Brexit discussion thread III

Peregrinus

Skedaddle wrote: »

It's going to be big news to the DUP which could leave them in a position where they're going to have to make a decision to either play ball or collapse the UK governmen . . .

Why would the DUP care? It's no skin off their nose whether the Withdrawal Agreement says "there shall be no internal border in the UK" or not. All they care about is that there should actually be no internal border in the UK. If the UK complies with its obligations under the Withdrawal Agreement ("full alignment" such that there is no hard NI/RoI border) and does so in a way that there are no new regulatory controls between NI and GB, everyone's happy.

Obviously, the DUP might reasonably be concerned that the UK won't honour the "no new regulatory controls" commitment it gave them, but they can hardly be so delusional as to expect the EU to go out of its way to protect them from that risk. It is, as Brexiters should be the first to point out, an internal UK matter; no business of the EU's.

Peregrinus

Sam Russell wrote: »

On day one of the 'NO DEAL' coming into force, there will be, of necessity, customs checks both into and out of the UK. There is no infrastructure in place ANYWHERE to achieve this. There will be chaos, and queues of lorries, and all business that requires goods in a timely manner will stop business.

Now this will be sorted, but not quickly, and look what happened to KFC when they changed logistic supplier and ran out of chicken - and that was before Brexit.

Tariffs are not the only issue, it is COO, Standards compliance, quotas, customs declarations, collection of VAT and tariffs, etc. There is no Customs handling software in the UK to deal with this, so how do they do it - wave everyone through? Will the French do this?

The world around Dover and Calais will stop.

It would be chaotic, granted.

The UK could, and probably would, halve the chaos at a stroke by decreeing unilaterally that anything which could be imported freely into the UK the day before Brexit can still be imported freely, so that it's only exports from the UK that get snarled up. That would get them into every kind of trouble with the WTO, but that's a medium- to long-term problem, and the short-term benefit of reducing the chaos and being able to import food would undoubtedly prevail.

Skedaddle

Because May will be in a position where she has either to throw the DUP or the UK economy under a bus, or scrap Brexit and face the music in her own party. That's ultimately what she's left with as a choice. With the DUP in charge, it's going to be Ulster Says No, regardless of what the practicalities are. It's no skin off their nose. They're a parochial party that has no vision for the UK or indeed anything beyond their own narrow party and community interests. They spend all their time focused on what amounts to sectarian identity politics in an obscure and very screwed up region of the UK political system.

She either gets a disgruntled DUP and some kind of Brexit, or Corbyn and probably a leadership challenge in labour and someone else emerging, running a new referendum and probably cancelling Brexit.

It's really her choice how she wants to end her career but I suspect it's ending one way or the other. She really should be planning for least worst path and having at least some kind of legacy.

I think to be quite honest this is where harsh practical and political reality and ideological theoretical fantasy meet. If the Tories can't see that, there's a huge problem.

Water John

Lets see how this week plays out first. No harm looking far down the road, but the nearer game, with its changes and nuances, is I suppose, interesting, would be one term for it.

Its like a slow bicycle race, with May and Corbyn, being nudged gradually and ever so slowly in to position.

Skedaddle

Unprecedentedly and irresponsibly risky would be the other terms for it!

CelticRambler

Skedaddle wrote: »

I also think the UK media is blind to the fact that the DUP are perceived as a regional, ultra right wing, religious fundamentalist party and very like the far right that many EU countries have on the edges of politics and don't want to be seen to be rewarding with huge power.

I think the Irish (media and boards.ies :pac: ) see the DUP through a magnifying glass and attribute to them far more attention and supposed influence than they deserve. Viewed from anywhere other than the island of Ireland, they are a small faction of Irish troublemakers ("which ones are they, the Catholics or the Protestants?" is the question I'm most asked if ever the topic comes up in conversation.) They're definitely never seen as British by anyone other than themselves.

