Snow and Ice Warning : Saturday(PM)/Sunday 9th/10th December - SEE MOD NOTE POST #1

munsterlegend

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

For Cork

The 18z has livened up the front as it returns south and clears away late Sunday night. I see at least 4/5 hours of snow falling for us. In fact as we won't have the onshore wind problem that Dublin will I actually see us doing very well out of this.
Definitely a rain to snow event though and our chance is very late Sunday.

Is a red warning possible for the Midlands. .....maybe!

I see more rain! Its even raining here this evening. The midlands and north will do well to get snow never mind us cork folk.

MJohnston

KingdomRushed wrote: »

Is this possible? HIRLAM showing 40+ cms for Meath/Westmeath border?

A lot of things are possible. The HIRLAM certainly seems to be the most bullish on the amount of snow we're going to get.

ARPEGE 18z will probably provide an alternative view with very little snow.

JanuarySnowstor

munsterlegend wrote: »

I see more rain! Its even raining here this evening. The midlands and north will do well to get snow never mind us cork folk.

I don't agree
Time will tell

Rebelbrowser

munsterlegend wrote: »

I see more rain! Its even raining here this evening. The midlands and north will do well to get snow never mind us cork folk.

nah, Im with January snowstorm. after a horrible 24 hours of rain from 6pm sat to 6pm sun comes the compensation of sneachta ban milis. that's the plan anyway. we get the precipitation second time around when temps are coldest. you keep up your being negative so as not to jinx things though!

MJohnston

Should be partly in range of the WRF NMM on this run too. Did anyone do any qualitative analysis on the model forecasts at 48 hours for last night compared to reality?

KingdomRushed

HIRLAM for me has always proven more accurate than this model when it comes to timings of fronts. Therefore I’m more inclined to go with the HIRLAM solution.

lolie wrote: »

The Arome model is not pretty viewing

Donegal Storm

KingdomRushed wrote: »

Is this possible? HIRLAM showing 40+ cms for Meath/Westmeath border?

I'd take that!

To show the uncertainty though, here's the ICON for the same time, heavy snow far further north and only a cm or two here in N Kildare



Even that's very optimistic I'd say but we'll have a clearer picture this time tomorrow hopefully

George Sunsnow

fraxinus1 wrote: »

Notice how quiet it has become in here? Most folk now accept that apart from high ground in midlands and mud Ulster, Sunday will be a non event regarding snowfall. It’s simply to mild.

My apologies I’ve been watching the brilliant funny guardians of the galaxy 2 with ear popping surround sound on USA Netflix with a few icy cold Heineken
I shallz write another novel soon
Promise

munsterlegend

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

nah, Im with January snowstorm. after a horrible 24 hours of rain from 6pm sat to 6pm sun comes the compensation of sneachta ban milis. that's the plan anyway. we get the precipitation second time around when temps are coldest. you keep up your being negative so as not to jinx things though!

I used be positive but that never worked!

irish1967

Graphics on ME RTE forecasts show no precipitation hitting Donegal Sat night / Sunday. Am I reading that correctly ??? Since Donegal is under Status Orange Snow /Ice warning is it only ice for here. Donegal Town based.

PauloMN

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

I still have my snow shovel and salt that I purchased after 2010 ,

Same here, I got mine when they got them back in stock after the rush, just as the snow melted away! Still has the sticker on, hopefully it will get some use soon!

snowstorm445

GFS snow depth chart for just after midnight on Monday.



West and Midlands doing well out of this it seems!

Donegal Storm

irish1967 wrote: »

Graphics on ME RTE forecasts show no precipitation hitting Donegal Sat night / Sunday. Am I reading that correctly ??? Since Donegal is under Status Orange Snow /Ice warning is it only ice for here. Donegal Town based.

See my post above, lots of uncertainty as to how far north the front get before getting pushed back south. Some models showing Donegal as the best place to be for snow, others showing it totally dry, take your pick!

irish1967

I remember making and posting this ... can't believe it was 7 years ago. Let's hope I get to post another one soon.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3sA4EnDjWSs

JCX BXC

Every release is bringing the snow a little bit further out the Clare peninsula, will be skeptically watching.

MJohnston

snowstorm445 wrote: »

GFS snow accumulation chart.

West and Midlands doing well out of this it seems!

I'm going to be pedantic (sorry!) because I think that GFS chart actually shows "snow depths", which would be something different from what people understand when they hear "accumulation" for precipitation. Accumulation seems generally to be more about the total depth of precip that fell over a particular timeframe, whereas the snow depth chart is just showing how deep the snow will be at that particular point in time.

I know, I did say I was being pedantic, but there could be a fair difference between those two values!

