Brexit discussion thread III

Leroy42

Or they could leave with a hard border in NI.

The Secretary response merely said that their intention was no border.

funkey_monkey

Leroy42 wrote: »

Looks like JRM is not exactly betting the house of Brexit being a complete success.

https://twitter.com/MarkDiStef/status/1006803255870066689

http://citywire.co.uk/wealth-manager/news/jacob-rees-moggs-boutique-reaches-out-to-europe-with-funds-deal/a1103017

So we have Lawson getting French residency, Farage's kids have German passports and now JRM is actively looking to set up business outside of the UK ti make sure he maintains access to the EU.

Why are they not being tasked with explaining why they are taking these steps when the local person in the UK will not have that option? Surely the people can see that they have been sold a pup?

How is this playing out in the British press and political fields? Is it getting much traction?

BonnieSituation

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Both geographically and politically, looks like Holland will be one of our closest allies from 2019 onwards:

https://mobile.twitter.com/adamfleming/status/1006874879063396352

So what you're saying is that the EU of which we are a member won't throw us under the Brexit bus?

Shocking!

FrancieBrady

Leroy42 wrote: »

Or they could leave with a hard border in NI.

The Secretary response merely said that their intention was no border.

I said over a year ago that ultimately the DUP might be the ones shafted here. Not one care do the Torys for northern Ireland or the DUP.
May knows that the wrath of Irish unionists can only damage Irish unionists. - The wrath of Irish republicans can damage her Brexit though as we can veto any deal. '
Arlene and her crew have to hope that they remain in some sort of power share otherwise under the bus they will go.

FrancieBrady

Leroy42 wrote: »

Or they could leave with a hard border in NI.

The Secretary response merely said that their intention was no border.

I said over a year ago that ultimately the DUP might be the ones shafted here. Not one care do the Torys for northern Ireland or the DUP.
May knows that the wrath of Irish unionists can only damage Irish unionists. - The wrath of Irish republicans can damage her Brexit though as we can veto any deal. '
Arlene and her crew have to hope that they remain in some sort of power share otherwise under the bus they will go.

Dymo

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I said over a year ago that ultimately the DUP might be the ones shafted here. Not one care do the Torys for northern Ireland or the DUP.
May knows that the wrath of Irish unionists can only damage Irish unionists. - The wrath of Irish republicans can damage her Brexit though as we can veto any deal. '
Arlene and her crew have to hope that they remain in some sort of power share otherwise under the bus they will go.

But they can still bring down the current government, if that wasn't the case it would have been sorted months ago.

An Ciarraioch

Unsurprisingly, Labour's internal market amendment is defeated, 240-322. EEA amendment up next, but the customs union votes promise to be the closest of the evening.

An Ciarraioch

EEA rejected, 327-126.

An Ciarraioch

75 Labour rebels:

https://mobile.twitter.com/labourwhips/status/1006975701457817600

Lords customs union amendment up next.

An Ciarraioch

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

75 Labour rebels:

https://mobile.twitter.com/labourwhips/status/1006975701457817600

Lords customs union amendment up next.

Rejected 325-298

J Mysterio

Hory shet.

Corbyn suffers major Brexit rebellion as five frontbenchers resign

Dozens of backbenchers defy orders to abstain on a Lords amendment to the EU (Withdrawal) Bill

"Jeremy Corbyn has suffered his biggest Brexit rebellion in the Commons as nearly 90 backbenchers defied his orders and five junior frontbenchers resigned from their roles.

It follows the Labour leader’s decision to instruct his MPs to abstain on a Lords amendment to the EU (Withdrawal) Bill that would have kept Britain in the European Economic Area (EEA) after Britain’s withdrawal from the EU."

It's like they are having a family argument over there in Britain, but everyone is watching. It's unseemly and embarassing.

These are the arguments and debates they needed to have pre-Article 50, the absolute numpties.

J Mysterio

As previously noted, this really seems to be the win of the last few days.

MPs win bid to enshrine Theresa May's pledge against 'checks and controls' on Irish border after Brexit

Northern Ireland border has proved to be a major stumbling block in Brexit talks amid warnings that infrastructure could lead to a return to violence

Capt'n Midnight

Meanwhile

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-44462829

Sections of UK industry face extinction unless the UK stays in the EU customs union, the president of the CBI has said.
...
"We have a negotiation within the UK government that's gone on for nearly three years. We still haven't got clarity about the future direction, about where we're heading, what will the future relationship with Europe be, at a level of detail that matters for investment."

