Brexit discussion thread III

LeinsterDub

Over a quarter of people in the six counties say they have changed their mind since the Brexit vote and now support a united Ireland – bringing polling for a referendum to 45 per cent staying in the UK and 42 per cent leaving it, with 13 per cent undecided.

Given pollster recent inability to predict Christmas on the 24th of December and keeping in mind a recent poll indicted mid 20's support. What do we make of this?

Should those supporting a UI or independent Scotland be secretly hoping for a hard Brexit?

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-united-ireland-referendum-northern-border-uk-yougov-poll-a8389086.html?amp

BonnieSituation

LeinsterDub wrote: »

Given pollster recent inability to predict Christmas on the 24th of December and keeping in mind a recent poll indicted mid 20's support. What do we make of this?

Should those supporting a UI or independent Scotland be secretly hoping for a hard Brexit?

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-united-ireland-referendum-northern-border-uk-yougov-poll-a8389086.html?amp

The Lucid Talk polls are decent. They have been consistent over a long long period.

The questions were also clear and concise.

The queen's poll from a few weeks back was the aberration and it was full of confusing "if that then this" questions which would of course deflate and dilute any pro-UI answers.

There's no doubt that Brexit has caused a surge from small-N nationalisrs who are currentlly okay with the status quo to reconsider their stance.

Likewise it has made some small-U unionists to question just how good the union is?
While they might not necessarily reckon that a UI is for them, they certainly are recognising how much Westminster gives a crap about them.

Long may it continue.

An Ciarraioch

BonnieSituation wrote: »

LeinsterDub wrote: »

Given pollster recent inability to predict Christmas on the 24th of December and keeping in mind a recent poll indicted mid 20's support. What do we make of this?

Should those supporting a UI or independent Scotland be secretly hoping for a hard Brexit?

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-united-ireland-referendum-northern-border-uk-yougov-poll-a8389086.html?amp

The Lucid Talk polls are decent. They have been consistent over a long long period.

The questions were also clear and concise.

The queen's poll from a few weeks back was the aberration and it was full of confusing "if that then this" questions which would of course deflate and dilute any pro-UI answers.

There's no doubt that Brexit has caused a surge from small-N nationalisrs who are currentlly okay with the status quo to reconsider their stance.

Likewise it has made some small-U unionists to question just how good the union is?
While they might not necessarily reckon that a UI is for them, they certainly are recognising how much Westminster gives a crap about them.

Long may it continue.

Bangordub's demographic analysis is particularly useful in relation to the poll:

https://bangordub.wordpress.com/2018/06/09/on-a-knife-edge-brexit-lucid-talk-and-the-border-poll/#comments

BonnieSituation

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Bangordub's demographic analysis is particularly useful in relation to the poll:

https://bangordub.wordpress.com/2018/06/09/on-a-knife-edge-brexit-lucid-talk-and-the-border-poll/#comments

Yeah, I read that yesterday. Very good stuff.

flatty

Sounds like Leo is rowing back on it like mad. Appalling if so

Thargor

flatty wrote: »

Sounds like Leo is rowing back on it like mad. Appalling if so

Eh?

Anthracite

On the domestic political front, you just know that Sinn Fein are desperate to criticise FG over their handling of this.

EdgeCase

I’m not sure what he’s rolling back on?!

I wouldn’t pay much attention any commentators in the UK when it comes to Irish domestic politics - they’re clueless and typically talking nonsense for their own domestic audience.

Some of the stuff that was said by certain people over there was both clueless and risible.

briany

EdgeCase wrote: »

I’m not sure what he’s rolling back on?!

I wouldn’t pay much attention any commentators in the UK when it comes to Irish domestic politics - they’re clueless and typically talking nonsense for their own domestic audience.

Some of the stuff that was said by certain people over there was both clueless and risible.

They love using Lisbon 2 as an example of the big bad EU. It's almost like Godwinn's law - if you have a Brexit supporter on some sort of political discussion program and the Irish question comes up, it's usually only a matter of time before Lisbon 2 is mentioned.



What's annoying is that not even staunch Remain supporters who would claim to have a bit of learning ever point out that Lisbon 2 gave certain concessions and exceptions to Ireland. It wasn't quite, as Brexit supporters like to frame it, the same question asked until the 'right' answer was given.



Ignorance about Ireland is rife on both sides of the debate.

CelticRambler

Too little, too late for Brexit and the Brits, but I spent most of this (Sunday) afternoon at an open day at the European Parliament in Strasbourg, where there was a lot of effort put into trying to explain what the EU is, what it does and why you/we should get off our backsides and vote in the next European elections (2019).

