Storm Dylan : Sat 30th PM / Sun 31st Dec 2017 AM

Gaoth Laidir

In the UK, the strongest wind report was at Islay Port Hellen (17 m), 46 gust 66 knots (122 km/h). Cairngorm (1245 m) was 65 gust 83 knots at 6 am, but that's nothing for a station that high.

MJohnston

It was named because it was predicted to reach Orange level of wind criteria somewhere in Ireland, which it did.

A major storm would be Red level warnings.

If you pay attention these things are really easy to understand.

kneemos

kippy wrote: »

The 24 hour news cycle is the issue here - not the weather.

The reason they give warnings is to make people aware,presumably they appreciate the publicity.

Issuing a storm warning that didn't materialise is the problem.

MJohnston

kneemos wrote: »

The reason they give warnings is to make people aware,presumably they appreciate the publicity.

Issuing a storm warning that didn't materialise is the problem.

It's not an issue in this case because it *did* materialise.

nacho libre

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

I largely agree Mr. Mayo, but do you think a blanket 'orange' warning for gusts up to 125 km/h for the entire Ulster/Connacht region was warranted, when clearly this was not prognosed to be a major system by the models?

It was on reflection, but i will always prefer a warning, than for everyone to be caught out. Regarding your last post, it should not be a nanny state we live in, but people of sound mind putting themselves in danger during adverse weather are selfish in my view. if it were up to me, if you make that choice, someone else should not have to risk his/her life to save you., for example if i am stupid enough to climb, Carrauntoohill, Snowdonia or Ben Nevis at this time of year, i don't think it's fair someone else should have to put themselves at risk to rescue me

corsav6

nacho libre wrote: »

All storms, regardless of whether they are minor or major, seem to be named these days. At no stage did i see forecasts depicting it as a major storm for us.
To me a major storm is what we experience when gusts of 90 mph plus batter Belmullet, with guest of 60- 70 mph over land. Storms like the one 20 years ago. Where it was beer by candle light in the local pub:o

Winter 13/14 really stands out for me. Here outside Newport my weather station maxed out, it records to 130kmh so gusts were above that.
I remember the back door bending inwards with gusts, and when I went to bed I could feel them through the timbers in the roof.
Having lived further from the coast and in built up areas previously it was some shock to experience a proper storm in an exposed location on the West Coast.

Gaoth Laidir

These were Met Éireann's evening Harmonie charts. It would be great to have the METARs from Donegal Airport, which is right on the northwest Donegal coast, but I'd imagine somewhere near 70 knots.

kneemos

MJohnston wrote: »

It's not an issue in this case because it *did* materialise.

One bit of a decent gust in north Donegal?

No harm being careful and admitting their mistakes,but the the media will always report a storm warning,and rightly so imo.

Oneiric 3

nacho libre wrote: »

It was on reflection, but i will always prefer a warning, than for everyone to be caught out. Regarding your last post, it should not be a nanny state we live in, but people of sound mind putting themselves in danger during adverse weather are selfish in my view. if it were up to me, if you make that choice, someone else should not have to risk his/her life to save you., for example if i am stupid enough to climb, Carrauntoohill, Snowdonia or Ben Nevis at this time of year, i don't think it's fair someone else should have to put themselves at risk to rescue me

I don't recall having to unfairly call upon others to 'rescue' me when out in adverse weather conditions? Not that I put myself in any great danger or anything. But there is a point to be had here Nacho, and that point is that nobody is forcing other people to rescue others. There are people who are actually trained for this job, and I doubt they would be doing it if they hated it that much and were as judgemental as some.. and very likely they are far less judgemental that those that pontificate, but would actually do very little if push came to shove.

MJohnston

kneemos wrote: »

One bit of a decent gust in north Donegal?

No harm being careful and admitting their mistakes,but the the media will always report a storm warning,and rightly so imo.

Go take a look at the stats, 3 separate weather stations along the west coast recorded gusts in excess of 110km/h which is very specifically the criteria for triggering an Orange alert, and therefore a storm naming.

If you have a problem with the warning level criteria, or the storm naming threshold, then feel free to make the case for changing those, but under the well established current criteria this was definitely an orange level event and therefore a named storm, so ME were spot on with that.

With regards to where they indicated would be effected by the storm, take a look at how much variance was in the models, and you tell me how you would have communicated the potential impact if you were ME.

