Brexit discussion thread III

Capt'n Midnight

https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2018/0227/944002-eu-customs-border/

The territory of Northern Ireland may be considered part of European Union customs territory post-Brexit, according to a draft legal text to be adopted by the European Commission tomorrow, RTÉ News understands.
...
The carefully worded text will allude to a single regulatory space on the island of Ireland with no internal barriers.

*gets popcorn*


"carefully worded text " the devil as they say is in the detail.

Mr.Nice Guy

One thing that is in our favour is the timing of all this. In a little over a fortnight will be the St. Patrick's Day trip. This year also marks the 20th anniversary of the Good Friday Agreement. The core message from the Irish administration's visit over there should be emphasizing the importance of the Agreement and how significant the US assistance was in making it happen. The government here has already received a commitment from Rex Tillerson that the US government will appoint a Special Envoy to NI due to the political difficulties of late there.

This is all useful because while the Brexiteers may be willing to stick two fingers up to ourselves and perhaps other EU nations, they absolutely won't do it to the Americans - they need them too much. If we get them on side with regards standing up for the Agreement, that will be a big help.

Capt'n Midnight

Meanwhile Scotland isn't 100% behind Team GB

Nicola Sturgeon rejects offer in Brexit devolution row

Scottish government publishes alternative Brexit bill

Legally there is no issue as Westminster can ride rough shod over the regional assemblies. But it can seem anti-democratic. And it's more distraction from Brexit and trade negotiations. Salmon and Whisky are big exports from the UK to Asia and the US, and if there's any uncertainty about Scotland's place in the Union...

Water John

UK and DUP will get stroppy over text. EU will tell them, come up with a better formula that, gives voice to what you promised last Dec. No coherent answer.
Game, set and match.

J Mysterio

Sammy Wilson: "if there has to be checks, let there be checks". Stressing 'virtual border' and cameras.

Or alignment of Ireland and UK :pac:

Saying Irish negotiated December agreement in bad faith.

FrancieBrady

I said at the start of this the DUP would get shafted ultimately. Because it is the only real solution to the problem.

The UK will now proceed to 'sure what can we do, the EU are feckers...etc etc'.

What does the GFA say about the border?

Nody

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I said at the start of this the DUP would get shafted ultimately. Because it is the only real solution to the problem.

The UK will now proceed to 'sure what can we do, the EU are feckers...etc etc'.

There are only two realistic outcomes; either DUP gets shafted as you note or the Hardcore "We don't need EU's deal anyway" Brexiteers take over and crash UK out in the worst possible way. The problem is the first means May will need to in essence get DUP to surrender (they are waaaay to extreme for that to happen imho) or her government will be voted out (not even talking about the key brexit votes on legislation that still needs to pass etc.). That means a new government has to take it's place which means either a hardcore Brexiteer government (DUP supports no other kind) or a new election (which no Tory wants) has to happen. After all the hard Brexiteers only need to stall the time to succeed; they don't need to win any major votes etc. to get what they want compared to the softer Brexiteers/EEA/Remainers. That is what should scare people...

Water John

Sammy was giving backing to Boris, earlier in the day, with his London analogy.
One buffoon backing another buffoon.

What the hell is 'bad faith'? Going back on your word, is exactly that. But it's on the UK side, if they try bluster, like that.

Capt'n Midnight

“Northern Ireland to become an EU province” after a Brexit breakdown. Did we not know that already?

(My Highlighing)

Tomorrow the EU will publish its legal version of December’s joint Report or Withdrawal Agreement that was supposed to guarantee against a hard border. The intention is to remove any idea of a fudged political deal that could be changed later. It will however become the EU’s law not the UK’s. Britain will argue that Withdrawal Agreement will be superseded as a result of a final free trade agreement.

So the cakers can keep believing whatever they want until reality kicks in.

However as has been well trailed, it will omit the guarantees given to the DUP after they’d held up that part of the agreement they thought they’d secured, against the alternative of an economic border in the Irish Sea. This is because that aspect was a deal between the government and the DUP and thus a British internal matter not involving the EU.

