Brexit discussion thread III

McGiver

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

McGiver wrote: »

Norwegian PM in Brussels saying UK can't be cherry-picking and also saying soft Brexit makes no sense.

https://www.politico.eu/article/norwegian-pm-uk-cannot-cherry-pick-eu-membership/

From back in May 2016 where she warns the UK about Norway's relationship with the EU https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-referendum-look-before-you-leap-norways-pm-tells-brexiteers/

While some in the U.K. see Norway’s looser relationship with the EU as a potential model for a post-Brexit Britain, Oslo sees a long list of drawbacks: losing influence in Brussels, being sidelined at meetings on defense policy, and having to accept EU rules in return for retaining access to the internal market.

“That type of connection is going to be difficult for Britain, because then Brussels will decide without the Brits being able to participate in the decision-making,” said Solberg.

Norway also has its own reasons for wanting Britain to vote “Remain” in its June 23 referendum on EU membership. Oslo has long relied on London’s free-market zeal to keep the EU’s interventionist instincts in check.

While in the EU the UK has some influence, outside it'll be a rule taker if it wants to trade with the EU. Trade with China or the US would also imply taking their rules.

Also, I read that EFTA, and especially Norway, weren't fancying letting the UK in. They are too large a country and a bully/uncooperative. Norway are kind of a leader of the EFTA and if UK joined they would lose that "leadership".

Not that UK considers EFTA membership...

McGiver

PeadarCo wrote: »

First Up wrote:

The EU will let them fight it out and then deal with whoever wins. The terms for Brexit will be settled before they leave and will not be revisited. Barnier has made this point and will re-make it as often as needed.

What happens if there is no winner in the internal UK debate before the Brexit deadline? It is crazy that these arguments are happening at this stage.

What's very concerning is that the reality of the situation has not hit home. Unless the argument for a soft brexit wins you have a hard/uncontrolled brexit as that is the default scenario.

I think the Tories just think they will keep kicking the can down the road until the next general election. Also, Labour won't do anything. No one wants to own Brexit and be punished by the electorate when the Brexit sh1te falls down on everyone's head. Which means the country is politically paralysed and heading towards a hard Brexit unless something extraordinary happens.

joeysoap

There it is . Question Time tonight. There will be a deal. Aldi (German ) need one.

You couldn’t make this up.

J Mysterio

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Meanwhile, Johnson seems to think the Border is a small folly:

https://www.buzzfeed.com/amphtml/alexspence/boris-johnson-trump-brexit-leaked-recording?utm_term=.yt8DDKzVlW&__twitter_impression=true

Fascinating article and quite expansive.The man is completely delusional though. I thought his comments on Russia massively ironic.

“Putin feels a deep sense of shame that he’s leader of a country that has been so greatly reduced in its global importance,” Johnson said.

“When I was a kid, Russia really mattered. It’s now got an economy about the size of Australia. Yeah, they’ve they’ve got a lot of nuclear weapons, but it’s real importance in the world is greatly [diminished].”

And then...

"You’ve got to face the fact there may now be a meltdown. OK? I don’t want anybody to panic during the meltdown. No panic. Pro bono publico, no bloody panic. It’s going to be all right in the end.”

Capt'n Midnight

joeysoap wrote: »

There it is . Question Time tonight. There will be a deal. Aldi (German ) need one.

You couldn’t make this up.

Wow. Aldi Süd operate here and in the UK. But Aldi Nord don't. So the half of Aldi that manages one fourteenth of the UK grocery market will be calling the shots ?

In the 12 weeks to 22 April 2018, Aldi commanded 7.3% of the UK grocery market, and Lidl was on 5.4%.


In Ireland it's close enough to 22% each for Tesco / Supervalue / Dunnes and 11% for Aldi / Lidl / Everyone Else. So expect the Germans to take more market share in the UK.

Peregrinus

briany wrote: »

I was of the understanding that the backstop would be implemented if the UK couldn't come up with a solution that satisfied both sides. This implies that an overall deal would still have been reached, however. If the UK walks out of talks and end up with no deal, then what onus is on them to stick to the backstop?

None.

It works like this: the backstop is the arrangement that will prevail if there is no EU/UK Free Trade deal that keeps the Irish border open, and no agreement on magical technology to keep the Irish border open.

