Brexit discussion thread III

Sierra Oscar

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Do you really think that, in the absence of an assembly and in the context of DUP intransigence, Westminster will endanger Brexit by adhering to this?

It only becomes relevant if the Phase 2 talks fail. Under the current agreement I think that is a certainty considering the hard-Brexiteers will not tolerate 'regulatory alingment' UK wide.

At that stage a hard Brexit is happening - what will they be endangering exactly?

Unless of course this current agreement is altered somewhat, which would require our EU partners to shaft us.

jm08 wrote: »

DUP have only a majority of 1 I think in Assembly. Highly likely that the Alliance and UUP would have a different take on it than the DUP - for instance, Sylvia Hermon Ind. Unionist wants NI to remain in the EU.

The DUP have 29 MLA's. They only need one more to trigger a Petition of Concern. If they are worried about that (I doubt they are) then they can keep the Assembly collapsed indefinitely, thus preventing special arrangements from being authorised in the first instance.

Professor Moriarty

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

It only becomes relevant if the Phase 2 talks fail. Under the current agreement I think that is a certainty considering the hard-Brexiteers will not tolerate 'regulatory alingment' UK wide.

At that stage a hard Brexit is happening - what will they be endangering exactly?

Unless of course this current agreement is altered somewhat, which would require our EU partners to shaft us.

If there's a hard Brexit then all bets are off. However, real politik will dictate that if push comes to shove during positive negotiations, London (with the tacit approval of Dublin) will disregard this 'veto'. The GFA was written thirty years ago to create harmony on this island in the context of all parties being members of the EU. Those circumstances are changing utterly. London will do what is in the best interests of the UK not the DUP.

Sierra Oscar

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

If there's a hard Brexit then all bets are off. However, real politik will dictate that if push comes to shove during positive negotiations, London (with the tacit approval of Dublin) will disregard this 'veto'. The GFA was written thirty years ago to create harmony on this island in the context of all parties being members of the EU. Those circumstances are changing utterly. London will do what is in the best interests of the UK not the DUP.

Oh I agree, Westminister will ultimately do what it takes to protect it's own interests.

However if the unionist veto is cast aside and they are abandoned, then you're looking at the reemergence of conflict - violent conflict at that. Abandoning the veto means the end of the Good Friday Agreement.

Call me Al

kowtow wrote: »

I don't dispute that the EU offers us some competitive advantage, but I think it is wrong that we always seem to attribute all our success to them.

I can think of African countries and Indian cities who have completely turned their agricultural economies around through tech outsourcing - all without the benefit of the EU. They did it because they had highly educated, hard working, young people and the Internet suddenly made it possible. To hand all the credit for our tech industries to EU membership is a gross disservice to the young (mainly) people who work in it.

And no serious commentator would dispute that one of Ireland's biggest competitive strengths is our tax code, a regime which is so pro-FDI that it has proved very controversial internationally. I will stop short of calling us a tax haven, but there are plenty who would not agree with me. Our tax arrangements are under threat both from Europe, on a number of fronts, and of course potentially from the US. In any event, it would not be fair to credit the EU for the competitive advantages of a tax system they wish to abolish.

So yes - the EU is part of the picture, and a big one - but to attribute all of our success and development to it is to talk ourselves down in a wholly unjustified way.

But kowtow I never said all of our success comes from the EU! Please re-read my post if that is what you think I've typed.

We are not the food basket of the UK anymore, as we were in my parent's and grandparents time, and are one of the richest countries in the developed world. We have an immense outward-looking educated workforce who have capitalised on so much on offer to us.
We are members of a huge market into which we sell our produce freely. We have benefited hugely from our involvement in the EU. And yes we have a threat on our tax regime from within the EU and without. I remember listening to an rte radio 1 discussion about a threat to our tax regime, and EU tax harmonisation in the EU, 17 years ago... yes 17 years ago so it isn't something new! and how much further along has that threat come in 17 years. We are still here, working away with strong FDI.
The UK being out of the EU isn't going to be much use to us now is it. Rather they are going to be doing their best to line themselves up as competition.

Blowfish

solodeogloria wrote: »

Good afternoon!
Something interesting about the DUP and the Cabinet on phase 1:
The Guardian have offered an account of last nights events, where it says that the DUP did not give full approval to the Prime Minister before she went to Brussels. Nor did the cabinet. She took executive authority and both bowed into line. This is interesting because it implies she has more authority than she makes out, or because both the DUP and some members of the cabinet were bluffing.

