Brexit discussion thread III

Imreoir2

Nody wrote: »

First of all there will be no issues with food or fuel; in fact any imports is the easiest thing for UK to get done because they set the rules and will simply let the trucks rolling in without checks; some speciality items such as radio active materials etc. not included.

Except of course that it is not a one sided border. The UK can throw open its border, but that does not mean that the EU will.

Zubeneschamali

Nody wrote: »

A WTO dispute easily takes over a decade to resolve esp. if you start counter filling BS disputes about unfair trade advantage as reason; they can run it for years before having to deal with the consequences of it which by the time will be another government's problem anyway and they would/should have been able to stabilize the situation by then.

But at the very same time they will be starting the process of moving to WTO terms with all sorts of countries that they currently trade with as part of the EU. No way will they get WTO approval to trade while flagrantly breaching WTO rules under everyone's nose.

Peregrinus

J Mysterio wrote: »

Investment in UK car industry halves as Brexit uncertainty bites

New figures released weeks after CBI warned motor sector faces 'extinction' if Britain leaves customs union

"Investment in the UK motor industry has halved in the first half of 2018, as uncertainty about the future post-Brexit hits spending, according to the latest research from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders(SMMT).

... In the first six months of this year, the SMMT reported that investment has “stalled”, with just £347.3m earmarked for new models, equipment and facilities in the UK, which is around half the sum announced in the same period last year."

. . . which in turn was only about 60% of the figure for the year before, which was about 60% of the figure for the year before that.

Car industry production investment has been on a steady downward track since 2015:

2015: £2.5 billion
2016: £1.6 billion
2017: £1.1 billion
2018 (first half): £0.347 billion

There's a pattern here, people.

sink

Peregrinus wrote: »

Is this illegal under WTO rules? As long as they apply zero tariffs/zero regulatory requirements to imports from every country equally, what WTO rule do they break?

mickoneill31 make the point that such a strategy pretty much puts the kibosh on any notion of negotiating attractive trade deals, and he's quite right - it's hard to bargain when you have conceded every thing up front. But would it actually infringe WTO rules?

The farmers will literally block the ports with tractors if that ever happens. Why wouldn't they? At that point they're looking at a total wipe out. Their choice will be starvation, sell up or to sign a contract with an American agri-conglomerate, where they re mortgage the farm to re-invest in gm-crops/factory-farming with all profits going to the corporation and they hope to be able scrape enough out of the bottom of the barrel to eat every week.

I don't think the British public are as complacent as a lot of you are making out. They have history of striking and rioting when the chips are down. In a no-deal scenario it won't take very long for it to kick off.

Nody

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

But at the very same time they will be starting the process of moving to WTO terms with all sorts of countries that they currently trade with as part of the EU. No way will they get WTO approval to trade while flagrantly breaching WTO rules under everyone's nose.

Once again short term vs long term issues; I fully agree that it will cause them a heck of a lot of problems down the line but I'm under no illusions what the government would choose either.

VinLieger

Peregrinus wrote: »

. . . which in turn was only about 60% of the figure for the year before, which was about 60% of the figure for the year before that.

Car industry production investment has been on a steady downward track since 2015:

2015: £2.5 billion
2016: £1.6 billion
2017: £1.1 billion
2018 (first half): £0.347 billion

There's a pattern here, people.

Hmm is it possible that something happened in 2016........

Leroy42

J Mysterio wrote: »

I work in Brussels alongside the EU Brexit negotiators and I find it incredible how little the UK government understands

Are we really being serious when we ask the EU to give the UK, as a third country, the same level of access as a member to sensitive information like satellite development and criminal databases?

"Being an MEP is a bit like being a DHL package: no sooner have I arrived in Brussels for meetings with businesses, NGOs and sometimes bigwigs like Guy Verhofstadt (the European parliament Brexit coordinator), than I’m being shipped off again to London for marches, rallies and occasionally some rest in my garden in Oxford (very occasionally). Being shipped back and forth across the English Channel isn’t always easy – but it does give you some great perspective on Brexit.

