General MMA Chat/News mk3 - **No Spoilers Use Event Threads**

eagle eye

No fans, no big cheers or boos. No huge excitement when somebody gets knocked down. It's not the same thing. Not l friends beside you to chat about it either only WhatsApp or text or phone call.

Where in the world is Khabawk-bawk Nurmagomedov this evening?


Ferguson will have no trouble beating the piss out of Gaethje and be the rightful 155 champ.

MrStuffins

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Where in the world is Khabawk-bawk Nurmagomedov this evening?


Ferguson will have no trouble beating the piss out of Gaethje and be the rightful 155 champ.

Not rightful until he beats the champ. You're either deluded or trolling to think otherwise!

Mellor

eagle eye wrote: »

Either way the UFC are sending out a terrible message to the public by putting on events.

I agree the message isn't great. But the question was about the logistics of how they could, not whether they should.

And that's capitalist america for you. Dana isn't the CEO. He's answerable to shareholders and the board. If they say do it, then he has to attempt it.

Fromvert wrote: »

- Over 10 million people have filed for unemployment in the US in March and there will be more this week and next.
- Millions more are fearful of losing their jobs in the near future.
- People can't gather in groups to split the cost. (What the UFC have previously stated as a core group who buy their PPV's)
- There's a star studded telethon free to air on the same date.

I just don't see a lot of people spending $65 on the UFC when one of largest recessions is just starting.

10m people is 3% of the country.
Less than 1% of Americans buy PPVs.
The cross over between those groups is tiny.

I think also a mistake to assume that people aren't meeting up in groups at the weekend in america.

eagle eye wrote: »

Not l friends beside you to chat about it either only WhatsApp or text or phone call.

So like normal for most fans in Ireland.

xtal191

I've a horrible feeling Ferguson will lose and we'll never see him and Khabib fight. Still wouldn't be surprised if this card doesn't go ahead

Fromvert

Mellor wrote: »

10m people is 3% of the country.
Less than 1% of Americans buy PPVs.
The cross over between those groups is tiny.

I think also a mistake to assume that people aren't meeting up in groups at the weekend in america.

Well it's 3% of the pop but that's an odd way to look at it when under 16s and most over 65s aren't signing up for unemployment. How many of those people going on unemployment are in situations where their wage affects other people (husbands, wives, children, grandparents). Now we're getting into a much larger percentage of the pop affected. Unemployment is predicted to be as high as 33% this year in the US. There's going to be a lot of people making sure non essentials are eliminated.

People will meet up then the amount will be small and then those meeting up to buy the UFC smaller again. And this card is 11 days away, a lot of time for Covid-19 to spread further and with that tighter limitations and harsher fines for people going out. This card wont do well.

To add, it's estimated that about 200m in the US were employed in 2019. 10m added to unemployment in March, JP Morgan estimating another 7m will have applied in the first week of April. We're then at 8.5% of the working pop on unemployment if that's correct, how much more in the following days before April 18th?

derfderf

For people saying it sends a bad message, don't forget which country you're talking about. There are still some states with churches open.
I would class that as a bigger risk than a UFC event without fans.

Mellor

Fromvert wrote: »

Well it's 3% of the pop but that's an odd way to look at it when under 16s and most over 65s aren't signing up for unemployment. How many of those people going on unemployment are in situations where their wage affects other people (husbands, wives, children, grandparents). Now we're getting into a much larger percentage of the pop affected. Unemployment is predicted to be as high as 33% this year in the US. There's going to be a lot of people making sure non essentials are eliminated.

Even if we say it's 5 or 6% of the total labour force. The point remains. 5% recently unemployed, as a subset of the group that might have bought the PPV is not significant. Khabib pulling out is a much bigger factor.

Yes, some would have bought it and now won't.
But there's the people who had tickets who can't go. Or people who usually go out to a bar, those are extra buys that would usually happen.
Then other sports fans who choose NFL/NBA/MLB over UFC, who might tune in.

People will meet up then the amount will be small and then those meeting up to buy the UFC smaller again. And this card is 11 days away, a lot of time for Covid-19 to spread further and with that tighter limitations and harsher fines for people going out. This card wont do well.

People not meeting up to watch the event could means that two friends both buy the event.

If this goes ahead, it will sell well.

DrPhilG

I also wouldn't be surprised to see a lower price. Partly for PR and partly because it probably makes financial sense to bring in more buys at a lower price taking into account the fact that you won't have the usual bunch of 10 guys meeting up and splitting the cost.

Well obviously some will defy the rules, but hence the PR. Dana says he's offering a lower price because he knows people can't (or shouldn't) split the bill.

ASOT

$24.99 would do big numbers I think, it'll probably be closer to $40 however.

Starlord_01

xtal191 wrote: »

I've a horrible feeling Ferguson will lose and we'll never see him and Khabib fight. Still wouldn't be surprised if this card doesn't go ahead

Has this written all over it. The way Ferguson fights you would expect Gaethje to be able to land flush.

mailburner

xtal191 wrote: »

I've a horrible feeling Ferguson will lose and we'll never see him and Khabib fight. Still wouldn't be surprised if this card doesn't go ahead

I'm so torn as I love both of these fighters but I feel the same

yourdeadwright

So let me get this straight this card is not on the island, but after this the island comes into play right ?

Can see McGregor wanting to fight on the island why wouldn't you be great to be part of that card just for a historic view point ,

mailburner

Fromvert wrote: »

- Over 10 million people have filed for unemployment in the US in March and there will be more this week and next.
- Millions more are fearful of losing their jobs in the near future.
- People can't gather in groups to split the cost. (What the UFC have previously stated as a core group who buy their PPV's)
- There's a star studded telethon free to air on the same date.