“We cautioned the prime minister about proceeding with this agreement in its present form, given the issues which still need to be resolved and the views expressed to us by many of her own party colleagues,” Foster said.

To me that was the DUP saying that though they're happy enough with it as there'll be no regulatory difference between the NI and UK, over the past few days they had the hardcore Tory Brexiteers on to them saying that they didn't want regulatory alignment at all. It was a warning that May is going to have to face down a chunk of her own party at some point.

Professor Moriarty

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

Oh I agree, Westminister will ultimately too what it takes to protect it's own interests.

However if the unionist veto is cast aside and they are abandoned, then you're looking at the reemergence of conflict - violent conflict at that.

Possibly and the reverse is also true of Republican violence. However, Unionists are pragmatic people (whatever about Loyalists). It is very possible that Brexit will herald the break up of the UK. In this case, the writing will be on the wall as English MPs (under economic pressure from Brexit) will wonder why they continue to subsidise NI. If it is a fait accompli and they are cast adrift, they may well decide that their economic interests and their future lies with closer ties to Ireland and the EU. They won't survive on their own.

The GFA is useful only as long as it remains useful. Brexit may well render it redundant.

Junkyard Tom

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

However if the unionist veto is cast aside

We haven't solidly established that there's a unionist Stormont Assembly veto.

blanch152

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Possibly and the reverse is also true of Republican violence. However, Unionists are pragmatic people (whatever about Loyalists). It is very possible that Brexit will herald the break up of the UK. In this case, the writing will be on the wall as English MPs (under economic pressure from Brexit) will wonder why they continue to subsidise NI. If it is a fait accompli and they are cast adrift, they may well decide that their economic interests and their future lies with closer ties to Ireland and the EU. They won't survive on their own.

The GFA is useful only as long as it remains useful. Brexit may well render it redundant.

The GFA prevents the rest of the UK from jettisoning NI because they are bound to respecting the democratic wishes of the people of NI.

solodeogloria

Blowfish wrote: »

To me that was the DUP saying that though they're happy enough with it as there'll be no regulatory difference between the NI and UK, over the past few days they had the hardcore Tory Brexiteers on to them saying that they didn't want regulatory alignment at all. It was a warning that May is going to have to face down a chunk of her own party at some point.

Good evening!

I don't think Arlene Foster really gives a damn about the internal dynamics of the Tory party.

They cautioned her because they felt there were "issues which still need to be resolved". She wouldn't just say that if it was just that she wanted to keep her colleagues in line. That was only a slight of hand to give extra credence to her position.

“We cautioned the prime minister about proceeding with this agreement in its present form, given the issues which still need to be resolved and the views expressed to us by many of her own party colleagues,” Foster said.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

Call me Al

Blowfish wrote: »

To me that was the DUP saying that though they're happy enough with it as there'll be no regulatory difference between the NI and UK, over the past few days they had the hardcore Tory Brexiteers on to them saying that they didn't want regulatory alignment at all. It was a warning that May is going to have to face down a chunk of her own party at some point.

Sammy Wilson was on the 1pm news on radio 1 saying they took exception to a line relating to "the economy of the island as a whole" and cautioned that they felt this should be removed before proceeding.
He then of course went on a rant about Coveney and Varadkar essentially being young upstarts who didn't know their place.
Plus ça change, plus la même chose unfortunately.

Junkyard Tom

blanch152 wrote: »

The GFA prevents the rest of the UK from jettisoning NI because they are bound to respecting the democratic wishes of the people of NI.

It doesn't prevent them from squeezing the life out of the north though and making a pro-UI vote more likely.

Someone once said the final battle for the north to remain in the disUK will be fought between English nationalists and N. Irish Unionists.

Sierra Oscar

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

We haven't solidly established that there's a unionist Stormont Assembly veto.

How haven’t we? I’ve already pointed out that the Assembly and Executive must sanaction any special arrangements.

If you know how the Assembly and Executive work then you will realise that a Petition of Concern can be used to block such arrangements. The DUP alone can pretty much achieve that, they only need one additional MLA.

Not to mention that the DUP have another effective veto - i.e. preventing the re-establishment of the Assembly in the first place.

blanch152

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

That's presuming all unionists will be on the same page, that the PoC remains in place (there was talk of it being done away with), and there being an assembly in place.

