WW XXI: Christmas Chaos!

Mary WW

Barbara WW wrote: »

but you're missing the point, we will at least get another chance, lynch the wolf now and its game over.

Exactly.the only safe play is to kill the only known good. Then the wolf will swing 50 50 for mogwai if we miss. If we hit I'll be munched.

But make no mistake the right play is to get rid of gerti

Mary WW

Gertrude WW wrote: »

On what grounds
That I’m definatly not the wolf ?
**** tat
Babs pick some one and I’ll vote with you

And this here is all the proof I need. A real villager would agree. Kill gerti

Isla WW

Gertrude WW wrote: »

On what grounds
That I’m definatly not the wolf ?
**** tat
Babs pick some one and I’ll vote with you

I dont think you are evil but suddenly asking the person you said was most likely to be the mog and should be lynched minute ago to pick someone and youd vote for them is very odd.

Gertrude WW

I’m voting for isla
Babs you can trust me I’ve alwyas said I want to see a sk win

Mary WW

Isla WW wrote: »

Actually have I been reading the odds wrong.

Babs, Holly and Me aren't all equally likely to be Mogwai we are equally likely to be Bad. Us 3 and Gertie are equally likely to be Mogwai.

I now see your logic although I don't know if I want to vote for someone I dont think is the Mog.

If we hit the wolf. Game over. If we miss mogwai we have a 50 50 shot at winning. Best odds we going to get

Isla WW

Gertrude WW wrote: »

I’m voting for isla
Babs you can trust me I’ve alwyas said I want to see a sk win

I really don't know what to make of this post (beyond the first line obviously ha)

So is this someone turning on the village with who they think is the Mog/SK?

Mary WW

Vote in for Gerti, I am immoveable on this and will not be swayed off my vote.


IF you are team village you vote hoping shes mogwai, if not you vote hoping wolf will munch her and we lynch wolf for the next lynch.


IF you are evil you will argue to vote anyone but gerti

Gertrude WW

Isla WW wrote: »

I dont think you are evil but suddenly asking the person you said was most likely to be the mog and should be lynched minute ago to pick someone and youd vote for them is very odd.

Its soo strange
Well I’m not evil
I was peeked not evil
Your a wolf
So we kill you and the sk wins
Or we kill babs and the wolves win

Trit never answered tiggers question on when the wolves were told they weren’t getting an extra man
The mods made out the gremlins were already waiting to be turned rather than picked and I’m accepting that the mods fed up with the dead notices so Mary ain’t a turned priests
Yet she’s still looking to kill a peaked villager

So let’s stick to the plan

Isla WW

Gertrude WW wrote: »

Its soo strange
Well I’m not evil
I was peeked not evil
Your a wolf
So we kill you and the sk wins
Or we kill babs and the wolves win

Trit never answered tiggers question on when the wolves were told they weren’t getting an extra man
The mods made out the gremlins were already waiting to be turned rather than picked and I’m accepting that the mods fed up with the dead notices so Mary ain’t a turned priests
Yet she’s still looking to kill a peaked villager

So let’s stick to the plan

accepting everything you said for just one moment... is there any scenario in which you see the Village win?

Gertrude WW

Mary WW wrote: »

Vote in for Gerti, I am immoveable on this and will not be swayed off my vote.


IF you are team village you vote hoping shes mogwai, if not you vote hoping wolf will munch her and we lynch wolf for the next lynch.


IF you are evil you will argue to vote anyone but gerti

Such strong rhetoric

Gertrude WW

Isla WW wrote: »

accepting everything you said for just one moment... is there any scenario in which you see the Village win?

Yeah we kill babs

Isla WW

Mary WW wrote: »

Vote in for Gerti, I am immoveable on this and will not be swayed off my vote.


IF you are team village you vote hoping shes mogwai, if not you vote hoping wolf will munch her and we lynch wolf for the next lynch.


IF you are evil you will argue to vote anyone but gerti

I've changed my vote to Gertie but mostly in the hope that she has much of a chance of being the Mog as Holly, Babs or me but is less likely to end the game via her death. Not 100% sure if I wont switch again but right now this seems the only logical play unless someone spots something else odd.

Mary WW

There is no SK left.


There I only mogwai and wolf. If there was an SK we would have **** all chance

Isla WW

Gertrude WW wrote: »

Yeah we kill babs

So why did you then say that you wanted to kill me in your previous post? If the only scenario you see for a village win is Babs being killed surely you would not want her killed. Unless your fate does not lie with the villagers

Holly WW

Mary WW wrote: »

Vote in for Gerti, I am immoveable on this and will not be swayed off my vote.


IF you are team village you vote hoping shes mogwai, if not you vote hoping wolf will munch her and we lynch wolf for the next lynch.


IF you are evil you will argue to vote anyone but gerti

Im not going to try sway you, but it a risk as much as voting for me, babs or isla. It can easily be a wrong move, nothing is certain.

Im just thinking isla myself.

Holly WW

Gerty, I get the feeling your not fully caught up on the thread. Sk is dead, jake and des dead.

Isla WW

Holly WW wrote: »

Im not going to try sway you, but it a risk as much as voting for me, babs or isla. It can easily be a wrong move, nothing is certain.

Im just thinking isla myself.

If that is because of the us 3 are as likely but I know im good conundrum then remember that we are only equally likely to be bad. Mary has a point about Gertie being equally as likely as us 3 to be the Mog but shouldn't be a wolf and as much as getting a wolf would normally be good here it would result in a Mog win.