BLIZZARD7

United road wrote: »

Do you have any opinion on snow line Blizzard, when you mention dublin/wicklow high ground, just how high? say a line from sandyford , rathfarnham up? Taking in stepaside and ticknock!
(Apologies if i have this wrong, but seem to recall this as being your neck of the woods)

It's really too early to call right now, although I'm thinking anywhere above 100m will end up with something of note, above 200m I think will have snow all the way through.
- I'm closer to Dundrum/Goatstown. Stepaside and ticknock up should end up doing very well but as I said, too early to know. Those areas could end up with cold rain or huge snowfall, we should know more by tomorrow evening- very much knife edge though. Where I am I'm expecting a mixed bag with some light accumulation at times, based on the current charts anyway.

pauldry

Have meteociel temp map open as a full time tab from now till Monday

-1c is lowest in Ireland

-7c in Scotland

Maybe pt rosee (dew point) is map i should be looking at or the DAM

My God weather is complicated if you delve deep into it and snow forecasting for Ireland is as complicated as it possibly gets especially as Saturday night it could be snowing in one location but 1km away nothing and 1km further South raining.

How do you even pretend to be able to know how to predict that

Snow forecasts are nowcasts ....like severe storms and very heavy rain events.

But Met Eireann have been spot on recently and theyr going for 4 to 8cm of snow so Id say its quite likely some location in Ireland will see this amount of snow.

The middle third and some of inland North look particularly favoured for me

arctictree

I wonder is there also a chance of freezing rain? I remember Xmas day a few years back. It was 0.5c all day and pissing rain from a warm front hitting cold air. The road was like an ice rink. Can't remember the exact year.

Kermit.de.frog

People should be taking this seriously and making preparations - particularly in the midlands and north Connaught. This will be disruptive.

Pop in to your elderly neighbors, see if they could use some help.

JCX BXC

Knock Airport 11pm TAF already in with the snow,

BECMG 0920/0923 10012KT 3000 -SN SCT003 BKN008
TEMPO 0923/0924 1200 SN OVC002

Basically forecasting snow from the get-go at 8pm tomorrow night.

Could be some festive scenes on Sunday in Knock! Wasn't expecting snow in this forecast!

MJohnston

arctictree wrote: »

I wonder is there also a chance of freezing rain? I remember Xmas day a few years back. It was 0.5c all day and pissing rain from a warm front hitting cold air. The road was like an ice rink. Can't remember the exact year.

It's showing up in some of the charts actually - it's usually shown as red hatched lines on the precip charts.

Kermit.de.frog

JCX BXC wrote: »

Knock Airport 11pm TAF already in with the snow,

BECMG 0920/0923 10012KT 3000 -SN SCT003 BKN008
TEMPO 0923/0924 1200 SN OVC002

Basically forecasting snow from the get-go at 8pm tomorrow night.

Could be some festive scenes on Sunday in Knock! Wasn't expecting snow in this forecast!

PukkaStukka

JCX BXC wrote: »

Knock Airport 11pm TAF already in with the snow,

BECMG 0920/0923 10012KT 3000 -SN SCT003 BKN008
TEMPO 0923/0924 1200 SN OVC002

Basically forecasting snow from the get-go at 8pm tomorrow night.

Could be some festive scenes on Sunday in Knock! Wasn't expecting snow in this forecast!

Any idea what the TAF for Dublin says?

MJohnston

I have a feeling this 18z WRM chart might be very close to what we see:



Will have to wait until the 0z for further timeframes from that model though.

JCX BXC

PukkaStukka wrote: »

Any idea what the TAF for Dublin says?

No mention of Precipitation.

TAF is only valid for 24hrs, wouldn't have expected anything in it.

Iancar29

WRF / HIRLAM comparison by 7am Sunday.

I think the WRF has a better resolution on it.

PukkaStukka

All of what I've seen thus far suggests I'm in for a wet day on Sunday.

Danno

Hooks Golf Handicap wrote: »

I'm hoping for a white gold around Carlow but doubting it more and more.

We had a few rain showers this evening after dark and if it wasn't cold enough then it's hard to see it cold enough on Sunday.
Also the dreaded word thaw rears its head even if we get a big fall.
The sadness of the drip drips, the roads clearing, green grass reappearing and finally the snowman goes dark grey and withers.

Interesting you say that - I left Tullamore close to 5.30pm and at (dashboard thermometer) it was 2.0c. Onto Portlaoise and it was 3.0c and sleet. Then in Abbeyleix it snowed at 2.5c.

In summary, it's all about the air up there!

Jobs OXO

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

People should be taking this seriously and making preparations - particularly in the midlands and north Connaught. This will be disruptive.

Pop in to your elderly neighbors, see if they could use some help.

I'm in Dublin. Could the electric and pipes be impacted ?

HankSchrader

Long time lurker here. I'm in Westmeath, North of Athlone. We had rain here this evening meanwhile there was still snow in Mullingar.
Weather station was reading 2c. Anyway I'm hoping it's not the same come Sunday as a few miles up the road can be all the difference....have put new batteries in my weather station...just incase...

Danno

Ninthlife wrote: »

Ok..serious question. Wife is due this weekend and will be attending Portlaoise should baby wish to arrive on time. Driving from Kildare so how much snow within the general area may fall?

