Brexit discussion thread III

demfad

Enlightening thread here:

https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/959006916579155974

Planning for no-deal needs serious legislation to reduce catasrophic affects.

For example Haulage Bill needed as UK Haulage in EU (currently 75,000 trucks) would only be eligable for 1,200 licences as a 3rd country devastating the industry (and exports).

They are having trouble with the Bill:

• Brexiters in parliament think it's too gloomy: makes no-deal look like a disastrous outcome
• Negotiators fear it will antagonise Brussels when the UK need good relations
• They also feel a deal is odds on now so why waste the money

Leroy42

There is no planning for a no-deal. The UK do not envisage there ever being a no deal.

The no-deal is a line trotted out to try to put pressure on the EU to negotiate. 'Give is what we want or we walk away'

The problem is that what the UK seem to want, all the benefits and none of the responsibilities, goes against the very basis on what the EU is built on. The other issue it that the EU believes that any no deal will hurt the UK far more than it will hurt them and therefore and willing to call their bluff. Now the UK are stuck as to fall back now would see them not only lose face but put them in a weaker position, so the only real option is try to brave it out.

For a country that keeps telling its parliament and citizens that it cannot go into details as it would weaken its negotiation strength, it is more than happy to blunty lay out it bottom line at seemingly every opportunity.

Rjd2

Interesting stuff regarding the leadership of May below. A minister planning to resign in protest at her leadership likely to be a remainer.

The first ten minutes of the podcast is interesting, confidence been lost in May by all sides.

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/5471789/senior-minister-preparing-to-resign-and-denounce-theresa-may-from-the-backbenches/

https://www.spectator.co.uk/2018/02/theresa-may-must-lead-or-go/

Bigus

CelticRambler wrote: »

Maybe it'll fall to private enterprise to really drive home to the Great British Sun-Reading Man In The Street what Brexit meaning Brexit really means? Ryanair will put a “Brexit clause” into ticket sales for summer 2019, warning customers that their tickets will not be valid if the issue of aviation regulation after Britain’s departure from the EU remains unresolved.

Nothing like the threat of a cancelled binge-drinking holiday on the Costa to demonstrate what a hard Brexit looks like in real life.

It's more telling to read the comments in the online DM , to give you a real taste of the imbeciles thoughts on Brexit. Well worth trawling through, including "uk controls all the airspace in the eastern Atlantic as far as the Azores "

, as a threat to stop Ryanair and those pesky Irish.

Also they're all, only flying British airlines from now on , until someone pointed out there's no British airlines left, ... I think they're going to Cornish beaches for hols

Leroy42

I mentioned previously that Brexiteers are turning towards the line that the civil service is part of some "deep state" style conspiracy to keep UK within the EU against the wishes of both the voters and parliament.

Well today, Rees-Mogg stood up and made the claim that that is precisely what is going on, basing his assertion that the CS had designed a model to ensure that all Brexit paths were negative.

Steve Baker told MPs he did not necessarily believe it – but did not rule it out.

This is simply extraordinary for a serving member of the government to state that they are ok with the idea that the CS is no longer impartial and may, in fact, be working against the wishes of the government.

Poisoning the well seems to be the done thing these days.

UK and USA doing their bit to destroy faith in the media and the state.

LuckyLloyd

We're in very weird territory, to say the least. Just like the Trump presidency exposed the fact that many things Presidents did by rote were matters of principle and tradition rather than law, Brexiteers are now moving into uncharted waters by throwing Civil Servants and Judges into the limelight as key actors. This is where you start moving beyond incompetence and dogma onto danger and destabilisation.

joeysoap

Yet another angle

https://www.rte.ie/amp/937559/

ancapailldorcha

Mod: Please comment on a link's content instead of just posting it.

Really Interested

joeysoap wrote: »

Yet another angle

https://www.rte.ie/amp/937559/

There is also a reference in relation to International protection and Dublin III https://www.google.ie/amp/s/www.irishtimes.com/news/crime-and-law/courts/high-court/high-court-asks-european-court-of-justice-to-clarify-eu-law-amid-brexit-concerns-1.3303484%3Fmode%3Damp

This could mean people who sought protection in UK who then come to Ireland may not be sent back to UK.