So as far as the rest of the world goes, their only role in this whole mess has been to exaggerate the chaos already set in motion by the Little England cakeists. The real problem is not whether their ten votes count for anything in Westminster - irrelevant, now that Labour are essentially negotiating with the EU in the absence of any logical Tory thinking - but what happens next. Fintan O'Toole expresses it in a Guardian article:

Their whole vision of a glorious post-Brexit future is based on Britain’s ability to do great trade deals and be a trusted partner on the world stage. Yet to get there they now have to start by tearing up two of the most important international deals Britain has signed in its recent history, both of them legally binding. They have to renege on the pact May signed in December, that placed the Belfast Agreement at the centre of the Brexit process. And they have to pull out of the agreement – which, contrary to what they seem to believe, is not an internal British deal but a binding international treaty between two sovereign governments registered with the United Nations and effectively underpinned by both the United States and the EU.

They would have Britain stand before the world, knee-deep in shredded treaties, and say, “Sign here, trust us!” One can but wish them the best of British luck with that one.

Skedaddle

I'm not so sure about that.

The PUD as they're called in French received considerable and highly negative coverage in French media over the years.

Typical French coverage France Infos:

https://www.francetvinfo.fr/monde/royaume-uni/legislatives-britanniques/royaume-uni-qu-est-ce-que-le-dup-ce-parti-nord-irlandais-charge-de-decider-du-sort-de-theresa-may_2233177.html

"Ce parti protestant ultraconservateur peut, grâce à ses dix députés, permettre à la Première ministre britannique de revendiquer une majorité absolue et de se maintenir au 10, Downing Street."

It goes on to mention Paisley and their "Save Ulster from Sodomy" campaign years ago and their current position on gay rights, creationism etc etc etc

They're not understood by the general public but politicians and negotiators at EU level are very aware of them and they're sort of seen as a religious UKIP.

Remember this is a negotiation with EU officials and ultimately by extension with national governments, not with the general public.

Also the European Parliament is aware of DUP as the party has been one of the more "colourful" right wing contributors over the years.

I certainly wouldn't discount the fact that people are a little surprised / shocked to see the UK government in bed with such a party.

Leroy42

So Corbyn has come out and said that he would keep UK in a customs Union, but would want equal say over any future trading agreements etc.

So basically, we were one of 28, now we want to be given a 50% voting share. We also don't want to pay anything extra or even bring anything extra to the table.

So in effect Uk can veto any future trade deals that the EU would like to make. Of course the contra is true, that the EU could veto any trade deals the UK make.

Skedaddle

Key language difference : "a customs union" Vs "the Customs Union

Leroy42

Skedaddle wrote: »

Key language difference : "a customs union" Vs "the Customs Union

Its not really, not outside of the UK at least.

A custom union, in terms of the EU, is the customs union. EU have laid out the 4 pillars of that. If they sign up to those 4 then they can be in the CU, if not they won't and we are back to a border.

Skedaddle

The notion in the UK is that it will be a 50:50 arrangement and the EU will have to consult the UK on future changes to EU rules and regs.

That's at least the understanding that various people have explained to me that they have of it.

Effectively, the UK would be seeking moving from membership and significant influence, to wanting to be a non member but recognised as equivalent to the whole EU.

It looks to me to be yet more Advanced Cakeism.

CelticRambler

Skedaddle wrote: »

I'm not so sure about that.

The PUD as they're called in French received considerable and highly negative coverage in French media over the years ...

They're not understood by the general public but politicians and negotiators at EU level are very aware of them and they're sort of seen as a religious UKIP.

Remember this is a negotiation with EU officials and ultimately by extension with national governments, not with the general public.

Also the European Parliament is aware of DUP as the party has been one of the more "colourful" right wing contributors over the years.

Of course, if you go looking for information you will find it, and those "in the business" will be aware of everyone else, but that doesn't mean that the party has any real signficance. Again, because the DUP has played a particular role in Irish politics over so many years, I see people in Ireland getting somewhat carried away with the emotional or symbolic involvement of the DUP in Westminster and not looking at the bigger picture: they contribute 10 voices to TM's position, one that is threatened by 40-60 members of her own party. The DUP's opinion on Brexit is now irrelevant.

