Property Market 2018

zl1whqvjs75cdy

Zenify wrote: »

It could.

If you Google Glenveigh chart you'll see it's an even steeper decline at the same time. Probably around August. It's both companies at the same time which shows its external. It could be due to the higher wages of staff and lack of staff. However, it is the same time many people have started to see asking prices reduce.

Could also be the carillon collapse in the UK. Shook confidence in the building sector.

Zenify

donkeyoaty0099 wrote: »

Could also be the carillon collapse in the UK. Shook confidence in the building sector.

Carillion collapsed in January (I think). If you have a look at the chart below you will see Glenveigh is still going up in Jan/Feb. Investors are usually on the ball with knock on effects and nothing really happens to Glenveigh until August. 

zl1whqvjs75cdy

My bad. Should have done the cursory Google. It is strange but not particularly great for Irish construction.

The_Conductor

donkeyoaty0099 wrote: »

My bad. Should have done the cursory Google. It is strange but not particularly great for Irish construction.

Time coincides with Glenveagh having trouble shifting Green Lane in Leixlip. September also coincides with a statement to the Stock Exchange- where they noted 'strong sales of EUR1.3m in the 6 months to end of June 2018' and landbank purchases of 479m since October 2017 (when they had their IPO).

One reason for Glenveagh having a bit of a rollercoaster share price- is the manner in which shares were vested in shareholders- and the lock-in periods expiring precisely at the end of September (12 months after the IPO).

AlmightyCushion

Zenify wrote: »

A poster here before put up the share price to some of Irelands residential builders. I now follow it closely as it gives an idea to what investors are thinking about these companies. Take it with a pinch of salt as "investors" can be pretty stupid with the market. 

Carin Homes plc lost 2.5% today alone. Check out the last year in its chart.

The S&P 500 is down about the same so far today as well. The stock market has been all over the place the past couple of months so it's likely related to that more then anything else.

Zenify

AlmightyCushion wrote: »

The S&P 500 is down about the same so far today as well. The stock market has been all over the place the past couple of months so it's likely related to that more then anything else.

Have a look at the S&P 500, Nasdaq etc. charts year to date. They were all booming at that time. They all dropped in October.

AlmightyCushion

Zenify wrote: »

Have a look at the S&P 500, Nasdaq etc. charts year to date. They were all booming at that time. They all dropped in October.

And the iseq has been dropping like a stone since around may, same with the FTSE.

Zenify

AlmightyCushion wrote: »

And the iseq has been dropping like a stone since around may, same with the FTSE.

That's probably all Brexit related then...

matsy1

Brexit, Trump. Every bar fly is whispering about a recession coming. FTB'S are afraid of making the mistake so many did in the 00's.

mkdon

matsy1 wrote: »

Brexit, Trump. Every bar fly is whispering about a recession coming. FTB'S are afraid of making the mistake so many did in the 00's.

how do you make out brexit is going to cause housing crash? and what about trump?

AlmightyCushion

mkdon wrote: »

how do you make out brexit is going to cause housing crash? and what about trump?

Both are a risk to the economy. Brexit is a direct risk to the Irish economy and a trade war is a risk to the global economy. If the economy takes a hit then it could lead to job losses/emigration which would impact property prices and rental yield.

mkdon

AlmightyCushion wrote: »

Both are a risk to the economy. Brexit is a direct risk to the Irish economy and a trade war is a risk to the global economy. If the economy takes a hit then it could lead to job losses/emigration which would impact property prices and rental yield.

Brexit is bringing jobs to Irish shores from UK Dublin is booming and predicted to do so for the next few years. The shortage in housing and increase in population and immigration and jobs has meant prices will only go up in 2019

Moonjet

mkdon wrote: »

Brexit is bringing jobs to Irish shores from UK Dublin is booming and predicted to do so for the next few years. The shortage in housing and increase in population and immigration and jobs has meant prices will only go up in 2019

Agree 100%.
People are desperate and see Brexit/Trump as lifelines that will return Irish property prices to affordable levels. It's not going to happen. A seemingly infinite series of mistakes and poor decision making by successive governments has resulted in our property market resting firmly in the hands of private developers, landowners and international investors. The markets do not care for human emotions like compassion. They are driven by 1 thing only and that is profit. 10000 homeless, 20000 homeless, nobody homeless - it doesn't make a difference to them. I can see the situation getting a lot worse before it gets better.

Zenify

mkdon wrote: »

Brexit is bringing jobs to Irish shores from UK Dublin is booming and predicted to do so for the next few years. The shortage in housing and increase in population and immigration and jobs has meant prices will only go up in 2019

Brexit was brought into the discussion because the property developers share prices are in freefall since August. That was when Brexit statered to look very serious. If it looked positive for house prices and demand in Ireland would their share price not have increased?

