Brexit discussion thread III

EdgeCase

I think you also have to put on British glasses to read this and take off your Irish ones for a moment.

The view of the EU in England in particular is very odd and distorted. They have been fed a constant diet of "Europe is an evil monster" by the tabloids for decades and many people just accept that as fact.

Most people I have talked to cannot give you a rational argument for leaving, but they want to leave because they just don't like Europe. They don't really understand what it is, but they simply don't like it and that is largely down to decades of absorbing this notion that Europe does nothing except impose restrictions on them.

It has also been used as a whipping boy by local councils and petty local bureaucrats of all sorts who will tell you that they can't to X, Y or Z because of "European directives", which when you look into it, are usually locally invented or interpreted approaches to regulation of things like health and safety law that have no basis in EU directives or that are very draconian interpretations of EU rules, enforced with overzealousness by petty bureaucracy in England.

They've really never stopped to consider the positives of EU membership, everything's about the negatives. That's all they ever hear and that's all they've absorbed.

The positives are there, all the time, in the background to use an analogy they're like the foundations of your house or your electrical wiring and plumbing, the brakes and tyres on your car. They don't notice them because they just quietly perform a fundamental function.

The shock is not 'project fear', it's more like having taken the concept of rubber tyres for granted for decades, you're suddenly left driving on rims, having irrationally decided that you want nothing to do with tyres anymore due to decades of tabloid criticism of the tyre sector.

I really don't think they'll understand what they've done until after Brexit has actually happened. How that will pan out : nobody knows.

It's an old and common human trait : you don't know what it's got 'till it's gone to quite Joni Mitchell and plenty of others.

Zubeneschamali

Leroy42 wrote: »

one can only conclude that this is indeed what the people want.

Hang on, a minute ago you said Remain could win a repeat referendum!

Leroy42

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Hang on, a minute ago you said Remain could win a repeat referendum!

Could, but only just. What I meant was that in any given vote it could go either way, but regardless the result will no be empathic either way.

But despite the vote, I would have expected that if this was simply a protest vote then many more would see the folly and be demanding a stop.

Snickers Man

EdgeCase wrote: »

It's an old and common human trait : you don't know what it's got 'till it's gone to quite Joni Mitchell and plenty of others.

"They paved Paradise; built up a ........ lot."

A lot of resentment, racism, militarism, jingoism, xenophobia, fantasy, self-delusion, not to mention a lot of self harm.

Dangerous times for the world.

LuckyLloyd

Brilliant post EdgeCase, and it's borne out when you watch audience interactions on Question Time; listen to call in shows on LBC; read the pro Brexit press. They think they've voted for 'freedom'; for a national renewal and liberation of their economy and society. Discourse on the EU has been rotted out by two decades of constant anti EU bile in their newspapers. This was taken up by the politicians and it has created a broad national perception - one that sees the details or facts as negative scare mongering or obfuscation.

That pushes up against the unfolding reality of the Brexit "negotiations" and is creating quite a political and societal mess. Simply put, large swathes of the media and politicians have not been honest with the electorate on the topic for years and they have managed to poison the idea of expert opinion. It makes it impossible therefore to have a proper conversation on the reality of the available options. And so we have ever continuing fudge.

judeboy101

This morning, DD is happy, coveney and mcentee call this "significant progress" and can proceed to Oct deal. Lads, we are screwed.

Kermit.de.frog

Varadkar says UK's brexit border backstop plan falls short. He also says the time limit will be unacceptable to the EU. Barnier to speak shortly.


Also the EU has a bigger problem. They were absolutely clear that this should apply to NI only. They don't want any backstop in which the whole UK is in the CU pre empting talks on future relationship.

Peregrinus

judeboy101 wrote: »

This morning, DD is happy, coveney and mcentee call this "significant progress" and can proceed to Oct deal. Lads, we are screwed.

Sorry, you take David Davis's political judgments seriously?

Leroy42

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Varadkar says UK's brexit plan falls short. He also says the time limit will be unacceptable to the EU. Barnier to speak shortly.

But what is the other option. A hard Brexit?

UK seem to at least have some people wanting this. Ireland certainly do not, so isn't this option better than the alternative hard brexit in March?

judeboy101

Peregrinus wrote: »

judeboy101 wrote: »

This morning, DD is happy, coveney and mcentee call this "significant progress" and can proceed to Oct deal. Lads, we are screwed.

Sorry, you take David Davis's political judgments seriously?

No but if he is happy and coveney&co thing what may released constitutes "significant progress" I would not be confident that FG will stand up to EU. Remember when edna came back with our "special case" status for EU re the banks. ?

Zubeneschamali

Leroy42 wrote: »

isn't this option better than the alternative hard brexit in March?

Anything is better than a Hard Brexit, which means the UK cannot really go for a Hard Brexit.

The EU will not accept a watered down backstop, and the UK can't bluff them.

J Mysterio

May has given her full support and backing to Johnson after latest comments. How can this man be backed? He is the Foreign Secretary - he represents the UK around the world. It has been gaffe after gaffe, insulting people around the world and not understanding diplomacy in the least. He is a buffoon of the highest order. He is also constantly undermining her, suggesting yesterday that Trump would do better even. She should fire him, but she doesnt have the guts.

Kermit.de.frog

You can watch Barnier's Press conference here

https://ec.europa.eu/avservices/ebs/live.cfm?page=1

Apparently he may discuss other items mostly though...

Kermit.de.frog

Barnier says backstop cannot extend to whole UK

Leroy42

I see TM has been 'snubbed' by Trump at the upcoming G7 (I use snubbed as it is in the headlines but it is pretty said that he is simply not engaging with anybody).

The problem for TM, and the UK as a whole, is that much of the Brexit narrative is based on setting up new trade deals with the rest of the world, with the lynchpin of that being the 'special relationship' with the US. It bodes badly that Trump is so seemingly unconcerned about the UK, stating that he needs to concentrate on NK. And whilst this may be true (its not he simply cannot face the others) it also points to the US being willing to put UK at the back of the queue (I wonder who might have alluded to that very possibility?)

It would certainly have given the UK a major lift in negotiation with the EU if TM could show that the UK would be enjoying significant trade deals with the US, maybe even having the ability to ward off the upcoming tariffs.

Now, as Macron says no leader lasts forever, and certainly nobody really imagined Trump winning back in June 16, but there is the strong possibility that Trump could win in 2020. So the UK (and everyone else) could be looking at another 6 years. And who knows what state the US will be in then in terms of the next leader

Leroy42

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Barnier says backstop cannot extend to whole UK

Why would that be? Surely the backstop is effectively staying in the EU in all but name? Doesn't it make sense from an EU POV for the whole UK to stay in rather than just NI?

farmchoice

Leroy42 wrote: »

Why would that be? Surely the backstop is effectively staying in the EU in all but name? Doesn't it make sense from an EU POV for the whole UK to stay in rather than just NI?

its can kicking and it looks like the eu is playing hardball now... good on them.

Anthracite

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Barnier says backstop cannot extend to whole UK

ahahahahahahhaahahah

ahahahahahahhahahahah

hahhahahahahahhahahah

Sorry. Couldn't help myself. So all this drama over a proposal that they surely knew was already going to be rejected by the EU on not one, but two entirely different grounds. I wonder have we reached peak Brexit absurdity yet? The weird thing is, I feel we have not.

Part of me hungers for a crash-out Brexit, just so that the Brexit bigots reap what they have sown.

Meanwhile, in Brexit Bongoland, Irish chapter, Peter Robinson says that a 50%+1 (i.e. a narrow majority) in a border poll would be very bad, would be no basis for reunification, and to be avoided at all costs.

I wonder how he would feel about 48/52? Presumably that would be great?

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-44406029

Kermit.de.frog

Barnier has effective rejected the Irish backstop proposal.


In effect they are demanding the customs border be in the Irish sea.

Clare in Exile

How much longer can this folly go on for? Great that Barnier has come out immediately and shot down the "Backstop with a date...for the whole of the UK" idea immediately. Between Fox's words yesterday and Boris' leaked quips at that meeting "behind closed doors", we surely must be reaching the end-game of Brexit Buffoonery now?

It's looking more and more like the UK will be crashing out of the EU with a particularly hard Brexit - whilst some may laugh at the Kamikaze nature of this, for us over here in Ireland it will most certainly be a case of "When Britain sneezes Ireland catches a cold".

Interesting times indeed...

pixelburp

Is there any argument to be made though that all this hardball from the EU - and thoroughly justifiable hardball I should add - ultimately just plays into the Brexiteers' narrative of the EU as an unwieldy, unfriendly (nay, evil) institution? Not that I think Barnier & co. should change tune or even throw folks to the wolves; doing so with Ireland would very much be the thin end of the wedge in the eyes of the other small countries in the union, but beyond the more politically educated in the UK realising Brexit is a no-go, I'm presuming this is just solidifying stances among the Little Englanders, not softening it.

Zubeneschamali

pixelburp wrote: »

Iplays into the Brexiteers' narrative of the EU as an unwieldy, unfriendly (nay, evil) institution?

The UK is leaving - no-one on the EU side of the table has to care what they think of the EU anymore.

Water John

It hardly qualifies as unwieldy, when the EU come back with an answer in less than 24 hours. BTW the UK have spent months cobbling together this non proposal.

ancapailldorcha

Leroy42 wrote: »

I agree with almost everything you say, but that does not deal with the fact that since the vote very few (statistically) have changed their mind.

Why would the voters continue to push for Brexit simply as a protest? As you say, the traditional voting patterns were largely restored in 2017 election (UKIP gone etc) and the local elections showed little signs of a protest.

So to follow the protest line, one must feel that voters protested once and left it at that, happy that all the issues were no resolved? Even the grubby coalition deal should have put paid to that.

But most of them voted for parties which committed themselves to Brexit albeit very different versions of it. They haven't changed their minds and both parties reckon they can have their cake and eat it by committing to Brexit while knowing that many Remain voters have accepted the result and wish for an end to the uncertainty the plebiscite created.

Leroy42 wrote: »

The biggest mistake was letting this moniker of "Project Fear" take hold. Whilst it may have been somewhat true in the campaign, it is now used to decry anything that doesn't support the Brexit case (much like Fake News in Trumpland, but the UK deem their version to be far superior). So anybody that argues from remain is claimed to be overrun by Project Fear. They should fight back and say it should be called what it is, "Facts".

But it did. I follow the Conservative party on Facebook where they shamelessly claim credit for anything positive the EU does such as abolishing roaming charges while blaming it for any problems. Cynicism about the EU is now so entrenched that trying to create a positive vision for it will take a lot of time and would be the political equivalent of getting people to love going to the Dentist.

J Mysterio

Starting to wonder do we actually want the CTA..

ancapailldorcha

J Mysterio wrote: »

Starting to wonder do we actually want the CTA..

I sodding well do!! I live in the UK and it lets me vote here, a right shamefully denied to millions of tax paying EU migrants.

J Mysterio

pixelburp wrote: »

Is there any argument to be made though that all this hardball from the EU - and thoroughly justifiable hardball I should add - ultimately just plays into the Brexiteers' narrative of the EU as an unwieldy, unfriendly (nay, evil) institution? Not that I think Barnier & co. should change tune or even throw folks to the wolves; doing so with Ireland would very much be the thin end of the wedge in the eyes of the other small countries in the union, but beyond the more politically educated in the UK realising Brexit is a no-go, I'm presuming this is just solidifying stances among the Little Englanders, not softening it.

Who cares at this point? They already hate the EU.

J Mysterio

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I sodding well do!! I live in the UK and it lets me vote here, a right shamefully denied to millions of tax paying EU migrants.

Fait enough

Im just thinking that this is all going to go very badly, and we might have a massive influx of people from the UK.

Could be a boon to the economy though, I guess.

ilovesmybrick

pixelburp wrote:

Is there any argument to be made though that all this hardball from the EU - and thoroughly justifiable hardball I should add - ultimately just plays into the Brexiteers' narrative of the EU as an unwieldy, unfriendly (nay, evil) institution? Not that I think Barnier & co. should change tune or even throw folks to the wolves; doing so with Ireland would very much be the thin end of the wedge in the eyes of the other small countries in the union, but beyond the more politically educated in the UK realising Brexit is a no-go, I'm presuming this is just solidifying stances among the Little Englanders, not softening it.

