Brexit discussion thread III

Nody

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

It's not but so far Theresa May hasn't even tried to play chicken with the DUP on the issue. Surely they'd stomach a sea border over Prime Minister Jeremy Corbyn...

Well after his talk about handing back NI to Ireland I'd guess DUP really really would not want him in power and May should bully push DUP with that threat. However DUP being DUP I can see them go pigheaded on the topic and let it all burn down around them out of spite while singing "God Save the Queen" at the top of their lungs capacity.

Peregrinus

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

It's not but so far Theresa May hasn't even tried to play chicken with the DUP on the issue. Surely they'd stomach a sea border over Prime Minister Jeremy Corbyn...

No, they wouldn't. A Corbyn premiership would be unwelcome, but it would pass. Plus, it's not inherently offensive to the fundamentals of unionism. Being a unionist means you subject yourself to whatever government the British may elect, even if you don't like it.

But different and diverging trade regulatory regimes in NI and GB, and a regulatory border between them, is fundamentally problematic for the DUP; it offends both their instincts and their principles. No consideration of best interests will lead them to accept it.

If May does decide to do this, she will need to find support elsewhere to push it through. The DUP will never back it, not for any reason.

ancapailldorcha

Nody wrote: »

Well after his talk about handing back NI to Ireland I'd guess DUP really really would not want him in power and May should bully push DUP with that threat. However DUP being DUP I can see them go pigheaded on the topic and let it all burn down around them out of spite while singing "God Save the Queen" at the top of their lungs capacity.

She should but she seems to lack any sort of will or vision beyond retaining power for another day.

Peregrinus wrote: »

No, they wouldn't. A Corbyn premiership would be unwelcome, but it would pass. Plus, it's not inherently offensive to the fundamentals of unionism. Being a unionist means you subject yourself to whatever government the British may elect, even if you don't like it.

But different and diverging trade regulatory regimes in NI and GB, and a regulatory border between them, is fundamentally problematic for the DUP; it offends both their instincts and their principles. No consideration of best interests will lead them to accept it.

If May does decide to do this, she will need to find support elsewhere to push it through. The DUP will never back it, not for any reason.

Except the DUP is happy to stand out when it wants to with abortion rights being the most apt example at the moment.

It might be problematic for the DUP to accept a sea border but it's also problematic for the UK to accept continued single market and customs union membership. Should they do so, people will ask whether the UK has left the EU at all as opposed to merely ceding sovereignty.

The present situation is akin to a bag of cats with each interest group pushing it's own way in an antagonistic manner ultimately keeping the government from going anywhere. We don't even have a consensus on what Brexit should entail and it's approaching the 2-year anniversary of the vote to leave.

Unless the current government can reconcile it's internal differences it will not be viable come March 2019 which will necessitate another election with the threat of a Corbyn premiership and a government which will be much amenable to the idea of a border poll.

An Claidheamh

Sam Russell wrote: »

I agree.

If we are going to get a hard border under the proposed deal, we should veto it. That will mean a hard Brexit which causes utter chaos for the UK, which will mean they either take that or revise their position. If we hold fast, then the UK will be forced to concede. If they don't concede, we still have a hard border either way.

It's poker at its most dangerous, but it is vital we keep the northern border open with free movement across it for goods and people. We should keep in mind 'They haven't gone away, you know!'

I agree that's brilliant.

Would be important for Varadkar and Coveney to communicate that for us a hard border and no deal are the same thing, but a veto, I have no doubt will expunge both.

On another note, the Brits kicking the can to October could work in Ireland's favour.
The Cons will have no time left for magical technology, and they will re-agree to the sea border.
Dup will no longer have any power, Cons plus Labour will vote deal through.

Then British general election or Cons minority government.

steddyeddy

Nody wrote: »

Well after his talk about handing back NI to Ireland I'd guess DUP really really would not want him in power and May should bully push DUP with that threat. However DUP being DUP I can see them go pigheaded on the topic and let it all burn down around them out of spite while singing "God Save the Queen" at the top of their lungs capacity.

