Brexit discussion thread III

Peregrinus

Enzokk wrote: »

Some interesting reactions to Labour being sensible about Brexit.

https://twitter.com/bbcnickrobinson/status/968388720121581569

Liam Fox's former top official; an important qualification, I think. The refererence is to Sir Martin Donnelly, who was Permanent Secretary at the Dept of Business Innovation and Skills, and then at the Dept of International Trade (Fox's department) until his retirement a year ago. It's being reported that he is saying that there is “no evidence of untapped global markets waiting to welcome U.K. companies,” and that the key trade deal the U.K. needs to strike is with the EU, its largest market.

Added on edit: Donnelly's views are not news. He had an opinion piece in the Guardian last November saying much the same thing, but without the pungent packet-of-crisps analogy.

Boris about knee deep in his own mouth this morning.

Hurrache

Deleted User wrote: »

Boris about knee deep in his own mouth this morning.

He's hilarious. He's basically saying that because there was no hard border between London boroughs for the congestion charges there's no need one between the republic and the north.


https://twitter.com/BBCr4today/status/968406960776376320

We think that we can have very efficient facilitation systems to make sure that there’s no need for a hard border, excessive checks at the frontier between Northern Ireland and the Republic. For people listening, there’s no border between Camden and Westminster, but when I was mayor of London we anaesthetically and invisibly took hundreds of millions of pounds from the accounts of people travelling between those two boroughs without any need for border checks whatever.

Interviewer said you can't compare the two, he replied

think it’s a very relevant comparison, because there is all sorts of scope for pre-booking, electronic checks, all sorts of things that you can do to obviate the need for a hard border, to allow us to come out of the customs union, take back control of our trade policy and do trade deals.

Reactions and face palms across the political spectrum covered here
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2018/feb/27/brexit-former-international-trade-department-chief-dismisses-foxs-case-for-leaving-customs-union-politics-live

First Up

Peregrinus wrote: »

They are committed to implementing the EU customs tarriff, and if the EU makes a trade deal under which the tariff on widgets from Teapotistan is reduced to zero, then non-EU countries in a customs union must also reduce their tariff on Teapotistani widgets to zero.

Turkey puts up with this because it aspires to EU membership, and hopes ultimately to benefit from the EU/Teapotistan trade deal.

Turkey doesn't put up with anything and most especially not because it aspires to EU membership. Turkey has been in a CU for more than twenty years and for at least the last ten of those, EU membership has been in effect a dead duck.

It has a CU with the EU because it is in Turkey's interests to have one. It doesn't apply to agricultural goods but it has made it possible for Turkey to develop an EU market for its automotive and light industries such as electrical appliances, clothing and much else. Meanwhile Turkey also has strong trade links with Central and East Asia and the Middle East, where it enjoys significant competitive advantages.

Turkey's Customs Union with the EU is not some sort of penance or purgatory to be endured while it waits to enter heaven. It is part of a wider economic strategy that includes but is far from dependent on the EU.

Water John

An example is, Turkey manufactures a lot of parts for EU agri tractors and machinery. The CU really facilitates this.

First Up

Water John wrote: »

An example is, Turkey manufactures a lot of parts for EU agri tractors and machinery. The CU really facilitates this.

Correct; there is a large flow of components and materials in both directions. If the UK does not have similar unimpeded access to both supplies and markets, a number of industries will be foooked.

LeinsterDub

Hurrache wrote: »

He's hilarious. He's basically saying that because there was no hard border between London boroughs for the congestion charges there's no need one between the republic and the north.

Well the boroughs of London have regulatory alignment .Perhaps he's suggesting this level of alignment post brexit..... perhaps not.

seamus

Hurrache wrote: »

He's hilarious. He's basically saying that because there was no hard border between London boroughs for the congestion charges there's no need one between the republic and the north.

I genuinely think that Boris and his ilk do not fathom that the Republic is a completely sovereign state, and not a part of some "realm" or dependency of the British crown.

Even though this should be Geography 101 for anyone in the UK, politicians especially, I think there is a cohort who just don't get it.

ancapailldorcha

seamus wrote: »

I genuinely think that Boris and his ilk do not fathom that the Republic is a completely sovereign state, and not a part of some "realm" or dependency of the British crown.

Even though this should be Geography 101 for anyone in the UK, politicians especially, I think there is a cohort who just don't get it.