The same goes for the EU. Here in France, Brexit is last year's news. If you strip out our domestic stories (reform of SNCF, Corsican autonomy, people insisting on killing themselves in the Alps every weekend ... :rolleyes:), the only reference to Brexit is in the 15th story from the top, in an article on the EU's budget for 2020 onwards. This is what the Little Englanders don't seem to understand: no-one on this side of the Channel is interested in keynote speeches setting out vague aspirations that may or may not depend on getting a vote through parliament, nor whether the current prime minster or her cabinet or her party risks being booted out of office on account of a deal done with a bunch of regional extremists.

Brexit is!

The only thing that matters now are the Ts & Cs ... and as of this morning, the only politician in the UK putting forward a workable set of suggestions is Jeremy Corbyn, so Theresa May is fast becoming as irrelevant to the EU as Arlene Foster.

Skedaddle

I'm not saying anyone is particularly concerned about Brexit in day to day news, rather that a lot of people who I've encountered were raising eyebrows and practically falling off their chairs when they read up on the DUP.

Again, it's not the media coverage that matters on Brexit. I just mean they forget that they're not dealing with the public and there's no Continental tabloid media paying any attention to them.

They're largely dealing with lawyers, officials, civil servants, governmental experts and so on and those people all know precisely what the political fractures in the UK are.

Apart from being backed by the DUP, you've also got the likes of Boris Johnson doing a rather emm "unique" job as foreign secretary.

The impression coming across is a government that's falling apart, taking nothing seriously and is propped up by a very odd right wing party whose former leader once screamed "anti Christ" at the Pope during an official visit to the European Parliament.

That's what the academics, lawyers and political science experts on the EU side see and remember / have heard about seen on YouTube.

Also both large Irish parties FG and FF are very much part of the EU pragmatic centre EPP and liberals. Labour and Sinn Fein are also very much connected to decent EP blocs. The Tories aren't at all.

The Tories really isolated themselves at the EP and in the EU generally.

Angry bird

It's a close one to call as to who is dumb and who is dumber. Time for the EU to call a halt and deal with whoever wins the civil war.

Water John

Corbyn has a taken a distinctive step, setting a differentiation with a likelyhood of a Govn't defeat.
When industry and George Osbourne are praising him, you can see the Brexiteer Tories getting upset and why.

Leroy42

Water John wrote: »

Corbyn has a taken a distinctive step, setting a differentiation with a likelyhood of a Govn't defeat.
When industry and George Osbourne are praising him, you can see the Brexiteer Tories getting upset and why.

If only they had thought of it before the fecking vote, instead of hiding. Still, as you said, its a step in the right direction.

CelticRambler

Skedaddle wrote: »

I just mean they forget that they're not dealing with the public and there's no Continental tabloid media paying any attention to them.

That's it in a nutshell: the Tories are dealing with the public ... and no-one else! Even when they supposedly speak to "Europe", everything is packaged for the domestic audience. To all intents and purposes, this is still the same intra-party squabble that saw Cameron promise an EU referendum and nothing to do the greater good for Britain or anywhere else. Back then, UKIP was the thorn in the Tories' side; now it's the DUP; next time, it'll be someone else. The one thing they're not doing is the job of government.

Until now, I had accepted the notion that Labour was going to coast along and let the Tories (and teeeny-weeny, itsy-bitsy DUP) destroy themselves from the inside; since hearing JC's speech this morning, though, I feel something's changed - someone's said something to somebody behind the scenes, and it's not just those Siberian winds that are blowing across the country ... :cool:

Did Corbyn not say a customs union? Meaning the same as the Tories?

Sam Russell

Deleted User wrote: »

Did Corbyn not say a customs union? Meaning the same as the Tories?

He did but he also said no impediment to trade with the EU and also absolutely no hard border in NI. The Tories are softer on this.

Leroy42

Deleted User wrote: »

Did Corbyn not say a customs union? Meaning the same as the Tories?

Tories do not want a customs union, as it rules out their ability to make other international agreements

First Up

Leroy42 wrote: »

Tories do not want a customs union, as it rules out their ability to make other international agreements

Well there is a Tory pipe-dream of a very special Customs Union that mans they can do both. It would involve "mutual recognition" of standards etc. so that if the UK says something is OK, then the EU will recognise that as being OK too. It is based on the early days of the EU (pre Single Market) when Germany accepted Italian, Spanish etc standards and so on. It hasn't a hope of being agreed of course but try telling that to a Brexiteer.