Capt'n Midnight

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Brexit: George Hamilton warning over European Arrest Warrant

Oh look it's already happening
"The court was previously told 20 extradition cases to the UK are held up, pending the decision in this case."

The problem with Brexit is that there's lots and lots of loose ends like this
that need to be sorted, not just the trivial stuff.

Capt'n Midnight

CelticRambler wrote: »

Nothing like the threat of a cancelled binge-drinking holiday on the Costa to demonstrate what a hard Brexit looks like in real life.

As Sammy Wilson (DUP) puts it about Irish Passports
https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2018/0201/937517-passport/

"People who vote for me, who call themselves loyalists, do this because they think 'aye Sammy, you never know once we leave the EU I don't want to have to apply for a visa to go on my holiday to Spain'. So that's the kind of thing that has provoked that.

CelticRambler

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

As Sammy Wilson (DUP) puts it about Irish Passports ...

Aye, Sammy, and I suppose you'll stoically fly on a British-ish airline to London to stand in line for your flight from Heathrow to the rest of the world, while your "canny" voters profit from Northern Ireland's special status fortunate geo-political contiguity to the Republic/EU and zip down the M1 to Dublin Airport, Irish passport in hand ... :rolleyes:

(FWIW, I don't believe that the planes will stop flying at 23h00 on B-Day :cool:)

Water John

This grassroots coordinating group (GCG) may bring a fresh light to the debate, if given any fair run by some of the UK media.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/feb/01/groups-opposed-to-hard-brexit-join-forces-under-chuka-umunna

"The main groups opposed to a hard Brexit are joining forces under the leadership of Chuka Umunna to push for the public’s voice to be heard on Theresa May’s final deal to leave the EU.

The groups, representing more than 500,000 members, are putting aside their differences to work together as the grassroots coordinating group (GCG) at a time when polling suggests the public’s appetite for a second referendum is growing.


Brexit minister accused for second time of maligning civil service
Read more
Those involved in the group include Conservative MP Anna Soubry; Caroline Lucas, co-leader of the Green party and MP for Brighton Pavillion; and the Lib Dem MP Jo Swinson." Extract

PopePalpatine

Water John wrote: »

This grassroots coordinating group (GCG) may bring a fresh light to the debate, if given any fair run by some of the UK media.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/feb/01/groups-opposed-to-hard-brexit-join-forces-under-chuka-umunna

"The main groups opposed to a hard Brexit are joining forces under the leadership of Chuka Umunna to push for the public’s voice to be heard on Theresa May’s final deal to leave the EU.

The groups, representing more than 500,000 members, are putting aside their differences to work together as the grassroots coordinating group (GCG) at a time when polling suggests the public’s appetite for a second referendum is growing.


Brexit minister accused for second time of maligning civil service
Read more
Those involved in the group include Conservative MP Anna Soubry; Caroline Lucas, co-leader of the Green party and MP for Brighton Pavillion; and the Lib Dem MP Jo Swinson." Extract

I can already picture the hard-Brexiteer-media's response to those people heading this campaign.

Capt'n Midnight

Oh dear. Cash for Ash was a breach of the EU state aid rules.


Will there be a fine ? For Brexit the main impact may well be the time and reputation damage to the DUP at a time when May needs them for support.

If anything it's a reminder that EU money will be drying up and the promise of a billion pounds is still that as it still hasn't arrived.


RHI tax issue 'should have gone to European Commission'

An RHI tax write-off should have been part of the information sent to the European Commission seeking approval for the scheme, an inquiry has heard.
...
Mr Moore said it raised the prospect that the tax write-off might be interpreted as additional state aid.

Rjd2

PopePalpatine wrote: »

I can already picture the hard-Brexiteer-media's response to those people heading this campaign.

Doubt Chukka is that bothered by those tbh, he's has had to deal with them for a long time along with the extreme left in the Corbyn section of the party who regard him as "Blairite scum".

Water of a ducks back etc.

Peregrinus

Leroy42 wrote: »

I mentioned previously that Brexiteers are turning towards the line that the civil service is part of some "deep state" style conspiracy to keep UK within the EU against the wishes of both the voters and parliament.