Anecdotal but if there is a single subject the British are less informed about than the EU, it's Ireland. This isn't surprising at all but it's going to lead nowhere good for either the UK or the Irish Republic.

Hurrache

seamus wrote: »

I genuinely think that Boris and his ilk do not fathom that the Republic is a completely sovereign state, and not a part of some "realm" or dependency of the British crown.

Even though this should be Geography 101 for anyone in the UK, politicians especially, I think there is a cohort who just don't get it.

At this stage I honestly don't know, is he as you suggest, is he purposely playing dumb, does he literally know where someone buried a body to be in the positions of power he'd found himself in, I've no idea.

Leroy42

TBF to Boris, I think he is trying, badly, to make the point that technology meant that the London charge system was seamless and thus the border could be the same.

Of course it is absolute nonsense, as it fails to take into account the myriad differences and complexities in a border issue, but I don't think he is trying to say that NI and Ireland as simply two sides of the same coin,

It does come out like that though.

I think it comes from the apparent position that the UK has set itself that it believes that there are answers to all these questions, but someone else really should come up with it. As Boris is a leading driver of Brexit, simply claiming that there is 'probably' a technical answer without having actually done any research is not acceptable.

All interviewers should be pushing the brexiteers harder at this stage. Its not about balance, Brexit is going ahead, surely they need to be coming up with concrete solutions to the many and varied issues that people have brought up. At present, all we have got is that future trade deals will work it all out, and nobody even asks what happens in the meantime!

Hurrache

Leroy42 wrote: »

but I don't think he is trying to say that NI and Ireland as simply two sides of the same coin,

Yeah, I understand where he was trying to go, but it's still a bizarre comparison.

Water John

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-02-27/johnson-compares-irish-border-to-london-traffic-brexit-update

Even Wales a throwing a strop;

Trouble Brewing in May’s Beloved Wales (11:43 a.m.)
Meanwhile in Cardiff, the Labour-led Welsh government said it would draft a bill to allow EU regulations to carry on in Wales following Brexit if necessary. The move reflects the fact that so far the Westminster government hasn’t been able to satisfy the devolved administrations in the U.K. that they won’t grab powers when they return from Brussels.

Earlier Tuesday, Scotland’s First Minister Nicola Sturgeon told the BBC, “I will not sign up to something that effectively undermines the whole foundation on which devolution is built and no first minister, no Scottish government worth its salt, should do so.”

gucci

Hurrache wrote: »

He's hilarious. He's basically saying that because there was no hard border between London boroughs for the congestion charges there's no need one between the republic and the north.


https://twitter.com/BBCr4today/status/968406960776376320



Interviewer said you can't compare the two, he replied



Reactions and face palms across the political spectrum covered here
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2018/feb/27/brexit-former-international-trade-department-chief-dismisses-foxs-case-for-leaving-customs-union-politics-live

HIS JOB IS TO SAY THE STUPID SH1T SO THE MASSES WILL LATCH ON TO THAT WATERS DOWN THE REAL ISSUES.

At a guess 80% of the main land folk couldn't give a fiddlers what happens to the Irish border, or even comprehend why it is an issue.

(Sorry for shouting, it wasn't meant to be at you Hurrache I am just thoroughly depressed by all this faffing and hot air..........Imagine what the UK government could have spent the last 2 years doing if they didn't have all this stuff to dine out on?)

Water John

His other purpose is to deflect from what Corbyn said yesterday.
Urgent message to Boris from Tory HQ. Boris say something, anything, the media will latch onto it.

listermint

Fox on sky news basically saying there are so many deals out there just deals everywhere and that our hands are being tied behind our backs.

Oh and the UK is being stopped by the EU in 'assisting developing countries' to develop. And the UK want to assist and help developing countries out of their sorry economies.

Water John

Water John wrote: »

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-02-27/johnson-compares-irish-border-to-london-traffic-brexit-update

Even Wales a throwing a strop;

Trouble Brewing in May’s Beloved Wales (11:43 a.m.)
Meanwhile in Cardiff, the Labour-led Welsh government said it would draft a bill to allow EU regulations to carry on in Wales following Brexit if necessary. The move reflects the fact that so far the Westminster government hasn’t been able to satisfy the devolved administrations in the U.K. that they won’t grab powers when they return from Brussels.

Earlier Tuesday, Scotland’s First Minister Nicola Sturgeon told the BBC, “I will not sign up to something that effectively undermines the whole foundation on which devolution is built and no first minister, no Scottish government worth its salt, should do so.”