LeinsterDub

Sam Russell wrote: »

He did but he also said no impediment to trade with the EU and also absolutely no hard border in NI. The Tories are softer on this.

Corbyn will soon find like May that once you attempt to pin your colours to the Brexit mast you will soon be undermined from 3 sides. By the Pro side , the Anti side and worst of all the side of reality the EU side

Enzokk

Leroy42 wrote: »

So Corbyn has come out and said that he would keep UK in a customs Union, but would want equal say over any future trading agreements etc.

So basically, we were one of 28, now we want to be given a 50% voting share. We also don't want to pay anything extra or even bring anything extra to the table.

So in effect Uk can veto any future trade deals that the EU would like to make. Of course the contra is true, that the EU could veto any trade deals the UK make.

They have put out their position before Theresa May has. She can now ask for something similar and be accused of copying Labour, or she can go another way. It will be interesting to see what fairytale she believes in with her speech this week.

LeinsterDub wrote: »

Corbyn will soon find like May that once you attempt to pin your colours to the Brexit mast you will soon be undermined from 3 sides. By the Pro side , the Anti side and worst of all the side of reality the EU side

Either way it seems that the politicians will be out for a beating because the position of Brexit and not harming the economy too much is not what was voted for. Either they have to reconcile that a soft Brexit will be the best for the country and take the Brexiteer and newspaper lumps, or they will have to take the economic lumps and go for the hard Brexit. There is no in-between with the EU as far as I see it.

Skedaddle

The argument he's making is similar to the Tories - UK is world's 5th largest economy* thus the EU has to bend to its will. Not sure it'll quite work that way.

*His figure, not mine.

Sam Russell

Skedaddle wrote: »

The argument he's making is similar to the Tories - UK is world's 5th largest economy* thus the EU has to bend to its will. Not sure it'll quite work that way.

*His figure, not mine.

I think the EU position will be:

'Sign here, here and here - please. Just to let you know, first is the NI border, the second is the Citizen's rights, and of course, the bill. We agreed this with you in December so we can move on to the transition deal. It is now a legal text.'

No room for discussion - it was all agreed in December - in a bit of a hurry, if I remember.

steddyeddy

Skedaddle wrote: »

The argument he's making is similar to the Tories - UK is world's 5th largest economy* thus the EU has to bend to its will. Not sure it'll quite work that way.

*His figure, not mine.

Well I think the UK may now be the world's 6th biggest economy. Anyway the argument doesn't hold water. You can only measure the strength of the economy with reference to current circumstances. Britain's current economic strength is due in part to its place in the largest single market in the world. Prior to joining this it approached bankruptcy.

CelticRambler

Sam Russell wrote: »

I think the EU position will be:

'Sign here, here and here - please. Just to let you know, first is the NI border, the second is the Citizen's rights, and of course, the bill. We agreed this with you in December so we can move on to the transition deal. It is now a legal text.'

That's essentially what he's done: declare on-the-record that there will be no sacrificing of the (Labour-negotiated, hint-hint, wink-wink) GFA, so feck the DUP and their "confidence and supply agreement"; and given an on-the-record guarantee to treat EU citizens like normal people, before and after Brexit.

These are two things that TM & Co. haven't been able to stand up and say in public without retracting whatever anyone thought they might have said (or signed) the next day.

The rest of it is your standard setting out of a stall before getting down to negotiating the detail. Or to put it another way, Jeremy Corbyn saying to the EU: "you know I'm a Eurosceptic, but at least I know how to play the game."

Water John

Corbyn is letting the UK electorate and the EU know, he is open for business, as you say.
The next event is, the EU putting Phase 1, that is agreed, into legal text, due Wed.
As Tony Connelly RTE said , this will upset both the Tories and DUP. Watch for the tabloid backlash Thurs. As TC put it, the UK are having, buyers remorse, since agreeing it in Dec.

steddyeddy

Water John wrote: »

Corbyn is letting the UK electorate and the EU know, he is open for business, as you say.
The next event is, the EU putting Phase 1, that is agreed, into legal text, due Wed.
As Tony Connelly RTE said , this will upset both the Tories and DUP. Watch for the tabloid backlash Thurs. As TC put it, the UK are having, buyers remorse, since agreeing it in Dec.

