Brexit discussion thread III

Anthracite

If I was the IDA, I'd be lobbying the hell out of Japanese car makers to establish a base of manufacturing in the EU.

Zubeneschamali

26. The UK is clear that the temporary customs arrangement, should it be needed, should be time limited, and that it will be only in place until the future customs arrangement can be introduced.

If you cross out the waffly wishy bits, it says:

The UK is clear that the temporary customs arrangement will be in place until the future customs arrangement can be introduced.


Which is perfectly fine.

Sam Russell

Anthracite wrote: »

If I was the IDA, I'd be lobbying the hell out of Japanese car makers to establish a base of manufacturing in the EU.

That would be unnecessary. If the UK leaves the SM, then cars exported from the UK to the EU will not be imported into the EU tariff free if their content is not more than 55% UK manufacture - which currently they are not. However, EU cars will be over 55% manufactured in the EU so will be imported tariff free.

So Brexiteers can continue to buy their German luxury cars tariff free, but the EU will not be able to buy their UK produced Hondas, Toyotas, Opel Astras, or Opel/Renault/Nissan vans tariff free. The EU van purchasers will have to buy Fiat or Mercedes or VW or Peugeot vans instead. 10% extra is a lot on a van.

An Ciarraioch

Coveney issues a "holding" response:

https://mobile.twitter.com/dfatirl/status/1004708843434184704

An Ciarraioch

Coveney issues a "holding" response:

https://mobile.twitter.com/dfatirl/status/1004708843434184704

Professor Moriarty

Here's an analysis of Barnier's response. Not exactly being welcomed with open arms.

1) “Is it a workable solution to avoid a hard border?” Barnier seems to be pointing out that the document published today only covers the customs element of the backstop. The backstop plan set out in the December joint report by the UK and the EU (pdf) said the backstop would have to involve “full alignment with those rules of the internal market and the customs union”. In other words, it would have to go further than just remaining an effective member of the customs union.

2) “Does it respect the integrity of the SM/CU [single market/customs union]?” This is a similar point. But whenever Barnier talks about the “integrity” of the single market, he tends to be referring to accepting European court of justice rulings. Today’s document (pdf) does include a passage on dispute resolution, but it does not go as far as saying the UK would continue to be bound by ECJ rulings while the backstop was operating.

3) “Is it an all-weather backstop?” This seems to be a way of asking whether it would last as long as necessary. The UK government says clearly (see 1.44pm) that it expects it would only last for a year.

Anthracite

Sam Russell wrote: »

That would be unnecessary. If the UK leaves the SM, then cars exported from the UK to the EU will not be imported into the EU tariff free if their content is not more than 55% UK manufacture - which currently they are not. However, EU cars will be over 55% manufactured in the EU so will be imported tariff free.

So Brexiteers can continue to buy their German luxury cars tariff free, but the EU will not be able to buy their UK produced Hondas, Toyotas, Opel Astras, or Opel/Renault/Nissan vans tariff free. The EU van purchasers will have to buy Fiat or Mercedes or VW or Peugeot vans instead. 10% extra is a lot on a van.

Indeed. So dear Honda, build your new factory in Ireland and sell to the EU tariff free.

EdgeCase

Dymo wrote: »

This sentance



And then this


What if there new partners aren't up to EU standards?

That where the wheels fall off.

French farmers are already assuming that it will be used to undermine them and were calling for a hard border back in 2017.

LeinsterDub

https://twitter.com/guyverhofstadt/status/1004732828863647744?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theguardian.com%2Fpolitics%2Fblog%2Flive%2F2018%2Fjun%2F07%2Fformer-brexit-minister-says-mays-backstop-plan-extremely-damaging-for-britain-politics-live

Guy Verhofstadt say's its not workable . All the effort and strive in the cabinet and the proposal doesn't even stay viable for an hour.

Sierra Oscar

It's not a backstop if it's time limited. Sure the whole point of a backstop is to provide a clearly defined acceptable fall back position should negotiations fail / run on indefinitely.

We're heading for a hard Brexit if this nonsense continues.

judeboy101

Despite what people think about the British politicians, the British civil service are no fools. They are sneaky.

Panrich

judeboy101 wrote: »

Despite what people think about the British politicians, the British civil service are no fools. They are sneaky.

The problem that they have is that there is no political direction to follow and therefore cannot work effectively. The EU side has all it's homework done well in advance and the position has remained stable and on message politically since the outset.