But, crucially, it's the EU/UK Withdrawal Agreement which will say "This is the backstop. It will apply if there is no FTA/magical technology agreement".

So, if the UK leaves without even a Withdrawal Agreement, they are not committed to applying the backstop.

The thing is, leaving without a Withdrawal Agreement would be an absolute unqualified unmitigated disaster for the UK, so it is not something they are likely to choose to do, merely in order to avoid the backstop.

But if, for other reasons, the UK leaves with no Withdrawal Agreement - say, a political crisis in the UK leads to the collapse of the government and the Art. 50 time limit runs out before they get themselves together and get a new government - then, yes, there will be no backstop, and there will be a hard border.

There is nothing that can be done to avoid this possiblity. There never was. The UK is an independent sovereign state and we cannot actually force them to enter into an agreement to keep the border open. We can just arrange matters so that it is very much in their interests to enter into such an agreement, which is what we have done.

Peregrinus

McGiver wrote: »

I think the Tories just think they will keep kicking the can down the road until the next general election. Also, Labour won't do anything. No one wants to own Brexit and be punished by the electorate when the Brexit sh1te falls down on everyone's head. Which means the country is politically paralysed and heading towards a hard Brexit unless something extraordinary happens.

The Tories very much don't want to be still kicking the can down the road at the next election. They reckon the voters will crucify them if, at that time, six years after the referendum, the UK is still in the Customs Union, still paying EU contributions, still has no trade deals or no capacity to enter into them, still committed to substantial regulatory alignment with the EU, etc, etc. All that will have changed is that the UK no longer has a seat at the table around which the rules are made. The UK will have been through years of turmoil and absolutely nothing of any value* will have been achieved.

*[My bad. I'm forgetting the blue passports.]

prinzeugen

If I was May, I would walk.

You have France, that was fighting bloody wars in the late 40's and 50's, in a despite attempt to keep the French Empire going, dictating to Ireland and you all roll over.

But yet the British is the problem? Go read some books about the slave trade.. The Brits are the good guys in this.

On the back of a €20 or 50 note you have Gibraltar. But you have French acquisitions in Canada, the Caribbean and in many oceans.

Did you know money is being sent to the EU Colonies in Canada, The Indian Ocean and the Pacific Ocean ?

zapitastas

prinzeugen wrote: »

If I was May, I would walk.

You have France, that was fighting bloody wars in the late 40's and 50's, in a despite attempt to keep the French Empire going, dictating to Ireland and you all roll over.

But yet the British is the problem? Go read some books about the slave trade.. The Brits are the good guys in this.

On the back of a €20 or 50 note you have Gibraltar. But you have French acquisitions in Canada, the Caribbean and in many oceans.

Are you playing imperial bingo? Not sure what any of that has to do with the process of the UK leaving the EU

Peregrinus

prinzeugen wrote: »

If I was May, I would walk.

You have France, that was fighting bloody wars in the late 40's and 50's, in a despite attempt to keep the French Empire going, dictating to Ireland and you all roll over.

Sorry, what?

You think we're resisting a hard border because the French are telling us to?

Seth Brundle

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Meanwhile, Johnson seems to think the Border is a small folly:

https://www.buzzfeed.com/amphtml/alexspence/boris-johnson-trump-brexit-leaked-recording?utm_term=.yt8DDKzVlW&__twitter_impression=true

The Irish Times story onbthis says

Friends of Mr Johnson said: “This was a private dinner under Chatham House rules so it is sad and very disappointing that it has been covertly recorded and distributed to the media.”

Is BJ not in favour of speaking his mind in public?

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/boris-johnson-warns-of-brexit-meltdown-and-derides-border-folly-1.3523705

CelticRambler

McGiver wrote: »

I think the Tories just think they will keep kicking the can down the road until the next general election. Also, Labour won't do anything. No one wants to own Brexit and be punished by the electorate when the Brexit sh1te falls down on everyone's head. Which means the country is politically paralysed and heading towards a hard Brexit unless something extraordinary happens.

The situation is probably worse than it appears, because not only are the two main parties stuck in their parallel loops, but there is no one person and no other party coming forth as a potential new force in British politics.



