Brexit discussion thread III

LeinsterDub

devnull wrote: »

Arlene also has no plans to come to London just yet.

A vote of no confidence would draw here and the DUP out of their hiding place. I'm surprised Labour haven't called one yet.

Enzokk

LeinsterDub wrote: »

A vote of no confidence would draw here and the DUP out of their hiding place. I'm surprised Labour haven't called on yet.

Seems that the DUP has requested a seat at the Brexit negotiation table. Entry at 11h40 on the following link.

DUP Arlene Foster was due to ask Theresa May if her party can have a seat at the Brexit negotiations.

Foster was likely to raise that prospect with the prime minister today. Ahead of her phone call to May, the former first minister of Northern Ireland said:

"There is a need for us to be directly involved."

LeinsterDub

Enzokk wrote: »

following link.

What's the term in the GFA, unimpeachable nutraltaliy or something of that order? A seat at the table would effectively put the DUP into government.

Bar_Prop

LeinsterDub wrote: »

A vote of no confidence would draw here and the DUP out of their hiding place. I'm surprised Labour haven't called one yet.

I very much doubt it would pass, apart from anything else I don't believe Labour want the reins right now.

lawred2

Enzokk wrote: »

Seems that the DUP has requested a seat at the Brexit negotiation table. Entry at 11h40 on the following link.

DUP Arlene Foster was due to ask Theresa May if her party can have a seat at the Brexit negotiations.

Foster was likely to raise that prospect with the prime minister today. Ahead of her phone call to May, the former first minister of Northern Ireland said:

"There is a need for us to be directly involved."

Well then all NI parties should be at the table.

What Arlene is seeking here would directly contravene the terms of the GFA.

I hope she's publicly made aware of that.

devnull

lawred2 wrote: »

Well then all NI parties should be at the table.

What Arlene is seeking here would directly contravene the terms of the GFA.

I hope she's publicly made aware of that.

The DUP didn't agree to the GFA in the first place so I doubt that it would bother them.

LeinsterDub

devnull wrote: »

The DUP didn't agree to the GFA in the first place so I doubt that it would bother them.

Basically everyone else did however, Ireland , UK, EU , the people of the North.

Dubh Geannain

lawred2 wrote: »

Well then all NI parties should be at the table.

What Arlene is seeking here would directly contravene the terms of the GFA.

I hope she's publicly made aware of that.

So then we can send Halligan or Ross too

FrancieBrady

devnull wrote: »

The DUP didn't agree to the GFA in the first place so I doubt that it would bother them.

Didn't stop them hiding behind it when the chips were down.

IMO it doesn't matter whether they did or didn't. it would be the UK contravening it by accepting the DUP on to de team.

devnull

Labour first question in PMQs was about Nurseries.

Professor Moriarty

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

It is a possibility, however unlikely, that the UK could end paying 50 billion for a facile and meaningless Brexit. The worst of both worlds for the Brexiteers.

Not fair. They would have spent the €50bn in any case.

That is a very important point to note, the 'divorce bill' is a settling of accounts. Money that would have been spent over the course of their continuance within the EU.

There is enough downsides and negatives to Brexit without having to trump up additional examples.

Chips Lovell

This one has to run a bit for political reasons.

Simply saying that regulatory alignment was intended to apply to all of the UK, not just Northern Ireland, isn't going make the DUP go away. After they made a song and dance about the draft agreement, they can't be seen to simply shrug and say: "Ah OK, carry on so".

There has to be a bit of theatre and they have to be seen to extract something, even if its additional text in the agreement reassuring them that stuff that was never going to happen in the first place, definitely isn't going to happen.

ancapailldorcha

People may need to modulate their expectations of Jeremy Corbyn. He did vote for this after all:

https://twitter.com/timfarron/status/938192150327644161?s=17

devnull

Henry Bellingham (Tory) asked for an update on Brexit Negotiations and an issue in his constituency.

TM said that they are ensuring we can build houses and country wants to see and principles and text is being discussed on the progress of the negotiations and the EU will decide if progress has been made. And those talks ensure cross border trade, constitution integrity of UK.

She confirmed UK are leaving EU, Single Market and Customs union but will do what is right in interests of the whole of UK and nothing is agreed till everything is.

devnull

JC said International Trade Secretary said the negotiations would be easiest in history.

