Brexit discussion thread III

Blowfish

Roanmore wrote: »

From the Sky News website, think they're running it on the main news as well

https://news.sky.com/story/european-businesses-advised-to-avoid-using-british-parts-ahead-of-brexit-11395908

Big blow for the UK car industry, this quote stood out for me:
"The hard Brexiteers have built a bomb under the UK automotive industry and the EU have lit it," said one chief executive.

Parts made in the UK will no longer be counted as EU parts after Brexit, to count towards EU Free Trade deals parts approx 55% of the parts must come from the EU.

I wouldn't mind, but that's been known since the start. It's the exact reason that the UK copy/pasting the trade deals the EU has with other countries simply won't work. 55% of the car would then need to be made in the UK which the UK simply isn't capable of doing right now.

Anthracite

Peregrinus wrote: »

May has been able to exploit these divisions to cling to office, and even to bring some of the harder Brexiters to a point where they feel constrained to accept things that six months or a year ago they were denouncing.

Things like reality?

Roanmore wrote: »

From the Sky News website, think they're running it on the main news as well

https://news.sky.com/story/european-businesses-advised-to-avoid-using-british-parts-ahead-of-brexit-11395908

Big blow for the UK car industry, this quote stood out for me:
"The hard Brexiteers have built a bomb under the UK automotive industry and the EU have lit it," said one chief executive.

Parts made in the UK will no longer be counted as EU parts after Brexit, to count towards EU Free Trade deals parts approx 55% of the parts must come from the EU.

It would be more accurate to suggest that the UK has put a bomb under the UK automotive industry and plans to light it despite everyone telling them that bombs are bad for automotive, and other, industries.

Enzokk

Peregrinus wrote: »

Interesting article on politico.eu about divisions in the Tory Brexiteer camp, and the loss of controlwhich this has caused them.

Basically, the article suggests, Brexiteers are divided between:

(a) accepting the kind of deal May will go for, which keeps the UK fairly closely aligned with the EU, in the hope that they can diverge more in the future, or

(b) holding out for a harder brexit at the outset, but thereby risking "political turmoil and the possibility of no Brexit at all".

May has been able to exploit these divisions to cling to office, and even to bring some of the harder Brexiters to a point where they feel constrained to accept things that six months or a year ago they were denouncing.

I don't know if we are missing something here. We have all the indications that the EU will not accept the fudge that Theresa May is proposing in the article. She is putting this forward to outflank the ERG in the Conservatives and as you point out keep her in the big seat.

Of course, even if the prime minister manages to get her Cabinet to agree, she is yet to secure the backing of Brussels, where EU officials and diplomats say the U.K.’s latest proposal is dead on arrival. The U.K. parliament, too, could yet force May to change tack over customs — or something else.

But, despite all the noise, May and her team believe they have found a fudge that the majority of her Cabinet can stomach, partly because some pro-Leave Tories didn’t realize what was happening, because others came around to May’s approach, and because the rest did not have a plan to stop it.

In short, Brexiteers lost control of Brexit.

What happens when the EU tells the UK the policy will not work? What does that do for her internal politics? Or does she have indications from the EU that they are willing to compromise?

Peregrinus

Enzokk wrote: »

I don't know if we are missing something here. We have all the indications that the EU will not accept the fudge that Theresa May is proposing in the article. She is putting this forward to outflank the ERG in the Conservatives and as you point out keep her in the big seat.



What happens when the EU tells the UK the policy will not work? What does that do for her internal politics? Or does she have indications from the EU that they are willing to compromise?

I think the subtext of the thing is that Teresa May is slowly dragging the party in a softer direction and, while she hasn't yet got to a point where she can get the party to accept an operational, functional Brexit agreement (i.e. one the EU can actually agree to) given enough time, she might get there.

She's also helped by shifting public opinion (which also takes time). People are becoming more relaxed about immigration, and more worried about the practical implications of hard Brexit, and this makes a softer Brexit more politically acceptable to Tory voters, as well as to the party.

Frankly, that she will eventually get the party to where it needs to be is by no means a certainty. But what has the EU got to lose by giving her the opportunity to try? That, at any right, is the thinking behind the actions of those "close to the Prime Minister" who, I have no doubt, spoke to politico journalists to facilitate this article.

blanch152

Bigus wrote: »

The days of high oil prices is a busted flush in 2018 , as a result of alternative renewable energies such as wind( as high as 65% of Ireland's total electricity requirements sometimes), solar and energy storage along with much more efficient ICE and even electric cars.
High oil prices would only hasten role out of these alternatives, ultimately collapsing the price forever which is not in the oil producers interest.

Interesting theory all the same dublinbuster to bring some logic to Brexit. If it's worse for us we'll make sure it's a disaster for you , type of logic .