Bob24

Zenify wrote: »

Brexit was brought into the discussion because the property developers share prices are in freefall since August. That was when Brexit statered to look very serious. If it looked positive for house prices and demand in Ireland would their share price not have increased?

I would call anyone who are claiming they have a good idea of the actual impact Brexit will have on the Irish economy a charlatan, regardless of them predicting a positive or a negative impact. Truth is, with no deal signed, no one even knows yet what Brexit actually is, and what it means in terms of custom union. Even if we knew, predicting the consequences would be a very hard game to play as there area lot of factors involved, but without knowing it’s just speculation based on many unproven assumptions.

Now, based on that I really wouldn’t draw any conclusion on how Brexit will impact our property market this year (or next). I just consider it a big unknown with possible (but not guaranteed) impact which could be either positive or negative. This uncertainty is not good for investors though, so this could be part of what is scaring some of them away from Irish developers. But I think it would be quite a stretch to say investors are pulling off from developers because they are necessarily expecting negative impact of Brexit on our property market.

dor843088

A few people here think prices can't possibly go down. I'm sure I heard that a few years back.

Cyrus

dor843088 wrote: »

A few people here think prices can't possibly go down. I'm sure I heard that a few years back.

its unlikely that they will, what evidence do you have to suggest they will barring well it happened in 2008-2012?

cnocbui

dor843088 wrote: »

A few people here think prices can't possibly go down. I'm sure I heard that a few years back.

I don't think the cost of houses can fall below their intrinsic construction costs and remain there for long.

I often think these 'Property Market' threads should be prefixed with 'Dublin'.

dor843088

Cyrus wrote: »

its unlikely that they will, what evidence do you have to suggest they will barring well it happened in 2008-2012?

Iv no evidence I'm not making any prediction. I'm a home owner i don't want to see my asset go down in value. But there are a lot of risks that it could. Lots of factors could cause a downturn in the economy.

Cyrus

dor843088 wrote: »

Iv no evidence I'm not making any prediction. I'm a home owner i don't want to see my asset go down in value. But there are a lot of risks that it could. Lots of factors could cause a downturn in the economy.

its a place to live its not an asset as such, what its worth isnt that relevant if it meets your needs and you can afford it.

Sleepy

I'd wager any slowdown since the summer probably has more to do with excemptions running out than anything else. The next "true" indicator of where the market is will be the February figures imo.

ELM327

Cyrus wrote: »

its a place to live its not an asset as such, what its worth isnt that relevant if it meets your needs and you can afford it.

It is an asset, absolutely.
A very illiquid one as it requires you to make alternative living arrangements if you want to realise it.

Cyrus wrote: »

its unlikely that they will, what evidence do you have to suggest they will barring well it happened in 2008-2012?

It's unlikely, I agree, and there is little to no evidence supporting the alternative hypothesis.


What the other poster said was that they "cannot" go down, and that is absolutely false too. They can go down, it is just not likely to happen any time soon.

Zenify

Zenify wrote: »

Brexit was brought into the discussion because the property developers share prices are in freefall since August. That was when Brexit statered to look very serious. If it looked positive for house prices and demand in Ireland would their share price not have increased?

The stock market is fairly irrational. That accepted (or not), house prices aren't at all aligned with developers share prices (much of the stock is already in existence and occupied) ......... have house prices dropped in line with the share prices ? No.

UsBus

Cyrus wrote: »

its unlikely that they will, what evidence do you have to suggest they will barring well it happened in 2008-2012?

I know of one auctioneer who has dropped over 10 of the houses on his books. This is not Dublin so quiet a high percentage of stock to be reduced. There is nothing moving the last couple of months. I am trying to buy at the moment & I've seen a number of properties come up for sale recently which were advertised over 6 months to a year ago. Either they were taken off the market or fell through, a long time for a sale to be held up.
I'm waiting till Feb - march now to buy. Will have a clearer picture of where Brexit is going.

UsBus

UsBus wrote: »

....... This is not Dublin....................
I'm waiting till Feb - march now to buy. Will have a clearer picture of where Brexit is going.

What do you think Brexit will have to do with prices outside of Dublin?
I'd love to see the detail.

ELM327

UsBus wrote: »

I know of one auctioneer who has dropped over 10 of the houses on his books. This is not Dublin so quiet a high percentage of stock to be reduced. There is nothing moving the last couple of months. I am trying to buy at the moment & I've seen a number of properties come up for sale recently which were advertised over 6 months to a year ago. Either they were taken off the market or fell through, a long time for a sale to be held up.
I'm waiting till Feb - march now to buy. Will have a clearer picture of where Brexit is going.

