Property Market 2018

Bluefoam

Bluefoam wrote: »

Sounds like the response of someone who already owns or is in line to inherit a house... how would you feel about the matter if you were approaching retirement age and didn't have a home of your own...

I'd be looking at myself and thinking how the fnck did I get myself in this position and realise that quite likely I have no one to blame but myself. If you are approaching retirement age and didn't buy or have the means to buy in 2010, 2011 etc than there's no point moaning about not being able to buy in the current times of lofty house prices. The beauty of approaching retirement age is that you have 30 / 40 years to prepare for it.

I'm in line to inherit SFA too so your assumption is incorrect.

Bob24

Bluefoam wrote: »

It's all well and good to say that it works well there, but at the moment there are large developments of build to rent at bolands mills, north quays, stillorgan, cherrywood, lucan, point village, naas & these are only the ones I can account for directly... it's happening on a massive scale & when the government announce new house figures, these are included and make up a huge percentage.

And you can add Capital Docks to that list, which is a massive one.

Personally I’ve nothing against buy to let as such as long as it happens on a small scale. But even in a high demand area, if absolutely every single new unit is sold in that way I have a massive issue with it.

Bob24

Augeo wrote: »

I reckon the large developments you mention are being funded in such a way that the Irish tax payer won't be on the hook if they go t*ts up.

You are being very optimistic here ... who else would be footing the bill if the Irish developer or the Irish property management company involved in the exemple I gave were to get caught-up in an economic downturn and/or in a property crash? (Knowing they probably owe a lot of money to Irish banks) Recent history should give us a clue.

Bluefoam

Augeo wrote: »

I'd be looking at myself and thinking how the fnck did I get myself in this position and realise that quite likely I have no one to blame but myself. If you are approaching retirement age and didn't buy or have the means to buy in 2010, 2011 etc than there's no point moaning about not being able to buy in the current times of lofty house prices. The beauty of approaching retirement age is that you have 30 / 40 years to prepare for it.

I'm in line to inherit SFA too so your assumption is incorrect.

Sorry, I don't get your point, please clarify. Are you saying that someone who was too young to buy in 2010/11 and has had the disadvantage of coming out of education during the economic downturn... & now is struggling to pay current high rents, thus struggling to save enough money to pay a high mortgage in the current climate... that they should only blame themselves? That because corporations are buying housing stock on a massive scale and ensuring there is not enough to satisfy other ends of the market, the person who doesn't own a house is at fault? There is another side of this, that there are plenty of people who are already on the property ladder, who are delighted that their properties are accumulating value & they are satisfying their own greed.

awec

The_Conductor wrote: »

According to the REIT prospectus- they seek a minimum 8.5% ROI- preferably 10%- cognisant of the risks associated with letting property on the Irish market. Thus the gross outlay on the unit would be returned in 12-13 years- net more likely 20-22 years.

In a situation such as GCD- where the units average 820k each- this would infer a monthly rent of approx EUR3,400 per unit (which even allowing for the fact that they're to be luxury units in a prime location- seems more than a tad optimistic to me).

In the current year perhaps somewhere between 22-24% of all completions may be going to the build to let market- it would be nice to have the figures- I'm not sure whether there are any bodies keeping an eye on the sector.

This, apparently, is government policy. How or why anyone thinks its a good idea- I don't know..........

Yea, that is a long time to wait for a return and that is assuming rents stay at their current levels for that long.



This seems like a really risky endeavour.

Bluefoam

Bluefoam wrote: »

Sounds like the response of someone who already owns or is in line to inherit a house... how would you feel about the matter if you were approaching retirement age and didn't have a home of your own...

Bluefoam wrote: »

Sorry, I don't get your point, please clarify. Are you saying that someone who was too young to buy in 2010/11 and has had the disadvantage of coming out of education during the economic downturn... & now is struggling to pay current high rents, thus struggling to save enough money to pay a high mortgage in the current climate... that they should only blame themselves? That because corporations are buying housing stock on a massive scale and ensuring there is not enough to satisfy other ends of the market, the person who doesn't own a house is at fault? There is another side of this, that there are plenty of people who are already on the property ladder, who are delighted that their properties are accumulating value & they are satisfying their own greed.

You were on about folk approaching retirement age and now are on about folk too young to buy in 2010/2011 ?

