Snow and Ice Warning : Saturday(PM)/Sunday 9th/10th December - SEE MOD NOTE POST #1

BLIZZARD7

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

All comes down to wind strength for the coast. The lighter the wind, the better for us.

Real action will be inland.

Yeah in fairness even slack winds would probably do us a huge favour, all to play for still anyway...

United road

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

This has the potential to be an absolutely epic event, my gut feeling is Dublin will experience mixed precip with limited accumulations. I do think the Midlands and high ground in wicklow/Dublin will see copious amounts of snow though, wouldn't be surprised to see 30cm plus in some areas- @nagdefy you look in line for a major dumping.

If some feature pops up locally in the Irish Sea to cause winds at the surface to go offshore for Sunday then coastal Dublin/Wicklow/Louth will join the fun and games, that's unlikely at this stage though and isn't forecast.

Do you have any opinion on snow line Blizzard, when you mention dublin/wicklow high ground, just how high? say a line from sandyford , rathfarnham up? Taking in stepaside and ticknock!
(Apologies if i have this wrong, but seem to recall this as being your neck of the woods)

MJohnston

GFS 18Z looks have undone the 12Z downgrade essentially.

Ninthlife

Ok..serious question. Wife is due this weekend and will be attending Portlaoise should baby wish to arrive on time. Driving from Kildare so how much snow within the general area may fall?

I need to plan just incase!!!!

MJohnston

Does GFS not have a snow accumulation chart at all?

Tzardine

Ninthlife wrote: »

Ok..serious question. Wife is due this weekend and will be attending Portlaoise should baby wish to arrive on time. Driving from Kildare so how much snow within the general area may fall?

I need to plan just incase!!!!

If it's a boy you can call him Bouli.

lolie

MJohnston wrote: »

GFS 18Z looks have undone the 12Z downgrade essentially.

Looks a bit of downgrade in the northeast for the early hours but probably a slight upgrade after that.

Ninthlife

Tzardine wrote: »

If it's a boy you can call him Bouli.

Girl on the way and Im hoping like most women I know she turns up late as I dont fancy driving in snow and ice

MJohnston

Ninthlife wrote: »

Ok..serious question. Wife is due this weekend and will be attending Portlaoise should baby wish to arrive on time. Driving from Kildare so how much snow within the general area may fall?

I need to plan just incase!!!!

It's really uncertain right now - but your entire trip is right in the firing line for a large amount of snow if models like the HIRLAM and GFS are correct.

Question is - how far are you from the N/M7 at home in Kildare?

gerrybhoy

Ninthlife wrote: »

Girl on the way and Im hoping like most women I know she turns up late as I dont fancy driving in snow and ice

Christmas baby lad call her Holly, best of luck sir

Ninthlife

MJohnston wrote: »

It's really uncertain right now - but your entire trip is right in the firing line for a large amount of snow if models like the HIRLAM and GFS are correct.

Question is - how far are you from the N/M7 at home in Kildare?

Just my luck. Haha

I usually travel via stradbally but could get to motorway within 15mins

MJohnston

Ninthlife wrote: »

Just my luck. Haha

I usually travel via stradbally but could get to motorway within 15mins

Oof, those are some dodgy roads from what I've seen of them...I'd be careful. It might be worth booking a Portlaoise hotel for Sunday as a precaution - as I said, nothing is certain about this snowfall yet, we'll know a lot more by tomorrow afternoon.

pauldry

Ill be very surprised if Sligo Town experiences snow from this

Think some of Co Sligo will

Also the middle strip of Ireland looks odds on

Longford Westmeath Offaly Meath Galway Dublin

Ninthlife

MJohnston wrote: »

Oof, those are some dodgy roads from what I've seen of them...I'd be careful. It might be worth booking a Portlaoise hotel for Sunday as a precaution - as I said, nothing is certain about this snowfall yet, we'll know a lot more by tomorrow afternoon.

Any rooms at the inn?

And Im looking for advice from wise men/women

Ive heard this story before

giveitholly

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

For Cork

The 18z has livened up the front as it returns south and clears away late Sunday night. I see at least 4/5 hours of snow falling for us. In fact as we won't have the onshore wind problem that Dublin will I actually see us doing very well out of this.
Definitely a rain to snow event though and our chance is very late Sunday.

