Snow and Ice Warning : Saturday(PM)/Sunday 9th/10th December - SEE MOD NOTE POST #1

fraxinus1

munsterlegend wrote: »

And of course Donegal county council manoeuvres.

My neighbor is well up in the council so yes I do get to hear what’s going on.

Iancar29

Heres more skew t charts. Very much borderline temps
Wicklow 3am

Atlone 3am

Mooooo

grenouille1966 wrote: »

In comparison to 2010 when Dublin and the East coast got hammered for weeks by heavy snowfall and polar winds, this is going a bit far I think.

I think this will basically be a major event for high ground in the Midlands and East of the ciuntry

2010 effected the whole country in cork here west of the city 3 weeks of bollixing trying to work in it, one morning the milk in the bulk tank was reading 2 degrees a whole 16 degrees warmer the the outside air temp

JanuarySnowstor

06z run further south again. Munst er looks more at risk now than anywhere else

gimpotronitus

So a few hours out and no-one, professional/amateur, can tell us if its going to snow in the major population centre of the country?

Forecasting = pseudo-science

Gaoth Laidir

If the precip does shift further south then the snow potential drops with the shallower cold layer. It's on a knife edge now between full-blown heavy snow and full-blown cold rain. This just translates to a lowering or raising of the snowline, but anyone above 100 metres through the centre of the country should be keeping an eye out.

munsterlegend

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

If the precip does shift further south then the snow potential drops with the shallower cold layer. It's on a knife edge now between full-blown heavy snow and full-blown cold rain. This just translates to a lowering or raising of the snowline, but anyone above 100 metres through the centre of the country should be keeping an eye out.

So no matter what happens Munster won't get snow except on high ground! Typical!!

pauldry

Yeah i think met eireann will downgrade their forecast to

Outbreaks of rain sleet and snow with up to 8cm especially on high ground though some accumulations at lower levels too

Gaoth Laidir

munsterlegend wrote: »

So no matter what happens Munster won't get snow except on high ground! Typical!!

Today's 12Z Valentia and Castor Bay soundings will be important to see what kind of depth of cold layer we have in place. It would be great to have a weather balloon launch from somewhere like Athlone too..

Rock Lesnar

Slashermcguirk wrote: »

I would stick closer to Irish forecasts, BBC focus is on the UK.

Well i find the bbc very reliable, their rainfall charts cover both countries, not a knock on ME, i have no problem with their forecasts, but experience tells me i'll stick to what the bbc predicts.

RobertKK

twinkletoes wrote: »

Where does the rain end and snow start 2moro? Or is that THE question? In north kilkenny here..on high ground.

Same as myself.

We will get a lot of snow on the high ground of north Kilkenny.

Yr.no for my location predicting 34.7mm and for it to be snow.

Slashermcguirk

Met eureann website updated 30 minutes ago and they are giving large accumulations of snow for Connaught, midlands and most of Leinster with temps tonight of -1 to -5, coldest in the east.

Hope they are right but we know they can be very hit and miss

KingdomRushed

I hate to say it but I’m also leaning toward the doom and gloom that widespread snowfall now likely to be limited. Too messy. Only HIRLAM holding on for big disruptive event in my opinion.

Larbre34

gimpotronitus wrote: »

So a few hours out and no-one, professional/amateur, can tell us if its going to snow in the major population centre of the country?

Forecasting = pseudo-science

Ignorant comment. Its churlish not to recognise Ireland is marginal for all snow potential. We have a maritime climate not a continental one

Met Éireann and the educated amateurs here are rightly pointing out the high liklihood of heavy snow and where it will potentially fall, but it is on a knife edge, so if it rains across lower levels, or the precip doesnt make it as far north, big deal, precautions been taken.

squarecircles

I wonder When will met eireann downgrade their forecast ...shame it has all gone down the tubes so quickly.

Gerry Murphy peeks out of broom closet.*

pauldry

https://youtu.be/_QNYj61wMRI

munsterlegend

squarecircles wrote: »

I wonder When will met eireann downgrade their forecast ...shame it has all gone down the tubes so quickly.

A bit over the top?!!! it's a nowcast from
here on in.

RobertKK

141_Oscar_Mike wrote: »

Was always jealous of you folk as a kid. Still am

lol yeah days off school due to snow and ice...

In March 2010. We had that blizzard, it was really bad. Snow blowing everywhere and to around 3ft in places and ye only got cold rain on the city...that would be very disappointing.