An Ciarraioch

And even the Charter of Fundamental Rights is dismissed, by a majority of 20.

Nody

And Hard Brexit here we come; this was one of the last chances to actually for Labour to make a difference and Corbyn flopped around as badly as May on the topic.

FrancieBrady

Dymo wrote: »

But they can still bring down the current government, if that wasn't the case it would have been sorted months ago.

They have one bullet in the barrel. If they are not needed in the next transfer of power they are toast.

briany

J Mysterio wrote: »

As previously noted, this really seems to be the win of the last few days.

MPs win bid to enshrine Theresa May's pledge against 'checks and controls' on Irish border after Brexit

Northern Ireland border has proved to be a major stumbling block in Brexit talks amid warnings that infrastructure could lead to a return to violence

Wait, wait, wait....They've defeated amendments on the EEA and CU, but supported May's promise of no checks or controls on the border?

Can anyone frame these three decisions in terms of me going up north for a shopping trip to Newry in 2020?

PeadarCo

briany wrote:

Wait, wait, wait....They've defeated amendments on the EEA and CU, but supported May's promise of no checks or controls on the border?

It basically says the UK parliament are still clueless about what avoiding a hard border entails. To avoid a hard border in Northern Ireland at least needs to stay in both the common market and customs Union. I half understand a cabinet minister, but that Parliament as a whole passes motions like this makes me genuinely fearful. I would question would any UK pm be able to get an EU deal parliament in any form if they can pass such contradictory motions.

BonnieSituation

It's all too little too late from Labour. Even from the standpoint of MPs rebelling like they did this evening as it will bring exactly no benefit to anyone.

We've had 2 years since the vote and they've done exactly nothing. I know the why and wherefore when it comes to Jezza but you'd think he'd at least try and come up with something that doesn't make him and the party look as useless as they are.

I remember being at Glastonbury last year watching all around me scream "Woah Jeremy Corbyn..." And I realised then that this whole process was gonna be a waste of time for everyone because simply put even the British youth don't seem to get his politics and what it means for their futures.

The cowardice shown by the remainer Tories to trust May yesterday was another disgusting and vile act. Watch as she reneges on that as well.

I've said it before but it's remarkable that the "out of touch" and "unelected" Lords are the ones keeping whatever sanity is left to the forefront of this "process".

On a selfish Irish nationalist note, if this whole process brings reunification nearer and Scottish exit from the UK then I am all for it. Because quite simply they're not gonna do anything positive between now and October and it would be nice to wallow in some smug in the future.

An Ciarraioch

BonnieSituation wrote: »

It's all too little too late from Labour. Even from the standpoint of MPs rebelling like they did this evening as it will bring exactly no benefit to anyone.

We've had 2 years since the vote and they've done exactly nothing. I know the why and wherefore when it comes to Jezza but you'd think he'd at least try and come up with something that doesn't make him and the party look as useless as they are.

I remember being at Glastonbury last year watching all around me scream "Woah Jeremy Corbyn..." And I realised then that this whole process was gonna be a waste of time for everyone because simply put even the British youth don't seem to get his politics and what it means for their futures.

The cowardice shown by the remainer Tories to trust May yesterday was another disgusting and vile act. Watch as she reneges on that as well.

I've said it before but it's remarkable that the "out of touch" and "unelected" Lords are the ones keeping whatever sanity is left to the forefront of this "process".

On a selfish Irish nationalist note, if this whole process brings reunification nearer and Scottish exit from the UK then I am all for it. Because quite simply they're not gonna do anything positive between now and October and it would be nice to wallow in some smug in the future.

Except, of course, for the West-East trade barriers, and consequent snarl-ups at Holyhead, even with Celine in service.

Capt'n Midnight

FrancieBrady wrote: »

They have one bullet in the barrel. If they are not needed in the next transfer of power they are toast.

It's a Mexican standoff, in the Mutually Assured Destruction sense.

Once it's triggered the DUP won't have any power. Especially now that Stormont is on hold.