Donegal Storm

MJohnston wrote: »

It's not an issue in this case because it *did* materialise.

It materialised briefly in the middle of the night at exposed coastal headlands well used to wind.

While it is a very tedious discussion the reality is that weather forecasting has changed in the past few years. The media have picked up on the fact that a dramatic forecast is an easy sell so an event like last night that would barely scrape a side column 10 years ago is now front page news and all over social media.

I've talked to a few people this morning and the first thing on everyone's lips was 'what happened to the storm?'. It was just a normal windy night here by all accounts and I'm in the area supposedly hardest hit.

It's not easy for the met, their actual forecast last night was, as usual fairly bang on but the widespread warnings and naming of storms just feeds needlessly into the media hype. I know they have their systems in protocols in place so they can't just suddenly change it overnight but the whole process clearly needs a review

Oneiric 3

To compliment G.L's charts above. Met Éireann wind forecast up to 5am last night. (I didn't make it any further)





And the Met analysis for 3 am:

kneemos

MJohnston wrote: »

Go take a look at the stats, 3 separate weather stations along the west coast recorded gusts in excess of 110km/h which is very specifically the criteria for triggering an Orange alert, and therefore a storm naming.

If you have a problem with the warning level criteria, or the storm naming threshold, then feel free to make the case for changing those, but under the well established current criteria this was definitely an orange level event and therefore a named storm, so ME were spot on with that.

With regards to where they indicated would be effected by the storm, take a look at how much variance was in the models, and you tell me how you would have communicated the potential impact if you were ME.

Already said they should be safe rather than sorry and admit their mistakes.

My point was about blaming the media for hysteria when it's clearly their job to report such warnings. The mistakes were without doubt on ME end

MJohnston

Donegal Storm wrote: »

It materialised briefly in the middle of the night at exposed coastal headlands well used to wind.

While it is a very tedious discussion the reality is that weather forecasting has changed in the past few years. The media have picked up on the fact that a dramatic forecast is an easy sell so an event like last night that would barely scrape a side column 10 years ago is now front page news and all over social media.

I've talked to a few people this morning and the first thing on everyone's lips was 'what happened to the storm?'. It was just a normal windy night here by all accounts and I'm in the area supposedly hardest hit.

It's not easy for the met, their actual forecast last night was, as usual fairly bang on but the widespread warnings and naming of storms just feeds needlessly into the media hype. I know they have their systems in protocols in place so they can't just suddenly change it overnight but the whole process clearly needs a review

I've heard some people here say they're going to review it as an impact based warning system at some point, but I don't know any more details about that.

The media are the only people to blame for the hype, ME are clear enough about levels of uncertainty when they put out weather warnings. It's the media, and people who choose to only rely on the media for weather info, who twist that for their own clicks and views.

Gaoth Laidir

The only model looking any way "severe" was the ICON, which has a history of overdoing wind events. The other models were more realistic and were showing a regular winter storm depression, the likes of which we get several times a year. Mayo and Donegal are well used to this. I'd love to get a poll from hardy Donegal folk to see how they rated Dylan. I'd say they would not rate it at all. Met Éireann's forecasts yesterday afternoon were fairly bang on, but for some reason the evening shift upped the ante with the language they used, using words like "violent". However, all along they did mention where the highest winds would be. It turns out that many of the counties under the Yellow warning didn't meet yellow criteria, but then that's a discussion that's been had a lot over the past few months. Overall, their forecasts were spot on but their warnings need to be revamped. Do away with the current Yellow and start Yellow where Orange is now.

We've become a snowflake nation when it comes to weather (and most other things too).

MJohnston

kneemos wrote: »

Already said they should be safe rather than sorry and admit their mistakes.

My point was about blaming the media for hysteria when it's clearly their job to report such warnings. The mistakes were without doubt on ME end

*What* mistakes?

Oneiric 3

MJohnston wrote: »

Go take a look at the stats, 3 separate weather stations along the west coast recorded gusts in excess of 110km/h which is very specifically the criteria for triggering an Orange alert, and therefore a storm naming.

As Donegal Storm has already mentioned, the 'orange' warning covered a vastly larger area than was really warranted. My region was under that very same warning, despite the models showing nothing more than a windy night, as they did for most of the west/north region. Once again, people in my locality were talking about an impending storm that never happened, and was never going to happen, because of all the hype.

