit through”, a major party donor has publicly warned.

In a stark sign of the frustration among prominent Brexit supporters over the government’s handling of negotiations with the EU, Crispin Odey, a hedge fund manager who backed the Leave campaign, said he believed the environment secretary had the skills to make a success of Britain’s exit and appeal to voters.

“We should say, ‘we’ve got to have life after this, so we’re creating that life. We are creating trade agreements which are in breach of everything, because we won’t be in breach by the time you come to take us to court’. That’s how Elizabeth I would have been leading with this.”

If they are quoting what Elizabeth the first would do, they must be getting desperate - why, that was before Scotland joined to form the UK. Little Englanders rise again - away with ye Scots.

Professor Moriarty

Sam Russell wrote: »

In the Guardian:





If they are quoting what Elizabeth the first would do, they must be getting desperate - why, that was before Scotland joined to form the UK. Little Englanders rise again - away with ye Scots.

Crispin is a Harrow educated hedge fund manager who made a killing out of the 2008 crash. Hardly the occupation of a pro bono philanthropist. Furthermore, he also contributed heavily to UKIP and has been accused of interfering in other countries' politics by contributing to many anti-EU campaigns across Europe including Ireland.

Sam Russell

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Crispin is a Harrow educated hedge fund manager who made a killing out of the 2008 crash. Hardly the occupation of a pro bono philanthropist. Furthermore, he also contributed heavily to UKIP and has been accused of interfering in other countries' politics by contributing to many anti-EU campaigns across Europe including Ireland.

I suspected that he was not a pro bono type, but then again, there are not many of those around the Tory donors - most are Me Feiners.

An Ciarraioch

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Tomorrow's Sunday Times:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DetsoX3WsAEesu9?format=jpg

That's an astonishing amount of "wtf is going on" in a relatively small piece of text.

We might need to revisit whether switching on the Large Hadron Collider was in fact a good idea. We've transitioned into a farcical timeline of events.

Professor Moriarty

Sam Russell wrote: »

I suspected that he was not a pro bono type, but then again, there are not many of those around the Tory donors - most are Me Feiners.

To reinforce the point, in 2009 he threatened to leave Britain because he was paying too much tax. A true patriot who loves his country and its people.

McGiver

Infini wrote: »

McGiver wrote: »

This person is cynical, arrogant, deluded, affected by exceptionalism and illusion of grandeur and either a liar or ignorant. The English political class and unfortunately at least 50% of their electorate are stuck in this British Empire nostalgia thinking they can keep bullying other countries at a knife point as they used to do 100 years ago.

Funnily enough, they say the EU is bullying them, but in fact they were and still are the bully themselves. They have practically bullied the EU for 40 years.

Its either
1) Accept an agreement presented to them by the EU and accept it.
2) Abandon Brexit because its either that or a no deal
3) Crash out and watch their economy crash and their state disintegrate over the next 10 years.

Brexit is Bolloxed.

Given the rhetoric of the likes of IDS and JRM, I wouldn't be surprised no 3 is their strategy, along with massive deregulation and privatisation, where their cronies will get assets on the cheap and they get nice fat pay out. Also, these lunatics may use "security" to threaten the EU i.e. sabre rattling. I'm not talking war but I think it's entirely possible in the current climate. The EU will be blamed regardless.

McGiver

Leroy42 wrote: »

They won't suspend talks, the EU are masters at keeping dialogue going.

I think it will prove to be quite fractious though, with both claiming the other is not being seroius in the negotiations.

You'll have calls from people on both sides to pull out, and things will rumble on with all parties claiming to have the higher ground.

Something will then be contrived close to October to give both parties the ability to they delivered.

The EU has nothing to deliver to anyone. None of the E27 leading politicians promised anything to their electorate or ran election manifesto with this topic, as far as I am aware.
It was the Tories as well as the Labour who promised something and they have to deliver. It's just not clear to anyone in the EU what that's supposed to be.

McGiver

CelticRambler wrote: »

Dont be at yourself wrote: »

I think a hard dose of reality of what Brexit actually will be or the realistic threat of a no deal scenario dragging their economy into a depression is what's really needed to force them to face reality and realise they have no power, no negotiating strategy, no friends and no hope of getting their way on this.

Brexit is a religion, and its believers can't wait for the Rapture. :cool:

Yes, a self fulfilling prophecy. They say something will happen, make it happen and then that proves their "prophecy". The hardcore Brexiteers who are being pulled by the strings by oligarchs would be more than happy to crash out with a no deal, intentionally.
Some of them are just deluded (Illusion of grandeur), but I really believe there are some, supported by certain shady businesses, who really want a crash, deregulation and then capitalise on the chaos created.

Capt'n Midnight

DUP news
DUP warns May support dependent on NI post-Brexit status

DUP leader Arlene Foster has warned British Prime Minister Theresa May that she will withdraw her support in the House of Commons if Northern Ireland is given special EU and UK status after Brexit.