It's impossible to see the UK civil service creating any coherent plans (sneaky or otherwise) out of the political mess that they're working with.

flatty

Panrich wrote: »

judeboy101 wrote: »

Despite what people think about the British politicians, the British civil service are no fools. They are sneaky.

The problem that they have is that there is no political direction to follow and therefore cannot work effectively. The EU side has all it's homework done well in advance and the position has remained stable and on message politically since the outset.

It's impossible to see the UK civil service creating any coherent plans (sneaky or otherwise) out of the political mess that they're working with.

I have been reliably informed that this is the case pretty much from the horses mouth. "never in my time have I seen such an absolute dearth of leadership" is a direct quote.

judeboy101

Panrich wrote: »

judeboy101 wrote: »

Despite what people think about the British politicians, the British civil service are no fools. They are sneaky.

The problem that they have is that there is no political direction to follow and therefore cannot work effectively. The EU side has all it's homework done well in advance and the position has remained stable and on message politically since the outset.

It's impossible to see the UK civil service creating any coherent plans (sneaky or otherwise) out of the political mess that they're working with.

They have just pulled a sneaky one. My reading of this is we keep a backstop, but its not really a backstop. It makes everyone look good, meanwhile they push out the day of reckoning in the hopes that the EU comes under internal pressures from some other source. And then they push hard.

LeinsterDub

judeboy101 wrote: »

They have just pulled a sneaky one. My reading of this is we keep a backstop, but its not really a backstop. It makes everyone look good, meanwhile they push out the day of reckoning in the hopes that the EU comes under internal pressures from some other source. And then they push hard.

They've pulled nothing . No one is fooled by this. EU has basically rejected it out of hand while maintaining language that's just diplomatic enough to pretend they are considering it.

maynooth_rules

LeinsterDub wrote: »

They've pulled nothing . No one is fooled by this. EU has basically rejected it out of hand while maintaining language that's just diplomatic enough to pretend they are considering it.

This. They have attempted yet another fudge and it will backfire spectacularly.

swampgas

The fact that there is so much in-fighting going on over the backstop agreement (by the UK) suggests very strongly that May and Davis expect they will have to use it. Which means they don't have any alternative.

If their current backstop proposal is rejected by the EU, the UK won't have a whole lot of time to pull together a realistic alternative. A hard, chaotic Brexit looks inevitable unless something seismic happens soon in UK politics.

Sam Russell

swampgas wrote: »

The fact that there is so much in-fighting going on over the backstop agreement (by the UK) suggests very strongly that May and Davis expect they will have to use it. Which means they don't have any alternative.

If their current backstop proposal is rejected by the EU, the UK won't have a whole lot of time to pull together a realistic alternative. A hard, chaotic Brexit looks inevitable unless something seismic happens soon in UK politics.

Or they just accept the original version as put forward in the legal text version of the December agreement. Of course that would involve a border down the Irish sea. They could dress that up as an extension of the existing phytosanitary and agriculture checks that already exist for imports into NI from the rest of the UK.

Small problem that 'No UK Prime Minister could accept a border on the Irish Sea'.

J Mysterio

Sam Russell wrote: »

Small problem that 'No UK Prime Minister could accept a border on the Irish Sea'.

Another thing inexplicably ruled out, another red line. It could be that today's drama was all a show to appease the DUP though. I genuinely wouldnt put it past them.

J Mysterio

Were I in the UK, I genuinely would create a store of canned food etc. Admittedly I am that sort though :pac:

Capt'n Midnight

McGiver wrote: »

Norwegian PM in Brussels saying UK can't be cherry-picking and also saying soft Brexit makes no sense.

https://www.politico.eu/article/norwegian-pm-uk-cannot-cherry-pick-eu-membership/

From back in May 2016 where she warns the UK about Norway's relationship with the EU https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-referendum-look-before-you-leap-norways-pm-tells-brexiteers/

While some in the U.K. see Norway’s looser relationship with the EU as a potential model for a post-Brexit Britain, Oslo sees a long list of drawbacks: losing influence in Brussels, being sidelined at meetings on defense policy, and having to accept EU rules in return for retaining access to the internal market.

“That type of connection is going to be difficult for Britain, because then Brussels will decide without the Brits being able to participate in the decision-making,” said Solberg.

Norway also has its own reasons for wanting Britain to vote “Remain” in its June 23 referendum on EU membership. Oslo has long relied on London’s free-market zeal to keep the EU’s interventionist instincts in check.

While in the EU the UK has some influence, outside it'll be a rule taker if it wants to trade with the EU. Trade with China or the US would also imply taking their rules.