Agreed on high oil prices. Every time the oil price rises, the focus on renewable energy intensifies, and the oil price drops, but with less potential for rises. High oil prices artificially propped up by producers are now self-defeating in the medium term thanks to the possible alternatives.

An Ciarraioch

Two interesting developments this morning - 12 Tory MPs have tabled an amendment calling for the UK to remain in the EEA by joining EFTA, the drawback for us being they would be barred from membership of a customs union.

Meanwhile, Sam Coates reports that the new backstop will be published tomorrow, will be much the same as the leaked one, but the time limit will be diluted, only ending if/when an alternative solution can be implemented.

LeinsterDub

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Meanwhile, Sam Coates reports that the new backstop will be published tomorrow, will be much the same as the leaked one, but the time limit will be diluted, only ending if/when an alternative solution can be implemented.

Isn't that the same as the December backstop? I don't see the difference apart from the fact they've used the word time limit?

trellheim

trouble at mill : dd speaking now at rusi lets see if its into the chaos we go

trellheim

right its aggro so

https://www.alphaoffshore.net/british-pm-may-in-serious-row-with-brexit-minister-david-davis-over-irish-border-backstop-plan-ft/

oh dear

followup https://www.forexlive.com/news/!/theresa-may-in-serious-row-with-david-davis-report-20180606

May had planned to send the plan to Brussels this week, possibly as soon as Wednesday, but she was forced to put it on hold after Mr Davis led a rebellion by Eurosceptic cabinet ministers," the report says.

The plan didn't make it clear that any border-smoothing moves would be temporary and Davis felt it could leave Britain in the EU indefinitely.

May leaves for the G7 in Canada this afternoon.

Update: Comments from a UK govt spokesman are now crossing the wires. He says the government will publish the backstop plan for Northern Ireland 'soon'. The BBC also reports that the plan is coming today so it's possible May has told Davis that she's going ahead with it despite his objections

trellheim

ok just hit the Guardian and others as well.

briany

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Meanwhile, Sam Coates reports that the new backstop will be published tomorrow, will be much the same as the leaked one, but the time limit will be diluted, only ending if/when an alternative solution can be implemented.

To me, this sounds acceptable. I can see how Arlene and co. would have an issue with it, but maybe the British government could sweeten the deal a little by promising a few extra political concessions to the DUP on matters domestic.

Anthracite

He says he wants to concentrate on one aspect of the new partnership the UK wants with the EU after Brexit - that is, the need for the partnership to stand the test of time.

That is why they UK has avoided briefing against the EU, he says. It wants to ensure the two sides can have a relationship of trust after Brexit.

He says the new relationship should not ignore the decades of trust and collaboration that has existed for years.

Cooperation has kept the peace and kept people secure.

He says the UK does not need to be in the EU for that cooperation to continue.

But it does need trust, he says.

Anyone who doubts that does not know their British history, he says.

What is Davis threatening here? What a prat, bleating about the EU putting principle over pragmatism. Has he heard about Brexit?

trellheim

Fury over Galileo ( but in all honesty what did he expect here ? )

Anthracite

trellheim wrote: »

Fury over Galileo ( but in all honesty what did he expect here ? )

Presumably the rules around Galileo that the UK shaped and signed off on were for other, less imperial countries.

An Ciarraioch

This is bizarre - Davis confirms backstop will be published imminently, but follows up by saying he doesn't expect a resolution until October!

Leroy42

So basically DD has laid all the problems in the negotiations at the feet of the EU for putting legal issues ahead of pragmatism (he said it in terms of security but IMO it covers the whole show).

Kermit.de.frog

It's all happening as we all suspected it would.

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1004386250512576517

https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1004387189915095040

Nody

Saw this comment on an Indo article and I think it sums things up quite well atm:

Too bad. The current PM is so busy ensuring her survival that she has little time to compromise with the EU. The EU itself is -by its very nature- a commitee organisation: they follow a rule book and decisions such as Brexit rely on unanimous approval from the government of the member states. Which means that there is a lack of flexibility or boldness to tackle the problem. It is more difficult to try to solve the problem than coping with it. And this is why, unless the Brexiteers decide to make bold decisions, the UK is very likely to crash out of the EU. Everybody will lament the outcome, and nobody will own the decision.

Strazdas

Nody wrote: »

Saw this comment on an Indo article and I think it sums things up quite well atm:

The EU cannot compromise or do any wheeling and dealing. It's a rules based organisation for 28 countries and 500m people. If they started tearing up their own rule book to accommodate individual external countries, the whole thing would fall apart.

It would be like trying to join a club but insisting that the club change their rules in order to allow you to join, because you are not happy with their current rules.

