Share Picks 2018

Gruffalo22

Micro Focus International on the London Stock exchange (MCRO) lost 55% of its value yesterday then recovered to 45% loss.

Made 20% on this yesterday and expect to make more in the next few days/weeks as the shares are undervalued. Up 2% already today

Degiro fees are €4+ for the London Stock exchange

drunkmonkey

Gruffalo22 wrote: »

Micro Focus International on the London Stock exchange (MCRO) lost 55% of its value yesterday then recovered to 45% loss.

Made 20% on this yesterday and expect to make more in the next few days/weeks as the shares are undervalued. Up 2% already today

Degiro fees are €4+ for the London Stock exchange

Are you calling this as a short? News doesn’t look good for them.

BlackBerry could see some movement today with the Microsoft partnership announced yesterday, jumped 5% before close yesterday.

Gruffalo22

drunkmonkey wrote: »

Are you calling this as a short? News doesn’t look good for them.

BlackBerry could see some movement today with the Microsoft partnership announced yesterday, jumped 5% before close yesterday.

No I see the value rising. The news is not that bad. Shares up 6% today and will continue to rise. Oversold in my opinion.

greenfield21

Mcro was very nice, don't know how it will go now though to risky.

drunkmonkey

There’s too much bad news attached to it, chart isn’t looking good, I’d say it’ll take back what ever earlier gains it’s had today.
Doesn’t seem like anything to spur it on over the next few months either as their own forecast is bleak.

Not well up on that stock but everything is telling me it’s a sell right now.

Gruffalo22

drunkmonkey wrote: »

There’s too much bad news attached to it, chart isn’t looking good, I’d say it’ll take back what ever earlier gains it’s had today.
Doesn’t seem like anything to spur it on over the next few months either as their own forecast is bleak.

Not well up on that stock but everything is telling me it’s a sell right now.

Yeah it's not for everyone.

I got in cheap and am happy to hold for the long run. I see gains and am happy to hold and take my chance as part of a diversified portfolio

Prezatch

More than doubled my holding in TAW lastnight. It looks like the merger with AMAL is going to happen which should generate some nice synergies. The ramp up to second phase is being heavily pushed by the Chinese investors. Significant drill results expected during April to increase the mine life, one of the main factors keeping the share price low. Drilling has been neglected up on until now by this company in favor of getting funding, building the plant and being the next producer of lithium, right behind the giants Galaxy and Pilbarra. This is most definitely a low risk, high return stock. I think a target price of 80c in the next 6 months is not out of the question.

Thargor

Prezatch wrote: »

More than doubled my holding in TAW lastnight. It looks like the merger with AMAL is going to happen which should generate some nice synergies. The ramp up to second phase is being heavily pushed by the Chinese investors. Significant drill results expected during April to increase the mine life, one of the main factors keeping the share price low. Drilling has been neglected up on until now by this company in favor of getting funding, building the plant and being the next producer of lithium, right behind the giants Galaxy and Pilbarra. This is most definitely a low risk, high return stock. I think a target price of 80c in the next 6 months is not out of the question.

Plus it looks like their other neglected projects that could be just as good as Bald Hill are being spun off into a new company to get the ball rolling on them, I'm still topping up at these lows, can't wait to see where this one goes.

b4bmm

Agreed.

Was reading through Galaxy resources 2017 results today. They are currently at a Run rate of 209ktpa of spodumene. It has taken them quite a while to reach this run rate, TAw will achieve it much quicker than they did. They will also be installing a fines circuit this year. They have a market cap of $1.3B. It’s very hard To say how much value is attributed to there other two projects but to put it into perspective TAW will be producing 220ktpa (minimum imo) by the end of this year and that will be doubled by Q3 next year (rumours say t could be a lot sooner). Taw MC (100% basis) is less than $500M currently.


I continue to be more bullish as time progresses on TAW. Absolutely stellar management who have been there done that and I expect will do it all over again with SpinCo. The SP has been hanging around these levels for quite a while now for various reasons the main one being low LOM presently, punters waiting to see if they can get up and running as advertised and the somewhat bearish sentiment amongst many uninformed punters towards lithium due to Morgan Stanley and other nonsense reports. TBH I don’t mind for now as I’m scrambling to put some cash together to buy more which will in turn entitle me to more ownership of SpinCo. Fingers crossed a good deal gets done there but I expect it will. If Mark Calderwood is at the reins on that one too, after his performance with TAW, which is only just getting going, it will be a very hot play to be in and may coincide with when bullishness returns to the lithium space.