Trasna1

judeboy101 wrote: »

They have just pulled a sneaky one. My reading of this is we keep a backstop, but its not really a backstop. It makes everyone look good, meanwhile they push out the day of reckoning in the hopes that the EU comes under internal pressures from some other source. And then they push hard.

But if we can see through the ruse, the negotiators are hardly going to be blind to it.

The UK is indeed playing for time, in the near certain eventuality that an external crisis will befall the continent

Capt'n Midnight

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

I never realised that car makers ran the EU. You learn something new every day.

The VDA is the Germany Auto Industry Association.

They've been warning anyone who'd listen that Merkel would put the EU ahead of their profits. And besides if the EU split up they'd have to deal with 27 different regulatory bodies and... And then Sterling dropped and UK car demand dropped so the UK is no longer as profitable as it was, and besides the costs of Brexit were dwarfed by the emissions scandal fines.

German car makers warning about UK jobs, from June 2016

“It would be a serious setback for the industry and would surely result in some production sites relocating.”

Enzokk

Theresa May still has the almost impossible job*. She had to get the Tory rebels to support her next week and she had to appease the Brexiteers from walking in her cabinet. Seeing that all is happy suggests this is a fudge that both sides will see sense in.

The problem at the moment is we are way past fudging to Brexit. The UK jad to have a path set out already, yet they are trying to keep all people happy in parliament. This serves no purpose other than keeping May in Downing Street. She will need to nail her colours to a mast soon and we should know which one she has chosen by seeing whether David Davis and Gove and Johnson resigns, or that the ERG are happy about the path chosen. At the moment we still are in limbo, less than a year before Brexit.

*She has made this an impossible job herself by not choosing a direction. She has gone under water and will probably surface once things has settled.

Capt'n Midnight

Anthracite wrote: »

If I was the IDA, I'd be lobbying the hell out of Japanese car makers to establish a base of manufacturing in the EU.

What a lot of people in the UK seem to have missed is that the EU and Japan finalised a trade agreement last year. They no longer need a UK car factories.

Soon the EU and Japan will be able to sell each other cars without the current tariffs. A car factory in Japan will have lower tariff access to the EU than one in the UK.

It also means the EU can export more cars to Japan which will keep the German car makers happy.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6-S_pH7CZH4

Capt'n Midnight

More Brexit knock on effects.

A working group has been set up to prepare for a possible influx of foreign people ending up homeless in Dublin after Brexit.

An Ciarraioch

Liam Fox:

"The Irish government, in particular, needs some time to sort out practicalities". ?!

https://mobile.twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1004782068767907840

KingNerolives

Imagine if that was Thatcher instead of may, she would have whipped the naysayers in her party into line with the authority of a leader! All the strong politicians are just a part of history now.

Spanish Eyes

I hope Leo and Simon are in a deep strategic convo right now.

And I hope Barnier stays the course with us and the Border too.

flatty

The EU will 100% back Ireland. Why wouldn't it? I honestly don't see why people are even vaguely concerned about this. The only people who should be genuinely worried are UK residents, especially those on the mainland. I can only predict a Scottish independence and an eventually chastened England Wales rump trying to gain readmission with no opt outs. It'll be the end of the empire thinking. In the interim the UK is in for a very rough ride.

Anthracite

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Liam Fox:

"The Irish government, in particular, needs some time to sort out practicalities". ?!

https://mobile.twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1004782068767907840

The UK is presenting the backstop as something we are currently negotiating for in exchange for a cushy deal for the UK that breaks EU rules. The backstop: a) was already agreed and b) it's what happens if there is NO agreement.

Again, is this sheer stupidity just for a domestic audience that is not really paying any attention?

Spanish Eyes

I am getting the feeling looking at forums in UK that they don't realise the implications of Brexit, or maybe they just do not care and it is Brexit at any price due to the hubris.

Some are making intelligent comments, but are shut down by, sorry, racist posts.

Brexit was predicated on racism. There is no other word for it.

But how it progresses is a mystery. There doesn't seem to be any plan at all.

Well the plan is for TM to survive at any cost, that's obvious.

Anthracite

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

I am getting the feeling looking at forums in UK that they don't realise the implications of Brexit, or maybe they just do not care and it is Brexit at any price due to the hubris.

I've posted on one and pointed out that the EU that they claim has been holding Britain's exporters back is the same EU that has allowed Germany to become the greatest exporting nation in the World.

As you can imagine, actual logic cuts no ice.

