Share Picks 2018

Bandana boy

Bandana boy wrote: »

I like Ryan Air long term but Tesla is a much bigger risk .........

Indeed, Tesla longterm is a huge risk. The Chinese projects are mitigation IMO for my shortterm investment, to an extent, accepting that the share is madly volatile.

valoren

Intel trading at fair value per dividend adjusted peg ratio.

Wheety

littlevillage wrote: »

Yes and yes

I've put in an order for Ryanair at 12.70. Think it may drop tomorrow when the strike goes ahead and it's in the papers. Might drop it to €12.50 but maybe that's a bit too far?

TG860

Thought I would share a company I have been tracking lately, Centamin [font=arial, sans-serif]LSE:CEY. [/font]
This is a gold mining company listed on the LSE AIM. They own a well established low cost mine in Egypt as well as a little exploration in West Africa.
In the last few days the share price has been shorted heavily and it is currently sitting at around 90p.
There hasn't been any material updates since their interim results in early August to suggest that the current share price is reasonable.
While their interim results noted some disappointing gold production in Q2, the full year guidance was maintained and management expects Q3 and Q4 performance to make up for weak Q2 performance.

The current market cap is £1 billion. It's debt free and has cash of £232m at the end of June. (Approx 20p per share).
H1 EPS was 3p per share, I would expect that H2 would perform a little better than this. Even if you conservatively take the same result for H2, this gives you EPS of 6p per share.

That's a cash adjusted PE ratio of 11.6 (90p current price - 20p cash per share / 6p EPS) which in my opinion is a very reasonable PE in the current market.
They also paid a dividend of 9.60p last year, which I would expect them to match this year. That's a dividend yield of approx 10.6% on the current share price.

Based on the business' underlying fundamentals, the current share price is far lower than I think it should be. While the gold price has declined since H1, they have a low cost gold mine and should still be comfortably profitable at current prices. Given the high amount of short selling recently, whenever the share price does stabilise, I expect it to revert back towards it's previous 130-160p range.
I have bought some at 90.28p today.

Wheety

Ryanair could drop back again as a few European Unions are set to announce 'The biggest strike in Ryanair history' today. I might have been a bit optimistic with my €12.70 on Monday but I'll take a few more if it gets <13 today.

Pussyhands

What are peoples thoughts about going for Berkshire stocks as an alternative to an ETF?

It largely tracks the S&P 500 price...

q85dw7osi4lebg

Pussyhands wrote: »

What are peoples thoughts about going for Berkshire stocks as an alternative to an ETF?

It largely tracks the S&P 500 price...

My most consistent gains over the past few years. Will have my concerns if and when Buffet kicks the bucket. Safe til then I reckon.

Mickiemcfist

Saanvi Important Blank wrote: »

My most consistent gains over the past few years. Will have my concerns if and when Buffet kicks the bucket. Safe til then I reckon.

Grim as it sounds I'm planning on jumping in a few days after he dies. There'll be a large drop on the news, but the underlying assets + presumably Munger taking the lead would mean it's still worth a lot going forward.

ballyharpat

I bought into ITKY.AS at €10.95 this morning, bought it on Monday at €11.20. Currently sitting €11.90 - I think that it has potential for 20% in short term.

I bought AMSSY (AMS.AG) as well, paid $38.50 last week, and now at $33.77, hopefully Aplle is going to be using them for some touch screens. If the do, I see a short term boost of 10% on my initial purchase, and a long term boost of up to 50% after apple release first quarter with the new products.
The new Apple watch is really interesting, I am not into smart watches, I like classics, but with the possibility of an ECG, it interests me. The price of the watch alone would more cover me getting a stress test, because I cant replicate in a regular ECG, when my heartbeat becomes irregular.

fingers crossed my ships come in.

valoren

valoren wrote: »

Starbucks and Altria trading at fair value per dividend adjusted peg ratio.

Not fair value anymore.

https://www.nasdaq.com/article/altria-mo-shares-up-close-to-7-on-fdas-latest-notice-cm1022353

q85dw7osi4lebg

Amyris down 8% due to plant being located in North Carolina.