An Ciarraioch

Peter Foster acidly skewers the backstop before it's even released:

https://mobile.twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1004404954747097088

Capt'n Midnight

UK not attracting as many fruit pickers. Sterling has fallen. Even if it hadn't Romania's economy is growing 6.9% a year so the UK is looking less attractive all the time. Now add in uncertainy about documents etc.

European fruit pickers shun Britain

Over half of recruitment companies could not find the labour even in the "quiet" first months of this year, the Association of Labour Providers says
...
Ninety-nine percent of seasonal workers on British farms come from Eastern Europe. Two-thirds of these come from Romania and Bulgaria.

Kermit.de.frog

Merkel seems miffed too

https://twitter.com/MaireadMcGMEP/status/1004413322043764738

Kermit.de.frog

https://twitter.com/ImIncorrigible/status/1004420793969840130



Davis reported to be refusing to present backstop plan tomorrow.

dublinbuster

The UK "plan" is text book Sun Tzu art of war

dublinbuster

dublinbuster wrote: »

The UK "plan" is text book Sun Tzu art of war

'defeated warriors go to war first and then seek to win'?

An Ciarraioch

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

https://twitter.com/ImIncorrigible/status/1004420793969840130



Davis reported to be refusing to present backstop plan tomorrow.

Combined with Peston's Spectator blog, it all suggests he has decided to quit post-haste:

https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2018/06/will-david-davis-resign-tomorrow-i-would-not-bet-against-it/

Kermit.de.frog

BoJo not happy...

https://twitter.com/nicholaswatt/status/1004423394673283077

Also...it's not even being debated apparently...


https://twitter.com/nicholaswatt/status/1004423056335437825

trellheim

In worse news Paul Dacre is stepping down. Something must have happened with Brexit

Infini

Well if the bullshíteers quit en mass then "cheerio, cheerio, cheerio!"

If May has decided to commit to the backstop because of absolutely no other realistic option then it basically mean's that there is some progress and those who keep shítstirring when they have absolutely no facts or anything to back up their position can either "put up or shut up". It could also be her own way of basically saying "Go ahead and challenge me if you dare" because if she win's she's the one in control and if she loses then she no longer owns the problem but it falls on the likes of Mogg's, Boris and Gove who get to fall on their sword when they ultimately fúck up and take what's left of Britain down the toilet.

Professor Moriarty

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

https://twitter.com/ImIncorrigible/status/1004420793969840130



Davis reported to be refusing to present backstop plan tomorrow.

All politicians rise to their level of incompetence. Davis is out of his depth and is flouncing so he can blame May. To be fair, nobody could do his job anyway. He was still incompetent though.

Thargor

Twitter thread where the Leave.EU guy basically calls Johnson/Mogg Davis etc a load of charlatans:

https://twitter.com/PeteNorth303/status/1003992951557681152?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.reddit.com%2Fr%2Fukpolitics%2F

I think they're starting to feel the crunch coming.

An Ciarraioch

Laura Kuenssberg now tweeting that the backstop proposal will not now be sent to Brussels tonight - your average Irish county council is better run than this:

https://mobile.twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1004455939137732615

J Mysterio

Thargor wrote: »

Twitter thread where the Leave.EU guy basically calls Johnson/Mogg Davis etc a load of charlatans:

https://twitter.com/PeteNorth303/status/1003992951557681152?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.reddit.com%2Fr%2Fukpolitics%2F

I think they're starting to feel the crunch coming.

He makes some good points. This is basically a man who has come to the realisation he had been sold a pup. Articulates it well though.

An Ciarraioch

Tomorrow's Telegraph:

https://mobile.twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1004466339703148544/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fforums.digitalspy.com%2Fdiscussion%2F2284623%2Fdavis-losing-the-plot-chaos-all-around%2Fp4

EdgeCase

dublinbuster wrote: »

The UK "plan" is text book Sun Tzu art of war

I’m not entirely convinced that there ever has been a UK plan beyond holding a referendum that was assumed to be rubber stamping of the status quo.

ancapailldorcha

No more name calling please. Posts deleted.

Peregrinus

J Mysterio wrote: »

He makes some good points. This is basically a man who has come to the realisation he had been sold a pup. Articulates it well though.

He's the editor of Leave HQ. What he writes here make sense, but the implication is not that he has been sold a pup; it's that he has been selling a pup.

In some ways he's more culpable than Brexiters who are simply idiots. He knows that a viable Brexit has yet to be developed, but he has been promoting Brexit anyway in the belief that its someone else's responsibility to develop it, not his.

Peregrinus

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Combined with Peston's Spectator blog, it all suggests he has decided to quit post-haste:

https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2018/06/will-david-davis-resign-tomorrow-i-would-not-bet-against-it/

Political Editor of the Sun (a paper which generally seems to be, um, well-connected to "sources close to Mr Davis") says Davis is telling his friends he will not resign:
https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1004416869267320833

Laura Kuenssberg of the BBC also says he won't resign:
https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1004418027344089090

Still, if he did resign, what do boardies think would happen? I think other Brexiters in cabinet would have to go too, and this would lead to a leadership heave in the Tory party.

