Brexit discussion thread III

EdgeCase

Leroy42 wrote: »

^^^This always gets me.

How long is short-term and what sort of pain are they talking about?
.....

Who covers the cost of relocating the sales team from Lyon to Jakarta? Do they need offices there or simply a call centre in the UK?

There is lots of talk about the high end Brexit negotiation stuff, but I have seen nothing in terms of the practicable requirements of such a fundamental change.

It is said, though not always true, that it is 5 times more expensive to acquire than retain customers. Yet the UK are doing this across the board.

There's also this rather arrogant assumption that they offer some kind of amazingly competitive products or services and that they can suddenly just rock up to already well-established economies and take a significant chunk of the market.

This is based on nothing but hot air and arrogance. It's certainly not based on market research or proper analysis.

In a trade deal with a highly developed services market like the US for example, the whole thing could flow the other way and US companies could end up wiping out UK competitors based on their scale and abilities.

Also, what gives them idea that somewhere like China even wants their services? China already has huge financial services centres and is unlikely to want London trying to siphon off money beyond Chinese control.

Where would they find all this business in Canada or Australia? They can't act as a bridge into the EU for those countries, so they'll only be offering them the UK domestic market and all of those countries already have very well developed and established markets for pretty much everything and would have highly established companies dominating them and doing quite well.

On top of that the UK's expecting totally open free trade deals in countries where its industries would be directly competing. The EU allows this as it's got an ideological agenda of creating a pan European single market and openly encourages UK and companies from all over the EU to take advantage of that, seeing them as part of the home market. Nation states don't think like that. If you're a UK bank trying to take business from a US, Canadian or Australian bank, their respective governments will likely work in favour of their local employers and suppliers, not try to giver the UK a free lunch.

Also, as I mentioned before, you've the Trump factor. He is pushing an "America First" agenda and hates trade deals. If they get a deal with the US, it's very likely to be one sided, particularly if he notices that there's actually a large services trade surplus in favour of the UK which could need to be rebalanced.

Then you've all the deeply integrated supply chains that take advantage of the European single market and have taken it for granted to grow businesses in Britain. Those could all end up fractured and turned upside down. If you've a few % of extra costs on many businesses, margins can be low enough that they will go under very quickly.

They're just turning a huge % of the UK economy upside-down and inside out and have no concept of how risky what they're doing is.

It's like turning up at Dragons Den without a business plan and a flashy brand.

You can't eat hype!

Capt'n Midnight

Sam Russell wrote: »

In the last 70 years, the GBP has fallen from US$4 to US$1.40 today - that is a fall of 3.5 times or it has fallen to 28.5% of its value against the US Dollar over that time. It has fallen much further against the German currency since 1966.

Mind you, they do have control of their own currency, so they can devalue it further if they wish. They devalued in 1931, 1949, and 1967, and floated in 1971.

We shall see.

BTW
Roughly half of that drop was the 1949 devaluation which was forced on the UK by the USA because of the Anglo-American loan.

Sam Russell

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

BTW
Roughly half of that drop was the 1949 devaluation which was forced on the UK by the USA because of the Anglo-American loan.

Yes, but not the others. Also, the dollar has suffered as well. GB£10,000 converted to Deutsche Marks in 1966 would be worth €65,000 today. In 1966, £1 was worth 13 DM.

The USA has been running unsustainable deficits for decades.

Capt'n Midnight

This will allow better links to the continent, whatever stranglehold the brexiteers imagine they have on us is being eroded step by step.
Port of Cork €80M Container Terminal Development In Ringaskiddy Underway

The Cork Container Terminal will initially offer a 360 metre quay with 13 metre depth alongside and will enable larger ships to berth in Ringaskiddy. The development also includes the construction of a 13.5 hectare terminal and associated buildings as well as two ship to shore gantry cranes and container handling equipment.