Causation does not equate to correlation though.
An alternate hypothesis to the above is that the banks are finicky with mortgages these days, and it's a long process. If a house took 6 months at sale agree and then fell through, it's likely that there is a chain affected and 1 sale incomplete can actually impact 3-6+ houses.

Cyrus

UsBus wrote: »

I know of one auctioneer who has dropped over 10 of the houses on his books. This is not Dublin so quiet a high percentage of stock to be reduced. There is nothing moving the last couple of months. I am trying to buy at the moment & I've seen a number of properties come up for sale recently which were advertised over 6 months to a year ago. Either they were taken off the market or fell through, a long time for a sale to be held up.
I'm waiting till Feb - march now to buy. Will have a clearer picture of where Brexit is going.

sure but these are anecdotes, we have hard evidence on prices achieved and thats the only thing that really matters.

Estate agents will always be ahead of prices, they will rush to increase them when they are rising, eventually they will be ahead of the market and have to come back.

Moonjet

Meanwhile the foreign investors are going full steam ahead into Irish property.

Foreign investors rush to cash in on our housing crisis
Spiralling rents mean Dublin is now the third-most attractive city in Europe for corporate landlords

https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/foreign-investors-rush-to-cash-in-on-our-housing-crisis-37596520.html

"There is a housing shortage or lack of social and affordable housing in every major city across Europe," she said.

"In any market when there is a shortage of supply, prices go up. International institutional investors are looking at residential type investment as somewhere where they can get a reasonable return."

Only Lisbon and Berlin were deemed more attractive than Dublin, with London down to 29th because of uncertainty over Brexit.

Dublin was also deemed a good place for investors because of the state of the commercial property market.

Offices are much sought after because of demand from tech firms, as well as the influx of companies caused by the Brexit vote.

...

Assuming a growth rate of around 25pc per annum in the short term for completions, it would take until 2021 for supply to meet the estimated demand of around 35,000 units per annum.

British real estate firm buys student accommodation development in Cork

https://www.independent.ie/business/commercial-property/british-real-estate-firm-buys-student-accommodation-development-in-cork-37596898.html

London-based Round Hill, together with NBK Capital, an investment company in the Middle East, will immediately proceed to construct a mixed-use project on the site, which will include 145 purpose-built student accommodation beds and facilities.

It is understood the development cost of the Cork project is approximately €19m.

The two companies also plan on acquiring and developing purpose-built student accommodation schemes in Cork, Dublin and Galway, that will deliver in excess of 1,200 beds. The cost of these developments is understood to be around €80m.

Round Hill is among the latest in a wave of companies, funds and so-called real estate investment trusts (REITS) that are radically changing Ireland's traditional housing market and student accommodation sector by buying or building entire blocks of accommodation to be rented long term.

The company has over €1bn to invest in build-to-rent and student accommodation in Ireland.

John Vaudin, MD Round Hill (Ireland), said: "Thanks to its growing economy, Ireland continues to attract increasing numbers of students, both locally and internationally, and we look forward to playing an integral role as Ireland grows into one of the world’s leading university locations."

As hard as it is for people to stomach, if these trends continue then Irish property prices may rise even further over the next 3 - 5 years.

dor843088

Moonjet wrote: »

Meanwhile the foreign investors are going full steam ahead into Irish property.

Foreign investors rush to cash in on our housing crisis
Spiralling rents mean Dublin is now the third-most attractive city in Europe for corporate landlords

https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/foreign-investors-rush-to-cash-in-on-our-housing-crisis-37596520.html



British real estate firm buys student accommodation development in Cork

https://www.independent.ie/business/commercial-property/british-real-estate-firm-buys-student-accommodation-development-in-cork-37596898.html

Exactly this is not stable home buying we have . Imagine what happens if they rush out just as quick. The carnage would be worse than last time. At least tracker mortgages did some thing to soften the blow for some homeowners . Won't be the case this time . Any shock to our economy and there could be a forest of for sale signs and fire sales on apartment blocks with all this foreign money looking to exit.

Villa05

Moonjet wrote:

Foreign investors rush to cash in on our housing crisis Spiralling rents mean Dublin is now the third-most attractive city in Europe for corporate landlords

It amazes me how a party like FG who pronounce to be pro business cannot or will not enter the property market by entering the build to rent/buy market. Instead we are selling to foreign pension funds to support foreign business and pensioners while we have a housing crisis and a pensions crisis on the way

It really beggars belief that we can let golden opportunities like this escape out of the country

Shocking mismanagement