Snow and Ice Warning : Saturday(PM)/Sunday 9th/10th December - SEE MOD NOTE POST #1

server down

This could be a washout but it could (even if mich more marginal) be somethsing like 1982. Anyway far more interesting than north westerlies to me.

Neddyusa

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

Yep we will keep it in here , because if / when the snow comes this forum will get very busy , hope you don't mind ?

I don't mind - but my post RE predictions at ME stations has been deleted??

grenouille1966

server down wrote: »

This could be a washout but it could (even if mich more marginal) be somethsing like 1982. Anyway far more interesting than north westerlies to me.

Met Eireann currently is currently displaying the following temperatures for these counties.

Dublin - 1 degree

Kerry - 5 degrees

Kildare - 2

Wexford - 2

Galway - 3

Cork - 2

Coldest being Dublin so great chance for snow tonight especially away from the coast.

Mantis Toboggan

I'd trust YR over met eireann tbh. YR only predicting sleet some snow but mostly rain in Dublin. No snow to lodge. Let's see who's right.

George Sunsnow

Current temp in Arklow is 1.4c
Dew point -1c and cloudy

That’s going to be an impressively cold day
However when winds pick up off the Irish Sea,dew points, wet bulbs and air temps will rise meaning rain on the coast and with a strong wind up to 10 or 15km’s inland
The whole event still has the potential to be an entire rain event too depending on where the low goes

Larbre34

Are we close enough to estimate the time of arrival of the front for various landmark locations? Obviously hoping for late in the day here in Dublin to maximise the chances

kilkenny31

Hi Guys,

Following this thread with interest. Are we likely to see any snow in South Kilkenny?
I've just been thinking that we have pretty much seen no snow here since 2010. That is very unusual. I defiantly remember more snow when i was younger and seeing some sort of snow most winters.

Mantis Toboggan

Larbre34 wrote: »

Are we close enough to estimate the time of arrival of the front for various landmark locations? Obviously hoping for late in the day here in Dublin to maximise the chances

I make it around midnight for Dublin.

pistolpetes11

Neddyusa wrote: »

I don't mind - but my post RE predictions at ME stations has been deleted??

Back up and running there now

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2057818136

ninebeanrows

sryanbruen

Donegal Storm wrote: »

Late February to early April 2013 was very cold with air frosts almost every night, can't recall any exceptionally cold nights though. Early Feb 2012 had a brief easterly and from a quick look the lowest I can find is -6.3C at Mullingar on 02/03/12, I'm sure Sryan will have a definitive answer

Cold temps Sunday night depend on there being deep and widespread snow cover so no guarantee yet it'll be that cold or where any cold temps will be

February 2013 got off to a rather cool and unsettled start bringing some snow showers to places on a northerly air stream. The snow showers were few and far between though so weren't anything exciting, unless you were living in Scotland. Temperatures weren't particularly low though around 4 to 7c mainly during the day. Northern blocking was building at the same time of this period over Greenland - February had the most negative AO index average for Winter 2012/13 bar March. The lowest minimum of this period was -3.2c at Thomastown. It became somewhat milder in the second week of the month as the winds started to go more to a westerly and southwesterly. In this regime, it was very damp with some rain from time to time and not a lot of sunshine. A slider low took place on the 10th (which was also a Sunday 10th like December 2017 here :cool:.... funny coincidence) but it brought heavy rain to Ireland unfortunately due to maximums mainly being in the high single figures widely and some getting into double figures whilst England got snowed under. Minimums stayed above freezing during this period. The last low pushed through on the 13th and into Valentine's Day. High pressure pushed up from the south on the 15th bringing a mild but dry weekend. As the days went on, this high gradually went up to Scandinavia and the winds became an easterly by the 19th. This easterly wasn't particularly cold 'til the 22nd when maximums started to struggle to get above freezing in fog and mist. Snow showers pushed into the east of the country on the 23rd and 24th. These were very light. Sunshine was variable through the period and Belmullet ended on its sunniest February on record due to having an unusual amount of sunshine during this easterly. Minimums got down to -7.4c on the 25th in clear skies (the 25th was a very sunny day widely). The 15th February to 5th March was a very long dry period with little variation.