UK port suggesting unacompanied tucks instead of warehouses. Either way there will be delays, but Dover is the bottleneck.
https://afloat.ie/port-news/port-and-shipping-news/item/39588-uk-needs-channel-trade-reality-check-looks-to-irish-sea-solutions

Peel Ports [a UK ports group incl. Liverpool] is calling on cargo owners, hauliers and others to look at two potential solutions to inevitable congestion at Dover, learning lessons from a model commonly used for Irish Sea freight and using capacity at ports across the country.
...
Currently, more than 75% of all RoRo freight from ports on the near continent passes through the Dover Straits. The market is around 4 million units, of which 99% is transported by conventional means of a lorry driver with a cab and trailer.

This is in contrast to Irish Sea freight, where more than 50% of the cargo is only the trailers. In this model, goods are held as contingency stock at the port of entry, with trailers not leaving the port until up to 48 hours after their arrival in some circumstances. Such an approach would provide more time for border checks to take place without the pressure of them needing to be completed during a short sea crossing or at a congested border point.

White Paper
https://www.peelports.com/media/3463/brexit-unlocked.pdf

It is far easier for a ferry operator to cope with a growing market by putting on slightly larger ships on the
Dover-Calais route than attempting to start a new service. Yet now, for cargo owners, the risk of doing nothing is
perhaps higher than the risk of a contingency plan addressing potential future threats

I've just woken up, so pardon the silly question, but can customs checks be done on ferries in transit, and ships stay offshore until they're done?

Basically no added infrastructure, just extra manpower to make it as fast as it was before.

Peregrinus

Deleted User wrote: »

I've just woken up, so pardon the silly question, but can customs checks be done on ferries in transit, and ships stay offshore until they're done?

Basically no added infrastructure, just extra manpower to make it as fast as it was before.

In principle, yes. In practice, it may depend on the nature of the check, and the situation on the vessel. Typically, on a container ship, containers are stacked up like lego blocs; you only have access to the ones on the outside of the stack, if even them.

Customs formalities are mostly dealt with during transhipment; while goods are being transferred from land transport (trucks, trains) to sea transport (ships) or vice versa at the other end. Depending on the nature and extent of the check, this may delay transshipment, hence the problem. There is some scope for alleviating this with on-board checks, but it's limited.

prinzeugen

I worked with a courier, delivering documents to ships. They check the cargo!

I stopped posting here as it has became an echo chamber..

Still is.

Peregrinus

Peregrinus wrote: »

In principle, yes. In practice, it may depend on the nature of the check, and the situation on the vessel. Typically, on a container ship, containers are stacked up like lego blocs; you only have access to the ones on the outside of the stack, if even them.

Customs formalities are mostly dealt with during transhipment; while goods are being transferred from land transport (trucks, trains) to sea transport (ships) or vice versa at the other end. Depending on the nature and extent of the check, this may delay transshipment, hence the problem. There is some scope for alleviating this with on-board checks, but it's limited.

Fair enough. I hadn't really considered cargo ships between France and England. Thought it was mostly a drive on drive off setup.

Peregrinus

Deleted User wrote: »

Fair enough. I hadn't really considered cargo ships between France and England. Thought it was mostly a drive on drive off setup.

There is a lot of ro-ro traffic but, even there, the setup on the ferries is not designed with access to cargo during the ferry passage in mind. Clearance around the vehicles won't allow container doors to be opened. You'd have to redesign the interiors (and reduce the capacity of the ferries) for this to happen.

Processing of paperwork can happen while the voyage is underway (and did, in pre-Single Market days). This mostly happens on shore.

CelticRambler

Don't forget all the freight that currently crosses under the Channel. Those trucks travel on open-sided wagons so there's no way anyone would be opening/checking them en route, even if you could recruit and train enough new inspectors to check 30 trucks in 30 minutes. Eurotunnel Freight is likely to be particularly hard-hit, as they've spent years (and millions) developing their infrastructure and protocols to the stage where "trusted drivers" don't even have to stop for ID checks. You can do that for people (not much different to IDS's "everyone has a mobile phone" border control solution) but it's of no use for tracking the contents of vehicles. Eurotunnel still needs to scan (moving!) trucks for unauthorised human cargo.