Here is my thoughts on the spin out for anyone interested;

https://hotcopper.com.au/posts/31949620/single

As always nothing is certain in the stock market and there has been a lot of jitters in 2018, that’s why the SP is still low 40s. There is no telling whether a crash is around the corner which could depress share prices for 1,2,3 or more years. It always something I have in the back of my mind. I think at current price for Tawana you won’t get much better but I have been wrong plenty of time so DYOR and Good luck all

ct5amr2ig1nfhp

Nice surprise this morning from KRC. Bought a few at 1 cent, currently sitting at 14.5 cent. Hit 19 cent and nearly sold a few but held. Super results announced recently and believe it will run again after results next month. My best performing stock the last 2-3 years.

@b4bmm, similar mindset as yourself regarding TAW. Topped up yesterday.

Edit: Just sold 50% of my holding in KRC. Sensible thing to do *sigh*

b4bmm

Wow congrats, KRC has been on fire.
Almost the same MC as TAW last I checked. Be careful.

ionapaul

Thinking about betting against the market for the 2nd time in just over a decade; made a good bit before the last correction by getting into ProShares Ultrashort S&P500 2x Reverse Tracker (SDS), want to do exactly the same now after selling a good few of my core holdings. Looks like I can buy SDS via my Davy account but can't find it in DeGiro - can anyone else see it? Only opened a Degiro account in the last year, haven't used it yet but want to save a few $$$ over Davy if possible!

Thargor

You think things are going south soon?

ionapaul

Thargor wrote: »

You think things are going south soon?

Obviously can't be sure about anything (otherwise we'd all be millionaires, right? ) but I think the wider worldwide market is overvalued and shorting the S&P500 is a good way to profit from any general pullback. Have sold a number of dividend-focused ETFs in recent days that I bought in 2011/2012 (so saw decent price growth in addition to the dividends) and will probably continue to reduce exposure to the market. Keeping some long-held equities and ETFs (including one tracking gold prices, which is a hedge in itself), so SDS would probably go up or down in opposition to the rest of the stuff held!

garrettod

ionapaul wrote: »

....by getting into ProShares Ultrashort S&P500 2x Reverse Tracker (SDS), ....

In very simple terms, is this a fund that one buys shares / units in, with the fund managers taking various positions against the S&P, or is there more to it than that ?

Thanks.

ionapaul

S&P goes down 1%, SDS price increases 2%. The reverse is equally true! So stay away if you think this 9-year old bull run has a long way to go.

Just looking back at my records, bought SDS that other time on 11/01/2008 and sold on 09/10/2008 for an almost 100% return, so the index itself fell by almost 50% during that time; I remember realising a few weeks later that I probably sold too soon as it continued to drop but it's hard to catch the falling knife etc...

littlevillage

Prezatch wrote: »

More than doubled my holding in TAW lastnight. It looks like the merger with AMAL is going to happen which should generate some nice synergies. The ramp up to second phase is being heavily pushed by the Chinese investors. Significant drill results expected during April to increase the mine life, one of the main factors keeping the share price low. Drilling has been neglected up on until now by this company in favor of getting funding, building the plant and being the next producer of lithium, right behind the giants Galaxy and Pilbarra. This is most definitely a low risk, high return stock. I think a target price of 80c in the next 6 months is not out of the question.

Just going to make a contrarion point of view here guys....(for the record, I have TAW shares, thanks B4bmm !!) but the biggest Lithium producer in the world SQM (Chile) is effectively signaling that they are going to swamp the market with cheap Lithium and run the other producers out of town....is this not a big threat to the likes of TAW, Pilbarra etc. Who are tiny in comparison?

I know that Lithium from Brine (SQM) is a little different than that which is mined from rock (TAW) and refined etc. and possibly lower grade.

But a large producer signalling this, has to be a danger right?

b4bmm

littlevillage wrote: »

Just going to make a contrarion point of view here guys....(for the record, I have TAW shares, thanks B4bmm !!) but the biggest Lithium producer in the world SQM (Chile) is effectively signaling that they are going to swamp the market with cheap Lithium and run the other producers out of town....is this not a big threat to the likes of TAW, Pilbarra etc. Who are tiny in comparison?

I know that Lithium from Brine (SQM) is a little different than that which is mined from rock (TAW) and refined etc. and possibly lower grade.