So Wales, that voted to leave the EU, wants to put in a border with England?

Leroy42

listermint wrote: »

Fox on sky news basically saying there are so many deals out there just deals everywhere and that our hands are being tied behind our backs.

Oh and the UK is being stopped by the EU in 'assisting developing countries' to develop. And the UK want to assist and help developing countries out of their sorry economies.

Except that they want to reduce the aid budget!

And in terms of Boris saying stupid things, yes I completely agree. It has been his entire modus operandi.

Very like Trump in that respect.

But that is where the media is failing miserably. When someone points out a position they need to question it. It is not about very fair (which seems to imply that you can't ask a question unless you ask of question of Labour) it is about holding people account for the statements they make.

So Liam Fox saying that there is loads of deals out there. OK, fine, like what, name them. What sort of values are we talking about? and how quickly will we see the benefits? Will there be a lag between possible loss of EU trade and this new deal?

But none of that is being asked. Like in regard to the regulations. What is so bad about the regulations that you want changed and what benefit/costs will the changin in regulations result in? None of this stuff is being properly debated, it is all "You oppose democracy" or "the people have spoken" etc.

listermint

Leroy42 wrote: »

Except that they want to reduce the aid budget!

Exactly!

I think this was purposeful with a view to WTO perhaps looking for political capital from smaller nations

Sam Russell

Leroy42 wrote: »

listermint wrote: »

Fox on sky news basically saying there are so many deals out there just deals everywhere and that our hands are being tied behind our backs.

Oh and the UK is being stopped by the EU in 'assisting developing countries' to develop. And the UK want to assist and help developing countries out of their sorry economies.

Except that they want to reduce the aid budget!

The EU has many arrangements with the developing countries to help them get access to European markets - eg bananas and sugar.

The EU have gone a long way to help aid poor countries.

Skedaddle

Sure just ignore all of that and nobody will bother fact checking anyway. Just remember the EU eats kittens. That's the main Tory party message.

Facts don't matter in this debate. It's exactly like Trump. Throw mud, keep throwing mud and eventually it sticks as there's nobody really that bothered checking into the facts or, they'll have a bias toward hearing what they want to hear to reaffirm Brexit.

An open Britian, with tightly closed borders.

CelticRambler

Liam Fox accuses Labour of "inept, incoherent and clueless performance" in recent days? :pac::pac::pac::pac::pac::pac::pac:

I don't know why they bother with these speeches, repeating the same nonsense day after day: "we want [insert fantasy here]" but we're not going to give even the slightest hint of how we'll reconcile the inherent contradictions concerned. :rolleyes:

Loved how he used the example of the growth of the UK's drinks export thanks to the EU's FTA agreement with South Korea as an example of why it'd be better to be not in the EU. :cool:

listermint

CelticRambler wrote: »

Liam Fox accuses Labour of "inept, incoherent and clueless performance" in recent days? :pac::pac::pac::pac::pac::pac::pac:

I don't know why they bother with these speeches, repeating the same nonsense day after day: "we want [insert fantasy here]" but we're not going to give even the slightest hint of how we'll reconcile the inherent contradictions concerned. :rolleyes:

Loved how he used the example of the growth of the UK's drinks export thanks to the EU's FTA agreement with South Korea as an example of why it'd be better to be not in the EU. :cool:

I particularly enjoyed that one, and frankly would have loved a reporter to ask him a question on it. Its a fairly easy target to catch him out on.

Leroy42

Skedaddle wrote: »

Sure just ignore all of that and nobody will bother fact checking anyway. Just remember the EU eats kittens. That's the main Tory party message.

Facts don't matter in this debate. It's exactly like Trump. Throw mud, keep throwing mud and eventually it sticks as there's nobody really that bothered checking into the facts or, they'll have a bias toward hearing what they want to hear to reaffirm Brexit.

An open Britian, with tightly closed borders.

It really is staggering that a year after becoming the government (I am being nice and not counting the fact they were there already) May and the cabinet has failed to even come up with a coherent strategy of how to tackle the biggest crisis facing the country in years.

They are still playing with words, hiding behind slogans, trying to attack the Labour party. I especially love the fact that anytime this is brought up to the government, they state that nobody gave Phase1 a chance of success but May delivered, seemingly totally unaware that it is precisely because of what May agreed in Phase 1 that the UK find themselves in this position now. All Phase 1 did was move the deadline day back a bit and paint the UK into a tighter corner.