First Up

prinzeugen wrote: »

I worked with a courier, delivering documents to ships. They check the cargo!

I stopped posting here as it has became an echo chamber..

Still is.

You are as free and as welcome as anyone else to give us your perspective.

Peregrinus

prinzeugen wrote: »

I worked with a courier, delivering documents to ships. They check the cargo!

Really? Tell us more! What checks are imposed, and by whom?

prinzeugen wrote: »

I stopped posting here as it has became an echo chamber..

Still is.

You mean, nobody agrees with you?

flatty

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

This will allow better links to the continent, whatever stranglehold the brexiteers imagine they have on us is being eroded step by step.
Port of Cork €80M Container Terminal Development In Ringaskiddy Underway

The Cork Container Terminal will initially offer a 360 metre quay with 13 metre depth alongside and will enable larger ships to berth in Ringaskiddy. The development also includes the construction of a 13.5 hectare terminal and associated buildings as well as two ship to shore gantry cranes and container handling equipment.

UK port suggesting unacompanied tucks instead of warehouses. Either way there will be delays, but Dover is the bottleneck.
https://afloat.ie/port-news/port-and-shipping-news/item/39588-uk-needs-channel-trade-reality-check-looks-to-irish-sea-solutions

Peel Ports [a UK ports group incl. Liverpool] is calling on cargo owners, hauliers and others to look at two potential solutions to inevitable congestion at Dover, learning lessons from a model commonly used for Irish Sea freight and using capacity at ports across the country.
...
Currently, more than 75% of all RoRo freight from ports on the near continent passes through the Dover Straits. The market is around 4 million units, of which 99% is transported by conventional means of a lorry driver with a cab and trailer.

This is in contrast to Irish Sea freight, where more than 50% of the cargo is only the trailers. In this model, goods are held as contingency stock at the port of entry, with trailers not leaving the port until up to 48 hours after their arrival in some circumstances. Such an approach would provide more time for border checks to take place without the pressure of them needing to be completed during a short sea crossing or at a congested border point.

White Paper
https://www.peelports.com/media/3463/brexit-unlocked.pdf

It is far easier for a ferry operator to cope with a growing market by putting on slightly larger ships on the
Dover-Calais route than attempting to start a new service. Yet now, for cargo owners, the risk of doing nothing is
perhaps higher than the risk of a contingency plan addressing potential future threats

As a slightly ironic aside, the owner of peel holdings, though by all accounts a very nice man, lives in the Isle of man for tax reasons.

J Mysterio

Interesting poll results

Two out of three British voters who backed Brexit would prefer to see a hard border in Ireland than for Britain to remain in the EU customs union, according to a new poll.

Only one in three British voters said they could not accept a different status for Northern Ireland after Brexit and six out of 10 Leave voters said that leaving the EU was more important than keeping the United Kingdom together.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/uk/leave-voters-prefer-hard-border-to-staying-in-customs-union-poll-1.3535851?mode=amp

Akrasia

J Mysterio wrote: »

Interesting poll results

Two out of three British voters who backed Brexit would prefer to see a hard border in Ireland than for Britain to remain in the EU customs union, according to a new poll.

Only one in three British voters said they could not accept a different status for Northern Ireland after Brexit and six out of 10 Leave voters said that leaving the EU was more important than keeping the United Kingdom together.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/uk/leave-voters-prefer-hard-border-to-staying-in-customs-union-poll-1.3535851?mode=amp

That's pretty depressing, but it also means that if there was another referendum, that voters would reject a hard brexit given that one would assume that the vast majority of remain voters would not agree to a hard border or the breakup of the UK.

