Brexit discussion thread III

Skedaddle

It seems the message is coming from the very top of the Tory Party. Theresa May has tweeted exactly the same message:

https://twitter.com/theresa_may/status/952108358668038146

And earlier from the European Commission :

https://twitter.com/EU_Commission/status/952115534568546306

ancapailldorcha

Mod: One liners deleted.

Enzokk

You can blame the newspapers for Brexit, they have been culpable with their anti-EU stories for years. But if the UK political parties take credit for EU directives and not mention it to the people that it is actually those pesky EU rules they have to follow, but place the blame when they want to hide their failures they are just as culpable.

To be honest I expected nothing less from Theresa May on this. I have this sinking feeling that with Brexit we will be in a situation where, and to borrow a phrase from John Oliver, we will think we have reached bottom but the next week will just lower the expectations and we will look fondly on the week before where we thought it couldn't get worse.

Samaris

andrewfaulk wrote: »

Just to pick up on two of your points..

The Irish media haven’t a clue, anything I’ve read had been poorly researched and takes cues from what the British press are saying.. I think the reason that so many people think we are so reliant on the Uk is because they read it in a poorly researched newspaper article..

I've found Tony Connolly excellent tbh; he knows his stuff and is good at communicating it.

andrewfaulk wrote: »

The Rosslare to the continent ferry thing has been going on since brexit was mentioned.. I can’t see Rosslare or Waterford pulling vast amounts of business/routes from Dublin to be honest.. in the general scheme of things, these ports serve their markets in the south and south east of the country and Dublin and Cork cover the rest.. that won’t change just because of brexit.. it will still cost €300+ more to bring a container or trailer to Rosslare or Waterford port than to Dublin port from Dublin and surrounding areas.. that’s down to geography and brexit won’t change that..

It may at the moment, but it depends on if our essential trade systems have to change. I really don't know what will happen there, but if we actually can't go through the UK because it's all fallen through again, we will need to make up capacity and Dublin may not be able to handle the bigger demands on its facilities.

Enzokk

Seems that the UK leaving the EU with no deal is actually not a big deal after all,

EU to lose £500bn and UK to gain £640bn in no-deal Brexit, economist claims

"Because its customs union with the UK would stop immediately, it would lose two years’ worth of the terms of trade gain its producers make on its balance of trade surplus with the UK- estimated at around £18 billion a year: so two years’ worth of that would be another £36 billion one-off loss," he added.

By contrast, a breakdown in talks would lead to a "one-off gain" of £38 billion on savings in relation to the EU budget, in addition a £180 billion windfall as a result of bringing forward the "long-term gain" of "free trade, own-regulation and own-border-control" in the absence of the otherwise expected two-year implementation period for a deal.

The UK would also gain the total of £433 billion tariff revenue which Prof Minford calculated would be paid by the EU to the Treasury, he said.

He concluded: "So plus £641 billion for the UK versus minus £507 billion for the EU: it could not be more open and shut who least wants a breakdown. For the UK a breakdown would be a short term nuisance but a substantial economic gain; for the EU it is both a short term nuisance and a substantial economic loss."

I think we should start thinking about leaving the EU as well if this is true. Seems the economist, Patrick Minford, was the only economist to predict that GDP would grow by 6.8% after Brexit.

Most economists say Brexit will hurt the economy—but one disagrees

Moreover, Mr Minford’s calculations are based on dubious assumptions. He also ignores the “gravity” effect, whereby close neighbours trade more with each other. He reckons any fall in trade with the EU will automatically be made up elsewhere. He attributes all the rise in Britain’s trade with the EU since it joined in 1973 to trade diversion, not trade creation, ignoring evidence to the contrary. And he says all price differences are caused by protection, whereas most reflect differing quality or regulatory standards. Swati Dhingra and her colleagues at the London School of Economics have used their Brexit model to recalculate the gains of unilateral free trade. It reduces the loss from a hard Brexit, but only slightly, from 2.6% of GDP to 2.3%.

Nate--IRL--

Patrick Minford is a "Leading economist", the rest are just "experts".

He's been the goto economist for the Brexit side, and lest we not forget Economics, despite what economist claim, is not a science.