Because Stormont is offline the Billion Pounds Sterling that the DUP sold out for hasn't been delivered. (AFAIK just £0.02Bn delivered and the rest of the £0.05Bn to be spent in the new UK financial year from April). Maybe May's deal wasn't so stupid ?
or maybe it's dumb and dumber ?

Hurrache

Reactions coming in from the DUP as predicted

https://twitter.com/J_Donaldson_MP/status/968560597892849664

Mr.Nice Guy

The DUP are going to be majorly on the defensive over the next 48 hours and being defensive for the DUP of course means going on the offensive. Expect Sammy Wilson, Ian Paisley Jr, Jeffrey Donaldson and Gregory Campbell to be throwing around plenty of pejorative language towards the EU, and by that we mean towards Dublin. "Grubby Dublin" this, "opportunistic nationalists" that etc. You can almost see the script. BBC Radio Ulster will be filled with it tomorrow, especially The Nolan Show.

The problem for the DUP is they can't go back to their support base and admit that by backing Brexit they have helped weaken NI's position in the Union - as even the UUP warned them at the time. They also can't accuse May and her government of being at fault because they are propping them up. That leaves the tried and tested solution for unionism: blame Dublin for wanting to bring about a United Ireland by stealth. No better way to get their base to fall into line and most of them are fully behind Brexit.

What's funny is many of them will be talking about how this EU deal undermines the Good Friday Agreement - an agreement that the DUP opposed, have never spoken warmly about, and which they themselves compromised by getting into bed with the British government who theoretically were supposed to remain a neutral co-guarantor of the agreement.

If nothing else, it will be amusing.

Hurrache

Reactions coming in from the DUP as predicted

https://twitter.com/J_Donaldson_MP/status/968560597892849664

Capt'n Midnight

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

This from Mairéad McGuinness on BBC today when asked about Boris's comments this morning:

How many cakers realise that they are playing the border game on the easy settings, it could be a lot harder.

The party in power is FG. Tthe other party that can form a government, is FF and they are going to be far harder on the border because both parties until very recently were defined by being on opposite sides on a civil war fought in large part over FF rejecting partition. Also there's the whole FF vs SF thing about who is the most Nationalist party.

Can you imagine telling someone from a few years ago that FG would be the ones defending the rights of both sides in NI while FF and SF watch from the sidelines ? Strange days indeed

Probably worth mentioning to most Brexiteers that our current Gov is the closest we'll get to Thatcherism/Tory values, and then, by-the-way our PM is the gay son of an immigrant. put that in your pipe and smoke it



I'll say it again - they are playing the border game on the easy settings, it could be a lot harder.



Also do the cakers realise that the vice president of the EU is Irish ?

J Mysterio

Im frankly amazed at the coverage on Sky. They are hammering the Government, and giving huge coverage to the Irish perspective - basically taking 'the Irish side' in the face of the UK's ineptitude. It's pretty incredible.

Water John

Interesting too that at this time, Cambridge Analytica are before the House of Commons Committee. CEO and Aaron Banks giving opposite accounts.
Who is telling the truth?

But while Nix was still in front of the committee, his claims were challenged by Banks himself, who tweeted: “Cambridge Analytica appeared in the submission document” that Leave.EU had filed when it was trying to become the official leave campaign, a position later filled by the Boris Johnson-backed Vote Leave. That public document notes Cambridge Analytica as a “strategic partner”.


Banks also tweeted: “CA wanted a fee of £1m to start work & then said they would raise £6m in the states. We declined the offer because it was illegal.” When Banks’s tweet was read out during the hearing, Nix described it as “absolutely incorrect”. “Look, Mr Banks is at liberty to say whatever he likes, but I don’t have to agree with it,” he added. “That is totally untrue.”

In response, Banks tweeted: “Nix & Cambridge Analytica are compulsive liars.”

Water John

But while Nix was still in front of the committee, his claims were challenged by Banks himself, who tweeted: “Cambridge Analytica appeared in the submission document” that Leave.EU had filed when it was trying to become the official leave campaign, a position later filled by the Boris Johnson-backed Vote Leave. That public document notes Cambridge Analytica as a “strategic partner”.