The UK political scene has a dozen Trumps and Clintons, but no Bernie Sanders or Emmanuel Macron or Justin Trudeau or Jacinda Ardern (or Leo Varadkar ) - and the electorate simply doesn't care. As the saying goes, they've got the government they deserve.



Just as I can see the Republicans winning plenty of seats in the US mid-terms later this year, I can quite easily see the Tories being re-elected in England (and hence the UK) despite all they've done to damage Britain's standing in the world.

Christy42

Seth Brundle wrote: »

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Meanwhile, Johnson seems to think the Border is a small folly:

https://www.buzzfeed.com/amphtml/alexspence/boris-johnson-trump-brexit-leaked-recording?utm_term=.yt8DDKzVlW&__twitter_impression=true

The Irish Times story onbthis says

Friends of Mr Johnson said: “This was a private dinner under Chatham House rules so it is sad and very disappointing that it has been covertly recorded and distributed to the media.”

Is BJ not in favour of speaking his mind in public?

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/boris-johnson-warns-of-brexit-meltdown-and-derides-border-folly-1.3523705

It was for a conservative group so who knows if it was near the truth. I imagine he has told 10 different dinners 10 different things which is why there is annoyance at the recording.

Beechwoodspark

Christy42 wrote: »

It was for a conservative group so who knows if it was near the truth. I imagine he has told 10 different dinners 10 different things which is why there is annoyance at the recording.

The way these things work is BoJo probably gave the nod for it to be leaked

He wants to present himself as the true defender of brexit.

I think at some stage he will end up in 10 downing st.

It’ll be fun seeing the backtracking then. He’s disingenuous and flaky at the best of times.

McGiver

J Mysterio wrote: »

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Meanwhile, Johnson seems to think the Border is a small folly:

https://www.buzzfeed.com/amphtml/alexspence/boris-johnson-trump-brexit-leaked-recording?utm_term=.yt8DDKzVlW&__twitter_impression=true

Fascinating article and quite expansive.The man is completely delusional though. I thought his comments on Russia massively ironic.

“Putin feels a deep sense of shame that he’s leader of a country that has been so greatly reduced in its global importance,” Johnson said.

“When I was a kid, Russia really mattered. It’s now got an economy about the size of Australia. Yeah, they’ve they’ve got a lot of nuclear weapons, but it’s real importance in the world is greatly [diminished].”

And then...

"You’ve got to face the fact there may now be a meltdown. OK? I don’t want anybody to panic during the meltdown. No panic. Pro bono publico, no bloody panic. It’s going to be all right in the end.”

Clearly a personality disorder. Or just ignorant?

Wanderer78

CelticRambler wrote:

The UK political scene has a dozen Trumps and Clintons, but no Bernie Sanders or Emmanuel Macron or Justin Trudeau or Jacinda Ardern (or Leo Varadkar ) - and the electorate simply doesn't care. As the saying goes, they've got the government they deserve.

I don't particularly like sayings such as 'theyve got the government they deserve', why should people be treated like this, these are normal human beings, who are just trying to get by, and it's also important to realise, if Brexit goes bad, it ll probably go bad for all of us to.

Nody

Wanderer78 wrote: »

I don't particularly like sayings such as 'theyve got the government they deserve', why should people be treated like this, these are normal human beings, who are just trying to get by, and it's also important to realise, if Brexit goes bad, it ll probably go bad for all of us to.

Because as voters they have a responsibility and duty on who they vote in and be informed in their decision; hence they get the government they deserve because they vote for who they want to rule on their behalf (as a group).

Mezcita

Wanderer78 wrote: »

I don't particularly like sayings such as 'theyve got the government they deserve', why should people be treated like this

Because they have chosen to take this path as well as to democratically elect the very people who will make them worse off. They also had the chance to change their electoral system and chose not too. Finally people happily believe the Rule Britannia nonsense they are spoon fed by their own press on a daily basis. But the strangest thing to me is that there are a huge number of remain voters who are choosing to sit back and let this happen.

I have to admit to having very little sympathy for them. They're about to get quite a loud wake up call.

Peregrinus

Nody wrote: »

Because as voters they have a responsibility and duty on who they vote in and be informed in their decision; hence they get the government they deserve because they vote for who they want to rule on their behalf (as a group).

