Brexit discussion thread III

Samaris

It was a bit inevitable that Spain was going to be making noises - and aren't they just gleeful at Britain having pretty much dropped the ball on Gibraltar (it really just appeared to be forgotten about, despite the efforts of the Gibraltar leadership). Spain is rubbing it in in a way that seems as calculated to piss off the people living there as Rajoy's approach to Catalonia. Seems to be Rajoy's government's approach to everything, although two arseish leaderships banging off each other would be rather funny if the dickwaving contest didn't impact so many people.

Gibraltar's between a rock and a hard place, pun not really intended.

CelticRambler

steddyeddy wrote: »

One Spanish commentator described Gibraltar belonging to the British as akin to the Isle of Wight belonging to the Spain. It's not sustainable.

Or "Les Iles Normandes" off the coast of France belonging to the British? Better known to anglophones as the Channel Islands, and they've managed to sustain themselves for quite a while now! :pac:

If the Tories weren't hamstrung by the DUP, then a "special status" arrangement for the two UK jurisdictions that have a land border with an EU state would be a quick and easy solution to many of their red-line problems.

At least until Scotland swaps one Union for another.

WomanSkirtFan8

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

A new Panelbase poll puts support for Scottish independence at 49% - how high will it go by 2019?

My guess would probably be, depending on how, brexit pans, out in reality, it could possibly end up between 80 and 90 per cent.

Nody

steddyeddy wrote: »

The Telegraph reports that Gibraltar accuses the the EU of treating their citizens shamefully.

Let's examine that statement in light of what happened. ~98% of people in Gibraltar voted to remain in the EU as they realise it's important for their economy. That desire was ignored and no special arrangement was sought for Gibraltar by the British government. Now the EU says that Spain will have some say over the transition arrangement and apparently that's not acceptable to the people of Gibraltar. I feel for the people living on the rock but it's Britain and not the EU they should be angry at.

The EU is looking after it's member states and the UK isn't. It's that simple.

To be fair though who'd you like to look at your complaint if you were in Gibraltar? Theresa "I'm rudderless, powerless and forgot Gibraltar exist" May or EU? Then again let's be honest here, Gibraltar outside of EU even with a great TD is so royally ****ed it will not matter as it's main reason to exist was as a gambling tax haven for virtual casinos and the like. Now slap on a hard border, tolls to be charged for any imports ('cause UK) etc. and they are going to have a hard time outside of die hards to have any people remaining.

backspin.

sink wrote: »

It could not be called 'United Kingdom' anymore as wales is not a Kingdom in it's own right, Wales is legally a part of the Kingdom on England.

If the English are being generous they could adopt the title 'The Kingdom of England and Wales', but the default name for the remaining rump of the UK would be 'The Kingdom of England'. It would be entirely up to the 95% majority of English voters to decide the name of the country that Wales would belong to. Giving Wales such prominence in the countries official title would ruffle a few feathers in places like Cornwall with it's distinct ethnocultural character and Yorkshire which is almost the same size as Wales and has a higher population.

Wales should be amalgamated into England and renamed County Wales.

Capt'n Midnight

flaneur wrote: »

The Gibraltarians have two choices - be in the UK or be in the EU. There's nothing stopping Gibraltar being a micro country and EU member in its own right and cooperate with Spain in a way that the nationality no longer matter.

They have two choices.

To remain in the UK or to try to leave the UK.


Even if the UK lets them go there is no guarantee the EU would let them in. For a start as an independent nation would they meet any of the criteria as a candidate for membership ? At which point the failback position might be to unify with Spain in a Hong Kong deal or as an autonomous region, and that's probably wishful thinking.

Odhinn

flaneur wrote: »

It's starting to degenerate into a debate that's nearly as logical as the Northern Irish flags protests - passionate discussions about symbolism and national allegiances that ultimately need to nothing but jingoism, animosity, economic self-harm and general chaos.

.

O yeah.

"May divided domestic opinion on Friday when she confirmed the return of navy travel documents, which she called an expression of “independence and sovereignty” that reflected “citizenship of a proud, great nation”."