Zubeneschamali

trellheim wrote: »

Do you honestly believe the EU will hold it up if Ireland has a problem with <whatever gets agreed in the next few weeks > ?

Yes.

And if the worst comes to the worst and the EU tries throwing us under the Brexit bus, Ireland can veto the deal by ourselves without the EU.

Leroy42

^^ and therein lies the rub of the whole thing and exposes the UK's strategy for the baseless attempt that it is.

They have attempted to divide and conquer when what they needed was consensus. They needed to sell their vision of whatever plan they had to the 27, primarily to Ireland. What they have done is tried to lay down red lines and threats.

So Ireland is indeed faced with a decision. Side with the EU which have throughout the process attempted to understand our position and look for ways to minimise the effects to us, or side with the UK which has shown total disregard and sometimes open hostility to our concerns.

CelticRambler

Akrasia wrote: »

That's pretty depressing, but it also means that if there was another referendum, that voters would reject a hard brexit given that one would assume that the vast majority of remain voters would not agree to a hard border or the breakup of the UK.

I don't read it as depressing; more like a confirmation of what's been repeatedly discussed on this thread - that the media allow the likes of JRM, IDS, NF & BJ to spout all kinds of nonsense in respect the NI-EU(RoI) border, without any challenge as to the implications of whatever arrangements are put in place, or not.



It would be interesting to see the geographical breakdown of the survey, but again, I think we can reasonably assume that the majority of participants don't really understand what or where Northern Ireland is, or what relevance it has to England-GB.


From the IT article, what I find most striking is this:

64 per cent said Northern Ireland was on the wrong track, compared to 25 per cent who thought it was on the right track. But 55 per cent of those in Northern Ireland said the Republic was on the right track

Never mind the hypothetical "would you vote for reunification if there was a poll tomorrow?" - if that difference in sentiment continues for more than a couple of years post Brexit, then a border poll (and probably reunification) will be almost inevitable.

Zubeneschamali

CelticRambler wrote: »

Never mind the hypothetical "would you vote for reunification if there was a poll tomorrow?" - if that difference in sentiment continues for more than a couple of years post Brexit, then a border poll (and probably reunification) will be almost inevitable.

And if Brexit is a shambles with all sorts of horrible economic effects in the UK while the Republic hums along inside the EU, that sentiment will be reinforced every year.

J Mysterio

J Mysterio wrote: »

Only one in three British voters said they could not accept a different status for Northern Ireland after Brexit and six out of 10 Leave voters said that leaving the EU was more important than keeping the United Kingdom together.

Hmm. That must make for very uncomfortable reading for Arlene Foster and the DUP. 'We want to be treated the same as the rest of the UK.' Meh. The average leave voter in, say, Essex couldn't care less about NI.

Peregrinus

Deleted User wrote: »

Hmm. That must make for very uncomfortable reading for Arlene Foster and the DUP. 'We want to be treated the same as the rest of the UK.' Meh. The average leave voter in, say, Essex couldn't care less about NI.

Uncomfortable, perhaps, but it won't come as a surprise to her. The reason hardline unionists radiate such manifest insecurity is because they know they are heavily invested in a relationship with people who are not that into them.

Peregrinus

Peregrinus wrote: »

Uncomfortable, perhaps, but it won't come as a surprise to her. The reason hardline unionists radiate such manifest insecurity is because they know they are heavily invested in a relationship with people who are not that into them.

It's ironic really, but the more Foster bangs the Brexit drum, the more she destabilises the Union itself. The relationships between North/South plus Ireland & Britain appeared to reach an acceptable equilibrium to most people as it developed within the greater umbrella of the EU. Brexit really is an unwelcome intrusion re all this.

Professor Moriarty

Peregrinus wrote: »

Uncomfortable, perhaps, but it won't come as a surprise to her. The reason hardline unionists radiate such manifest insecurity is because they know they are heavily invested in a relationship with people who are not that into them.