Well today, Rees-Mogg stood up and made the claim that that is precisely what is going on, basing his assertion that the CS had designed a model to ensure that all Brexit paths were negative.

Steve Baker told MPs he did not necessarily believe it – but did not rule it out.

This is simply extraordinary for a serving member of the government to state that they are ok with the idea that the CS is no longer impartial and may, in fact, be working against the wishes of the government.

So, let's see. Since winning the referendum Brexiters have successively attacked, undermined and defamed first Parliament, then the Judiciary and now the Civil Service. I thought the brexity agenda was supposed to be to strengthen domestic British institutions, not to weaken them?

ambro25

Today, I came across the EUropean Intellectual Property Office ('EUIPO') Q&A factsheet about Brexit, recently published on 30 January 2018.

Without doubt, that's been done in the same manner and spirit as other official EU departments have done since March 2017, namely to cut through the rethoric bullcrap from any side, and to state plainly and clearly to all stakeholders what is really ('really-really') going to happen on 1st April 2019.

If anyone ever read and remembers my first post (May 2016...good on you if you do!) on Boards about the topic of UK/EU intellectual property rights in the context of Brexit (I've made a few others ad hoc since), those Q&A by the EUIPO fully vindicate the points I raised and sometimes reiterated int he flow of debate.

Namely, in the absence of a negotiated deal keeping the UK in the EEA, all EU trade marks and all EU designs go 'poof' overnight on 29 March 2017, likewise both UK right owners and UK practitioners all lose their rights of audience at the EUIPO overnight (so shall have to give business to EU27 practitioners, or do business in the EU27 without EU registered IP rights).

All wholly unsurprisingly (these being some of the main reason why we're leaving the UK and moving to Luxembourg in the next 2 weeks): no crystal ball was required then, just a plain reading of the black-and-white EU legal texts (referenced in the Q&A pdf), applied straightforwardly to the hypothesis of the UK becoming a 'third country'.

If you or your business own EU trade mark(s) and/or EU design(s) and your UK commercial activity hinges on those to any extent, I'd strongly suggest that you get chatting with your legal services provider post-haste, if you haven't already.

Sam Russell

Peregrinus wrote: »

So, let's see. Since winning the referendum Brexiters have successively attacked, undermined and defamed first Parliament, then the Judiciary and now the Civil Service. I thought the brexity agenda was supposed to be to strengthen domestic British institutions, not to weaken them?

Previously the Brexiteers had denigrated all 'experts' as well. Plus, since the sky did not fall immediately after the result became known (although the GBP did fall dramatically) then project fear was proved utterly wrong. They now proclaim all forecasts are wrong.

Of course the UK has not left the EU yet but that is beside the point.

Leroy42

Does anyone have any confidence that the UK have even thought about the likes that Ambro25 has detailed?

Every time someone brings issue up the best response seems to be that it will worked out.

There was a post yesterday about some extradition case, and although I have little knowledge of the area, it seems to me that the UK are being totally negligent in how they are dealing with all these issues.

It is all well and good to state you don't want to give too much away for negotiations, but surely they see the need to give information to their own bodies and also to work with the other 27 members to help ease the transition. Weren't the PSNI complaining that they had no idea what was planned?

Just from a political POV, they seem to me to be treating the current co-members and soon to be trading partners with a complete lack of respect.

Harika

Leroy42 wrote: »

Does anyone have any confidence that the UK have even thought about the likes that Ambro25 has detailed?

<-snip->

Just from a political POV, they seem to me to be treating the current co-members and soon to be trading partners with a complete lack of respect.

They have thought it through and know it too well, but on the other hand they are career politicians and want to get to the top. That’s why after David Cameron resigned they lined up to the post of PM on their CV. Also most of them want to keep in their job, so they bowed to the will of the people and are going through with the will of the people even if they know it is bad for Britain. Cause ignoring the people would mean that at the next re-elections they might be gone.
The likes of Boris Johnson see now the failing Brexit negotiations not as something bad, but as opportunity to rise to the top themselves, that’s why they are actively working against a positive outcome to take the helm. Like if Brexit would be a success TM will be in power for 1-2 more elections and only after that they will get a shot again, while with a bad Brexit, they might have a chance sooner than later.
They don’t care about the British people, only about themselves, that’s why we won’t see an exit of Brexit.