"The government has said blue passports will mean enhanced freedom for Britons, but EU officials have said they could spell travel delays and extra paperwork because of diminished travel rights post-Brexit."
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/dec/23/eu-guy-verhofstadt-dismisses-mays-claim-blue-passports-are-sovereignty-statement

There is something rather "Yes Minister" with regards to speaking about "enhanced freedom" while leaving a free travel area of over 20 odd states.

breatheme

RE: Gibraltar
They can't exist as an independent microstate because the Treaty of Utrecht states that in the event that the UK gives up its claim on Gibraltar, it automatically goes back to Spain.

flaneur

They don't need to give up their claim to it. They just need to spin it out as a crown protectorate.

Nody

Well if you ever thought the lack of knowledge was limited to May and the top leaders here's yet more proof it's across the board:

On BBC Radio 4’s Any Questions?

The question, from Sally Baldwin, was: “Does the panel consider that the new blue passport will compensate us for the loss of the right to travel, live and work freely in 27 European countries?

The MP (Kwasi Kwarteng), who campaigned for Leave, said: “I don’t actually think it is a price that we’re going to have to pay.

“In a previous life, I used to do a lot of work in Switzerland. As you will know, Switzerland is not a member of the EU. Swiss businessmen can travel around Europe just as easily as British businessmen, frankly.

“And if you are observant you will see that there is an EEA/EU line, there are lots of ways we can be accommodated in this process.”

Yea; Switzerland which is part of Schengen is a great example to show how it will be post Brexit with UK as a third party country...

murphaph

Nody wrote: »

Well if you ever thought the lack of knowledge was limited to May and the top leaders here's yet more proof it's across the board:
Yea; Switzerland which is part of Schengen is a great example to show how it will be post Brexit with UK as a third party country...

It's getting really tiresome listening to the likes of him use Switzerland and Norway as examples of how easily things can operate whilst completely ignoring that both countries accept clear UK red lines like FoM. Are they thick or just disingenuous?

Capt'n Midnight

Update on Data Protection harmonisation after Brexit, you know the stuff the service industry kind depends on.
https://www.theregister.co.uk/2017/12/21/matt_hancock_gdpr_lords_eu_home_affairs_sub_committee/

"There are other alternatives – but an alternative that doesn't provide for the uninterrupted, unhindered free flow of data won't be as good,"

So there isn't actually a Plan B mechanism, the peers pressed.

"There's a series of alternative options," the minster smiled knowingly. But they aren't as good as unhindered free flows of data.

flaneur

murphaph wrote: »

It's getting really tiresome listening to the likes of him use Switzerland and Norway as examples of how easily things can operate whilst completely ignoring that both countries accept clear UK red lines like FoM. Are they thick or just disingenuous?

Sadly it's a bit of both. A mix of ignorance and wilful ignorance.

Peregrinus

flaneur wrote: »

They don't need to give up their claim to it. They just need to spin it out as a crown protectorate.

This would be more Brexiter cakeism. Either the UK is sovereign over Gibraltar, in which case Gibraltar can’t join the EU off its own bat; the UK has to do it for them, or the UK isn’t sovereign over Gibraltar, in which case per the Treaty of Utrecht it reverts to Spain.

Peregrinus

Samaris wrote: »

It was a bit inevitable that Spain was going to be making noises - and aren't they just gleeful at Britain having pretty much dropped the ball on Gibraltar (it really just appeared to be forgotten about, despite the efforts of the Gibraltar leadership). . . .

Pretty much this. There’s a striking contrast between the way the EU has been aware of, and attentive to, Ireland’s special interests and needs arising out of Brexit, and the way the UK has been pissing all over Gibraltar, right from the get-go. In the UK, Gibraltar has featured only in some hairy-chested dick-waving sh1te about war with Spain, but absolutely nothing whatsoever has been done to address Gibraltar’s concerns about Brexit. In the routine that is now depressingly familiar, the EU has done more thinking about this than the UK has, even though it is in fact the responsibility of the UK as the sovereign power. The UK is far more concerned about boasting of its sovereignty than it is about exercising it.

Brexit in a nutshell, really.