If May was willing to fall on her sword hard Brexit could be avoided by letting the DUP be the fall guy. But Corbyn still wants out because ideology so there's that.


In other DUP news ...
Arlene Foster says some Sinn Fein supporters have told her they will vote DUP because of her party’s position on abortion.

trellheim

Corbyn has shown he's worse than Maggie "not for turning" . If I had to pick a "not going to change no matter what" it would be Corbyn continuing Brexit if he got in.

This therefore underpins the madness because its win-win for "Brexit at any Cost" types to bring the Tories down or, alternatively to keep the Tories in utter flux until post March 2019. It suits the hard-out side to rubbish in-between solutions as for every four rolls of the dice, they win on three of them

Inquitus

trellheim wrote: »

Corbyn has shown he's worse than Maggie "not for turning" . If I had to pick a "not going to change no matter what" it would be Corbyn continuing Brexit if he got in.

This therefore underpins the madness because its win-win for "Brexit at any Cost" types to bring the Tories down or, alternatively to keep the Tories in utter flux until post March 2019. It suits the hard-out side to rubbish in-between solutions as for every four rolls of the dice, they win on three of them

Totally agree, its been a perfect alignment of unfortunate circumstance, its hard to see how this can be undone or even done sensibly at this point.

Capt'n Midnight

So the UK has two weeks to come up with proposals ?

PSNI station sales on hold over Brexit uncertainty

Police in Northern Ireland are to ask the government to fund the recruitment of up to 400 additional officers for operations along the border after Brexit.

In the Republic of Ireland, the Garda (Irish Police) Representatives Association has called for additional Armed Support Units (ASUs) along the border and access to automatic weapons at border stations.

An Ciarraioch

And a German spokesperson on Brexit appears resigned to the likelihood of no deal:

https://mobile.twitter.com/GermanyonBrexit/status/1003245451552968704

Capt'n Midnight

Three no-deal Doomsday Brexit scenarios were leaked to the Sunday Times

http://www.thenational.scot/news/16266387.Secret_government__ARMAGEDDON__report_reveals_Brexit_will_leave_Scotland_s_supermarkets_empty/

A source told the paper: “In the second scenario, not even the worst, the port of Dover will collapse on day one. The supermarkets in Cornwall and Scotland will run out of food within a couple of days, and hospitals will run out of medicines within two weeks.”

Officials would have to charter aircraft, or use the RAF to ferry supplies to the furthest corners of the UK. “You would have to medevac medicine into Britain, and at the end of week two we would be running out of petrol as well,” the source said.

It's all a far cry from the apocryphal "Fog in Channel; Continent Cut Off".

flatty

That was an interesting headline. The Sunday Times were relatively pro brexit in my opinion, and seem to be shifting stance, but it's little and late. Likely too much of both. The complete abrogation of journalistic responsibility has been appalling in the UK.

Infini

McGiver wrote: »

Given the rhetoric of the likes of IDS and JRM, I wouldn't be surprised no 3 is their strategy, along with massive deregulation and privatisation, where their cronies will get assets on the cheap and they get nice fat pay out. Also, these lunatics may use "security" to threaten the EU i.e. sabre rattling. I'm not talking war but I think it's entirely possible in the current climate. The EU will be blamed regardless.

I'm honestly coming round to expecting a Hard Brexit at this point as their ignorant stupidity seems so built into their whole government at this point that short of those with a Brain literally bringing people out onto the street's to stop this madness there's no way of avoiding them sleepwalking into this mess.

It's a total joke that they walked themselves into this ridiculous self inflicted situation and their is no real leadership or person over there who can basically get those in parliament to basically say that if the Brexiteer's cant deliver a viable plan that they'll pull the plug on their BS entirely as those idiot's are looking more and more like a 5th column intent on destroying their own country for their ideological crap.

I actually expect that the news article that was posted a few posts back is actually what's gonna happen come March (fair ball to those who did leak it as this needs to be laid out as the consequences for this carryon) as their total incompetence and idiocy has shown for the last 2 years that they can shout all they want but the reality is that they have no plan, no fact's and no skill and by the time they realise this they wont even have a country anymore because I don't expect NI to stay NI if the inevitable car crash that come's outright cripples their economy and the Scot's will be of the same mind too and out of there as fast as they can bloody get.

McGiver

Infini wrote: »

I actually expect that the news article that was posted a few posts back is actually what's gonna happen come March (fair ball to those who did leak it as this needs to be laid out as the consequences for this carryon) as their total incompetence and idiocy has shown for the last 2 years that they can shout all they want but the reality is that they have no plan, no fact's and no skill and by the time they realise this they wont even have a country anymore because I don't expect NI to stay NI if the inevitable car crash that come's outright cripples their economy and the Scot's will be of the same mind too and out of there as fast as they can bloody get.

DM writing about the same but of course including in the article that according to Davis and Javid everything is alright. Until they fall off the cliff
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5800017/Britain-suffer-shortages-food-medicine-no-deal-Brexit.html