Everyone I meet, wherever I am these days, asks me the same thing: “What are the Brits doing?” Even Brits ask me what we’re doing. And I wish I knew what we were doing, I really do. The trouble is that all we’ve received from the British government in the last year and a half has been overused slogans, half-baked threats and undercooked plans. Just one thing has been resoundingly clear from the government: Brexit means Brexit"

Catherine Bearder UK MEP - Independent UK

Think that article touches on some of the main problems, that being that the UK simply don't understand exactly what Brexit really means.

Comments on articles are not usually any good, but this but from one I thought was good

I think part of the problem is that very few really knew what ingredients made up the cake. Many of the things we are now being told the UK will lose were never considered.
The matter is far too complex for a referendum but if it were to happen the whole thing should have been two phase.
Referendum question 1, 'should the government examine the consequences of leaving the EU' Referendum question 2 after perhaps years of work 'here are the consequences, do you want to leave'.

Now of course that all academic at this point, they did hold a ref and voted, but it is pretty clear to me that few people really understood what they were voting for. I don't mean that in a "leavers are all idiots" POV, but rather than the EU is such a complicated animal, there is such massive complexity within it. Even the great "take back our laws" very quickly became "simply change all the laws from saying EU to UK and leave them as they are and we can think about that later". Although I agree that doesn't fit aas easily on a t-shirt of side of a bus!

And I think that is what will be the breaking of all this. At the moment Brexit is still and idea, one that many people in the UK are fed up with hearing about. "Just get on with it" is a cry you hear again and again. But ask them what that means and the most you'll get its "Get on with leaving".

But what about the freedom to travel. Well, yeah for holidays obviously. And healthcare, well again, expats should get that. And control of ports? Simply let them be open? But doesn't that hinder stopping foreigners coming in? Yeah but we don't give them jobs and money or houses so they will simply go back?

They want everything to remain the same, but things to be different. Many, and I include myself and I would guess everyone but the most focused on EU individuals, simply have no idea as to the range of things that will be effected.

But when Brexit becomes a reality, when visas are required, when Johnny can't work in France over the summer, when Lukasz can't work in the UK over the summer. When their are 5 hour queue to get on an off ferries. When they have to stand in line with non-EU at airport passport control and watch EU citizens from the same plane simply stroll through passport control. That's when the reality is going to hit. Talk about Airbus and BMW, CoL banks etc. It doesn't mean much to the majority of people, can be passed off as "not my problem". Like in all politics, its the little things that trip you up.

Zubeneschamali

Nody wrote: »

Once again short term vs long term issues; I fully agree that it will cause them a heck of a lot of problems down the line but I'm under no illusions what the government would choose either.

So they throw open the ports and airports to unrestricted imports while scuppering their chances of ever exporting anything to a WTO country short term, negotiating any trade deal with anyone ever, or having anything left to export long term.

This would end even worse than my worst predictions.

Leroy42

He is not saying they should, he is saying that to deal with the short term they will.

Imreoir2

VinLieger wrote: »

Hmm is it possible that something happened in 2016........

Hush now, stop looking at information and just quietly whisper "Brexit Dividend" to yourself, like a good chap.

Zubeneschamali

Leroy42 wrote: »

He is not saying they should, he is saying that to deal with the short term they will.

Well, to avoid calling in the UN to supply food aid, maybe they would have to.

Which is exactly why they really cannot crash out - they will have to fold at the last minute and accept:

a) a Canada deal with
b) special status for NI and
c) a border in the Irish Sea

The utter destruction of English farming and manufacturing just to keep food on the shelves is not a realistic alternative.

mickoneill31

Leroy42 wrote: »

Think that article touches on some of the main problems, that being that the UK simply don't understand exactly what Brexit really means.

Were you not paying attention for the first 6 months after the referendum?
Brexit means Brexit.

Seth Brundle

Just checking, what happens if the UK exit without a deal but don't put up a border?
Will the EU/Irl have to put one up?


