Brexit discussion thread III

Unpossible

Is there a deadline for the agreement or signing of the document being released today? Is this something that the Tories are going to drag out for a few weeks until the last minute?

Nody

Unpossible wrote: »

Is there a deadline for the agreement or signing of the document being released today? Is this something that the Tories are going to drag out for a few weeks until the last minute?

Well no talk about the trade deal until signed so theoretically no deadline at all but expect a lot of complaints about EU being bullies for not talking trade.

Vronsky

Alex Barker of the FT is tweeting extracts the draft agreement.

Essentially a sea border for NI and full regulatory alignment enforced by ECJ.

This may well cause the UK govt to fall.

Nody

Vronsky wrote: »

This may well cause the UK govt to fall.

Or / and turn into a hardcore brexiteer government who simply needs to wait out the time to ensure a hard crash out and call it a success.

Skedaddle

They need to let the people of NI vote on this realignment and not just leave to to the DUP to cause chaos with.
It's the only way May could put it 'beyond party politics' and it would be very hard for the DUP to thwart the will of the NI people. Well, they've done it plenty of times, but it would be hard to do with the international focus on it.

Capt'n Midnight

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

The hardcore unionists have brought Northern Ireland to a halt in the past and I've no doubt they would do it again if they feel they are being forced to separate from the UK on what they perceive as the insistence of the Irish Government and the EU Commission. Let's not forget the Ulster Workers' Council strike and how successful it was in the past.

Big differences between then and now.

Back then Unionists had all the key jobs. Nowadays thanks to hiring practices it's not so one sided. And what exactly would unionism be striking for ? And who would benefit ?

Kilroot and Ballylumford power stations would have been key to shutting down the economy. But now both are being phased out because subsides are being removed, and there's more small providers and interconnections, and wind.

And planning permission has been granted for a 1500 MW North-South Interconnector, so in the future a loss of one of the big power stations wouldn't stop everything.

trellheim

Here we go

European Commission Draft Withdrawal Agreement on the withdrawal of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland from the European Union and the European Atomic Energy Community

https://ec.europa.eu/commission/publications/draft-withdrawal-agreement-withdrawal-united-kingdom-great-britain-and-northern-ireland-european-union-and-european-atomic-energy-community_en

Saving you a click, here's the PDF https://ec.europa.eu/commission/sites/beta-political/files/draft_withdrawal_agreement.pdf

Peregrinus

Unpossible wrote: »

Is there a deadline for the agreement or signing of the document being released today? Is this something that the Tories are going to drag out for a few weeks until the last minute?

They’re aiming to have the full withdrawal agreement settled by October, which would leave about 5 months for getting it ratified and signed by all the member states.

Realistically, it needs to be agreed (but not signed) in chunks between now and October. May wants to get the transition period in particular locked in sooner rather than later, and the EU will want to see the section dealing with the border done ASAP.

Leroy42

I see Bojo is claiming that the EU is using the NI border as way to try to keep the UK in the EU.

Surely even he is aware that GFA is signed by the UK government. It is their failure to take account of it that has lead to the issues they are having as the promised a clean break, a break that could couldn't be achieved without breaking said agreement.

Hurrache

Leroy42 wrote: »

Surely even he is aware that GFA is signed by the UK government. It is their failure to take account of it that has lead to the issues they are having as the promised a clean break, a break that could couldn't be achieved without breaking said agreement.

Many seem to look at the GFA as a sort of shake hands type of thing, rather than a legal binding agreement between two states registered with the UN.

listermint

Leroy42 wrote: »

I see Bojo is claiming that the EU is using the NI border as way to try to keep the UK in the EU.

Surely even he is aware that GFA is signed by the UK government. It is their failure to take account of it that has lead to the issues they are having as the promised a clean break, a break that could couldn't be achieved without breaking said agreement.

he is not aware of alot, the man is a notorious blaggard. Built a career on commenting on things he knows nothing about. Being moderately charming and lovelably stupid . He just wants to get his picture in number 10 and he will retire happy.