I've always thought that the DUP don't act to protect the union. They act to represent their voters, uneducated and stuck in the battle of the Boyne. What their voters think is good for the UK isn't actually good for the UK. We see this as lot of DUP actions, such as pushing for Brexit will eventually weaken the UK dramatically.

Seth Brundle

FreudianSlippers wrote: »

unfortunately, a very hard Brexit/border is not good for Ireland.

Ì don't think any kind of Brexit will be good for Ireland. Some Brexits though will be much worse than others.

blanch152

Peregrinus wrote: »

Not necessarily.

A brexit deal that keeps the border open, whatever its other terms, is better for us than a no-deal brexit. But a brexit deal that includes a hard border would almost certainly be worse for us than no deal.

A hard border with some tariff-free trade is worse than a hard border with WTO arrangements? Please explain.

sink

blanch152 wrote: »

A hard border with some tariff-free trade is worse than a hard border with WTO arrangements? Please explain.

WTO is completely unsustainable and will eventually force them back the the negotiating table. Any sort of minimal trade deal might just be enough for them to ignore the problems in perpetuity.

Peregrinus

blanch152 wrote: »

A hard border with some tariff-free trade is worse than a hard border with WTO arrangements? Please explain.

No-deal Brexit involves a hard border, but it also involves disastrous consequences for the UK. They'll still need a deal, in other words, and sooner or later they will come looking for one. At which point they are referred to the already-agreed elements of a deal, which include the divorce payment, no hard border, etc. So there will be further opportunities to press for an open border.

Whereas if the EU makes a deal which includes an agreed hard border, that's likely to be permanent.

For that reason, no deal + hard border is better from Ireland's point of view than deal + hard border.

ambro25

With all the noise and fury surrounding the notionality of a U.K.-EU agreement maintaining Ireland without an internal border, the Article 50 timeline and, lately, the power of balance held by Ireland with its veto...it will be very interesting to observe the extent to which that aspect of Brexit (as a whole and factoring in remaining Member Stated) influences the Gibraltar question and Spain’s own veto.

I just have this notion, based on the enduring absence of consideration paid to this further UK-EU border in press and official communications for a good while now, that DExEU are going to get blindsided by the issue. For a change.

Sam Russell

Peregrinus wrote: »

No-deal Brexit involves a hard border, but it also involves disastrous consequences for the UK. They'll still need a deal, in other words, and sooner or later they will come looking for one. At which point they are referred to the already-agreed elements of a deal, which include the divorce payment, no hard border, etc. So there will be further opportunities to press for an open border.

Whereas if the EU makes a deal which includes an agreed hard border, that's likely to be permanent.

For that reason, no deal + hard border is better from Ireland's point of view than deal + hard border.

In other words - a veto to any deal that does not include a frictionless border.

Frictionless border implies that NI remains in both the SM and the CU - as far as it impacts on the GFA etc etc. Obviously items regarding say wine or other factors that do not matter to NI/Irish trade will not matter.

We should be cognisant of the improvement in the sea freight operations going directly to France. They may prove to be vital.

trellheim

Sane Sun Headlines such as

Brussels was never going to let Britain be better off outside.

The Commission was determined to punish us for daring to leave. For believers in ever-closer union this an immutable article of faith.

Abandoning the True Path is a heresy punishable by economic death.

If we make it a success, we put the sacred Project in peril.

(today, see https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/6441953/theresa-may-swag-bag-brexit-success/)

Yes well thats what you need to see with your bacon sandwich

Zubeneschamali

Sam Russell wrote: »

In other words - a veto to any deal that does not include a frictionless border.

We won't have to veto it. The UK and EU have already agreed as the outcome of phase 1 that any withdrawal deal will include a frictionless border.

If the UK does not come up with a proposal which includes such a border, the EU (not just Ireland) will not agree a withdrawal deal, and the UK will be out on its ear in March, WTO terms, no transition period.

I think it is more likely that May and her cabinet will literally jump off the cliffs at Dover than take the UK out with no transition period.