That's a fairy rickety veto if it could even be described as a veto.

Are you advocating changing the GFA? This is what it says:

"(d)
arrangements to ensure key decisions are taken on a cross-community basis;
(i)
either parallel consent, i.e. a majority of those members present and voting, including a majority of the unionist and nationalist designations present and voting;
(ii)
or a weighted majority (60%) of members present and voting, including at least 40% of each of the nationalist and unionist designations present and voting.
Key decisions requiring cross-community support will be designated in advance, including election of the Chair of the Assembly, the First Minister and Deputy First Minister, standing orders and budget allocations. In other cases such decisions could be triggered by a petition of concern brought by a significant minority of Assembly members (30/108)."

I mean this agreement was supposed to be about protecting the GFA.

blanch152

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

It doesn't prevent them from squeezing the life out of the north though and making a pro-UI vote more likely.

Someone once said the final battle for the north to remain in the disUK will be fought between English nationalists and N. Irish Unionists.

That is wishful thinking and also against the GFA.

"The participants endorse the commitment made by the British and Irish Governments that, in a new British-Irish Agreement replacing the Anglo-Irish Agreement, they will:
(i)
recognise the legitimacy of whatever choice is freely exercised by a majority of the people of Northern Ireland with regard to its status, whether they prefer to continue to support the Union with Great Britain or a sovereign united Ireland;"

In relation to economic development, it says:

"2.
Subject to the public consultation currently under way, the British Government will make rapid progress with:
(i)
a new regional development strategy for Northern Ireland, for consideration in due course by a the Assembly, tackling the problems of a divided society and social cohesion in urban, rural and border areas, protecting and enhancing the environment, producing new approaches to transport issues, strengthening the physical infrastructure of the region, developing the advantages and resources of rural areas and rejuvenating major urban centres;
(ii)
a new economic development strategy for Northern Ireland, for consideration in due course by a the Assembly, which would provide for short and medium term economic planning linked as appropriate to the regional development strategy; and
(iii) measures on employment equality included in the recent White Paper ("Partnership for Equality") and covering the extension and strengthening of anti-discrimination legislation, a review of the national security aspects of the present fair employment legislation at the earliest possible time, a new more focused Targeting Social Need initiative and a range of measures aimed at combating unemployment and progressively eliminating the differential in unemployment rates between the two communities by targeting objective need." etc. etc.

The British cannot abandon the North, they have international legal obligations to it.

What you also forget and this misguided notion that the UK will abandon the North is that the GFA also says that:

"recognise the birthright of all the people of Northern Ireland to identify themselves and be accepted as Irish or British"

Their right to be British is enshrined in international law, and trumps any statements about no selfish interest etc. etc.

Blowfish

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

How haven’t we? I’ve already pointed out that the Assembly and Executive must sanaction any special arrangements.

If you know how the Assembly and Executive work then you will realise that a Petition of Concern can be used to block such arrangements. The DUP alone can pretty much achieve that, they only need one additional MLA.

Not to mention that the DUP have another effective veto - i.e. preventing the re-establishment of the Assembly in the first place.

It should be pointed out that they effectively do have that 1 MLA in the form of the Jim Allister from TUV. There's no chance he wouldn't support them on this.

whatever_

Call me Al wrote: »

But kowtow I never said all of our success comes from the EU! Please re-read my post if that is what you think I've typed.

We are not the food basket of the UK anymore, as we were in my parent's and grandparents time, and are one of the richest countries in the developed world. We have an immense outward-looking educated workforce who have capitalised on so much on offer to us.
We are members of a huge market into which we sell our produce freely. We have benefited hugely from our involvement in the EU. And yes we have a threat on our tax regime from within the EU and without. I remember listening to an rte radio 1 discussion about a threat to our tax regime, and EU tax harmonisation in the EU, 17 years ago... yes 17 years ago so it isn't something new! and how much further along has that threat come in 17 years. We are still here, working away with strong FDI.
The UK being out of the EU isn't going to be much use to us now is it. Rather they are going to be doing their best to line themselves up as competition.

I agree with some of this, but not your final point. The UK has a specific issue with companies like Google doing a billion or so of business in the UK without paying any tax on it. Beyond that, the real threat to Ireland's FDI model comes from the EU rather than the UK. It is difficult to see Ireland being able to continue as now within the EU.

blanch152

Blowfish wrote: »

It should be pointed out that they effectively do have that 1 MLA in the form of the Jim Allister from TUV. There's no chance he wouldn't support them on this.