That relationship has become very strained and this poll demonstrates the growing estrangement. Pretty soon, I reckon Arelene can expect a text from Theresa along the lines of "It's not me, it's you."

Havockk

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

That relationship has become very strained and this poll demonstrates the growing estrangement. Pretty soon, I reckon Arelene can expect a text from Theresa along the lines of "It's not me, it's you."

Curse their sudden but inevitable betrayal!!!

Really though, there is going to come a point when May has absolutely nothing to lose, then what? And what exactly has the DUP achieved in this 'kingmaking' role? Very little truth be told, a little cash that has only about half appeared and a disenfranchised angry electorate.

Professor Moriarty

Havockk wrote: »

Curse their sudden but inevitable betrayal!!!

Really though, there is going to come a point when May has absolutely nothing to lose, then what? And what exactly has the DUP achieved in this 'kingmaking' role? Very little truth be told, a little cash that has only about half appeared and a disenfranchised angry electorate.

Plus they'll have shot their bolt with The Conservative and Unionist Party. The Tories won't forget how they hamstrung and humiliated their PM. They could turn to Corbyn I suppose...

Water John

The rerun of the Dominic Grieve vote next week should be interesting. Fool me once etc. I can see the Govn't loose this one.

Panrich

Well this poll is depressing for all of us who want to avoid a hard border The amount of support for a hard Brexit in the UK is astounding to me.

https://lordashcroftpolls.com/2018/06/brexit-the-border-and-the-union/

Looking at the Tory voters views give an insight into the policy direction and trajectory that they are on but it's an appalling vista for this country.

Zubeneschamali

Panrich wrote: »

it's an appalling vista for this country.

Well, I wouldn't go that far. A hard border along with a hard Brexit will be tough short term, but then a United Ireland could kill SF off in a few years, so there's a silver lining.

flutered

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Well, I wouldn't go that far. A hard border along with a hard Brexit will be tough short term, but then a United Ireland could kill SF off in a few years, so there's a silver lining.

i recon the sf are here to stay, they look as if the are pushing ff for second spot

J Mysterio

Brexit: EU leaders set to warn Theresa May over talks and step up preparations for ‘no deal', leaked documents reveal

Leak:

1) In light of the state of play presented by the Union negotiator, the European Council welcomes the further progress made on parts of the legal text of the Withdrawal Agreement. 2) The European Council expresses its concern that no substantial progress has yet been achieved on agreeing a backstop solution for Ireland/Northern Ireland. It recalls the commitments undertaken by the UK in this respect in December 2017 and March 2018, and insists on the need for intensified efforts so that the Withdrawal Agreement, including its provisions on transition, can be concluded as soon as possible in order to come into effect on the date of withdrawal. It recalls that negotiations can only progress as long as all commitments undertaken so far are respected in full. 3) Work must also be accelerated with a view to preparing a political declaration on the framework for the future relationship. This requires further clarity from the UK as regards its position on the future relationship. The European Council reconfirms its position set out in the guidelines March 2018. 4) The European Council renews its call upon Member States and all stakeholders to step up their work on preparedness at all levels for all outcomes.

BonnieSituation

J Mysterio wrote: »

Brexit: EU leaders set to warn Theresa May over talks and step up preparations for ‘no deal', leaked documents reveal

Leak:

1) In light of the state of play presented by the Union negotiator, the European Council welcomes the further progress made on parts of the legal text of the Withdrawal Agreement. 2) The European Council expresses its concern that no substantial progress has yet been achieved on agreeing a backstop solution for Ireland/Northern Ireland. It recalls the commitments undertaken by the UK in this respect in December 2017 and March 2018, and insists on the need for intensified efforts so that the Withdrawal Agreement, including its provisions on transition, can be concluded as soon as possible in order to come into effect on the date of withdrawal. It recalls that negotiations can only progress as long as all commitments undertaken so far are respected in full. 3) Work must also be accelerated with a view to preparing a political declaration on the framework for the future relationship. This requires further clarity from the UK as regards its position on the future relationship. The European Council reconfirms its position set out in the guidelines March 2018. 4) The European Council renews its call upon Member States and all stakeholders to step up their work on preparedness at all levels for all outcomes.