But at the last general election, around three out of five voters voted for someone other than the Tories. The fact that they ended up with a Tory government anyway is not so much because they deserve one, as because a crapulous electoral system and an immature political culture delivered one.

Chips Lovell

That's true. But they had a chance to change that system as recently as 2011 and opted not to.

J Mysterio

Alistair Campbell savaged the government on Pat Kenny this morning, saying UK was becoming a laughing stock. Also said the recent comments mads him feel ashamed to be British.

Wanderer78

Nody wrote: »

Because as voters they have a responsibility and duty on who they vote in and be informed in their decision; hence they get the government they deserve because they vote for who they want to rule on their behalf (as a group).

Mezcita wrote: »

Because they have chosen to take this path as well as to democratically elect the very people who will make them worse off. They also had the chance to change their electoral system and chose not too. Finally people happily believe the Rule Britannia nonsense they are spoon fed by their own press on a daily basis. But the strangest thing to me is that there are a huge number of remain voters who are choosing to sit back and let this happen.

I have to admit to having very little sympathy for them. They're about to get quite a loud wake up call.

democracy is now a commodity, that must be sold to us!

these are human beings whos lives and livelihoods are potentially under threat, a lack of empathy may reflect badly on those that advocate for such bad outcomes

Snickers Man

Sam Russell wrote: »

That would be unnecessary. If the UK leaves the SM, then cars exported from the UK to the EU will not be imported into the EU tariff free if their content is not more than 55% UK manufacture - which currently they are not. However, EU cars will be over 55% manufactured in the EU so will be imported tariff free.

So Brexiteers can continue to buy their German luxury cars tariff free, but the EU will not be able to buy their UK produced Hondas, Toyotas, Opel Astras, or Opel/Renault/Nissan vans tariff free. The EU van purchasers will have to buy Fiat or Mercedes or VW or Peugeot vans instead. 10% extra is a lot on a van.

I'm not sure that I don't understand what you're trying to deny here.
Or not.

Snickers Man

KingNerolives wrote: »

Imagine if that was Thatcher instead of may, she would have whipped the naysayers in her party into line with the authority of a leader! All the strong politicians are just a part of history now.

I think you're forgetting what got Thatcher shafted out of the job of Prime Minister.
By her OWN party.
#how old are you anyway? #read a history book

Mezcita

Wanderer78 wrote: »

democracy is now a commodity, that must be sold to us!

these are human beings whos lives and livelihoods are potentially under threat, a lack of empathy may reflect badly on those that advocate for such bad outcomes

Everyone has an obligation to inform themselves about what they are voting for before they cast their vote. The fact that millions chose to believe the lies is their problem. Equally the fact that they appear happy to let their own government drive them off the cliff rather than take to the streets on mass is also their problem.

They'll learn a lesson in the harshest possible way but I think it's the only way that the UK will change for the better.

Wanderer78

Mezcita wrote: »

Everyone has an obligation to inform themselves about what they are voting for before they cast their vote. The fact that millions chose to believe the lies is their problem. Equally the fact that they appear happy to let their own government drive them off the cliff rather than take to the streets on mass is also their problem.

They'll learn a lesson in the harshest possible way but I think it's the only way that the UK will change for the better.

all voters are manipulated to some degree, including you and me, theres no such thing as absolutes in this game, we simply have no way of predicting the future accurately, we make decisions on the best information available, and hope for the best. its important to realise, a part of the brexit vote was actually more to do about protesting, letting the established parties know, we re pissed! humans tend to be a little irrational when theyre angry.

this could cause great harm to the lives and livelihoods of many, both within the borders of the uk, and beyond

J Mysterio

Wanderer78 wrote: »

its important to realise, a part of the brexit vote was actually more to do about protesting, letting the established parties know, we re pissed! humans tend to be a little irrational when theyre angry.

Using the Brexit referendum as a 'protest vote' is actually the dumbest thing anyone could have done. Appallingly stupid.

Wanderer78

J Mysterio wrote: »

Using the Brexit referendum as a 'protest vote' is actually the dumbest thing anyone could have done. Appallingly stupid.

what if its seen as the only tool, or one of few tools to truly express your anger? its important to remember, the trump vote has similar thinking behind it, were these people dumb or just angry and fed up?

listermint

Wanderer78 wrote: »

what if its seen as the only tool, or one of few tools to truly express your anger? its important to remember, the trump vote has similar thinking behind it, were these people dumb or just angry and fed up?