Leroy42

Leroy42 wrote: »

Does anyone have any confidence that the UK have even thought about the likes that Ambro25 has detailed?

Every time someone brings issue up the best response seems to be that it will worked out.

There was a post yesterday about some extradition case, and although I have little knowledge of the area, it seems to me that the UK are being totally negligent in how they are dealing with all these issues.

that is only because that is what you want to believe and like the rest of us, have no real visibility of what is actually being done.

The various trade and professional associations will all have contacts in both the civil service and parliament. They will be using these to make sure their case in being heard by the army of civil servants that are engaged in the whole process.

there are various departments within the Department for exiting the eu that each have responsibility for a range of categories, somewhere in all that, IP legislation will be under review and the options being considered.

https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/department-for-exiting-the-european-union/about

listermint

Aegir wrote: »

that is only because that is what you want to believe and like the rest of us, have no real visibility of what is actually being done.

The various trade and professional associations will all have contacts in both the civil service and parliament. They will be using these to make sure their case in being heard by the army of civil servants that are engaged in the whole process.

there are various departments within the Department for exiting the eu that each have responsibility for a range of categories, somewhere in all that, IP legislation will be under review and the options being considered.

https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/department-for-exiting-the-european-union/about

Are these the same Civil departments that are being actively undermined in the Media by their own Government - Daily .

Those departments ??

Leroy42

Aegir wrote: »

that is only because that is what you want to believe and like the rest of us, have no real visibility of what is actually being done.

The various trade and professional associations will all have contacts in both the civil service and parliament. They will be using these to make sure their case in being heard by the army of civil servants that are engaged in the whole process.

there are various departments within the Department for exiting the eu that each have responsibility for a range of categories, somewhere in all that, IP legislation will be under review and the options being considered.

https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/department-for-exiting-the-european-union/about

But then how to do account for the fact that the ministers do not place any credibility on their reports.

If you seem that you have taken the view to believe that something is being done behind the scenes, yet the evidence is to the contrary.

The PSNI, the example I gave, as stated that they have not been included at all despite asking for information. We are 14 months away now so surely system should be starting to take place.

Issues like dealing with EU citizens involved in extradition should be pretty well documented at this stage. What is the purpose of leaving areas like that so up in the air?

And you didn't address my other point that all this cloak and dagger stuff, which you think is going on, is being done without any reach out to other countries. And the UK decisions will affect the other countries. Hardly a promising start when it appears that the UK will look to keep everything from its partners until the very latest time.

Leroy42

Leroy42 wrote: »

But then how to do account for the fact that the ministers do not place any credibility on their reports.

and you have evidence to support this?

Leroy42 wrote: »

If you seem that you have taken the view to believe that something is being done behind the scenes, yet the evidence is to the contrary.

what evidence? are you suggesting the thousands of civil servans engaged in Brexit are doing nothing?

Leroy42 wrote: »

The PSNI, the example I gave, as stated that they have not been included at all despite asking for information. We are 14 months away now so surely system should be starting to take place.

how can a system take place for something that hasn't happened yet?

Leroy42 wrote: »

Issues like dealing with EU citizens involved in extradition should be pretty well documented at this stage. What is the purpose of leaving areas like that so up in the air?

maybe it is, but there is no point publishing it yet, because everything is up in the air until a final decision is made. That final decision hasn't been made yet.

Leroy42 wrote: »

And you didn't address my other point that all this cloak and dagger stuff, which you think is going on, is being done without any reach out to other countries. And the UK decisions will affect the other countries. Hardly a promising start when it appears that the UK will look to keep everything from its partners until the very latest time.

Cloak and dagger? why do you call it that? Do you think you should be personally receiving an update form the thousands of civil servants every day on what they are doing?

Do you have any evidence to suggest that the UK isn't reaching out to other countries?

Because you can't see it, it doesn't mean it isn't happening.

Sam Russell

Aegir wrote: »

and you have evidence to support this?



what evidence? are you suggesting the thousands of civil servans engaged in Brexit are doing nothing?



how can a system take place for something that hasn't happened yet?



maybe it is, but there is no point publishing it yet, because everything is up in the air until a final decision is made. That final decision hasn't been made yet.