And watch how this is turned around as the Europe telling them what to do.

catrionanic

J Mysterio wrote: »

2) The European Council expresses its concern that no substantial progress has yet been achieved on agreeing a backstop solution for Ireland/Northern Ireland. It recalls the commitments undertaken by the UK in this respect in December 2017 and March 2018, and insists on the need for intensified efforts so that the Withdrawal Agreement, including its provisions on transition, can be concluded as soon as possible in order to come into effect on the date of withdrawal. It recalls that negotiations can only progress as long as all commitments undertaken so far are respected in full.

It certainly doesn’t sound like they’re gearing up to throw Ireland under any Brexit buses.

EdgeCase

catrionanic wrote: »

It certainly doesn’t sound like they’re gearing up to throw Ireland under any Brexit buses.

They're not. That's largely Tory fantasy stuff.

Capt'n Midnight

So the UK are ditching the ECJ but want to keep European Arrest Warrant ?

No surprises here really.

His words are not likely to go down well with the UK's Brexit Secretary David Davis, who earlier this month singled the European Arrest Warrant out as one of the cornerstones of post-Brexit security co-operation with the EU.
...
Earlier this year the chief constable of the Police Service of Northern Ireland said non-participation in the scheme was "probably the biggest practical vulnerability" facing law enforcement in Northern Ireland post-Brexit.

Anthracite

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

So the UK are ditching the ECJ but want to keep European Arrest Warrant ?

No surprises here really.

UK: "We'd like to put the liberty of EU citizens in jeopardy without any accountability."
EU: "Uh no."

Capt'n Midnight

Labour donor in trouble setting up pro-Brexit groups in breach of his broadcasting licence.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-44536391

trellheim

Well this poll is depressing for all of us who want to avoid a hard border

Thats an ashcroft poll he's one of the hardest brexiters out there, its a fox news type thing.

As for the leaked EU council docs above thats a very watertight ship normally, I suspect this is being done in advance ( and it rarely happens) . I would indeed be considering that as a warning to get your house in order.

Capt'n Midnight

Go is one of the oldest boardgames.

On a 19 x 19 board the number of legal positions is

2081681993819799846994786333448627702865224538845305484256394
5682092741961273801537852564845169851964390725991601562812854
6089888314427129715319317557736620397247064840935

WomanSkirtFan8

"six out of 10 Leave voters said that leaving the EU was more important than keeping the United Kingdom together."
I think that statement says it all really. They'd rather leave the EU even if it means that the UK breaks up in the process. Yep, that shows where their loyalties lie.

Leonard Hofstadter

I always got that feeling when I lived there. We were all considered to be 'Irish' over there anyway regardless of which side of the border we were from.

It's kind of like how we are all supposed to want a United Ireland tomorrow but secretly the majority of us like the theory of it but in reality we're quite happy for it to be (and remain) Britain's problem, over there officially NI is 'as British as Finchley' (to use Mrs Thatcher's words) but in reality they couldn't care less, and the poll shows this.

They would be quite happy for NI to be treated separately to the rest of the UK in order to achieve the Brexit they want, but the DUP won't allow it (despite bring perfectly content to be different to the UK when it suits them e.g. equal marriage, abortion etc).

Peregrinus

Deleted User wrote: »

It's ironic really, but the more Foster bangs the Brexit drum, the more she destabilises the Union itself. The relationships between North/South plus Ireland & Britain appeared to reach an acceptable equilibrium to most people as it developed within the greater umbrella of the EU. Brexit really is an unwelcome intrusion re all this.