Of course, if they don't put all of that on a big blue bus and tour it around the rest of the continent, it won't make much of a difference to anyone, and it's a shame nobody thought of doing it in 2016, but it's a start and there was a great "pleased to be European" buzz about the place. The "hemicycle" is pretty cool as meeting rooms go; I wonder if Nigel Farage will miss it ... ?

Water John

He'll definitely miss the salary. But then, other sources, may be willing to finance his particular focus.

Enzokk

Labour seems to be heading for a meltdown of Tory proportions in relation to Brexit. First we have Keir Starmer stating somewhat sensibly that the Labour position is that they want a customs union with the EU that eliminates the need for a border and also they will need a deal with the EU that will seem remarkably like the single market to eliminate the border. Sensible, although a little fudgy in the wording he uses.

https://twitter.com/MarrShow/status/1005735399866560512

Then we have a minor meltdown from Rebecca Long-Bailey on Ridge on Sunday where she seems to have caught that terrible, have cake and eat it disease.

https://twitter.com/adampayne26/status/1005741394504413184

https://twitter.com/adampayne26/status/1005798626294140928

So she believes that Labour could get the UK a trade deal with full access but without free movement of people. Someone needs to explain to her that this has already been explored by the UK Government. The answer was no. Trying to spin it like Labour somehow will be able to eat their cake and keep it is just silly.

Finally you have this strange tweet from Owen Jones this evening,

https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1005920434179772417

I don't know where to start with that tweet but to me a lot of the Labour supporters that are on Twitter like Jones and others have recently been putting out anti-EU messages recently. This seems to me to be a deliberate strategy to somehow paint the EU in a negative light so when the party goes against the EU if they get into power, to get around the rules around nationalisation they would need to realise their plans, this is the foundations being laid.

I think, disappointingly, we are starting to see a shift in message from those on the left. I have to wonder why this is as I am sure not long ago they were still advocating for a soft Brexit, if not a reversal of the result. I would consider myself to be left leaning in my views, but this is just silly from Labour and I am thinking that ideology will trump common sense and, if they aren't careful, they will lose all momentum they have gained by pursuing rainbows instead of being realistic about the position they are in right now.

Rain Ascending

Following Boris Johnson's disparaging remarks about predictions of extreme disruption for a no-deal Brexit, comparing them to the Y2K challenge, Brendan Harding on Slugger O'Toole posted up a very good rebuttal by revisiting what actually happened in the run-up to 2000.

For me, the key quote is this one:

Since that time, ignorant people have suggested that there was really no serious Year 2000 bug and that the whole thing was an elaborate hoax. This is a problem not necessarily with the understanding of technology, but with human psychology. It’s simply very difficult to persuade people about something that works out of sight, ensuring that everything runs as it is supposed to, when they can’t see it or directly experience what life would be like without it. Of course, exaggeration of the Year 2000 bug did occur, with some people predicting that planes would fall out of skies, and that kind of exaggeration never helps. But when people hear about issues that are more obviously exaggeration, they are inclined to believe that the issues they don’t directly understand are also exaggeration.

This explains why predictions of massive issues with food supplies and medicine availability are generally not getting attention you might expect. Another good example is what happened with the big trucker fuel protests in 2000. The system was shown to be quite fragile -- and many were surprised by that. Note that people, 18 years later, still haven't internalized the implications...

Hurrache

I worked on Y2K on various IBM mainframes. I was kept pretty busy, plenty of overtime and a retainer to keep me within the company until mid 2000. There were certainly issues there, but there was work put in to ensure they never manifested. The same amount of work is not being done in the background for Brexit.

LeinsterDub

Twelve Brexit Cherries

1. Galileo satellite program
2. Scientific research
3. Erasmus
4. Security and terrorism
5. Medicines
6. Aviation
7. Chemicals
8. Energy
9. Financial services
10. Broadcasting
11. Data protection
12. Frictionless trade

https://www.politico.eu/article/12-brexit-cherries-the-uk-wants-to-pick/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

A very interesting read but best summed up in the opening paragraph

“They were in with loads of opt-outs, now they are out and want a load of opt-ins.”

Luxembourg Prime Minister Xavier Bettel’s pithy description back in March of the U.K.’s approach to the Brexit talks is looking even more apt now that negotiators have finally gotten around to talking about what the future relationship will actually look like.