Even if May were to survive this - and she very well might - it would mean taking more time that cannot now be spared out, to deal with leadership issues instead of working on Withdrawal Agreement.

Nody

Peregrinus wrote: »

Still, if he did resign, what do boardies think would happen? I think other Brexiters in cabinet would have to go too, and this would lead to a leadership heave in the Tory party.

Even if May were to survive this - and she very well might - it would mean taking more time that cannot now be spared out, to deal with leadership issues instead of working on Withdrawal Agreement.

Nope; they would simply insist on him being replaced with another brexiteer instead; perhaps some shuffling around or giving the responsibility to Boris or similar. The part that amuses me though is they are fighting over the wording on a solution EU has already told them (unofficially) is going to be rejected. It does not matter if it does not have an end date because EU will reject it; so why the huffing and puffing?

Peregrinus

Can't resist this one:

https://twitter.com/brheading/status/1004442055031091200

Peregrinus

Nody wrote: »

Nope; they would simply insist on him being replaced with another brexiteer instead; perhaps some shuffling around or giving the responsibility to Boris or similar. The part that amuses me though is they are fighting over the wording on a solution EU has already told them (unofficially) is going to be rejected. It does not matter if it does not have an end date because EU will reject it; so why the huffing and puffing?

I dunno. If Davis goes because he is required by May to work for a Brexit that isn't Brexity enough, how can other remainers stay in cabinet and work for the same Brexit? Whoever May appoints to the vacancy has to be prepared to do what Davis has just refused to do. That's kind of awkward, and invites accusations of being a sellout. Plus, May would undoubtedly take the opportunity to say that any other cabinet minister who shares Davis's view should take the opportunity to say so, and walk.

Any Brexiter resigning from cabinet because he refuses to support the PM's vision of Brexit brings matters to a head; other Brexiters must either do the same, or be seen to engage in a humiliating climbdown, backing what Davis refused to back. My guess is that they'd do the same, and then immediately mount a leadership challenge. What else could they do, with any credibility?

McGiver

Norwegian PM in Brussels saying UK can't be cherry-picking and also saying soft Brexit makes no sense.

https://www.politico.eu/article/norwegian-pm-uk-cannot-cherry-pick-eu-membership/

mickoneill31

Peregrinus wrote: »

What else could they do, with any credibility?

Is credibility a big concern for any in the UK government these days? We have examples every week of outright lies.

I listen to a few podcasts to do with brexit and two of them have a section called lie of the week. They normally have several runners up.

Kermit.de.frog

IDS speaking this morning...

https://twitter.com/talkRADIO/status/1004638802231558144


Decoded - "we need to threaten Ireland, who do they think they are, EU puppets etc..."

mickoneill31

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

IDS speaking this morning...

https://twitter.com/talkRADIO/status/1004638802231558144

Well that moment came when the UK came out with the contradictory red lines. What was that? About day 1?

Anthracite

The interviewer there giving a classic example of not challenging any of the premises of the Brexiteers and tossing nice questions to them that fit in with the narrative of their fantasy world.

Kermit.de.frog

Anthracite wrote: »

The interviewer there giving a classic example of not challenging any of the premises of the Brexiteers and tossing nice questions to them that fit in with the narrative of their fantasy world.

The Brexiteer narrative is that ireland is so hopelessly dependent on the UK for it's trade that they don't get how an Irish gov would dare side with anyone else.

This is actually not the case but it suit their argument.

Also there is an element of just shock at the extent to which Ireland has taken it's own approach with the support of the EU that seems alien to them. Like they don't respect Ireland's own right to protect it's own interests.

Professor Moriarty

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

The Brexiteer narrative is that ireland is so hopelessly dependent on the UK for it's trade that they don't get how an Irish gov would dare side with anyone else.

This is actually not the case but it suit their argument.

Also there is an element of just shock at the extent to which Ireland has taken it's own approach with the support of the EU that seems alien to them. Like they don't respect Ireland's own right to protect it's own interests.

I wonder do they realise that their exports to us are worth $25 billion whereas our exports to them are worth $18 billion.

Kermit.de.frog

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

I wonder do they realise that their exports to us are worth $25 billion whereas our exports to them are worth $18 billion.

Mostly they don't know because they couldn't be bothered with basic research.

Also this is the post Trump election world.

Fact does not come in to it so long as you have your own facts.

Anthracite

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

I wonder do they realise that their exports to us are worth $25 billion whereas our exports to them are worth $18 billion.

Brexit logic therefore suggests that we hold the upper hand here and that UK car makers will force the UK to back down and agree to whatever we demand.