Nate

ancapailldorcha

From The Independent:

The sole economic modelling exercise showing material benefits for the UK from Brexit has been debunked as “doubly misleading”, further demolishing the argument that for Britain “no deal would be better than a bad deal” when it comes to the EU.

Work by the “Economists for Brexit” group, led by Professor Patrick Minford of Cardiff Business School, before last year’s referendum suggested that if the UK left the EU without a trade deal and unilaterally dropped all tariff barriers on imports the country’s GDP could be boosted by 4 per cent relative to otherwise.

The finding, which contradicted all other studies which showed that Britain would be worse off due to leaving the EU, has been widely cited by hardline Brexiteers and even some business figures as evidence that the UK economy has little to lose if Britain fails to conclude a trade deal with the rest of the EU.

Unilaterally dismantling tariffs would be disastrous for farmers and other producers of goods and removes a key card in negotiations while leaving the option open for the other side.

The problem with resorting to dismissing academics and other experts is that you can't complain when someone else adopts the same tactic but then, this was a key part of the anti-intellectual theme of Brexit.

Peregrinus

Enzokk wrote: »

. . . I think we should start thinking about leaving the EU as well if this is true.

Why? Even if you assume Minford's predictions regarding the UK are correct, he has not made similar predictions in relation to Ireland.

Enzokk wrote: »

Seems the economist, Patrick Minford, was the only economist to predict that GDP would grow by 6.8% after Brexit.

The fact that he's completely at odds with his peers isn't necessarily a recommendation, Enzokk!

murphaph

I think Enzokk was being sarcastic.

Skedaddle

I'm still finding that many people (including some in business) haven't comprehended what being a 3rd country outside the EU actually means.

I spent 30 minutes this morning arguing with someome who genuinely believes that if the UK leaves the EU and drops tarrifs on global trade that EU countries couple then import tarrif free goods from say China via the UK.

He couldn't seem to understand that the UK would be unable to trade tarrif free back into.thr EU and that that would actually be enabling smuggling!!

It's just one of many examples of ridiculously nonsensical arguments that I keep getting presented with my people who should know better.

I just cannot believe how poorly informed people are on this. There's a huge element of misleading by political parties and media outlets but it's quite frightening to just see how much of these lies have been 100% believed by a significant chunk of the British public.

There's a persistent notion that they can just rip up the customs union, harmonisation rules and all sorts of "red tape" and somehow just continue to trade with the EU-27 as if nothing happened. I'm not entirely sure where this message is coming from, but it's one I'm encountering over and over.

ancapailldorcha

Post deleted. Having a pop at users who aren't here isn't on.

flutered

LeinsterDub wrote: »

Wasn't Waterford ruined by the docker strike?

this is a new venture, away from the city, in co.kilkenney, its worth kilkenny co.co. over 100,000 per year at the moment

flutered

Enzokk wrote: »

You can blame the newspapers for Brexit, they have been culpable with their anti-EU stories for years. But if the UK political parties take credit for EU directives and not mention it to the people that it is actually those pesky EU rules they have to follow, but place the blame when they want to hide their failures they are just as culpable.

To be honest I expected nothing less from Theresa May on this. I have this sinking feeling that with Brexit we will be in a situation where, and to borrow a phrase from John Oliver, we will think we have reached bottom but the next week will just lower the expectations and we will look fondly on the week before where we thought it couldn't get worse.

a list of the items which the uk has blamed on the eu
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Euromyth

Zerbini Blewitt

flutered wrote: »

a list of the items which the uk has blamed on the eu
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Euromyth

That's not a euromyths list.

This is a euromyths list

blogs.ec.europa.eu/ECintheUK/euromyths

BonnieSituation

Zerbini Blewitt wrote: »

That's not a euromyths list.

This is a euromyths list

blogs.ec.europa.eu/ECintheUK/euromyths

I'd love to see a ratio of how many of these are British based vs the rest.

Zerbini Blewitt

BonnieSituation wrote: »

I'd love to see a ratio of how many of these are British based vs the rest.

These are all exclusively British !!

(There may be a EU-27 euromyth list somewhere too, idk).

BonnieSituation

Zerbini Blewitt wrote: »

These are all exclusively British !!

(There may be a EU-27 euromyth list somewhere too, idk).

There's a Danish apple one in there.