Arron Banks: ‘Brexit was a war. We won. There’s no turning back now’
Read more
Banks also tweeted: “CA wanted a fee of £1m to start work & then said they would raise £6m in the states. We declined the offer because it was illegal.” When Banks’s tweet was read out during the hearing, Nix described it as “absolutely incorrect”. “Look, Mr Banks is at liberty to say whatever he likes, but I don’t have to agree with it,” he added. “That is totally untrue.”

In response, Banks tweeted: “Nix & Cambridge Analytica are compulsive liars.”

murphaph

J Mysterio wrote: »

Im frankly amazed at the coverage on Sky. They are hammering the Government, and giving huge coverage to the Irish perspective - basically taking 'the Irish side' in the face of the UK's ineptitude. It's pretty incredible.

I've found Faisal Islam to be one of the most informed journalists covering Brexit. Sky has long had a focus on Ireland that other UK media doesn't, probably because sky has Irish customers.

Capt'n Midnight

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Also do the cakers realise that the vice president of the EU is Irish ?

The Eu has a Vice President?

briany

How badly are the UK snookered, if you were to literally describe their position at a snooker table?

ancapailldorcha

briany wrote: »

How badly are the UK snookered, if you were to literally describe their position at a snooker table?

Serious discussion only, please.

Sam Russell

Aegir wrote: »

The Eu has a Vice President?

I think that is a reference to Mairead McGuinness, VP of the EU Parliament.

Enzokk

Aegir wrote: »

So Wales, that voted to leave the EU, wants to put in a border with England?

Yes, and Northern Ireland that voted to stay in the EU is having a borders imposed on it by the UK parliament. Seems only fair that if NI can have its wishes of the referendum ignored that the Welsh politicians can do the same. It won't work though, but they can always try.

Aegir wrote: »

What does the GFA say about the border?

I am not sure if you really want to know or you just want to argue a point. If you want to argue a point that there is no mention of the border in the GFA, please come out and say it. If you are looking for information of the GFA and the EU, below is a few links that you may (or not) find interesting. Granted they are from the EU, but seeing as the UK has totally dropped the ball then this will have to do.

The Impact and Consequences of Brexit for
Northern Ireland

Guiding principles transmitted to EU27 for the Dialogue on Ireland/Northern Ireland

Water John

Basically, the chat/side deal is between the Tories and the DUP. They promised to pay them £1bn for it. But it has nothing to do with the EU or any agreement between the UK and the EU.

Sierra Oscar

Sammy Wilson on the Tonight Show TV3. It's pretty clear the DUP will not tolerate any regulatory divergence between Northern Ireland and the rest of the United Kingdom. They will withdraw their support for the Government if it comes to it.

I find it hard to see how a hard border will not be implemented on the island of Ireland unless the entirety of the UK stays in the Customs Union. Unionists will undertake a civil disobedience campaign if regulatory divergence is pushed through and it could end in violence.

The UK Government is in a really, really bad place.

Water John

Then its up to the UK Govn't to come up with a better acceptable solution. This is what they agreed to 2 months ago.

Sierra Oscar

Water John wrote: »

Then its up to the UK Govn't to come up with a better acceptable solution. This is what they agreed to 2 months ago.

The problem is the UK Government cannot come up with a better acceptable solution, hence a hard Brexit which would be destructive for all sides is on the cards.

Any hope of a second referendum has pretty much expired now. The only real workable alternative is for the UK to stay in the Customs Union, and that would require a change of Government.

I'd worry that Corbyn might not be able to deliver the strong Labour Government needed to ensure the UK stays in the Customs Union. Labour itself is plagued by infighting on Brexit too.

Which brings us back to a hard Brexit. It's a growing possibility that a hard Brexit will occur simply because the UK political system is so fractured and devoid of any real leadership on Brexit.

Junkyard Tom

If the DUP/Brextremists were so sure that a friction-less border could be put across the arbitrary line of the former border in Ireland then let them put it in the Irish Sea. The majority of people in the north who voted against Brexit will be content and Unionists won't feel a thing when they travel between Ireland and Britain.

Call me Al

Water John wrote: »

Then its up to the UK Govn't to come up with a better acceptable solution. This is what they agreed to 2 months ago.