Jim2007

Nody wrote: »

Well if you ever thought the lack of knowledge was limited to May and the top leaders here's yet more proof it's across the board:
Yea; Switzerland which is part of Schengen is a great example to show how it will be post Brexit with UK as a third party country...

Actually it is a lot more than that. Switzerland is not third country as such. And while we are not in the single market or the customs union, we accept the FMOP rules, ECJ rulings on market issues and contribute to the EU structural fund. As a result we have the exact same rights to live and work in the EU/EEA area as EU citizens. And of course EU citizens have full rights to live and work in Switzerland.

However the EU does not negotiate on behalf of Switzerland and so the UK will be a third country after BREXIT no matter what agreement is reached. Consequently they will loose their rights in Switzerland and it is unlikely that they will be treated any differently to other third countries such as the US, Canada etc going forward.....

Samaris

And they're not going to get another horribly complicated Swiss deal offered or through either.

Even if they did, they wouldn't like it. Jim probably knows the details better, but I believe there is a clause that allows for automatically adopting new legislation and while the Swiss can referendum against it, if they refuse one part of the deal, that sector is ruled out. Something like that happened with the post service. So it's costly to decide that X ruling is too far, especially if it was in a vital area for Britain.

It was yourself living in Switzerland, Jim? Is the above more or less accurate or have I confused Norway in there?

Bigus

I have been following this interesting Brexit thread on boards for ages and find it most informative and intellectually aware ,so much so that I have refrained from making any simple comment so far.

However I would at this stage like to thank the regular contributors, and a happy Christmas to all.

Over the last few months I see the genuine concern,by educated irish people for the UK and Brexit like fear for disillusioned relative set out to harm themselves.

My little analogy on the psychology of Brexit for the Irish.

I would say Irsh people feel like the grown up children of an ex. Alcoholic father, who are now successful adults with there own businesses and families, who see Britain and Brexit as their once reformed alcoholic father now off the wagon , back on the piss , and making a balls of the once successful family business by making totally rash incompetent decisions,been advised by other drinking buddies with worse advice and encouragement And no matter how sage the advice from family they purposely do the opposite of that good advice to the detriment of all.
However the grown up children are well educated and established , and are well capable of getting on in life , finding new relationships to sustain them in the sober and coherent EU.
Later as they watch their alcoholic father decline into eventual liver failure years down the line , they get no solace in "I told you so"


Further Brexit Ireland, insight in a Free Article in IT about Brexit breaking Ireland UK interdependence.

https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/brexit-breaks-delicate-interdependence-between-ireland-and-uk-1.3335532
Quotes below
Ireland’s relations with Britain have gone through an historical cycle of dependence, independence and interdependence which is now being replicated by Britain’s changing relations with the European Union.

“Mutual self-interest would make the people in these two islands, if both were independent, the closest possible allies in a moment of real danger to both,” de Valera said in the interview.

Enzokk

Seems that Nigel Farage is not liked (unsurprisingly) at the EU. They don't mind pointing out his idiotic arguments regarding Brexit and the UK passport colour.

https://twitter.com/guyverhofstadt/status/944475267111833600

Jim2007

Samaris wrote: »

And they're not going to get another horribly complicated Swiss deal offered or through either.

Even if they did, they wouldn't like it. Jim probably knows the details better, but I believe there is a clause that allows for automatically adopting new legislation and while the Swiss can referendum against it, if they refuse one part of the deal, that sector is ruled out. Something like that happened with the post service. So it's costly to decide that X ruling is too far, especially if it was in a vital area for Britain.

It was yourself living in Switzerland, Jim? Is the above more or less accurate or have I confused Norway in there?

At this stage both sides recognized that the agreements (over 100) with their interdependency are overly complex, but it is too late to turn back. The EU have stated that they will never enter into such agreements again.

Capt'n Midnight

Switzerland ? Just more wishful thinking that ignores history.

The Swiss got temporary concessions because at the time everyone, including them, thought they going to be full blown members shortly.

Exact opposite of the UK's position.

First Up

The UK's self delusion is almost comical at this stage.

They still think they are negotiating from a position of strength whereas the reality is they are being ushered towards the door and told not to forget their hat. Europe has moved on.