---

http://blogs.ec.europa.eu/ECintheUK/danish-apples/

Zerbini Blewitt

Well spotted. Though it doesn't say what paper originally published this.

I was just going by the name of the page - EC in the UK- plus the various examples I read.

I think they intended the page to be just British but some other member states myths must have slipped in too.

BonnieSituation

Zerbini Blewitt wrote: »

Well spotted. Though it doesn't say what paper originally published this.

I was just going by the name of the page - EC in the UK- plus the various examples I read.

I think they intended the page to be just British but some other member states myths must have slipped in too.

I only saw that in the URL when I went back in.

CrabRevolution

Apologies for just quoting myself, but I feel it's worth repeating now that we're back on the topic of the UK papers.

CrabRevolution wrote: »

The notion that the UK has been the one keeping the EU grounded with sensibility and reality is utterly comical.

Fire the French "Euromyths" section of the Commission website through a translator: http://ec.europa.eu/france/news/decodeurseurope_fr

Then take a look at the UK Euromyths: http://blogs.ec.europa.eu/ECintheUK/page/2/

The French version deals with large scale, genuine, easily measured and provable concerns such as EU funding,democracy, jobs, immigration, agriculture,fishing, social integration etc. Not to say it answers them all satisfactorily, but it's a pretty serious, grown up discussion.

The UK section is page after page of British newspapers blaming the EU for everything, no matter how incorrect, trivial or inexplicable. Either that or falsely accusing the EU of banning something.

http://blogs.ec.europa.eu/ECintheUK/euromyths-a-z-index/

Looking through that list of lies it's easy to see how the British press fooled the UK into somehow thinking they were the level headed straight man needed to keep Europe from going mad.

Strazdas

CrabRevolution wrote: »

Apologies for just quoting myself, but I feel it's worth repeating now that we're back on the topic of the UK papers.

The lying and deceit of the UK press goes without saying but I've a funny feeling their appalling ignorance of all things European is a strong factor as well (for instance, not knowing that the European Court of Human Rights is not part of the EU).

BonnieSituation

Strazdas wrote: »

The lying and deceit of the UK press goes without saying but I've a funny feeling their appalling ignorance of all things European is a strong factor as well (for instance, not knowing that the European Court of Human Rights is not part of the EU).

It's the classic, "Fog in the Channel, Continent cut-off" mindset. It's staggering.

seamus

Potential real economic effects being felt now;

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2018/0115/933349-carillion-collapses/

20,000 employees in Britain alone, valued at £1bn back in July 2017, lots of big government projects on the go, and it can't get funding from banks. To me, that says a lot about what the banks think of the future for construction in the UK. Even if it's just a case of a business being run badly, the UK government are being forced to engage in bail out of sorts because the company are contracted to run several vital public services. So it's not what they need.

And in other news...
https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2018/0115/933352-jaguar-land-rover-jobs/

One of the quintessentially British car brands have announced a small engineering facility in Ireland to "compliment" the massive facilities they already have in the UK. Most likely getting themselves a beachhead in the EU so that if necessary they can transfer licencing and sales bookings to Ireland and ensure that they are an EU manufacturer and not just a UK one.

Good news for Shannon as they may start transferring more and more jobs across as time goes on.

Sam Russell

Skedaddle wrote: »

It seems the message is coming from the very top of the Tory Party. Theresa May has tweeted exactly the same message:

https://twitter.com/theresa_may/status/952108358668038146

And earlier from the European Commission :

https://twitter.com/EU_Commission/status/952115534568546306

BonnieSituation wrote: »

It's the classic, "Fog in the Channel, Continent cut-off" mindset. It's staggering.

Look at how the UK Prime Minister can lie to take credit for an EU benefit (Credit Card Charges abolished) and give not only no credit to the EU but not even a mention of the EU.

This is barefaced opportunism at a breathtaking level.

Nody

seamus wrote: »

And in other news...
https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2018/0115/933352-jaguar-land-rover-jobs/

One of the quintessentially British car brands have announced a small engineering facility in Ireland to "compliment" the massive facilities they already have in the UK. Most likely getting themselves a beachhead in the EU so that if necessary they can transfer licencing and sales bookings to Ireland and ensure that they are an EU manufacturer and not just a UK one.

Good news for Shannon as they may start transferring more and more jobs across as time goes on.

