Storm Dylan : Sat 30th PM / Sun 31st Dec 2017 AM

tototoe

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

Lots of red faces in Limerick for cancelling an event TONIGHT because of this!

Doubt it yet. More to do with potential flooding at high tide this evening than wind.

Donegal Storm

Ended up going to bed around 1.30 last night and never heard a thing after that so can only assume it was a standard windy night. The forecast was fairly accurate for max gusts but again begs the question whether gusts at an exposed coastal headland in the middle of the night justifies a widespread warning and all the inevitable media hype

malinheader

Donegal Storm wrote: »

Ended up going to bed around 1.30 last night and never heard a thing after that so can only assume it was a standard windy night. The forecast was fairly accurate for max gusts but again begs the question whether gusts at an exposed coastal headland in the middle of the night justifies a widespread warning and all the inevitable media hype

Media hype exactly. A storm with a name sounds a lot better on the news than just strong or maybe severe gale.

kippy

malinheader wrote: »

Media hype exactly. A storm with a name sounds a lot better on the news than just strong or maybe severe gale.

The 24 hour news cycle is the issue here - not the weather.

amandstu

I am new to these threads and already bored with the met office bashing.

This was a difficult storm to predict by all accounts.

Storm 10

99 kmh was the highest gust I recorded at 1am in Galway

giveitholly

I got a weather station for Christmas and according to it the highest gust was 30km/h.i'm in South tipp, do ye think that would of been accurate or should it of been higher

Pangea

Slept through the storm here in Donegal

piplip87

I would rather have a warning in place and for the storm to shift north at the last minute than no warning without the shift north.

Rebelbrowser

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

Lots of red faces in Limerick for cancelling an event TONIGHT because of this!

Looking like a right pack of clowns alright. Surely even yesterday it must have been obvious to them that the forecast indicated the storm would be well gone by today. In contrast look at Edinburgh’s Hogmanay events, still going ahead tonight despite this system charging right through the middle of Scotland currently!

ellieh1

Deleted User wrote:

Looking like a right pack of clowns alright. Surely even yesterday it must have been obvious to them that the forecast indicated the storm would be well gone by today. In contrast look at Edinburgh’s Hogmanay events, still going ahead tonight despite this system charging right through the middle of Scotland currently!

I think that everyone thinks that the New Year celebrations in Limerick were cancelled due to storm Dylan......this is not the reason. There is a serious concern for flooding hence the cancellation. Might be better to get the facts correct before referring to the people who had to make this difficult decision as a pack of clowns!!

MJohnston

I seriously think the mods here need to consider confining talk about warning levels to a single thread.

Too many people who should know better who don't understand the probabilities involved with forecasting, or do understand and ignore them to score some childish "I told you so" points.

If we're going to do any post event analysis, the useful thing to do would be to compare the accuracy of the models, not whine and moan about the media, given that this is the Weather forum.

Gaoth Laidir

giveitholly wrote: »

I got a weather station for Christmas and according to it the highest gust was 30km/h.i'm in South tipp, do ye think that would of been accurate or should it of been higher

It must be mounted at at least 10 metres above the ground, away from buildings and trees. The tip of the chimney is not a bad place for it though it will still record less due to turbulence from the house. Mounting it in a garden is n9t a good idea.

ellieh1

ellieh1 wrote: »

I think that everyone thinks that the New Year celebrations in Limerick were cancelled due to storm Dylan......this is not the reason. There is a serious concern for flooding hence the cancellation. Might be better to get the facts correct before referring to the people who had to make this difficult decision as a pack of clowns!!

Any potential flooding could have been connected with the low barometric pressure associated with storm Dylan allied to the wind effect piling the water up the Shannon estuary. l’m not sure why they would have thought a threat existed today.

Comhrá

Deleted User wrote: »

Looking like a right pack of clowns alright. Surely even yesterday it must have been obvious to them that the forecast indicated the storm would be well gone by today. In contrast look at Edinburgh’s Hogmanay events, still going ahead tonight despite this system charging right through the middle of Scotland currently!

No, they're not looking like clowns. It has been widely posted here and elsewhere that the cancellation of events in Limerick for tonight is due to risk of flooding, not wind. You should try to inform yourself before posting nonsense.

http://www.limerickleader.ie/news/limerickleader/289258/flood-threat-forces-cancellation-of-new-year-s-eve-extravaganza-in-limerick.html

ellieh1

Deleted User wrote:

Any potential flooding could have been connected with the low barometric pressure associated with storm Dylan allied to the wind effect piling the water up the Shannon estuary. l’m not sure why they would have thought a threat existed today.

None of this justifies you referring to the people who made this difficult decision as a pack of clowns. I would much rather live in a city where the people's safety is the priority rather than continuing with an event and hoping that flooding and damage doesn't occur.

Oneiric 3

Graph for here showing 10 min mean speed since yesterday. (not recorded at standard height) A lot of peaks and troughs.



I think overall, the GFS and over models, pretty much nailed this, at least for my location, though clearly they overdid it for the NW region. The media hype on the other hand.. and I better stop there.

Comhra

Comhra wrote: »

No, they're not looking like clowns. It has been widely posted here and elsewhere that the cancellation of events in Limerick for tonight is due to risk of flooding, not wind. You should try to inform yourself before posting nonsense.

http://www.limerickleader.ie/news/limerickleader/289258/flood-threat-forces-cancellation-of-new-year-s-eve-extravaganza-in-limerick.html

From your link:

According to Limerick City and County Council, the expected low pressure and strong south west winds may increase the surge right up the River Shannon towards Limerick, similar to what happened during Storms Ophelia and Storm Brian

.