Precisely this. They've known since last December that this is what they'd agreed to. Davis foolishly went on a damage limitation drive in the media to try and spin a yarn that this isn't what they'd really meant and nothing was set in stone, but his bluff was called.
Chickens have come home to roost now, so they're either true to their December word or they are shown up for the blathering incompetents I've always believed them to be.

CelticRambler

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

Unionists will undertake a civil disobedience campaign if regulatory divergence is pushed through and it could end in violence.

What kind of civil disobedience? And violence against whom? Are you suggesting that the DUP MLAs might refuse to share power with their Sinn Féin counterparts? Bit late for that. Perhaps their MPs would refuse to take their seats in Westminster? Or they could refuse to cooperate with border checks ... oh, hang on ... :rolleyes:. Well then, maybe they could boycott all UK imports in protest. Or (those who have them) hand back their Irish passports in disgust. :pac:

The DUP painted themselves into a corner, shackled themselves to a lame-duck government, and squandered the very best opportunity that was presented to them back in December for the sake of ideology. They can rant and rave all they like, but the only oppressor they can rebel against is the one that they are so utterly determined to pledge allegiance to.

Vronsky

CelticRambler wrote: »

What kind of civil disobedience? And violence against whom? Are you suggesting that the DUP MLAs might refuse to share power with their Sinn Féin counterparts? Bit late for that. Perhaps their MPs would refuse to take their seats in Westminster? Or they could refuse to cooperate with border checks ... oh, hang on ... :rolleyes:. Well then, maybe they could boycott all UK imports in protest. Or (those who have them) hand back their Irish passports in disgust. :pac:

The DUP painted themselves into a corner, shackled themselves to a lame-duck government, and squandered the very best opportunity that was presented to them back in December for the sake of ideology. They can rant and rave all they like, but the only oppressor they can rebel against is the one that they are so utterly determined to pledge allegiance to.

Presumably unionists would organise a general strike.

Junkyard Tom

Vronsky wrote: »

Presumably unionists would organise a general strike.

Couldn't see every Unionist participating never mind the majority of the workforce who aren't unionist or pro-Brexit. So maybe 1-in-3 or 2-in-5 people go on strike?

Wouldn't last long.

Sierra Oscar

CelticRambler wrote: »

What kind of civil disobedience? And violence against whom? Are you suggesting that the DUP MLAs might refuse to share power with their Sinn Féin counterparts? Bit late for that. Perhaps their MPs would refuse to take their seats in Westminster? Or they could refuse to cooperate with border checks ... oh, hang on ... :rolleyes:. Well then, maybe they could boycott all UK imports in protest. Or (those who have them) hand back their Irish passports in disgust. :pac:

The hardcore unionists have brought Northern Ireland to a halt in the past and I've no doubt they would do it again if they feel they are being forced to separate from the UK on what they perceive as the insistence of the Irish Government and the EU Commission. Let's not forget the Ulster Workers' Council strike and how successful it was in the past.

I don't want to sound too alarmist, but Northern Ireland is never too far away from conflict.

Keep in mind the Ulster Defence Association is still active. The DUP actually fear losing the support of the hardcore unionists. Talk to any 'career politician' in the DUP and they will tell you that they know the only future for Northern Ireland is in the Customs Union and wider EU. However they know this message is unsellable to their core supporters if it means divergence from the rest of the UK - especially when Sinn Féin are already actively campaigning for a United Ireland on the back of Brexit.

Hence the DUP will ultimately be happier to see a hard border on the island of Ireland, which will be mutually destructive for all, rather than introduce what they perceive is the thin edge of the wedge which could mark the end of Northern Ireland in the UK, the possible creation of an independent Northern Ireland, which would ultimately shortly lead to a United Ireland.

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

Couldn't see every Unionist participating never mind the majority of the workforce who aren't unionist or pro-Brexit. So maybe 1-in-3 or 2-in-5 people go on strike?

Wouldn't last long.

The PIRA didn't have majority support of the nationalist community and they still managed to create plenty of disruption down through the years.

Junkyard Tom

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

The hardcore unionists have brought Northern Ireland to a halt in the past and I've no doubt they would do it again if they feel they are being forced to separate from the UK on what they perceive as the insistence of the Irish Government and the EU Commission. Let's not forget the Ulster Workers' Council strike and how successful it was in the past.