I can see Kate Hoey making a big deal about this. I hope she does and is kicked out. She represents Vauxhall in London, which was a big remain region. I can't see them reelecting her if she keeps up with this nonsense.

Water John

If the CU comes to a vote and LB enforce a three line whip, will she fold or revolt?
Every vote counts.

jobbridge4life

Skedaddle wrote: »

The argument he's making is similar to the Tories - UK is world's 5th largest economy* thus the EU has to bend to its will. Not sure it'll quite work that way.

*His figure, not mine.

I've always found that a peculiar line of thinking. It might work if one was the fifth largest economy trying to deal with, lets say, the tenth. The logic of the fifth largest economy in the world trying to strong man the second largest (the EU), seems rather counter-productive?

ancapailldorcha

steddyeddy wrote: »

I can see Kate Hoey making a big deal about this. I hope she does and is kicked out. She represents Vauxhall in London, which was a big remain region. I can't see them reelecting her if she keeps up with this nonsense.

Alas, 'tis irrelevant. I recall an episode of Question Time where an audience member said that you could put a Labour rose on a donkey and people would vote for it. In keeping with that, Hoey not just kept Vauxhall but increased her vote share. They ultimately don't care about Leave/Remain. It's now back to the regularly scheduled programming of Labour and the Conservatives.

Just when you thought British politics couldn't get any weirder, the Confederation of British Industry has endorsed Jeremy Corbyn's position:

https://twitter.com/RobDotHutton/status/968100875267985408

Water John

There is quite a contradiction in your own post. It's not political service, as usual.
The ground is shifting.

Professor Moriarty

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Alas, 'tis irrelevant. I recall an episode of Question Time where an audience member said that you could put a Labour rose on a donkey and people would vote for it. In keeping with that, Hoey not just kept Vauxhall but increased her vote share. They ultimately don't care about Leave/Remain. It's now back to the regularly scheduled programming of Labour and the Conservatives.

Just when you thought British politics couldn't get any weirder, the Confederation of British Industry has endorsed Jeremy Corbyn's position:

https://twitter.com/RobDotHutton/status/968100875267985408

The CBI has been consistently arguing against a hard Brexit.

ancapailldorcha

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

The CBI has been consistently arguing against a hard Brexit.

I was referring to a pro-Business lobby endorsing a Socialist who's been constantly talking about making big firms and high earners pay more corporation tax. If the Tories were even slightly less dysfunctional, this would never happen.

Professor Moriarty

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I was referring to a pro-Business lobby endorsing a Socialist who's been constantly talking about making big firms and high earners pay more corporation tax. If the Tories were even slightly less dysfunctional, this would never happen.

True. The CBI can't afford to be anything other than pragmatic.

Leonard Hofstadter

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I was referring to a pro-Business lobby endorsing a Socialist who's been constantly talking about making big firms and high earners pay more corporation tax. If the Tories were even slightly less dysfunctional, this would never happen.

True. The CBI can't afford to be anything other than pragmatic.

It's actually astounding that the so called party of business is being seen as less business friendly than a hard left socialist. It's even more astonishing when you consider that the party who was instrumental in creating the single market now sees fit to drag the UK out of it.

Water John

TM rings Leo. Really worried about legal text being issued on Wed.
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/british-pm-sought-phone-call-with-taoiseach-ahead-of-eu-draft-brexit-pact-1.3406676

Angry bird

Water John wrote: »

TM rings Leo. Really worried about legal text being issued on Wed.
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/british-pm-sought-phone-call-with-taoiseach-ahead-of-eu-draft-brexit-pact-1.3406676

Quite correctly the EU has had enough of internal Tory and internal UK rows. Take it or leave it.