Maybe an opportunity to get in.

unkel

OwlsZat wrote: »

I bought into Pluristem at 1.25. One to watch. Feels like a similar punt.

Same, looks like I sold at 1.36 a day or two ago. Up 9% in less than two months. I'll take that thanks very much, I ain't greedy

So I have cash. What's next?

Lisland

Augeo wrote: »

Indeed, Tesla longterm is a huge risk. The Chinese projects are mitigation IMO for my shortterm investment, to an extent, accepting that the share is madly volatile.

NIO showed volatile jumps today and appeared to be good for shorts with quick in and out but it's a huge risk/gamble too?

Lisland

Lisland wrote: »

NIO showed volatile jumps today and appeared to be good for shorts with quick in and out but it's a huge risk/gamble too?

Have no clue what NIO is TBH

drunkmonkey

Augeo wrote: »

Have no clue what NIO is TBH

China's launched their own Tesla, huge gains in it the other day, couple that with Trump tarrifs on Tesla in China and no new Tesla being sold in China and they could do a fair bit of damage to Tesla, I'd knock 20% off Tesla valuation just on the fact it exists. Not to mention the competition revving up from every other car manufacturer.
Tesla first mover advantage is starting to go up in smoke, half the price of a Tesla in China https://www.nio.io/es8

q85dw7osi4lebg

drunkmonkey wrote: »

China's launched their own Tesla, huge gains in it the other day, couple that with Trump tarrifs on Tesla in China and no new Tesla being sold in China and they could do a fair bit of damage to Tesla, I'd knock 20% off Tesla valuation just on the fact it exists. Not to mention the competition revving up from every other car manufacturer.
Tesla first mover advantage is starting to go up in smoke, half the price of a Tesla in China https://www.nio.io/es8

NIO down 10%

Picking up some myself.

Bob Harris

Saanvi Important Blank wrote: »

NIO down 10%

Picking up some myself.

Probably due to Trumps planned tariffs.

Captainsatnav

I am losing my boll0cks on DeGiro the last couple of months. Portfolio down 29%

q85dw7osi4lebg

Captainsatnav wrote: »

I am losing my boll0cks on DeGiro the last couple of months. Portfolio down 29%

Back the truck up. Stock up on Ryanair, don't get too deep into Verastem, and hang onto HIVE until $5.

I have all three and a few other risky ones but Berkshire Hathaway, Coke (just about to pay dividend), Apple, Microsoft etc help to stomach the losses. Of course they aren't losses until you sell, which I don't.

unkel

Every single one of my investments I've had on DeGiro has realised a profit. But I'm down on the only holding I have at the moment, Porsche AG. Not a chance I'll be selling it until it is in the black though

q85dw7osi4lebg

unkel wrote: »

Every single one of my investments I've had on DeGiro has realised a profit. But I'm down on the only holding I have at the moment, Porsche AG. Not a chance I'll be selling it until it is in the black though

Bought into Porsche at the recent low so got lucky there myself, looks like the chart has started to turn for the better.

drunkmonkey

You must be up you bought in lower than me and I'm up, didn't buy the cheaper ones as transfer bounced back from Degiro.
Steady ride up now over the next 8 weeks or so hopefully.

TG860

Saanvi Important Blank wrote: »

unkel wrote: »

Every single one of my investments I've had on DeGiro has realised a profit. But I'm down on the only holding I have at the moment, Porsche AG. Not a chance I'll be selling it until it is in the black though

Bought into Porsche at the recent low so got lucky there myself, looks like the chart has started to turn for the better.

Just to make sure, you guys are aware that that isn't an investment in Porsche per-se? It's basically a holding company of Volkswagen shares, plus a few minor technology investments. So the price of the "Porsche" shares is effectively going to mirror the price of Volkswagen shares. (https://www.markuselsaesser.com/en/blog/post/surprise-on-the-stock-market-porsche-is-not-the-same-as-porsche-14174)

drunkmonkey

drunkmonkey wrote: »

....... I'd knock 20% off Tesla valuation just on the fact it exists. ..............

