Storm Dylan : Sat 30th PM / Sun 31st Dec 2017 AM

Meteorite58

ninebeanrows

Probably windier in Dublin now than it will be tomorrow morning!

Long live the ECMWF--- will watch the evolution with interest but so far I cannot see much difference to the evolution progged by the EC. Some very stormy conditions likely for the northwest and i'd say Belmullet will receive a gust in excess of 140kph... but the storm has taken the usual turn to the north when we get closer to T0.

Donegal Storm

Been busy all week so only heard mention of this for the first time this morning, looks like it could be a direct hit here in NW Donegal. Fairly standard looking winter gale but will be interesting to see what happens, shame it's early in the morning as I'm planning on taking advantage of one of my last lie ins of the holidays!

nacho libre

It seems as if it will be nothing out of the ordinary for the North West.
According to Met Eireann peak gusts will be 77 miles per hour.
A major storm will have gusts of 90 mph or more at Belmullet.

Meteorite58

WRF and GFS 12Z have moved the storm further off the NW again. Looks like a few counties might get taken off the Orange warning .

Meteorite58

Gaoth Laidir

Knock's TAF is not very exciting. Gusting 48 knots.

TAF EIKN 301100Z 3012/3112 25022G32KT 9999 FEW015 SCT040
TEMPO 3012/3015 -SHRA SCT018CB
BECMG 3014/3016 24014KT
BECMG 3016/3018 15010KT
BECMG 3021/3023 14020G30KT
TEMPO 3021/3024 3000 -RA BKN007
BECMG 3023/3101 23025G35KT
TEMPO 3023/3106 24035G48KT TEMPO 3103/3112 -SHRA SCT018CB
BECMG 3106/3109 24015G25KT
BECMG 3109/3112 24009KT=

Taking that with the Harmonie animation I posted earlier leads me to think that Met Éireann see a bit of a downgrade. We'll see in their update at 4 pm.

Meteorite58

Taking that with the Harmonie animation I posted earlier leads me to think that Met Éireann see a bit of a downgrade. We'll see in their update at 4 pm.

I think so too, the 12Z ICON though bringing the storm track closer again with a wider windfield. Hasen't performed well far out but normally not far off the mark closer to the event although inclined to overcook the wind speeds.

Meteorite58

Interesting how the ICON has the storm track curve around Ireland, on this run it has brought it in closer hugging the coast more.




I wonder if the Jet eased off a bit as in the chart below could this have the effect of letting the Storm slow a bit and drift in more towards Ireland ?

ninebeanrows

If it looks like a fish, smells like a fish and feels like a fish , it's probably a fish. ��

Meteorite58

Mean wind speeds.

squarecircles

Severe/damaging gusts removed from the met forecast now,looks like a standard winter storm now,pity ,thought this could have been more interesting,given all the non events lately.

Meteorite58

Met Eireann Update : Southeast winds will freshen during the early part of the night, then veer southwest and become strong for the night as Storm Dylan passes close to the northwest coast. The winds will be storm force at the coast, with gusts of up to 125 km/h expected. Lowest temperatures of 2 to 6 degrees, coldest further north in the early part of the night. Rain will become widespread tonight. In the north it will be heaviest, with a risk of thunder, and will fall as snow and sleet over the hills and mountains. Coastal flooding is expected along the west coast as high seas coincide with low tide and onshore winds.

ninebeanrows

It would be a significant storm if it made direct landfall- will sure look impressive later on

Oneiric 3

squarecircles wrote: »

Severe/damaging gusts removed from the met forecast now,looks like a standard winter storm now,pity ,thought this could have been more interesting,given all the non events lately.

I would expect far more from even a 'standard' winter storm tbh. Storms these days are the Meteorological equivalent of the musical prowess of Harry Styles or Katy Perry or some other ultra-bland, soul slaughtering pop **** that is spewed upon us today. I want my storms to be more like Iggy Pop, David Bowie, Nine Inch Nails etc, just like they used to be. :mad:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u7APmRkatEU

Soccarboy11

Rain started here now in Clonakilty , Cork.

gozunda

Wind strenght already increasing here at 130 m asl. North Cork / Limerick / Tipperary border.

Larbre34

Weathercheck wrote: »

If it looks like a fish, smells like a fish and feels like a fish , it's probably a fish. ��

Oh the temptation.....

fraxinus1

Once again the weather warning system is shown to be increasingly farcical. Earlier today, before the downgrades, Met Eireann mentioned gusts of 125kmph that would be severe and damaging. Their latest forecast still refers to 125kmph gusts yet they have removed reference to damaging and severe gusts. It makes no sense.

power pants

Basically anything that deviates from grey dull and overcast now merits a weather warning in Ireland.