J Mysterio

Water John wrote: »

TM rings Leo. Really worried about legal text being issued on Wed.
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/british-pm-sought-phone-call-with-taoiseach-ahead-of-eu-draft-brexit-pact-1.3406676

Not only that, but May is coming under pressure on all sides for buying the DUP vote.

Infini

Angry bird wrote: »

Quite correctly the EU has had enough of internal Tory and internal UK rows. Take it or leave it.

Pretty much this. Basically its putting the Brexiteer's and the DUP muppets in a vice and squeezing the stupid out of them.

This is looking like where it will all come down to. Either they cop on and jettison the Brexit BS or the whole country will basically be throwing itself under the bus.

Memnoch

captainspeed wrote: »

It's actually astounding that the so called party of business is being seen as less business friendly than a hard left socialist. It's even more astonishing when you consider that the party who was instrumental in creating the single market now sees fit to drag the UK out of it.

Corbyn is not a hard left socialist. Please stop repeating this untruth.

He is a social democrat, whose policies are completely in line with center-left mainstream governments in many countries in Europe.

Could you please point to some examples of his policies that are hard left?

Peregrinus

Leroy42 wrote: »

So Corbyn has come out and said that he would keep UK in a customs Union, but would want equal say over any future trading agreements etc.

So basically, we were one of 28, now we want to be given a 50% voting share. We also don't want to pay anything extra or even bring anything extra to the table.

So in effect Uk can veto any future trade deals that the EU would like to make. Of course the contra is true, that the EU could veto any trade deals the UK make.

No. Corbyn doesn't want an "equal say" in future EU trade deals; just a "say".

That's a broad phrase - no doubt deliberately so. It could mean anything from wanting, as you suggest, an equal say, a 50% vote, a right of veto, to wanting the right to be consulted during negotiations in relation to aspects of the draft deal that particularly affect the UK.

It should be noted that the Customs Union doesn't do trade deals; the EU does. The result is that countries which are in a customs union with The Customs Union - Turkey is currently the only major example - are not party to the trade deals that the EU makes.

But they are affected by them. They are committed to implementing the EU customs tarriff, and if the EU makes a trade deal under which the tariff on widgets from Teapotistan is reduced to zero, then non-EU countries in a customs union must also reduce their tariff on Teapotistani widgets to zero.

Turkey puts up with this because it aspires to EU membership, and hopes ultimately to benefit from the EU/Teapotistan trade deal. The considerations for the UK would be slightly different. I think it's not unreasonable for Corbyn at least to aspire to being consulted about EU trade deals, to the extent that they will affect the UK as a member of a customs union with the EU.

The idea of a country participating in the customs union, but not as part of a process of convergence towards full membership, is a new one, and it does give rise to considerations like this which need to be teased out. I think Corbyn's speech recognises this, without committing him to a "red line' which might make meaningful negotiation impossible. (In other words, he has learned from the mistakes of the Tories.)

Peregrinus

Skedaddle wrote: »

The notion in the UK is that it will be a 50:50 arrangement and the EU will have to consult the UK on future changes to EU rules and regs.

That's at least the understanding that various people have explained to me that they have of it.

Effectively, the UK would be seeking moving from membership and significant influence, to wanting to be a non member but recognised as equivalent to the whole EU.

It looks to me to be yet more Advanced Cakeism.

Hold on. A customs union is just a customs union. The "rules and regulations" are basically customs classifications and tariffs. The customs union has nothing to do with product standards, licensing, trade regulation, etc, etc..

I don't know whether the UK side expects a 50:50 voice in setting the common customs tariff but, if they do, that's all they'd be looking for a 50:50 voice in. As members of the customs union, they wouldn't be bound by Single Market rules and regulations, so there's be no reason why they would expect any voice in them.

Is it realistic to look for a 50:50 voice in setting the common customs tariff? No, frankly, it isn't; the UK would very much be the junior partner here, and it delusional to imagine otherwise.

Under the EU/Turky customs union agreement, Turkey is bound to apply the common customs tariff, and has the right to be notified of impending changes to the tariff in time to arrange for them to be implemented in Turkey. There's a provision for "prior consultations" about tariff changes, but this is mainly focussed on consultations about how the changes are to be implemented, not about whether changes should be made at all.