I just don't see a lot of people spending $65 on the UFC when one of largest recessions is just starting.

People will always find money for this kind of thing, same with beer, fags, drugs etc etc and those adhering to the rules will stay at home and buy it rather than meeting up in groups so even more ppvs surely.
I'm sure a lot will spend that on beer and pizza alone for one night.

If the ufc have any shred of decency (unlikely) then they'll lower the ppv to around $40 or less, really feel they have to though on this one.

I wouldn't pay the full price myself for most ppvs but I would for this one given the circumstances if I lived in the states

MrStuffins

MrStuffins wrote: »

Not rightful until he beats the champ. You're either deluded or trolling to think otherwise!

Nonsense.

How can he beat someone that doesn't want to fight him?

Mellor

yourdeadwright wrote: »

So let me get this straight this card is not on the island, but after this the island comes into play right ?

Can see McGregor wanting to fight on the island why wouldn't you be great to be part of that card just for a historic view point ,

This card is domestic fighters only, the island was an option thrown out there for international fighters. I don't see how it would be possible

mailburner wrote: »

I wouldn't pay the full price myself for most ppvs but I would for this one given the circumstances if I lived in the states

Given the situation everyone is in right now, many will just say screw it and pay the money. I've never paid for a PPV on my tod, but I probably will for this one, unless there's an obvious alternative.

Mellor

Deleted User wrote: »

Nonsense.

How can he beat someone that doesn't want to fight him?

If Tony can't findof a way he must not want it enough. :P

No matter how many bums Tony adds to his win streak.
Khabib is the lineal champ. Really silly to argue otherwise.

ASOT

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Nonsense.

How can he beat someone that doesn't want to fight him?

Using your logic the same can be said for Tony considering he pulled out of two fights?

derfderf

As much as i want to see Khabib vs Tony, the main draw of it is that they're the top two fighters in the division.
If Justin wins that's no longer the case.
I can live without Tony and Khabib in that case.

Starlord_01

derfderf wrote: »

As much as i want to see Khabib vs Tony, the main draw of it is that they're the top two fighters in the division.
If Justin wins that's no longer the case.
I can live without Tony and Khabib in that case.

After the fight falling apart for the 5th time, I NEED to see it.

Gaethje won't be easy for Ferguson though.

ricero

I honestly feel Khabib smashes Tony. Kevin Lee took Tony down with absolute ease so I can only imagine what Khabib will do to him.

Think Gaethje would be a tougher fight for Khabib.

Mellor

ricero wrote: »

I honestly feel Khabib smashes Tony. Kevin Lee took Tony down with absolute ease so I can only imagine what Khabib will do to him.

Think Gaethje would be a tougher fight for Khabib.

I agree with that, based on what we've seen to date.
I've said for a while that Tony concedes the ground to easily because he doesn't mind being there. Which is fine against Kevin Lee, who has a poor submission grappling game. But Khabib will pin him and grind out the round.

Obvious there's a chance he could adjust for the opponent, but I don't think so. Not Tony.

Gaethje on the other hand. I think he'd use his wrestling more defensively and give Khabib potential issues on the feet.

And in a true mexican stand-off fashion, I think Tony's unorthodox tendencies give Gaethje trouble. Tony by darce off a high single.

DrPhilG

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/07/sports/ufc-249-coronavirus-location.html

Tachi Palace on reservation land gets UFC 249.

Sorry if already posted.

Ush1

ricero wrote: »

I honestly feel Khabib smashes Tony. Kevin Lee took Tony down with absolute ease so I can only imagine what Khabib will do to him.

Think Gaethje would be a tougher fight for Khabib.

The X factor is Tonys cardio and durability. I don't think he will finish Tony, but will he get tired of holding him down and throwing shots?

If it goes the distance it will be Khabib decision win.

ASOT

DrPhilG wrote: »

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/07/sports/ufc-249-coronavirus-location.html

Tachi Palace on reservation land gets UFC 249.

Sorry if already posted.

Wonder who will oversee the fights.

funkey_monkey

Where does Tony vs Justin leave Conor - considering that Justin was meant to be Conors next fight in the summer?

DrPhilG

ASOT wrote: »

Wonder who will oversee the fights.

UFC themselves, same as many international events.

Interesting to see how they get on with getting officials, judges and refs etc. I know they do generally just hire them privately for non commission events but the commissions have no issue with their people working abroad privately.

They might take a dim view of them defying Government social distancing advice to go work on a reservation at an event that has been criticised by both the CSAC and the Association of Ringside Physicians.

Mellor

funkey_monkey wrote: »

Where does Tony vs Justin leave Conor - considering that Justin was meant to be Conors next fight in the summer?

If anything, this sets up the title picture for the year.

The loser fights Conor in July.
The winner fights Khabib in August.
The two subsequent winners fight in December.

Still Ill

Mellor wrote: »

If anything, this sets up the title picture for the year.

The loser fights Conor in July.
The winner fights Khabib in August.
The two subsequent winners fight in December.

In an ideal world, yeah.. Good luck with that though! The lightweight division has been moving very slowly due to a host of reasons. Hard to see that changing, particularly with the stated the planet is in at the moment.

mailburner

ricero wrote: »

I honestly feel Khabib smashes Tony. Kevin Lee took Tony down with absolute ease so I can only imagine what Khabib will do to him.

Think Gaethje would be a tougher fight for Khabib.

I think so too but Justin will stand and trade


Gaethje has only really failed late on in two absolute dogfights where he went swinging from the start.
ferguson won't trouble Gaethje at all in the early rounds imo, (rnd1+2) late on who knows? not many can keep fergusons pace for five.
I really hope this goes the distance, possible fight of the year if it does.