The fact people are taken in by it is concerning.

Call me Al

So Theresa May has just told the HoC that they are committed to no hard border in Ireland, and to no hard border in the Irish sea for fear of disrupting the constitutional integrity and single market of the UK ...
I'm fascinated to know how they are going to square this circle.
In fact she is talking about enhancing the Union.
Lots of comments and question from DUP Mps..

Eta the more she talks all I see is lots and lots of cake!

Inquitus

Call me Al wrote: »

So Theresa May has just told the HoC that they are committed to no hard border in Ireland, and to no hard border in the Irish sea for fear of disrupting the constitutional integrity and single market of the UK ...
I'm fascinated to know how they are going to square this circle.
In fact she is talking about enhancing the Union.
Lots of comments and question from DUP Mps..

Eta the more she talks all I see is lots and lots of cake!

Its been very obvious to everyone that that circle can't be squared for about a year now, maybe its sunk in at last?

Call me Al

Inquitus wrote: »

Its been very obvious to everyone that that circle can't be squared for about a year now, maybe its sunk in at last?

Yes talking about it for a year, and where are their workable solutions?
We have a letter from BoJo that bizarrely seems to be propose we introduce the technology used to apply the London borough congestion charge to manage our border .
It's frustrating in the extreme.

Water John

Ireland and the EU left UK a good bit of time to digest the meaning of them leaving the EU. This time could have been longer if TM hadn't triggered Art 50.
At this stage, the EU is, since it has the capability, churning out the draft docs that put flesh on the bones. They also realise UK has only waffled and gone nowhere forward in their thinking.
It's now push time.

Sierra Oscar

https://twitter.com/DUPleader/status/968829853490442245

Hard to see how the DUP will continue to support the Government if a East / West border is pursued.

Water John

This is a draft and won't be ironed out, in the short term. Thus the DUP are buying nothing from the Tories, in effect. Lots will happen in the meantime.

Sierra Oscar

https://twitter.com/business/status/968828536197926915

This is what May had to say:

“would, if implemented, undermine the U.K. common market and threaten the constitutional integrity of the U.K. by creating a customs and regulatory border down the Irish Sea.”

“No U.K. prime minister could ever agree to it,” May says, adding that she plans to make that “crystal clear” to the EU.

“We are committed to protecting and enhancing our precious union.”

I reckon anyone who thinks a Conservative led Government (or arguably any UK Government) would agree to proposals which could spell the end of the UK are misguided.

I still reckon we are heading for a hard Brexit.

trellheim

the UK has no written constitution, unless we are counting Magna Carta

Sierra Oscar

trellheim wrote: »

the UK has no written constitution, unless we are counting Magna Carta

It has an uncodified constitution.

Sam Russell

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

It has an uncodified constitution.

Gina Miller is gearing up for some Court action, I believe.

TM is missing the point that there is a way out - stay in the CU and the SM. There is no reason that the UK cannot remain within both - except for the odd red line.

Hurrache

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

https://twitter.com/DUPleader/status/968829853490442245

Hard to see how the DUP will continue to support the Government if a East / West border is pursued.

AF at the end, in the current context I would guess it's for "Aw ****".

Sierra Oscar

Sam Russell wrote: »

Gina Miller is gearing up for some Court action, I believe.

TM is missing the point that there is a way out - stay in the CU and the SM. There is no reason that the UK cannot remain within both - except for the odd red line.

Indeed, the only way out is for them to remain in the Customs Union and Single Market. However Theresa May is too weak to pursue this. An election could clear the air perhaps?

Ellian

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

It has an uncodified constitution.

A good reference guide is An Introduction To The Study Of The Law Of The Constitution by AV Dicey. I'm pretty sure this was the reference the judges used in their ruling in the Gina Miller case.

pixelburp

Realistically, something or someone has to give here, given there are so many conflicting approaches, though I'm struggling to parse the factionalised posturing and nonsense to figure what any inevitable compromise might be... heck, even the concept of any compromise feels beyond realistic expectations here...