As I've alluded to above Unionists were a majority of the population, had a large majority of the jobs, basically controlled the public sector including the power stations, and were in control of the vast majority of the private sector.

That's no longer the case.

Junkyard Tom

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

The PIRA didn't have majority support of the nationalist community and they still managed to create plenty of disruption down through the years.

They'd substantial support in the nationalist community north and south and in the Irish diaspora.

Regardless, who would the 'Unionist Resistance' target for disruption/attack?

Charles Babbage

Enzokk wrote: »

I am not sure if you really want to know or you just want to argue a point. If you want to argue a point that there is no mention of the border in the GFA, please come out and say it. If you are looking for information of the GFA and the EU, below is a few links that you may (or not) find interesting. Granted they are from the EU, but seeing as the UK has totally dropped the ball then this will have to do.

The GFA and the Anglo Irish agreement before it obliged the governments to work together on cross border economic development. Saying that there isn't a specific line in the GFA simply reflects that it wasn't directly discussed at the time. If the British renege on the principle of consultation then they have overthrown 33 years of moving toward peace.

Sierra Oscar wrote:

The hardcore unionists have brought Northern Ireland to a halt in the past and I've no doubt they would do it again if they feel they are being forced to separate from the UK on what they perceive as the insistence of the Irish Government and the EU Commission. Let's not forget the Ulster Workers' Council strike and how successful it was in the past.

That was 44 years ago, not relevant to today, things have changed hugely. The point is that controls on the border provide actual targets for dissatisfied individuals, controls at Liverpool or Cairnryan do not. There will be less "trouble" with an Irish sea border. But the other issue is that if there is a macho Brexit there will be calls for a border poll, and opinion polls suggest this would be very close in that case. This would likely agitate the unionists more, so the British would be wise to avoid that.

ArthurDayne

I have barely even been able to look at this thread for while. Such is the utter incoherent incompetence of the whole sorry Brexit debacle -- and such is my acute frustration that this steaming pile of manure should ever have been foisted upon us -- that I find my heart decreasingly able to convince my head to devote any further mental energy to it. That we should have been dragged into this swamp because of the insecurities of English nationalism, dressed up in spiel about sovereignty and control, is even more frustrating.

But here we are -- and sadly I feel the disUnited Kingdom now resembles nothing more than an army that has crossed the Rubicon but has no idea who, what or where it should be fighting. The Central Bank of Ireland, similar to its regulatory counterparts in France, Germany, Luxembourg and elsewhere in Europe, are seeking clarity from regulated financial institutions on their Brexit plans. Dialogue is taking place at an individual institution level between the IFSC banks and the Central Bank to discuss Brexit plans. For many firms now, they need to be providing regulators with solid plans so that they can be given the necessary regulatory green lights to push forward their strategies. That requires certainty -- and the only thing that is certain right now is that 27 of the 28 current EU member states will be remaining members for the foreseeable future -- while the UK remains anybody's guess. With the lack of certainty, any responsible Risk department must simply assume a worst case scenario hard Brexit is looming and that the corporate strategy to be adopted will reflect that. Law firms and the Big Four have been churning out regulatory access maps for their clients to help them identify how they safeguard their business channels in Europe -- all of which are acting on a hard Brexit assumption.

I have said it before, and based on my own experience working in financial services, these big companies really want to keep their business models as close to the current frame as possible. They want to be able to keep their major hubs in London, where the top brass have carved out their home in that great city, with all its amenities for the wealthy banker and his/her family. But the British government is quite simply and quite spectacularly failing to provide these companies with the certainty they need, and patience is deteriorating.

The British really need to get their act together, but I simply cannot see who is going to take the bull by the horns -- or how.

Peregrinus

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

Sammy Wilson on the Tonight Show TV3. It's pretty clear the DUP will not tolerate any regulatory divergence between Northern Ireland and the rest of the United Kingdom. They will withdraw their support for the Government if it comes to it.

I find it hard to see how a hard border will not be implemented on the island of Ireland unless the entirety of the UK stays in the Customs Union. Unionists will undertake a civil disobedience campaign if regulatory divergence is pushed through and it could end in violence.

The UK Government is in a really, really bad place.

It all comes down to timing.