Well they voted to become angrier and that's on them Tbh. The exit is a hard lesson that needed , needs to be learned. And frankly I'm over it. They will soon realise how good they had it at the main table of one the biggest markets in the world . And not as a bit part player they were a cornerstone.

This anti EU nonsense will be swallowed soon enough and the reality of having such a stupid position will dawn. The UK was the EU not a them and us

Mezcita

Wanderer78 wrote: »

this could cause great harm to the lives and livelihoods of many, both within the borders of the uk, and beyond

But they've voted for it. Even in places like Sunderland where Nissan (the largest employer) publicly stated that they would have to consider keeping the plant open if Brexit went ahead. So is that a protest vote or just total stupidity?

As well as the average Brexit voter probably didn't give a second's thought to the fact that the a hard border in the North essentially tears up the Good Friday Agreement. That hurts Ireland but f.uck it, rule Britannia.

So I'd agree that this will cause great harm to many people. Particularly those who made that protest vote in the first place. But my concern is more for Ireland rather than the UK. The UK is broken and it's very much their own fault. Living here is a daily reminder of that fact.

Zubeneschamali

I think a lot of the protest voters believed the mainstream view that Brexit could not pass, so they thought it was a safe protest. Cameron, the Government and the Westminster classes in general were against Brexit, so f... them.

Also the Irish attitude of "That was a stupid result, let's have another go" is alien to them. They are very much more by the rules than we are, so they see this as an irrevocable decision, will of the people, move on, join the queue to Brexit.

sink

Wanderer78 wrote: »

what if its seen as the only tool, or one of few tools to truly express your anger? its important to remember, the trump vote has similar thinking behind it, were these people dumb or just angry and fed up?

They just had a general election in 2015 and were due another one in 2020 anyway, that's the perfect opportunity to give the government a kicking. Their votes may not matter in safe seat constituencies, but they had the opportunity to fix it as recently as 2011 and chose by 68% to reject it. As in the Brexit referendum the AV referendum was characterised by misinformation and bad temperament. It seems to me that the political culture in the UK is to blame and the political culture can only be blamed collectively on the British voters.

FreudianSlippers

The movement in the last 24 hours has me more sceptical than ever that a true "Brexit" will even happen. Kicking the can down the road until 2021, right before a GE has a strong whiff of a second referendum by any other name.

Frank Bullitt

https://twitter.com/oconnellhugh/status/1004819434551349249

Where did they find Boris?

Zubeneschamali

sink wrote: »

They just had a general election in 2015 and were due another one in 2020 anyway, that's the perfect opportunity to give the government a kicking.

Ah, but Brexit was a chance to give everyone in Westminster a kicking, and most of London too, with no actual downside as in electing the other lot, because we all knew it wouldn't pass, right?

joeysoap

It was interesting to note the number of contributors on QT who said they voted remain but now want the UK government to ‘get on’ with Brexit. I thought a good question was if there was a ‘people’s ‘ referendum and it voted no to the negotiated deal - what then? what’s the alternative then while ‘respecting’ the first referendum.

Why doesn’t somebody ask Fox (etc) if it’s taking until 2021 to negotiate a deal with the EU, why does he think a deal with US, Canada,India etc can be negotiated practically overnight?

I would also be very concerned that Davis, who a few hours ago was threatening to resign, was happy with the statement.

Thomas_IV

Some new development:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jun/08/best-for-britain-recruits-mps-to-back-second-brexit-referendum

Best for Britain recruits MPs to back second Brexit referendum

Around 40 MPs appear willing to sign up to remain campaign group’s proposed amendment


“We believe the Brexit process is distracting from the many reasons people voted to leave: a kick back against Westminster to wake up to the reality of life in modern Britain – an industrial wasteland in parts of our country and the loss of good jobs, a weakening health service, unaffordable housing, and rising student debt,” the manifesto says.

...

The manifesto expresses the hope that any second referendum campaign would be subject to “stringent policing” and conducted in a different tone to the last, saying both sides should respect voters rather than adopt messages ranging from Project Fear on one side to “false claims” that the NHS would be able to spend £350m a week extra once the UK had left.

