Brexit discussion thread III

Skedaddle

Without a change of Government in the UK, the DUP hold the Tories over a barrel. You can forget any pragmatic solution. It'll be a hard border and NI economic collapse before they see sense.

I think we're finally seeing the kind of Brexit they're going to go for: A fatalistic, leap into the dark type of Brexit, straight out of the annals of Black Adder goes Forth and General Melchett.

irishash

Water John wrote: »

Lib Dems and SNP are the least likely to prop up TM. Both are pro EU. Neither want any Brexit.

But even both parties realise the need for a pragmatic solution. They are not as fanatical as the DUP. They could see reason even though reason means Brexit. I grant you it is really unlikely, but not impossible

Skedaddle

irishash wrote: »

But even both parties realise the need for a pragmatic solution. They are not as fanatical as the DUP. They could see reason even though reason means Brexit. I grant you it is really unlikely, but not impossible

The problem is the Tories only care about holding power and many of them are as fanatical about this as the DUP. There hasn't been any indication that they'll back down or soften their stance, if anything as the date gets near, that faction is becoming even more hardcore.

At this stage, I think they'll deliver Brexit and a lost decade to go along with it. It's sheer stupidity, but that's blind nationalism for you.

My view of it at this stage is Ireland just needs to pull in the maximum amount of Brexit-fleeing business and be utterly ruthless about it. We have a lot to lose in agriculture and sectors that are exposed, and we need to make up for it by just pulling in everything on the positive side of this that we can get.

When push comes to shove, they really don't give a toss about us as a neighbour. We're just an obstacle in the way of their fantasies of a glorious Brexit.

They're quite prepared to bluster some kind of unworkable nonsense together as a solution to the border. Anything that can get them onto the next and final stages of negotiations with the EU.

Leroy42

I think the definitive, and rapid, response to Boris' speech by the EU is quite telling.

Prior to this they have tended to be a bit stand-offish, not wanting to get directly involved and allow the process to take shape.

They are clearly exasperated by this continued narrative that the EU is evil and holding back the UK, yet at the same time complaining that the EU won't let the UK have the goodies that they offer to the members of the EU.

Chips Lovell

The UK government's position is unclear because the Conservative party is still at war with itself over what that position should be. Johnson's speech wasn't for the EU or for the electorate. It's purpose is winning that war by trying to box his opponents in. If he appears all patriotic, disagreeing with him makes you appear unpatriotic.

Zubeneschamali

Carrots!

https://twitter.com/MichaelPDeacon/status/963755157094850560

Professor Moriarty

John Gregg - political reporter on Sky - just said in a discussion about Brexit that May has a lot of people to keep happy including the Irish who are seen as allies in the Brexit negotiations. While I understand his point, with friends like us who needs enemies.

Water John

Great rebuttal by Gina Miller
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/feb/14/boris-johnson-brexit-speech

'He told us, go whistle.'

Capt'n Midnight

Aegir wrote: »

the hard border will be the least of Ireland's worries to be honest. The economy will tank over night and the last recession will look like a minor hiccup.

No it won't.
The impact on Ireland will be bad, but many UK regions will suffer more.

https://dbei.gov.ie/en/Publications/Publication-files/Ireland-and-the-Impacts-of-Brexit.pdf

Based on our modelling, Irish GDP will be 2.8 per cent lower than the non-Brexit baseline
level in 2030 in the EEA scenario and 4.3 per cent lower than this baseline in the customs
union scenario or FTA scenario. Under the WTO scenario, GDP would 7.0 per cent lower
than the non-Brexit baseline level of GDP in 2030 if UK regulation diverges to the full extent of non-FTA partners

Given the current attitude of the "cakers" we should make it quite clear that if they want to push us off the cliff we'll take them with us. With the UK delaying so much there's every chance we'd be able to use the veto.


European Union grows at fastest pace for 10 years The 28-strong EU expanded by 2.5% in 2017

LeinsterDub

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

John Gregg - political reporter on Sky - just said in a discussion about Brexit that May has a lot of people to keep happy including the Irish who are seen as allies in the Brexit negotiations. While I understand his point, with friends like us who needs enemies.

When he says allies he means while we have a gun to their head they have a gun to our head too. Unlike for example Slovakia who to be honest could just torpedo the entire thing just because and be none the poorer.

Capt'n Midnight

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

The Japanese specifically set up plants in the UK because:

1) It was in the EU
2) There was a pool of car workers from the days of Leyland etc.
3) The UK market was less hostile to Japanese cars than the Continent, where Germany/France/Italy have their own car industries to protect.