Also, I don't want to make assumptions but has the EU promised that any UK residents can live and work in Europe without the requirement for a visa? How will that affect NI residents (both with an Irish and a UK passport)?

Imreoir2

Seth Brundle wrote: »

Just checking, what happens if the UK exit without a deal but don't put up a border?
Will the EU/Irl have to put one up?


Also, I don't want to make assumptions but has the EU promised that any UK residents can live and work in Europe without the requirement for a visa? How will that affect NI residents (both with an Irish and a UK passport)?

Yes, the default position in a no-deal scenario is a hard border. In reality it will be impossible to effectively police the border, but the border will still have to be put in place. The EU is already warning member states to increase capacity so that they can deal with the increased workload at borders and airports in the event of a no-deal Brexit.

No deal means no deal, most EU countries will probably unilaterally choose to issue UK citizens already in the country with some from of work/residency rights as no one wants to have to deal with rounding them up and deporting them all, but there would be noting compelling them to do so. UK citizens wishing to go to an EU state after Brexit will probably need to apply for a visa.

LeinsterDub

Seth Brundle wrote: »

Just checking, what happens if the UK exit without a deal but don't put up a border?
Will the EU/Irl have to put one up?

Yes as we'll not trade on WTO tariffs

Seth Brundle wrote: »

Also, I don't want to make assumptions but has the EU promised that any UK residents can live and work in Europe without the requirement for a visa? How will that affect NI residents (both with an Irish and a UK passport)?

No they'll be citizen of a 3rd country . One with on residency rights or the right to work. People in the North with and Irish passport will be EU citizen and unaffected, those in the North with a British passport will be British and will have the above applied to them until such time as they can an Irish passport.

Leroy42

LeinsterDub wrote: »

No they'll be citizen of a 3rd country . One with on residency rights or the right to work. People in the North with and Irish passport will be EU citizen and unaffected, those in the North with a British passport will be British and will have the above applied to them until such time as they can an Irish passport.

That could very well prove to be quite a sticky point after Brexit happens. Basically certain citizens of the UK will, depending on the outcome of Brexit, have more rights that other citizens.

How can the UK government stand over that? And will the DUP, since they want to be treated exactly the same as the rest of the UK, demand that NI citizens now lose this right (to dual citizenship).

If I was a person living in Manchester (or wherever in Britain) I would see it as deeply unfair that people in NI have these greater rights.

mickoneill31

LeinsterDub wrote: »

Yes as we'll not trade on WTO tariffs



No they'll be citizen of a 3rd country . One with on residency rights or the right to work. People in the North with and Irish passport will be EU citizen and unaffected, those in the North with a British passport will be British and will have the above applied to them until such time as they can an Irish passport.

I've heard that some countries are looking at giving their UK expats residency. However many people (they're not all retirees) who move to Europe live in one country and work in another. That won't help them.

Imreoir2

mickoneill31 wrote: »

I've heard that some countries are looking at giving their UK expats residency. However many people (they're not all retirees) who move to Europe live in one country and work in another. That won't help them.

There may be a possibility that the EU parliament will propose to allow British citizens to apply to keep their EU citizenship on an individual basis. There is a case making its way through the European courts at the moment considering the question if EU citizenship is tied to member state citizenship or if it belongs to each citizen independent of their member state citizenship.

Zubeneschamali

I see some Twitter excitement about a UBS survey of companies plans in the UK:
https://twitter.com/peter_tl/status/1011531361264513024

J Mysterio

NHS - in crisis
Military/ MOD - in crisis
Financial/ City - in crisis
Transport - trains/ planes - in crisis
Car Industry - in crisis
Fruit pickers- in crisis
Scotland tourism- in crisis

Etc. Etc.

Everywhere you look, things are getting worse, and this is only the beginning.

Imreoir2

You kinda have to admire the pure pig headed refusal to change tack of the people who still say it's all "Project Fear" and that everything will be fine.

Peregrinus

Imreoir2 wrote: »

There may be a possibility that the EU parliament will propose to allow British citizens to apply to keep their EU citizenship on an individual basis. There is a case making its way through the European courts at the moment considering the question if EU citizenship is tied to member state citizenship or if it belongs to each citizen independent of their member state citizenship.