Enzokk

Reading the tweets related to Liam Fox from Faisal Islam in the last tweet in the series we have the following,

When I suggest to Fox that backstop time limit not binding, he tells me:
“There are proposals we will put the EU to make sure we finish on this time. We have to clear in time to clear a space for a GE... that election will be focusing on Britain’s future and not disentanglement”

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1004783528003948544?s=20

So that explains the date for the backstop. They want it to be sorted for the next General Election so it doesn't weigh on their necks when they have to explain to voters why they are worse off. Just talk about how much better the future will be and cry that their hands are tied.

In other news Paul Dacre has announced he will retire from editing the Daily Mail. What is interesting is that his replacement will be Geordie Greig who is currently editor of the Mail on Sunday, the sister paper of the Daily Mail. What makes this interesting is that while they are owned by the same owners the two papers had a markedly different attitude to Brexit. The Daily Mail is vehemently for Brexit and their headlines are well known about the EU. The Mail on Sunday is opposed to Brexit.

You have to wonder what this would do in Downing Street seeing that Dacre was the only editor that was entertained by the PM during her first six months in charge. I guess the question will be if this change will be enough to change the course they are trying to influence from the PM.

New Daily Mail editor to be Geordie Greig

Geordie Greig is to be the new editor of the Daily Mail, putting a staunch remainer in charge of one of the most pro-Brexit newspapers in the country.

The current Mail on Sunday boss will replace Paul Dacre, who is stepping down in November.

Spanish Eyes

Anthracite wrote: »

I've posted on one and pointed out that the EU that they claim has been holding Britain's exporters back is the same EU that has allowed Germany to become the greatest exporting nation in the World.

As you can imagine, actual logic cuts no ice.

I am getting a feeling that Remainers are being silenced somehow and it is all Rule Brittania. Everyone else is a traitor or something.

And I do realise, like on here that some forums require filtering, but still, the message is out there.

But many have said they have or are applying for Irish passports under the ancestry rule. OMG you would not believe the vitriol and the calls of traitors. Bearing in mind that many can get EU passports from lots of other countries too.

There seems to be an innate hatred of the Irish. Well I suppose they think Vlad and Coveney are speaking above their station on this!

Anyway, interesting times ahead.

flutered

J Mysterio wrote: »

Yes. So it's a 'transition period', which is not really a transition period but is essentially just an extension of negotiations until 2021m by which time they are hoping they can magic up another trick. Then.... more transition to implement new magic solution?


EU should really tell them to go to hell. It's the originally agreed backstop, or hard Brexit. Seriously getting fed up of this sh1te at this stage.


The backstop was - in the first place - a backstop. It was third of three options, inserted at EU's insistence in the event that the UK could not propose a better solution, which the EU could not see. It's obvious that the UK doesnt have a better solution, despite all their bleating for so long. so now back to the backstop and fudge that too? It shouldn't be allowed. The UK made their bed, now they need to lie in it.

the 2021 solution takes the torys to a 2022 election and all that that entails, truths submerged in smoke, waffle etc

CelticRambler

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

26. The UK is clear that the temporary customs arrangement, should it be needed, should be time limited, and that it will be only in place until the future customs arrangement can be introduced.

If you cross out the waffly wishy bits, it says:

The UK is clear that the temporary customs arrangement will be in place until the future customs arrangement can be introduced.


Which is perfectly fine.

They might want to re-learn how to use the English language too. "The UK is clear ... the UK is clear ... " Theresa May says "I have been clear ..." David Davis says "we have been clear ..."



If you have to keep telling people that you are, or have been, "clear" chances are you've been anything but. It's for others to decide whether you've been clear or not. :rolleyes:

An Ciarraioch

Sam Coates tweets a letter May sent to Tory MPs, with this being the most relevant section:

"The backstop would be part of the Withdrawal Agreement, so if we did not reach a deal, it would not apply."

Surely, the exact opposite applies, and it only takes effect if there's NO deal?

https://mobile.twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/1004764565014503432/photo/2

An Ciarraioch

Meanwhile, Johnson seems to think the Border is a small folly:

https://www.buzzfeed.com/amphtml/alexspence/boris-johnson-trump-brexit-leaked-recording?utm_term=.yt8DDKzVlW&__twitter_impression=true

LeinsterDub

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Sam Coates tweets a letter May sent to Tory MPs, with this being the most relevant section:

"The backstop would be part of the Withdrawal Agreement, so if we did not reach a deal, it would not apply."