The first few days of March continued where February left off with more dry conditions. Mostly cloudy and cool conditions in no particular wind direction - winds were very slack. -5.0c was recorded at Warrenstown on the 2nd. Low pressure wreaked havoc from the south on the 6th and brought heavy rain to places - with the east especially getting a good dose. Parts of Dublin had up to 40mm by the 9th. It was milder and very overcast with this rain and the winds veered to a southeasterly before going back to an easterly later. This change took place on the 10th with winds starting to become very strong and bitter cold air pushing in from the east. This brought maximums of only 1-3c widely and some parts of England could not get above -1c all day on the 11th. The Channel Islands had blizzards of up to 20cm of snow. The lowest maximum in Ireland was 0.8c at Mount Russell on the 11th. This is crazy for March! The lowest minimum was -7.4c on the 12th at Markree, the lowest March minimum since 2006. The winds started to turn to a northerly mid-week before a westerly on the 15th as a low pushed in. However, this low then stalled right over the top of the British Isles and the winds veered back to an easterly bringing snow showers and more cold temperatures. Castleconnell got down to -4.6c on the 20th. I remember me receiving a huge dusting of snow on the 19th and 20th March. Me and my friends were like, how is this Spring? :P

A band of heavy rain began to push up from the southwest on the 21st. This brought a lot of heavy rain to places including a 98.9mm daily rainfall at Glenmacnass, Co. Wicklow. Temperatures were too mild for any blizzards or snow across the Republic of Ireland unless you were on a very high altitude around 4-12c. Northern Ireland got snowed under though and this continued into the 22nd bringing flooding in parts. Eventually on the 23rd, the low fizzled out and the easterlies reigned supreme once again. This easterly brought plenty of snow showers through the last week of March. This was the scene in Dublin on March 26th:



'Twas the coldest Easter on record for the UK with Braemar, Scotland getting down to -12.5c on the 31st, whilst the coldest Easter for Ireland since April 1986. Parts of Dublin including myself and Dublin Airport did not reach a maximum of 10c or above all month. It wasn't until April 7th that things started to become a bit milder as low pressure approached from the south. However, the rest of the Spring was still significantly colder than average, just not to the extremes of March 2013.

February 2012 had some cold and sunny days at first. -6.3c was the low for this at Mullingar on the 2nd. This was a very brief incursion of an easterly. Ireland then became one of the few exceptions of the whole of Europe. Ireland was very mild during much of February whilst continental Europe and parts of the UK were in deep Winter under a big freeze. Read here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Early_2012_European_cold_wave

Of course, Winter made its return in early April 2012 then :pac: with Scotland receiving some heavy snow, after a very warm March.

Information is originally sourced from Met Éireann.

ninebeanrows

If you're in need of a laugh...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YlrEOQ_GCCg

tkd93

So is Dublin going to be hit bad?. I am about to start decorating and might not scoff all the roses if there is a chance of being snowed in.

ninebeanrows

tkd93 wrote: »

So is Dublin going to be hit bad?. I am about to start decorating and might not scoff all the roses if there is a chance of being snowed in.

For Dublin it is all about precip intensity, 5 dbz could be the difference between rain and snow for many.

It really is a nowcast.

Oneiric 3

Just got this warning on my phone:




Colour me unconvinced.

adam240610

Where do people get these 00z forecasts etc?

snowstorm445

A shame really as the bulk of the snow/rain will be gone by tomorrow pm so that areas that would be cold enough for snow at night wont see it. If only this event took place about 12hrs later.

Although the GFS does keep some wintry precipitation until late in the evening in some parts of the country.

sryanbruen

adam240610 wrote: »

Where do people get these 00z forecasts etc?

I primarily use Meteociel.fr and Wetterzentrale.de

Oneiric 3

adam240610 wrote: »

Where do people get these 00z forecasts etc?

One of the best sites for charts out there.

http://wxcharts.eu/?model=gfs&region=europe&chart=overview&run=06&step=003&plottype=10&lat=51.500&lon=-0.250&skewtstep=0

Gaoth Laidir

www.weather.us has the best overall range of model parameters, especially for the ECM.

lolie

This is as far north as the precip goes on the Aperge model before it goes back South.
If that's the case i might not see either snow or rain.

ninebeanrows

Significant trend now to pull this precip away quite quickly tomorrow...

Also latest EURO4 isnt very optimistic for snowfall for many.

ninebeanrows

the Euro4 develops a severe mesoscale low just off Rosslare

DominoDub

km79

Weathercheck wrote: »

Significant trend now to pull this precip away quite quickly tomorrow...

Also latest EURO4 isnt very optimistic for snowfall for many.

Best of both worlds so
But of snow but not too much disruption !

screamer

So basically no one has a clue.... The models don't agree, we don't know how far the snowline will extend... How much snow there might be....nothing really and it's tonight? That's me out I'll just look out the window to know what the weather's doing.

ninebeanrows

There is less than 20% risk of lying snow for the bulk of Dublin away from hilly areas in the south and perhaps the farthest western suburbs.

eastmayo

Iam right beside knock airport...should be snow here anyway....as long as it gets this far north.