It would require an amendment to the EU Treaties, as far as I can see, since these firmly link EU citizenship with citizenship of a member state. And that (a) takes time, and (b) requires unanimous agreement by all member states.

Mezcita

J Mysterio wrote: »

NHS - in crisis
Military/ MOD - in crisis
Financial/ City - in crisis
Transport - trains/ planes - in crisis
Car Industry - in crisis
Fruit pickers- in crisis
Scotland tourism- in crisis

Etc. Etc.

Everywhere you look, things are getting worse, and this is only the beginning.

Thing is that over here none of that has hit home yet. The average punter is probably more concerned with England's progress in the World Cup. That's why I'm now a full hard Brexit advocate. It's going to hurt like hell but it's genuinely the only way that people will see sense here.

Roll on the 29th of March.

Leroy42

I can't really see how there won't be a hard brexit. TM and the government have continued to paint themselves into a ever smaller corner. Why fight so hard against the amendment unless they realistically saw a no-deal as a real possibility? There was nothing to be gained by it.

The fact that TM was failed to deliver the White Paper prior to the June summit tells you everything. They are either not taking this seriously, or they are and have no real answers. Either of these does not bode well for a deal.

There is a quite a sizeable amount of the UK public who really don't see a border in NI as an issue. Either put one up, get rid of NI, doesn't matter but deliver Brexit.

And even if we somehow avoid a hard brexit, which at this point will solely be done to the EU doing whatever is required as the UK seem unable to cope, then I fear that the hard Brexiteers will simply use this to drive for even harder deal. Any problems the UK does encounter will be done to the deal that was struck.

But I have little faith in any deal actually getting through parliament.

Zubeneschamali

Leroy42 wrote: »

TM and the government have continued to paint themselves into a ever smaller corner. Why fight so hard against the amendment unless they realistically saw a no-deal as a real possibility? There was nothing to be gained by it.

Yes there was: another week, another month in #10.

If they told the truth from the outset, the Brexit wing would have rebelled and brought them down. So they waffle and play for time. Eventually, time will be up and the UK will face the choice of becoming a Mad Max wasteland or accepting a deal offered by the EU.

They will accept the deal, and it will be too late for the Brexiteers to do anything about it.

First Up

Mezcita wrote: »

Thing is that over here none of that has hit home yet. The average punter is probably more concerned with England's progress in the World Cup. That's why I'm now a full hard Brexit advocate. It's going to hurt like hell but it's genuinely the only way that people will see sense here.

Roll on the 29th of March.

The average punter may be ignorant and unaware but the government is getting it with both barrels on a daily basis from the CBI and various captains of industry.
Boris may well say F**** business but I don't think he will get away with that for long.

EdgeCase

The line I'm getting from people in England is that it's all a lot or nonsense and everything will be completely fine and that the UK should walk away from the table (which they seem to think is for some reason a major threat...)

There are also widespread notions that the current company statements about risks are just some kind of fear mongering.

I think you've got to put yourself into the bubble of someone who vaguely reads the tabloids, has very little awareness of what's beyond the UK other than perhaps having been to a few tacky Spanish resorts full of people from the UK.

For the most part they've no idea what they're risking.

Then to make it worse, many have Brexit fatigue and seem to not want to hear any more about the subject - many of those have the "oh let's just get on with it" attitude.

Mezcita

First Up wrote: »

The average punter may be ignorant and unaware but the government is getting it with both barrels on a daily basis from the CBI and various captains of industry.
Boris may well say F**** business but I don't think he will get away with that for long.

Just need to ramp up the propaganda machine then. Been working for decades for them. Project the (totally reasonable) concerns from business as being Project Fear/ Remoaner nonsense. Once they crash out they can pin the blame on the EU for not giving them the ultimate dream deal.

As J Mysterio pointed out the wheels are starting to come off across multiple different areas. But the media can just either choose to ignore it or not give it the coverage it merits. The tide simply hasn't turned to stop Brexit from happening.

