Brexit discussion thread III

murphaph

mickmac76 wrote: »

If we end up with a hard border in Ireland due to Brexit would the EU be willing to or required to help us pay for some of the costs of additional border posts between us and the North? After all we got rid of them due to the single market and couldn't foresee ever needing them again and they will be required to protect the integrity of the EU single market if the UK crashes out without a deal. Also could EU funds be requested to improve our ports if additional checking is required for goods coming from or going to the UK?

I would say yes to all these but hopefully we will need none of them.

flaneur

First Up wrote: »

Le Havre is further east than Cherbourg.

I actually meant Brest. Half asleep.

There are very good possibilities of connecting onwards from Breton ports either by rail or road and if the business is there EU Brexit divorce funds could help get some facilities in at both ends.

We need to be looking at alternatives to going through the UK. Even from an environmental point of view, it might reduce CO2 emissions if done right.

flaneur

murphaph wrote: »

I would say yes to all these but hopefully we will need none of them.

Yes they most likely would - it falls under Frontex’s remit.

Sam Russell

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

The lovely bit for the UK is that they simply don't have enough land for existing queues. White cliffs of Dover and all that.

https://www.dfdsseaways.co.uk/customer-service/dover-dunkirk/dover-travel-disruptionAnd when that's full - If junction 8 to junction 11 reaches capacity, Highways England will use Manston airfield to park Port of Dover freight.


Same in Wales except the volume of traffic is now much higher than the last time there were controls. And land ain't cheap in Dublin Port (it's all artificial) or Dun Laoghaire.
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-41497922


For stuff that's not time critical there's this
https://afloat.ie/port-news/dublin-port/item/37536-world-s-largest-ro-ro-ferry-to-be-introduced-on-dublin-routes-linking-mainland-europe

But for time critical stuff like fresh food shipping via the UK is the preferred route, unless the ports get log jammed ,in which case everyone looses as the product isn't worth as much.
https://www.politico.eu/article/cargo-food-production-producers-brexit-burns-irelands-british-bridge-to-eu-markets/

One of the advantages of missing out the UK is the total absence of any customs checks (and therefor delay).

If the difference of say Athlone to Paris was 10 hrs by going the direct sea route, it would be tolerable. Add the other advantage of not requiring a driver to go from Holyhead to Dover, or not even having a driver on board the vessel at all, the the additional cost would be minimal. Sean can deliver the truck to Rosslare and Pierre can pick it up, having dropped off the return load onto the ferry.

Bigus

If I was a pro Brexiter British national , I'd be glad to have all those transient Irish truxks and traffic off my British roads . Leading to less congestion and pollution , so this could be a small win for Brexit !

flaneur

Bear in mind this is two way traffic.

A lot of Irish and multinational retailers are looking at options to integrate into the continental supply chains. So billions of Euro worth of European goods may replace billions of euro of UK originated goods.

Both Irish exporters and European exporters need this infrastructure.

Also bear in mind that creating havoc for Irish trucks in the UK would be creating havoc for EU trucks and the EU would likely respond in kind.

Capt'n Midnight

Interesting. Looks like subsidising the North might be politically acceptable down here now. Interesting times. The DUP should be paying attention because offloading NI saves the UK govt billions and lots of hassle.

https://sluggerotoole.com/2017/12/28/poll-records-another-jump-in-support-for-irish-unity/

Respondents were asked the following question;

If it cost the Irish government €9 billion per annum for Northern Ireland to unite with the Republic of Ireland, how would you vote in relation to a referendum on a United Ireland?

In favour-60% (+10% since March)

Against-40% (-10% since March)

Sam Russell

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Interesting. Looks like subsidising the North might be politically acceptable down here now. Interesting times. The DUP should be paying attention because offloading NI saves the UK govt billions and lots of hassle.

https://sluggerotoole.com/2017/12/28/poll-records-another-jump-in-support-for-irish-unity/

It saves the UK more than the net cost of the EU. Will the Tories start a NIexit now?

steddyeddy

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Interesting. Looks like subsidising the North might be politically acceptable down here now. Interesting times. The DUP should be paying attention because offloading NI saves the UK govt billions and lots of hassle.

https://sluggerotoole.com/2017/12/28/poll-records-another-jump-in-support-for-irish-unity/

The Express are reporting it as "the end of the UK". I'd be surprised if this doesn't lead to increased support in the North for a United Ireland.

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.express.co.uk/news/politics/897526/brexit-irish-border-poll-united-ireland/amp

flaneur

Well The Express does love to stir the pot.

ancapailldorcha

flaneur wrote: »

Well The Express does love to stir the pot.