2) and 3) still apply, there are skilled workers and a local market.

With 80% of cars being exported and domestic sales down and margins down because of offers and scrapage the Local Market won't keep the factories open.

It's all about export and 56% goes to the EU
The US at 14.5% and China at 6.5% can be expected to do hard deals post Brexit, because they can and historically it's what they do..

Next it's Turkey at 3.1% but they are in the EU common market so they can't do a deal, and they have their own car industry too. Car makers could move there and stay in the CU btw, or any of the Eastern EU countries.


The rest of the world accounts for less than a fifth of the exports, and the UK needs to negotiate good trade deals with each and every one.


https://www.smmt.co.uk/2017/01/17-year-high-british-car-manufacturing-global-demand-hits-record-levels/

Infini

I would be honest the way I see it more and more each day they're seemingly looking like they're INTENTIONALLY setting up a Hard Brexit and are just wasting time until 29/3/19. Way I see as much as we want to be nice to them if they're intent on damaging our country both politically and economically they need to be given a serious schooling in what they're in for.

As for the DUP they're just incompetent and idiotic IMO, they just refuse to agree because they got influence in Westminster and they need to be shredded when things go south and the real damage begins to hit home. If anything I would insist at this point any deal they might get is dependent on a Sea Border as well because they refuse to even negotiate in good faith.

Professor Moriarty

LeinsterDub wrote: »

When he says allies he means while we have a gun to their head they have a gun to our head too. Unlike for example Slovakia who to be honest could just torpedo the entire thing just because and be none the poorer.

Slovakia might on their day. In fact, anybody could. The pesky Walloons have form on this kind of thing. Careful now.

Dont be at yourself

It’s abundantly clear that the UK as a whole is aiming for a low-regulation economy outside the CU/single market. This for sure is the final death knell for industry and manufacturing in northern England, and will further concentrate the economy on London.

The only remaining question is really how they will navigate their phase one commitments, in particular in relation to Northern Ireland. The choice now seems to be a sea border, or reneging on the phase 1 commitment. As some level of transition and trade deal is a basic requirement — no matter how self-sabotaging the UK government may be — we’re surely looking at the Tories attempting to sell out the DUP and acquiescing to special status for NI. But then DUP could collapse the government, so it’s a total mess...

steddyeddy

Dont be at yourself wrote: »

It’s abundantly clear that the UK as a whole is aiming for a low-regulation economy outside the CU/single market. This for sure is the final death knell for industry and manufacturing in northern England, and will further concentrate the economy on London.

The only remaining question is really how they will navigate their phase one commitments, in particular in relation to Northern Ireland. The choice now seems to be a sea border, or reneging on the phase 1 commitment. As some level of transition and trade deal is a basic requirement — no matter how self-sabotaging the UK government may be — we’re surely looking at the Tories attempting to sell out the DUP and acquiescing to special status for NI. But then DUP could collapse the government, so it’s a total mess...

Unless they get a special trade deal for services, the city is going to take a massive hit.

Skedaddle

steddyeddy wrote: »

Unless they get a special trade deal for services, the city is going to take a massive hit.

They're not going to get one as there's absolutely no interest, whatsoever, in doing so for the EU side. Not only that but the removal of the City of London from the European system, gives the European regulatory authorities and the ECB far more control over how the system operates and would be hoped to possibly help to prevent another 2008 style credit crunch.

The European institutions are not really in the mood for light touch City style regulation

In reality, the City of London being gone, just means the Eurozone can consolidate in peace.

ancapailldorcha

Dont be at yourself wrote: »

It’s abundantly clear that the UK as a whole is aiming for a low-regulation economy outside the CU/single market. This for sure is the final death knell for industry and manufacturing in northern England, and will further concentrate the economy on London.

The only remaining question is really how they will navigate their phase one commitments, in particular in relation to Northern Ireland. The choice now seems to be a sea border, or reneging on the phase 1 commitment. As some level of transition and trade deal is a basic requirement — no matter how self-sabotaging the UK government may be — we’re surely looking at the Tories attempting to sell out the DUP and acquiescing to special status for NI. But then DUP could collapse the government, so it’s a total mess...

I don't think the UK as a whole is aiming for this, just a portion of the Conservative party which happens to be wielding a sizeable amount of power at the moment and is driven primarily by ideology.