Cloak and dagger? why do you call it that? Do you think you should be personally receiving an update form the thousands of civil servants every day on what they are doing?

Do you have any evidence to suggest that the UK isn't reaching out to other countries?

Because you can't see it, it doesn't mean it isn't happening.

I think that David Davis saying to the Commons Select Committee for exiting the EU that no impact assessments have been made - none - would be evidence that there is something lacking. This is after he stated the 47 areas had been investigated, but when asked to produce the reports had to admit that they had in fact not been carried out. [Another interpretation might be they were so damning that he was fearful of publishing them but that would be conspiracy stuff].

The fact that the UK negotiators have yet to supply any papers showing details of what they wish to achieve outside of patisserie products might indicate a lack of coherent resolve.

The UK side are waiting for the EU to tell them what to do, or are unable to tell themselves what to do.

Sam Russell

Sam Russell wrote: »

I think that David Davis saying to the Commons Select Committee for exiting the EU that no impact assessments have been made - none - would be evidence that there is something lacking. This is after he stated the 47 areas had been investigated, but when asked to produce the reports had to admit that they had in fact not been carried out. [Another interpretation might be they were so damning that he was fearful of publishing them but that would be conspiracy stuff].

The fact that the UK negotiators have yet to supply any papers showing details of what they wish to achieve outside of patisserie products might indicate a lack of coherent resolve.

The UK side are waiting for the EU to tell them what to do, or are unable to tell themselves what to do.

and the picture of them with no papers on the desk, don't forget that.:rolleyes:

Sam Russell

Aegir wrote: »

and the picture of them with no papers on the desk, don't forget that.:rolleyes:

Who could ever forget that? A photo op that went horribly wrong - and they have not improved since.

Rjd2

Harika wrote: »

They have thought it through and know it too well, but on the other hand they are career politicians and want to get to the top. That’s why after David Cameron resigned they lined up to the post of PM on their CV. Also most of them want to keep in their job, so they bowed to the will of the people and are going through with the will of the people even if they know it is bad for Britain. Cause ignoring the people would mean that at the next re-elections they might be gone.
The likes of Boris Johnson see now the failing Brexit negotiations not as something bad, but as opportunity to rise to the top themselves, that’s why they are actively working against a positive outcome to take the helm. Like if Brexit would be a success TM will be in power for 1-2 more elections and only after that they will get a shot again, while with a bad Brexit, they might have a chance sooner than later.
They don’t care about the British people, only about themselves, that’s why we won’t see an exit of Brexit.

While I think that might be a little extreme, its widely regarded the reason that Gove stabbed Johnson in the back because he simply did not believe he was committed to leave whatsoever. Johnson jumped on the leave bandwagon to further his career. The likes of Gove and even Mogg at least have been genuinely wanting to leave the EU for many many years.

Heck Mogg's father was a huge European sceptic.

When May is pushed I suspect the leavers will line up behind someone like Gove and remainers possibly someone like Rudd or Davidson. No camp will or should trust Johnson.

Leroy42

Aegir wrote: »

and you have evidence to support this?

Did you not hear Mr Banks in the parliament yesterday, or Davies at the select committee?

Aegir wrote: »

what evidence? are you suggesting the thousands of civil servans engaged in Brexit are doing nothing?

Where is your evidence that they are doing something?

Aegir wrote: »

how can a system take place for something that hasn't happened yet?

So your idea is that nothing should happen until the final deal is signed? That no contingencies should be in place based on May saying they will walk away if they don't get what they want?

Aegir wrote: »

maybe it is, but there is no point publishing it yet, because everything is up in the air until a final decision is made. That final decision hasn't been made yet.

So how come PSNI haven't even been informed of the probables and planning for the likely outcomes?

Aegir wrote: »

Cloak and dagger? why do you call it that? Do you think you should be personally receiving an update form the thousands of civil servants every day on what they are doing?

How terribly trite of you. Of course I don't but head of PSNI thinks they should at least be consulted.

Aegir wrote: »

Do you have any evidence to suggest that the UK isn't reaching out to other countries?

I can't prove a negative, but I have given the example of the PSNI.

Aegir wrote: »

Because you can't see it, it doesn't mean it isn't happening.