Snowbiee21

I expect a few downgrade from met come lunch time

Donegal Storm

sryanbruen wrote: »

February 2013 got off to a rather cool and unsettled start bringing some snow showers to places on a northerly air stream. The snow showers were few and far between though so weren't anything exciting, unless you were living in Scotland. Temperatures weren't particularly low though around 4 to 7c mainly during the day. Northern blocking was building at the same time of this period over Greenland - February had the most negative AO index average for Winter 2012/13 bar March. The lowest minimum of this period was -3.2c at Thomastown. It became somewhat milder in the second week of the month as the winds started to go more to a westerly and southwesterly. In this regime, it was very damp with some rain from time to time and not a lot of sunshine. A slider low took place on the 10th (which was also a Sunday 10th like December 2017 here :cool:.... funny coincidence) but it brought heavy rain to Ireland unfortunately due to maximums mainly being in the high single figures widely and some getting into double figures whilst England got snowed under. Minimums stayed above freezing during this period. The last low pushed through on the 13th and into Valentine's Day. High pressure pushed up from the south on the 15th bringing a mild but dry weekend. As the days went on, this high gradually went up to Scandinavia and the winds became an easterly by the 19th. This easterly wasn't particularly cold 'til the 22nd when maximums started to struggle to get above freezing in fog and mist. Snow showers pushed into the east of the country on the 23rd and 24th. These were very light. Sunshine was variable through the period and Belmullet ended on its sunniest February on record due to having an unusual amount of sunshine during this easterly. Minimums got down to -7.4c on the 25th in clear skies (the 25th was a very sunny day widely). The 15th February to 5th March was a very long dry period with little variation.

The first few days of March continued where February left off with more dry conditions. Mostly cloudy and cool conditions in no particular wind direction - winds were very slack. -5.0c was recorded at Warrenstown on the 2nd. Low pressure wreaked havoc from the south on the 6th and brought heavy rain to places - with the east especially getting a good dose. Parts of Dublin had up to 40mm by the 9th. It was milder and very overcast with this rain and the winds veered to a southeasterly before going back to an easterly later. This change took place on the 10th with winds starting to become very strong and bitter cold air pushing in from the east. This brought maximums of only 1-3c widely and some parts of England could not get above -1c all day on the 11th. The Channel Islands had blizzards of up to 20cm of snow. The lowest maximum in Ireland was 0.8c at Mount Russell on the 11th. This is crazy for March! The lowest minimum was -7.4c on the 12th at Markree, the lowest March minimum since 2006. The winds started to turn to a northerly mid-week before a westerly on the 15th as a low pushed in. However, this low then stalled right over the top of the British Isles and the winds veered back to an easterly bringing snow showers and more cold temperatures. Castleconnell got down to -4.6c on the 20th. I remember me receiving a huge dusting of snow on the 19th and 20th March. Me and my friends were like, how is this Spring? :P

A band of heavy rain began to push up from the southwest on the 21st. This brought a lot of heavy rain to places including a 98.9mm daily rainfall at Glenmacnass, Co. Wicklow. Temperatures were too mild for any blizzards or snow across the Republic of Ireland unless you were on a very high altitude around 4-12c. Northern Ireland got snowed under though and this continued into the 22nd bringing flooding in parts. Eventually on the 23rd, the low fizzled out and the easterlies reigned supreme once again. This easterly brought plenty of snow showers through the last week of March. This was the scene in Dublin on March 26th:

'Twas the coldest Easter on record for the UK with Braemar, Scotland getting down to -12.5c on the 31st, whilst the coldest Easter for Ireland since April 1986. Parts of Dublin including myself and Dublin Airport did not reach a maximum of 10c or above all month. It wasn't until April 7th that things started to become a bit milder as low pressure approached from the south. However, the rest of the Spring was still significantly colder than average, just not to the extremes of March 2013.

February 2012 had some cold and sunny days at first. -6.3c was the low for this at Mullingar on the 2nd. This was a very brief incursion of an easterly. Ireland then became one of the few exceptions of the whole of Europe. Ireland was very mild during much of February whilst continental Europe and parts of the UK were in deep Winter under a big freeze. Read here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Early_2012_European_cold_wave

Of course, Winter made its return in early April 2012 then :pac: with Scotland receiving some heavy snow, after a very warm March.

Information is originally sourced from Met Éireann.

Thanks for that, I drove from Donegal to Belfast the morning after that blizzard in March, roads were chaos but I had a flight to catch! Lots of snow through the Glenshane Pass, the Pondarosa pub at the top was totally encased in snow. Some of the deepest snow I've ever seen around higher parts of Belfast, the motorway was closed so we had to divert through backroads which oddly enough they prioritised clearing ahead of the M2

Was in London for the following week which was bitterly cold in a strong easterly, temp barely got above 0C all week which was crazy for the last week of March into April. Back in Belfast in early April and the snow still hasn't melted.