Brexit discussion thread III

Ellian

SNP's Peter Grant is speaking rather well IMO. The pro government narrative esp against Amendment 19 seems to be that the Lords are deliberately attempting to frustrate Brexit entirely by dressing up their arguments as parliamentary sovereignty. Whereas those on the other side are arguing that it is really is parliamentary sovereignty.

LeinsterDub

EU Withdrawal Bill: Four more ministers prepared to quit over Brexit after Phillip Lee's 'warning shot' resignation

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/06/12/eu-withdrawal-bill-minister-quits-hours-crucial-brexit-vote/

Are the wheels starting to come off? We've been here before I suppose and May has limped on . Only time will tell.

FrancieBrady

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

I think our dependency will lessen now regardless of the outcome. This has been a wake up call for Ireland economically and strategically. We have seen how quickly the Tory eurosceptics blamed lack of progress on Ireland and how ready they are to throw peace under the bus. In the same vein, they were happy to threaten our economy if we didn't acquiesce.

The lesson for everyone on the island should be as nationalists/republicans have always said: ultimately Britain does not care and will act selfishly in the interests of itself. Irish people deluding themselves that they are an equal part of Britain will be sadly forced to confront this.
Much better to be a full partner in the governing of your own island.

J Mysterio

Tory minister Phillip Lee resigns over Brexit on day of crucial EU withdrawal votes

The ex-minister said 'I cannot, in all good conscience, support how our country’s current exit from the EU looks'

A Conservative minister has quit his job over the way Theresa May is delivering Brexit, in a blow for the government ahead of critical votes in the House of Commons.

Dr Phillip Lee said the move was due to his intention to back a plan giving parliament power to direct Ms May’s approach, something the prime minister is determined to avoid. 

J Mysterio

An Ciarraioch

Looks like the Tory rebels will back down on the "meaningful vote" amendment, as May has promised to introduce its own one in the Lords.

Infini

J Mysterio wrote: »

Last time I checked 17m of a pop of 64m was a minority. Vote was 51/49 so could hardly call that "the will of the people". I would also say if there's a 2nd referendum people are gonna vote remain this time! :P

Honestly when all this is said and done some of these "publications" need to be sorted out because that shíte is well into propaganda rag territory not news.

An Ciarraioch

Faisal Islam reports May accepts parts A and B of George's amendment, but not C:

https://mobile.twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1006561965228068866/photo/1

eire4

Infini wrote: »

Last time I checked 17m of a pop of 64m was a minority. Vote was 51/49 so could hardly call that "the will of the people". I would also say if there's a 2nd referendum people are gonna vote remain this time! :P

Honestly when all this is said and done some of these "publications" need to be sorted out because that sh is well into propaganda rag territory not news.

Your certainly right about those "publications" being propaganda outlets rather then legit news sources. But come one now that is not exactly new for the Express and the Sun they have been far right propaganda outlets rather then legit news sources for quite some time now so it is all rather as you would expect how they are currently behaving.

An Ciarraioch

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Faisal Islam reports May accepts parts A and B of George's amendment, but not C:

https://mobile.twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1006561965228068866/photo/1

The implication of both appears to take "no deal" off the table at least until the 30th of November.

Christy42

J Mysterio wrote: »

https://www.google.ie/amp/s/inews.co.uk/news/uk/sun-great-britain-front-page/amp/

As ever the Sun have not put an ounce of thought into it given most of the landmarks featured are not in fact very British are generally only there due to immigrants or even the EU in the case of the angel of the north. Heck even the Sun itself is Australian owned if I remember correctly.

ancapailldorcha

Christy42 wrote: »

https://www.google.ie/amp/s/inews.co.uk/news/uk/sun-great-britain-front-page/amp/

As ever the Sun have not put an ounce of thought into it given most of the landmarks featured are not in fact very British are generally only there due to immigrants or even the EU in the case of the angel of the north. Heck even the Sun itself is Australian owned if I remember correctly.

I haven't factchecked this but I would expect it to be true:

https://twitter.com/Otto_English/status/1006294392032956416

An Ciarraioch

Meaningful vote amendment now being voted on.