And just because you expect it to be happening, doesn't mean that it is. The PM position, and those around is not fixed, and you put forward the reason they have no engaged is because it is not fixed, but you also believe that they are doing all this preparatory work behind the scenes regardless.

Leroy42

Leroy42 wrote: »

Did you not hear Mr Banks in the parliament yesterday, or Davies at the select committee?

I heard Steve Banks. He should learn to enagage brain before mouth, regardless of what he thinks. School boy error there from a wet behind the ears politician

Leroy42 wrote: »

Where is your evidence that they are doing something?

Evidence? I have no hard concrete evidence, other than what I have read in the papers and the simple fact that there is a department dedicated to exiting the eu.

I do have logic though and logic would dictate that a department that employs literally thousands of people is actually doing something, unless you think they are all sat there twiddling their thumbs.

Admittedly, that is often the case with civil servants and nowhere less so than here, but in this case, my logical conclusion is that they are doing something.

Leroy42 wrote: »

So your idea is that nothing should happen until the final deal is signed? That no contingencies should be in place based on May saying they will walk away if they don't get what they want?

Nothing can happen until the final deal is done

A contingency is a provision for a possible outcome of event. Like taking an umbrella out with you if you think it might rain. Your logic though, is that someone isn't carrying an umbrella because they don't have it up, even though it isn't raining.

There may be contingency plans in place, there may be none, but as nothing has actually happened yet, because the UK has not left the eu, those plans can't be put in place, because the future event has not yet happened

Follow?

Leroy42 wrote: »

So how come PSNI haven't even been informed of the probables and planning for the likely outcomes?

Should they have been then?

Leroy42 wrote: »

How terribly trite of you. Of course I don't but head of PSNI thinks they should at least be consulted.

on what? IP law, agricultural legislation, immigration?

Lets face it, the european arrest warrant is probably the one thing that every country in this process will want to keep in place, so I doubtit is thatmuch of an issue.

Leroy42 wrote: »

I can't prove a negative, but I have given the example of the PSNI.

you do know that the PSNI is the Police Service of Northern Ireland, which is a contingent part of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland? it isn't a separate country.

Leroy42 wrote: »

And just because you expect it to be happening, doesn't mean that it is. The PM position, and those around is not fixed, and you put forward the reason they have no engaged is because it is not fixed, but you also believe that they are doing all this preparatory work behind the scenes regardless.

aren't you trying to prove a negative there, despite saying you weren't able to do that?

it is logical. The UK government has put a massive army of people together, heck they take around fifty people over to Brussels for each negotiation. They have recruited over 800 extra civil servants to carry out this task, 5000 alone to work on customs and excise.

It is logical to therefore say that they are actually doing something.

Steve Baker I assume you're both meaning to talk about...

mayo.mick

Maybe this has been posted already? First court challenge over brexit?

"Man challenges extradition to UK due to Brexit"

https://www.rte.ie/amp/937559/

PeadarCo

Aegir wrote:

Lets face it, the european arrest warrant is probably the one thing that every country in this process will want to keep in place, so I doubtit is thatmuch of an issue.

You do understand nothing is agreed at the moment. If things don't change the UK automatically leaves. That means stuff like the European arrest warrant and all goes. We know the EU position. The UKs position based on phase 1 is incoherent. They want to leave the single market and customs union while at the same time having a hard border with an EU member state.

The UK cabinet is still divided. There is no way the civil service can do any coherent preparation given that they don't know what to prepare for.

Also remember there is no urgent need for the EU to do a deal with the UK. As phase 1 showed when push comes to shove the UK has two options pick from the menu the EU has offered or go without a deal. From day one of Brexit that's been the case. The row of the summer was settled in a day.

If the UK does want a hard Brexit they need months to prepare for it otherwise there will be chaos. In this thread there is one very small example now multiple that by thousands similar. If the UK was preparing for a hard Brexit to avoid chaos they have to begin planning and letting people know their plans months in advance. Its not as simple as walking out the door and handing back the keys.

PeadarCo

PeadarCo wrote: »

You do understand nothing is agreed at the moment. If things don't change the UK automatically leaves. That means stuff like the European arrest warrant and all goes. We know the EU position. The UKs position based on phase 1 is incoherent. They want to leave the single market and customs union while at the same time having a hard border with an EU member state.