You are trampling on nationalist dreams that the British will abandon their citizens in the North and get away with it.

The fact is that the British are committed to keeping Northern Ireland in the UK as long as its people want that, but more than that, they are also committed to supporting Northern Ireland as part of that international agreement.

FrancieBrady

It will be very interesting to see if the UUP make a play for those voters who see a sea border as a necessary price to pay. That could hurt the DUP badly and there is little doubt imo that that vote is there among moderate sensible unionists.

First Up

whatever_ wrote:

I agree with some of this, but not your final point. The UK has a specific issue with companies like Google doing a billion or so of business in the UK without paying any tax on it. Beyond that, the real threat to Ireland's FDI model comes from the EU rather than the UK. It is difficult to see Ireland being able to continue as now within the EU.

There are issues around multi-national tax avoidance but it is not an EU issue per se. It needs to (and will) be solved on a wider, global level by the OECD.

Meanwhile individual EU states will retain control over their tax regimes and rightly so. It is nonsensical to expect economies as diverse as Germany, Greece, Romania or Estonia to adopt the same tax structure.

Yes there is scope for cooperation to close loopholes but fiscal policy is a fundamental principle of sovereignty.

In any case, tax is not the all-consuming factor in FDI that some people seem to think. Market access, availabilty of skills and positive and stable business and political environments are huge factors.

Mr.Nice Guy

I think the details released today amount to a fudge. From the Irish government's point of view it would appear that a hard border now looks improbable so that is a good outcome. A lot of the detail remains to be thrashed out, however, and it's clear that there are conflicting interpretations over what "alignment" will amount to.

To use a football analogy I think the Irish government have come away from the first leg with a 1-1 result. We got the away goal (no hard border) and if there is a future stalemate then that should be enough to see us through. But it's too early imo to call this an outright win for Dublin as some seem to be suggesting because the DUP did get amendments added that they claim guarantee they will be part of whatever arrangement the UK winds up with. Phase two will tell us whether they are correct in that interpretation.

kowtow

Call me Al wrote: »

But kowtow I never said all of our success comes from the EU! Please re-read my post if that is what you think I've typed.

I know you didn't, I'm sorry if my post implied that you did.

Nevertheless, it is a bug-bear of mine that whilst I regularly hear praise heaped upon the EU for the development of Ireland's economy I rarely hear any acknowledgement of the skills of our workforce (Irish families have been making sacrifices to educate their children since long before the EU) and the huge changes in technology which have finally given them a route to global markets without emigration.

We should make more of our strengths, both inside and outside the EU.

First Up

Mr.Nice Guy wrote:

I think the details released today amount to a fudge. From the Irish government's point of view it would appear that a hard border now looks improbable so that is a good outcome. A lot of the detail remains to be thrashed out, however, and it's clear that there are conflicting interpretations over what "alignment" will amount to.

There is a way to go but there is no fudge on the important stuff;

1 - Ireland's position in the Single Market is secure.

2 - Responsibility for squaring the UK's compliance with EU market requirements and its own internal market is where it should be - with the UK.

3 - The EU is dealing with this from a position of strength and unity.

The "alignment" bit will be settled at a technical, not a political level and the EU will decide that. The risk of the UK using Ireland as a hostage to squeeze a "cake and eat it" mutual recognition out of it has been firmly binned.

Itssoeasy

So nearly twelve hours on are we still as happy as it seemed this thread was this morning. That was the sense I got this morning.

Also watching the six one News and Tommie Gorman looks very tired freezing.

Enzokk

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

I'm surprised at the amount of jubilation doing the rounds on our side. I'd urge caution, the hard work is only starting now.

Don't get me wrong - the Government have done a fantastic job here. Realistically it's the best they could have achieved. However people are foolish if they think the threat of a hard border is now off the table entirely. It simply isn't.

The British Government were desperate to move on to Phase 2 of the talks. Ultimately they would have done or said anything to achieve this. People should pay attention to what senior British Government Minister's are saying time and time again today - i.e. "Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed". The British will renege on what has been agreed should the Phase 2 talks collapse. That is almost a certainty.