The UK packs more weight than Turkey, and might reasonably bargain for something slightly more than this - possibly a beefed-up "prior consultation" right. But they certainly won't get an equal voice in, or a veto over, changes to the common tariff. Apart from the fact that it would make no sense, it would mean that the UK as a third country would have superior rights in setting EU law in this area than it had as a member state. For obvious reasons the EU will not countenance this.

Peregrinus

First Up wrote: »

Well there is a Tory pipe-dream of a very special Customs Union that mans they can do both. It would involve "mutual recognition" of standards etc. so that if the UK says something is OK, then the EU will recognise that as being OK too. It is based on the early days of the EU (pre Single Market) when Germany accepted Italian, Spanish etc standards and so on. It hasn't a hope of being agreed of course but try telling that to a Brexiteer.

That's not a very special customs union; that's a very special substitute for the single market. In the Tory dream the EU treats UK goods as conforming to EU standards regardless of whether they do or not, but the UK is still free to establish its own customs tariff, independently of the EU customs tariff (and would make extensive use of this it order to negotiate a wonderful set of trade deals with China, North Korea and countries as yet undiscovered under the sea.)

So, not a customs union at all - not even a "very special" customs union.

Peregrinus

steddyeddy wrote: »

I can see Kate Hoey making a big deal about this. I hope she does and is kicked out. She represents Vauxhall in London, which was a big remain region. I can't see them reelecting her if she keeps up with this nonsense.

She has a majority of more than 20,000 and, as her Conservative opponent would presumably be committed to his own party's 'Leave' policy, I can't see her losing the seat over this.

The only possible way in which she might lose the seat is if the party deselected her as Labour candidate. But that's a very long shot.

Peregrinus

captainspeed wrote: »

It's actually astounding that the so called party of business is being seen as less business friendly than a hard left socialist. It's even more astonishing when you consider that the party who was instrumental in creating the single market now sees fit to drag the UK out of it.

There's quite a few astounding things happening these days:

- Whether or not it's fair to call Corbyn a "hard left socialist", he's certainly the most left-wing leader the UK Labour Party has had in modern times. And yet Labour under Corbyn is more pro-business than the Conservative Party.

- It's the Tories, not Labour, who are committed to policies which must damage British geo-political standing and influence.

- It used to be the Tories who prided themselves on being ‘non-ideological’ and pragmatic, unlike those doctrinaire socialists over there in the Labour party. Yet today, it's unquestionably the Tories who prefer ideology to reality.

Enzokk

J Mysterio wrote: »

Not only that, but May is coming under pressure on all sides for buying the DUP vote.

From you link the problem for the Conservatives is very much apparent. They may have rebels against Brexit but I just don't see them actually voting against themselves running the government. It takes a strong politician to do that and I don't think any of those rebels have the spine for it.

There seems little prospect of any Conservative MPs rebelling in a vote on delivering cash to the DUP, given that its release is essential for the survival of their Government.

Christy42

Peregrinus wrote: »

There's quite a few astounding things happening these days:

- Whether or not it's fair to call Corbyn a "hard left socialist", he's certainly the most left-wing leader the UK Labour Party has had in modern times. And yet Labour under Corbyn is more pro-business than the Conservative Party.

- It's the Tories, not Labour, who are committed to policies which must damage British geo-political standing and influence.

- It used to be the Tories who prided themselves on being ‘non-ideological’ and pragmatic, unlike those doctrinaire socialists over there in the Labour party. Yet today, it's unquestionably the Tories who prefer ideology to reality.

The right in many countries has swung away from business towards nationalism (Brexit, Trump, LePen). Sure they give vague intentions of being good for business and are ok if businesses do well but really it is no longer their focus. It gives a serious opportunity to center left politicians and parties if they can change the narrative of the left being bad for business.

Enzokk

Some interesting reactions to Labour being sensible about Brexit.

https://twitter.com/bbcnickrobinson/status/968388720121581569

And doing this makes sense in what way?

https://twitter.com/thetimes/status/968254354275946497

And confirmation from previous posts where Labour is now sensible when it comes to business in the UK and the Tories are the party that is anti-business.