Eloise Todd, the chief executive of Best for Britain, said: “For too long we’ve been asked to swallow the lie that the votes of 17 million people with their individual histories, experiences and ideas gave May a clear mandate to deliver whatever Brexit she can fashion.”

I hope that they can persuade even more than the 40 MPs and I wish them good luck in all their efforts.

Leroy42

This idea of a protest vote doesn't stack up.

If such a protest, then why did they vote in record numbers for the Tories, and basically abandon UKIP?

And why do the voters continue to largely back Brexit, even now. If a vote was held today, Remain might win but not by much.

One can only conclude that whilst a part of it would have been a protest, there is no apparent appetite for a new party to represent that, and one can only conclude that this is indeed what the people want. I mean, they had 2 years prior to the vote, and if somehow they didn't pay attention during that it is inescapable to have heard about Brexit since as it really is the only thing the government is focused on.

The UK do not want to be in the EU anymore. Everyone needs to accept that. What the UK needs to decide now is how much of the benefits of the EU they are prepared to give up to get away from the negatives (and there are plenty of negatives with the EU).

It appears that the UK hasn't worked this out.

Larbre34

Thomas_IV wrote: »

Some new development:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jun/08/best-for-britain-recruits-mps-to-back-second-brexit-referendum

I hope that they can persuade even more than the 40 MPs and I wish them good luck in all their efforts.

40 is an excellent start. Momentum will build as the intractability of the current situation is compounded.

Fair play to Boris for the boost his moronic remarks will have given those efforts. "so few firms actually use the border regularly" I mean Jesus wept, its clear how little he and Davis and Fox actually know or care about the political and economic situation in Ireland / Northern Ireland. If I were a unionist, I'd be fairly miffed about that fact, how little regard HM government has for their needs.

briany

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Also the Irish attitude of "That was a stupid result, let's have another go" is alien to them. They are very much more by the rules than we are, so they see this as an irrevocable decision, will of the people, move on, join the queue to Brexit.

This is spiel by people like Farage, and massively hypocritical. There's no way the whole Brexit movement wouldn't have been crying bloody murder for a second referendum in the event of a 52-48 loss.

Here's what Farage himself told the Mirror in May 2016

Farage told the Mirror: “In a 52-48 referendum this would be unfinished business by a long way. If the remain campaign win two-thirds to one-third that ends it.”

mickoneill31

joeysoap wrote: »

It was interesting to note the number of contributors on QT who said they voted remain but now want the UK government to ‘get on’ with Brexit.

I've seen this a few times in different media. Is it just a British thing?

"We know this is going to hurt us more than it benefits us and we don't have to do it but we made a decision and can never go back on it so lets get it over with."

It seems alien to me.

EdgeCase

It's purely spin.

Think of it another way: would it be reasonable to have a single general election and say Right, that's it, we're never considering a change of government again, you're having this one for the rest of your days. The people have spoken!

Why is this, rather badly conducted referendum, suddenly more important than any other vote that has ever taken place in the UK?

Seth Brundle

I don't believe that the average person in the UK is aware of the benefits they have from being a member of the EU.
I believe that they have this fanciful notion that they are being oppressed by anonymous EU bureaucrats and that power is being removed from Westminster.
Most will not have thought through the extent of the damage caused by leaving the EU because they don't know what they're getting from it. They've been told a load of crap portrayed as fact which has gone unchallenged. Much of their media is pro-Brexit for whatever reasons.
Their PM surely wouldn't lead them all off the edge of a cliff. Surely she wants what's best for Britain? Sure even Labour seem to be in favour of Brexit.
What are they supposed to think? Who will give them the facts about how being a member of the EU is better than being a bystander looking in wondering what went wrong?

ancapailldorcha

Baron de Charlus wrote: »

That's true. But they had a chance to change that system as recently as 2011 and opted not to.

Indeed. However, as David Laws explains in his chronicle of the Coalition it was a tremendous fudge. Only the Liberal Democrats and the Pirate Party supported it and it was presented such that the general public were told that the person with the second highest amount of votes would win. Laws himself recounts an anecdote where one of his voters felt that he was working hard enough. She'd heard that a Yes vote might make MP's work harder so she voted no.

Leroy42 wrote: »

This idea of a protest vote doesn't stack up.