LuckyLloyd

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2018/06/06/weep-brexit-british-dash-independence-has-failed/

Leaving aside the pithy tone, this opinion piece from an ardent Brexiteer hits upon the core issue: they've made no real preparations for a Hard Brexit; they've made no real preparations in terms of Max Fac or standards alignment, etc that could facilitate a bespoke deal in theory. So they're left with an increasingly likely choice of abandonment or kicking the can indefinitely down the road - if the EU will let them.

sink

I thought this was excellent.

The Logic of Brexit

by Steve Bullock

Leave a Free Trade Area to trade more freely

Leave trade agreements to get new trade agreements

Weaken influence to become stronger

Turn inward to be more global

Opt out by opting in

Welcome people by being hostile

Avoid customs checks by leaving a Customs Union

Keep access to the single market by leaving the single market

Maintain an invisible border by installing infrastructure

Cut red tape by adding to it

Boost investment by creating uncertainty

Boost jobs by reducing growth

Take responsibility by blaming others

Unite by creating divisions

Respect the Union by ignoring the wishes of its nations

Enhance devolution by centralising power

Protect consumers by reducing standards

Help workers by removing guarantees of rights

Put people first by making them poorer

Save the NHS by driving doctors and nurses away

Bolster public services by reducing tax-take

Keep the exact-same rights by removing some of them

Tackle environmental threats by leaving an environmental regulator

Ensure security by leaving security cooperation structures

Help farmers by stopping subsidies and making their markets harder to access

Help research by making funding and cooperation harder

Guarantee peace by undermining the Good Friday Agreement

Save money by recreating the present at substantial cost

Bring clarity by creating confusion

Replace reality with fantasy

Evidence with blind faith

Honesty with dishonesty

Policy with bull****

Strategy with blagging

Possible with impossible

Leading with following

Richer with poorer

Sanity with insanity

The future with a non-existent past.

Thomas_IV

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2018/06/06/weep-brexit-british-dash-independence-has-failed/

Leaving aside the pithy tone, this opinion piece from an ardent Brexiteer hits upon the core issue: they've made no real preparations for a Hard Brexit; they've made no real preparations in terms of Max Fac or standards alignment, etc that could facilitate a bespoke deal in theory. So they're left with an increasingly likely choice of abandonment or kicking the can indefinitely down the road - if the EU will let them.

I really doubt that the EU will let them. As time is running out, the one possibility which the EU might let them is to reverse Brexit and stay a EU member. Since the chances of the aforesaid are rather thin and the diehards are still on the levers of power, the road to catastrophe continues.

Thomas_IV

LeinsterDub wrote: »

Given pollster recent inability to predict Christmas on the 24th of December and keeping in mind a recent poll indicted mid 20's support. What do we make of this?

Should those supporting a UI or independent Scotland be secretly hoping for a hard Brexit?

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-united-ireland-referendum-northern-border-uk-yougov-poll-a8389086.html?amp

I think that they should, cos that will lead to first an independent Scotland that provides for the break up of the UK and leaves the Unionist/Loyalists in NI at the hard place with no other option than to contemplate and approve for a UI in the mid run.

When you look at the way the DUP behaves since they have the UK PM by her balls due to the backing of them she needs to secure a majority in the Commons, there isn't the slightest doubt about that they head for a hard Brexit. That is just for the 'sake' of going together with GB even if it means the downfall of the UK and (hopefully) this despicable party in NI.

Tbf, I'd prefer to have the UK staying in the EU, for the sake of all of us, but it'll certainly take a lot efforts to reverse Brexit anyway. The most important measure would be to set up a BrexitRef2 giving the electorate the chance to vote on it again and hopefully with a majority for remain as a result. Some efforts are already taken and developments are reported to gain more support, but realistically I am not that optimistic about whether they will succeed and that in time, because time really is of the essence.

Leroy42

IMO their has been a change in attitude (or more likely I didn't pick up on it, or maybe I am totally wrong!).

Barnier was very quick and to the point to dismiss the latest proposal by the UK. This was a proposal than nearly caused a senior minister to resign, the required a number of meetings by TM to hold her party together and was clearly a very sensitive subject for the government, yet the EU basically tossed it aside with only a cursory nod.

His language was also quite pointed (particularly his line about backstop meaning backstop). This is very different from the previous tone which was almost trying to help May and the government, not to be seen to dismiss anything (whilst clearly doing so).