Zubeneschamali

May says no UK Governmnet can agree to this, but this is just the agreement from Phase 1 properly written down.

If she wants to have no internal UK border, then the whole UK stays in the SM with NI. Simples.

Nody

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

Indeed, the only way out is for them to remain in the Customs Union and Single Market. However Theresa May is too weak to pursue this. An election could clear the air perhaps?

Tories would never give up power willingly doing another election; they may replace May with a harder Brexiteer waffle government (as DUP would support them) but that's about as far things will go.

My prediction of hard brexit through incompetence as stated months ago still stands.

Sam Russell

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

May says no UK Governmnet can agree to this, but this is just the agreement from Phase 1 properly written down.

If she wants to have no internal UK border, then the whole UK stays in the SM with NI. Simples.

When TM says 'No UK Government can agree to this, .... ' then I think she means: 'No UK Conservative Government (with this motley Brexiteers in it) can agree to this, .... '

She should call a GE and see if another UK Gov can agree to it.

BlitzKrieg

The entire UK position seems to be blaming the EU for the hard border issue, that if the EU wanted it could just ignore the border and no matter how often the WTO or other international bodies says this is not an option there is a constant insistence that the EU is to blame for this issue.

ancapailldorcha

BlitzKrieg wrote: »

The entire UK position seems to be blaming the EU for the hard border issue, that if the EU wanted it could just ignore the border and no matter how often the WTO or other international bodies says this is not an option there is a constant insistence that the EU is to blame for this issue.

An allegory for much of the past few decades to be honest. There's no reason for the tabloids and the Eurosceptics to change tack now when it has worked so well for them.

Leroy42

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

https://twitter.com/DUPleader/status/968829853490442245

Hard to see how the DUP will continue to support the Government if a East / West border is pursued.

You have to agree that it really is an untenable situation for the DUP. There is no way that a sea border could come into effect, which effectively makes NI closer to RoI than UK.

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

Indeed, the only way out is for them to remain in the Customs Union and Single Market. However Theresa May is too weak to pursue this. An election could clear the air perhaps?

The only way, by which I assume you mean other than hard brexit. The Tory plan seems to be, in as much as I can ascertain there being a plan at all, is that leaving is the overall aim. Leaving all aspects of the EU including CU and SM.

The transition period was seen as delaying tactic to allow them to get other things done, like agreeing (but not signing) trade deals. So I don't think anything other than a NI border has ever really been considered (if considered at all).

What the EU is saying now is that either they agree to this NI issue (they won't) or its a hard Brexit. It is not really about changing the UK thinking as such (although of course that would be the best outcome) but rather to force their hand.

Agree to this or its Hard Brexit on 29th March.

Havockk

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Big differences between then and now.

Back then Unionists had all the key jobs. Nowadays thanks to hiring practices it's not so one sided. And what exactly would unionism be striking for ? And who would benefit ?

Kilroot and Ballylumford power stations would have been key to shutting down the economy. But now both are being phased out because subsides are being removed, and there's more small providers and interconnections, and wind.

And planning permission has been granted for a 1500 MW North-South Interconnector, so in the future a loss of one of the big power stations wouldn't stop everything.

Exactly this. Unionism no longer has that privileged position in society where they can wield power as they desired. The DUP tried this kind of general mobilisation in recent times. Most notably Drumcree, which 'almost' boiled over but in which they eventually saw defeat. And secondly in the more recent flag protests (which they did instigate). That, as unpleasant as it was eventually passed but it also highlighted the limits of unionist power today.

Havockk

Sam Russell wrote: »

Gina Miller is gearing up for some Court action, I believe.

TM is missing the point that there is a way out - stay in the CU and the SM. There is no reason that the UK cannot remain within both - except for the odd red line.

I think after today, the only two choices there are is a Hard Brexit or remain in the CU. I'm inclined to lay my money on the Hard variety in light of the change of tone in regards to the border w/ Boris and his 'if' comment as well as Sammy Wilson 'let there be checks.'