I think there's probably a realisation that the Brexit train has become unstoppable. There's less than a year to go, and if there's this much fighting in the UK over something that they want, could you imagine what would happen if they tried to stop it. At this stage we're looking at the bones of four years of Brexit nonsense and there's still no plan beyond EU bad. Pandering to little Englanders is the tories problem, not the EUs.

Anthracite

pixelburp wrote: »

Is there any argument to be made though that all this hardball from the EU - and thoroughly justifiable hardball I should add - ultimately just plays into the Brexiteers' narrative of the EU as an unwieldy, unfriendly (nay, evil) institution? Not that I think Barnier & co. should change tune or even throw folks to the wolves; doing so with Ireland would very much be the thin end of the wedge in the eyes of the other small countries in the union, but beyond the more politically educated in the UK realising Brexit is a no-go, I'm presuming this is just solidifying stances among the Little Englanders, not softening it.

Why should anyone outside the UK care now? North Koreans think the whole world is evil and out to get them...they are deluded fools, but let them think it if they like.

pixelburp

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

The UK is leaving - no-one on the EU side of the table has to care what they think of the EU anymore.

Water John wrote: »

It hardly qualifies as unwieldy, when the EU come back with an answer in less than 24 hours. BTW the UK have spent months cobbling together this non proposal.

I wasn't implying the EU were those things, merely that their constant rejection of the UK's proposals - however demonstrably unworkable they are - plays into that pre-existing narrative among the British (for want of a better catch-all demographic) that the EU aren't open to reason, fairness, etc. etc.

J Mysterio wrote: »

Who cares at this point? They already hate the EU.

Presumably the 48%+ folks who don't want Brexit care; it can't be particularly motivating to have these basketcase proposals tabled with a straight face, only to have the EU respond with a weary 'uh, no'.

Not sure I have a point as such, but it seems like there's a chance to rewrite the narrative a little, were some to take the chance. To point out all things to be lost, mundanities etc., yet everything's happening in the political upper atmosphere (a lack of oxygen to the brain feeling an apt comparison for the cabinets ideas)

kunst nugget

pixelburp wrote: »

Not sure I have a point as such, but it seems like there's a chance to rewrite the narrative a little, were some to take the chance. To point out all things to be lost, mundanities etc., yet everything's happening in the political upper atmosphere (a lack of oxygen to the brain feeling an apt comparison for the cabinets ideas)

Didn't the EU have a webpage to counter the bogus claims made by the UK press about the EU and its directives? I'd imagine they've resigned themselves to the fact that no matter what way they try to play this, they are going to be portrayed as the bad guy and are going to be solely concentrating on getting the best deal for their member states. As they should be doing.

ancapailldorcha

kunst nugget wrote: »

Didn't the EU have a webpage to counter the bogus claims made by the UK press about the EU and its directives? I'd imagine they've resigned themselves to the fact that no matter what way they try to play this, they are going to be portrayed as the bad guy and are going to be solely concentrating on getting the best deal for their member states. As they should be doing.

They do:

https://blogs.ec.europa.eu/ECintheUK/euromyths-a-z-index/

I recently read Nick Clegg's Politics: Between the Extremes. He reported getting plenty of complaints in his constituency of Sheffield Hallam about London telling them what to do. British Institutions have been constantly hollowed out over the past few decades to the point where people feel that they don't have any control of their country any more while wages have barely risen whereas rents have soared. I think that a lot of people were all too ready to take the chance and bloody the noses of the establishment.

Anthracite

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

They do:

https://blogs.ec.europa.eu/ECintheUK/euromyths-a-z-index/

I recently read Nick Clegg's Politics: Between the Extremes. He reported getting plenty of complaints in his constituency of Sheffield Hallam about London telling them what to do. British Institutions have been constantly hollowed out over the past few decades to the point where people feel that they don't have any control of their country any more while wages have barely risen whereas rents have soared. I think that a lot of people were all too ready to take the chance and bloody the noses of the establishment.