A low-regulation economy would presumably be designed to attract foreign investment but this is just classic cognitive dissonance. The UK is beside the world#s most lucrative trading bloc. Brexit will either reduce the market that British-based businesses can service by 80-90% in which case you'll have a serious economic shock at a time when economies all around the world should be well into recovery or the Singapore dream will be murdered by the common sense idea of taking the EEA approach to Brexit. I'm starting to think that the latter is more likely. No amount of tabloid propaganda is going to protect the Conservatives from angry voters who see their jobs moving abroad. Bear in mind that the current government took only 42% of the vote so that propaganda isn't exactly terribly effective as things stand and this is with the current open goal Theresa May can't see to exploit in the Labour party.

Skedaddle

I think though there's an unreality in the air at the moment. They're more or less living on borrowed time as the markets have, to date, been reserving their judgement, assuming that there's going to be some kind of last minute collapse of the push towards a hard Brexit. However, as that likelihood starts to look more remote, you're going to see contingencies kick in and sentiment shift.

At present, they're also getting all the benefits of the EU single market and customs union, with a currency that has been significantly devalued by the Brexit risk pricing. So, they're seeing a temporary blip in exports and so on.

The political fantasy hasn't yet felt the economic reality of what they're doing.

My major concern is that when you do get a market shift, it could be very dramatic and I think it's likely to happen sooner rather than later, particularly with the recent volatility and the end of the Trump honeymoon period too.

I think the markets have really given the UK a huge benefit of the doubt on this, in a way that they would almost definitely not have afforded to many other countries, particularly ones that have had track records of instability.

Water John

The stock market and finance sector will at some stage, take a negative turn in the UK. That will happen far ahead of the job losses.
Just see you beat me Skedaddle.

Skedaddle

Water John wrote: »

The stock market and finance sector will at some stage, take a negative turn in the UK. That will happen far ahead of the job losses.

I think 'some stage' is likely to be fairly soon, the way things are going. There's only so much stupid you can ignore.

The question is: will that tip the political arguments in favour of remain? Or, will it just get a hardline "project fear" accusation type approach which will just have all the brexiteers jumping on it as a conspiracy to derail their glorious Brexit?

Infini

It'll start by the end of next month the way things are going. Buisness's are preparing to deploy contingency plans after that if there's no sign of a deal and I can't see it happening because the ones in London are incompetent, Drunk on Ideology idiots (cancerous salt of the earth IMO) and a weak PM. The more this unfolds the more this is apparent its a complete trainwreck in progress.

road_high

I think until the ordinary “Joe soap” in England starts to feel the practical negative effects of Brexit then there’s still a huge degree of indifference going on. Thing is, this won’t really be felt until actual Brexit has occurred.
Currently a bit of a false dawn going on with the weakened sterling boosting UK exports.

Water John

If the financial markets go hostile, the journalists will have questions and proof, that spoofers cannot explain away.
If journalists, and you still have BBC, ITV and Sky, will smell and chase, blood.

Peregrinus

Harika wrote: »

We should create a pool how many days or hours it will take after the end of the transition period, until someone starts to blame the EU

What do you mean, after the end of the transition period? This is already happening now; it has been all along. Brexiters blame the EU for not magicking up a cakeist solution to the Brexiters' problem, and this is partly about positining themselves so that when Brexit works out badly in practice they can say its the EU's fault for denying the UK the Brexit it deserved.

steddyeddy

road_high wrote: »

I think until the ordinary “Joe soap” in England starts to feel the practical negative effects of Brexit then there’s still a huge degree of indifference going on. Thing is, this won’t really be felt until actual Brexit has occurred.
Currently a bit of a false dawn going on with the weakened sterling boosting UK exports.

But when Joe feels the effects will he/she attribute them to Brexit or blame the big, bad, EU.

BonnieSituation

Water John wrote: »

If the financial markets go hostile, the journalists will have questions and proof, that spoofers cannot explain away.
If journalists, and you still have BBC, ITV and Sky, will smell and chase, blood.

What makes you think that they will? They haven't covered themselves in glory over the last 2 years. Or 4 years of you want to go back to indyref1.

There's enough of a whiff of BS about everything the Tories gave done thus far and no one is nailing them properly.

Peregrinus

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

John Gregg - political reporter on Sky - just said in a discussion about Brexit that May has a lot of people to keep happy including the Irish who are seen as allies in the Brexit negotiations. While I understand his point, with friends like us who needs enemies.

No, no, we really are the UK's friends. A prosperous and successful UK is good for Ireland and we'll do everything we can to facilitate that; it's in our interests.

The present problem is not that we are not good friends to the UK; it's that the UK is not being an especially good friend to itself.