20% of the Tesla evaluation when it was $400 or the current price? This Chinese crowd have existed for a while like, surely the market is aware of them ?

unkel

drunkmonkey wrote: »

You must be up you bought in lower than me and I'm up

Nah bought at 57.5 ( a little big lower than you) on August 1st (a few days after you)

Happy to hold till I get my 10% or so

drunkmonkey

You'd want to aim a little higher, take profit somewhere between €75 and €90. VW and Porsche sales in China are going good. Thank the Donald.

ballyharpat

Captainsatnav wrote: »

I am losing my boll0cks on DeGiro the last couple of months. Portfolio down 29%

It happens, the market is in a lot of turmoil at the moment, Ive been holding USO for 2.5 years and making good money on it, but what I am making on the Turkey ETF profit I am losing on the AMS.ag loss, hopefully that one will come back, it hit a 52 week low today

Captainsatnav

Wtf happened Verastem today?? Down nearly 8%

Lisland

Captainsatnav wrote: »

Wtf happened Verastem today?? Down nearly 8%

I don't have shares in VSTM but have followed a bit. They are pending FDA approval (Oct 5th) for phase III (DUO). Getting to this point has moved the SP up from 4's; lack of confidence will bring buyers out close to the approval date. Also, if approval comes there will be spike but dip too because lack of confidence in post phase III for bio with op cost. It's a gamble with bio firms like this at the moment but I could profiteer from pulling a % of shares now whilst being able to account for some to pull if approval comes and then some for the long, they can be very profitable whilst still hedging.

Bob Harris

Captainsatnav wrote: »

Wtf happened Verastem today?? Down nearly 8%

Often enough with big news pending the SP goes down before it is announced. It's probably some investors getting a little nervous that the announcement won't be positive and banking profits and MM's doing a bit of market manipulation and getting their hands on cheaper shares for bigger profits.
Look at Madrigal Pharma - in May it went from $130 to $108 in the days leading up to it's NASH announcement and when it hit went to over $300.

unkel

drunkmonkey wrote: »

You'd want to aim a little higher, take profit somewhere between €75 and €90. VW and Porsche sales in China are going good. Thank the Donald.

Good morning this morning, almost back in black

Might aim a bit higher than I usually do alright. This is a lower risk stock than any of the ones I've invested in before.

Captainsatnav

Bob Harris wrote: »

Often enough with big news pending the SP goes down before it is announced. It's probably some investors getting a little nervous that the announcement won't be positive and banking profits and MM's doing a bit of market manipulation and getting their hands on cheaper shares for bigger profits.
Look at Madrigal Pharma - in May it went from $130 to $108 in the days leading up to it's NASH announcement and when it hit went to over $300.

Yes - I understand that now. Thanks for the opinion. I'll hold onto them (as they say, it's not a loss until you sell for less than you bought them for - which was $9.25)

q85dw7osi4lebg

Captainsatnav wrote: »

Yes - I understand that now. Thanks for the opinion. I'll hold onto them (as they say, it's not a loss until you sell for less than you bought them for - which was $9.25)

If you believe in the company and product (I do) would you not grow your holding ? I've another order in for this afternoon.

Skelet0n

Captainsatnav wrote: »

Yes - I understand that now. Thanks for the opinion. I'll hold onto them (as they say, it's not a loss until you sell for less than you bought them for - which was $9.25)

Don't get into biotech stocks if ya can't handle swings like that, that's nothing. Stocks can move 20% easily on no news, most manipulated regulated sector by far.

Captainsatnav

Saanvi Important Blank wrote: »

If you believe in the company and product (I do) would you not grow your holding ? I've another order in for this afternoon.

I've a lot of my savings in stocks on DeGiro as it is. Don't know if I'm comfortable putting in more until I get more experience. Only bought my first shares in February. Have about €3k invested but value is down at €1965 this morning.

q85dw7osi4lebg

Captainsatnav wrote: »

I've a lot of my savings in stocks on DeGiro as it is. Don't know if I'm comfortable putting in more until I get more experience. Only bought my first shares in February. Have about €3k invested but value is down at €1965 this morning.