TM responded by refering to her last answer and very good progress has been made, but they are focusing on trade negoatiaitons for the future and already as part of EU, when leave not on same basis as say Canada, then we expect we will get a deal right for the whole UK, but need to move on to phase two, and why did his MPs vote against being able to do that.

devnull

JC: PM should look behind herself, she hasn't convinced many, yesterday one Tory donor said that yesterday proved beyond doubt that PM is weak and incompetent and effecting UK, not complimentary about front bench, bunch of jellyfish masquerading as cabinet.

This is coalition of Chaos, start of the week all going so well, PM scheduled lunch with Juncker to come back to house and present her deal. On way back together forget to share with DUP, surely 1.5bn reasons why PM shouldn't have forgotten to do that.

She seems a little rattled and using lots of robotic phrases IMHO. TM also trying to turn heat on Labour and exposing divisions in Labour about single market and Customs Union. Says Labour have no plan which is quite ironic.

Leroy42

Deleted User wrote: »

Not fair. They would have spent the €50bn in any case.

That is a very important point to note, the 'divorce bill' is a settling of accounts. Money that would have been spent over the course of their continuance within the EU.

There is enough downsides and negatives to Brexit without having to trump up additional examples.

All true, which makes you wonder why the UK government, many in the media, many MP's and the likes if Solo have been so against it from the start.

Patel mentioned last week that the UK should tell the EU to fob off.

If only the UK had more people like you then they wouldn't have wasted all that time.

But a crucial point is that this £50bn was never alluded to during the campaign for the leave side. They very much sold the story leaving the EU would free up £350m pw, and never mentioned this.

So whilst it is true, it has to be judged in relation to what was promised, and in that case it is €50bn more

devnull

TM says that nothing has changed from Lancaster House and Florence Speech and in negotiations, says there is no hard border greeted by shouts of "HOW" from around the house, goes on to say she will do that by respecting the UK is one and a whole and protecting internal market and said that how she does that is the whole point of the second phase of the negotiation and they have a plan and Corbyn has none.

Appears to be saying that they cannot get agreement on Phase One on Irish Border issue, so they should just ignore it and move on to Phase Two regardless.

LeinsterDub

May says it is the same position the government took in the Lancaster House speech, and in the Florence speech. It wants no hard border, while respecting the constitutional integrity and internal market of the UK. To those Labour MPs shouting ‘how’, she says that is part of the phase two negotiations.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2017/dec/06/david-davis-questioned-by-brexit-committee-about-impact-assessments-politics-live


Penny is starting to drop .

devnull

On question of if the documents exists from JC, TM Says house asked for 58 Sectoral Impact assessments, there were not any they were sectoral analysis over 800 pages has been published and to select committee and we will not give running commentary on negotiations.

Continuing with lots of soundbites and play on words and making claims and statements and refusing to back them up with how it seems

lawred2

devnull wrote: »

The DUP didn't agree to the GFA in the first place so I doubt that it would bother them.

So just the same as the majority in NI voting against Brexit. They don't seem to care about that either.

devnull

Jim Shannon DUP just asked if TM can give assurances that nothing will be done constitutionally, politically, economically and regulatory to seperate NI from the rest of the UK.

TM, yes there area areas where specific arrangements between NI and ROI such as single energy market, but we want to ensure no hard border, working to respect internal market of UK and constitutional integrity.

Important part of PMQs seem to be that Irish border will be dealt with by the second phase EU-UK discussion according to TM, which is effectively once more trying to kick it down the road.

Professor Moriarty

Deleted User wrote: »

Not fair. They would have spent the €50bn in any case.

That is a very important point to note, the 'divorce bill' is a settling of accounts. Money that would have been spent over the course of their continuance within the EU.

There is enough downsides and negatives to Brexit without having to trump up additional examples.

You miss a crucial difference. They will get very little in return for their 50bn by leaving. It's like leaving your house after a divorce but continuing to pay for groceries, electricity, gas etc.

Bar_Prop

devnull wrote: »

Important part of PMQs seem to be that Irish border will be dealt with by the second phase EU-UK discussion according to TM, which is effectively once more trying to kick it down the road.

That would appear to be at odds with the EU view although I suspect they'll be badgered into relenting.

FrancieBrady

From the Guardian Liveblog.