Imreoir2

Mezcita wrote: »

Just need to ramp up the propaganda machine then. Been working for decades for them. Project the (totally reasonable) concerns from business as being Project Fear/ Remoaner nonsense. Once they crash out they can pin the blame on the EU for not giving them the ultimate dream deal.

As J Mysterio pointed out the wheels are starting to come off across multiple different areas. But the media can just either choose to ignore it or not give it the coverage it merits. The tide simply hasn't turned to stop Brexit from happening.

I don't hold much hope at this stage that hard brexit can be avoided. But I do hope that when it happens, it will cause enough of a shock to the UK system that it drives some momentum behind those working to beat back the brexiteers. Lets not forget that there was never a wide margin of support for Brexit in the first place and its lead has been shrinking not growing. Faced with the reality of Brexit, it only needs a very small swing to get the majority behind a sensible deal.

EdgeCase

Just to follow on on my previous post (a few back).

One of the conversations I had over in England really left me wondering about what's going on. I was talking to a guy in his early 20s who told me that he'd never voted in any elections, but had voted for Brexit. Then he assured me that he would never vote in any elections in future either as he felt it was pointless and that Brexit was the only thing that could make a big change.

He told me about how he was struggling to make ends meet because his wages weren't keeping pace with inflation. Then that his parents were in unstable employment and had no prospect of pensions and his grandmother had been "messed around" by the bedroom tax and that the establishment considered him to be a 'chav' and he had no future. He went on to say that things for him were dire and he couldn't see how Brexit could possibly make them any worse.

It's an odd, odd time over there and I think they're completely underestimating the underlying problems that were bubbling up when they London (and other cities) riots kicked off back in 2011 and were more or less ignored as 'a bunch of malcontents' by BOTH mainstream parties and were utterly dismissed by the vast majority of the media.

They did no analysis, no digging, no thinking .. nothing.

I still think there's a massive element of Brexit that's a snap back at things like affordability of housing, a perception of declining living standards and opportunity and stripping back of social services and things like access to university education.

You've seen a relatively rapid unpicking of a lot of the structures that were keeping Britain less unequal than it is now. The social cohesion has been chipped away at by the Tories, but also by an element of Labour too in the post-Blair era and in the aftermath of 2008.

It's something Ireland would also want to learn from. Failing to tackle the housing crisis here and "us vs them" politics talking about people in bad circumstances as 'lazy' and so on will lead to all the same problems if we're not careful.
I don't think we are quite as bad as at least there's a debate here about many of those social issues, even if the government doesn't really respond very effectively (particularly in housing), but you could easily see Ireland sliding into that mess very rapidly if things aren't copped onto soon.

The ever-increasing costs relative to income are just creating a lot of disgruntled people who are basically the 'working poor'.

I think though all of that has fed into Brexit in the UK. It's not as simple as the tabloids would have you believe.

What worries me a *lot* is what do people like this guy do when Brexit happens and delivers even more austerity and the Tories' wet dream of funnelling resources into elites?

Imreoir2

EdgeCase wrote: »

He went on to say that things for him were dire and he couldn't see how Brexit could possibly make them any worse.

He'll find out in a few months.

Seriously though, its such a pity that people in the UK have been taken in by a narrative of imposed helplessness. Unions, strikes, even riots were tools that people like him could have used in the past to force Government to level the playing field. But now people have been fooled into abstaining from the process or kicking themselves in the balls instead of doing something productive to help themselves and their communities.

EdgeCase

Imreoir2 wrote: »

He'll find out in a few months.

Seriously though, its such a pity that people in the UK have been taken in by a narrative of imposed helplessness. Unions, strikes, even riots were tools that people like him could have used in the past to force Government to level the playing field. But now people have been fooled into abstaining from the process or kicking themselves in the balls instead of doing something productive to help themselves and their communities.

I don't think it's anything new. It's just a broken political system that is quite happy to grab power with toxic, lies-based politics. I see very little positivity coming out of the UK political environment.