An Ciarraioch

Government wins 324-298.

For Forks Sake

Christy42 wrote: »

https://www.google.ie/amp/s/inews.co.uk/news/uk/sun-great-britain-front-page/amp/

As ever the Sun have not put an ounce of thought into it given most of the landmarks featured are not in fact very British are generally only there due to immigrants or even the EU in the case of the angel of the north. Heck even the Sun itself is Australian owned if I remember correctly.

And the Loch Ness monster (actually in there, just below Angel of the North) ?

Capt'n Midnight

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I think it is entirely fair to say, that all on their own volition, the DUP have set themselves up to win(in their own eyes) or lose here.
The DUP's socially and now economic regressivness has been laid bare either way. .

In todays I can't believe it's not democratic, DUP news. The party that could trigger an election tomorrow.

A DUP insider told the BBC's Nolan Show politicians are forced to pay as much as £1,000 if they break internal protocol on dealing with the press.

The practice of fining elected representatives was "quite unacceptable", said the former chairman of the Committee on Standards in Public Life, as it undermines democracy, and is authoritarian and draconian.

"Elected representatives represent their constituents, even though they have been elected on a particular party ticket, they are there to put over their point of view representing those constituents," said Sir Alastair Graham.

"If they are severely constrained through threats and fines, then that really does undermine their effectiveness," he added.

....
In 2007, as the DUP contemplated sharing power with Sinn Fein, the BBC reported that party candidates were being asked to sign post dated resignation letters and to pay big fines if they stepped out of line.

The Ulster Unionists described the DUP rules as bordering on "fascism".

joeysoap

Afaik the mini is now German owned?


A spitfire, bless.

And a football.

Rod Liddell was funny in Sunday Times tbf..

Still, at least it is comforting to know that football fans in Cardiff, Edinburgh, Belfast and Dublin will be rooting for us as the only representatives of these isles.

Funny man ( he is actually)

An Ciarraioch

Interesting development as Barnier offers EEA plus a bespoke customs union:

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/britain-could-keep-frictionless-trade-after-brexit-by-joining-eea-and-customs-union-michel-barnier-says/ar-AAyybfi

Enzokk

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Interesting development as Barnier offers EEA plus a bespoke customs union:

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/britain-could-keep-frictionless-trade-after-brexit-by-joining-eea-and-customs-union-michel-barnier-says/ar-AAyybfi

I don't know if he offered it but presented it as a solution to the commitments made by the UK and fulfilling their desire to leave the EU. But that would mean there would still be free movement of goods and people and also they would not be able to have their own trade deals so already there is two red lines that will need to be broken for this to happen.

Jim2007

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Interesting development as Barnier offers EEA plus a bespoke customs union:

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/britain-could-keep-frictionless-trade-after-brexit-by-joining-eea-and-customs-union-michel-barnier-says/ar-AAyybfi

Barnier can't offer EEA membership, nor can the EU unless the UK remains a member. Otherwise, it is up to the EFTA members to decide if they wish to admit the UK or not. Norway have already indicated their reluctance to admit them and Switzerland would most likely need to hold a referendum.

It seems what Barnier actual said was: the EEA with a customs union was a possible model for a future relationship, and that the two were not incompatible.

And both Norway and Switzerland have said that if the UK gets a new deal then they also want to renegotiate.

flatty

So what does today's parliamentary vote actually mean?
Is it an expected rubber stamp which means that a hard brexit is still the most likely outcome, or has anything unexpected happened, or actually changed?

An Ciarraioch

flatty wrote: »

So what does today's parliamentary vote actually mean?
Is it an expected rubber stamp which means that a hard brexit is still the most likely outcome, or has anything unexpected happened, or actually changed?

Having to concede points to Grieve essentially takes "no deal" off the table, even if the eventual outcome remains up in the air.

FrancieBrady

flatty wrote: »

So what does today's parliamentary vote actually mean?
Is it an expected rubber stamp which means that a hard brexit is still the most likely outcome, or has anything unexpected happened, or actually changed?

May cannot use No Deal as leverage in negotiations.

