Are there too many weather warnings?

bucketybuck

Graham wrote: »

Invested in what?

What is this conspiracy you keep alluding to?

Thats the second time you have used the word "conspiracy".

While that was the first time I have used it.

I guess it doesn't mean what you think it means.

LeinsterDub

sightband wrote: »

Kerry

Thanks Captain Hindsight

Christy42

facehugger99 wrote: »

Yes, perhaps we should never leave our homes again just to be sure.

There was increased risk for 2 days and people stayed home. How is that hard to understand?

No one is saying the risk needs to be 0. However if we have a freak event that increases the risk to peoples lives it is not a bad idea to stay home. 1 or 2 workdays lost every decade or so is not going to destroy the country. (Less even cos many can work from home).

marvin80

facehugger99 wrote: »

Yes, perhaps we should never leave our homes again just to be sure.

People were warned that road conditions would be treacherous and the majority have heeded those warnings - which is a good thing.

Still a lot of people that haven't though and they got into a bit of trouble:

https://twitter.com/aaroadwatch/status/969534822208204800

https://twitter.com/GardaTraffic/status/969498308111732737

ednwireland

CeilingFly wrote: »

Possibly they could have excluded Donegal, Sligo & Mayo, but considering how the system was moving and changing every couple of hours, there was a possibility that these areas were going to be affected.

So for the sake of one day and to err on the cautious side, it was probably best to include Donegal, Sligo & Mayo.

but its not one day the big shops are still closed here in sw donegal and we had much worse than what we have here now this winter without warnings where gritters didnt go out until after 9am resulting in roads blocked by accidents all over the place lorrys stuck on ice on an N route.

all the forecast i saw over the last few days showed us getting light snow and thats all we had until now (touch wood)

Robxxx7

weisses wrote: »

Except in Kerry there was no Storm Emma and blizzard conditions (not that I am aware of) 3 cm of snow in dead calm conditions ..

So the forecast for my area was wrong and so was the red warning which is lasting over 36 hours at this stage

Storm Emma had stalled off the french coast so was always unpredictable what was going to happen with it .. you do realise weather forecasting is not an exact science and relies on a lot of computer modelling and knowledge ... but at the end of the day nature is unpredictable and not at all binary ...

weisses

GreeBo wrote: »

Not in a red warning they aren't because, yunno, its dangerous?

Not where I live and we have a red warning ... which is kinda the issue

You are not gonna bring your kids to school when there is 4 feet of snow outside your house ... that's when you use common sense .. no matter what warning level

GreeBo wrote: »

Its not a typical Irish solution, because its not typical Irish weather.

Snow is snow and how you are supposed to deal best with it is not limited to the weather not being typically Irish ... sorry

GreeBo wrote: »

We have limited resources to deal with extreme snow because its extreme, its a waste of money to have the same snow resources as countries that have regular weather like this.

In extreme snow you wont go out

How much of the country is dealing with this extreme snow which puts a halt to everyday life ?

And how much of the country can cope with the snow that has fallen resource wise ?

I think you might be surprised

Sleeper12

sightband wrote: »

Kerry

How would you expect them to know that Kerry would escape the storm? In 1982 they didn't forecast the snow as we were going to miss it. Storm changed direction slightly & the rest is history.

With Red warnings they are aware & concerned about the boy who cried wolf effect so they don't call them lightly. When they do call them they err on the side of caution. The 4pm deadline was in case the storm was early. I honestly think some are expecting too much from the Met Office

GreeBo

Some people seem to think that the red warning should only appear when there is guaranteed bad weather, i.e. there is snow on the ground....kinda useless I would have thought.

Christy42

ednwireland wrote: »

but its not one day the big shops are still closed here in sw donegal and we had much worse than what we have here now this winter without warnings where gritters didnt go out until after 9am resulting in roads blocked by accidents all over the place lorrys stuck on ice on an N route.

all the forecast i saw over the last few days showed us getting light snow and thats all we had until now (touch wood)

Why touch wood if you are certain it won't get worse? They make these red alerts knowing that the predictions are not 100% and therefore build in safety nets. Someone was Kerry should be excluded but Cork was hit. If they thought Cork was to be hit they had to know Kerry had some odds of being caught up too. Hence the warning.