Assume a Withdrawal Agreement is negotiated, and that it provides for an implementation period.

Brexit Day is 30 March 2019. But that marks the start of the implementation period, and during the implementation period the whole of the UK will (in effect) remain in the customs union and the single market, so there’ll be no hard border.

The implementation period will almost certainly end on 31 December 2020. That is the earliest date on which a hard border might arise.

The withdrawal agreement, reflecting the phase 1 report, will say that even after the end of the implementation period there will be no hard border, and that this will be achieved by:

(a) an agreed EU/UK trade deal whose terms make a hard border unnecessary; or

(b) failing that, whizz-bang technological solutions yet to be invented; or

(c) failing both of those things, “full regulatory alignment” between NI and RoI.

The withdrawal agreement may or may not contain an annex with a declaration by the UK that, if (c) prevails, it will ensure that there are no new regulatory barriers between NI and GB without the agreement of the NI institutions. Reportedly, the first text of the withdrawal agreement that the EU is about to circulate does not contain this, but the UK will certainly press for it to be included. If it is included, it won’t be expressed as an agreement between the EU and the UK,or as a commitment made by the UK to the EU, but simply as a statement by the UK of how it proposes to operate “full regulatory alignment”.

Because of the implementation period, there won’t be any new regulatory barriers between NI and GB kicking in on 30 March 2019. That doesn’t become a live issue until 31 December 2020, and then only if option (c) is the one which prevails.

Formally, we won’t know, as of 30 March 2019, which of alternatives (a), (b) and (c) is going to kick in on 31 December 2020. Realists will understand that it’s almost certainly going to be option (c), since option (a), the free trade agreement, is unlikely to have been negotiated, agreed and signed by 31 December 2020 and option (b), the technology, is a fantasy. But, formally, it could be any of them, and Brexiters in particular will insist that all are potentially viable.

So, the UK government can maintain, well after 30 March 2019. that it fully expects and intends options (a) or (b) to be implemented, and that even if option (c) is implemented this will be done without GB/NI barriers. It can continue to spin this line until quite close to 31 December 2020, and as there will actually be no new GB/NI barriers in place, the line cannot be conclusively shown to be a lie. It’s hard for the DUP to bring down the government over the possibility of GB/NI barriers when no such barriers have been introduced, and the government is committed to not introducing them.

In short, the Tories can hope to string this out until 31 December 2020, or quite close to it. And the chances of there having been a general election within that period, and so the DUP’s influence greatly diminished (and the Tories' influence diminished even more!) are quite high, I would have thought. By the time 31 December 2020 comes around, it may actually be a Labour government that has to grapple with operating option (c).

On edit: It's worth pointing out that, even if option (c) is the option which applies from 31 December 2020, and the UK wants to do this without any GB/NI barriers, that's not a state of affairs that has to continue indefinitely. They can continue to negotiate a UK/EU trade deal and, if that is concluded and it produces a sufficient degree of alignment/recognition between the UK and the EU, then option (a) can kick in. And, as already noted, by this time it's likely that the UK will have a Labour government, with a policy of remaining in the customs union, and without any signficant wing that shares in the Liam Fox delusion that trade deals with the rest of the world are a route to prosperity for the UK. Corbyn says he wants a "jobs-first" brexit, and that means not only the customs union but also a very high degree of trade integration with the EU. That's a much better position from which to try to negotiate a trade deal that can keep the Irish border open than the Tory red-lines madness.

Peregrinus

Aegir wrote: »

What does the GFA say about the border?

Enzokk wrote: »

I am not sure if you really want to know or you just want to argue a point. If you want to argue a point that there is no mention of the border in the GFA, please come out and say it. If you are looking for information of the GFA and the EU, below is a few links that you may (or not) find interesting . . .

Charles Babbage wrote: »

The GFA and the Anglo Irish agreement before it obliged the governments to work together on cross border economic development. Saying that there isn't a specific line in the GFA simply reflects that it wasn't directly discussed at the time . . .

The Good Friday Agreement says nothing about the border as such because, by the time the GFA was negotiated, in 1998, the border was already gone; it had ceased to be an issue that needed to be addressed. The UK and the Republic were both in the EU; they were both in the Customs Union; there was full regulatory alignment between them; they were both in the Single Market ; the Single Market had been completed; all requirement for customs or regulatory border controls or checks were removed by 1993, five years before the GFA.