Heading into very dangerous territory.

FrancieBrady

Leroy42 wrote: »

You have to agree that it really is an untenable situation for the DUP. There is no way that a sea border could come into effect, which effectively makes NI closer to RoI than UK.



.

That is pandering nonsense really. It makes no difference to anything but pride.
It is a notional separation and no more threatening than the GFA was and remember how these exact people railed against that.

Havockk

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

May says no UK Governmnet can agree to this, but this is just the agreement from Phase 1 properly written down.

If she wants to have no internal UK border, then the whole UK stays in the SM with NI. Simples.

The most worrying development is that it signals to the EU that the UK cannot ever be trusted to keep their word when agreeing anything now.

Leroy42

FrancieBrady wrote: »

That is pandering nonsense really. It makes no difference to anything but pride.
It is a notional separation and no more threatening than the GFA was and remember how these exact people railed against that.

I don't think that is fair, or seeing it from their POV. They see NI as every bit as part of the UK as London and Liverpool.

So they see this are an attempt to get a united Ireland through a backdoor, something they have been staunchly against for ever.

In addition, whilst having a border with NI will effect our trade, having to go through custom checks to sell to UK will effectively remove them from their biggest market. They would be mad to agree to that.

That is not to say that their position is based on anything but ideology

J Mysterio

John Major giving a significant speech now gainst Brexit.

FrancieBrady

Leroy42 wrote: »

I don't think that is fair, or seeing it from their POV. They see NI as every bit as part of the UK as London and Liverpool.

So they see this are an attempt to get a united Ireland through a backdoor, something they have been staunchly against for ever.

In addition, whilst having a border with NI will effect our trade, having to go through custom checks to sell to UK will effectively remove them from their biggest market. They would be mad to agree to that.

That is not to say that their position is based on anything but ideology

Their relationship is with the UK. It is not up to Ireland or the EU to make them feel secure.

There has to be a cut off point where you say what is the least damaging outcome and you go for that.

There is nobody (not even SF I would guess) who would be seeing a sea border as a backdoor to a UI.

Time for the DUP to swallow hard for a change and come down of the idealistic hobby horse.

laugh

J Mysterio wrote: »

John Major giving a significant speech now gainst Brexit.

21 years since he was leader and he's got his head more screwed on than the entire current cabinet.

Thargor

J Mysterio wrote: »

Im frankly amazed at the coverage on Sky. They are hammering the Government, and giving huge coverage to the Irish perspective - basically taking 'the Irish side' in the face of the UK's ineptitude. It's pretty incredible.

John Major absolutely laying into Brexit on Sky now, quoting Fox and Bojo and others practically mocking them, he's gone down through every point from the £350 million bus to the 3 buckets and pointed out how stupid and unworkable they all are.

J Mysterio

Very powerful speech from Major.

Completely deconstructed and destroyed Brexit in a wide ranging and damning speech, particularly laying waste to UK red lines. Covered practically everything. A historical speech, I think. Well done Major.

Hurrache

Thargor wrote: »

John Major absolutely laying into Brexit on Sky now, quoting Fox and Bojo and others practically mocking them, he's gone down through every point from the £350 million bus to the 3 buckets and pointed out how stupid and unworkable they all are.

He's pretty scathing alright, and about time someone senior within the party lays it out for everyone, public included

Over many years, the Conservative party has understood the concerns of business. Not over Brexit, it seems,.....This is not only grand folly. It’s also bad politics.

.....Our self-imposed ‘red lines’ have boxed the government into a corner, they are so tilted to ultra Brexit opinion, even the cabinet cannot agree them, and a majority in both houses of parliament oppose them. If maintained in full, it will be impossible to reach a favourable trade outcome. None of it has yet been properly explained to the British people.

No one voted for higher prices and poorer public services, but that is what they may get,..The emerging evidence suggests Brexit will hurt most those who have least ... This isn’t ‘Project Fear’ revisited, it is ‘Project Know Your History’.

interlocked

Boy, Major is absolutely eviscerating the Govt position and the whole Brexit strategy. He went through Johnson for a short cut.