I need to plan just incase!!!!

If there's a hint of a hurler or even a daycent footballer - you need not worry. Laois will look after mother and baby! We'll send the rescue chopper up!

200motels

Looking at the forecast for here on Saturday into Sunday I think all we’ll have is rain I’m afraid.

Danno

MJohnston wrote: »

Does GFS not have a snow accumulation chart at all?

Knock your socks off: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/topkarten.php?map=20&model=gfs&var=25&time=0&run=18&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3

Donegal Storm

MJohnston wrote: »

I have a feeling this 18z WRM chart might be very close to what we see:

Will have to wait until the 0z for further timeframes from that model though.

I'd expect mainly sleet across much of that area at that time, freezing level is 100-250m across the midlands for most of the day going by GFS soundings. My best guess would be sleet/snow to start with, changing to rain then back to sleet and snow later on. The northern flank will likely be snow throughout but we're still not even close to pegging down where that will be!

Right on a knife-edge as always in this country, a degree or two either way could make all the difference

Kermit.de.frog

Even if Dubs are thwarted in the first attack by the breeze off the sea chances are it turns to snow anyway in to Sunday evening. Win, win.

@JOBS OXO, Not in Dublin, for now...but keep an eye on here for updates.

Someone mention freezing rain as a hazard...yes!

Going to get hit by all sorts.

Bring on the full fury of mother nature I say!

MJohnston

Danno wrote: »

Knock your socks off: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/topkarten.php?map=20&model=gfs&var=25&time=0&run=18&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3

Heh, that's snow-depth, I was being pedantic about that a bit up-thread

Dank Janniels

Sorry if this was already answered but whts the situation in yer opinion for Galway city +county? Busy schedule tomoro in city but thinking of bus home if its gona be shoyt out tomoro night. Could stay night in city but wont be home til moday if sunday is bad too!!

highdef

Jobs OXO wrote: »

I'm in Dublin. Could the electric and pipes be impacted ?

HIGHLY unlikely

pauldry

Met Eireann has also mentioned -8c in their latest forecasr

2.1c in Sligo now and getting calmer

Calm will bring snowpfully

squarecircles

-8 or possibly lower Sunday night, incredibly cold by Irish standards,coldest since 2010???

Kermit.de.frog

squarecircles wrote: »

-8 or possibly lower Sunday night, incredibly cold by Irish standards,coldest since 2010???

That will be the case over areas where snow is lying. I could well see temperatures even colder than that locally...

I'd say we might break the coldest since 2010.

pistolpetes11

pauldry wrote: »

Met Eireann has also mentioned -8c in their latest forecasr

2.1c in Sligo now and getting calmer

Calm will bring snowpfully

-1.1 in Newbridge

Pretzill

Some talk of 2010. But that was an arctic
snap - it was so cold for so long - hit 20 below!!- it was a relief when the thaw set in (and I'm a snow lover)

2009 was another white Christmas up here, but it was lovely snowfall, soft and not freezing or icy.

For both those events it was a cold late November - with lots of icy mornings. We had only a couple of those this year - It will be lovely to get a bit of lying snow come Sunday morning but I can't see it remaining unless we are in for a prolonged cold snap? Are we? We have been having temperate weather for so many winters now.

Xenji

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

That will be the case over areas where snow is lying. I could well see temperatures even colder than that locally...

I'd say we might break the coldest since 2010.

Not going to happen, unless it drops down to -17.5C which was recorded in Straide, Mayo in 2010 or for those who split hairs Castlederg who recorded -18.7C.

Kermit.de.frog

Xenji wrote: »

Not going to happen, unless it drops down to -17.5C which it will not since Straide 2010 or for those who split hairs Castlederg who recorded -18.7C

Record since 2010

Not breaking a record set in 2010...

Gaoth Laidir

arctictree wrote: »

I wonder is there also a chance of freezing rain? I remember Xmas day a few years back. It was 0.5c all day and pissing rain from a warm front hitting cold air. The road was like an ice rink. Can't remember the exact year.

Still haven't looked at any charts or soundings but I'm thinking the same. Freezing rain is a strong possibility and I'm sure one that will need attention. It's more likely further south, where the upper warm front is above zero.

Xenji

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Record since 2010

Not breaking a record set in 2010...

Ah the record was set in 2010, why say break, that would imply colder than 2010, but I get what your saying it would be the coldest since then.

Donegal Storm

Late February to early April 2013 was very cold with air frosts almost every night, can't recall any exceptionally cold nights though. Early Feb 2012 had a brief easterly and from a quick look the lowest I can find is -6.3C at Mullingar on 02/03/12, I'm sure Sryan will have a definitive answer

Cold temps Sunday night depend on there being deep and widespread snow cover so no guarantee yet it'll be that cold or where any cold temps will be

snowstreams

It got very cold here in Athenry last November. We ended up getting a burst pipe in the attic. Think it was below -5 for a few nights.