There were still some security controls in 1993, though they were much reduced from what had prevailed in the 1980s. They were largely eliminated after the IRA ceasefires of 1994 and 1997.

I crossed the border regularly in the mid- to late-1990s, before the GFA. I encountered no controls of any kind. There was still some crumbling security infrastructure in places, but it was unmanned. I think there may have been some surveillance or monitoring of cross-border traffic , but that was the limit of it.

In short, the invisibility of the Irish border wasn’t a consequence of the Good Friday Agreement; it was part of the context which made the Good Friday Agreement thinkable, workable and acceptable to a majority in both communities.

FrancieBrady

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

The hardcore unionists have brought Northern Ireland to a halt in the past and I've no doubt they would do it again if they feel they are being forced to separate from the UK on what they perceive as the insistence of the Irish Government and the EU Commission. Let's not forget the Ulster Workers' Council strike and how successful it was in the past.

I don't want to sound too alarmist, but Northern Ireland is never too far away from conflict.

Keep in mind the Ulster Defence Association is still active. The DUP actually fear losing the support of the hardcore unionists. Talk to any 'career politician' in the DUP and they will tell you that they know the only future for Northern Ireland is in the Customs Union and wider EU. However they know this message is unsellable to their core supporters if it means divergence from the rest of the UK - especially when Sinn Féin are already actively campaigning for a United Ireland on the back of Brexit.

Hence the DUP will ultimately be happier to see a hard border on the island of Ireland, which will be mutually destructive for all, rather than introduce what they perceive is the thin edge of the wedge which could mark the end of Northern Ireland in the UK, the possible creation of an independent Northern Ireland, which would ultimately shortly lead to a United Ireland.



The PIRA didn't have majority support of the nationalist community and they still managed to create plenty of disruption down through the years.

The Ulster Workers strike only worked because it had the collusion/aid of the British Army in key places.

Again you have to think, what would be the point of civil disobedience.
I think ultimately the unionist community will heave a sigh of relef, huff a bit and get on with it. Happy that they have been saved from a rough fate.

Dont be at yourself

Not sure how the Tories will be able to square this circle. They'll either need to:

- agree to the whole UK staying in the customs union, thereby upsetting Boris, Fox, Moggs, et al
- insist on the whole UK leaving the customs union, risking a backbench rebellion
- agree to only NI staying in the customs union, thereby having DUP pull the plug on the government

I'd imagine Tories would suffer hugely in any new election. The DUP's performance would be certainly interesting to see too. I don't think either party have an appetite for another election, so I imagine they'll try to kick the can down the road again, agreeing to the UK/NI staying in a customs union until the end of the transition period, after which they'll aspire to transition to some seamless technological solution.

Peregrinus

Dont be at yourself wrote: »

Not sure how the Tories will be able to square this circle. They'll either need to:

- agree to the whole UK staying in the customs union, thereby upsetting Boris, Fox, Moggs, et al
- insist on the whole UK leaving the customs union, risking a backbench rebellion
- agree to only NI staying in the customs union, thereby having DUP pull the plug on the government

I don't think they can insist on the whole UK leaving the customs union - or, if they do, they risk much more than a "backbench rebellion". They have already committed to default regulatory alignment in NI sufficient to prevent a hard border. That pretty much means that NI has to remain, in effect if not in name, in the customs union. They signed up to this in December so, if they back down now, its no withdrawal agreement and hello, hard brexit. They won't risk that.

Dont be at yourself wrote: »

I'd imagine Tories would suffer hugely in any new election. The DUP's performance would be certainly interesting to see too. I don't think either party have an appetite for another election, so I imagine they'll try to kick the can down the road again, agreeing to the UK/NI staying in a customs union until the end of the transition period, after which they'll aspire to transition to some seamless technological solution.

Yes. I think their strategy will be:

1. Ensure that the withdrawal agreement contains a reference to their "no new GB/NI barriers" pledge.

2. Ensure that the withdrawal agreement includes both the "really good trade deal" and "magic technology" options for avoiding a hard border, and that it states that "full regulatory alignment" only applies if neither of these can be agreed. (Which is what the Phase 1 Report says, so saying it again in the withdrawal agreement should be do-able.)