As somebody said on the radio - she is out of the frying pan and into the tumble dryer.

J Mysterio

John Humphrys interview with David Davis on Today Programme (from 2:11:00).

Humphrys works him pretty hard and Davis forgets what day of the week it is. Couple of interesting bits. Says:

▪'I know whats not going to happen' re: what UK won't concede (red lines) but refuses to recognise EU redlines aka cherrypicking. ▪Strongly emphasises 'no single market, no customs union' ▪'Whatever meaningul vote there will be, it wont be about reversing the vote of the people'. Doesnt make sense, you can change your mind in a democracy. Logic dictates mistakes will be made. ▪"the PM and I are always very suprised how informed the EU leaders are, they read everything'.

Seth Brundle

David Davis wrote:

the PM and I are very suprised how informed the EU leaders are, they read everything'.[/list]

Christ almighty!

BonnieSituation

Seth Brundle wrote: »

Christ almighty!

That's a British trait though.

They always seem to be very shocked at others knowledge of them and theirs.

Charles Babbage

BonnieSituation wrote: »

That's a British trait though.

They always seem to be very shocked at others knowledge of them and theirs.

The English went about making everyone learn their language and then they wonder why others know so much about them, and it isn't a pretty picture right now.

BonnieSituation

"How do you know so much about Brexit?"

Peregrinus

flatty wrote: »

So what does today's parliamentary vote actually mean?
Is it an expected rubber stamp which means that a hard brexit is still the most likely outcome, or has anything unexpected happened, or actually changed?

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Having to concede points to Grieve essentially takes "no deal" off the table, even if the eventual outcome remains up in the air.

FrancieBrady wrote: »

May cannot use No Deal as leverage in negotiations.

What An Ciarraioch and Francie said; May cannot use threat of "no deal" as leverage in negotiations with the EU. But a couple of points about that.

1. She never could use it that way; it has no leverage. No deal would be bad for the EU but much, much worse for the UK. The UK knows this. The EU knows this. The UK knows that the EU knows this. As between the UK and the EU, "we'd prefer no deal!" is not a credible UK position, and you can't get leverage in negotiations by taking an incredible position.

2. That's not to say no deal is an impossible outcome. It's impossible that the UK would choose no deal, but it's entirely possible that no deal will be the result of ineptitude, incompetence, idiocy, brinksmanship or the UK's general failure to get its act together.

3. The real significance of the vote is not the implications it has for the EU/UK negotiations - none, basically - but the implications it has for the internal UK discourse. It makes it difficult for May to say, for domestic consumption, that she will threaten to opt for no deal. And it makes it difficult for the ultra-Brexiters to demand (with any credibility) that she should, since it is clear that she will not enjoy the confidence of Parliament if she does. So it weakens somewhat the strategic position of the hard Brexit camp in the (somewhat surreal) internal UK discourse.

4. This, in turn, may somewhat improve the chances of the UK avoiding a crash-out Brexit, though it's hard to quantify that improvement. But a slightly weakened hard Brexit camp at home might mean that May is under slightly less pressure and has to engage in slightly less delay/brinksmanship/pretence, and so there is slightly less risk of the UK falling into a no-deal Brexit.

An Claidheamh

In our daily British ignorance update.

Seems like some of their upper classes want to start a war in the North.

How could it possibly backfire.......?


https://mobile.twitter.com/seanwhelanrte/status/1006527293018296321

flatty

Peregrinus wrote: »

flatty wrote: »

So what does today's parliamentary vote actually mean?
Is it an expected rubber stamp which means that a hard brexit is still the most likely outcome, or has anything unexpected happened, or actually changed?

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Having to concede points to Grieve essentially takes "no deal" off the table, even if the eventual outcome remains up in the air.

FrancieBrady wrote: »

May cannot use No Deal as leverage in negotiations.

What An Ciarraioch and Francie said; May cannot use threat of "no deal" as leverage in negotiations with the EU. But a couple of points about that.

1. She never could use it that way; it has no leverage. No deal would be bad for the EU but much, much worse for the UK. The UK knows this. The EU knows this. The UK knows that the EU knows this. As between the UK and the EU, "we'd prefer no deal!" is not a credible UK position, and you can't get leverage in negotiations by taking an incredible position.