His later tweet, which he tried to row back a bit, was a little bit late and was trying to row back on the real position. They have lost faith in the UK, in TM, in the negotiations. They don't think the UK either have the ability, or if they do the desire, to find a real solution.

So I don't think they will let it drag on, and they certainly won't allow cancel of A50 without some pretty iron clad guarantees about the future, so its a total non runner.

trellheim

Here are the latest commission slides on the UK backstop

https://ec.europa.eu/commission/sites/beta-political/files/slides_on_uk_technical_note_on_temporary_customs_arrangements.pdf

PS in other news Land Rover Discovery manufacture is off to Slovakia

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-06-11/jaguar-land-rover-to-move-discovery-suv-production-to-slovakia ... they will not be happy in the west midlands.

Tata taking the prudent option

Thomas_IV

Leroy42 wrote: »

IMO their has been a change in attitude (or more likely I didn't pick up on it, or maybe I am totally wrong!).

Barnier was very quick and to the point to dismiss the latest proposal by the UK. This was a proposal than nearly caused a senior minister to resign, the required a number of meetings by TM to hold her party together and was clearly a very sensitive subject for the government, yet the EU basically tossed it aside with only a cursory nod.

His language was also quite pointed (particularly his line about backstop meaning backstop). This is very different from the previous tone which was almost trying to help May and the government, not to be seen to dismiss anything (whilst clearly doing so).

His later tweet, which he tried to row back a bit, was a little bit late and was trying to row back on the real position. They have lost faith in the UK, in TM, in the negotiations. They don't think the UK either have the ability, or if they do the desire, to find a real solution.

So I don't think they will let it drag on, and they certainly won't allow cancel of A50 without some pretty iron clad guarantees about the future, so its a total non runner.

I think that this is a very realistic account of the EU stance on the UK govt, the PM and the current stage of the negotiations. In short, one can say that they are probably already fed up with them Brexiters UK govt.

trellheim

Infographic for Backstop ( if anyone wants to crop it to a picture feel free )

https://ec.europa.eu/commission/sites/beta-political/files/infographic_on_the_eu_backstop_proposal.pdf

Nody

trellheim wrote: »

Infographic for Backstop ( if anyone wants to crop it to a picture feel free )

https://ec.europa.eu/commission/sites/beta-political/files/infographic_on_the_eu_backstop_proposal.pdf

You're welcome :P

Infini

Leroy42 wrote: »

IMO their has been a change in attitude (or more likely I didn't pick up on it, or maybe I am totally wrong!).

Barnier was very quick and to the point to dismiss the latest proposal by the UK. This was a proposal than nearly caused a senior minister to resign, the required a number of meetings by TM to hold her party together and was clearly a very sensitive subject for the government, yet the EU basically tossed it aside with only a cursory nod.

His language was also quite pointed (particularly his line about backstop meaning backstop). This is very different from the previous tone which was almost trying to help May and the government, not to be seen to dismiss anything (whilst clearly doing so).

His later tweet, which he tried to row back a bit, was a little bit late and was trying to row back on the real position. They have lost faith in the UK, in TM, in the negotiations. They don't think the UK either have the ability, or if they do the desire, to find a real solution.

So I don't think they will let it drag on, and they certainly won't allow cancel of A50 without some pretty iron clad guarantees about the future, so its a total non runner.

Realistically even all of us looking at the news can see the UKs position is a total joke and completely lacking of real planning. They rushed into this with no planning or concept of what they were doing and now its scaring them as the real consequences become clearer by the day.

There's a remote possibilty of this being aborted at the last minute but realistically the only way of this happening is if parliment has the guts to overrule May and even disregard Corbyn en masse. Otherwisd its off the cliff they go along with the future of their country.

Leroy42

Infini wrote: »

There's a remote possibilty of this being aborted at the last minute but realistically the only way of this happening is if parliment has the guts to overrule May and even disregard Corbyn en masse. Otherwisd its off the cliff they go along with the future of their country.

This is the bit I am having trouble with. I just cannot see how any MP and PM could follow a course of action that will lead to things getting worse.

Are they tied by the ref, too scared to call a halt as they think that the voters will revolt?

Do they have trust that the future benefits really do outweigh the short term costs? Why have they not been able to give any details of these benefits apart from "there will be lots".

This this remove, it seems to me that the UK have tied itself to this boulder. The voters were sold a pup, and tbh let themselves believe the fantasy. Now that is being used as the reason why, no matter what, it must go ahead because it was voted on. So voters made their decision thinking the politicians must know what they are talking about, and the politicians are making their decision thinking that the voters must have known what they were voting for!

ancapailldorcha

Mod: One-liner deleted.

flatty

EdgeCase wrote: »

I’m not sure what he’s rolling back on?!