Peregrinus

Aegir wrote: »

the hard border will be the least of Ireland's worries to be honest. The economy will tank over night and the last recession will look like a minor hiccup.

False dichotomy, I think. The hardening of the RoI/UK border will be the main factor that causes Brexit to impact badly on the Irish economy.

Enzokk

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I don't think the UK as a whole is aiming for this, just a portion of the Conservative party which happens to be wielding a sizeable amount of power at the moment and is driven primarily by ideology.

This has been true for years. The party that voted the UK into the single market via their idol, The Iron Lady, is the party that will tear the UK out come what may. Fine by me, the more Thatcher's positive legacy is torn down the better, she already destroyed a lot of the traditional UK industries without a viable plan for those communities in favour of London. Now her followers and supporters are trying to inadvertently bring down the City of London.

Even their work at minimizing the effects of unions may come tumbling down if Jeremy Corbyn is voted in and he restores some of those powers back to the unions.

LuckyLloyd

Telegraph on Boris’s speech:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/02/14/detail-damned-boris-articulated-coherent-vision-brexit-real/

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/02/14/boris-johnsons-brexit-reflects-best-british-ideals-work-deliver/

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/2018/02/14/boris-johnson-welcome-upbeat-ambassador-brexit/

I read them, but you only need to read the titles. The spin is stunning. Interestingly, the paper had the speech buried from a news item perspective yesterday evening. You get used to reading through the lines - they know it was an unhelpful speech.

BonnieSituation

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

Telegraph on Boris’s speech:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/02/14/detail-damned-boris-articulated-coherent-vision-brexit-real/

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/02/14/boris-johnsons-brexit-reflects-best-british-ideals-work-deliver/

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/2018/02/14/boris-johnson-welcome-upbeat-ambassador-brexit/

I read them, but you only need to read the titles. The spin is stunning. Interestingly, the paper had the speech buried from a news item perspective yesterday evening. You get used to reading through the lines - they know it was an unhelpful speech.

I stopped reading after this gem of a headline:

"Detail be damned. Boris articulated a coherent vision for Brexit with real conviction"

Nody

As always the Telegraph commentary section is there to give you a laugh:

Why has it taken so long for Boris, or anyone for that matter, to stand up in front of the TV cameras and state the bloody obvious about why we voted to get out of the EU and its freedom-killing institutions?

Having won the referendum by a narrow margin in the face of "project fear" we should never miss an opportunity to call out the cowardly risk-aversion, devious lies and misrepresentations of the leave campaign and its fan clubs in the BBC and Whitehall.

Brexit is far from a done deal and not a day should go by without a strong, positive and powerful message going out to all British citizens that this is probably our best and last chance to break free of continental entanglements and reinvent our nation yet again as a player on the stage of a wonderful and dynamic global economic and technological transformation that is taking place. Europe is in decline. Asia is in the ascendant and Africa is where the biggest demographic dividend is to be found during coming decades.

We will continue to buy the excellent vehicles from Germany; we will continue to enjoy fine wines and other produce from France, Italy and Spain. As for everything else, we need a root and branch reassessment of how to source things closer to the point of consumption.

Yes because Europe is further away than Asia when it comes to source things "closer to the point of consumption".

Harika

Peregrinus wrote: »

What do you mean, after the end of the transition period? This is already happening now; it has been all along. Brexiters blame the EU for not magicking up a cakeist solution to the Brexiters' problem, and this is partly about positining themselves so that when Brexit works out badly in practice they can say its the EU's fault for denying the UK the Brexit it deserved.

After the transition period, UK will be unleashed, free to do whatever it wants, no influence of the EU anymore. So who to blame?

Peregrinus

In fairness to Boris, much as I hate being fair to Boris, I think he had an impossible task.

His stated goal was to reach out to remainers and offer them some comfort and some reassurance. But he had to do this without deviating in any way from the Government's position, in so far as they have adopted a position yet. And the government's tactics to date have been to do everything possible to avoid conciliating remainers.

The Brexit vote was carried by 52% to 48%, which is not a huge margin. Nor was it evenly spread across the UK - Brexit was decisively rejected in Scotland, in Northern Ireland, in London. And the mandate conferred was an extremely vague one - leave the EU, but no positive mandate with respect to any further course of action.

This gave the government an opportunity. Most people, including most remainers, accepted that a vote is a vote, and Brexit would now ensue. It was open to the government to craft a Brexit which acknowledged and sought to accommodate the concerns that led people to vote to remain, with a view to building some kind of consensus around a Brexit that balanced divergent views and concerns.