Follow-up question: is there one of these for each national press, or only that of the UK?

ancapailldorcha

Anthracite wrote: »

Follow-up question: is there one of these for each national press, or only that of the UK?

Good question. I just googled "EU Myths" and copied the first result. I don't actually know if there is an equivalent for other countries.

Anyway, here's another which seems a little less formal:

http://www.europarl.europa.eu/unitedkingdom/en/media/euromyths.html

laoch na mona

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

They do:

https://blogs.ec.europa.eu/ECintheUK/euromyths-a-z-index/

I recently read Nick Clegg's Politics: Between the Extremes. He reported getting plenty of complaints in his constituency of Sheffield Hallam about London telling them what to do. British Institutions have been constantly hollowed out over the past few decades to the point where people feel that they don't have any control of their country any more while wages have barely risen whereas rents have soared. I think that a lot of people were all too ready to take the chance and bloody the noses of the establishment.

that's basically it for a lot of people they are already struggling with no sign of any relief so brexit was a kick against the powers that be, any fears about the economy don't resonate because they share none of the benefits from the current system

kunst nugget

Anthracite wrote: »

Follow-up question: is there one of these for each national press, or only that of the UK?

I think the page is to cover all Euro Myths but since 99% originate in the UK…

Leroy42

pixelburp wrote: »

I wasn't implying the EU were those things, merely that their constant rejection of the UK's proposals - however demonstrably unworkable they are - plays into that pre-existing narrative among the British (for want of a better catch-all demographic) that the EU aren't open to reason, fairness, etc. etc.

What is the alternative? The EU don't reject them, play along with it for a while before rejecting them?

It really can't be helped by the EU that the UK is selling this nonsense to the people.

kunst nugget

Remember Richard Littlejohn's iconic phrase 'You couldn't make it up'? Turns out you could…

zapitastas

Water John wrote: »

It hardly qualifies as unwieldy, when the EU come back with an answer in less than 24 hours. BTW the UK have spent months cobbling together this non proposal.

It must be bizarre for competent British civil service staff to have to work on this process. From dealings i would have had with DFID in Britain I found the staff to be extremely well briefed and highly professional. I imagine that is replicated throughout a lot of departments and for them to be working on brexit must be a bit of a nightmare

Seth Brundle

ilovesmybrick wrote: »

I think there's probably a realisation that the Brexit train has become unstoppable.

Pride is the only thing preventing them from stopping the train!

ancapailldorcha

Seth Brundle wrote: »

Pride is the only thing preventing them from stopping the train!

I think that it's deeper than this. The organised remnants of the Remain side are still using an economic doom and gloom narrative to try to stop Brexit. The problem is that this same message failed to energise Remain voters in 2016 and is having, if anything a diminished effect now. Since 2015, there have been local elections, two national elections and a referendum. People are fed up of this and unless the Remainers can come up with an exciting, positive narrative of the EU then Brexit will proceed.

Kermit.de.frog

EU has hit the UK government from both sides when you think about it


a. Insisting NI only for backstop means border in Irish sea - DUP could pull the plug

b. Insisting there can be no time limit implied or otherwise - Brexiteers could pull the plug


It's immaculate really.

Kermit.de.frog

Response from Downing Street:

The prime minster has been clear that we will never accept a customs border between Northern Ireland and the rest of the United Kingdom. We are also committed to maintaining the integrity of our own internal market. That position will not change. The commission’s proposals did not achieve this, which is why we have put forward our own backstop solutions for customs.

All parties must recall their commitment in the joint report to protect the Belfast agreement in all its parts.

Michel Barnier has confirmed today that discussions will now continue on our proposal.

But it was already agreed in December. Barnier says no going back on that.

Leroy42

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Response from Downing Street:



But it was already agreed in December. Barnier says no going back on that.

This is the bit that gets me. This was already agreed and now No 10 is claiming that the EU is trying to force something.

UK have now said that they don't want to create a split with NI and as such they are looking to keep the whole UK in the Zone until 2021.

How is that any different that the original transition that was previously agreed (except for the date) to December 2020?