The UK cabinet is still divided. There is no way the civil service can do any coherent preparation given that they don't know what to prepare for.

Also remember there is no urgent need for the EU to do a deal with the UK. As phase 1 showed when push comes to shove the UK has two options pick from the menu the EU has offered or go without a deal. From day one of Brexit that's been the case. The row of the summer was settled in a day.

If the UK does want a hard Brexit they need months to prepare for it otherwise there will be chaos. In this thread there is one very small example now multiple that by thousands similar. If the UK was preparing for a hard Brexit to avoid chaos they have to begin planning and letting people know their plans months in advance. Its not as simple as walking out the door and handing back the keys.

And your point is?

PeadarCo

Aegir wrote:

And your point is?

The UK is completely unprepared for the outcome of Brexit both in a practical sense and in a political sense. Also not much if anything is being done to prepare the UK. Which means that it either accepts what ever the EU decides(currently that's very politically difficult with hard brexiters having significant influence ) or face a hard brexiters something they have done no preparation for. Any something that can't properly start until the internal political situation/a coherent brexit plan is sorted.

PeadarCo

PeadarCo wrote: »

The UK is completely unprepared for the outcome of Brexit both in a practical sense and in a political sense. Also not much if anything is being done to prepare the UK. Which means that it either accepts what ever the EU decides(currently that's very politically difficult with hard brexiters having significant influence ) or face a hard brexiters something they have done no preparation for. Any something that can't properly start until the internal political situation/a coherent brexit plan is sorted.

And you know that because.,...,?

Gerry T

Aegir wrote:

And you know that because.,...,?

The EU will do nothing, if the UK want a deal they have to table it. Otherwise the UK will be dumped. So we all wait for the UK to table something, but their position is "we're not showing our hand" it's idiotic in my opinion.
That's why it's called a car crash. The UK think there's a negioation. But there isn't, not unless they table something

Sam Russell

Aegir wrote: »

And you know that because.,...,?

A hard brexit with no agreement would mean:

1. No UK trucks going through Dover/Calais because there is no customs infrastructure, and the truck licences will be invalid.

2. No airplanes flying from UK to European airports (other than major ones) and most flights cancelled.

3. The closing of most motor car production within weeks because of lack of parts.

4. If the UK refuse to abide by the phase 1 agreement, then there will be a hard border in Ireland which could cause who knows what.

5. With imports suspended, food shortages, and inflation going wild as a result.

6. The GBP will go into freefall.

7. Sammy Wilson will fill in the forms for an Irish passport.

8. Many other disasters will unfold.

So that will not happen. Sense will prevail and they will stay in the customs union and the single market but call it something else - like Switzerland plus plus plus plus.

Nody

Gerry T wrote: »

The EU will do nothing, if the UK want a deal they have to table it. Otherwise the UK will be dumped. So we all wait for the UK to table something, but their position is "we're not showing our hand" it's idiotic in my opinion.
That's why it's called a car crash. The UK think there's a negioation. But there isn't, not unless they table something

Actually EU will present them the deal to sign which will be a copy and paste of the Canada deal basically because that's beneficial for EU (and UK will at least partially be protected from their own negligence).

As for not showing their hand; they know they don't have a hand or anything else but since they want to pretend to know what they are doing they claim otherwise. Prime example being the secret sector reports as basis for negotiations which would damage UK if shared which turned out to not only exist but be pure last minute copy & paste jobs of zero value. This of course all goes back to the fact that May is so weak as a PM she can't even get her cabinet to even go in some semblance of direction or vision to follow (let alone talk about details) at any time nor the power to actually sack people. People talk about the second term for US presidents as lame ducks but May is way beyond that at this stage.

PeadarCo

Aegir wrote:

And you know that because.,...,?

Because that's what happened on day one of negotiations. The scheduling of the talks was supposed to be the row of the summer. Within a day the UK bowed to EU demands

More seriously look a phase 1. The UK had two options take what the EU were giving or pull out of the talks. The UK surrendered on basically everything, brexit Bill, citizens rights and the Irish border. If they are serious about their promise on the Irish border it means the UK will be staying in the customs union and single market despite all their red lines.