Yes. The way things were shaping up before Brexit, the long-term demographic trend which will lead to a Catholic majority in NI before much longer was being offset by a growing propensity of Catholics to accept, if not enthusiastically support, NI's place within the Union. That was made possible because the open border and the GFA meant there was little tension between affirming an Irish identity and accepting the status quo.

Hard Brexit, and a hard border, will hole this below the waterline. If accepting NI's place within the UK means accepting a hard border in Ireland, Catholics are required to make a choice which it is very much in Arlene Foster's interest that they should not be required to make. The DUP should be a tireless advocate for the softest of soft Brexits.

Thomas_IV

Peregrinus wrote: »

Yes. The way things were shaping up before Brexit, the long-term demographic trend which will lead to a Catholic majority in NI before much longer was being offset by a growing propensity of Catholics to accept, if not enthusiastically support, NI's place within the Union. That was made possible because the open border and the GFA meant there was little tension between affirming an Irish identity and accepting the status quo.

Hard Brexit, and a hard border, will hole this below the waterline. If accepting NI's place within the UK means accepting a hard border in Ireland, Catholics are required to make a choice which it is very much in Arlene Foster's interest that they should not be required to make. The DUP should be a tireless advocate for the softest of soft Brexits.

If they were reasonable they would, but as we know them, stupid and stubborn as they are, they push for a hard Brexit for the sake of 'being British' and thus go down with the UK. They don't care about the consequences reality will soon enough punish them with, they just share the same idiocy like the English Tories who are still caught in their 'happy Brexit times ahead bubble' which is the worst illusion ever.

Still, some resistance to a hard Brexit is slowly growing in GB but the UK govt is playing on time and continue in the way they did for the past two years to achieve nothing in the end in order to justify the hard Brexit and afterwards blame the EU for it. They can rely on their ignorant followers and supporters that they will swallow that ly too.

https://www.rte.ie/news/2018/0620/971776-theresa_may_brexit/

Theresa May faces fresh Brexit Showdown

British Prime Minister Theresa May faces a showdown with her pro-EU MPs over parliament's role in the final Brexit deal, which could influence her entire negotiation strategy.

MPs will vote on amendments to the EU (Withdrawal) Bill setting out how much power MPs will have if the government fails to agree a departure deal before Brexit in March 2019.

Leroy42

Is part of the DUP stance based on the view that the UK will cover them in the event of any economic loss? We are looking at it as a terrible idea to stay out of EU from the NI economy, but maybe after such a long time being fed off the British state the DUP simply have the view that Britain will simply cover any shortfall (should it arise).

Peregrinus

Leroy42 wrote: »

Is part of the DUP stance based on the view that the UK will cover them in the event of any economic loss? We are looking at it as a terrible idea to stay out of EU from the NI economy, but maybe after such a long time being fed off the British state the DUP simply have the view that Britain will simply cover any shortfall (should it arise).

SFAIK the DUP have not sought such a commitment, and certainly HMG have not given one.

Plus, it should be noted, Westminster extensively subsidises the government of NI, but most of the economic damage accruing from Brexit will affect individuals and businesses in the form of job losses, lost contracts, reduced profits, lost business, etc, etc. There will be a secondary impact on government finances in the form of lower tax take, higher claims on social services, etc. DUP might hope that UK will increase its subvention to keep the NI government solvent (although I wouldn't assume even that) but nobody can imagine that there will be cash handouts directly to private individuals and businesses to compensate them for Brexit-related costs and losses.

The Nordies will be screwed, economically speaking. The DUP knows this, but reckons it will make them identify more strongly with the UK. Or something.

Thomas_IV

Leroy42 wrote: »

Is part of the DUP stance based on the view that the UK will cover them in the event of any economic loss? We are looking at it as a terrible idea to stay out of EU from the NI economy, but maybe after such a long time being fed off the British state the DUP simply have the view that Britain will simply cover any shortfall (should it arise).