Tell me how

First Up wrote:

The UK's self delusion is almost comical at this stage.

They still think they are negotiating from a position of strength whereas the reality is they are being ushered towards the door and told not to forget their hat. Europe has moved on.

Europe, and Ireland, should still want to see a good relationship with trade and common security views when this is all done, but they're not making it easy to consider a positive relationship with.

If Ireland offered a supportive hand right now, the Brexiteers would likely grab it and say, "look it, Ireland is our b*tch".

It must be so demoralising for the remainers and even the somewhat balanced leave advocates.

I didn't think it was possible for a single personality type to be evident in a national body but this is close to seeing a spoiled 20 something who has lived their life off Daddy's money finally taking over the business and not having a clue how to do it.

Charles Babbage

flaneur wrote: »

Sadly it's a bit of both. A mix of ignorance and wilful ignorance.

These politicians know rightly, they also know that ignorance is widespread among Brexit supporters, so they can spin bollix.

Jim2007

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Switzerland ? Just more wishful thinking that ignores history.

The Swiss got temporary concessions because at the time everyone, including them, thought they going to be full blown members shortly.

Exact opposite of the UK's position.

The bilateral was negotiated after the Swiss rejected EU membership. But in practical terms something had to be done on both sides. On the one side Switzerland is bang in the middle of the EU and needs to import almost all of it's raw materials via the EU. At the same time Switzerland controls the main north-south routes through the alps.

And of course the mentality is completely different - we recognise that we are a small country and have a long history of finding compromises and making things work.

An Ciarraioch

Farage to attend an "Irexit conference" at the RDS in February, with an ex-Renua councillor, John Waters, and Cormac Lucey - a wonder they haven't added Kinsella and Bassett for the full set:

https://mobile.twitter.com/jamescharity14/status/942856646409236480

steddyeddy

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Farage to attend an "Irexit conference" at the RDS in February, with an ex-Renua councillor, John Waters, and Cormac Lucey - a wonder they haven't added Kinsella and Bassett for the full set:

https://mobile.twitter.com/jamescharity14/status/942856646409236480

I'll be back in Ireland in Feb. I have to go to this and ask Farage a few questions. Don't forget this is a man that was never elected once.

Nate--IRL--

There may have been a thread on that confernace in After Hours, that may or may not be responsible for it being completely booked out within an hour or two :pac:

Nate

Odhinn

steddyeddy wrote: »

I'll be back in Ireland in Feb. I have to go to this and ask Farage a few questions. Don't forget this is a man that was never elected once.

No questions for you, it seems.
"This event is sponsored by the EFDD Group in the European Parliament and is open only to supporters of a Irish Exit from the European Union. Unwelcome interjections from the audience may result in removal from the event."
https://www.ticketsource.co.uk/boxoffice/terms/qouLJRTaAJkT

Consonata

Odhinn wrote: »

No questions for you, it seems.
"This event is sponsored by the EFDD Group in the European Parliament and is open only to supporters of a Irish Exit from the European Union. Unwelcome interjections from the audience may result in removal from the event."
https://www.ticketsource.co.uk/boxoffice/terms/qouLJRTaAJkT

The need for an echo chamber is real seemingly.

Odhinn

Consonata wrote: »

The need for an echo chamber is real seemingly.

It may be as much to protect J Waters from hard questions on a rake of other topics, but sure who knows.

murphaph

In Ireland there is no taboo about reminding people where we'd be without our membership of the EU. There's also no imperial past to hark back to. Irexit is a really tough sell.

flaneur

I think they may be overestimating the Irish clamour for leaving the EU. It's a very very different political and media landscape.

Capt'n Midnight

https://www.ticketsource.co.uk/irexit
50+ tickets available

Costs 50p for text

Nate--IRL--

Hah, they got rid of the email option

Nate

Capt'n Midnight

Nigel Farage claims supporting Brexit has cost him a knighthood and denial is a river in Egypt.

How is this even news ??


Smug remainers who downplayed Britain PROVED WRONG: UK top of world in economy figures It's the Express.