JCX BXC

Some of you have severe anger associated with this!

I think relevant points have been made as to why the warnings are justified, my gripe would be with the dramatization of these by the general media.

Seriously though, there's no need to be so fiercely aggressive about your points as the above 2 posts! What happened to a reasonable debate?

seanin4711

Is thus going to be like Ophelia?
Freak out the pensioners and much ado about nothing?

gozunda

seanin4711 wrote: »

Is thus going to be like Ophelia?
Freak out the pensioners and much ado about nothing?

How about we wait until tomorrow before throwing the baby out with the bathwater ? :rolleyes:

squarecircles

seanin4711 wrote: »

Is thus going to be like Ophelia?
Freak out the pensioners and much ado about nothing?

No,there's unlikely to be fatalities,like during hurricane Ophelia.

It's happening during the early hours of the morning at the weekend.

Perhaps some minor power outrages in remote areas of the west and northwest and some coastal flooding.

But nothing like the severe regional damage caused by Ophelia,that claimed 3 lives.

dmc17

JCX BXC wrote: »

Some of you have severe anger associated with this!

I think relevant points have been made as to why the warnings are justified, my gripe would be with the dramatization of these by the general media.

Seriously though, there's no need to be so fiercely aggressive about your points as the above 2 posts! What happened to a reasonable debate?

Exactly. What's drives me mad is all the captain hindsights who come along after the event and say "sure that shouldn't have been a red/orange/yellow........ etc."

If the people who don't agree with the warnings which are forecast don't like them, they are free to ignore them.

nagdefy

JCX BXC wrote: »

Some of you have severe anger associated with this!

I think relevant points have been made as to why the warnings are justified, my gripe would be with the dramatization of these by the general media.

Seriously though, there's no need to be so fiercely aggressive about your points as the above 2 posts! What happened to a reasonable debate?

I think some posters are obsessed with what happens within their own 5 mile radius JCX.

Need to complain and be negative. Always need someone to blame for everything. Be the target Met Eireann or simply venting when they don't get snow.

If you're a few miles from the sea you're chances of snow are, were and will always be diminished.

There's nobody to blame!

If you're on the coast you'll have more wind events.

With the December snow week mid month some who hadn't snow whinged and then remarked to those who did that you only had an inch of wet snow. When some had 8 inches and couldn't travel!

Some posters will never contribute a positive post. It's far easier to be the hurler on the ditch and criticise than offer a positive solution.

Gaoth Laidir

The latest Sligo TAF to 3 am only has max 40-knot gusts up to that point. The next one will be issued at 8 pm and valid until 6 am.

TAF EISG 301700Z 3018/3103 16010KT 9999 FEW025
BECMG 3021/3024 15020G30KT 7000 -RA BKN010
TEMPO 3022/3024 16025G40KT 4000 RA BKN007
BECMG 3100/3102 22025G35KT 9999 NSW BKN030=

Knock's latest has max gust down from 48 to 45 knots.

TAF EIKN 301700Z 3018/3118 17010KT 9999 BKN030
BECMG 3020/3023 16020G30KT 7000 -RA BKN010
TEMPO 3021/3024 3000 RA BKN005
BECMG 3023/3101 23025G35KT 9999 NSW BKN030
TEMPO 3023/3105 24032G45KT
TEMPO 3103/3118 -SHRA SCT018CB BECMG 3106/3108 24015G25KT
BECMG 3109/3112 24009KT
TEMPO 3111/3116 5000 SHRA BKN009=

sryanbruen

Yes, look at me for example under the red status warning for Ophelia and nothing major out of the ordinary happened for my location specifically yet you don't see me complaining about Met Éireann. Same thing with the Dec 10th snow. Instead, you see me complaining about the unjustified hate towards them.

I used to give a lot of hate towards forecasters when getting it wrong from when I was younger but over the years, I had discovered how difficult it is.

kippy

seanin4711 wrote: »

Is thus going to be like Ophelia?
Freak out the pensioners and much ado about nothing?

3 people died - half a billion euros worth of damage?
And that was with as much preparation and warning as possible.
You might want to review your valuation on "much ado about nothing........

Soccarboy11

Wind is after picking up a lot here on the west cork coast with some gusts pretty strong. heavy rain showers aswell that then transition to mist and back again aswell. Must be starting to move up?