They possibly could have had tiered warnings were warnings were set for different times in different places but a simple one time message is easier to get across. Especially as it seems that many still didn't cop them and got caught out.

secondrowgal

I think a lot of people don't understand what the word "warning" means...

laugh

weisses wrote: »

Not where I live and we have a red warning ... which is kinda the issue

You are not gonna bring your kids to school when there is 4 feet of snow outside your house ... that's when you use common sense .. no matter what warning level

First it's tricky to predict what areas will be impacted in advance and to what extent.

On top of that the Department of Education need to be sure enough teachers will make it to a school. Coupled with them not wanting to oblige teachers to attend work in unpredictable conditions.

How do they manage it from a logistical point of view if they only make decisions on the day?

weisses

Robxxx7 wrote: »

Storm Emma had stalled off the french coast so was always unpredictable what was going to happen with it .. you do realise weather forecasting is not an exact science and relies on a lot of computer modelling and knowledge ... but at the end of the day nature is unpredictable and not at all binary ...

Yes ..remind me next time Kerry is red warned for a storm to include Dublin ... Just because of the arguments you used

It is lazy forecasting .... You can always go to a red warning level but when all the forecaster are saying for days the blizzard will not reach the southwest late on Thursday night Friday morning then its a bit OTT to red warn the whole of Munster on Wednesday night at 11 pm

GreeBo

weisses wrote: »

Not where I live and we have a red warning ... which is kinda the issue

You are not gonna bring your kids to school when there is 4 feet of snow outside your house ... that's when you use common sense .. no matter what warning level

YOu are missing the point of a warning. Its not a warning if the snow is on the ground. The point of the warning is so that you dont bring your kids to school and then 4 feet of snow falls.

weisses wrote: »

Snow is snow and how you are supposed to deal best with it is not limited to the weather not being typically Irish ... sorry

The best way to deal with it is not limited to it being atypical.
The reality of how you can deal with it is.

weisses wrote: »

In extreme snow you wont go out

How much of the country is dealing with this extreme snow which puts a halt to everyday life ?

And how much of the country can cope with the snow that has fallen resource wise ?

I think you might be surprised

I think you might be surprised to see the effort required to deal with it.
Strangely enough the lads who drive the ploughs also need to get to work.

joe40

I fully accept weather forecasting can be unpredictable but this event was well anticipated and tracked. Not often I say this but the authorities in Northern Ireland took a much more sensible approach, they are on the same Island subject to the same weather uncertainty but managed the situation where it was needed, school closures etc.
I really don't want to be too negative about our response, everyone did their best with the right intentions, but I feel red warnings are released for the whole country too easily. It could be more nuanced.
What I think will happen is that orange alerts will become meaningless since red is the default warning.

OldRio

facehugger99 wrote: »

65 million people and a few dozen got stuck?

Big deal - they didn't shut the Country down and fair dues to them. Kept the public transport running, kept the schools open.

We could take a leaf from their book and show a bit more backbone rather than the overbearing nannying from our Government.

So much incorrect or lies in this post. But I think the OP knows this.

weisses

GreeBo wrote: »

Some people seem to think that the red warning should only appear when there is guaranteed bad weather, i.e. there is snow on the ground....kinda useless I would have thought.

No it should be a dynamic system

Like I said in the other thread that the nailed it a couple of days ago with yellow/orange and red warnings for specific counties ..adding more when it was needed

Blizzard was predicted for late last night ...Knew that for a while ..so there is No need to put that area on red alert more then 24 hours prior ... Its ridiculous

Graham

joe40 wrote: »

the authorities in Northern Ireland took a much more sensible approach, they are on the same Island subject to the same weather

Are you suggesting Belfast will get exactly the same weather as Kildare just because we're on the same land mass?

bucketybuck

joe40 wrote: »

I really don't want to be too negative about our response, everyone did their best with the right intentions, but I feel red warnings are released for the whole country too easily. It could be more nuanced.
What I think will happen is that orange alerts will become meaningless since red is the default warning.

Exactly, and I thought the thread would be discussing this, not just more pictures of snow.

There will be a lot of people, employers and employees both, who will look back on the last few days and think that they had no real reason to stay indoors. Rightly or wrongly, that will be the sentiment, so save the outrage.