I'm down nearly 4k this year but majority of my portfolio is up. Think long and don't check every day unless you plan on buying more. The more you invest, the less % you'll be down which eases the pain, albeit an illusion.

You are down 33% YTD. Increase portfolio to 4k and you'll only be down 20% etc. Might sound silly, but it's how I operate.

Mickiemcfist

Saanvi Important Blank wrote: »

I'm down nearly 4k this year but majority of my portfolio is up. Think long and don't check every day unless you plan on buying more. The more you invest, the less % you'll be down which eases the pain, albeit an illusion.

You are down 33% YTD. Increase portfolio to 4k and you'll only be down 20% etc. Might sound silly, but it's how I operate.

That is frankly terrifying advice

unkel

Maybe against the spirit of this thread, but people should think about investing in a pension before they think about investing in shares. You get full relief at you marginal rate of tax so if you are a higher rate payer, if you use EUR60 of your net income and stick it into a pension fund, it means EUR100 goes in. You also don't pay anything in capital gains taxes and you won't start paying anything until you take retirement. At which point you can take a huge chunk tax free and you might only pay lower rate on the rest

Those kinds of net after tax gains are pretty much impossible to reach if you are investing in shares yourself, unless you hit something real lucky (like winning the lotto)

q85dw7osi4lebg

Mickiemcfist wrote: »

That is frankly terrifying advice

As opposed to advice I'm just sharing how I operate and have operated for years. Don't just view your YTD losses as money down the drain, look at the bigger picture. Percentages mean nothing in reality. A different story if you are trading and just looking to get in / get out obviously.

Increasing the holding in blue chip anchors in my portfolio will as always eventually erode any losses in the riskier investments.

Skelet0n

Saanvi Important Blank wrote: »

I'm down nearly 4k this year but majority of my portfolio is up. Think long and don't check every day unless you plan on buying more. The more you invest, the less % you'll be down which eases the pain, albeit an illusion.

You are down 33% YTD. Increase portfolio to 4k and you'll only be down 20% etc. Might sound silly, but it's how I operate.

Chasing losses like that is bad idea.

q85dw7osi4lebg

Skelet0n wrote: »

Chasing losses like that is bad idea.

EDIT: I mean investing in other stocks not the loss making ones.

unkel

unkel wrote: »

Maybe against the spirit of this thread, but people should think about investing in a pension before they think about investing in shares. You get full relief at you marginal rate of tax so if you are a higher rate payer, if you use EUR60 of your net income and stick it into a pension fund...............

Executive pensions for self employed folk are better again and you can really lash the money into them.

Mickiemcfist

Saanvi Important Blank wrote: »

As opposed to advice I'm just sharing how I operate and have operated for years. Don't just view your YTD losses as money down the drain, look at the bigger picture. Percentages mean nothing in reality. A different story if you are trading and just looking to get in / get out obviously.

Increasing the holding in blue chip anchors in my portfolio will as always eventually erode any losses in the riskier investments.

So forget the %, just invest in what you think are wise & rational investments. Literally throwing money into the account to skew the percentage in the corner is head in the sand stuff.

q85dw7osi4lebg

Mickiemcfist wrote: »

So forget the %, just invest in what you think are wise & rational investments. Literally throwing money into the account to skew the percentage in the corner is head in the sand stuff.

Exactly, worrying about the percentage loss of a single year is head in the sand stuff, microeconomics.

Mickiemcfist

Saanvi Important Blank wrote: »

Exactly, worrying about the percentage loss of a single year is head in the sand stuff, microeconomics.

But if you're investing more to get the % up, surely you are worrying about it?

Bob Harris

VKTX up 140% pre market

"Viking Therapeutics Announces Positive Top-Line Results from Phase 2 Study of VK2809 in Patients with Non-Alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease (NAFLD) and Elevated LDL-Cholesterol"


MDGL - down $30 - now they've got competition.

crushproof

Viking!

Pussyhands

What are your long term holds (+5 years) ?

I like Visa, Microsoft, McDonalds

Skelet0n

Anyone who bought my initial tip is now up 600%.

q85dw7osi4lebg

Bought Viking a few weeks back thanks to a tip here. Love this place !