And the government stuffed it up. Royally. They spend month demonstrating that they had no clue whatsoever about Brexit, proposing ludicrous impossibilities like remaining in the single market but ending free movement, and leaving the EU in order to enter into trade deals with Germany and France. After a crash course in European Union 101 which took a lot longer than it should, they stopped this nonsense and then set about crafting a Brexit pretty well guaranteed to demonstrate to remainers that their opinsions and concerns were of no importance whatsoever. They decreed that the Brexit vote was also a vote to leave the single market, to leave the customs union, to leave any agency regulated by the jurisprudence interpreted by the ECJ. They fought a court case to avoid having to get parliamentary approval for their Brexit proposals. Every possible opportunity that could be taken to offend and alienate those who had voted 'remain" was taken. Then they went to the country to seek a mandate for this platform and signally failed to get it. And since then the fear, anger and insecurity of brexiters has been on more or less constant display, manifested in denunciation of those who are not with the Brexity program as "traitors".

After all this, it's a bit late to decide that you need to reach out to remainers. At this point, there's really nothing that Boris could say or do that might cause them to unite around a Brexit vision. And Boris has the wit to see this.

So he did the only thing he could. He said he was going to reach out to remainers to try to build common ground, and then he delivered a speech completely designed to appeal to the leavers who already agree with the government's programme.

Naturally, the Torygraph is going to like it; they are already committed to the government's programme. Equally naturally, the Guardian is going to loathe it, just as they loath the government's programme.

If this is the first in a series of speeches designed to carry the Brexit project forward, it's a sorry start. There was nothing new in this speech, and nobody's opinion will have been changed by it.

Nody

Harika wrote: »

After the transition period, UK will be unleashed, free to do whatever it wants, no influence of the EU anymore. So who to blame?

EU for not giving them full access as they had as member. Not joking on that one; when a poster brought up the fact that a lot of the things Boris referenced are today done through EU institutions for research, students, airplanes etc. and that UK would lose access to influence them the response was "Well that only proves what a friend EU really is". The fact that they left EU and hence would lose influence simply does not connect for some reason; they expect to leave the EU and everything will remain the same. If not it's because EU are "punishing the UK for going their own way".

Peregrinus

Harika wrote: »

After the transition period, UK will be unleashed, free to do whatever it wants, no influence of the EU anymore. So who to blame?

Blame the EU, obviously. The UK won't be free to do whatever it wants. It wants to be free to sell goods and services into the EU without tariffs, barriers or restrictions of any kind, while rejecting free movement, regulatory convergence, the customs union and any obligation to be bound by EU law. It won't be free to do that, because Brussels won't agree to it. So, when Brexit turns out not to work so well for the UK, it will be Brussels' fault, because they wouldn't give the UK the have-cake-and-eat-it Brexit that the UK wanted.

Harika

Nody wrote: »

EU for not giving them full access as they had as member. Not joking on that one; when a poster brought up the fact that a lot of the things Boris referenced are today done through EU institutions for research, students, airplanes etc. and that UK would lose access to influence them the response was "Well that only proves what a friend EU really is". The fact that they left EU and hence would lose influence simply does not connect for some reason; they expect to leave the EU and everything will remain the same. If not it's because EU are "punishing the UK for going their own way".

So UK won't be free of the EU, that's my point where Brexiteers will start complaining about the EU very quickly again.
Fun fact, Boris mentioned that the trade with South Korea doubled since 2010, he missed the point that there is a FTA with EU and South Korea in place since 2010. And after Brexit they will lose the access to this FTA and will have to renegotiate that.

Leroy42

Peregrinus wrote: »

In fairness to Boris, much as I hate being fair to Boris, I think he had an impossible task.

His stated goal was to reach out to remainers and offer them some comfort and some reassurance. But he had to do this without deviating in any way from the Government's position, in so far as they have adopted a position yet. And the government's tactics to date have been to do everything possible to avoid conciliating remainers.

The Brexit vote was carried by 52% to 48%, which is not a huge margin. Nor was it evenly spread across the UK - Brexit was decisively rejected in Scotland, in Northern Ireland, in London. And the mandate conferred was an extremely vague one - leave the EU, but no positive mandate with respect to any further course of action.

Not impossible at all. What remainers what, and I think that is a misnomer as many of them respect the vote but not how it is being handled, is some details. What is this plan, why is it so obvious yo Boris that it is right?

His failure to be able to articulate the reasons behind his position is what is causing the angst. He had a platform to deliver a speech that would show the reasons behind the decisions, with the aim of bringing everyone together.