Bear in mind that the place is so toxic that a very friendly, warm, positive-looking, normal, centrist MP was even assassinated back in 2016. That's something that you don't see very often in a developed, Western European democracy.

There's something gone *very* wrong over there at the moment and it's really not being analysed or challenged, any more than it is in the US with Trump.

What's even worse is that the level of toxicity and venom has been normalised in debate in a way that I haven't really seen before.

There isn't even any leadership to look towards. I don't see anyone over there selling a positive message on anything, and I would include the left and right in that. May's abysmal and I find Corbyn depressing.

Nobody's laying out a positive future, it's all about 'fear of others'.

I think you are going to see the UK basically self-harm through Brexit and we should be preparing for impending fallout that may impact us here.

Mezcita

Imreoir2 wrote: »

I don't hold much hope at this stage that hard brexit can be avoided. But I do hope that when it happens, it will cause enough of a shock to the UK system that it drives some momentum behind those working to beat back the brexiteers. Lets not forget that there was never a wide margin of support for Brexit in the first place and its lead has been shrinking not growing. Faced with the reality of Brexit, it only needs a very small swing to get the majority behind a sensible deal.

Sure but their system (as in their electoral system) does not allow change to happen easily. The first past the post system totally eliminates the voice of quite a large amount of people who might not want to support Labour or the Conservatives.

The margin of support for Brexit hasn't collapsed. While those who voted to remain seem unwilling to fight it. The remain march in London last weekend possibly being the most blatant sign of that. 100,000 people when in reality it should be far higher if people actually cared enough about the whole thing.

But even if the scales tipped the other way and Brexit was stopped, that would still leave a huge number of people who think that Brexit is the start of a new dawn for Britain. Their response would be anything but measured and I think that would be another flash point which would actually escalate to violence over here. People have nothing to lose.

Let them roll the dice and find out for themselves how they get on away from the EU. It's the only way they will learn.

Dymo

Imreoir2 wrote: »

You kinda have to admire the pure pig headed refusal to change tack of the people who still say it's all "Project Fear" and that everything will be fine.

I quite like this form of reasoning by Brexiters, it all the EU's fault bloody French and Germans

Brexit. UK is Europe's bad guy now.
These people have some cheek. Some bloody cheek! It hasn't been even 100 years since the time we sailed to save the same France that is now looking down their noses at us.

We didn't have to liberate the fields of france and to be honest, I'm starting to regret it now. And the Germans! Don't even get me started on those Germans, inventors of the holocaust and propagators of world wars. You now have the brass to make Brexit difficult for us?!

You don't have me fooled for one second. This is just another German scheme for world domination. We noticed the artificially low Euro..Hmm I wonder who that benefits..Surely not Europe's manufacturing nation, surely not! It just riles me up! Really just goes to show you just how far favours can be returned. spit

Zubeneschamali

Mezcita wrote: »

People have nothing to lose.

This is, of course, not true at all. They have food, medicine and fuel.

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/mad-max-brexit-officials-tell-12640465

Officials present 3 crashout scenarios. In one scenario, the port of Dover collapses on Day 1, supermarkets begin running out of food within a week, hospitals run out of medicines within 2 weeks.

That is not the worst case scenario.

EdgeCase

EdgeCase wrote: »

There's something gone *very* wrong over there at the moment and it's really not being analysed or challenged, any more than it is in the US with Trump.

What's even worse is that the level of toxicity and venom has been normalised in debate in a way that I haven't really seen before.

Having a woman dosed up on morphine carrying a sick bucket wheeled in in a wheelchair have to travel from Birmingham into the chamber to cast a vote. Another woman 2 days overdue having to do the same. Things have certainly gotten worse.

kunst nugget

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

This is, of course, not true at all. They have food, medicine and fuel.

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/mad-max-brexit-officials-tell-12640465

Officials present 3 crashout scenarios. In one scenario, the port of Dover collapses on Day 1, supermarkets begin running out of food within a week, hospitals run out of medicines within 2 weeks.