If such a protest, then why did they vote in record numbers for the Tories, and basically abandon UKIP?

And why do the voters continue to largely back Brexit, even now. If a vote was held today, Remain might win but not by much.

One can only conclude that whilst a part of it would have been a protest, there is no apparent appetite for a new party to represent that, and one can only conclude that this is indeed what the people want. I mean, they had 2 years prior to the vote, and if somehow they didn't pay attention during that it is inescapable to have heard about Brexit since as it really is the only thing the government is focused on.

The UK do not want to be in the EU anymore. Everyone needs to accept that. What the UK needs to decide now is how much of the benefits of the EU they are prepared to give up to get away from the negatives (and there are plenty of negatives with the EU).

It appears that the UK hasn't worked this out.

I believe that the idea of a protest vote does hold up.

The vote to Leave is one of the first real choices the British public has been able to make for years. For much of the past two decades, there was little or no difference between the two main parties. Margaret Thatcher even describes Tony Blair & New Labour as her biggest achievement.

Look at how both of these parties have treated the electorate. Top down reforms of the NHS after explicit promises not to, a botched attempt cut income tax credits despite the same only stopped by the unelected House of Lords, the Iraq War, Atos, tuition fees for the Lib Dems, the expenses scandal, the top 1% making a killing while the poorest get disability and welfare cuts and so on and so on.

It's not hard to see why the elites are held in such contempt. British democracy has a lot of the characteristics of being a closed shop which is rigged against the electorate. A third of voters who did not vote for either Labour or the Conservatives last election effectively have no representation, as did the 4-odd million UKIP voters in 2015.

However, after the referendum British politics has reverted to its previous state of business as usual. Northern working class types, BME voters and Cosmopolitans have gone back to voting Labour while parochial rural Southern English voters, social conservatives, big business types are now voting for the Conservatives once again. These voters are convinced that Brexit will proceed while the remnants of the pitiful and clinical Remain campaign are still sticking to the failed economic doom and gloom narrative. Both parties have committed to Brexit so people have become comfortable reverting to their previous voting habits resulting in the consignment of UKIP to the history books.

Until someone comes up with a positive view of the EU that resonates with the working classes, Brexit will not be reversed. This is why the Lib Dems did so badly last year. They were seen as undemocratic and elitist. The British political system needs to adopt meaningful democratic reforms such as an elected upper chamber and a PR voting system. People feel abandoned and out of touch with Politics so they struck back when the opportunity to do so presented itself.

Thomas_IV

Larbre34 wrote: »

40 is an excellent start. Momentum will build as the intractability of the current situation is compounded.

Fair play to Boris for the boost his moronic remarks will have given those efforts. "so few firms actually use the border regularly" I mean Jesus wept, its clear how little he and Davis and Fox actually know or care about the political and economic situation in Ireland / Northern Ireland. If I were a unionist, I'd be fairly miffed about that fact, how little regard HM government has for their needs.

This might put more presure on May to come up with something one can call a deal or she'll continue with her usual acting which brings no results. All just hot air and nothing done. But time is really running out because a deal must be there by the end of October at the latest.

The Tories don't care much about the Irish problems and are happy to leave all that to the DUP which is also quite happy to have the PM at her 'balls' and seek for a hard Brexit.

McGiver

Peregrinus wrote: »

McGiver wrote: »

I think the Tories just think they will keep kicking the can down the road until the next general election. Also, Labour won't do anything. No one wants to own Brexit and be punished by the electorate when the Brexit sh1te falls down on everyone's head. Which means the country is politically paralysed and heading towards a hard Brexit unless something extraordinary happens.

The Tories very much don't want to be still kicking the can down the road at the next election. They reckon the voters will crucify them if, at that time, six years after the referendum, the UK is still in the Customs Union, still paying EU contributions, still has no trade deals or no capacity to enter into them, still committed to substantial regulatory alignment with the EU, etc, etc. All that will have changed is that the UK no longer has a seat at the table around which the rules are made. The UK will have been through years of turmoil and absolutely nothing of any value* will have been achieved.

*[My bad. I'm forgetting the blue passports.]

Now which Tories? There are at least three types of them.