What we got was a series of cliches and a call for remainers to simply forget their fears and get on board. Don't know where we are going, what the journey entails or how much it will cost, but join us.

He is a minister in the government, and this has been the No1 item for 18 months and he has nothing to say?

If the position is impossible then it is directly because of him and others thst it is so. The fact that he cannotseem to think of a way to solve the problem is worrying in itself

Enzokk

Peregrinus wrote: »

In fairness to Boris, much as I hate being fair to Boris, I think he had an impossible task.

His stated goal was to reach out to remainers and offer them some comfort and some reassurance. But he had to do this without deviating in any way from the Government's position, in so far as they have adopted a position yet. And the government's tactics to date have been to do everything possible to avoid conciliating remainers.

The Brexit vote was carried by 52% to 48%, which is not a huge margin. Nor was it evenly spread across the UK - Brexit was decisively rejected in Scotland, in Northern Ireland, in London. And the mandate conferred was an extremely vague one - leave the EU, but no positive mandate with respect to any further course of action.

This gave the government an opportunity. Most people, including most remainers, accepted that a vote is a vote, and Brexit would now ensue. It was open to the government to craft a Brexit which acknowledged and sought to accommodate the concerns that led people to vote to remain, with a view to building some kind of consensus around a Brexit that balanced divergent views and concerns.

And the government stuffed it up. Royally. They spend month demonstrating that they had no clue whatsoever about Brexit, proposing ludicrous impossibilities like remaining in the single market but ending free movement, and leaving the EU in order to enter into trade deals with Germany and France. After a crash course in European Union 101 which took a lot longer than it should, they stopped this nonsense and then set about crafting a Brexit pretty well guaranteed to demonstrate to remainers that their opinsions and concerns were of no importance whatsoever. They decreed that the Brexit vote was also a vote to leave the single market, to leave the customs union, to leave any agency regulated by the jurisprudence interpreted by the ECJ. They fought a court case to avoid having to get parliamentary approval for their Brexit proposals. Every possible opportunity that could be taken to offend and alienate those who had voted 'remain" was taken. Then they went to the country to seek a mandate for this platform and signally failed to get it. And since then the fear, anger and insecurity of brexiters has been on more or less constant display, manifested in denunciation of those who are not with the Brexity program as "traitors".

After all this, it's a bit late to decide that you need to reach out to remainers. At this point, there's really nothing that Boris could say or do that might cause them to unite around a Brexit vision. And Boris has the wit to see this.

So he did the only thing he could. He said he was going to reach out to remainers to try to build common ground, and then he delivered a speech completely designed to appeal to the leavers who already agree with the government's programme.

Naturally, the Torygraph is going to like it; they are already committed to the government's programme. Equally naturally, the Guardian is going to loathe it, just as they loath the government's programme.

If this is the first in a series of speeches designed to carry the Brexit project forward, it's a sorry start. There was nothing new in this speech, and nobody's opinion will have been changed by it.

In fairness should you feel sympathy for him when he created this problem for himself? He backed leaving the EU and now he has to deliver, whatever his personal opinions are about it. He already pronounced that Churchill only opposed the Germans in WW2 because he saw an political opportunity, not because it was the right thing to do.

As most of us know already if you have 1 more MP than the other side you do what you want. There is no need to reach across to Labour to help craft legislation or policies. This goes the other way as well. Why would Boris need to worry about remainers at all? All he is worried about is his own position and he has backed Leave and he now has to back Leave. That is his way into 10 Downing street, he cannot now say, I was wrong, as he would be finished as a politician.

Zubeneschamali

Harika wrote: »

After the transition period, UK will be unleashed, free to do whatever it wants, no influence of the EU anymore. So who to blame?

The EU, of course. It has been a lie all along, why would they stop now?

"Detail be Damned"

A horrible microcosm of what is going on. The refusal to accept that Brexit is both political AND legal. Goodwill can only get so far.

The UK government hoping to fudge, fudge, fudge and fudge some more. Whilst the rest if the world stands open mouthed at the lack of internal let alone external progress and development.

At some stage (and we're getting close to it being too late!) there really must to be some honesty from them. Either outwards or inwards to the people about what the costs truly are of the benefits they envisage (and vice versa).

Under present arrangements the UK will become a 3rd Country in one year. The legal ramifications of this haven't been explored once in mainstream media without being castigated for fear mongering. Its deeply frustrating the lack of realism at play here.