That's called moving the goalposts.

Bob24

Bob24 wrote: »

You are being very optimistic here ... who else would be footing the bill if the Irish developer or the Irish property management company involved in the exemple I gave were to get caught-up in an economic downturn and/or in a property crash? (Knowing they probably owe a lot of money to Irish banks) Recent history should give us a clue.

I wasn't referring to the example you gave. I was referring to the large developments Bluefoam mentioned.

Bluefoam

Augeo wrote: »

You were on about folk approaching retirement age and now are on about folk too young to buy in 2010/2011 ?

That's called moving the goalposts.

I'm talking about the same group of people... Age is a wonderful thing... those who were too young in 2010/11 will eventually reach retirement age & may well suffer as a result of current market conditions. Remember, we're not like other countries (Scandinavian countries come to mind), where they plan socially to look after their elderly...

BTW, thanks for the giant text, but wasn't actually moving any goal posts... I suggest you look past the end of your own nose and consider the wider social implications of the current economical factors rather than how it effects you and your smug satisfaction that you'll be okay.

Bluefoam

Augeo wrote: »

I wasn't referring to the example you gave. I was referring to the large developments Bluefoam mentioned.

I never referenced the Irish tax payer, nor how these projects are being funded.. my concerns relate to the change from a socialised owner occupier housing market to a corporate owned letting environment that aims to squeeze out individual home owners.

Bob24

Augeo wrote: »

I wasn't referring to the example you gave. I was referring to the large developments Bluefoam mentioned.

You’d have to take them individually and explain for each one how the Irish taxpayer is insulated them.

A general statement saying all of these are insulated doesn’t really mean much as cleary a number of them are financed with Irish capital and debt.

Bluefoam

Bluefoam wrote: »

I'm talking about the same group of people... Age is a wonderful thing... those who were too young in 2010/11 will eventually reach retirement age & may well suffer as a result of current market conditions. Remember, we're not like other countries (Scandinavian countries come to mind), where they plan socially to look after their elderly...

...........

Bluefoam wrote: »

Sounds like the response of someone who already owns or is in line to inherit a house... how would you feel about the matter if you were approaching retirement age and didn't have a home of your own...

there is no way the bolded piece refers to young folk, well, no way that's comprehend-able from reading it.

Bob24

Bob24 wrote: »

You’d have to take them individually and explain for each one how the Irish taxpayer is insulated them.

A general statement saying all of these are insulated doesn’t really mean much as cleary a number of them are financed with Irish capital and debt.

Well most of them aren't funded by Irish banks.
I don't see why I need to take them individually when you initally asked me something specific to yoiur example when I had not made any point referring to your example.

The constant complaining and moaning in this topic that some get up to won't change. If property prices fall ye'll still be complaining

Bluefoam

Bluefoam wrote: »

..........

BTW, thanks for the giant text, but wasn't actually moving any goal posts... I suggest you look past the end of your own nose and consider the wider social implications of the current economical factors rather than how it effects you and your smug satisfaction that you'll be okay.

lol, where is my smug satisfaction that I'll be ok?
You know nothing about my financial situation, nor do I about yours.
You mentioned folk "approaching retirement age~" and when I replied to that you then claimed these same folk were too young to buy in 2010/2011. ......... total lunacy.
You follow that up by claiming I'm smug etc, lol.

Bob24

Augeo wrote: »

I don't see why I need to take them individually

You don’t have to detail why you think it’s valid of course, but you made a general statement about many developments with nothing to back it up and without anymore details it carries very little weight.

Also even if it was the case I’m not sure it would be a cause for celebration to demonstrate that most/all major new residential developments in desirable areas are owned by foreign funds and only available to local residents as rented properties.

The_Conductor

Guys- cop the hell on. No more squabbling on-thread.

adriaaaan

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/rate-of-house-price-growth-slows-as-new-homes-make-impact-1.3546849?mode=amp
Thoughts on this? The numbers of houses for sale increasing is interesting adding to an earlier post on this. Perhaps a sign that people are either coming out of negative equity or don't think we are far off a peak

adriaaaan

adriaaaan wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/rate-of-house-price-growth-slows-as-new-homes-make-impact-1.3546849?mode=amp
Thoughts on this? The numbers of houses for sale increasing is interesting adding to an earlier post on this. Perhaps a sign that people are either coming out of negative equity or don't think we are far off a peak

"The number of sales of new homes recorded during the period rose 41 per cent on average, and the value was 8 per cent higher."