EdgeCase

To me it looks like they're not actually going to deliberately decide to leave the EU, rather they'll just continue fighting amongst themselves, end up with no policies on the issue and suddenly find themselves in a huge panic after March 2019 without any agreement reached with anyone.

The politicians over there aren't taking this nearly seriously enough. It's not a game, and could end up destroying large chunks of the UK economy and causing international problems.

Leroy42

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I believe that the idea of a protest vote does hold up.

The vote to Leave is one of the first real choices the British public has been able to make for years. For much of the past two decades, there was little or no difference between the two main parties. Margaret Thatcher even describes Tony Blair & New Labour as her biggest achievement......

I agree with almost everything you say, but that does not deal with the fact that since the vote very few (statistically) have changed their mind.

Why would the voters continue to push for Brexit simply as a protest? As you say, the traditional voting patterns were largely restored in 2017 election (UKIP gone etc) and the local elections showed little signs of a protest.

So to follow the protest line, one must feel that voters protested once and left it at that, happy that all the issues were no resolved? Even the grubby coalition deal should have put paid to that.

As was pointed out from QT last night, many remainers seem to be of the view that 'lets get on with it'. There seems to be this thinking that a particular day will arrive, a VE day for example. In this case of a hard Brexit this is true, but anything else will mean that there isn't a day as such when the world changes. It will be, like the last two years, a lot of seemingly nothing at all happening until some issue crops up and then it all excitement for a few days.

The biggest mistake was letting this moniker of "Project Fear" take hold. Whilst it may have been somewhat true in the campaign, it is now used to decry anything that doesn't support the Brexit case (much like Fake News in Trumpland, but the UK deem their version to be far superior). So anybody that argues from remain is claimed to be overrun by Project Fear. They should fight back and say it should be called what it is, "Facts".

Snickers Man

prinzeugen wrote: »

If I was May, I would walk.

You have France, that was fighting bloody wars in the late 40's and 50's, in a despite attempt to keep the French Empire going, dictating to Ireland and you all roll over.

And Britain wasn't? Check out an ITV documentary series from the 1980s called End of Empire. It dealt with all the wars the British fought since the end of the Second World to try and keep THEIR Empire together. There were quite a few episodes!

And some of them went on into the 60s and 70s. India, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Bangla Desh, Burma, Palestine, Malaya, Aden, Cyprus, Suez, Kenya, Rhodesia. Not to mention Norn Iron.

prinzeugen wrote: »

But yet the British is the problem? Go read some books about the slave trade.. The Brits are the good guys in this.

Read some books about the history of the Middle East. About a hundred years ago the British were at war with the Ottoman Empire. Their main enemy in the First World War, incidentally. Not the Germans.

In an attempt to gain support the British made three mutually contradictory promises to potential allies. They promised the Arabs that if they rebelled against the Ottomans they would gain independence (Hussein MacMahon correspondence). They promised the Zionists they could have Palestine (Balfour Declaration). But before either of those they had already promised the French that the two of them would parcel out Arabia between themselves (Sykes Picot Agreement). Guess which one they prioritised when the war was over?

Making inherently contradictory promises to several parties while trying to feather their own nests? Just as they're doing now? Yeah. The Brits are the good guys all right. :rolleyes:

Look at the bloody awful mess the Middle East has been since WWI. British fingerprints all over it. Perfidious Albion indeed.

Leroy42

joeysoap wrote: »

Why doesn’t somebody ask Fox (etc) if it’s taking until 2021 to negotiate a deal with the EU, why does he think a deal with US, Canada,India etc can be negotiated practically overnight?

I think deals with the US etc will be done pretty quickly. They really have no choice but to deliver. Liam FOX has basically been given 4 years to get deals done.

The problem is that those countries know this. They know that the UK need a deal. It is not about increasing trade, it is about enabling it at all, and about staying in power. That is quite a leverage to hold over a negotiation.

So I think the UK will strike deals quickly, but on really poor terms. One thing we know about Trump is that he is a bully and sees negotiations as zero-sum games. So he will want everything, and the UK will have little option but to give in.

Fox, Boris and May can then claim credit for delivering trade deals, whilst trying to keep the details out of the public eye. Based on the whole Brexit mess, it seems that the vast majority of the public don't bother with details so once they see a headline of "May delivers US deal despite EU trying to derail" they will be happy.

They will only see the negative effects a couple of years later