Holly WW

Isla WW wrote: »

If that is because of the us 3 are as likely but I know im good conundrum then remember that we are only equally likely to be bad. Mary has a point about Gertie being equally as likely as us 3 to be the Mog but shouldn't be a wolf and as much as getting a wolf would normally be good here it would result in a Mog win.

Odds throw gerty into that group, however it doesnt mean its gerty.

Im sticking with you

Isla WW

Holly WW wrote: »

Odds throw gerty into that group, however it doesnt mean its gerty.

Im sticking with you

Fair enough, thats why I was not mad about Mary's plan as if I had to pick a Mog it'd be Babs but Gertie does seem the safer bet as the odds are equal with her you and Babs for Mog but it won't make us lose the game (as a potential wolf would).

Mary WW

Holly WW wrote: »

Im not going to try sway you, but it a risk as much as voting for me, babs or isla. It can easily be a wrong move, nothing is certain.

Im just thinking isla myself.

Ok let me break this down. Mogwai pooeks as good.

Ferris while claim is that she has been seer peeked good. She is making out that she is fully confirmed good. To me if she is a villager she would be good for my plan as it is our best ****. Fair enough we lynch her and she is a villager, still have a shot. Wolf won't kill me, they will go for mogwai so 50 /50 then we are down to a me and two unknowns for game. So 50/50.

Let's say I'm right. She is mogwai. We lynch her. Wolf munches me. Then we are in the same scenario. Two unknowns Vs the wolf for game.
Wolf kills a villager at munch, probably me,then it's down to the last two villagers to figure out which of the three are lying.


Either way killing her brings up the same end game scenario. 50/50 with a lynch to decide game.


My vote is in on Gertie. It will not change

Holly WW

Mary WW wrote: »

Ok let me break this down. Mogwai pooeks as good.

Ferris while claim is that she has been seer peeked good. She is making out that she is fully confirmed good. To me if she is a villager she would be good for my plan as it is our best ****. Fair enough we lynch her and she is a villager, still have a shot. Wolf won't kill me, they will go for mogwai so 50 /50 then we are down to a me and two unknowns for game. So 50/50.

Let's say I'm right. She is mogwai. We lynch her. Wolf munches me. Then we are in the same scenario. Two unknowns Vs the wolf for game.
Wolf kills a villager at munch, probably me,then it's down to the last two villagers to figure out which of the three are lying.


Either way killing her brings up the same end game scenario. 50/50 with a lynch to decide game.


My vote is in on Gertie. It will not change

I wont argue with you, but I cant fpllow you.

Vote cast for isla.

Mary WW

Holly WW wrote: »

Odds throw gerty into that group, however it doesnt mean its gerty.

Im sticking with you

Play the statistics, not gut feeling please swap to gertie

Mary WW

Holly WW wrote: »

I wont argue with you, but I cant fpllow you.

Vote cast for isla.

You are randomly blind with lower chance of success Tigger. It is the wrong play. Interestingly though if the wolf knows what they are at they will vote with me. As will the other good villager. The wolf will munch the only vote not for gerti. Thus ending the game on a 50 50 for them two.



I must say I am living the end game

Holly WW

Mary, can I ask.... cards on.the table, do you think gert is the mog?

Or is this just a guess.

Ive been stuck on her being bad all game, even with the seer check as I couldnt trust derrys info.

I suppose if you are indeed the priest, you trust derrys info knowing hes the seer.

That means my gut was wrong about gert.

I do believe if all of that is true, then gert is more likely hood than mog.

Mary WW

Holly WW wrote: »

Mary, can I ask.... cards on.the table, do you think gert is the mog?

Or is this just a guess.

Ive been stuck on her being bad all game, even with the seer check as I couldnt trust derrys info.

I suppose if you are indeed the priest, you trust derrys info knowing hes the seer.

That means my gut was wrong about gert.

I do believe if all of that is true, then gert is more likely hood than mog.

Derry was the seer. But I do not trust the good peek. It would be the same if the alpha was still alive. You wouldn't trust a good peek claim without a way to fully verify that.

Here is what I can verify.
Mogwai peeks good.
Gert has peeked good.
Derry was the seer.


I believe that Gert is acting in her best interest and not that if the village. By this reasoning and the scenario I have outlined about end game. I believe she is bad. She is not working for the village.

Isla WW

Not long left now anyway

Gertrude WW

Mary WW wrote: »

Derry was the seer. But I do not trust the good peek. It would be the same if the alpha was still alive. You wouldn't trust a good peek claim without a way to fully verify that.

Here is what I can verify.
Mogwai peeks good.
Gert has peeked good.
Derry was the seer.


I believe that Gert is acting in her best interest and not that if the village. By this reasoning and the scenario I have outlined about end game. I believe she is bad. She is not working for the village.

Week that’s like your opinions man

Mary WW

Also holly. If isla is a wolf. Mogwai wins. If gerti is mogwai. It's a wolf munch if me then 500 /50 for a village wins.

If Gert is a villager, the wolf will try munch her. She has a 50 50 chance. If she munches mogwai village is 50 50 to win. If she munches the village mogwai wins.

The wolf has the lowest chance to win while mogwai lives. As do we. Mogwai is actually in the best position

Gertrude WW

Holly WW wrote: »

Gerty, I get the feeling your not fully caught up on the thread. Sk is dead, jake and des dead.

I was using the vote list as a quick tereference
Same thing applies babas is the sk/ furby
But sure vote me cos I peeked good

Mary WW

Vote gerti wolf. Vote gerti village.

It is our only chance on both sides to safely have a chance to win.

Would you rather a 1 in 2 shot to win or a 1 in 3??