Hurrache

gucci wrote: »

Imagine what the UK government could have spent the last 2 years doing if they didn't have all this stuff to dine out on?)

As Johnson himself said

https://twitter.com/mrjamesob/status/968406204060925953

Skedaddle wrote: »

Just remember the EU eats kittens.

Worse, they use plastic bottles ! Gove tweeted this to Tusk! Gove will probably strike this up as a win in negotiations!

https://twitter.com/michaelgove/status/968453874758582272

Skedaddle

Skedaddle wrote: »

Facts don't matter in this debate. It's exactly like Trump. Throw mud, keep throwing mud and eventually it sticks as there's nobody really that bothered checking into the facts.

yes, indeed

listermint

Aegir wrote: »

yes, indeed

I am sure you will enlighten everyone with all these factual 'deals' and 'trade' that is awaiting as soon as the EU door closes.

With facts please.

Since you always seem to take some issue with facts and figures provided in the opposite direction.

listermint

listermint wrote: »

Since you always seem to take some issue with facts and figures provided in the opposite direction.

No one side in this debate has any sort of monopoly on mud throwing. Just because you hear something you like, that doesn't mean it isn't bull****.

First Up

Aegir wrote: »

listermint wrote: »

Since you always seem to take some issue with facts and figures provided in the opposite direction.

No one side in this debate has any sort of monopoly on mud throwing. Just because you hear something you like, that doesn't mean it isn't bull****.

Facts are facts. Anything else is bulls****.

Disliking the facts or the bulls*** doesn't decide which is which.

First Up

First Up wrote: »

Facts are facts. Anything else is bulls****.

Disliking the facts or the bulls*** doesn't decide which is which.

Yes. Indeed.

Skedaddle

Aegir wrote: »

No one side in this debate has any sort of monopoly on mud throwing. Just because you hear something you like, that doesn't mean it isn't bull****.

Care to give some examples of mud being thrown by the EU? I'm genuinely curious.

Skedaddle

Skedaddle wrote: »

Care to give some examples of mud being thrown by the EU? I'm genuinely curious.

I was thinking more about on here to be honest.

Professor Moriarty

This from Mairéad McGuinness on BBC today when asked about Boris's comments this morning:

I've stopped being shocked by what the foreign secretary has said on any issues. On the border question however he must realise that two boroughs in London are in the same country. What we are talking about here is the border between the republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland which is a part of the UK and therefore in a very different space. So his comments aren’t surprising but they aren’t helpful.

I don’t buy [a frictionless border] in fact I don’t even really listen to it. Has Mr Johnson any idea of what happens along the border? How they trade particularly in livestock, how milk is produced on farms in Northern Ireland and comes to the South for processing? How are we going to stop the milk flow? Who’s going to check origin?

The solution and the possibilities that he’s proposing by technology fails to understand the history, the geography or the politics.


Ouch. The truth hurts.

Water John

I see Peter Hain is actively defending the good work done in relation to NI.

He is putting down an amendment, to ensure a frictionless Irish border.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/feb/27/peter-hain-tables-brexit-amendment-frictionless-irish-border

The amendment has been tabled by Hain and three others: the Conservative peer and former pensions minister Ros Altmann; the former head of the civil service Bob Kerslake; and the Lib Dem peer Alison Suttie.


Cross-party peers are expressing support for the amendment, including Lord Kerr, the former diplomat who authored article 50.

“Inside government, I watched and admired as John Major, Tony Blair and Bertie Ahern [the former taoiseach] helped bury the Troubles. We must not let Brexit, and ‘little Englander’ atavism turn back the clock,” said Kerr.

CelticRambler

If the Tories hadn't been in such a rush to trigger Article 50, they could have turned NI and the Irish Border Problem to their advantage, using the GFA and existing EU alignment to work with the Republic on developing "smart" solutions to cross-border trade. They could have quietly introduced secondary "Irish Sea" controls as part of the trial process without upsetting the DUP, and eventually gone on to sell the proven technology to other countries that aspire to have "frictionless borders".

There's a grain of truth in what BoJo said this morning: there's an awful lot of technology already in use around the world that enables real-time monitoring of goods, vehicles and people. Add in something like blockchain verification during the production process and you're not far off the techological solution that's being touted as the UK's Holy Grail.

Except, of course, Brexiteers put ideology ahead of commonsense and rational decision-making.