An Ciarraioch

Corbyn quoted at a conference today - wants a CU that would allow UK to pursue own trade deals, rejects Norway EEA because he believes UK can do better, just shows he's as deluded as the Tories.

ancapailldorcha

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Corbyn quoted at a conference today - wants a CU that would allow UK to pursue own trade deals, rejects Norway EEA because he believes UK can do better, just shows he's as deluded as the Tories.

Effectively, we're down to the two major parties taking the same line on the biggest issue facing the nation. Reminds me of 2009.

EdgeCase

I don't really see how the mechanics of "a customs union" that allows one member to go off and pursue totally different customs arrangements with 3rd parties could possibly work.

It really isn't very logical and pretty much defeats the purpose of having a customs union at all.

Really, what they're looking for is some kind of loose bilateral trade agreement and one that's far less deep than CETA. They're just unwilling to be honest about that because it's controversial and would spook the markets and cause uproar amongst half the electorate.

I just see endless lies, spin, more lies, more spin, twisting facts, twisting language and being utterly dishonest about what they actually want.

I don't think they're even being honest to themselves, as they are pushing something that they know full well is impossible.

How does anyone even begin to negotiate with that? It's totally unrealistic.

Infini

https://www.breakingnews.ie/world/poll-records-new-high-in-number-of-voters-saying-brexit-is-wrong-847015.html

New poll showing majority of British now feel the decision to leave is wrong. Wonder if this might start thing's towards ending this farce as the severe damage they risk letting these gob****es cause becomes more apparent.

Capt'n Midnight

EdgeCase wrote: »

I don't really see how the mechanics of "a customs union" that allows one member to go off and pursue totally different customs arrangements with 3rd parties could possibly work.

Look at Turkey or Norway to see the deals they can do while mostly aligned with The Customs Union.

The UK economy parallels the EU one too much to justify leaving the CU for advantages in a few key areas. Yes they export lots of jet engines but dem things are bought on long term contracts years in advance. They aren't nett exporters of energy or food or raw materials. So the Norway or Turkey opt outs aren't worth much to them, if they have to take the hit on services.

An independent Scotland with whiskey and salmon and energy but restricted access to services passporting wouldn't be as hard hit.


High tech industries like Intel have to reinvest billions every few years, so for similar industries in the UK the question is where to build the factory next time. Same applies to things like car plants. Low tech service industeries like tech support could be moved to the EU or India tomorrow. The UK aims to get a chunk of the satellite market but a lot of that relies on EU companies and EU workers having UK access.

An Ciarraioch

Some UK political commentators getting excited about a new Labour amendment seeking "full access to the Internal Market", but of course, full access is far from membership of the Single Market, and it all just appears to be an attempt to stave off a rebellion on the EEA vote.

https://mobile.twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1004038161289367552

McGiver

Strazdas wrote: »

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Bertie Ahern warned that his biggest worry is that the British government manage to push things to the October summit. Seems that's exactly what they are trying to do thinking presumably the EU will put pressure on Ireland at that stage.

This is the "Varadkar called in to a room by France and Germany for a chat" scenario at the October summit.

UK Brexit blueprint delayed until after summit

https://www.ft.com/content/c92f7ea6-67f4-11e8-8cf3-0c230fa67aec

And if that wasn't bad enough Barnier seems to have done Dublin no favors today

Barnier Rejects Freezing Brexit Talks If No Irish Progress

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-06-04/barnier-rejects-freezing-brexit-talks-if-no-irish-progress

I wonder if Barnier has been misquoted here? It doesn't tally with what he has been consistently saying for the last six months or more.

He is just being diplomatic and kudos to his patience dealing with the lunatics on the other side. He has been too soft and too patient, but taking a harder stance now, there's no time left.
If he said "alright, no worries plenty of time left" the UK side would just keep doing nothing essentially staying a quasi-member for years. I don't think that's in anyone's interest. Either revoke A50 or get out on schedule deal or no deal. Everyone in the EU just wants to get this finished so that important issues can be dealt with (migration, Eurozone changes, general EU reform, FTAs with other countries etc). This whole Brexit thing is very disruptive.