It is quite a performance by May.

PMQs - Snap verdict: Just when you thought our politics couldn’t get much more dispiriting, that PMQs probably set a new low. It is supposed to be a forum where the prime minister is held to account, but rarely have exchanges at PMQs seemed so ill-matched to the gravity of the issues facing the country. Corbyn tends to avoid Brexit at PMQs, and you can see why. While his questions about, say, housing or universal credit have an urgency or passion to them, today’s felt a bit more half-hearted and, despite May facing the biggest crisis of the Brexit talks, he did not manage to unsettle her at all. But if Corbyn was ineffective, May was complacent - and borderline delusional. “Very good progress” in the Brexit talks? Even the Daily Mail couldn’t swallow that. She seemed oblivious to the real prospect of the talks ending very badly indeed. She had nothing new to announce, but there were some vague hints in what she said that she thinks the solution to the Irish border problem will be simply to delay the whole thing until phase two of the talks. She kept stressing that the border was a phase two issue, even though Dublin and the EU want key assurances on this bolted down in phase one.

Professor Moriarty

devnull wrote: »

On question of if the documents exists from JC, TM Says house asked for 58 Sectoral Impact assessments, there were not any they were sectoral analysis over 800 pages has been published and to select committee and we will not give running commentary on negotiations.

Continuing with lots of soundbites and play on words and making claims and statements and refusing to back them up with how it seems

I was disappointed that Davis didn't go full Rumsfeld on the assessments:

There are known knowns. These are things we know that we know. There are known unknowns. That is to say, there are things that we know we don't know. But there are also unknown unknowns. There are things we don't know we don't know.

Panrich

Bar_Prop wrote: »

That would appear to be at odds with the EU view although I suspect they'll be badgered into relenting.

I cannot under any circumstances see the EU agree to kick this can down the road to prop up this shambles of a Government. If anything, they will get more hard line.

devnull

Bar_Prop wrote: »

That would appear to be at odds with the EU view although I suspect they'll be badgered into relenting.

She was almost delusional at times truth be told during that even saying at one point that she felt very good progress had been made and didn't seem to think there was much of a problem and was oblivious to the reality.

I would expect to see that there will now be an attempt to deflect the blame to the EU if it's announced that sufficient progress has not been made, bear in mind that as I posted this morning, overnight the likes of IDS have been trying to peddle this line to the Leave wing of the Tory party.

They are the ones who agreed to this timetable and the first around of talks and now because it's not working out for them they're trying to skip parts of it because it's too hard. Diddums is all I have to say, they made their bed and now they need to lie in it but I suspect they'll try and blame someone else.

ancapailldorcha

If all of this is happening over Ireland, a piddling nation of not even 5 million people how on earth is the government going to deal with a 1.3 billion economic titan like India?

Leroy42

So we see from today that the UK position, as stated by the PM, is to go back on the agreement to deal with Phase 1 issues in phase 1 and instead to restart at phase 2.

Her other line, nothing is agreed until everything is agreed, means that Leo should not agree to anything and veto it now. The UK have no intention of sticking to anything they might say now as it could change based on phase 2.

UK do not want a negotiated split, they want a deal on their terms only, except they have no idea why they are doing it, what the end result will be.

Professor Moriarty

devnull wrote: »

She was almost delusional at times truth be told during that even saying at one point that she felt very good progress had been made and didn't seem to think there was much of a problem and was oblivious to the reality.

I would expect to see that there will now be an attempt to deflect the blame to the EU if it's announced that sufficient progress has not been made, bear in mind that as I posted this morning, overnight the likes of IDS have been trying to peddle this line to the Leave wing of the Tory party.

They are the ones who agreed to this timetable and the first around of talks and now because it's not working out for them they're trying to skip parts of it because it's too hard. Diddums is all I have to say, they made their bed and now they need to lie in it but I suspect they'll try and blame someone else.

TBF, I can't see Fox, IDS, Davis, Johnson and May coming out and admitting that it's their fault that Britain is in this mess. No politician has ever accepted responsibility for a mistake of this magnitude.

Bar_Prop

Panrich wrote: »

I cannot under any circumstances see the EU agree to kick this can down the road to prop up this shambles of a Government. If anything, they will get more hard line.

Oh I dunno.

It really is a walk away issue.