Mr.Nice Guy

It sounds like the DUP may well go into meltdown over the next 24 hours...

https://twitter.com/DMcCaffreySKY/status/968556134796849152

https://twitter.com/julianoneill/status/968552718955696128

Leroy42

I agree that technology is starting to exist, but the it is not in place yet and it will take some convincing the EU that it is workable. What have the UK done to show this?

The other major issue that they have is the continued insistence that they want to move away from regulatory alignment. This is a central point of their public statements. Are the EU supposed to believe that they will run dual/multiple regulatory environments? And who is going to police that? They would have to put their faith in the UK authorities.

Are there frictionless borders in place between other non-club members (like USA/Canada or any South American countries?)

Water John

The best operated joint border posts are between Norway and Sweden. They are not frictionless.

As I said, wait for the wailing headlines in the UK on Thurs, because of the EU draft legal text.

Sam Russell

If NI are in the CU and the SM, they must be under ECJ jurisdiction. How will that work? Will the UK Supreme Court refer questions to it>

Econ_

Tomorrow will be the first time that the fantasies of Mrs May and the hard Brexiteers come up against the hard truth of reality.

Water John

The legal text tomorrow, running to 100 pages, should contain the answer to your question and many others.

J Mysterio

Sinn Fein spokesman just on Sky News. Sammy Wilson of DUP coming up imminently.

J Mysterio

Econ_ wrote: »

Tomorrow will be the first time that the fantasies of Mrs May and the hard Brexiteers come up against the hard truth of reality.

Anti Brexit voices are growing louder. That former secretary to Fox has been particularly damning. He's putting in the yards too, was on Drivetime earlier.

Professor Moriarty

Johnson wrote to May that the government's job is to stop the Irish border becoming significantly harder after Brexit and not to maintain the no border status quo.

So the GFA doesn't mean anything.

Water John

Sammy Wilson accused Corbyn of 'cheap political opportunism' ha.

Sammy, the Emperor's new clothes, Wilson.
We remember.

J Mysterio

Water John wrote: »

I see Peter Hain is actively defending the good work done in relation to NI.

Very interesting, thanks. Fair play to him.

Mr.Nice Guy

Faisal Islam covering the leaked letter. These bits from Johnson stand out:

"it is wrong to see the task as maintaining 'no border'"

"He [Johnson] also goes as far as contemplating a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland, writing: "Even if a hard border is reintroduced, we would expect to see 95% + of goods pass the border [without] checks."

https://news.sky.com/story/boris-johnson-tells-pm-wrong-to-see-govt-task-as-no-irish-border-after-brexit-11270041

So his language has shifted from November's "There can be no hard border" to essentially, "So, Teresa, about this hard border..."

The Brexiteers are willing to sacrifice the Good Friday Agreement to achieve their aims.

Very important for our government and the EU to stand firmly behind the GFA.

Hurrache

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Johnson wrote to May that the government's job is to stop the Irish border becoming significantly harder after Brexit and not to maintain the no border status quo.

So the GFA doesn't mean anything.

Lead story on Sky News, basically saying that the UK Government should no longer have an obligation to make an effort into ensuring there's no change at the border, despite he himself saying before the referendum that there'll be no change. He's a danger.

J Mysterio

Sky News is giving loads of coverage on Ireland today. Ive been watching new content on Ireland for an hour at least and more to come.

Mostly good content to be fair. What stood out was they are running with a 'leak' that Boris sent a letter to May stressing that a 'significantly harder border' will be difficult to avoid. Shocking.

London are attempting to apply some unconventional pressure it seems, in light of the WA coming tomorrow. This leak in tandem with TM reaching out to Leo yesterday (or the day before). The leak is timely also given his oyher comments (gaffe) today.

Some excerpts of the leak, as picked out by Faisal Islam (my italics):

"It is wrong to see the task as maintaing no border"
(We will be maintaining the border

"The aim of policy post Brexit is to stop this border becoming significantly harder"
(It can get a bit harder, but not significantly)

"Even if a hard border is reintroduced, we would expect 95% of goods to pass unchecked."
(We will be checking goods)

Boris doesnt give a toss. Just thinking back to his visit to the Dail now. How bizarre that was. Now he is lazily addressing the NI situation in this leak and comparing Ireland to London boroughs like its just another small part of the UK. How is this absolute fućkwıt dinosaur the Foreign Secretary?

J Mysterio

It took me so long to type that up I see the news has already broke several times here :pac: