Storm Dylan : Sat 30th PM / Sun 31st Dec 2017 AM

Soccarboy11

sryanbruen wrote: »

Yes, look at me for example under the red status warning for Ophelia and nothing major out of the ordinary happened for my location specifically yet you don't see me complaining about Met Éireann. Same thing with the Dec 10th snow. Instead, you see me complaining about the unjustified hate towards them.

I used to give a lot of hate towards forecasters when getting it wrong from when I was younger but over the years, I had discovered how difficult it is.

As used I, until I came across this weather forum at the start of the year and actually started to look at all the models (and I have learnt a lot from all of you), and those models are basically what met eireann have to go off. We can see how unpredictable they are, and even today the models didn't know where exactly the Storm would hit. So I think met eireann does a great job with the information they have. We are a small island next to a massive ocean with lots of factors to take into account. If one thing changes, everything changes. I think it's incredible really what they do and how close they can get things usually.

Oneiric 3

nagdefy wrote: »

I think some posters are obsessed with what happens within their own 5 mile radius JCX.

Yes, and I'd be one of them, and I make no apologies for that. While I do have a great interest in the climate of Ireland, I really only care about the immediate weather in my own patch. I really don't get to see what the problem is with this. I will say though that posts like this, which do pop up quite regularly, accusing people of being too 'imby', are nonsensical and smacks a just a little too much of pomposity for my liking.

M.T. Cranium

Still looks to be rather localized to Connacht and west Ulster coastal areas and in the time frame 0200-0600h.

Current location of storm is about 51N 18W but winds have not really increased much as close to that as M6 buoy.

Most likely outcome is little disruption outside of that coastal zone where they are quite used to (and prepared for) wind gusts of 120 km/hr.

nagdefy

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Yes, and I'd be one of them, and I make no apologies for that. While I do have a great interest in the climate of Ireland, I really only care about the immediate weather in my own patch. I really don't get to see what the problem is with this. I will say though that posts like this, which do pop up quite regularly, accusing people of being too 'imby', are nonsensical and smacks a just a little too much of pomposity for my liking.

No pomposity just realism. It's very difficult to forecast saying 'much of inland Connacht will not receive gusts of 125km per hour.' Where do you draw the line? What about hilly terrain in East Galway?

That's just wind. For a yellow rainfall warning it's nigh on impossible to predict for a 5 mile radius as to who will end up with the highest mm total.

nagdefy

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Yes, and I'd be one of them, and I make no apologies for that. While I do have a great interest in the climate of Ireland, I really only care about the immediate weather in my own patch. I really don't get to see what the problem is with this. I will say though that posts like this, which do pop up quite regularly, accusing people of being too 'imby', are nonsensical and smacks a just a little too much of pomposity for my liking.

Of course we all want to know our local forecast but it's not nonsense to understand that this is difficult to forecast. And i was referring to the broader context of people saying Ophelia was little more than a gale when others were so badly hit. Of course the warning system needs tweaking but there are far more positives than negatives.

Noted i've been accused of nonsense and pomposity by you.

nacho libre

seanin4711 wrote: »

Is thus going to be like Ophelia?
Freak out the pensioners and much ado about nothing?

What kind of thinking is this? 3 people lost their lives. Was it much ado about nothing to their relatives? If those in state services had adopted your mentality the number might well have been higher.
Just because winds were not severe in your back garden does not mean it was a non event all over the island.

Oneiric 3

nagdefy wrote: »

What about hilly terrain in East Galway?

Probably one of the least hilly regions in the entire country:



An orange warning for gusts of 125 km over the entire Connacht region is unrealistic in my opinion. Perhaps I will be proved wrong, In fact I sincerely hope I am.

Gaoth Laidir

I think it's looking increasingly like there should justbe a yellow warning for Galway (west), Mayo and Donegal and sod all for the rest of the country. A few stations will be interesting to monitor, otherwise a windy night but nothing of note

ednwireland

Still very calm in sw donegal just out of the cinema!
But then not expecting much before midnight.

JCX BXC

No real wind in West Clare, looks like it won't develop as strong as previously expected.

Soccarboy11

Still gusting pretty strong here in west cork. When's the next model updates due? Will be interesting to see what they say!

igCorcaigh

Any chance of this quickly intensifying?

sryanbruen

Soccarboy11 wrote: »

Still gusting pretty strong here in west cork. When's the next model updates due? Will be interesting to see what they say!

GFS 18z is 9:30, that much I know.

Jimbob1977

Were Limerick City and County Council too hasty last night for cancelling the New Year's Eve festivities on a Sunday night?

Their fear was storm coupled with a high tide

Gaoth Laidir

igCorcaigh wrote: »

Ophelia produced the strongest winds I have ever experienced. It was genuinely scary. I had all my curtains pulled for fear of a slate coming through a window!

I assume some of the naysayers were not here in the South.

Nobody has ever questioned the severity of Ophelia in Cork and the Red there was well-warranted. It's the rest of the country that is the problem.

A piggery roof doesn't have leaves on it so wind at any time of the year is likely to have removed it. The wind received in Laois that day is most likely less than that received several other times of the year, so it was probably the roof's time to go.

Anyway, here are tonight's Aerodrome warnings.

Knock EIKN AD WRNG 01 VALID 302300/310600 SFC WIND SW 25-30KT MAX 40-45 FCST =

Dublin EIDW AD WRNG 02 VALID 302300/310800 SFC WIND SW 25-30KT MAX 40-45 FCST =

Casement EIME AD WRNG 02 VALID 302300/310800 SFC WIND SW 25-30KT MAX 40-45 FCST =

Cork EICK AD WRNG 01 VALID 302200/310500 SFC WIND SW 20-25KT MAX 40-45 FCST =

Shannon EINN AD WRNG 01 VALID 302200/310700 SFC WIND SW 25-30KT MAX 40-45 FCST =

EISN PR WRNG 01 VALID 301712/302300 EISN SURFACE PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE VALUES 980HPA AND 964HPA IN THE SHANNON FIR DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD =

Sligo's latest TAF. Further significant downgrade, max gust now forecast to be only 40 knots.

TAF EISG 302000Z 3021/3106 16010KT 9999 BKN020
BECMG 3021/3024 15020G30KT 8000 -RA BKN014 TEMPO 3022/3024 16025G40KT 4000 RA BKN007
BECMG 3100/3102 23025G35KT 9999 NSW BKN030
TEMPO 3102/3106 -SHRA SCT018CB=

fraxinus1

Folk in Limerick won’t be to happy after postponing their fireworks based on storm and flood warnings. Neither of which will happen. No doubt a considerable amount of money has been wasted planning for the fireworks.

I wonder how many other events were postponed or cancelled around the country?

DOCARCH

Mod Note: Please do not continue the (ongoing) debate on ME warnings in this thread. It's off topic (....and getting tiresome!).

Suggest that the debate be carried on in this thread https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2057822948

dmc17

JCX BXC wrote: »

No real wind in West Clare, looks like it won't develop as strong as previously expected.

Picking up a little bit now

Soccarboy11

Latest from met eireann:

https://twitter.com/MetEireann/status/947206492540850176

Wind down here has gotten stronger, which I wasn't expecting much tbh so I'm wondering how it will be up the country

DOCARCH

Mod Note: I have moved some recent posts....for your convenience. To be found here: https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2057822948

pad199207

fraxinus1 wrote: »

Folk in Limerick won’t be to happy after postponing their fireworks based on storm and flood warnings. Neither of which will happen. No doubt a considerable amount of money has been wasted planning for the fireworks.

I wonder how many other events were postponed or cancelled around the country?

A good few events have been cancelled. They aren’t too grumpy about it because it’s better to be safe than sorry not moan about and make a big deal out of it.
Any event planned outdoor in Ireland is always subject to weather conditions.

Lets be thankful it wasn’t as bad as thought.

Meteorite58

Soccarboy11 wrote: »

Latest from met eireann:

https://twitter.com/MetEireann/status/947206492540850176

Wind down here has gotten stronger, which I wasn't expecting much tbh so I'm wondering how it will be up the country

The storm to me looks closer to land then the previous run posted.

https://twitter.com/MetEireann/status/947059494441439233

https://twitter.com/MetEireann/status/947206492540850176



Will be very interested to see how the ICON handles this and to see what actual wind speeds are recorded.

Oneiric 3

Met Éireann 3 hour forecast up to 11pm:

M.T. Cranium

Some recent obs, temperatures widely near 14 C across all of France, Dylan has some heat energy at its disposal ... latest fix on location would be 53N 17W just west of the M6 buoy which has dropped to 979 mbs (at 20z) but is not reporting strong winds. From the satellite imagery, I believe strong winds at this point are confined to 100 km radius but this will expand to 200 km by midnight when the centre will be perhaps 120 km northwest of Belmullet.

Locations from Newport to Belmullet around the coast to west Donegal can expect a period of very strong gusts tonight. It will probably peak at about 65 knots 0200-0600h there. For Galway Bay, I would expect maybe peak 55 knots at 0300-0500h. Anywhere else will be (un)lucky to see much over 45 knots, south coast exposed locations may touch 50-55. Some inland southeast locations may only peak around 30 to 35 knots.

That's the current assessment, with a small but active system like Dylan, you have to accept that nowcasting is the main menu, it can develop meso-scale features in its frontal systems which are already impacting western Ireland. Some thunder and lightning in Connacht and Ulster should not surprise us. That would be both out ahead of the storm along the developing occlusion, and in squalls coming inland later.

So bottom line is, not much blowing in the wind except for coastal northwest.

Oscar Bravo

2107 met update

Extremely windy or stormy overnight with the most severe winds over the northern half of the country, as Storm Dylan passes close to the northwest coast, bringing gale force southwesterly winds, storm force along some coasts with some violent and damaging gusts expected. Some heavy rain also, giving way to squally showers overnight and lowest temperatures of 3 to 7 degrees Celsius.
Coastal flooding is expected along parts of the west and north coasts due to a combination of high tides, high seas and low pressure

downwiththatsor

Really picking up down in Kerry now anyway. Not sure if any closer than forecast.

Oscar Bravo

9pm

Valentia gusting 47 knots
Kinsale 38 knots
Cork airport 37 knots
Sherkin 35 knots
Roaches point 36 knots

JanuarySnowstor

pad199207 wrote: »

fraxinus1 wrote: »

Folk in Limerick won’t be to happy after postponing their fireworks based on storm and flood warnings. Neither of which will happen. No doubt a considerable amount of money has been wasted planning for the fireworks.

I wonder how many other events were postponed or cancelled around the country?

A good few events have been cancelled. They aren’t too grumpy about it because it’s better to be safe than sorry not moan about and make a big deal out of it.
Any event planned outdoor in Ireland is always subject to weather conditions.

Lets be thankful it wasn’t as bad as thought.

Disgraceful decision the storm is tonight,brief and almost entirely affecting the northwest.
No justification whatsoever to cancel something tomorrow night let alone limerick

pad199207

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Disgraceful decision the storm is tonight,brief and almost entirely affecting the northwest.
No justification whatsoever to cancel something tomorrow night let alone limerick

Oh tomorrow night! Yeah that’s a bit stupid to postpone it tomorrow night.
Obviously those folks who organised the event aren’t paying attention to the forecast.

Soccarboy11

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Met Éireann 3 hour forecast up to 11pm:

Where that orange blob hits the cork coast is where I am right now, can feel it alright has the house shaking. Directly across from the ocean so pretty open and wild. Power was gone yesterday night so hopefully it stays tonight!