Part of the calculation is that Labour will never get votes from the DUP or SF.
Or now that SF is "under new management" so to speak would they show up for a vote to break the Union ? A move that would help balance the books , remove the DUP voting against Labour, and sort out the Irish problem forever.


The landscape is so different from before Brexit.

There's a Unionist in the Senate these days.

The south now has gay marriage, abortion and rising house prices. NI is now the poor cousin.

FF are making noises about running up North with the SDLP. Would Dev's party stand in Westminster ?


A Fine Gael MEP has indicated he would support Ireland’s two extra seats in the European Parliament going to Northern Ireland after Brexit.

The number of voters that belong to neither tribe is growing. People born abroad. The DUP has little if anything to offer to voters who don't belong to the unionist tradition.

The DUP demographic is shrinking due to age and loss of faith.

Time was the Unionists could take out Ballylumford and cripple the economy but thanks to the all island single market for electricity it's got to a position where even that isn't the nuclear option it once was.
http://www.sem-o.com/Pages/default.aspx

RHI hasn't gone away either. The DUP just isn't winning hearts and minds.

When Stormont comes back will the DUP be able to use the Petition Of Concern beyond the next election ?



It's not end days yet, or even close, it's way too early for a border poll but the writing is on the wall. Things aren't getting better and there's a lot of payback and unfinished business waiting in the wings.


An analagy would be the Catholic Church. Numbers are falling, there's been scandals. But half a million people will show up in the Phoenix Park on August 28th.

Rjd2

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

And Chuka Umunna, on a similar theme:

https://mobile.twitter.com/ChukaUmunna/status/1006900129427648514

Wasting his time in that party. He gets massacred regularly by the Corbyn disciples for pretty much suggesting a soft brexit which would be to the liking of the majority of Labour supporters.

I am doubtful there will ever be a big third party, but if there was, he should definitely have a prominent role in it.

BonnieSituation

Rjd2 wrote: »

Wasting his time in that party. He gets massacred regularly by the Corbyn disciples for pretty much suggesting a soft brexit which would be to the liking of the majority of Labour supporters.

I am doubtful there will ever be a big third party, but if there was, he should definitely have a prominent role in it.

FPTP sees to that.

Peregrinus

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Would Dev's party stand in Westminster ?

Trivial fact of the week. Eamon de Valera was a member of the Westminster Parliament (for East Clare) from 1917 to 1922. Of course, he didn't take his seat.

Less well-known is the fact that he was a member of the Parliament of Northern Ireland from 1921 to 1929 (for County Down) and from 1933 to 1938 (for South Down). Again, he didn't take his seat. As MP for South Down, his party label was Fianna Fáil, so FF has at least some record of contesting elections in NI.

Harika

Well well, so Mr Rees-Mogg's company is warning of Brexit's uncertainty.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/financial-services/irish-investment-vehicle-linked-to-hardline-brexiteer-rees-mogg-warns-of-brexit-risks-1.3529280

“During, and possibly after, this period there is likely to be considerable uncertainty as to the position of the UK and the arrangements which will apply to its relationships with the EU,” the fund says.

“As [SCM is] based in the UK and a fund’s investments may be located in the UK or the EU, a fund may as a result be affected by the events described above.”

The Icav specifically warns that a hard Brexit “may increase costs or make it more difficult for the Icav to pursue its objectives”.

https://twitter.com/Jacob_Rees_Mogg/status/1003256133010763776

Hello Mr. Pinocchio

J Mysterio

How can that rag get away with such blatant lies?

Seth Brundle

J Mysterio wrote: »

How can that rag get away with such blatant lies?

Surprising given how intelligent their readers are

J Mysterio

J Mysterio wrote: »

How can that rag get away with such blatant lies?

The Sun

There's an extra comma in there at the bottom.

Professor Moriarty

Deleted User wrote: »

There's an extra comma in there at the bottom.

Where?

Infini

J Mysterio wrote: »

How can that rag get away with such blatant lies?

Seriously that's just pandering to their supporters ego and nothing else. They want to believe all is well right until they crash into a wall.

WomanSkirtFan8

Infini wrote: »

Seriously that's just pandering to their supporters ego and nothing else. They want to believe all is well right until they crash into a wall.