Zubeneschamali

Blowfish wrote: »

All they did was produce reports describing what their current economy looks like. They didn't even attempt to look at how Brexit will impact it in the future.

Boardsie Ambro25 was actually consulted, and says yes, the research covered ways in which different Brexit scenarios would affect the sector.

So if they only produced reports describing the current economy, it is because someone [cough]Davis[/cough] told them to hide the impact assessments.

danganabu

Berserker wrote: »

The EU will trot off into the sunset and tell the RoI to do one, IMF style, if problems arise.

Berserker wrote: »

The cost of manning that bloody border and the actual manning of it will be a pain. Totally agree about telling the EU or whoever makes the final call on it to f**k off and pay for it.

So in affect the EU should tell itself to Fcuk off?? Why is it so hard for people to realise that this is not the UK V IE, it is the UK V EU?

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

If all of this is happening over Ireland, a piddling nation of not even 5 million people how on earth is the government going to deal with a 1.3 billion economic titan like India?

The population of the EU is 750 Million, slightly more that 5 Million.

devnull

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

TBF, I can't see Fox, IDS, Davis, Johnson and May coming out and admitting that it's their fault that Britain is in this mess. No politician has ever accepted responsibility for a mistake of this magnitude.

Of course, but this is a large part of why the UK is where it is now, there has been a tendency for years to push blame onto others to avoid having to take any responsibility for your actions.

For years it was easier to blame foreigners for all of the problems in the country and say they were all on benefits, criminals etc even though it wasn't the truth, because it was convenient and kept the heat off the politicians since people would blame the foreigners rather than the people who were actually responsible such as those who were in charge.

The EU has been used as a massive scapegoat in the UK for a number of years led by a very right wing press with links to the Tory party in order to pull the wool over peoples eyes to what has really been happening in healthcare, education and public services just to name a few sectors.

For example a friend of mine worked in a hospital and bed capacity was cut by the government by 15% to save costs and numbers of immigrants attending increased by little over 1%. Someone complained to the politician about the hospital being overcrowded and it was presented as the issues the NHS faces because of too many foreigners.

phater phagan

On an aside to the same subject. The BBC radio 3 news summary today worded the report thus " the D.U.P. rejected the deal to avoid a hard border with the Republic." It's poorly worded - makes it sound that the D.U.P. wants to be in the customs union and that everyone else wants a hard border; which of course is exactly the opposite of what they want.
There are probably people in Britain wondering who the hell the D.U.P are in the last few days.

ancapailldorcha

danganabu wrote: »

The population of the EU is 750 Million, slightly more that 5 Million.

Ireland`s position directly equates to that of the EU. Ireland can torpedo the deal if it is not satisfied. Deals with other countries will work in the same way.

Bar_Prop

phater phagan wrote: »

On an aside to the same subject. The BBC radio 3 news summary today worded the report thus " the D.U.P. rejected the deal to avoid a hard border with the Republic." It's poorly worded - makes it sound that the D.U.P. wants to be in the customs union and that everyone else wants a hard border; which of course is exactly the opposite of what they want.
There are probably people in Britain wondering who the hell the D.U.P are in the last few days.

I sometimes wonder if things like this are poorly worded, or an attempt to convince us that Oceania has always been at war with Eastasia.

There's so much being said which is duplicitous that it's very difficult to tell what is real.

LeinsterDub

devnull wrote: »

She was almost delusional at times truth be told during that even saying at one point that she felt very good progress had been made and didn't seem to think there was much of a problem and was oblivious to the reality.

At times it appears she's working on the assumption that utterances in the UK are not broadcast worldwide and vice versa

phater phagan

Re the hospital situation in your post Devnull - It makes you wonder, since, without its foreign health care workers, the NHS and its hospitals would collapse.

danganabu

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Ireland`s position directly equates to that of the EU. Ireland can torpedo the deal if it is not satisfied. Deals with other countries will work in the same way.

This is an EU issue not an IE issue, the border between NI and IE is an EU border.
Each and every MS can veto the deal if not satisfied so that point is rather superflous.

It must be remembered that this will not be as simple( I use the term loosley) as having Dublin, London and Brussels all happy with any deal, all of the 17 OMS that have a border with a third country will want something similar for themselves, expecailly the MS that have a border with Switzerland and Norway. The Swiss and the Norwegians will surely kick up a fuss as well.