Dont be at yourself

Dont be at yourself wrote: »

It’s abundantly clear that the UK as a whole is aiming for a low-regulation economy outside the CU/single market. This for sure is the final death knell for industry and manufacturing in northern England, and will further concentrate the economy on London.

The only remaining question is really how they will navigate their phase one commitments, in particular in relation to Northern Ireland. The choice now seems to be a sea border, or reneging on the phase 1 commitment. As some level of transition and trade deal is a basic requirement — no matter how self-sabotaging the UK government may be — we’re surely looking at the Tories attempting to sell out the DUP and acquiescing to special status for NI. But then DUP could collapse the government, so it’s a total mess...

Patrick Minford (of economists for free trade infamy) projects the utter death of all things manufactured in the UK in his model of the future UK growth as a result of leaving the EU.

The only economic model that painted Brexit in a good light, and even within it, it meant destitution throughout much of the country.

Yet, here we are. Its astonishing really.

Skedaddle

I've given up on even trying to apply logic to this. It's pretty clear that Brexit is nothing to do with economic arguments about trade. It's about an old imperial power that feels humiliated by its role as a middle sized country that's part of a club of small and middle sized countries.

It's chasing a past where it was relevant, yet that's impossible to return to and those chasing this past are largely engaged in a complete fantasy. They don't even seem to realise that they never really had "free trade" with the empire, they conquered a whole load of countries that had to fight for freedom and in many cases will see the UK begging for trade deals as a great opportunity to rub their noses in its very inglorious history. Even the friendly former colonies like Canada seem to think they've gone mad.

They're also vastly overestimating the US "special relationship". Why would the USA give them a deal like EU membership? They can also absolutely brother getting a deal like they're asking the EU for : full market access without regulatory burden. They'd be laughed out of the office if they asked for that!

They'll, in all likelihood, get an America First trade deal which will see them with probably about as much market access as they already have, only with forced deregulation of British agriculture and so on. They might get nothing at all as Trump is busy ripping up trade deals with Canada, their closest and friendliest neighbour.

The whole thing is barking mad and there's no arguing with Brexiteers. They hate the EU and that's pretty much their entire argument. Even when you pick away at it, most of them can't even explain why they hate it. They just do. It's just a gut feeling about a dislike of pooling sovereignty or sharing power, probably coupled with having nothing but contempt for pretty much all neighbouring countries.

The economic reality is a world dominated by the US and China with the EU very much holding its own because of the scale it has created. The UK now goes out on its own to be bounced baroins between those genuinely huge economies. It's also not a resource rich place like Australia or Canada nor is a major tech and manufacturing powerhouse like Japan. It's a trading economy that's just turned it's back on the deepest trade agreements it will ever have.

A lot of people hate 'The EU' simply because they have been led to believe that The EU is the cause of 90%+ of their problems. There has been years of effort gone into scapegoating the EU for everything to allow bucks to be passed ever upwards.

In a lot of those people, the entity they should hold in disregard is far closer to home.

In a way, it is almost a supporting reason for Brexit to happen, in order to pull down the facade of what so many in the UK have been fed on for years. I can't fathom another way for them to understand.

The UK has been manipulated for decades and Brexit is a way of showing them that. A painful painful lesson to learn (and one that we will doubtlessly be caught in the crossfire of), but a worthwhile lesson all the same.

Professor Moriarty

Skedaddle wrote: »

I've given up on even trying to apply logic to this. It's pretty clear that Brexit is nothing to do with economic arguments about trade. It's about an old imperial power that feels humiliated by its role as a middle sized country that's part of a club of small and middle sized countries.

It's chasing a past where it was relevant, yet that's impossible to return to and those chasing this past are largely engaged in a complete fantasy. They don't even seem to realise that they never really had "free trade" with the empire, they conquered a whole load of countries that had to fight for freedom and in many cases will see the UK begging for trade deals as a great opportunity to rub their noses in its very inglorious history. Even the friendly former colonies like Canada seem to think they've gone mad.

They're also vastly overestimating the US "special relationship". Why would the USA give them a deal like EU membership? They can also absolutely brother getting a deal like they're asking the EU for : full market access without regulatory burden. They'd be laughed out of the office if they asked for that!

They'll, in all likelihood, get an America First trade deal which will see them with probably about as much market access as they already have, only with forced deregulation of British agriculture and so on. They might get nothing at all as Trump is busy ripping up trade deals with Canada, their closest and friendliest neighbour.

The whole thing is barking mad and there's no arguing with Brexiteers. They hate the EU and that's pretty much their entire argument. Even when you pick away at it, most of them can't even explain why they hate it. They just do. It's just a gut feeling about a dislike of pooling sovereignty or sharing power, probably coupled with having nothing but contempt for pretty much all neighbouring countries.