Meanwhile in the real world http://www.bbc.com/news/business-42432516

Earlier this month, SMMT car registration figures showed that the number of cars sold in the UK fell for the eighth consecutive month in November, declining by 11.2%.
...
Production for the home market has fallen by 9%, while production of vehicles for export is flat.

steddyeddy

If it's an echo chamber I'm not going. There's nothing in the British Brexit debacle that's making me jealous we're not leaving too.

Vronsky

Peregrinus wrote: »

Pretty much this. There’s a striking contrast between the way the EU has been aware of, and attentive to, Ireland’s special interests and needs arising out of Brexit, and the way the UK has been pissing all over Gibraltar, right from the get-go. In the UK, Gibraltar has featured only in some hairy-chested dick-waving sh1te about war with Spain, but absolutely nothing whatsoever has been done to address Gibraltar’s concerns about Brexit. In the routine that is now depressingly familiar, the EU has done more thinking about this than the UK has, even though it is in fact the responsibility of the UK as the sovereign power. The UK is far more concerned about boasting of its sovereignty than it is about exercising it.

Brexit in a nutshell, really.

Spain is gleeful because making noise over Gibraltar has always proved to be a useful unifying distraction when there are domestic political crises.

Enzokk

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Nigel Farage claims supporting Brexit has cost him a knighthood and denial is a river in Egypt.

How is this even news ??


Smug remainers who downplayed Britain PROVED WRONG: UK top of world in economy figures It's the Express.

Meanwhile in the real world http://www.bbc.com/news/business-42432516

The devil is in the detail in that Express story. Firstly, Japan is spelled as Jaoan in the article. Neither the writer or the editor or anyone else has seen this and thought it may be good to change it.

It means the growth of the UK economy in 2016 dwarfed that of other G7 nations including the US at 1.5 percent, France at 1.1 percent and Jaoan at 1 per cent.

Then it says the UK is doing well compared to other G7 nations. Which is great, but it is worse than predicted. Also there is this little detail in there,

Following the UK’s split with the European Union, firms that are confident about the economic outlook of the country are in the majority by 28 percent.

This is the highest level this optimism has reached in five months.

Research shows 48 percent are upbeat about their businesses.

However, only 23 percent predict increased workforces in 2018 – down from 28 percent in November.

This is for the backbone of the UK economy, SME's. They are more upbeat, yet less than a quarter of them predict they will hire more staff.

flaneur

Details.

1. Why focus on 2016 data?

2. Brexit hasn't happened yet, so currently UK firms have access to EU markets with significantly devalued £ which is giving them an artificial pre brexit export boost.

3. The FTSE 100 is almost exclusively looking at companies that trade globally in USD or Eur. Falling sterling automatically increases their numerical value. It's arithmetic rather than growth.

The Express has a tendency to jump to any kind of positive conclusion on Brexit.
There were a whole series of articles about GBP "soaring" because it fluttered up a tiny bit, despite an overall trend of s significant devaluation and pattern of instability:

Sand

Nody wrote: »

Well if you ever thought the lack of knowledge was limited to May and the top leaders here's yet more proof it's across the board

I think its clear there is a deep seated ignorance through British media, industry, politics and the civil service. I've seen some commentary to the effect that the British civil service is this cunning, well oiled machine ably staffed with Sir Humphreys who may roll their eyes at the nonsense but will manipulate their foolish ministers to get the right result in the end. But that's a myth too. The performances of British civil servants when brought out to brief Westminster committees on Brexit hasn't been much better than that of politicians themselves. And the less said about those impact/analysis papers written by the British civil service the better.

I remember finding it difficult to believe a woman as stupid as Melanie Phillips could lurk amongst the British elite without being discovered and cast out. But it seems she would fit in quite well.

First Up

flaneur wrote: »

The Express has a tendency to jump to any kind of positive conclusion on Brexit.
There were a whole series of articles about GBP "soaring" because it fluttered up a tiny bit, despite an overall trend of s significant devaluation and pattern of instability:

The Express is just preaching to the converted - giving its readers what they want to hear. Not to be confused with journalism or serious analysis.