The DUP is rather ignoring the prospect of a growing support for a Scottish IndyRef2 which - by also growing support - has the chance to get a majority for Independence and this would lead to the break up of the Union in the event of a hard Brexit. In due course after that the financial support for NI from Westminster will become a matter to be scrutinised and revisited with a result in cuts for NI.

Sure, I also think that the DUP just reckons the way you described it.

Thomas_IV

Peregrinus wrote: »

SFAIK the DUP have not sought such a commitment, and certainly HMG have not given one.

Plus, it should be noted, Westminster extensively subsidises the government of NI, but most of the economic damage accruing from Brexit will affect individuals and businesses in the form of job losses, lost contracts, reduced profits, lost business, etc, etc. There will be a secondary impact on government finances in the form of lower tax take, higher claims on social services, etc. DUP might hope that UK will increase its subvention to keep the NI government solvent (although I wouldn't assume even that) but nobody can imagine that there will be cash handouts directly to private individuals and businesses to compensate them for Brexit-related costs and losses.

The Nordies will be screwed, economically speaking. The DUP knows this, but reckons it will make them identify more strongly with the UK. Or something.

Sure, that's how they think but I rather think that it'll all backfire on them in the end.

FrancieBrady

The DUP and other Unionists have no problem using the fact that they have been an economic sinkhole requiring subsidy since partition almost as a positive for remaining in the UK and that somehow that will make them proud members of the UK.

There will be much more public expressions of this as talk of a UI increases. Pattitionists this side of the border will also highlight it as a negative though.

Peregrinus

FrancieBrady wrote: »

The DUP and other Unionists have no problem using the fact that they have been an economic sinkhole requiring subsidy since partition almost as a positive for remaining in the UK and that somehow that will make them proud members of the UK.

There will be much more public expressions of this as talk of a UI increases. Pattitionists this side of the border will also highlight it as a negative though.

The fact that GB has been willing to provide ever increasing subsidies to NI during its steady economic decline is undoubtedly a plus for NI.

However, it becomes a minus if we think that NI's steady decline is in fact attributable to its continuing connection to GB. It's striking that when partition was implemented NI was much the wealthier part of Ireland but, after nearly 100 years of partition, it is much the poorer. The obvious conclusion is that there is much to be said for independence, economically speaking.

And that conclusion will be reinforced if, as the price of mantaining the union with GB, NI has to leave the EU and suffer still more harm and still more decline, and seek still greater subsidies from GB. Staying in the union in order to cotinue receiving the subsidies begins to look less attractive when being in the union is part of the reason you need the subsidies in the first place.

VinLieger

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Pattitionists this side of the border will also highlight it as a negative though.

Because it is a huge negative, the 12 billion required annually is proportionately a completely different prospect for the UK than it is to ROI.


Add to that all the other costs of reunification and the long term economic issues that will likely ensue and right now reunification from a financial and economic view does not make sense. It could take us all decades to recover if it is implemented badly.

Charles Babbage

Peregrinus wrote: »

Yes. The way things were shaping up before Brexit, the long-term demographic trend which will lead to a Catholic majority in NI before much longer was being offset by a growing propensity of Catholics to accept, if not enthusiastically support, NI's place within the Union. That was made possible because the open border and the GFA meant there was little tension between affirming an Irish identity and accepting the status quo.

Hard Brexit, and a hard border, will hole this below the waterline. If accepting NI's place within the UK means accepting a hard border in Ireland, Catholics are required to make a choice which it is very much in Arlene Foster's interest that they should not be required to make. The DUP should be a tireless advocate for the softest of soft Brexits.

The Ashcroft poll shows a similar trend, huge shift in opinion to a fairly close balance. Like the poll last week this shows more Protestants in favour of a United Ireland than Catholics in favour of the UK, albeit mostly Alliance voters. The DUP would be wise to consider the trend here.