McGiver

trellheim wrote: »

Sane Sun Headlines such as

Brussels was never going to let Britain be better off outside.

The Commission was determined to punish us for daring to leave. For believers in ever-closer union this an immutable article of faith.

Abandoning the True Path is a heresy punishable by economic death.

If we make it a success, we put the sacred Project in peril.

(today, see https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/6441953/theresa-may-swag-bag-brexit-success/)

Yes well thats what you need to see with your bacon sandwich

Holy crap, this Sun article is like Russian propaganda...

J Mysterio

This is kind of ironic. The UK Carer's industry could collapse by Brexit due to the ammount of EU nationals who care for the UK's elderly and infirm.

The end of EU free movementbecause of Brexit risks exacerbating the crisis in social care and causing a “domino effect” in the sector, new research has warned.

The services, which face growing demand because of an ageing population, currently have a deficit of 90,000 staff vacancies – with charities increasingly hiring skilled EU nationals to fill posts. 

But 87 per cent of all EU charity workers employed in social care would not meet the conditions for work visas currently imposed on non-EU nationals, the study by the Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR) found, leaving charities “facing a perfect storm of high employee churn, skills shortages, low pay, and increasing labour demand”.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-free-movement-social-care-charities-ippr-report-eu-citizens-rights-immigration-controls-a8384836.html

Professor Moriarty

J Mysterio wrote: »

This is kind of ironic. The UK Carer's industry could collapse by Brexit due to the ammount of EU nationals who care for the UK's elderly and infirm.

The end of EU free movementbecause of Brexit risks exacerbating the crisis in social care and causing a “domino effect” in the sector, new research has warned.

The services, which face growing demand because of an ageing population, currently have a deficit of 90,000 staff vacancies – with charities increasingly hiring skilled EU nationals to fill posts. 

But 87 per cent of all EU charity workers employed in social care would not meet the conditions for work visas currently imposed on non-EU nationals, the study by the Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR) found, leaving charities “facing a perfect storm of high employee churn, skills shortages, low pay, and increasing labour demand”.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-free-movement-social-care-charities-ippr-report-eu-citizens-rights-immigration-controls-a8384836.html

It's almost as if the Tories didn't think Brexit through.

trellheim

Twitter seems to be pointing at news this week. Watch for where Olly robbins is

Here's the agenda for the week



https://ec.europa.eu/commission/sites/beta-political/files/agenda_5-8_june.pdf

Charles Babbage

Labour amendment seeks 'full access' to EU market
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-44377072

This of course requires paying into the kitty and having free movement, but if they get this kind of thing then the main thing needed in NI is agriculture stuff, which already exsists to some extent.

Roanmore

From the Sky News website, think they're running it on the main news as well

https://news.sky.com/story/european-businesses-advised-to-avoid-using-british-parts-ahead-of-brexit-11395908

Big blow for the UK car industry, this quote stood out for me:
"The hard Brexiteers have built a bomb under the UK automotive industry and the EU have lit it," said one chief executive.

Parts made in the UK will no longer be counted as EU parts after Brexit, to count towards EU Free Trade deals parts approx 55% of the parts must come from the EU.

Capt'n Midnight

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

It's almost as if the Tories didn't think Brexit through.

Given things like the snoopers charter it's still not a given that the UK will get data adequacy status nevermind "adequacy-plus".

A reminder
https://ec.europa.eu/info/law/law-topic/data-protection/data-transfers-outside-eu/adequacy-protection-personal-data-non-eu-countries_en

The European Commission has so far recognised Andorra, Argentina, Canada (commercial organisations), Faroe Islands, Guernsey, Israel, Isle of Man, Jersey, New Zealand, Switzerland, Uruguay and the US (limited to the Privacy Shield framework) as providing adequate protection.

Adequacy talks are ongoing with Japan and South Korea.

The Isle of Man is going for this gap in the market.

As a Crown dependency, the Isle of Man works with the UK but doesn't live by its rules.
...
Although Brexit will inevitably affect it, there's a hope that it will offer a more stable business environment than the UK.