Nate--IRL--

Sand wrote: »

I think its clear there is a deep seated ignorance through British media, industry, politics and the civil service. I've seen some commentary to the effect that the British civil service is this cunning, well oiled machine ably staffed with Sir Humphreys who may roll their eyes at the nonsense but will manipulate their foolish ministers to get the right result in the end. But that's a myth too. The performances of British civil servants when brought out to brief Westminster committees on Brexit hasn't been much better than that of politicians themselves. And the less said about those impact/analysis papers written by the British civil service the better.
.

That's completely unfair, they weren't written by the Civil Servants, they were copy/pasted from Wikipedia directly, by the Civil servants.

https://politicalscrapbook.net/2017/12/proof-that-part-of-brexit-impact-assessment-was-actually-copied-and-pasted-from-wikipedia/

Nate

Billy86

Tell me how wrote: »

I didn't think it was possible for a single personality type to be evident in a national body but this is close to seeing a spoiled 20 something who has lived their life off Daddy's money finally taking over the business and not having a clue how to do it.

Except with the caveat that the '20-something' is considerably older than that on average, and if there is one thing they love more than spoiled temper tantrums while they ruin their country, it's complaining that 20-somethings are spoiled and ruining their country.

embraer170

Switzerland's President calls for referendum on EU relationship


http://www.dw.com/en/switzerlands-president-doris-leuthard-calls-for-referendum-on-eu-relationship/a-41923697

Leuthard said she understood Swiss suspicion towards the EU, but said there is no alternative to reaching an agreement with the bloc that generates about 66 percent of Swiss trade. "We can strengthen the cooperation with India and China, but the EU remains central," she said. "We need a mechanism and regulated relationship with the EU that would also prevent political games like we are having at the moment."

At least some sense, unlike what keeps coming out of the UK.

Nody

embraer170 wrote: »

At least some sense, unlike what keeps coming out of the UK.

I'll expect them to end up voting no though which will make things interesting (see the previous vote on Swiss priority for jobs which is still under review by EU even in it's watered down form).

First Up

Nody wrote: »

embraer170 wrote: »

At least some sense, unlike what keeps coming out of the UK.

I'll expect them to end up voting no though which will make things interesting (see the previous vote on Swiss priority for jobs which is still under review by EU even in it's watered down form).

Depends what they are voting on.

BKtje

I'd also expect a no vote (if voting on EU membership). Discussed the EU with my Swiss father in law recently including a lot if misconceptions that he had about it which I wanted to put right. He was genuinely interested and was an interesting debate after which he decided to go research it properly. I'd say he'd be similar to your average Swiss voter.

Like the UK there are a lot of mis understandings about the EU here and couple that with the strong sense of self that the Swiss have I'd really expect a fairly significant no vote.

joeysoap

Don’t think it’s about membership , more a new relationship, and how closely aligned Switzerland wants to be to the EU?

I have no doubt that because of the UK leaving the EU is going to tighten/adjust the rules a bit for clarity. Being a member has huge benefits that might not have been spelled out/understood clearly before, and now it’s up to the EU to start playing up the benefits of membership to the citizens of the EU.

Sam Russell

joeysoap wrote: »

Don’t think it’s about membership , more a new relationship, and how closely aligned Switzerland wants to be to the EU?

I have no doubt that because of the UK leaving the EU is going to tighten/adjust the rules a bit for clarity. Being a member has huge benefits that might not have been spelled out/understood clearly before, and now it’s up to the EU to start playing up the benefits of membership to the citizens of the EU.

I think the EU should start a 'What has the EU ever done for us?' type of promotion.

ECJ make decisions for the whole of the EU about sometimes niche concerns - for example the case of the footballer out of contract now negotiates for himself, strengthening his power to get a good deal. There are many examples.

The EU has on occasion fought for the consumer as in roaming charges - not always 100% but still better than before. The 'Open Skies' has brought us very cheap airline travel and broken the grip of flag carriers.

There are many many examples not shouted out by the EU, but should be.

They should also give more attention to explaining how the EU is structured and how it is supposed to work - particularly how they interpret 'democracy' and how they are tackling 'Democratic Deficit'. And explain 'Competency' and 'Subsidiarity' and how they affect the normal EU citizen.

It should all help to make the EU better.