That is not the worst case scenario.

The artist's impression is hilarious.

VinLieger

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

This is, of course, not true at all. They have food, medicine and fuel.

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/mad-max-brexit-officials-tell-12640465

Officials present 3 crashout scenarios. In one scenario, the port of Dover collapses on Day 1, supermarkets begin running out of food within a week, hospitals run out of medicines within 2 weeks.

That is not the worst case scenario.

Don't forget electricity and water they are both just as vulnerable to the same obstacles food medicine and fuel will face on a no deal brexit. The average person can't imagine anything like that happening because they take far too many things like water, food and electricity for granted. Look what happened up and down the UK and Ireland during the snow in Feb/March, supermarkets emptied and not properly refilled for nearly a week.



The KFC distribution fiasco is a great case study of how fvcked this might get for them. They all naively assume for example one minute delay on a couple of lorries going through customs will just mean everything is only delayed by 1 minute. Of course they are entirely ignorant to the complexities of supply chain management and how business don't stock weeks worth of supplies, they order things to be ready to be replaced exactly when they are due to run out. Any new delay that has not been calculated for and can hold things up for potentially an indefinite or uncertain amount of time will grind supply chains to a halt.

Mezcita

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

This is, of course, not true at all. They have food, medicine and fuel.

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/mad-max-brexit-officials-tell-12640465

Officials present 3 crashout scenarios. In one scenario, the port of Dover collapses on Day 1, supermarkets begin running out of food within a week, hospitals run out of medicines within 2 weeks.

That is not the worst case scenario.

I agree with you but my "nothing to lose" comment relates more to Edgecase's discussion with a guy in his 20's as it's a good indication of the lives of a number of people here.

Brexit has been painted as a chance for Britain (and therefore people like that guy) to do better by breaking away. Clearly all nonsense as the poor will be hardest hit by this. Obviously he is not representative of everyone but I do feel that the gulf between London and the rest of the UK is so large that people are looking for anything to cling onto. Brexit fits the bill.

Zubeneschamali

Mezcita wrote: »

Brexit has been painted as a chance for Britain (and therefore people like that guy) to do better by breaking away.

I don't think these people at the bottom believe Brexit will be an improvement, I think they hope it will destroy the system completely, and whatever system rises from the Max Max dystopian ashes might be better.

The risk is that they end up living in the ashes with their current Tory masters still be on top, Immortan Rees-Mogg and Imperator May.

Leroy42

Richard Ballantyne Chief Executive of the British Ports Association has just told reporters "How do you plan for something you don't know what to plan for?"

Eurotunnel Chief John O'Keefe has said "there is no space" for Customs checks at Channel Tunnel as they are "literally on a cliff", so any processing will have to be done inland.

He also said "As we know absolutely nothing from the government about what Day 1 No Deal will look like, we can't build infrastructure, can't recruit people, can't specify system - we can't construct anything"

What I find depressing is that these quotes are part of tweets from Faisal Islam and the first reply to them is "Is he a remainer by any chance?"


The UK continue to wave the threat of a no deal around yet it is clear as day they have no planning done or the ability to be ready for such an eventuality. Do they really think the EU can't see that?

Sam Russell

Leroy42 wrote: »

The UK continue to wave the threat of a no deal around yet it is clear as day they have no planning done or the ability to be ready for such an eventuality. Do they really think the EU can't see that?

I think the two high lights above say it all.

1. They have done no planning - 'because they need us more than we need them'

2. 'The EU read everything'. But we have to keep everything secret to preserve our negotiating position.

I cannot yet decide if 'No deal' is going to be the end result or they will take what is on offer, whatever that is. I think a transition year debating group would do better than the UK Government have.

Lemming

Mezcita wrote: »

The margin of support for Brexit hasn't collapsed. While those who voted to remain seem unwilling to fight it. The remain march in London last weekend possibly being the most blatant sign of that. 100,000 people when in reality it should be far higher if people actually cared enough about the whole thing.

500,000 actually by revised estimates, original source being the MET. The BBC were very slow to report the number.