2. That's not to say no deal is an impossible outcome. It's impossible that the UK would choose no deal, but it's entirely possible that no deal will be the result of ineptitude, incompetence, idiocy, brinksmanship or the UK's general failure to get its act together.

3. The real significance of the vote is not the implications it has for the EU/UK negotiations - none, basically - but the implications it has for the internal UK discourse. It makes it difficult for May to say, for domestic consumption, that she will threaten to opt for no deal. And it makes it difficult for the ultra-Brexiters to demand (with any credibility) that she should, since it is clear that she will not enjoy the confidence of Parliament if she does. So it weakens somewhat the strategic position of the hard Brexit camp in the (somewhat surreal) internal UK discourse.

4. This, in turn, may somewhat improve the chances of the UK avoiding a crash-out Brexit, though it's hard to quantify that improvement. But a slightly weakened hard Brexit camp at home might mean that May is under slightly less pressure and has to engage in slightly less delay/brinksmanship/pretence, and so there is slightly less risk of the UK falling into a no-deal Brexit.

Thankyou. That explained it very well.

Peregrinus

Just to add to what I said in my post above:

The government has caved to some extent to the Tory Remainers, but they have yet to publish the precise wording of the amendment which will limit their ability to threaten a hard Brexit. The Tory Remainers are putting a particular spin on what has been agreed; the government a slightly different spin. When we get actual text of actual law, we may have a clearer view of what has been agreed and how much it constrains the government. Or, it may turn out that the agreement will fall apart.

We won't have long to wait. The Bill is being allowed to go through the Commons now on the basis that when it goes back to the Lords (on Monday or Tuesday) the government will put in an amendment to give effect to their agreement with the Remainers. The Bill as amended in the Lords then comes back to the Commons for final approval later in the week. At that point we find out if the Remainers in the Commons agree that the amendment inserted by the government does reflect what they think they have agreed.

Leroy42

Looks like JRM is not exactly betting the house of Brexit being a complete success.

https://twitter.com/MarkDiStef/status/1006803255870066689

http://citywire.co.uk/wealth-manager/news/jacob-rees-moggs-boutique-reaches-out-to-europe-with-funds-deal/a1103017

So we have Lawson getting French residency, Farage's kids have German passports and now JRM is actively looking to set up business outside of the UK ti make sure he maintains access to the EU.

Why are they not being tasked with explaining why they are taking these steps when the local person in the UK will not have that option? Surely the people can see that they have been sold a pup?

Professor Moriarty

An Claidheamh wrote: »

In our daily British ignorance update.

Seems like some of their upper classes want to start a war in the North.

How could it possibly backfire.......?


https://mobile.twitter.com/seanwhelanrte/status/1006527293018296321

Actually, they are both far left academics. More Joseph Stalin than Jacob Rees-Mogg.

Igotadose

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Actually, they are both far left academics. More Joseph Stalin than Jacob Rees-Mogg.

Whatever they are, what a shockingly bad article, warmongering at its finest. Just bring the army in and set those pesky Irish to rights. From so-called academics, too, o.k. with people being killed to not stop Brexit.

An Ciarraioch

The SNP walk out of the House of Commons on a point of order concerning votes, after a devolution debate concerning Brexit powers only lasted 15 minutes yesterday.

An Claidheamh

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Actually, they are both far left academics. More Joseph Stalin than Jacob Rees-Mogg.

That's correct, but they're still upper class who with the same jingoism and delusions.

As was pointed out by some on twitter.

They stink of the old 'British Irish Communist Organisation' an apparent left wing academic group in the 70/80s who blamed the whole Northern conflict on the nationalist victims - absolving Britain and the unionists of any guilt.
Essentially, they believed Irish people should take their punishment for existing.

Mary Robinson was a member.

Igotadose

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

The SNP walk out of the House of Commons on a point of order concerning votes, after a devolution debate concerning Brexit powers only lasted 15 minutes yesterday.