Is a red warning possible for the Midlands. .....maybe!

presume tipp would get some as well then as the front sinks south

Iancar29

GFS 18z is pretty much identical in terms of snow risk.No Downgrade

KingdomRushed

Is this possible? HIRLAM showing 40+ cms for Meath/Westmeath border?

lolie

The Arome model is not pretty viewing

MJohnston

Iancar29 wrote: »

GFS 18z is pretty much identical in terms of snow risk.No Downgrade

As I said earlier, it's a bit of an upgrade from the 12z actually - although that just brings it back to where the 6z was.

pistolpetes11

I still have my snow shovel and salt that I purchased after 2010 ,

The snow shovel has actually come in handy , got rid of the grass in the back garden put down astro Turf , and I use the snow shovel for clearing up the dog Poo , could it finally answer its calling ????

Now I will get excited when Gaoth Laidir tells me to polish off the snow shovel the white gold will be with you :D:D

munsterlegend

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

For Cork

The 18z has livened up the front as it returns south and clears away late Sunday night. I see at least 4/5 hours of snow falling for us. In fact as we won't have the onshore wind problem that Dublin will I actually see us doing very well out of this.
Definitely a rain to snow event though and our chance is very late Sunday.

Is a red warning possible for the Midlands. .....maybe!

I see more rain! Its even raining here this evening. The midlands and north will do well to get snow never mind us cork folk.

MJohnston

KingdomRushed wrote: »

Is this possible? HIRLAM showing 40+ cms for Meath/Westmeath border?

A lot of things are possible. The HIRLAM certainly seems to be the most bullish on the amount of snow we're going to get.

ARPEGE 18z will probably provide an alternative view with very little snow.

JanuarySnowstor

munsterlegend wrote: »

I see more rain! Its even raining here this evening. The midlands and north will do well to get snow never mind us cork folk.

I don't agree
Time will tell

Rebelbrowser

munsterlegend wrote: »

I see more rain! Its even raining here this evening. The midlands and north will do well to get snow never mind us cork folk.

nah, Im with January snowstorm. after a horrible 24 hours of rain from 6pm sat to 6pm sun comes the compensation of sneachta ban milis. that's the plan anyway. we get the precipitation second time around when temps are coldest. you keep up your being negative so as not to jinx things though!

MJohnston

Should be partly in range of the WRF NMM on this run too. Did anyone do any qualitative analysis on the model forecasts at 48 hours for last night compared to reality?

KingdomRushed

HIRLAM for me has always proven more accurate than this model when it comes to timings of fronts. Therefore I’m more inclined to go with the HIRLAM solution.

lolie wrote: »

The Arome model is not pretty viewing

Donegal Storm

KingdomRushed wrote: »

Is this possible? HIRLAM showing 40+ cms for Meath/Westmeath border?

I'd take that!

To show the uncertainty though, here's the ICON for the same time, heavy snow far further north and only a cm or two here in N Kildare



Even that's very optimistic I'd say but we'll have a clearer picture this time tomorrow hopefully

George Sunsnow

fraxinus1 wrote: »

Notice how quiet it has become in here? Most folk now accept that apart from high ground in midlands and mud Ulster, Sunday will be a non event regarding snowfall. It’s simply to mild.

My apologies I’ve been watching the brilliant funny guardians of the galaxy 2 with ear popping surround sound on USA Netflix with a few icy cold Heineken
I shallz write another novel soon
Promise

munsterlegend

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

nah, Im with January snowstorm. after a horrible 24 hours of rain from 6pm sat to 6pm sun comes the compensation of sneachta ban milis. that's the plan anyway. we get the precipitation second time around when temps are coldest. you keep up your being negative so as not to jinx things though!

I used be positive but that never worked!

irish1967

Graphics on ME RTE forecasts show no precipitation hitting Donegal Sat night / Sunday. Am I reading that correctly ??? Since Donegal is under Status Orange Snow /Ice warning is it only ice for here. Donegal Town based.