But a large producer signalling this, has to be a danger right?

SQM said no such thing but commentators have made the inference that they will do that. They came to a resolution with CORFU which allows them to increase production but they get heavily penalised by the Chilean government for doing so through royalties and taxation. Not only that this current agreement runs out in 2030, brine operations can take a long time to come online and its not feasible for SQM to pump in huge amounts of capital with an unknown future to base that investment decision.

This is why they will likely turn there near term focus to Australia where they are in a 50/50 Jv with KDR, its a more stable investment destination.
Will they increase production, yes but not to the degree many fear mongers make out.

I think this lithium podcast address the issues.

http://lithiumpodcast.com/podcast/the-wizards-of-oz/

retalivity

Any interest in facebooks nosediving shares? Currently $155, down 20ish% since end of jan. If it gets to 140 i may jump on

Captainsatnav

retalivity wrote: »

Any interest in facebooks nosediving shares? Currently $155, down 20ish% since end of jan. If it gets to 140 i may jump on

Nah this social media thing won't catch on.

Gruffalo22

retalivity wrote: »

Any interest in facebooks nosediving shares? Currently $155, down 20ish% since end of jan. If it gets to 140 i may jump on

Mark can't get rid of them fast enough

http://www.openinsider.com/screener?s=FB&o=&pl=&ph=&ll=&lh=&fd=730&fdr=&td=0&tdr=&fdlyl=&fdlyh=&daysago=&xp=1&xs=1&vl=&vh=&ocl=&och=&sic1=-1&sicl=100&sich=9999&grp=0&nfl=&nfh=&nil=&nih=&nol=&noh=&v2l=&v2h=&oc2l=&oc2h=&sortcol=0&cnt=100&page=1

They were 26USD in 2013 so I'd like to see how far they fall

evolving_doors

Gruffalo22 wrote: »

Mark can't get rid of them fast enough

http://www.openinsider.com/screener?s=FB&o=&pl=&ph=&ll=&lh=&fd=730&fdr=&td=0&tdr=&fdlyl=&fdlyh=&daysago=&xp=1&xs=1&vl=&vh=&ocl=&och=&sic1=-1&sicl=100&sich=9999&grp=0&nfl=&nfh=&nil=&nih=&nol=&noh=&v2l=&v2h=&oc2l=&oc2h=&sortcol=0&cnt=100&page=1

They were 26USD in 2013 so I'd like to see how far they fall

It's going the way of Bebo.
Kids in my school laughed when I asked em if Facebook was still popular... they said only their grannies use it

b4bmm

littlevillage wrote: »

Just going to make a contrarion point of view here guys....(for the record, I have TAW shares, thanks B4bmm !!) but the biggest Lithium producer in the world SQM (Chile) is effectively signaling that they are going to swamp the market with cheap Lithium and run the other producers out of town....is this not a big threat to the likes of TAW, Pilbarra etc. Who are tiny in comparison?

I know that Lithium from Brine (SQM) is a little different than that which is mined from rock (TAW) and refined etc. and possibly lower grade.

But a large producer signalling this, has to be a danger right?

This video answers your questions too.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=265&v=WnIKMmxqwEc

drunkmonkey

Anyone holding Disney for the long term, are we getting close to a good entry point?

dingdong1234567

drunkmonkey wrote: »

Anyone holding Disney for the long term, are we getting close to a good entry point?

Us or EUR?

garrettod

drunkmonkey wrote: »

Anyone holding Disney for the long term, are we getting close to a good entry point?

No, but would have an interest if the price was a bit lower. I think they will continue to be one of the power houses (even if they don't get Sky, as part of their proposed deal with Murdoch); and not withstanding the likes of Amazon Prime and Netflix making serious inroads into the pay tv market etc.

As an aside, there is a very nice presentation share cert you can get (don't think they actually do share certs anymore, except as a kinda gift in a frame) online, if you fancy it. Can't recall where I saw it, but it's on the web and is a genuine share cert afaik. I know someone who is Disney mad, have always meant to get her one of them.

drunkmonkey

Had a look you can get them from Disney for $50. https://shareholder.broadridge.com/disneyinvestor/

littlevillage

b4bmm wrote: »

This video answers your questions too.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=265&v=WnIKMmxqwEc

Thanks for the recordings. Interesting. So in summary, the Lithium producers in Austrailia are not particularly worried about SQM as the quality of the Lithium produced in Austrailia (and refined in China) is of a higher grade than that coming out of South America (brine). Also SQM will not realisticslly be able to achieve the larger Lithium outputs being reported, inside 2 or 3 years (if ever) and even if they do, its doubtful if they can make it commercially viable due to royalty clawcbacks etc. in Chile.

littlevillage

Anyone care to speculate when it will be time to get back into Facebook shares?