I wouldn’t pay much attention any commentators in the UK when it comes to Irish domestic politics - they’re clueless and typically talking nonsense for their own domestic audience.

Some of the stuff that was said by certain people over there was both clueless and risible.

No
He's already come out and said that now is not the time to be thinking about a border poll. He's terrified, along with the Dublin clique, that it may actually be successful.

trellheim

Right folks

I'd expect lots of shouting and howling in the Commons tomorrow as the Lords amendments to the Great Brexit bill come up for sorting out . Here's the order paper for Tue and Wed https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201719/cmagenda/fb180611.htm

as you can see - ram-it-through in 2 days or thereabouts but the debate will really show - especially on the Labour side - what the appetite is for destruction. The voting is key to all of this so watch the fun very carefully, expect the doctors of spin to be out in full force.

LeinsterDub

This is from the Express!

'Is it a backstop?' May's time-limited proposal TORN APART as EU turns screws on Brexit

THE European Union has systematically dismantled Theresa May’s demand for a “time-limited” backstop plan to prevent a hard border emerging on the island of Ireland, dismissing much of its content

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/972674/Brexit-news-UK-EU-Theresa-May-backstop-Ireland-Michel-Barnier-latest

Same story in the indo if you prefer
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-latest-theresa-may-eu-northern-ireland-border-deal-uk-a8393456.html

I think it's speaks volumes that the Express aren't even attempting to spin this anymore and the article is surprisingly neutral. I've notice change in the tone of the Express in the past few day. The editor of the Mail has also jumped ship.

Is the Brexit press preparing to jumping ship ?

KingNerolives

The dup must be embarrassed now

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/972619/brexit-news-britain-france-technology-leader-google-facebook-amazon-theresa-may-macron

I suppose that one is similar as well.

Nate--IRL--

flatty wrote: »

No
He's already come out and said that now is not the time to be thinking about a border poll. He's terrified, along with the Dublin clique, that it may actually be successful.

The time for going for the jugular for a border poll is after Brexit is implemented and a proven disaster.


You'll know the time is right when SF go for it in earnest. They are smart enough to have learned from the Scottish ref, and the folly of shooting your bolt too soon.


Nate

Infini

Nate--IRL-- wrote: »

The time for going for the jugular for a border poll is after Brexit is implemented and a proven disaster.


You'll know the time is right when SF go for it in earnest. They are smart enough to have learned from the Scottish ref, and the folly of shooting your bolt too soon.


Nate

Its probably not Sinn Fein buy others on the south who would prefer patience and more long term thinking in regards to a border poll. A 50+1 result is not something that would be desired for this but rather something above 60% as this would decisively shut down the head bangers once and for all.

Something like this would only pass if the benefits werr to seriously outweigh the drawbacks and hopefully the EU would be ready to step in to help with the issue should it become a realistic option.

Capt'n Midnight

Still not seeing any Brexit Bonus.



Jaguar Land Rover to shed 1,000 contract staff

Rolls-Royce refuses to confirm or deny 4,000 job cuts report

Poundworld enters administration after rescue talks fail

But despite the collapse of so many stores, David Gill, the national officer for the Union of Shop, Distributive and Allied Workers, was not wholly pessimistic: "When Toys R Us went into administration we had a number of retailers we work closely with saying 'there are job vacancies can you point them in this direction?', but whether you can absorb all 5,000 jobs that's another discussion."

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-44438838

Manufacturing output fell 1.4% in April, the biggest fall for nearly six years, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
...

The UK's trade deficit in April was the widest since September 2016 driven in particular by falls in exports of aircraft, pharmaceuticals and machinery.

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-44438839

The economic "bounce-back" expected by the Bank of England is struggling to materialise, according to a leading economic forecaster.

The National Institute for Economic and Social Research (NIESR) said growth between March and May was just 0.2%,

This is the value of the pound graph they showed in the Poundland story.

The graph agains the Euro is a lot flatter..

KingNerolives

Should rise to above 1.7 after brexit

KingNerolives

KingNerolives wrote: »

Should rise to above 1.7 after brexit

I assume you are liquidating all of your assets in order to buy the Future available on CME?

http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/fx/g10/british-pound.html

Huge ROI available to you if you truly believe that.

flatty

Nate--IRL-- wrote: »

flatty wrote: »

No
He's already come out and said that now is not the time to be thinking about a border poll. He's terrified, along with the Dublin clique, that it may actually be successful.