... increased supply

adriaaaan

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/commercial-property/mortgage-lending-rules-cool-property-price-rises-says-myhome-ie-1.3550284?mode=amp

And another report from myhome with similar conclusions to sherry Fitz

Bob24

adriaaaan wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/commercial-property/mortgage-lending-rules-cool-property-price-rises-says-myhome-ie-1.3550284?mode=amp

And another report from myhome with similar conclusions to sherry Fitz

Interesting in the MyHome report to see they are (rightly) praising the central bank for not letting lending rules go loose. It is somehow reassuring that mentalities have changed a bit for a website making money on home sales to back measures which lead to capping prices and limiting the amount of capital available to purchase property.

It’s not good news for renters though: “rental inflation in Dublin was 7.8% – still well above the 4% stipulated under the Rent Pressure Zone legislation”.

Baby01032012

Bob24 wrote: »

Interesting in the MyHome report to see they are (rightly) praising the central bank for not letting lending rules go loose. It is somehow reassuring that mentatlities have changed a bit for a website making money on homes sales to back measures which lead to capping prices.

It’s not good news for renters though: “rental inflation in Dublin was 7.8% – still well above the 4% stipulated under the Rent Pressure Zone legislation”.

How do Myhome or Daft make money...it’s based on a fee for advertising not for value of home sales so I doubt they have a particular mentality towards talking up property. I think they are usually quiet balanced as is Ronan Lyons of Daft.

Bob24

Baby01032012 wrote: »

How do Myhome or Daft make money...it’s based on a fee for advertising not for value of home sales so I doubt they have a particular mentality towards talking up property. I think they are usually quiet balanced as is Ronan Lyons of Daft.

They are no developers alright and don’t pocket FTB grants and the likes, but they are still part of an industry which thrives when everyone thinks the only way is up and the general public gets more interested/involved in property. Similarly back in the days we had a lot of journalists/papers cheering for property prices and anything that can push them up, even though you can say the same thing about papers not directly making money from increasing home values.

Creamy Goodness

They’ve a vested interest in property prices. The prices go up, estate agents are more busy, meaning more ads placed, more google ads being seen etc.

Brussels Sprout

Creamy Goodness wrote: »

They’ve a vested interest in property prices. The prices go up, estate agents are more busy, meaning more ads placed, more google ads being seen etc.

When you take a step back and think about it it's kinda mad that the higher the prices get in the market the more movement there is in terms of volume.

cruizer101

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

When you take a step back and think about it it's kinda mad that the higher the prices get in the market the more movement there is in terms of volume.

I think its more the opposite, as a result of more movement (due to easier credit, more supply, etc..) prices will rise

Brussels Sprout

cruizer101 wrote: »

I think its more the opposite, as a result of more movement (due to easier credit, more supply, etc..) prices will rise

Is there actually easier credit for most people though? Outside of some oversubscribed government schemes and Central Bank rule waivers most people are as constrained now in accessing credit then they have been over the past number of years.

cruizer101

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

Is there actually easier credit for most people though? Outside of some oversubscribed government schemes and Central Bank rule waivers most people are as constrained now in accessing credit then they have been over the past number of years.

There isn't excessive credit available in that most people are restricted to x3.5 but there is easier reasonable levels of credit, during the crash banks were not loaning much at all

Bob24

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

Is there actually easier credit for most people though? Outside of some oversubscribed government schemes and Central Bank rule waivers most people are as constrained now in accessing credit then they have been over the past number of years.

The rules are not being relaxed to make it easier to borrow, but as the economy improves more and more people fit within those rules and are able to borrow which increases the total amount of credit available.

Henbabani

A lot of signs said moderation is here.
Hope we'll see some true data from CSO

bluelamp

Henbabani wrote: »

A lot of signs said moderation is here.
Hope we'll see some true data from CSO

It will be interesting to see. There is about 6000 more houses available on daft compared to six months ago, but some of that is obviously seasonal.

FixdePitchmark

7% increase is still high

Of course the % is going to drop at some point.

But they are already mad high - 7 % on a high figure is still serious money.