lies, damned lies, and statistics

GGTrek

This evening after reading a few articles in the Irish press (much better than reading horrible Dail debates that make me vomit) I finally read the first balanced article about Housing in the Irish times in a long time, where two very different views were shown and another decent article again in the Irish Times actually showing the data on vacant properties (instead of the lies propagated by govvie, councils and so called homeless NGOs). Since there is a poster in this forum that enjoys posting recurrent dubious stats about homeless numbers and housing numbers, I shall do the same.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/social-affairs/housing-needs-blown-out-of-proportion-1.3339173

Estimates of the number of homes needed to solve Ireland’s housing crisis have been blown out of proportion by organisations with “skin in the game” Conor Skehan, outgoing chairman of the Housing Agency, has said.

Some 20,000-25,000 homes need to be built each year, according to the Housing Agency. However, Goodbody Stockbrokers has put that figure at 35,000 and Trinity College Dublin economist Ronan Lyons, who works with property website Daft.ie, has said the number is closer to 50,000, a figure recently also cited by estate agents Hooke and MacDonald.

Responding to Mr Skehan’s comments, Mr Lyons said the Housing Agency’s figures were out of date.

“I’m not clear how Daft would benefit from talking up the housing numbers, but when I speak, I speak as an academic and I would struggle to come up with any number smaller than 40,000, let alone 20,000.”

Mr Skehan said demand was close to being met, with 18,000-20,000 homes expected to have been provided this year.

The second article on vacant properties in Ireland (ok the title is absolute s..e, fully pack and parcel of the govvie line the Irish Times is so proud about, but the content is actually rather good):
https://www.irishtimes.com/business/construction/more-than-95-000-properties-vacant-across-state-report-1.3338982

Of the 26 counties examined in the report, 14 recorded vacancy rates above the national average with Leitrim, Roscommon and Mayo having the highest vacancy rates at between 13 and 16 per cent.
Dublin had the lowest vacancy rates at 0.8 per cent, while and its surrounding commuter counties including Kildare and Wicklow had vacancies of between 2 and 2.5 per cent of the total housing stock.

So all this b...t about vacant properties was absolute b...t just good for the communist housing/homeless NGOs to scream loud and good for the govvie to show they were doing something in the media. The truth is: where properties are most needed there are almost no vacant properties and there are plenty of vacant properties where very few people want to live (I am shocked by such a basic economic fact :D:D)
Another balanced opinion and good facts on where construction is concentrated now:

“Building is heavily concentrated around Dublin and surrounding counties, while demand for housing stock remains at a high level. While progress has been made, there is still work to do in order to meet demand,” said Dara Keogh, GeoDirectory chief executive.

What the articles show: the numbers on future housing needs have a massive standard deviation (i.e possible ranges) since they are estimated based on several economic factors and different sets of data. I have a feeling that many so called Irish Economists are making optimistic assumptions on the Irish Economy and demographic numbers (which are usually strongly correlated to economic growth) when making their calculations (Ronan Lyons and Housing Agency both come to mind ), like any other academic these people should show the statistical methods they employed to reach their numbers, their assumptions and the data they used.  Until then I shall not believe a single number coming from these people who all have a lot of "skin in the game" (this is a very appropriate term).

bleary

The housing agency does provide details on its report and the projections appear to be using census 2016 data so those criticisms appear unfounded, however they are only projecting additional demand for urban areas , excluding rural one off houses.
These were running at approx 5000 a year from some reports published in other years, giving 25,000
also this does not appear to make estimates for obsolescence , the report itself said this was an absolute minimum and that an alternative method estimated 30,000.
Why the head of the government agency would say that we are almost meeting demand at current building levels seems poorly informed.
I'd have a lot more time for Ronan lyons in general and his analysis generally

Samuel T. Cogley

The vacancy rate in Dublin also has to take into account listed buildings which will always be left to rot as doing them up in some areas is simply madness. The council has the power to take over the buildings, but even they won't as they are such a headache. The status of these buildings really needs to be looked at, either we save them which will require the intervention of the public purse or we make the land available for development.

bleary

The low vacancy rate quoted below is from the geo directory publication. This is sourced from an post and deliveries. The vacant properties a postman flags are very different to the nuber of properties with no one living in that could be occupied which equates better with the figure we would like to know.

For example when I was away travelling for a extended period, my postman had no reason to flag this , he wouldn't have known. However my property would have been marked vacant in the census due to the methods they use to check with neighbours etc.
When someone moves to a nursing home leaving the house vacant, this would have been marked as such in the census but not by an post as post still n the same name and collected etc.
How do they check apartments etc.

I think the main part of updating the Vacant properties may relate to the issuing of TV licence notices.it appears to be dependant on an post local employees updating the data, It is an underestimate of the vacant number, by how much is unknown.

antoinolachtnai

The geodirectory figure is not to be relied upon really to determine vacancy. It will always underestimate vacancies, particularly in an urban area. It is simply not in the post person’s interest to report an urban property as vacant.

CSO did a detailed investigation on vacancies in habitable residential buildings last year and it would make more sense to rely upon their figures. The vacancy rate has probably fallen since then, certainly, But there are still plenty vacancies.

There are also a significant number of vacant retail units on the ground floor levels of apartment blocks which would be as well converted into residential.

Wesser

Ha ha ha did you see what Conor skehan had to say about cabaiste and oraiste
Very funny lol

Check out the article hidden down at the bottom of page 3 of yesterdays IT.

GGTrek

Wesser wrote: »

Ha ha ha did you see what Conor skehan had to say about cabaiste and oraiste
Very funny lol

Check out the article hidden down at the bottom of page 3 of yesterdays IT.

This is the article: https://www.irishtimes.com/news/social-affairs/baby-boomers-distorting-housing-market-agency-claims-1.3339159