The economic reality is a world dominated by the US and China with the EU very much holding its own because of the scale it has created. The UK now goes out on its own to be bounced baroins between those genuinely huge economies. It's also not a resource rich place like Australia or Canada nor is a major tech and manufacturing powerhouse like Japan. It's a trading economy that's just turned it's back on the deepest trade agreements it will ever have.

Excellent post.

Skedaddle

That's the problem though and I think the malaise is a lot deeper than just Brexit. It's also expressed in plenty of other cultural displays like football hooliganism and they way the media in England tends to see football as pseudo war against old enemies like France and Germany.

Even the petty name calling and using insulting terminology for other countries isn't actually reciprocated. I've seen articles in France trying to understand why the English hate them so much and trying to dissect modern British and also American francophobia.

I'm not sure if the tabloids are leading this aspect of culture, or are whether they are just the same as the graffiti on the toilet walls and Twitter rants : a window on an unpleasant aspect of the psyche of British / English identity?

It's very hard to argue with that kind of illogical, feeling based politics. It's also very similar to the kind of identity politics and it takes great leadership which is sorely lacking over there at the moment on all sides.

I was expecting a knight in shining armour type of political figure to emerge and lead the UK away from this madness but, it hasn't happened and I see no evidence of anyone waiting in the wings either. I think it'll be disaster and then slow picking up the pieces.

There is a nice, sensible and very open-minded and pragmatic side or England and Britian but it's been extremely effectively gagged and silenced on this.

Zubeneschamali

Skedaddle wrote: »

It's also expressed in plenty of other cultural displays like football hooliganism and they way the media in England tends to see football as pseudo war against old enemies like France and Germany.

The English football crowd seem particularly peeved that the Germans don't reciprocate - they don't care much about England, their football rivalry is with the Dutch. And the "Two world wars and one world cup" jibe kind of sums this up when you consider these events were 100, 73 and 51 years ago, whereas Germany won the most recent tournament played.

Water John

When third countries like Japan are warning of the consequences, it's time to listen. TM promised the Japanese she'll do a wonderful deal with the EU, WTF.
Japan has now marked UK's card. Read it and it may show people what will happen to Japanese plants in the UK.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/feb/15/japan-thinks-brexit-is-an-act-of-self-harm-says-uks-former-ambassador

Skedaddle

Japan already effectively has a deal with the EU, so the likes of Nissan in the UK could be reduced to just distribution centres for the UK market only, with production moving to the continent or even Japan.

The Japan-EU Economic Partnership is ready to roll and agreed. They're at the implementation stage now, but it's likely to be in place long before any UK - EU deal.

It's mindbogglingly stupid to not only throw away the EU market itself, but the big network of existing and future trade deals it's working on all over the world. The constant lie was that the UK had a choice between EU or global markets. The EU is a huge player in global trade and is growing into being probably the dominant nexus of trade in the world, with very influential power over global regulatory frameworks too.

The sheer idiocy of throwing away all of that influence really is brain melting.

CelticRambler

Skedaddle wrote: »

That's the problem though and I think the malaise is a lot deeper than just Brexit. It's also expressed in plenty of other cultural displays like football hooliganism and they way the media in England tends to see football as pseudo war against old enemies like France and Germany.

Even the petty name calling and using insulting terminology for other countries isn't actually reciprocated.

There's at least a degree of truth in that. The former MrsCR told me that her grandad refused to come to her parents wedding because her Manchester-born mother chose to marry a filthy Irishman. MrsCR's father never met his father-in-law until twenty years later, when the latter was on his deathbed, at which point the bigot was forced to admit that the Irish were not all filthy drunkards, and (so the story goes) he died full of regret for the "lost years".

Roll on a generation, I convinced MrsCR that we should take the children from Kent, where we lived, to Austria for a holiday. All fine by MrsCR until I mentioned that the best place for us to stop overnight would be in Germany. Well, she almost cancelled the trip, but didn't, and en route she was literally terrified of what awaited beyond the border. All this because she'd grown up listening to her mother (and aunts) going on and on about the evil Krauts and their despicable nation.

Fortunately, the irony of MiL being, on the one hand, the victim of xenophobia, and perpetuating it on the other, was not lost on MrsCR (who subsequently decided she wanted to see a lot more of Germany and the Germans). Unfortunately, there are still too many young Brits whose only experience of Europe is as soccer fans, stag parties and a week on the Costa.