Less of the one-liners please.

embraer170

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

But for time critical stuff like fresh food shipping via the UK is the preferred route, unless the ports get log jammed ,in which case everyone looses as the product isn't worth as much.
https://www.politico.eu/article/cargo-food-production-producers-brexit-burns-irelands-british-bridge-to-eu-markets/

Truck drivers get their rest hours while on the ferry to France. That reduces the difference a little.

joeysoap

steddyeddy wrote: »

The Express are reporting it as "the end of the UK". I'd be surprised if this doesn't lead to increased support in the North for a United Ireland.

I just love the Excess. Lookup ‘Brexit latest’ and check out those headlines (usually in capitals) BRILLIANT, SLAMS, SOARS, GRABS, etc etc when headlining articles on Brexit,IDS, JRM, among others (Davis, Fox)

Priceless, but then they are preaching to the converted .

Junkyard Tom

Bigus wrote: »

If I was a pro Brexiter British national , I'd be glad to have all those transient Irish truxks and traffic off my British roads . Leading to less congestion and pollution , so this could be a small win for Brexit !

I think this might be the first tangible Brexit benefit that has been posited in over 22,000 posts.

Congratulations Sir.

Junkyard Tom

Just tinkered around with Google maps and it gives just over 13 hrs from Dublin port to Paris by car.

Using https://sea-distances.org/ to calculate times from Rosslare to Cherbourg and google maps on to Paris it returns 12hrs by sea at 25 knots and another 3hrs 45 mins by road to Paris.

So approx 13 hours by the through-Britain route and 16 hours avoiding it. I'm not sure if the cost of the ferry would be offset by the cost of driving through Britain but I don't believe it would be overly disruptive to route away from there.

The less dependent on Britain we become the better for our economic security anyway.

Peregrinus

mickmac76 wrote: »

If we end up with a hard border in Ireland due to Brexit would the EU be willing to or required to help us pay for some of the costs of additional border posts between us and the North? After all we got rid of them due to the single market and couldn't foresee ever needing them again and they will be required to protect the integrity of the EU single market if the UK crashes out without a deal. Also could EU funds be requested to improve our ports if additional checking is required for goods coming from or going to the UK?

This is not really relevant. If there is a hard border in Ireland, the cost of providing the customs posts will be a tiny, tiny part of the total economic cost to this country in terms of trade disruption and trade barriers. And that’s before we reckon with the political impact of undermining the Good Friday Agreement, and the downstream economic costs of that.

Enzokk

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

I think this might be the first tangible Brexit benefit that has been posited in over 22,000 posts.

Congratulations Sir.

Less traffic and blue passports. Those are the two new benefits that Brexit will bring as far as I can see.

Jim2007

Bigus wrote: »

If I was a pro Brexiter British national , I'd be glad to have all those transient Irish truxks and traffic off my British roads . Leading to less congestion and pollution , so this could be a small win for Brexit !

Well yes, but that could have been solved in the same way as we do in Switzerland, put the trucks on the train. At my local train station you can often sees rows of Irish trucks shoot by on trains bound for Italy! The trains are equipped with sleepers and a restaurant - as at least one driver is required to travel with each truck.

Bigus

Enzokk wrote: »

Less traffic and blue passports. Those are the two new benefits that Brexit will bring as far as I can see.

I've been stuck in British traffic , and mark my words,any reduction would be a considerable win , for the locals.

Tell me how

Bigus wrote:

I've been stuck in British traffic , and mark my words,any reduction would be a considerable win , for the locals.

I don't know how uplifting it would be to realise there's less traffic on the road because the economy has tanked.

Peregrinus

Tell me how wrote: »

I don't know how uplifting it would be to realise there's less traffic on the road because the economy has tanked.

This. The reduction in traffic because Irish/Continental goods are no longer being transhipped via the UK will be modest compared to the reduction in trucks on the road carrying British goods to the Continent, or Continental goods to British consumers, if the British choose a hard border.

Sam Russell

Peregrinus wrote: »

This. The reduction in traffic because Irish/Continental goods are no longer being transhipped via the UK will be modest compared to the reduction in trucks on the road carrying British goods to the Continent, or Continental goods to British consumers, if the British choose a hard border.

Well, following the Red White and Blue Brexit promised by TM, the trucks that used to deliver car parts to the various foreign owned car assembly factories and now do not, will be a welcome reduction in traffic for the locals. Particularly for those workers that used to work at those assembly plants, and now have nothing to do but watch the traffic.

Sometimes wishes tend to backfire - 'Be careful what you wish for' - Old Chinese saying.

Capt'n Midnight

Enzokk wrote: »

Less traffic and blue passports. Those are the two new benefits that Brexit will bring as far as I can see.

What has Brexit got to do with blue passports ?