3. Tell the DUP, and anyone else who will listen, that they are committed to agreeing trade deal or magic technology by 31 December 2020, so "full regulatory alignment" will never apply. And, if it does apply, they are committed to working it in a way that does not involve new GB/NI barriers, and this will be possible without constraining UK's freedom to make trade deals because oh look cake!

As you say, this only kicks the can down the road. Coming up to 31 Dec 2020 they'll still have to square the circle somehow. May has already suggested that the transitional period might continue until the trade deal kicks in, and she may be hoping against hope that she will succeed in making a trade deal which keeps the border open, so that the default of "full regulatory alignment" and the accompanying pledge of "no new NI/GB barriers" will never kick in.

LuckyLloyd

What time is the draft text published?

CelticRambler

I saw BoJo being interview on Sky this morning. While his nonsensical statement yesterday could have been excused as a brainfart in the context of a live broadcast, this morning, he seemed very determined to emphasise his delusional ignorance, badgering the reporter to admit that she'd experienced frictionless travel across the congestion charge border and - by implication - that the same thing would be possible in Ireland.

It's good to see Sky (and others) highlighting the "Irish Border" Brexit enigma, but why oh why do none of these reporters follow up with questions like "how does ANPR work without cameras?" or "as there's full regulatory alignment, a single market and customs union between Camden and Westminster, are you suggesting that that's what's needed in NI?"

Peregrinus

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

What time is the draft text published?

My sources tell me round about lunchtime.

(Lunchtime in Brussels, that is.)

The European Commission College is meeting at 11:30 (Brussels time). They're going to formally authorise the draft text. When that meeting ends Barnier will go into a press conference, and the release of the draft text is expected to coincide with the start of the press conference.

LuckyLloyd

Peregrinus wrote: »

My sources tell me round about lunchtime.

(Lunchtime in Brussels, that is.)

The European Commission College is meeting at 11:30 (Brussels time). They're going to formally authorise the draft text. When that meeting ends Barnier will go into a press conference, and the release of the draft text is expected to coincide with the start of the press conference.

This is a pretty significant day for the Irish state. One of many over the next couple of years. Fingers crossed.

For Forks Sake

sage observation from Frankie Boyle this morning:

Amusing that Conservatives who fought bitterly against Scottish Independence could well allow a united Ireland with a shrug so that their mates can get rid of regulations that keep **** out of beef burgers

Peregrinus

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

This is a pretty significant day for the Irish state. One of many over the next couple of years. Fingers crossed.

Well, it is only a draft text that is being released, and it won't contain any surprises. On the border, it will be a fleshed-out version of what the parties agreed back in December, and by all accounts it is being fleshed out in a way that is pretty satisfactory from the Irish point of view. It's the negotiations that will follow, and the final form of the text, that really matter.

First Up

CelticRambler wrote: »

I saw BoJo being interview on Sky this morning. While his nonsensical statement yesterday could have been excused as a brainfart in the context of a live broadcast, this morning, he seemed very determined to emphasise his delusional ignorance, badgering the reporter to admit that she'd experienced frictionless travel across the congestion charge border and - by implication - that the same thing would be possible in Ireland.

It's good to see Sky (and others) highlighting the "Irish Border" Brexit enigma, but why oh why do none of these reporters follow up with questions like "how does ANPR work without cameras?" or "as there's full regulatory alignment, a single market and customs union between Camden and Westminster, are you suggesting that that's what's needed in NI?"

I wish the interviewer had asked Boris how the contents of cars entering the congestion zone are checked.

LeinsterDub

Dont be at yourself wrote: »

Not sure how the Tories will be able to square this circle. They'll either need to:

- agree to the whole UK staying in the customs union, thereby upsetting Boris, Fox, Moggs, et al
- insist on the whole UK leaving the customs union, risking a backbench rebellion
- agree to only NI staying in the customs union, thereby having DUP pull the plug on the government

Tory's welcome to March 2017 , now that your on the same page as the rest of the EU any idea how you propose to solve this?