Just think about what Theresa May has tentatively signed up to today. They are committing to achieving 'regulatory alignment' for the entire UK, this is to satisfy the DUP demand that the entirety of the UK leaves under the same conditions. This is impossible for Theresa May to achieve. Her own hard-Brexiteers will ensure that it does not come to pass. It's an aspiration Theresa May is willing to peddle to progress the talks to Stage 2.

To satisfy the Irish Government and our EU partners, the British Government have committed to allowing special arrangements between North and South should the Phase 2 talks fail and 'regulatory alignment' cannot be achieved UK-wide. However, and this is the crucial bit, the Northern Assembly will have to sanction these arrangements. This mean the DUP has a complete veto over the arrangements.

We already know that the DUP simply will not tolerate a situation whereby Northern Ireland exits the EU under differing circumstances to the rest of the UK. Therefore they will certainly veto the special arrangements.

This will lead to a situation whereby a hard border is inevitable. The British Government will not implement one - it'll likely fall to Ireland to maintain the integrity of the Customs Union. The British will turn around and say 'we don't want a border, you're the ones implementing one' even though they are effectively creating the conditions necessary for a hard border.

As far as I can see, the only way this can be avoided is if the Phase 2 talks are actually a success. I don't see how they can be considering Theresa May has just made a commitment for 'regulatory alignment' which will not even please the hard-Brexiteers in her own cabinet.

This is a good day for Ireland in the sense that we've got a commitment from the British in principal for no hard border, but it's ultimately meaningless should the Phase 2 talks fail. Keep in mind we don't have a veto for Phase 2. I hope our EU partners don't shaft us.

If phase 2 talks fail for whatever reason, surely that will mean a collapse of the UK government? Either Theresa May tried to get a "soft" Brexit and she was stopped in her tracks by either the DUP or more likely her own party. She will have lost confidence of her party and would resign. This would surely be a trigger for new elections.

You would then have a new government to deal with and to pick up the pieces. How far, in that scenario, do we think a hard Brexit candidate would be able to go? If there is uncertainty at that stage you would expect economic forecasts to go down even further and any projections on a hard Brexit will be laid bare.

J Mysterio

Itssoeasy wrote: »

So nearly twelve hours on are we still as happy as it seemed this thread was this morning. That was the sense I got this morning.

Also watching the six one News and Tommie Gorman looks very tired freezing.

I'm happy, if a bit worn out. This has been a good day for Ireland.

We have kept our composure and dignity through the whole sordid affair and came out the other side more or less where we were before only with a possible better international reputation and with a United Ireland seemingly more likely.

I am pleased at how Ireland came together and how the Irish government approached both the situations in Westminster and in the North, and the tone they set. It wasnt divisive, but it was firm.

I have also been heartened by the strong support of the EU and the very real relationships Irish diplomats and politicans have with the people who matter in Europe.

I think Ireland is an even more desirable place for for any multinationals now. We just need to encourage some of these away from Dublin and try and develop other parts of the country. Limerick, Cork and Waterford in particular.

So... Not to get too sidetracked... A good day for Ireland. Lets hope the rest of the proccess can go a bit smooter from here, though I'm not confident that the UK parliament will be able to hold it together through Phase 2. Their government may fall yet, pitiful as it is.

I feel a bit sorry for ordinary British people as this are going to get worse for them and their government have been an embarrassment. The British reputation has taken a hammering.

The whole thing has been a bit of an ordeal really, if comical at times. Glad it's over with for a short while at least.

Sierra Oscar

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

I'm surprised at the amount of jubilation doing the rounds on our side. I'd urge caution, the hard work is only starting now.

Don't get me wrong - the Government have done a fantastic job here. Realistically it's the best they could have achieved. However people are foolish if they think the threat of a hard border is now off the table entirely. It simply isn't......

Excellent post there Sierra. While I'm happy (from a EU/Ire point of view) with the outcome of todays talks theres simply too much that can go wrong when one looks into the future. The RoI/NI border will end up being an EU external frontier should Brexit occur and if its a no deal Brexit a hard border cannot unfortunately be ruled out.

Sam Russell

realdanbreen wrote: »

Why are we hearing that arch bigot Wilson and his fellow bigots on our media?
Despite what the Taoiseach felt he had to say this morning to assure them very few people down hear want to see or hear from them.
Once the tory's have sorted themselves out then the DUP will be jettisoned and the real players, EU & UK will cut a deal although none of us will see a significant difference for 10 to 15 years.

Following the interview with Sammy Wilson, RTE issued an Orange Warning - I kid you not.

[They were talking about the weather!]

I thought it was funny - I wonder was it a gag by RTE.

Deleted User

Deleted User wrote: »

I guess the possibility of Ireland and the DUP being heroes is still on the cards.. If Ireland, by threatening its use of a veto, and the DUP, by insisting on same standards across the UK, end up forcing the UK into a very soft Brexit that would make trade as easy as possible, it would be a strange turn of events that millions in the UK would be thankful for.

I posted this yesterday.. Pretty glad it turned out to be pretty much what happened.


Edit: This is better than Monday's wording, isn't it? We have the best chance now at maintaining trade with NI And GB?

Bit of a mad post on Reddit...


My favourite bit of the whole thing is that people born in Northern Ireland will still qualify for Irish citizenship - therefore EU citizenship.
This means we'll have people flying from London to Belfast to give birth, and people flying from Belfast to London to have abortions.

Tell me how

Was listening to radio show (Ivan Yates) where they were discussing with a panel if the Island was ready to consider unity between the two parts of the country.
The general sense was that not right now but there was nearly a casual acceptance that that will be a natural destination of this journey within a number of years.

If you were a unionist and were in Ireland today for whatever reason, hearing that on the radio would make your blood boil and give you a strong sense that Ireland's position was heavily influenced by wanting to bring about a united Ireland.

J Mysterio

Fine Gael, Fianna Fail and Sinn Fein all want a United Ireland. The majority of people here do. In recent years people have complained about the potential cost and that would prevent them (sad perspective), but generally speaking, I too feel it is inevitable and think that's the consensus.

I wouldnt have any sympathy with unionists at all.

J Mysterio

There is an article in the UK Independent today which says of a poll of 2000 people in NI, 57.8% would rather a United Ireland in the EU then remain in UK after a hard Brexit. Looked a bit iffy though so didnt post.

Professor Moriarty

The spite from the British press continues unabated. An opinion piece in the Torygraph refers to Vradakar as a "pound shop Macron".

steddyeddy

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

I think the details released today amount to a fudge. From the Irish government's point of view it would appear that a hard border now looks improbable so that is a good outcome. A lot of the detail remains to be thrashed out, however, and it's clear that there are conflicting interpretations over what "alignment" will amount to.

To use a football analogy I think the Irish government have come away from the first leg with a 1-1 result. We got the away goal (no hard border) and if there is a future stalemate then that should be enough to see us through. But it's too early imo to call this an outright win for Dublin as some seem to be suggesting because the DUP did get amendments added that they claim guarantee they will be part of whatever arrangement the UK winds up with. Phase two will tell us whether they are correct in that interpretation.

I said it before and I'll say it again. There's little chance of the UK remaining in the single market and having a soft Brexit. That would mean freedom of movement, something a lot of Brexiters and senior Tories wouldn't want.

blackcard

If I was in the DUP, I would be very concerned. They came out last Monday blaming Ireland for the fact that they had not got sight of the agreement.
The EU and the UK were the two sides trying to come to an agreement on Phase one of discussions about the UK's withdrawal from the EU. The EU kept Ireland fully abreast of discussions. It was up to the UK to keep the DUP informed. Even if the EU or Ireland asked that the DUP be kept in the dark, the UK could simply have said 'No'. The fact that the UK, for whatever reason, chose not to keep the DUP informed should tell the DUP how much they are valued even when they are holding the balance of power.

steddyeddy

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

The spite from the British press continues unabated. An opinion piece in the Torygraph refers to Vradakar as a "pound shop Macron".

From the Telegraph today. Well if we're annoying people of Telegraph/Sun reading caliber then we're doing something right.

United Ireland or united island – that will be the final Brexit outcome which Sinn Fein and the Democratic Unionists will seek respectively following Theresa May’s compromise guarantee there will be no hard border between Northern Ireland and its current EU neighbour, the Republic.

The prospect of a potential hard border – similar to the tough cross-border security measures imposed during the height of the Troubles in the Seventies and Eighties – would have spelt a financial disaster for the Republic’s economy.

This would have left the once proud Celtic Tiger economy of Southern Ireland no better off than a third rate, struggling African republic, and would have inevitably witnessed an emigration from the island not seen since the notorious Great Famine of the mid-19th century

J Mysterio

The final deal is so bizarre in many ways though. In the end, it almost seemed to be more about modernizing the GFA and redefining the relationship with Ireland and the UK than anything else.

The main issues about Currency Union, Single Market, Freedom of Movement, CJEU etc. seemed an afterthought in the race to get a deal done.

Its so bizarre how it took them so long to even look to formulate a position, I feel like they only started last week. It's a bit like having two weeks to do your essay and then staying up till all hours to do it on the final night.

Tell me how

blackcard wrote: »

If I was in the DUP, I would be very concerned. They came out last Monday blaming Ireland for the fact that they had not got sight of the agreement.
The EU and the UK were the two sides trying to come to an agreement on Phase one of discussions about the UK's withdrawal from the EU. The EU kept Ireland fully abreast of discussions. It was up to the UK to keep the DUP informed. Even if the EU or Ireland asked that the DUP be kept in the dark, the UK could simply have said 'No'. The fact that the UK, for whatever reason, chose not to keep the DUP informed should tell the DUP how much they are valued even when they are holding the balance of power.

If the DUP didn't know that before Monday, they probably still haven't figured it out.

steddyeddy

I take it the EU-Japan trade deal was mentioned?

https://www.ft.com/content/b48e4f3a-dc0e-11e7-a039-c64b1c09b482

The EU and Japan have agreed the final pieces of a major free trade agreement — dubbed the “cars-for-cheese” deal by some commentators — saying the accord sends a “clear signal” that global markets remain open.

The deal, agreed in principle in July, covers a combined market of 600m people accounting for approximately 30 per cent of global gross domestic product. Brussels hailed it as a breakthrough for the bloc’s businesses, notably its farmers, saying it was “the most significant and far reaching deal ever concluded by the EU in agri-food trade”.

The timing of the announcement coincided with an agreement in Brussels on the UK’s exit terms from the EU. The anticipated date for the EU-Japan deal to take effect will roughly coincide with Britain’s official exit date from the bloc in March 2019.

The agreement between Brussels and Tokyo, which took four years and 18 rounds of negotiations, will cut tariffs, introduce co-operation on standards and regulations, and open up public procurement markets.

For the EU it will slash Japan’s tariffs on imports of European cheeses and other dairy products, as well as meat and wine. In return, Brussels will end EU import duties on Japan’s automobile sector, an important breakthrough because the bloc is the world’s biggest importer of road vehicles.

Some tariffs will fall to zero immediately when the deal comes into effect, while others will be phased out over a 15-year period. Cecilia Malmström, EU trade commissioner, said the deal would “increase our possibilities of beef exports considerably”.

Jean-Claude Juncker, European Commission president, and Shinzo Abe, Japan’s prime minister, said in a joint statement on Friday that the deal had “considerable economic value” and “strategic importance”.

“With the finalisation of the negotiations, the path is now clear to complete the internal procedures leading to the signature, ratification and full implementation of the agreement,” they said. They also said it demonstrated their commitment “to keeping the world economy working on the basis of free, open and fair markets with clear and transparent rules”.

charlie14

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

The spite from the British press continues unabated. An opinion piece in the Torygraph refers to Vradakar as a "pound shop Macron".

Should that not be a "euro shop Macron"
Then again it is the Telegraph.

steddyeddy

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

As things stand, it seems Gibraltar would drop out of the SM and CU on D-Day, even if the UK remains inside during the transition period:


https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2017/dec/08/brexit-border-eu-theresa-may-juncker-tusk-markets-live?page=with:block-5a2aa2e324e47405c4d71785#block-5a2aa2e324e47405c4d71785

How exactly will Gibraltar survive that?

steddyeddy

J Mysterio wrote: »

They're between a rock and a hard place.

Ha ha yes they are. Something like 98% voted to remain. Is this the UK's way to get rid of colonies they no longer want?

Rjd2

J Mysterio wrote: »

There is an article in the UK Independent today which says of a poll of 2000 people in NI, 57.8% would rather a United Ireland in the EU then remain in UK after a hard Brexit. Looked a bit iffy though so didnt post.

For what its worth, the Indy is drivel these days, would have it on the same level as the mail, canary, express for quality control.

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I honestly expected May to have called an election by now. She's succeeded in kicking the NI border can down the road but unless she can remove the DUP yoke round her neck there's nothing she can do except crash out with no deal.

Brexit is not something she believes in strongly either way tbh. She like most of the party will always prioritise staying in power thus calling an election would be absolutely suicidal. The dream is May somehow gets through this steps down and her replacement has a year or two to get to the grips with the job, unlikely as we have still much more tougher work to do with brexit, but calling an election is the last thing she would do.

J Mysterio

Rjd2 wrote: »

For what its worth, the Indy is drivel these days, would have it on the same level as the mail, canary, express for quality control.

I've found their coverage of Brexit to be excellent.

Dont be at yourself

That Japan deal is interesting, in that on paper it would seem to adversely effect one of Germany's biggest industries (auto) and benefit two of Ireland's (dairy, beef).

Samaris

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

Can someone lay this bag of snakes in a straight line for me. What is this deal, are UK staying in the Custom Union with free trade and travel for Europeans?

The deal so far is that the UK will remain in regulatory alignment with the EU in areas of north-south co-operation in Ireland. They're not in the single market or customs union, they are choosing to adhere to the same rules as the EU in terms of regulation. It is likely that they will find there are more such areas if they want to trade with the EU. In the case of a no deal, that stands. At least in theory. If it all goes pear-shaped, the existence of the agreement would probably be pretty convincing when it came to the WTO disputes.

The UK pointed to which commitments they were keeping and it adds up to around the E36-9b mark.

EU citizens keep the European court as a recourse for eight years, but British citizens lose the freedom of movement access, and are limited to their settled country.

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

Oh I agree, Westminister will ultimately do what it takes to protect it's own interests.

However if the unionist veto is cast aside and they are abandoned, then you're looking at the reemergence of conflict - violent conflict at that. Abandoning the veto means the end of the Good Friday Agreement.

The DUP can no longer unilaterally use that veto by a petition of concern since their loss of seats in January, so it may be a moot point for them. Northern Irish people don't seem to have much agreement with the DUP and the only other parties that were pro-Leave in the first place were TUV and People Before Profit Alliance (one seat each).

selectamatic

steddyeddy wrote: »

I take it the EU-Japan trade deal was mentioned?

There has been some talk of it in the media alright it's quite coincidental really that such a deal should be completed during brexit.

Like the EU now, Japan for many years particularly during the 80's and 90's was seen as the bogeyman by the UK. Killing the home grown car industry among other manufacturing industries with superior and often cheaper alternatives. And similarly to nowadays the British media made sure to stick the boot in and stir up us VS them sentiment at every opportunity.

Dont be at yourself wrote: »

That Japan deal is interesting, in that on paper it would seem to adversely effect one of Germany's biggest industries (auto) and benefit two of Ireland's (dairy, beef).

Germany is coming under pressure due their over reliance on diesel engineering during the last 10 years. Deals between German marques and Japanese marques are already afoot for the sharing of hybrid and electric technology so in effect this deal may not be too bad for the German car industry either as it may make such deals easier in the future.

An Ciarraioch

J Mysterio wrote: »

There is an article in the UK Independent today which says of a poll of 2000 people in NI, 57.8% would rather a United Ireland in the EU then remain in UK after a hard Brexit. Looked a bit iffy though so didnt post.

A somewhat garbled account of the Lucid Talk poll mentioned in the Examiner and Slugger O'Toole yesterday - the 57.8% is how many NI residents want to remain in the Single Market. That said, a surprisingly high 48% favour a United Ireland in the event of a Hard Brexit - most notably, 57% of "Others":

https://sluggerotoole.com/2017/12/07/lucid-talk-poll-shows-support-for-special-status-strong-support-for-the-dup-sinn-fein/

FrancieBrady

Don't know about anyone else, but I'm feeling rather good about being Irish and European. I think we set down a marker this week that we are ultimately a secure nation willing to look to the interests of everyone on the island. And we are confident about who we are. The vitriol and brickbats being laughed at rather than raged at.

The future is of our own making. Bring on Round 2!

Tell me how

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Don't know about anyone else, but I'm feeling rather good about being Irish and European. I think we set down a marker this week that we are ultimately a secure nation willing to look to the interests of everyone on the island. And we are confident about who we are. The vitriol and brickbats being laughed at rather than raged at.

The future is of our own making. Bring on Round 2!

Yes but one swallow does not make a summer.

You would like if Irish TD's adopted a consistent sensible approach with national politics. Brexit so far is like we are behaving ourselves because A we know it's serious and B we don't want to embarrass ourselves in front of the Europeans.