Thats not suprising when you bear in mind the fact that their whole existence and premise is entirely based on sensationalism and downright lies.:rolleyes:

demfad

Interesting article.
EU Contingency for private sector hard Brexit:

Phase 1: advise private sector to take it into account.
Phase 2: Change the actual EU laws and regulations to protect these companies.

https://twitter.com/FT/status/1007156129594593280

Dymo

Infini wrote: »

Seriously that's just pandering to their supporters ego and nothing else. They want to believe all is well right until they crash into a wall.

I hope they keep believe that, at this stage I'm tired of looking at Brexiters talking as if everything is perfect.

I wish it was March 29th today and then we can really say what's happening.

Zubeneschamali

demfad wrote: »

Interesting article.
EU Contingency for private sector hard Brexit:

Phase 1: advise private sector to take it into account.
Phase 2: Change the actual EU laws and regulations to protect these companies.

To protect these companies from the negative effects of Brexit. In this case, for EU manufacturers whose type approval came via the UK, the UK leaves, allow them to transfer it to an approval agency in the EU.

Why on earth would the EU not do that? Did they think the EU would let Skodas type approval lapse and force them to stop selling cars in the EU because the UK leaves?

The fact that the FT think this is even faintly newsworthy is laughable.

trellheim

Rolls Royce ( the jet engine lot ) announce 4600 job losses ( see https://www.derbytelegraph.co.uk/news/derby-news/what-happened-derby-mps-challenged-1675703) .

J Mysterio

trellheim wrote: »

Rolls Royce ( the jet engine lot ) announce 4600 job losses ( see https://www.derbytelegraph.co.uk/news/derby-news/what-happened-derby-mps-challenged-1675703) .

Wow

demfad

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

To protect these companies from the negative effects of Brexit. In this case, for EU manufacturers whose type approval came via the UK, the UK leaves, allow them to transfer it to an approval agency in the EU.

Why on earth would the EU not do that? Did they think the EU would let Skodas type approval lapse and force them to stop selling cars in the EU because the UK leaves?

The fact that the FT think this is even faintly newsworthy is laughable.

No its not. This is only necessary in a hard Brexit and would not be necessary under a proposed transition arrangement. It depends on what Brexit is likley to mean. The only hard Brexit available now is the type that will cause meltdown in the UK: Dover port to close in a day etc.

WomanSkirtFan8

trellheim wrote: »

Rolls Royce ( the jet engine lot ) announce 4600 job losses ( see https://www.derbytelegraph.co.uk/news/derby-news/what-happened-derby-mps-challenged-1675703) .

Ouch! That's really going to hurt!:cool:

Zubeneschamali

demfad wrote: »

No its not. This is only necessary in a hard Brexit and would not be necessary under a proposed transition arrangement. It depends on what Brexit is likley to mean.

To keep the UKs type approval applying across the EU would require the UK to stay in the Single Market which the UK government have stated many, many times they absolutely will not do.

If the EU are not planning for what the UK government say Brexit will look like, the EU is not doing its job.

Red_Wake

He said: "When I left school in 1972, there were 35,000 workers at Rolls-Royce but now there are 12,000 and after this there will be even less.

"You talk of successful collaboration between Rolls-Royce and the Government but talk is cheap why not put workers on the boards of companies to represent the workforce? This is an example of the failure of shareholder capitalism."

Is he really blaming capitalism without apportioning anything to Brexit? Certainly reads that way.

Zubeneschamali

Red_Wake wrote: »

Is he really blaming capitalism without apportioning anything to Brexit? Certainly reads that way.

It would be the same in any heavy industry in the UK (or Germany) 1972 vs. 2018. Automation, just-in-time parts sourcing - manufacturing no longer employs masses of spanner-wielding lads in boiler suits.

Red_Wake

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Red_Wake wrote: »

Is he really blaming capitalism without apportioning anything to Brexit? Certainly reads that way.

It would be the same in any heavy industry in the UK (or Germany) 1972 vs. 2018. Automation, just-in-time parts sourcing - manufacturing no longer employs masses of spanner-wielding lads in boiler suits.

I'm referring to the just announced 4,600 job losses.

Admittedly, I made a balls of the quote.