They didn't even have to change the colour in the first place.


Less traffic means less taxes, excise and tolls collected so that's not a win-win.

mickoneill31

Tell me how wrote: »

I don't know how uplifting it would be to realise there's less traffic on the road because the economy has tanked.

Yeah. In the recession a few years ago I was never delayed on the m50 when I was going to work. I don't think we'd ask for the recession back to improve traffic.

Enzokk

Bigus wrote: »

I've been stuck in British traffic , and mark my words,any reduction would be a considerable win , for the locals.

Fair enough, but I don't see how traffic is the fault of the EU though. Did the EU legislate that there will be less spending on infrastructure to cause more traffic? I class that problem the same as NHS spending and overcrowding. Sure the influx of people from the EU cause there to be a strain on services (more people will cause that to happen), but the underlying problem is that the UK government made decisions that caused a lot of those problems.

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

What has Brexit got to do with blue passports ?

They didn't even have to change the colour in the first place.

Apparently a lot looking at how prominent Brexiteers welcomed the news of a return to the blue passports. We know now the colour was a choice and the had control of that decision from the start. I think that will become apparent that there was control all along, it was a choice of successive governments not to exercise that control because it was for the greater good ("the greater good").

An Ciarraioch

Any Bristolian posters?

http://www.bristolpost.co.uk/news/bristol-news/bristol-people-846-year-old-984810

Capt'n Midnight

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Any Bristolian posters?

http://www.bristolpost.co.uk/news/bristol-news/bristol-people-846-year-old-984810

LOL , but it's already covered by the CTA.

Unlike the fishing rights.
https://inews.co.uk/news/uk/belgium-says-1666-royal-charter-grants-fishermen-eternal-rights-english-waters/

Officials from Flanders, the northern, Dutch-speaking half of Belgium, have unearthed a 350-year-old royal charter giving 50 fishermen from Bruges eternal access to English waters. King Charles II signed the “privilege” on October 2, 1666.

An Ciarraioch

Meanwhile, May now rivals Putin and Trump for net unpopularity here:

http://cdn.thejournal.ie/media/2017/12/irish-citizens-view.jpg

ArmaniJeanss

Lord Adonis quits as Theresa May's infrastructure tsar over Brexit.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/dec/29/lord-adonis-quits-as-theresa-may-infrastructure-tsar-over-brexit

Strong words in his resignation letter to PMTM, though he rarely holds back anyway.

The European Union withdrawal bill is the worst legislation of my lifetime. It arrives soon in the House of Lords and I feel duty bound to oppose it relentlessly from the Labour benches.
Brexit is a populist and nationalist spasm worthy of Donald Trump. After the narrow referendum vote, a form of associate membership of the EU might have been attempted without rupturing Britain’s key trading and political alliances. Instead, by allying with Ukip and the Tory hard right to wrench Britain out of the key economic and political institutions of modern Europe, you are pursuing a course fraught with danger.
.....
A responsible government would be leading the British people to stay in Europe while also tackling, with massive vigour, the social and economic problems within Britain which contributed to the Brexit vote. Unfortunately, your policy is the reverse.
The government is hurtling towards the EU’s emergency exit with no credible plan for the future of British trade and European co-operation, all the while ignoring – beyond soundbites and inadequate programmes – the crises of housing, education, the NHS, and social and regional inequality which are undermining the fabric of our nation and feeding a populist surge.

An Ciarraioch

160k Irish passports issued to UK residents in 2017 - equally split between NI and GB:

https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/republic-of-ireland/irish-passport-applications-by-uk-citizens-surge-36444527.html

Capt'n Midnight

No surprises on the Blue passport, allow extra travel time.

Blue passports could send UK citizens to back of queue, EU officials say

The EU travel information and authorisation system (Etias) is modeled on the US Esta scheme and could require British travellers to Europe to register in advance and make a small administrative payment.

Capt'n Midnight

Turns out the UK was issuing blue passports all along.

https://twitter.com/Ned_Donovan/status/943972220421984258/photo/1

Capt'n Midnight

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Have we covered Clegg's knighthood?

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/dec/26/nick-clegg-to-be-knighted-in-new-year-honours

Looks like I was wrong about Sir Nick
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-42504660

Melvyn Bragg gets recognition too
but so do a lot of riff-raff
author Jilly Cooper and TV chef Rick Stein become CBEs
Strictly judge Darcey Bussell made a dame,
Eamonn Holmes,

ancapailldorcha

Less of the one liners please.

Peregrinus

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Turns out the UK was issuing blue passports all along.

https://twitter.com/Ned_Donovan/status/943972220421984258/photo/1

Strictly speaking, not passports. Passports are issued to citizens. These are travel documents issued to non-citizen refugees who, of course, not being British Citizens are also not EU citizens, which is why they don't follow the EU standard design - no claret colour, no reference to the EU on the cover.