The story of Brexit has been the UK accepting whatever the EU has offered them. At this stage unless they want some massive economic problems many of which have been detailed by other posters phase 2 will be no different.

A hard brexit isn't a threat to the EU because the UK have made no preparations for it and unless they get serious about those preparations inside the next couple of months they won't have time. That's if they haven't already ran out. The threat to walk away is an empty one and the EU knows it. That's not to say it won't happen but it would be a disaster for the UK.

PeadarCo

Aegir wrote:

And your point is?

On point of being politically unprepared. The fact that the UK cabinet don't have an agreed position tells you how unprepared they are. If cabenit can't get agreement how will they get agreement from the rest of the tory party and the DUP. This is something that should been sorted before brexit was triggered. Not after phase 1 of talks and when they have less than year of serious talks to go.

Water John

The divide between hard and soft Brexit may be trashed out in the House of Commons in the next few weeks. Anna Soubry and Ken Clarke may get backed by a wide range incl the Labour Party.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/feb/02/tory-rebels-launch-bid-to-keep-uk-in-customs-union-with-eu

Junkyard Tom

Sam Russell wrote: »

Sense will prevail and they will stay in the customs union and the single market but call it something else.

Which will piss-off the Brexit supporters because they will blame a 'soft' Brexit for any, and all, ills.

Either way, welcome to the disUnited Kingdom - I suspect the trouble is only just beginning.

Peregrinus

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

Which will piss-off the Brexit supporters because they will blame a 'soft' Brexit for any, and all, ills.

Either way, welcome to the disUnited Kingdom - I suspect the trouble is only just beginning.

Nonsense, Tom! Did you not know that the whole point of the brexit referendum was to settle th eissue for a generation? :rolleyes:

Capt'n Midnight

Peregrinus wrote: »

Nonsense, Tom! Did you not know that the whole point of the brexit referendum was to settle th eissue for a generation? :rolleyes:

The issue of who was to lead the Tory party ?

Labour are going though the same in-fight for control of the party for the next generation.

And it's the have-nots who will suffer most from Brexit.




More mud throwing
Jacob Rees-Mogg says Treasury 'fiddling figures' on Brexit

joeysoap

The Labour Party have an open goal in front of them, but they persist on passing the ball sideways.

Enzokk

joeysoap wrote: »

The Labour Party have an open goal in front of them, but they persist on passing the ball sideways.

I don't think it is that simple. I think if a new referendum was run again now remain would win, but it would be 54-46% at most as there is still a lot of EU resentment out there. Labour, while not all of their support is leavers unlike a lot of Tory support, will still need to depend on that vote to get in to government. So it's a bit like Michael Jordan in his prime when asked why he doesn't get into politics, he replied Republicans buy sneakers too. This is even before considering the absolute mauling the party will receive in the tabloids for everyday if they came out in support of remaining in the EU. Its a deep hole the UK is in and I only see tough decisions to try and get them out of it, but I also see almost insurmountable hurdles in the way as well.

I think the analogy is more apt that the Conservatives are playing the ball in front of their own net and is at risk of scoring an own goal. Labour is sitting back and letting them to it.

listermint

Enzokk wrote: »

I don't think it is that simple. I think if a new referendum was run again now remain would win, but it would be 54-46% at most as there is still a lot of EU resentment out there. Labour, while not all of their support is leavers unlike a lot of Tory support, will still need to depend on that vote to get in to government. So it's a bit like Michael Jordan in his prime when asked why he doesn't get into politics, he replied Republicans buy sneakers too. This is even before considering the absolute mauling the party will receive in the tabloids for everyday if they came out in support of remaining in the EU. Its a deep hole the UK is in and I only see tough decisions to try and get them out of it, but I also see almost insurmountable hurdles in the way as well.

I think the analogy is more apt that the Conservatives are playing the ball in front of their own net and is at risk of scoring an own goal. Labour is sitting back and letting them to it.

I honestly don't think that's true.

I really don't believe it would win I'd be confident of a defeat narrow enough but definitely a defeat. The youth would sour the vote as they simply didn't turn out last time as thought it didn't matter it was a non runner.

I really can't see that happening again at all.