ZX7R

MJohnston wrote: »

Go take a look at the stats, 3 separate weather stations along the west coast recorded gusts in excess of 110km/h which is very specifically the criteria for triggering an Orange alert, and therefore a storm naming.

If you have a problem with the warning level criteria, or the storm naming threshold, then feel free to make the case for changing those, but under the well established current criteria this was definitely an orange level event and therefore a named storm, so ME were spot on with that.

With regards to where they indicated would be effected by the storm, take a look at how much variance was in the models, and you tell me how you would have communicated the potential impact if you were ME.

I feel there in is the problem, over reliance on the models, models are ment to be used as a tool by the meteorologist to produce a forecast not to be the forecast, most of the posters here know that 9 of 10 storms track further north than the models show as do I am sure does met eireann meteorologists.
I would have kept a yellow warning for longer

ninebeanrows

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

The only model looking any way "severe" was the ICON, which has a history of overdoing wind events. The other models were more realistic and were showing a regular winter storm depression, the likes of which we get several times a year. Mayo and Donegal are well used to this. I'd love to get a poll from hardy Donegal folk to see how they rated Dylan. I'd say they would not rate it at all. Met Éireann's forecasts yesterday afternoon were fairly bang on, but for some reason the evening shift upped the ante with the language they used, using words like "violent". However, all along they did mention where the highest winds would be. It turns out that many of the counties under the Yellow warning didn't meet yellow criteria, but then that's a discussion that's been had a lot over the past few months. Overall, their forecasts were spot on but their warnings need to be revamped. Do away with the current Yellow and start Yellow where Orange is now.

We've become a snowflake nation when it comes to weather (and most other things too).

Well all models apart from the EC brought the core of the low onshore until 24 hours out. If the centre had if went over land there would have been damage. It certainly was not an easy forecast and the NWP did not perform well.

Soccarboy11

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

As Donegal Storm has already mentioned, the 'orange' warning covered a vastly larger area than was really warranted. My region was under that very same warning, despite the models showing nothing more than a windy night, as they did for most of the west/north region. Once again, people in my locality were talking about an impending storm that never happened, and was never going to happen, because of all the hype.

How should they issue warnings though? I mean I know they do it by county, so if there was bad wind expected at Malin head , the orange alert would be all of donegal because Malin head is in donegal, which I believe could be changed but what do you change it too. Do we change it too per area? So you can have a sperate area for Malin head, donegal town, letterkenny. Or for example in cork, if there is a storm expected in Skibbereen, Mallow, on the other side of cork, would be under the same warning then. So do we divide them by villages and city? Orange alert for Skibbereen area, Clonakility area, Cork City for example. That would become awkward to forecast then though.

But I do believe it needs to be changed, rather then reporting it on a per county bases and more on a area basis if possible because if it's only going to affect the south of a county, why make it affect the north of a county. It would just make it a lot more awkward to report.

Oneiric 3

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

The only model looking any way "severe" was the ICON, which has a history of overdoing wind events. The other models were more realistic and were showing a regular winter storm depression, the likes of which we get several times a year. Mayo and Donegal are well used to this. I'd love to get a poll from hardy Donegal folk to see how they rated Dylan. I'd say they would not rate it at all. Met Éireann's forecasts yesterday afternoon were fairly bang on, but for some reason the evening shift upped the ante with the language they used, using words like "violent". However, all along they did mention where the highest winds would be. It turns out that many of the counties under the Yellow warning didn't meet yellow criteria, but then that's a discussion that's been had a lot over the past few months. Overall, their forecasts were spot on but their warnings need to be revamped. Do away with the current Yellow and start Yellow where Orange is now.

We've become a snowflake nation when it comes to weather (and most other things too).

I totally agree. and we already have the opinions of those from Donegal, who, as you rightly point out, are used to and expect bigger things. I think I will go with their views on this, rather than with the views from those sitting comfortably in, and throwing stones from, ivory towers.

Shedbebreezy

The Met office had an orange warning for Northern Ireland with gusts of 70 to 80mph. It didn't transpire either. Malin and Mace head reaching those speeds is nothing out of the ordinary. Malin head often reaches storm on Beaufort scale while its relatively calm inland. Finner in Donegal is right on the coast, it reached 54 knots.

I'm not a met Éireann basher, far from it, the blanket warnings turned out to be wrong last night, there is no harm in stating that fact. Nothing or no thing should be above criticism, even If I'm just stating a fact not necessarily criticising them.