Professor Moriarty

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

It would be the same in any heavy industry in the UK (or Germany) 1972 vs. 2018. Automation, just-in-time parts sourcing - manufacturing no longer employs masses of spanner-wielding lads in boiler suits.

JIT will be taking a bit of a hit.

Professor Moriarty

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Where?

It was a joke.

Without the comma, "Doom? No Britain is booming and it's thanks to Brexit." means there is no Britain that is booming because of Brexit.

trellheim

JIT will be taking a bit of a hit.

The trouble with RR jobs is they can be the most highest skilled ones of all, hi performance jet engines like the Trent keep the A380 and the 787 , A330 and A350 so exactly the kind of jobs that you dont want leaving UK PLC

Nody

Nody wrote: »

I'm well aware of that and you are well aware off that but it is not us at the other side of the table but May and the three stooges. The same team that can't understand why they can't have all the benefits of an EU membership while leaving the EU. Hence in their world and reality they can negotiate until the 29th of March when EU will give in to their deals out of fear of a hard brexit being plucky Brits with a stiff upper lip and great cunning. And that is why I'm saying May will go to the parliament at said date for an approval of some sort even though it is way to late in reality simply because they think that's doable. The later the vote; the less chance of it getting voted down after all and as we know May will do anything at all to avoid being pushed out as PM; if that means sinking UKs economy by a hard brexit then so be it. At least ECJ is not going to stop her this time.

And once again I was sadly proven right in the incompetence of UK politicans.

The prime minister has agreed to the showdown, in February 2019, to avert a threatened revolt by pro-EU Tory rebels after talks today, The Independent has learned.

Full details of the amendment to be tabled to the EU Withdrawal Bill will be published later, ahead of a 5pm deadline for debating it in the House of Lords on Monday.

“Deal or no deal parliament will have a meaningful vote and to be clear there will be no hard #Brexit when the EU Withdrawal Bill is passed.”

So yea; "meaningful" vote in February inc. being able to stop a no deal crash out; exactly as I guessed. Seriously; how can you be this incompetent about something so basic as UK politician? They are paid to know this **** and I as a complete amateur has better understanding of the process than they do.

trellheim

trellheim wrote: »

The trouble with RR jobs is they can be the most highest skilled ones of all, hi performance jet engines like the Trent keep the A380 and the 787 , A330 and A350 so exactly the kind of jobs that you dont want leaving UK PLC

My reading of it is that those jobs will be fine. It's management and back office taking the hit.

mcmoustache

Nody wrote: »

And once again I was sadly proven right in the incompetence of UK politicans.

So yea; "meaningful" vote in February inc. being able to stop a no deal crash out; exactly as I guessed. Seriously; how can you be this incompetent about something so basic as UK politician? They are paid to know this **** and I as a complete amateur has better understanding of the process than they do.

This is the part that baffles me about the whole thing. Whether or not you agree with the positions of British politicians, they've tended to at least have some idea of what they're supposed to be doing. Even if they didn't know what they were doing, they at least listened to advisers and civil servants who did know.

This lot don't seem to know what they're doing at all. Did all the experts leave en masse? Are the experts still there but the leadership can't repeat to the public what they say? Does the leadership actually believe what they come out with?

I really don't understand this at all. They can't be this ignorant, can they?

Bit cynical

Red_Wake wrote: »

He said: "When I left school in 1972, there were 35,000 workers at Rolls-Royce but now there are 12,000 and after this there will be even less.


Is he really blaming capitalism without apportioning anything to Brexit? Certainly reads that way.

Something I've suggested here before is that as time goes on, Brexit itself will feature less and less when discussing the causal factors of economic events. Brexit becomes an accepted and more or less irreversible historic fact and therefore not really of interest.

Of course on forums such as this, people will continue to attribute negative events to brexit, but outside of this context, those attributions will seem repetitive and boring even among those who voted remain.

In some respects, those who want the UK to rejoin the EU would do better to shut up for a period of time rather than go on about it. Going on about it only maintains defensiveness and staunchness in the minds of the Brexit supporters and prevents the case for (re)joining the EU being looked at freshly.

flutered

WomanSkirtFan8 wrote: »

Ouch! That's really going to hurt!:cool:

when all similar happenings are added up, there is already much hurt to the uk tresuary, add on a few more especially if the service sector goes tits up they will be in huge financial trouble