JLR said last year that all its new cars would be available in an electric or hybrid version from 2020 and is building its first fully electric model, the I-PACE, in Austria, which will go on sale in 2018.

Ergo I'd not hold my breath on it growing anything significantly beyond the software scope.

seamus

Nody wrote: »

Ergo I'd not hold my breath on it growing anything significantly beyond the software scope.

No, and Ireland has no business doing heavy manufacturing for export.

But modern car manufacturing is convoluted and involves lots of companies developing software and vehicle designs and technology patents, and then selling these under licence to another company which will then outsource another one to actually manufacture them. Even though all of these companies may actually belong to the same parent.

Manufacturing in Austria and designing in Ireland gives Land Rover a lot of footprint in the EU and a lot of places to book income (and expenses).

Water John

Not sure I understand the difference, between making cars in Sunderland or Shannon.
We go back to Airbus, made all over the place and still successful.
We shouldn't rule out heavy industry, just because we went with the fashion in the 80's and dropped it.

Water John

Water John wrote: »

Not sure I understand the difference, between making cars in Sunderland or Shannon.
We go back to Airbus, made all over the place and still successful.
We shouldn't rule out heavy industry, just because we went with the fashion in the 80's and dropped it.

Cars are high volume, very efficient, low value add activity as far as I can see. Id say its fairly cut throat.

Airbus is a very high quality, low volume production.

seamus

Water John wrote: »

Not sure I understand the difference, between making cars in Sunderland or Shannon.
We go back to Airbus, made all over the place and still successful.
We shouldn't rule out heavy industry, just because we went with the fashion in the 80's and dropped it.

Certain heavy industries are fine. But anything which involves production at high volume is an issue for us because of our location - shipping (both shipping raw materials in and end product out) becomes a massive component of the cost, and locations which can ship faster and cheaper will win out.

Low-volume industries like aircraft or ship building are fine because shipping costs are either irrelevant or a tiny component of the overall cost.

We shouldn't rule out heavy industry, but we should never expect to win any high-volume manufacturing.

Water John

The car I drive, was made in Japan. All materials had to be shipped in to Japan and cars exported across to world to here. I wouldn't over simplify and would access each project, on its merits. I think many trends, have become self fullfiling prophecies. Often triggered by a temporary advantage.

listermint

seamus wrote: »

Potential real economic effects being felt now;

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2018/0115/933349-carillion-collapses/

20,000 employees in Britain alone, valued at £1bn back in July 2017, lots of big government projects on the go, and it can't get funding from banks. To me, that says a lot about what the banks think of the future for construction in the UK. Even if it's just a case of a business being run badly, the UK government are being forced to engage in bail out of sorts because the company are contracted to run several vital public services. So it's not what they need.
.

This is Major, Particularly so because of the level of government contracts they have.

This will really hurt a huge amount of small businesses, that 20,000 can move into the 100,000 realms very easily considering the scope of this company working with Third parties

Water John

Water John wrote: »

The car I drive, was made in Japan. All materials had to be shipped in to Japan and cars exported across to world to here. I wouldn't over simplify and would access each project, on its merits.

I wouldnt oversimplify either, I work in manufacturing. We need to get things in from europe regularly. The shipping costs us, not just the price of the item particularly the time taken to deliver when we are against a clock.

Japan has some advantages that we do not. Huge population with a depth of knowledge, the japanese own that car company, they own all the IP and Patents, they have been doing the design work for years. The real high value stuff.

I visited a toyota factory in Japan a few years ago and saw the actual production line. Very much of it is fairly simple assembly work, with JIT component delivery to the line. Not the type of stuff that we should be aiming for as far as i can see.

Sam Russell

Water John wrote: »

The car I drive, was made in Japan. All materials had to be shipped in to Japan and cars exported across to world to here. I wouldn't over simplify and would access each project, on its merits. I think many trends, have become self fullfiling prophecies. Often triggered by a temporary advantage.

Your Japanese car was shipped fully assembled in a giant purpose built ship. The engine would be Japanese, as would most of the components.

If we were to make cars in high volume, we would have to import everything because we currently make very few, if any, of the components that go into cars.

We are good at dairy, meat, and wheat. Let us concentrate of Kerrygold, cheese, grass fed beef, and the like.

And hope the tourists keep coming.