MJohnston

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

As Donegal Storm has already mentioned, the 'orange' warning covered a vastly larger area than was really warranted. My region was under that very same warning, despite the models showing nothing more than a windy night, as they did for most of the west/north region. Once again, people in my locality were talking about an impending storm that never happened, and was never going to happen, because of all the hype.

Yes, but the point is that an orange-level wind will trigger a storm naming no matter if it is only forecast to hit a small part of one county of Ireland. Not to mention this storm would probably have been named by the UK Met Office anyway, due to the effects in Scotland.

I've already said what I have to say about the where of the Met Eireann warnings - take a look at the model predictions even 6 hours out and you tell me what you would have predicted as the actual track of the system.

MJohnston

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

The only model looking any way "severe" was the ICON, which has a history of overdoing wind events. The other models were more realistic and were showing a regular winter storm depression, the likes of which we get several times a year. Mayo and Donegal are well used to this. I'd love to get a poll from hardy Donegal folk to see how they rated Dylan. I'd say they would not rate it at all. Met Éireann's forecasts yesterday afternoon were fairly bang on, but for some reason the evening shift upped the ante with the language they used, using words like "violent". However, all along they did mention where the highest winds would be. It turns out that many of the counties under the Yellow warning didn't meet yellow criteria, but then that's a discussion that's been had a lot over the past few months. Overall, their forecasts were spot on but their warnings need to be revamped. Do away with the current Yellow and start Yellow where Orange is now.

Oh please drop the snowflake bullsh!t now - anyone who uses that phrase just sounds like a Trump supporter.

As for the rest, yes I agree that the warning levels need a revamp that is based on impact and not simple criteria. Is anyone arguing against that?

The simple fact is that those warning levels do not exist yet, and the ones that we have do. It's up to people on here to educate themselves about what those warning levels actually mean.

Oneiric 3

Soccarboy11 wrote: »

How should they issue warnings though? I mean I know they do it by county, so if there was bad wind expected at Malin head , the orange alert would be all of donegal because Malin head is in donegal, which I believe could be changed but what do you change it too. Do we change it too per area? So you can have a sperate area for Malin head, donegal town, letterkenny. Or for example in cork, if there is a storm expected in Skibbereen, Mallow, on the other side of cork, would be under the same warning then. So do we divide them by villages and city? Orange alert for Skibbereen area, Clonakility area, Cork City for example. That would become awkward to forecast then though.

But I do believe it needs to be changed, rather then reporting it on a per county bases and more on a area basis if possible because if it's only going to affect the south of a county, why make it affect the north of a county. It would just make it a lot more awkward to report.

There would be little effort involved to state in an official warning that coastal regions would be most at risk. Once a warning is issued by Met Éireann, we all know good and well that the media will seize upon it and make the juiciest headlines possible, which does nothing but add fuel to the hype to an unspeakable degree, not out of any moral concern. but to draw in as many readers as possible and bring in the bucks. You are right, something needs to change.

MJohnston

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

I totally agree. and we already have the opinions of those from Donegal, who, as you rightly point out, are used to and expect bigger things. I think I will go with their views on this, rather than with the views from those sitting comfortably in, and throwing stones from, ivory towers.

Can we have a debate about warning levels without meaningless and vague phrases like "people in ivory towers" or "snowflakes"?

Again - most people here are in agreement on an impact-based warning level system rather than a criteria-based one.

Oneiric 3

MJohnston wrote: »

Yes, but the point is that an orange-level wind will trigger a storm naming no matter if it is only forecast to hit a small part of one county of Ireland. Not to mention this storm would probably have been named by the UK Met Office anyway, due to the effects in Scotland.

I've already said what I have to say about the where of the Met Eireann warnings - take a look at the model predictions even 6 hours out and you tell me what you would have predicted as the actual track of the system.

I already have. I gave my views on the storm potential yesterday in another thread, and I wasn't all that wrong.

Oneiric 3

MJohnston wrote: »

Can we have a debate about warning levels without meaningless and vague phrases like "people in ivory towers" or "snowflakes"?

Or 'Trump supporters'?

MJohnston

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Or 'Trump supporters'?

Not what I said

Oneiric 3

MJohnston wrote: »

Not what I said

It is what you implied, not that this should be an insult or anything, which you intended it to be.