J Mysterio

Roanmore wrote: »

From the Sky News website, think they're running it on the main news as well

https://news.sky.com/story/european-businesses-advised-to-avoid-using-british-parts-ahead-of-brexit-11395908

Big blow for the UK car industry, this quote stood out for me:
"The hard Brexiteers have built a bomb under the UK automotive industry and the EU have lit it," said one chief executive.

Parts made in the UK will no longer be counted as EU parts after Brexit, to count towards EU Free Trade deals parts approx 55% of the parts must come from the EU.

Interesting facts/ figures, but really, the UK built the bomb and lit it themselves.

dublinbuster

Theresa May has pushed it back to October, when the weather starts to turn cold
USA is kicking up a fuss about the nord stream gas pipe line, not one bit happy , putting pressure on certain EU countries.
Trump on record as not a fan of EU integration, would like it broke up.

Theresa May will tell Brussels give us a deal or we will back USA/Israel in mid east war escalation, price of oil will skyrocket, lead to civil unrest across the EU.
Italy with a Fuel crisis this winter, no way the EU will allow that ticking time bomb to be set ,the UK will get a deal,

Professor Moriarty

dublinbuster wrote: »

Theresa May has pushed it back to October, when the weather starts to turn cold
USA is kicking up a fuss about the nord stream gas pipe line, not one bit happy , putting pressure on certain EU countries.
Trump on record as not a fan of EU integration, would like it broke up.

Theresa May will tell Brussels give us a deal or we will back USA/Israel in mid east war escalation, price of oil will skyrocket, lead to civil unrest across the EU.
Italy with a Fuel crisis this winter, no way the EU will allow that ticking time bomb to be set ,the UK will get a deal,

"Theresa May will tell Brussels give us a deal or we will back USA/Israel in mid east war escalation, price of oil will skyrocket, lead to civil unrest across the EU."

Jaysus. You think May will say that to Barnier? Okay. What do you think Barnier would say in response?

ancapailldorcha

Enough of the one-liners please.

Professor Moriarty

dublinbuster wrote: »

Deleted post.

So he then goes to the other 27 countries and says: May has us all by the balls. She's going to join Israel and the US in causing a huge war in the Middle East which will spread across Europe. Or we can accede to her demands on trade.

What will the 27 countries say in response?

Rain Ascending

dublinbuster wrote: »

Theresa May will tell Brussels give us a deal or we will back USA/Israel in mid east war escalation, price of oil will skyrocket, lead to civil unrest across the EU.

Not going to happen.

Tony Blair, starting from a position of much greater popularity, ended up being reviled in the UK for supporting a US president who was a lot less despised than the current incumbent in the White House. And then Blair's reasons for going to war in Iraq were a lot less self-serving than those proposed for Theresa May in your theory.

The UK population is very aware of that history. So is Theresa May.

mickoneill31

Roanmore wrote: »

From the Sky News website, think they're running it on the main news as well

https://news.sky.com/story/european-businesses-advised-to-avoid-using-british-parts-ahead-of-brexit-11395908

Big blow for the UK car industry, this quote stood out for me:
"The hard Brexiteers have built a bomb under the UK automotive industry and the EU have lit it," said one chief executive.

Parts made in the UK will no longer be counted as EU parts after Brexit, to count towards EU Free Trade deals parts approx 55% of the parts must come from the EU.

Companies are changing their supply chains and work practices now. They're not doing this because it's easy or cheap. Even if Brexit is stopped or delayed it's unlikely that they'll go through the effort to reverse this work. They probably would over several years but that'd be business as usual work rather than a major project.
No matter how inept the Irish government ever seems to be we can now look over at the UKs as an example of what it's really like to have an incompetent government. If their remit was to mess it up I'm not sure if they could do a better job.

dublinbuster

Rain Ascending wrote: »

Not going to happen.

Tony Blair, starting from a position of much greater popularity, ended up being reviled in the UK for supporting a US president who was a lot less despised than the current incumbent in the White House. And then Blair's reasons for going to war in Iraq were a lot less self-serving than those proposed for Theresa May in your theory.