Sidey

Peregrinus wrote: »

Strictly speaking, not passports.  Passports are issued to citizens.  These are travel documents issued to non-citizen refugees who, of course, not being British Citizens are also not EU citizens, which is why they don't follow the EU standard design - no claret colour, no reference to the EU on the cover.

Yeah but at the same time the colour etc are guidelines, not requirements. Croatia has always retained its blue passport, and the other 27 EU member states use a variety of shades of burgundy, they are not all identical.

My dog has a nice blue EU pet passport courtesy of the UK government....

Jim2007

Deleted User wrote: »

My dog has a nice blue EU pet passport courtesy of the UK government....

It will not be recognized after BREXIT though, yet another thing to be negotiated....

CelticRambler

Deleted User wrote: »

My dog has a nice blue EU pet passport courtesy of the UK government....

Pet passports are a lovely example of the UK coming up with an idea (for its own benefit), doing all the development work and field testing, to create a final product so perfectly fit-for-purpose that the EU adopted it lock, stock and barrel.

The '90s - such good times!

Jim2007

Jim2007 wrote: »

Deleted User wrote: »

My dog has a nice blue EU pet passport courtesy of the UK government....

It will not be recognized after BREXIT though, yet another thing to be negotiated....

Don't worry, we aim to have her home and naturalised with a nice Irish one pre the big red date.

murphaph

Listening to the news on the radio this lunch time and apparently asylum applications across the EU are down 50% on last year.

J Mysterio

Flaneur closed her account
Was a good contributor here.

Tell me how

J Mysterio wrote:

Flaneur closed her account Was a good contributor here.

Gees, hate seeing any decent contributors move on.
Hopefully, may return with new username.

flatty

murphaph wrote: »

Listening to the news on the radio this lunch time and apparently asylum applications across the EU are down 50% on last year.

Well that's surely obvious?
Last year there was a full scale migration

murphaph

flatty wrote: »

Well that's surely obvious?
Last year there was a full scale migration

Exactly. A particularly sensitive year to hold the referendum in, and which was clearly exceptional.

ancapailldorcha

Low quality post deleted.

MrPudding

Interesting story in the Guardian.

The East Coast rail service is not relevant to this discussion (but interesting from a UK politics/can Grayling do anything right/seriously, how useless is Grayling perspective), but I do find Adonis' claim that the civil servants do not support the government's position to be very interesting, should it actually prove to be true.

I this is the bit that scares me the most about what I am seeing, in relation to Brexit. Generally one would expect ministers to use the experience and expertise within the civil service to help them make decisions and shape policy, but here we are seeing an unwillingness to acknowledge any expertise, either within the various government departments, or without.

I was a remainer, and I am still a remainer, but I simply don't see how TM can make a success of Brexit (assuming that a success can be made of it, which I doubt), as she promises to do, if she refuses to listen to anyone that actually knows anything about anything.

Capt'n Midnight

MrPudding wrote: »

Interesting story in the Guardian.

Is HS2 still on the cards ?

Like Brexit the cost is continually going up and the benefits are hard to justify , optimistically £48Bn to get to Birmingham or up to £111Bn overall, and only expected to make £34Bn revenue over the next 60 years. Where is the rest of the money going ? And who benefits ?

It would be far cheaper to subsidise the internets so people could telecommute instead, and everyone would benefit. Not just executives.

CBA looking up the alternative plans where most of the cost could be saved if they went for a slightly slower setup which would have most of the benefits. It would be like staying in the EU and using their existing rights. BTW thanks to Sterling tanking they'll save a good bit on their future contributions. So there's that.



Love this Viz top tip

joeysoap

I notice a lot of stuff we import from the UK is downsized now. Ie packs of batteries (purchased new for Christmas use) used to contain 6 - now 5, Tartare sauce that I opened last week is in much smaller jars and there’s lots more like this

Are we paying a price for sterling devaluing and manufacturers in UK downsizing to avoid price increases ?

Shouldn’t we see a decrease in prices of UK products or are we paying a price for Brexit too?

judeboy101

joeysoap wrote: »

I notice a lot of stuff we import from the UK is downsized now. Ie packs of batteries (purchased new for Christmas use) used to contain 6 - now 5, Tartare sauce that I opened last week is in much smaller jars and there’s lots more like this

Are we paying a price for sterling devaluing and manufacturers in UK downsizing to avoid price increases ?

Shouldn’t we see a decrease in prices of UK products or are we paying a price for Brexit too?

Don't get me started on 200g bags of Doritos now 180g but same price.