The time for going for the jugular for a border poll is after Brexit is implemented and a proven disaster.


You'll know the time is right when SF go for it in earnest. They are smart enough to have learned from the Scottish ref, and the folly of shooting your bolt too soon.


Nate

In fairness to the Scots they could never have envisaged brexit at the time.

flatty

LeinsterDub wrote: »

This is from the Express!

'Is it a backstop?' May's time-limited proposal TORN APART as EU turns screws on Brexit

THE European Union has systematically dismantled Theresa May’s demand for a “time-limited” backstop plan to prevent a hard border emerging on the island of Ireland, dismissing much of its content

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/972674/Brexit-news-UK-EU-Theresa-May-backstop-Ireland-Michel-Barnier-latest

Same story in the indo if you prefer
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-latest-theresa-may-eu-northern-ireland-border-deal-uk-a8393456.html

I think it's speaks volumes that the Express aren't even attempting to spin this anymore and the article is surprisingly neutral. I've notice change in the tone of the Express in the past few day. The editor of the Mail has also jumped ship.

Is the Brexit press preparing to jumping ship ?

Sunday Times has jumped already.

Patser

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Still not seeing any Brexit Bonus.


This is the value of the pound graph they showed in the Poundland story.

The graph agains the Euro is a lot flatter..

The Euro graph you have linked is only for last year, and while flatter than dollar fluctuations, it doesn't show the massive drops that took place post brexit - and which show no signs of bouncing back.

3 years ago £1 = €1.44 although that was at height of Greece crisis when Euros existence seemed in threat, so historically the pound normally hovered around €1.30\1.35. For much of last year its been stuck between €1.10/1.15





https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/bank-of-england-spot/historical-spot-exchange-rates/gbp/GBP-to-EUR

BonnieSituation

flatty wrote: »

In fairness to the Scots they could never have envisaged brexit at the time.

Well you could always envisage that the Tories would screw them in future. Cos that's what they do.

listermint

Theres a bigger concern here as to why May is not going hell for leather on the A.banks story and the Russian involvement. There's a large hook to hand the whole thing on and its right there for the taking.

Anthracite

flatty wrote: »

Sunday Times has jumped already.

It was always Remain.

An Ciarraioch

Seems the "rebels" are now backing a "customs arrangement" motion:

https://mobile.twitter.com/SkyNewsPolitics/status/1006268344348106758?p=v

Anthracite

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Seems the "rebels" are now backing a "customs arrangement" motion:

https://mobile.twitter.com/SkyNewsPolitics/status/1006268344348106758?p=v

Being in the customs union does not deal with the regulatory border.

Capt'n Midnight

listermint wrote: »

Theres a bigger concern here as to why May is not going hell for leather on the A.banks story and the Russian involvement. There's a large hook to hand the whole thing on and its right there for the taking.

Three letters.

ECJ


For May everything else is collateral damage.

joeysoap

Anthracite wrote: »

It was always Remain.

It was always leave.

Anthracite

joeysoap wrote: »

It was always leave.

You are right.

Peregrinus

Leroy42 wrote: »

This is the bit I am having trouble with. I just cannot see how any MP and PM could follow a course of action that will lead to things getting worse . . .

The thing is that no-deal hard brexit is the default.

You don't have to "follow a course of action" to get there. All you have to do is fail to follow a course of action which will avoid it.

What the UK needs is a course of action which (a) enjoys some kind of consensus in the UK, and (b) is acceptable to the EU. If they can't develop such a course and follow it, there will be a no-deal hard Brexit.

May spent the first year or so after the referendum doing everything possible to sabotage the development of any kind of consensus. Since the disastrous (for her) general election result she has been trying to reclaim the position, inch by grinding inch, dragging her cabinet and her party towards a softer and more realistic vision of Brexit. She's had some success, but she may not be able to complete the task in the time available (or at all).

Zubeneschamali

Peregrinus wrote: »

The thing is that no-deal hard brexit is the default.

Well, yes, but that is like saying that a huge crash is the default result of a game of chicken. In practice someone blinks first and dodges the crash, especially when they are in a Mini vs. a bin lorry.



The EU does not want to see a hard brexit crash out with no deal, so when the UK finally blinks and accepts reality, even if it is last minute stuff, the EU will accommodate whatever delay is needed to get them into a Canada type deal with an exception for NI (or whatever the UK government of the day finally agrees on).