An Ciarraioch

FT reporting that Bank of America are shifting jobs from London to Paris.

Leroy42

Lemming wrote: »

500,000 actually by revised estimates, original source being the MET. The BBC were very slow to report the number.

It did the job. It is yesterdays news so nobody is paying attention now. The number could be anything, but because they could use 100k it could be more easily dismissed.

Imreoir2

Sam Russell wrote: »

1. They have done no planning -

Because those plans would have to touch off of reality at some point at that means admitting that no-deal is the ****show we all know it is. If you don't want to live in the real world, less information is much better. It's easier to sleep.

Mezcita

Lemming wrote: »

500,000 actually by revised estimates, original source being the MET. The BBC were very slow to report the number.

My mistake.

Imreoir2

Mezcita wrote: »

The margin of support for Brexit hasn't collapsed.

Yes, but it does not really have to. Though I suspect that the only thing that will put this whole mess to bed is giving the Brexiteers what they want and watching it choke them.

Strazdas

EdgeCase wrote: »

Just to follow on on my previous post (a few back).

One of the conversations I had over in England really left me wondering about what's going on. I was talking to a guy in his early 20s who told me that he'd never voted in any elections, but had voted for Brexit. Then he assured me that he would never vote in any elections in future either as he felt it was pointless and that Brexit was the only thing that could make a big change.

He told me about how he was struggling to make ends meet because his wages weren't keeping pace with inflation. Then that his parents were in unstable employment and had no prospect of pensions and his grandmother had been "messed around" by the bedroom tax and that the establishment considered him to be a 'chav' and he had no future. He went on to say that things for him were dire and he couldn't see how Brexit could possibly make them any worse.

It's an odd, odd time over there and I think they're completely underestimating the underlying problems that were bubbling up when they London (and other cities) riots kicked off back in 2011 and were more or less ignored as 'a bunch of malcontents' by BOTH mainstream parties and were utterly dismissed by the vast majority of the media.

They did no analysis, no digging, no thinking .. nothing.

I still think there's a massive element of Brexit that's a snap back at things like affordability of housing, a perception of declining living standards and opportunity and stripping back of social services and things like access to university education.

You've seen a relatively rapid unpicking of a lot of the structures that were keeping Britain less unequal than it is now. The social cohesion has been chipped away at by the Tories, but also by an element of Labour too in the post-Blair era and in the aftermath of 2008.

It's something Ireland would also want to learn from. Failing to tackle the housing crisis here and "us vs them" politics talking about people in bad circumstances as 'lazy' and so on will lead to all the same problems if we're not careful.
I don't think we are quite as bad as at least there's a debate here about many of those social issues, even if the government doesn't really respond very effectively (particularly in housing), but you could easily see Ireland sliding into that mess very rapidly if things aren't copped onto soon.

The ever-increasing costs relative to income are just creating a lot of disgruntled people who are basically the 'working poor'.

I think though all of that has fed into Brexit in the UK. It's not as simple as the tabloids would have you believe.

What worries me a *lot* is what do people like this guy do when Brexit happens and delivers even more austerity and the Tories' wet dream of funnelling resources into elites?

Yes, I think the real story of Brexit is not about EU membership at all but a fractured society and many millions of people have been left behind.

Unfortunately, they have a lying and corrupt press telling them that the EU and immigrants are responsible for all the hardship and austerity and those who are worst off (like your friend) are lapping up this nonsense.

This will presumably end very badly. Probably more riots in UK cities in future and this time with no EU to blame.

Imreoir2

So... It seems that "an Irish Minister" has said to the press that David Davis is known as "the tea boy" in Irish government circles and that the Irish government will only hold discussions with Olly Robbins, a senior civil servant responsible for Brexit talks.

Asked how negotiations with Brexit Secretary David Davis were going, the Irish minister replied: “We deal with Olly Robbins. We don’t deal with the tea boy.”

From Politico.

I suppose it shows the breakdown in relations as a result of shambolic British diplomacy, but still, needless antagonism is not going to move things forward.