Billcarson

squarecircles wrote: »

I wonder When will met eireann downgrade their forecast ...shame it has all gone down the tubes so quickly.

???? Gone down the tubes?? No one can say what will happen it's going to be a nowcast job anyway.

pistolpetes11

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

If the precip does shift further south then the snow potential drops with the shallower cold layer. It's on a knife edge now between full-blown heavy snow and full-blown cold rain. This just translates to a lowering or raising of the snowline, but anyone above 100 metres through the centre of the country should be keeping an eye out.

Typical here in Newbridge I’m at 92 asl !!! Although I’m just at the back of the Curragh which seems to be a real cold haven , a fair whack of yesterday’s snow hung on and is all frosted over this morning

Gaoth Laidir

I think it's time to split this into two threads; a technical discussion and a chat/trolling one.

Whatever it falls as, a lot of water is going to fall over the next 48 hours. With snow melting over the next few days it could lead to bad flooding in places like Clonmel, etc


The ECM actually has a lot more accumulated snow (qpf) than any other model. 20-30 mm in general, which would give about 10-15 cm total falls, going on a 5:1 ratio. High ground is going to get a pasting, that's for sure. Sea level, not so.

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2017120900/ireland/snow-accumulated/20171211-0000z.html

pistolpetes11

I think if it was the gfs showing great snow depths and lots of snow rather than the ECM then I would be worried , hoping the trusty ecm doesn’t let me down now ��

Cantona's Collars

Weathercheck wrote: »

EURO4 is very far south with precip....

Maybe somebody already posted this so apologies in advance.

Maybe, just maybe something for Wexford other than cold rain.

secman

Cantona's Collars wrote: »

Maybe, just maybe something for Wexford other than cold rain.

Just watched a BBC forecast and they had wexford in the snowline.

pauldry

Bad news its raining in Sligo

Good news its only 2c

km79

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

I think it's time to split this into two threads; a technical discussion and a chat/trolling one.

Whatever it falls as, a lot of water is going to fall over the next 48 hours. With snow melting over the next few days it could lead to bad flooding in places like Clonmel, etc


The ECM actually has a lot more accumulated snow (qpf) than any other model. 20-30 mm in general, which would give about 10-15 cm total falls, going on a 5:1 ratio. High ground is going to get a pasting, that's for sure. Sea level, not so.

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2017120900/ireland/snow-accumulated/20171211-0000z.html

Clonmel........HE won't be happy !

Oops69

gimpotronitus wrote: »

So a few hours out and no-one, professional/amateur, can tell us if its going to snow in the major population centre of the country?

Forecasting = pseudo-science

And quantum theory and Heisenberg’s
Principle as well ?,no , the uncertainty proves forecasting IS a science

pistolpetes11

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

I think it's time to split this into two threads; a technical discussion and a chat/trolling one.

Whatever it falls as, a lot of water is going to fall over the next 48 hours. With snow melting over the next few days it could lead to bad flooding in places like Clonmel, etc


The ECM actually has a lot more accumulated snow (qpf) than any other model. 20-30 mm in general, which would give about 10-15 cm total falls, going on a 5:1 ratio. High ground is going to get a pasting, that's for sure. Sea level, not so.

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2017120900/ireland/snow-accumulated/20171211-0000z.html

Sounds like a good idea

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=105506787#post105506787

Neddyusa

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

I think it's time to split this into two threads; a technical discussion and a chat/trolling one.

Whatever it falls as, a lot of water is going to fall over the next 48 hours. With snow melting over the next few days it could lead to bad flooding in places like Clonmel, etc


The ECM actually has a lot more accumulated snow (qpf) than any other model. 20-30 mm in general, which would give about 10-15 cm total falls, going on a 5:1 ratio. High ground is going to get a pasting, that's for sure. Sea level, not so.

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2017120900/ireland/snow-accumulated/20171211-0000z.html

https://touch.boards.ie/thread/2057818136/1/#post105506782

Predi tion thread here for the likes of yourself to put a lying snow forecast figure on it GL!

Mods feel free to merge this with another thread if required...or to add a poll?

pistolpetes11

Neddyusa wrote: »

https://touch.boards.ie/thread/2057818136/1/#post105506782

Predi tion thread here for the likes of yourself to put a lying snow forecast figure on it GL!

Mods feel free to merge this with another thread if required...or to add a poll?

Yep we will keep it in here , because if / when the snow comes this forum will get very busy , hope you don't mind ?