Trading at around $154 now, down from $185 back on March 16th before the Cambridge Analytica scandal broke thats about a 17% fall.

garrettod

littlevillage wrote: »

Anyone care to speculate when it will be time to get back into Facebook shares?

Trading at around $154 now, down from $185 back on March 16th before the Cambridge Analytica scandal broke thats about a 17% fall.

You may as well be asking how long is a piece of string

From here it seems that they are next due to announce results around 2nd May 2018, so that's an important date to keep in mind.

Aside from the potential for a very good set of results on the above date, I think I'd be keeping well clear of Facebook stock until late summer - give it a bit of time for the negative press to die down, the traditional summer sell off to have taken place, Trump to have found something new to play with, instead of his current potential trade wars etc.

All easy for me to say, when I've no interest in this stock tbf

butrasgali

Would any of ye think dalata are a good investment at the moment

littlevillage

butrasgali wrote: »

Would any of ye think dalata are a good investment at the moment

I assume you are tempted by the 8% drop in the share price over the last 10 days or so?
I think Dalata has been discussed previously on this tread or possibly the 2017 version

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2057688516

with the consensus being, that they are a good operation, and it has been a great ride for those you got in on the shares 12-18 months ago, but now the upside might be limited. My own opinion is that they are solid and you will probably match the ISEQ in terms of gains/losses. No better no worse.

Cute Hoor

Lash_Alert wrote: »

Any thoughts on shire? Been holding a while but seems market uncertainty around this company split has people worried. Seriously undervalued in my eyes

Good news (at last) for you this morning with an approach from Japan.

Cute Hoor

butrasgali wrote: »

Would any of ye think dalata are a good investment at the moment

See drunkmonkey's post on 15/2/2018 (page 13), he/she didn't elaborate on why

Captainsatnav

Cute Hoor wrote: »

See drunkmonkey's post on 15/2/2018 (page 13), he/she didn't elaborate on why

The Munk advised me privately and I was happy to take it and I thank him / her. 100% my own decision to sell.

drunkmonkey

Captainsatnav wrote: »

The Munk advised me privately and I was happy to take it and I thank him / her. 100% my own decision to sell.

I’m still of the opinion there’s news to come that will push it down.

Hope nobody lost out on my advice about them just viewed it as a risky hold for anyone already in the money.

greenfield21

I'm slighty still green here after q1,there is a lot of red in my pf but still up due to % invested in each. last few weeks I've started moving to higher risk which should hopefully make shares worth while again.

garrettod

greenfield21 wrote: »

....I've started moving to higher risk which should hopefully make shares worth while again.

Congrats on keeping an overall green for Q1.

What do you mean by moving into higher risk, if you don't mind me asking ?

... there's an argument for moving from growth to value shares, depending on where you see us in the current economic cycle.

littlevillage

For anybody chasing yield. Check out Mondi paper & packaging. It seems to trade at a discount to Smurfit etc. and has recently announced a 'special' €1 dividend along with the 42.9c regular dividend ....shares go ex dividend on 3rd May.

Seems a no brainer as the Shares are trading at about €21 in Frankfurt or (£18 on LSE) and are at a Monthly low. So about a 7% dividend (total) at the moment... prepare for a bit of volatility coming upto 3rd May.... but as long as the SP doesn't fall another 10%, you'll be quids in.

Wombatman

Fair play to anyone with a Q1 profit. Please post more picks.

golfman

Has anyone heard anything about EVR Holdings? (EVRH)

Essentially a VR company with an app called Melody VR. Company is still at pre-launch but has contracts in place with a bunch of big music houses like Sony, Warner and I'm sure a few more. Plan is for live VR experiences for gigs, sporting events etc. I guess in layman terms, if Ed Sheeran sells out his gig, there will still be an option to pay and watch via VR.

I was given the tip by a friend. I've done a bit of research and there's a fairly active forum on LSE which seems pretty confident of an announcement soon that will boost prices. I didn't have a whole lot of disposable income at the time so couldn't go in that big. Would be interested in other's thoughts as I might go in for a bit more?