I don't understand why the EU have such a problem with this tha they have rejected it out of hand

Nody

laoch na mona wrote: »

that's basically it for a lot of people they are already struggling with no sign of any relief so brexit was a kick against the powers that be, any fears about the economy don't resonate because they share none of the benefits from the current system

Until UK crashes out and they lose even more due to food cost increase, lack of local investments, reduction in jobs etc. I'm honestly curious what's going to be the next boogyman in the UK (obviously EU will still be around for several years as an excuse) as the reason for all evil.

Leroy42 wrote: »

This is the bit that gets me. This was already agreed and now No 10 is claiming that the EU is trying to force something.

UK have now said that they don't want to create a split with NI and as such they are looking to keep the whole UK in the Zone until 2021.

How is that any different that the original transition that was previously agreed (except for the date) to December 2020?

I don't understand why the EU have such a problem with this tha they have rejected it out of hand

Because there are multiple issues with it.

1) The original transition extension required that the solution to the NI border was agreed inc. backstop; and that solution was a permanent solution without time limit (the UK solution has a time limit)
2) It keeps UK in the CU but that's legally not possible as they leave on March 30th as per article 50 (remember the extension negotiated is a good will one; they have left EU by that stage inc. all FTA) - Hence all treaties would need to be reapproved for an exception that somehow UK is now in the EU again where as NI can be treated as a region of exception rather than a country
3) UK can negotiate new trade deals as of March 31st; that does not work with being in a CU with EU to have UK operate as a middle country for imports due to this

First Up

Nody wrote: »

Until UK crashes out and they lose even more due to food cost increase, lack of local investments, reduction in jobs etc. I'm honestly curious what's going to be the next boogyman in the UK (obviously EU will still be around for several years as an excuse) as the reason for all evil.

Because there are multiple issues with it.

1) The original transition extension required that the solution to the NI border was agreed inc. backstop; and that solution was a permanent solution without time limit (the UK solution has a time limit)
2) It keeps UK in the CU but that's legally not possible as they leave on March 30th as per article 50 (remember the extension negotiated is a good will one; they have left EU by that stage inc. all FTA) - Hence all treaties would need to be reapproved for an exception that somehow UK is now in the EU again where as NI can be treated as a region of exception rather than a country
3) UK can negotiate new trade deals as of March 31st; that does not work with being in a CU with EU to have UK operate as a middle country for imports due to this

It isn't a time limit. Its the date by when they "expect" all the trade issues with the EU to be sorted. A date was put in to appease the hard-line Brexiteers and they can decide if that's enough for them or not.

keane2097

First Up wrote: »

It isn't a time limit. Its the date by when they "expect" all the trade issues with the EU to be sorted. A date was put in to appease the hard-line Brexiteers and they can decide if that's enough for them or not.

And then later they inevitably claim it was a hard deadline regardless of whether an alternative has been agreed.

flatty

I'm stuck in the UK as my wife refuses to move back. She's a remain voting, professional, intelligent independent person. When I showed her the government enquiries about potential rationing, she just replied that half the population could do with some rationing.
I honestly think that whilst it will be pretty bad, grim in fact, most decent folk will shuffle on, the brexiteers won't be safely able to walk down a street safely, (nor will anyone else, as I expect crime to ramp up), and ironically, the yobs who voted for brexit will be screaming about their rights as welfare, NHS, policing and teaching budgets are slashed, and they struggle to pay for roaming charges.
I still think Scotland is the most interesting player in this

EdgeCase

From the EU perspective, they're basically prepared to make a special arrangement for Northern Ireland. It's a small place with very unusual circumstances.

It's of limited impact on the EU internal market, its being stable is very important to an EU member (Ireland) and the EU has no desire to see brexit undermining the peace settlement and status quo.

The DUP are rejecting what could be mana from heaven economic status for NI, placing it as some kind of special status that has huge advantages in terms of being potentially within both markets, albeit with some kind of balancing controls.

The EU isn't going to allow the entire UK to do what was propsped as a special arrangement for a fragile region as it would have serious implications for the internal market.

So, really the DUP are preventing brexit as the only other option will be remaining in the EU for most things.