The UK population is very aware of that history. So is Theresa May.

a few more muslim terror attacks in UK/EU and the public wont give a hoot if Israel is on the warpath in middle east supported by US/UK.
The price of oil will skyrocket, along with problems to keep EU/Euro alive.

Charles Babbage

dublinbuster wrote: »

a few more muslim terror attacks in UK/EU and the public wont give a hoot if Israel is on the warpath in middle east supported by US/UK.
The price of oil will skyrocket, along with problems to keep EU/Euro alive.

If the price of oil skyrockets, the Scots will leave the UK.

Mtx

dublinbuster wrote: »

Rain Ascending wrote: »

Not going to happen.

Tony Blair, starting from a position of much greater popularity, ended up being reviled in the UK for supporting a US president who was a lot less despised than the current incumbent in the White House. And then Blair's reasons for going to war in Iraq were a lot less self-serving than those proposed for Theresa May in your theory.

The UK population is very aware of that history. So is Theresa May.

a few more muslim terror attacks in UK/EU and the public wont give a hoot if Israel is on the warpath in middle east supported by US/UK.
The price of oil will skyrocket, along with problems to keep EU/Euro alive.

Bombs in the UK will increase the price of oil? Not sure how that's possible..
I would be more worried about Saudi Arabia than Israel.

Capt'n Midnight

dublinbuster wrote: »

Theresa May has pushed it back to October, when the weather starts to turn cold
USA is kicking up a fuss about the nord stream gas pipe line, not one bit happy , putting pressure on certain EU countries.
Trump on record as not a fan of EU integration, would like it broke up.

Theresa May will tell Brussels give us a deal or we will back USA/Israel in mid east war escalation, price of oil will skyrocket, lead to civil unrest across the EU.
Italy with a Fuel crisis this winter, no way the EU will allow that ticking time bomb to be set ,the UK will get a deal,

WUT ?

We're now getting more than half of our gas from the Corrib and Inch and could put the Southwest Kinsale gas storage system back in use. This isn't the bad old days where most of our gas came from the UK.

The UK is at the end of the Norwegian and Russian gas pipelines which can be turned off faster than ships take to get from the Middle East to the oil refineries, process it and ship the fuel on. The US LNG ships will sail to whoever pays them be it the UK or Lithuania.

Higher fuel costs would not be good for the UK given the low consumer confidence there, so it's not exactly a credible treat.
Petrol prices rose by 6p a litre in May - the biggest monthly increase since the RAC began tracking prices 18 years ago.

The RAC said a "punitive combination" of higher crude oil prices and a weaker pound was to blame for the increases.
...
The RAC said the average prices of both petrol and diesel had risen every single day since 22 April, adding 8p a litre in the process. The motoring body said this was the longest sustained price increase since March 2015.

dublinbuster

Charles Babbage wrote: »

If the price of oil skyrockets, the Scots will leave the UK.

postal votes will keep them in, do a little research about it, Scotland is going nowhere

dublinbuster

Mtx wrote: »

Bombs in the UK will increase the price of oil? Not sure how that's possible..
I would be more worried about Saudi Arabia than Israel.

Do you think after a few Muslim terrorist attacks in the UK, with the news saturated with stories and video of dead children the UK population will be out protesting the UK bombing the middle east.
The population of the UK would not give a hoot, it would be seen as pay back, the price of oil would skyrocket, the EU would be backed into a corner

dublinbuster

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

The US LNG ships will sail to whoever pays them be it the UK or Lithuania.
L]

The US LNG ships will go wherever the US government tells them to go.
Trump is not a fan of the EU, thats a fact.

"If you dont give us a deal ,we will support the US and Israel in a mid east war, best of luck keeping the EU/EURO alive when the price of oil skyrockets"

Capt'n Midnight

dublinbuster wrote: »

The US LNG ships will go wherever the US government tells them to go.
Trump is not a fan of the EU, thats a fact.