It is not my purpose to stir controversy, but the truth must be spoken. The ultra Brexiteers have been mistaken – wrong – in nearly all they have said or promised to the British people.

The promises of more hospitals, more schools, lower taxes, more money for transport were electioneering fantasy. The £350 million a week for the NHS was a ridiculous phantom: the reality is if our economy weakens – as is forecast – there will not only be less money for the NHS, but for all our public services.

We were told that nobody was threatening our place in the Single Market. That tune has changed.

We were told that a trade deal with the EU would be easy to get. Wrong again: it was never going to be easy, and we are still not sure what outcome will be achieved.

We were told “Europe can whistle for their money” and we would not pay a penny in exit costs. Wrong again. Europe didn’t even have to purse her lips before we agreed to pay £40 billion to meet legitimate liabilities.

I could go on. But suffice to say that every one of the Brexit promises is – to quote Henry Fielding – “a very wholesome and comfortable doctrine to which (there is) but one objection: namely, that it is not true.”.

People should pause and reflect: if the Brexit leaders were wrong in what they said so enthusiastically before – are they not likely to be wrong in what they say now?

LeinsterDub

interlocked wrote: »

Boy, Major is absolutely eviscerating the Govt position and the whole Brexit strategy. He went through Johnson for a short cut.

It is not my purpose to stir controversy, but the truth must be spoken. The ultra Brexiteers have been mistaken – wrong – in nearly all they have said or promised to the British people.

The promises of more hospitals, more schools, lower taxes, more money for transport were electioneering fantasy. The £350 million a week for the NHS was a ridiculous phantom: the reality is if our economy weakens – as is forecast – there will not only be less money for the NHS, but for all our public services.

We were told that nobody was threatening our place in the Single Market. That tune has changed.

We were told that a trade deal with the EU would be easy to get. Wrong again: it was never going to be easy, and we are still not sure what outcome will be achieved.

We were told “Europe can whistle for their money” and we would not pay a penny in exit costs. Wrong again. Europe didn’t even have to purse her lips before we agreed to pay £40 billion to meet legitimate liabilities.

I could go on. But suffice to say that every one of the Brexit promises is – to quote Henry Fielding – “a very wholesome and comfortable doctrine to which (there is) but one objection: namely, that it is not true.”.

People should pause and reflect: if the Brexit leaders were wrong in what they said so enthusiastically before – are they not likely to be wrong in what they say now?

Cue the Brexit press and traitor headlines.

Major traitor to be at least one

Call me Al

And Jacob Rees Mog now saying that Major is wrong on all counts and ridiculing his political record, and saying it's all cheap shots and propaganda.

Call me Al

Call me Al wrote: »

And Jacob Rees Mog now saying that Major is wrong on all counts and ridiculing his political record, and saying it's all cheap shots and propaganda.

Eta got it in one LeinsterDub. Ripping his record.

Water John

Major won an election against all the odds. May basically lost an election with all the odds.

Leroy42

Call me Al wrote: »

Eta got it in one LeinsterDub. Ripping his record.

As opposed to JRM's outstanding record!

Water John

Major's speech and his answering of questions is a delight from a politician. His put down of Johnson is priceless and memorable;

'Major says he will not comment on Johnson, on the grounds that “I still like to be a serious politician”.'

Skedaddle

To give credit to Major, he's always been an intelligent, well spoken, pragmatic guy and doesn't come from the background of elite snobbery that the current Tories largely do.

Major was also hugely fundamental in laying down the early stages of the Northern Irish peace process and he was able to do that because he can tell it like it is, he's pragmatic and he's not part of that legacy of the class system.

A very different type of Tory and probably one of the most instrumental figures in putting Anglo Irish relations onto a modern, sane and friendly footing too.

I'm sure the hardliners will go absolutely crazy though. Hopefully this is the start of a return to sanity in Britain.