Surely, the exact opposite applies, and it only takes effect if there's NO deal?

https://mobile.twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/1004764565014503432/photo/2

No the backstop applies if there is no deal on the Irish border. So in theory the GB could have a FTA with the EU while the North stays in the so called Irish Sea border.

In a nuclear brexit without even an agreement on things such as flights May is correct. It will not apply

briany

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Sam Coates tweets a letter May sent to Tory MPs, with this being the most relevant section:

"The backstop would be part of the Withdrawal Agreement, so if we did not reach a deal, it would not apply."

Surely, the exact opposite applies, and it only takes effect if there's NO deal?

https://mobile.twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/1004764565014503432/photo/2

I was of the understanding that the backstop would be implemented if the UK couldn't come up with a solution that satisfied both sides. This implies that an overall deal would still have been reached, however. If the UK walks out of talks and end up with no deal, then what onus is on them to stick to the backstop?

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Meanwhile, Johnson seems to think the Border is a small folly:

https://www.buzzfeed.com/amphtml/alexspence/boris-johnson-trump-brexit-leaked-recording?utm_term=.yt8DDKzVlW&__twitter_impression=true

More guff from the Guffmeister.

First Up

Today says more about May's weakness than anything else. The 2020 or 2021 thing is meaningless in EU terms. It is just the UK saying they hope that by then to have found a magic bullet.

But it allows Davis to pretend that by 2020 or 2021 they will have really delivered Brexit so he looks in charge. The fact that he is in charge of an out of control bus careering towards a cliff is lost on him.

Anthracite

First Up wrote: »

Today says more about May's weakness than anything else. The 2020 or 2021 thing is meaningless in EU terms. It is just the UK saying they hope that by then to have found a magic bullet.

But it allows Davis to pretend that by 2020 or 2021 they will have really delivered Brexit so he looks in charge. The fact that he is in charge of an out of control bus careering towards a cliff is lost on him.

And is any sort of extension of current arrangements for the _whole_ UK even on the table?

Kermit.de.frog

Government need to be cautious with this one.

This document only exists in this form for the benefit of Theresa May's cabinet.

It's language is too loose and it strikes me as increasingly duplicitous.

KingNerolives

If may has her cake and eats it, surely this redeeems her?

First Up

It looks loose and duplicitous because the Tories are promising two mutually exclusive things to two groups within their own party with incompatible objectives.

The EU will let them fight it out and then deal with whoever wins. The terms for Brexit will be settled before they leave and will not be revisited. Barnier has made this point and will re-make it as often as needed.

briany

Anthracite wrote: »

And is any sort of extension of current arrangements for the _whole_ UK even on the table?

I would have said no but the May seems keen on stringing this out. I would be, too, if, like her, I had no answer to the problem.

And maybe it's in the EU's interest to follow this train of thought, given the potential for economic disaster on both sides. Instead, just keep on drawing out the process and little by little deaden the enthusiasm for Brexit, while chipping off concessions from the British government until the train slowly creaks to a halt.

Kermit.de.frog

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Meanwhile, Johnson seems to think the Border is a small folly:

https://www.buzzfeed.com/amphtml/alexspence/boris-johnson-trump-brexit-leaked-recording?utm_term=.yt8DDKzVlW&__twitter_impression=true

So Ireland is "the tail wagging the dog".

Many of them believe that.

Capt'n Midnight

LeinsterDub wrote: »

In a nuclear brexit without even an agreement on things such as flights May is correct. It will not apply

U.K. Reaches Draft Deal to Ensure Nuclear Supply After Brexit or rather we'll find out later if they do.

The UK is investing heavily in nuclear.

Which doesn't have a record of being on budget or on time and has major political and financial risks.
Wylfa is set to cost at least £20bn and the UK government is taking a lot of the risk and the power, while cheaper than Hinkley C, is still way above the wholesale rate.

Add it all up and I wouldn't be surprised that Hinkley, Moorside and Wylfa will soak up about the same as the £8Bn nett for Brexit.


Meanwhile solar costs are expected to fall 34% this year.

PeadarCo

First Up wrote:

The EU will let them fight it out and then deal with whoever wins. The terms for Brexit will be settled before they leave and will not be revisited. Barnier has made this point and will re-make it as often as needed.

What happens if there is no winner in the internal UK debate before the Brexit deadline? It is crazy that these arguments are happening at this stage.

What's very concerning is that the reality of the situation has not hit home. Unless the argument for a soft brexit wins you have a hard/uncontrolled brexit as that is the default scenario.