Water John

I accept that Topgear. We should aim, higher up the tree. But we shouldn't rule out everything in heavy industry. Cranes are being made in Killarney with a long time and they have to transport them, even via the N22 and close off sections of it, at the time.
Sorry for derailing.

BTW, Japan has to import, all the raw materials. With EVs battery and electric motor manufacture are two new avenues.

Water John

Water John wrote: »

I accept that Topgear. We should aim, higher up the tree. But we shouldn't rule out everything in heavy industry. Cranes are being made in Killarney with a long time and they have to transport them, even via the N22 and close off sections of it, at the time.

Absolutely but I would regard this a closer to Airbus than Toyota style production, low volume production and fairly high quality.

Sorry mods, we now return to Brexit :pac:

Leroy42

listermint wrote: »

This is Major, Particularly so because of the level of government contracts they have.

This will really hurt a huge amount of small businesses, that 20,000 can move into the 100,000 realms very easily considering the scope of this company working with Third parties

But my understanding is that it has little, if anything to do with Brexit. It is bad timing for May, and only adds to the sense of impending doom in some sections, but I think it is more down to a badly run company being allowed to basically borrow its way to growth with no actual business outcomes behind it.

Zubeneschamali

Leroy42 wrote: »

But my understanding is that it has little, if anything to do with Brexit.

Carillion were blaming Brexit induced uncertainty for a drop in orders.

But if they were in a hole thanks to ordinary mismanagement, that would be an obvious thing to claim. As of July last, they were the most shorted stock on the London exchange - investors have been expecting this for a while.

ancapailldorcha

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Carillion were blaming Brexit induced uncertainty for a drop in orders.

But if they were in a hole thanks to ordinary mismanagement, that would be an obvious thing to claim. As of July last, they were the most shorted stock on the London exchange - investors have been expecting this for a while.

Given that their chairman is Phillip Green of BHS fame, it could be anything.

joeysoap

the Toyota I drive is made in Turkey. The Hyundai I am thinking of buying is made in Czech Republic. So low cost (relatively) plants? Can’t see a major manufacturer starting up here.

Leroy42

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Given that their chairman is Phillip Green of BHS fame, it could be anything.

Different guy

joeysoap

joeysoap wrote: »

the Toyota I drive is made in Turkey. The Hyundai I am thinking of buying is made in Czech Republic. So low cost (relatively) plants? Can’t see a major manufacturer starting up here.

I believe Slovakia is now one of the world's largest manufacturers of cars per capita with PSA and VAG having plants there.

My company has a large operation there and it is second only to India in terms of low cost and has a highly educated workforce with very high levels of language skills. it is also perfectly placed for shipping high volumes of goods in to Mainland europe. We would be very hard pressed to compete with that.

Shannon, on the other hand, is well placed for software development and access to the US. it is also an area the IDA will happily pump lots of money in to.

Horses for courses and all that.

Sam Russell

Aegir wrote: »

Shannon, on the other hand, is well placed for software development and access to the US. it is also an area the IDA will happily pump lots of money in to.

Horses for courses and all that.

Shannon would be a brilliant place to develop aircraft maintenance, commercial pilot training, and other aviation based industry - big airport that is underused.

Skedaddle

The car plants in the UK would almost definitely go to Slovakia, the Czech Republic, Poland or possibly even Spain.

The thing that's making Poland, Hungary and a few others unattractive is the lurch to the far right and rising Euroscepticism that could lead to them exciting the EU. There's no point in jumping out of the frying pan and into the fire.

There's no real advantage to manufacturing those kind of things in Ireland at extremely high cost and in a market with very few people with manufacturing skills.

We are better off focusing on Brexit fleeing services companies and similar, which we are uniquely positioned to attract.

Skedaddle

Skedaddle wrote: »

The car plants in the UK would almost definitely go to Slovakia, the Czech Republic, Poland or possibly even Spain.

The thing that's making Poland, Hungary and a few others unattractive is the lurch to the far right and rising Euroscepticism that could lead to them exciting the EU. There's no point in jumping out of the frying pan and into the fire.

There's no real advantage to manufacturing those kind of things in Ireland at extremely high cost and in a market with very few people with manufacturing skills.

We are better off focusing on Brexit fleeing services companies and similar, which we are uniquely positioned to attract.