I bought at 11.2p - currently at 10.7p

littlevillage

golfman wrote: »

Has anyone heard anything about EVR Holdings? (EVRH)

Essentially a VR company with an app called Melody VR. Company is still at pre-launch but has contracts in place with a bunch of big music houses like Sony, Warner and I'm sure a few more. Plan is for live VR experiences for gigs, sporting events etc. I guess in layman terms, if Ed Sheeran sells out his gig, there will still be an option to pay and watch via VR.

I was given the tip by a friend. I've done a bit of research and there's a fairly active forum on LSE which seems pretty confident of an announcement soon that will boost prices. I didn't have a whole lot of disposable income at the time so couldn't go in that big. Would be interested in other's thoughts as I might go in for a bit more?

I bought at 11.2p - currently at 10.7p

Interesting.

There is a similarish company that recently IPO'd on the Irish & UK stock Exchanges, VR Education. (VRE).

https://www.independent.ie/business/irish/irish-tech-firm-vr-education-starts-trading-on-london-and-irish-stock-markets-36695205.html


The same kinda products except focused on Education. Would assume these type of technologies that provide immersive experiences are going to be big ....soo a handy tip.

golfman

And there she goes. Announcement this morning that they are launching alongside FB and Occulous Go. Wasn't expecting it to be that soon. I'm expecting this to rise nicely when it actually launches.

http://musically.com/2018/04/05/melodyvr-launch-vr-music-app-coming-weeks/

Up 20% so far today.

Captainsatnav

Nice work anyone who got in.

Ryanair seems to be on a bit of a run this morn in Dublin...

ct5amr2ig1nfhp

Unsure why the run on Ryanair today but took some profit anyway. Edit: took it a little early. ah well!

Cute Hoor

Lorelei Fancy Lifeguard wrote: »

Unsure why the run on Ryanair today but took some profit anyway. Edit: took it a little early. ah well!

Green across the board today

Browney7

Anyone have any views on Paddy Power - Betfair? Further to fall or a good buying opportunity?

Cute Hoor

golfman wrote: »

Has anyone heard anything about EVR Holdings? (EVRH)

Essentially a VR company with an app called Melody VR. Company is still at pre-launch but has contracts in place with a bunch of big music houses like Sony, Warner and I'm sure a few more. Plan is for live VR experiences for gigs, sporting events etc. I guess in layman terms, if Ed Sheeran sells out his gig, there will still be an option to pay and watch via VR.

I was given the tip by a friend. I've done a bit of research and there's a fairly active forum on LSE which seems pretty confident of an announcement soon that will boost prices. I didn't have a whole lot of disposable income at the time so couldn't go in that big. Would be interested in other's thoughts as I might go in for a bit more?

I bought at 11.2p - currently at 10.7p

Great call, up 23% on the day

garrettod

Browney7 wrote: »

Anyone have any views on Paddy Power - Betfair? Further to fall or a good buying opportunity?

Hi,

A few brief thoughts....

• recent changes in leadership / senior management may take time to bed in.
  
• Online gambling is a fairly mature market, with limited prospects for new customers in existing geographic sectors, so they rely more on existing customers for repeat betting and appear in need of offering regular promotions to try and retain these customers. I struggle to see the company grow significantly without further merger / acquisition, or entry to new geographic markets.
  
• Plenty of top sports like the Masters, closing stages of the Champions League and Premier League, World Cup this summer etc. offer great potential for revenue, but obviously bets could go in favour or against the business, resulting in notable profits or losses on these sports events.
  
• Uncertainty about Brexit, risk of currency movements between GBP£ and Euro, possible taxes on betting, and potential changes in legislation relating to gambling etc. cannot be ignored.

I think I'd like to see the price drop a bit further before I'm consider buying, but that's just based on my gut, not detailed calculations. Share prices often drop off a bit during the summer period, while the company's success or failure from customers gambling on the World Cup probably won't be known until August - Sept, so early to mid summer could be a time to buy ?





.

crushproof

golfman wrote: »

And there she goes. Announcement this morning that they are launching alongside FB and Occulous Go. Wasn't expecting it to be that soon. I'm expecting this to rise nicely when it actually launches.

http://musically.com/2018/04/05/melodyvr-launch-vr-music-app-coming-weeks/

Up 20% so far today.

I would like to hear more tips from this friend of yours. Disappointed I missed out on this!