I’ll happily retract my ‘pack of clowns’ remark if you think it causes offense. But in my previous post i gave you a meteorologically based reason, before I read your link, as to why the cancellation might have been made. Its just my humble opinion, but based on what i posted plus the reason they gave, tonights event could have gone ahead based on ME’s forecast.

Gaoth Laidir

https://twitter.com/PicDiaryGalway/status/947452762949849094

giveitholly

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

It must be mounted at at least 10 metres above the ground, away from buildings and trees. The tip of the chimney is not a bad place for it though it will still record less due to turbulence from the house. Mounting it in a garden is n9t a good idea.

Yeah only about 2 metres off the ground so I will have to put it up higher, thanks Gaoth Laidir

fmul9798

They were ignoring the "Road closed" sign and sandbags at the entrance and driving in the exit yesterday afternoon. Deserve what they get...

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

https://twitter.com/PicDiaryGalway/status/947452762949849094

Practically turned into a nowcast event IMO. Only the last model runs like the 18Z GFS got it really right i think. Here in Murrisk i’d say we got about 90 minutes of decent squalls. Dropped off quickly from about 2am.

Oneiric 3

fmul9798 wrote: »

They were ignoring the "Road closed" sign and sandbags at the entrance and driving in the exit yesterday afternoon. Deserve what they get...

I've parked in that very same spot in worse conditions. Quite the thrill, plus it gave my car a good wash at the same time.

nacho libre

fraxinus1 wrote: »

South Donegal here. Blowing a gale with strong gusts but nothing close to the strengths forecasted. I think when the stats are in, this will be seen for what it is; a normal wind event in December. I have lived here for over 60 years and know my storms from my gales. This is definitely just a gale.

The strongest gust was of a 124kmh in Donegal. I did not see any forecast from Met Eireann detailing gusts much higher than that in the north west. You should have known from your own experience that storms nearly always adjust further north, so any model depicting a direct hit a few days out should be met with suspicion. If you had been paying close attention to the met.ie website you would also have seen they downgraded the storm a few hours before hand, but even before the downgrade it was not depicted as a major storm by Met Eireann . A storm of note will have gusts well in excess of 85mph plus along the north west coast with about 70mph well inland. These kinds of storms are not all that frequent in Ireland. Personally i would prefer a warning being given and a downgrade to occur, than a storm to occur with no warning given and the likely consequences of that in its wake. Although it would then give some the chance to bash Met Eireann for not issuing an appropriate warning

Oneiric 3

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

I've parked in that very same spot in worse conditions. Quite the thrill, plus it gave my car a good wash at the same time.

Helluva wash alright. But the salty water and the electrics.......???

power pants

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Helluva wash alright. But the salty water and the electrics.......???

Car now a future rust bucket

Oneiric 3

nacho libre wrote: »

The strongest gust was of a 124kmh in Donegal. I did not see any forecast from Met Eireann detailing gusts much higher than that in the north west. You should have known from your own experience that storms nearly always adjust further north, so any model depicting a direct hit a few days out should be met with suspicion. If you had been paying close attention to the met.ie website you would also have seen they downgraded the storm a few hours before hand, but even before the downgrade it was not depicted as a major storm by Met Eireann . A storm of note will have gusts well in excess of 85mph plus along the north west coast with about 70mph well inland. These kinds of storms are not all that frequent in Ireland. Personally i would prefer a warning being given and a downgrade to occur, than a storm to occur with no warning given and the likely consequences of that in its wake. Although it would then give some the chance to bash Met Eireann for not issuing an appropriate warning

I largely agree Mr. Mayo, but do you think a blanket 'orange' warning for gusts up to 125 km/h for the entire Ulster/Connacht region was warranted, when clearly this was not prognosed to be a major system by the models?

fraxinus1

nacho libre wrote: »

The strongest gust was of a 124kmh in Donegal. I did not see any forecast from Met Eireann detailing gusts much higher than that in the north west. You should have known from your own experience that storms nearly always adjust further north, so any model depicting a direct hit a few days out should be met with suspicion. If you had been paying close attention to the met.ie website you would also have seen they downgraded the storm a few hours before hand, but even before the downgrade it was not depicted as a major storm by Met Eireann . A storm of note will have gusts well in excess of 85mph plus along the north west coast with about 70mph well inland. These kinds of storms are not all that frequent in Ireland. Personally i would prefer a warning being given and a downgrade to occur, than a storm to occur with no warning given and the likely consequences of that in its wake. Although it would then give some the chance to bash Met Eireann for not issuing an appropriate warning

If it wasn’t considered a major storm then why was it named?

Oneiric 3

Deleted User wrote: »

Helluva wash alright. But the salty water and the electrics.......???

Didn't do any harm at the time.

I do find it concerning though that during storm events that we have these self-appointed thought police dictating about how people should not do this or that along the Salthill prom, or any other beach for that matter. I am surprised Theresa Mannion wasn't there telling everyone where they were going wrong.

nacho libre

fraxinus1 wrote: »

If it wasn’t considered a major storm then why was it named?

All storms, regardless of whether they are minor or major, seem to be named these days. At no stage did i see forecasts depicting it as a major storm for us.
To me a major storm is what we experience when gusts of 90 mph plus batter Belmullet, with gusts of 60- 70 mph over land. Storms like the one 20 years ago. Where it was beer by candle light in the local pub:o