I doubt very much that any car plants in the UK will suddenly be upping sticks and moving east. What you may see is other plants in europe slowly increase and european production switched there.

Nody

Aegir wrote: »

I doubt very much that any car plants in the UK will suddenly be upping sticks and moving east. What you may see is other plants in europe slowly increase and european production switched there.

I don't expect them to up sticks and go but I expect the investments for upcoming car platforms will shrink drastically as those new machines etc. are installed in European plants instead with one or two platforms are left for UK specific cars only. That will also have a knock on effect on the volume and number of shifts required in UK. Their suppliers will get less volume but has a chance to recoup some by branching out and deliver more of the car parts compared to imports from Europe but they will be even further tied to the leg of the car manufacturers good will so to speak.

Nody

Nody wrote: »

I don't expect them to up sticks and go but I expect the investments for upcoming car platforms will shrink drastically as those new machines etc. are installed in European plants instead with one or two platforms are left for UK specific cars only. That will also have a knock on effect on the volume and number of shifts required in UK. Their suppliers will get less volume but has a chance to recoup some by branching out and deliver more of the car parts compared to imports from Europe but they will be even further tied to the leg of the car manufacturers good will so to speak.

you are presuming that the UK plants only produce for the UK and the EU, this is very much not the case.

Vronsky

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Given that their chairman is Phillip Green of BHS fame, it could be anything.

Same name, different person.

Sam Russell

Aegir wrote: »

you are presuming that the UK plants only produce for the UK and the EU, this is very much not the case.

It is not who they sell to but who they buy from. A UK car is 70% to 80% by value imported. If there is no simple import regime as exists at the moment, JIT goes out the window, stock holding goes up, and costs go up, and competitiveness goes down.

In an economy already suffering from low productivity, that is what you do not need.

The Opel/Vauxhall Astra plant in Ellesmere Port in Wales is shedding jobs. Peugot will be rationalising in the UK, and will look at Luton and Ellesmere Port.

BMW has already said they will not be producing the electric version of the Mini in the UK.

Looks grim for car plants in the UK if there is a hard Brexit.

Leroy42

[QUOTE=Sam Russell;105847602Looks grim for car plants in the UK if there is a hard Brexit.[/QUOTE]

Is there any evidence of a pull out happening? I don't ask that in terms of questioning your logic but more so on the basis that to date I don't see any big evidence of it.

Is it that the companies affected (in this case the car manufacturers) are A) waiting for the brexit deal in the hope that it won't be a hard brexit and thus nothing/little will change and that the costs of the plants are already spent and as such they are locked in for the medium term anyway (any tariffs etc will effect them but not enough to simply shut up shop).

Sam Russell

Leroy42 wrote: »

Is there any evidence of a pull out happening? I don't ask that in terms of questioning your logic but more so on the basis that to date I don't see any big evidence of it.

Is it that the companies affected (in this case the car manufacturers) are A) waiting for the brexit deal in the hope that it won't be a hard brexit and thus nothing/little will change and that the costs of the plants are already spent and as such they are locked in for the medium term anyway (any tariffs etc will effect them but not enough to simply shut up shop).

The link I gave says the Elesmere port has seven hundred job cuts announced since October from a workforce of 1900. It is reducing to a single shift, so that is indicative of reducing production, and is the signal of closing down.

Honda has already announced that Brexit without customs union would be disasterous. This analysis is worth reading.

The devastating impact of a hard Brexit on the UK car industry was laid bare on Tuesday to MPs, who were told every 15 minutes of customs delays would cost some manufacturers up to £850,000 a year.

Presenting the industry’s most detailed evidence yet to the business select committee, Honda UK said it relied on 350 trucks a day arriving from Europe to keep its giant Swindon factory operating, with just an hour’s worth of parts being held on the production line.

The Japanese-owned company said it would take 18 months to set up new procedures and warehouses if Britain left the customs union but that, with 2m daily component movements, even minor delays at Dover and the Channel tunnel would force hundreds of its trucks to wait for the equivalent of 90 hours a day.

“Outside of the customs union, there is no such thing as a frictionless border,” said Honda’s government affairs manager, Patrick Keating.

Looks like PGA, Honda and possibly a few more are already looking at exiting the UK in the next 5 years if there is a hard Brexit.