Their leader was expelled by the Speaker. Good to see emotions running high

An Ciarraioch

Both geographically and politically, looks like Holland will be one of our closest allies from 2019 onwards:

https://mobile.twitter.com/adamfleming/status/1006874879063396352

An Ciarraioch

Meanwhile, it appears part C of the Grieve amendment isn't even up for discussion:

https://mobile.twitter.com/GuardianHeather/status/1006879154527141888

Peregrinus

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Meanwhile, it appears part C of the Grieve amendment isn't even up for discussion:

https://mobile.twitter.com/GuardianHeather/status/1006879154527141888

Yes, but an alternative to clause (c) is up for discussion. At least, that's what the Remainers think they've been told. They'll be quite cross if it turns out not to be true.

Patience, young grasshopper! One way or the other, we should know by Tuesday.

Leroy42

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Meanwhile, it appears part C of the Grieve amendment isn't even up for discussion:

https://mobile.twitter.com/GuardianHeather/status/1006879154527141888

Not surprised.

The only thing I was surprised by was that they accepted the word of May and the government. They have basically spent every day since last December claiming that unless it is legally binding text then no agreement is real.

They were played. May needed to get through the vote and achieved her aim. This government is living day to day. There is no overall plan, no strategy. Just get through the next 24 hours and start again.

farmchoice

keir stamer speaking in the house at the moment has pretty much just outlined remaining in the customs union and single market. when asked about the ability to strike new trade deals the term he used is ''new trade deals stuck jointly with the EU''.



this seems to single that the labour policy will be CU and SM, with some sort of arrangement where UK agree with all future new trade agreements, pretty much the exact position as it is now.

Professor Moriarty

Leroy42 wrote: »

Not surprised.

The only thing I was surprised by was that they accepted the word of May and the government. They have basically spent every day since last December claiming that unless it is legally binding text then no agreement is real.

They were played. May needed to get through the vote and achieved her aim. This government is living day to day. There is no overall plan, no strategy. Just get through the next 24 hours and start again.

From Matt's cartoon in The Telegraph: "So, the government lives to surrender another day."

An Ciarraioch

farmchoice wrote: »

keir stamer speaking in the house at the moment has pretty much just outlined remaining in the customs union and single market. when asked about the ability to strike new trade deals the term he used is ''new trade deals stuck jointly with the EU''.



this seems to single that the labour policy will be CU and SM, with some sort of arrangement where UK agree with all future new trade agreements, pretty much the exact position as it is now.

Possibly more Duke of York stuff, but Faisal Islam's tweet is intriguing:

https://mobile.twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1006882047405719557

An Ciarraioch

One overlooked vote yesterday saw the Patten amendment pass into law, after some slight alteration, with some Labour and Tory MPs suggesting only the softest of Brexits can meet its requirements:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2018/jun/13/brexit-parliament-wont-be-allowed-to-take-charge-of-talks-in-no-deal-scenario-minister-tells-tory-rebels-politics-live

J Mysterio

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

One overlooked vote yesterday saw the Patten amendment pass into law, after some slight alteration, with some Labour and Tory MPs suggesting only the softest of Brexits can meet its requirements:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2018/jun/13/brexit-parliament-wont-be-allowed-to-take-charge-of-talks-in-no-deal-scenario-minister-tells-tory-rebels-politics-live

Interesting.

Dymo

J Mysterio wrote: »

Interesting.

That is very interesting but typical, they don't care about the problem in the north and just want it to go away.

An Ciarraioch

And Chuka Umunna, on a similar theme:

https://mobile.twitter.com/ChukaUmunna/status/1006900129427648514

Enzokk

Dymo wrote: »

That is very interesting but typical, they don't care about the problem in the north and just want it to go away.

The only way that the UK can now Brexit for what "people voted for" is by basically letting NI be separate from the rest of the UK due to the GFA. Either way someone will be peeved at the outcome of this. Either the "rebels" will need to actually rebel because they have been lied to, or DD will get to quit as he seems to want to do because his Brexit wishes is being waylaid. Or the DUP will be almighty let down when the UK decides its better for the country to have NI as a separate part of the UK due to their special circumstances.