The problem surely is the effect that will have the next time there is a blanket red alert for the country. How many bosses will hear about the next one and decide to risk it? How many employees will hear the next red alert and decide to risk it? What will the consequences be?

bucketybuck

Graham wrote: »

Are you suggesting Belfast will get exactly the same weather as Kildare just because we're on the same land mass?

You seem to constantly be reading words that people didn't say, are you aware of this?

Mountainsandh

weisses wrote: »

Every time we get an Red warning in Kerry ME should just include Dublin as well .... Just to be safe you know

Ireland is a small country. There was a good possibility this event was going to affect the entire country, and it has, as far as I judge from my Facebook feed, with images of the blaskets centre under snow, all the way to Connemara.

joe40

weisses wrote: »

GreeBo wrote: »

Some people seem to think that the red warning should only appear when there is guaranteed bad weather, i.e. there is snow on the ground....kinda useless I would have thought.

No it should be a dynamic system

Like I said in the other thread that the nailed it a couple of days ago with yellow/orange and red warnings for specific counties ..adding more when it was needed

Blizzard was predicted for late last night ...Knew that for a while ..so there is No need to put that area on red alert more then 24 hours prior ... Its ridiculous

That is it exactly. In my situation the forecast was spot on and an orange warning was given and justified, to my mind that means take care weather will be an issue.
A country wide red warning was not needed. I extreme weather was forecast for the western part of the country I think there would be more thought given to extending the warning country wide

weisses

Graham wrote: »

Are you suggesting Belfast will get exactly the same weather as Kildare just because we're on the same land mass?

So basically you are saying that a blanket red warning for the ROI is OTT ..... right ?

weisses

Mountainsandh wrote: »

Ireland is a small country. There was a good possibility this event was going to affect the entire country, and it has, as far as I judge from my Facebook feed, with images of the blaskets centre under snow, all the way to Connemara.

Yes and because of it being a small country a red warned storm Hitting Kerry could easily hit Dublin and so Dublin should be red warned as well

You know it doesn't work like that ... same way It shouldn't work in this instance

Graham

weisses wrote: »

So basically you are saying that a blanket red warning for the ROI is OTT ..... right ?

You've either quoted the wrong post or demonstrated some epic conclusion jumping there.

joe40

Graham wrote: »

joe40 wrote: »

the authorities in Northern Ireland took a much more sensible approach, they are on the same Island subject to the same weather

Are you suggesting Belfast will get exactly the same weather as Kildare just because we're on the same land mass?

That is just silly. I am saying they are subject to the same forecasting regime with the same level of uncertainty. The Eastern part of northern Ireland was badly affected the western part much less so this was reflected in their response.

GreeBo

weisses wrote: »

No it should be a dynamic system

Like I said in the other thread that the nailed it a couple of days ago with yellow/orange and red warnings for specific counties ..adding more when it was needed

Blizzard was predicted for late last night ...Knew that for a while ..so there is No need to put that area on red alert more then 24 hours prior ... Its ridiculous

It *has* to be in advance of the event otherwise its not a warning.

Taking "work" as an example, unless the warning is 8-9 hours in advance of the event then its too late and people could get trapped outside of their houses.

Graham

joe40 wrote: »

That is just silly. I am saying they are subject to the same forecasting regime with the same level of uncertainty. The Eastern part of northern Ireland was badly affected the western part much less so. this was reflected in their response.

I think you're agreeing, they had forecast different weather for different parts of the country.

Much like we did.

Sounds entirely appropriate.

A Rogue Hobo

Genuine question for those complaining. Had the forecast taken a turn they weren't anticipating (entirely possible) and badly effected the area you live in. Would you still be complaining about the red warning?

weisses

Graham wrote: »

You've either quoted the wrong post or demonstrated some epic conclusion jumping there.

No I'm pretty sure I got it right

You are suggesting weather can vary depending on location .... So if the weather varies so are warning levels ... They go or should go hand in hand

Graham wrote: »

Are you suggesting Belfast will get exactly the same weather as Kildare just because we're on the same land mass?

Let me try to be clearer

The weather in Kerry is not the same as in Wicklow just because we are on the same land mass so should Kerry be subject to the same warnings that are in place in Wicklow ?