Professor Moriarty

In the context of the Tories buying the DUP off, a SNP MP said this during PMQs: "DUP MPs are worth more each than Ronaldo"

Leroy42

phater phagan wrote: »

Re the hospital situation in your post Devnull - It makes you wonder, since, without its foreign health care workers, the NHS and its hospitals would collapse.

It already is. Applications from EU states for positions within the NHS have dropped drastically since the vote.

So the UK are now faced with having to go outside the EU to bring in workers or face bigger shortages.

Leroy42

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

In the context of the Tories buying the DUP off, a SNP MP said this during PMQs: "DUP MPs are worth more each than Ronaldo"

And TM reply was telling. She said that funding for Scotland had increased in the last budget. In other words, we are keeping all of you so shut up.

The reality of the 'United' Kingdom is being laid bare before our eyes

Professor Moriarty

Leroy42 wrote: »

And TM reply was telling. She said that funding for Scotland had increased in the last budget. In other words, we are keeping all of you so shut up.

The reality of the 'United' Kingdom is being laid bare before our eyes

Much less pro rata though. To say it's fraying at the edges would be an understatement.

ancapailldorcha

danganabu wrote: »

This is an EU issue not an IE issue, the border between NI and IE is an EU border.
Each and every MS can veto the deal if not satisfied so that point is rather superflous.

It must be remembered that this will not be as simple( I use the term loosley) as having Dublin, London and Brussels all happy with any deal, all of the 17 OMS that have a border with a third country will want something similar for themselves, expecailly the MS that have a border with Switzerland and Norway. The Swiss and the Norwegians will surely kick up a fuss as well.

This is an Irish issue and it`s one that`s integral to the process. I don`t know what OMS is supposed to be here. I googled it and got nothing.

At the moment, the UK and the EU are harmonised in terms of regulations. This is the easiest deal they`ll ever do and they can`t even get it right, going so far as to begin departure proceedings before having any sort of a plan.

The other EU countries approved the negotiating timeline. Norway and Switzerland have shown no signs of agitating for anything AFAIK.

devnull

Jacob Rees Mogg essentially just took a little dig at Theresa May by asking her if she will put a new coat of paint on her red lines as they are starting to look a little bit pink.

Clear sign that the Brexiteers in her party are not going to allow her to compromise with the DUP.

Bar_Prop

devnull wrote: »

Jacob Rees Mogg essentially just took a little dig at Theresa May by asking her if she will put a new coat of paint on her red lines as they are starting to look a little bit pink.

Clear sign that the Brexiteers in her party are not going to allow her to compromise with the DUP.

The insistence today that the border question is a Phase 2 issue is fairly clear evidence that she isn't going to attempt a compromise.

Not that there would be much point in trying to be fair to her.

danganabu

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

This is an Irish issue and it`s one that`s integral to the process. I don`t know what OMS is supposed to be here. I googled it and got nothing.

At the moment, the UK and the EU are harmonised in terms of regulations. This is the easiest deal they`ll ever do and they can`t even get it right, going so far as to begin departure proceedings before having any sort of a plan.

The other EU countries approved the negotiating timeline. Norway and Switzerland have shown no signs of agitating for anything AFAIK.

Apologies, OMS = Other Memeber States.

How is it an Irish issue, what did Ireland do or change?

Yes at the moment they are harmonised, UK want to change that, thus the issue, the biggest stumbling block from Day one has been that the UK don't actually know what they want themselves, its like playing poker against someone who hasn't a clue what they are doing, inititally it is very difficult as it can be tricky to figure out what they are doing because they dont actually know themselves, but ultimately the strong player will win out and to continue the metaphor the EU27 hold all the cards.

Norway and Switzerland have remained quiet becasue there is nothing to object to yet! Both countries contribute handsomely to EU budgets as a trade off for their favourable arrangements, do you honestly think at the next round of negotiations regarding these contributions they won't play the card of ''well if its ok for the UK, we want it too''

murphaph

LeinsterDub wrote: »

What's the term in the GFA, unimpeachable nutraltaliy or something of that order? A seat at the table would effectively put the DUP into government.

Yeah this is a clear breach of the GFA.

Solo, what do you make of Davis' misleading of parliament (either back then or now)?