"If you dont give us a deal ,we will support the US and Israel in a mid east war, best of luck keeping the EU/EURO alive when the price of oil skyrockets"

Please tell us your verison of Trump vs ZTE.

They broke all teh rules, trading with North Korea, and a national security technologlica threat, but Trump has got them off the hook because they have US suppliers. ie. those LNG ships will sail to where they can sell.


Currently the Euro is the second currency world wide after the Dollar. If oil starts to get traded in Euros that's a huge threat to the US.

Anthracite

I think what we are seeing is a reaction to the realisation that the UK, the UK government and, to a lesser extent, the UK populace, have become an international laughing stock. That can't be pleasant.

J Mysterio

It's fascinating to see the UK parliamentarians actually taking an interest in Northern Ireland and quite bizarre really, to see they are all consumed with NI abortion law. Ireland had to have a referendum before it occurred to any of them that NI is quite backwards. Abortion, gay marraige, whatever. And the conservatives in bed with those who keep NI backward.

I'd wager a good half of parliament had (many still have) no understanding of NI, it's relationship to the UK and Ireland and the border. They can't get enough of it now.

Unbelievably, they are now discussing running roughshod over the democratic process of a devolved government. Classic England. The irony is lost on them I think.

The reporting should be interesting on this in the next few days, from all perspectives.

Anthracite

J Mysterio wrote: »

Unbelievably, they are now discussing running roughshod over the democratic process of a devolved government. Classic England. The irony is lost on them I think.

I don't think the UK subscribes to the EU principle of subsidiarity, and let's be honest, the whole notion of 'Britishness' was basically the English establishment's way of co-opting soldiers and resources from Scotland, Ireland and Wales.

Peregrinus

dublinbuster wrote: »

postal votes will keep them in, do a little research about it, Scotland is going nowhere

Because they reckon their best interests lie in remaining in a country governed by a women who foments internal terrorism in order to find an excuse to participate in a war alongside Donald Trump with the objective of alienating her country's closest neighbours?

You forget that the Scots are proverbially canny, dublinbuster. They do not hate their country. They voted against Brexit, remember. Your belief in their stupidity is not supported by the evidence.

Thanks dublinbuster for showing us just how desperate the Brexit crowd are.

"All we need is some Muslim terrorists killing our people. That will let us ramp up war in the Middle East, and threaten the EU with higher oil prices. EZ Win GG."

Infini

dublinbuster wrote: »

postal votes will keep them in, do a little research about it, Scotland is going nowhere

Scotland is gone if there's a Hard Brexit, make no mistake they voted to remain emphatically and were overruled by little England and the welsh. They had a referendum on Independence and one of the reasons for voting to remain united was EU membership, something which is about to be taken away from them against their will and only a few short years after looking to keep it as such.

Bigus

dublinbuster wrote: »

a few more muslim terror attacks in UK/EU and the public wont give a hoot if Israel is on the warpath in middle east supported by US/UK.
The price of oil will skyrocket, along with problems to keep EU/Euro alive.

The days of high oil prices is a busted flush in 2018 , as a result of alternative renewable energies such as wind( as high as 65% of Ireland's total electricity requirements sometimes), solar and energy storage along with much more efficient ICE and even electric cars.
High oil prices would only hasten role out of these alternatives, ultimately collapsing the price forever which is not in the oil producers interest.

Interesting theory all the same dublinbuster to bring some logic to Brexit. If it's worse for us we'll make sure it's a disaster for you , type of logic .

Peregrinus

Interesting article on politico.eu about divisions in the Tory Brexiteer camp, and the loss of controlwhich this has caused them.

Basically, the article suggests, Brexiteers are divided between:

(a) accepting the kind of deal May will go for, which keeps the UK fairly closely aligned with the EU, in the hope that they can diverge more in the future, or

(b) holding out for a harder brexit at the outset, but thereby risking "political turmoil and the possibility of no Brexit at all".

May has been able to exploit these divisions to cling to office, and even to bring some of the harder Brexiters to a point where they feel constrained to accept things that six months or a year ago they were denouncing.