Property Market 2018

KevinCavan

awec wrote: »

Yes, but someone currently renting can then buy which subsequently reduces the number of people looking for rentals.

This only really works with investment / second properties. PPRs are a zero-sum game.

Every day there are more and more immigrants coming to Ireland to work. It is mostly immigrants viewing rental properties. An Irish person buying a house and coming off the rental market, does nothing to ease pressures within the rental market believe me.

Chopper83

Chopper83 wrote: »

........... I went to see a mortgage adviser last week and the amount they were offering for me to borrow was scary.

What did they offer you in terms of x times salary?
And were they offering or just talkiing about it?

Chopper83

Augeo wrote: »

Chopper83 wrote: »

........... I went to see a mortgage adviser last week and the amount they were offering for me to borrow was scary.

What did they offer you in terms of x times salary?
And were they offering or just talkiing about it?

Approx 5 times joint income, Santander. Mortgage in principle.

5 times joint income is very grim if ye are on normal enough money.
I borrowed slightly over 4 times my income back in 2005 and that was quite enough all considered.

I'd always mention to folk not to stray from the CB loan-to-income (LTI) restrictions/guidance. Personal responsibility shouldn't be forgotten about.

wersal gummage

Chopper83 wrote: »

Approx 5 times joint income, Santander. Mortgage in principle.

Interesting, didn't know Santander were in the Irish mortgage market. What are interest rates like?

Did they just come out and offer you 5 times your combined income with our you even asking for that?

Chopper83

wersal gummage wrote: »

Chopper83 wrote: »

Approx 5 times joint income, Santander. Mortgage in principle.

Interesting, didn't know Santander were in the Irish mortgage market. What are interest rates like?  

Did they just come out and offer you 5 times your combined income with our you even asking for that?

Apologies i'm up North, not sure if they are down south.
Basically they completed an affordability check and the mortgage broker said this is the maximum we'd be able to offer you based on salary and typical outgoings. I was shocked to say the least as we're paying pretty hefty childcare costs but it didn't seem to impact the total amount that much.

Cyrus

Chopper83 wrote: »

Apologies i'm up North, not sure if they are down south.
Basically they completed an affordability check and the mortgage broker said this is the maximum we'd be able to offer you based on salary and typical outgoings. I was shocked to say the least as we're paying pretty hefty childcare costs but it didn't seem to impact the total amount that much.

different market, they dont operate here for mortgages.

frothy mortgages are still available in the UK

Marius34

Chopper83 wrote: »

Apologies i'm up North, not sure if they are down south.
Basically they completed an affordability check and the mortgage broker said this is the maximum we'd be able to offer you based on salary and typical outgoings. I was shocked to say the least as we're paying pretty hefty childcare costs but it didn't seem to impact the total amount that much.

You should have said that you speak about UK, and not IE in the first place. It's 4.5 LTI, with 15% exemption in UK.

The_Conductor

Augeo wrote: »

What did they offer you in terms of x times salary?
And were they offering or just talkiing about it?

BOI - 5 times joint salary AIP- no OT or bonuses considered.
Bit nuts- and very much going the direction of tiger mortgages- though I did have AIP for 7 times joint salary in 2006 (and am so relieved the property I was looking at, at the time, had issues with it- which caused the sale to fall through)...........

Depends very much on the sector you're in- and the reductions for childcare and/or any other outgoings- are significant.

Must invest in an ICB credit report and have a gawk at it.

OwlsZat

Bluefoam wrote: »

Chopper83 wrote: »

Personally think there is a going to be some sort of 'crash' in the next few years, there is bubble in certain areas across Ireland that I don't think is sustainable. I went to see a mortgage adviser last week and the amount they were offering for me to borrow was scary.

Thanks for the advice, please let us know when the crash will be so we can delay our purchasing plans...

They're plenty across Ireland who have spent the last 10 years wishing they didn't buy at stupid prices. The attitude of I had no option but to buy is farcical. 
Buy if you can afford to and aren't concerned what the price is. Alternatively hold off and rent for a few years, wait for the prices to stabilise or crash. It's is your choice, but there is a clear and obvious choice despite your suggestion otherwise.

hots

The_Conductor wrote: »

BOI - 5 times joint salary AIP- no OT or bonuses considered.
Bit nuts- and very much going the direction of tiger mortgages- though I did have AIP for 7 times joint salary in 2006 (and am so relieved the property I was looking at, at the time, had issues with it- which caused the sale to fall through)...........

Depends very much on the sector you're in- and the reductions for childcare and/or any other outgoings- are significant.

Must invest in an ICB credit report and have a gawk at it.

BOI offering 5 times the salary?!

OwlsZat

OwlsZat wrote: »

They're plenty across Ireland who have spent the last 10 years wishing they didn't buy at stupid prices. The attitude of I had no option but to buy is farcical.
Buy if you can afford to and aren't concerned what the price is. Alternatively hold off and rent for a few years, wait for the prices to stabilise or crash. It's is your choice, but there is a clear and obvious choice despite your suggestion otherwise.

Outside of Dublin there's still plenty of value. Where I am a decent apartment's monthly rent would cover a mortgage on a property of 200k. The large majority of people who bought are sitting just fine now.

OwlsZat

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Outside of Dublin there's still plenty of value. Where I am a decent apartment's monthly rent would cover a mortgage on a property of 200k. The large majority of people who bought are sitting just fine now.

I agree despite it being totally different point to the previous poster.

Chopper83

Marius34 wrote: »

Chopper83 wrote: »

Apologies i'm up North, not sure if they are down south.
Basically they completed an affordability check and the mortgage broker said this is the maximum we'd be able to offer you based on salary and typical outgoings. I was shocked to say the least as we're paying pretty hefty childcare costs but it didn't seem to impact the total amount that much.

You should have said that you speak about UK, and not IE in the first place. It's 4.5 LTI, with 15% exemption in UK.

Sorry for pissing in your cornflakes. It's ridiculous regardless of the jurisdiction.

Samuel T. Cogley

adriaaaan wrote: »

Won't rental demand be solved by the literally thousands of apartments being built right now in Dublin city? Supply is a major problem until new apartments are built, and then it isn't a major problem. People need to calm down about the property situation and stop over reacting, but this is Ireland so.

My heart bleeds for landlords yielding 2 grand a month on 2 bed apartments. That pesky government causing them untold hardship as they Scrooge McDuck into a pool of gold coins.

It's going to be so much better when large REITs own all the apartments and they're all let out as luxury city centre apartments. The standards will be so much better, they'll have a gym and a meeting room and a four figure weekly rent.

Cyrus

Chopper83 wrote: »

Sorry for pissing in your cornflakes. It's ridiculous regardless of the jurisdiction.

sure but not a jurisdiction that we are discussing in this thread so the post is misleading

Chopper83

Cyrus wrote: »

Chopper83 wrote: »

Sorry for pissing in your cornflakes. It's ridiculous regardless of the jurisdiction.

sure but not a jurisdiction that we are discussing in this thread so the post is misleading

There have been many references to the UK within this thread, I stated I was up north in my corresponding post and apologised for the sincere confusion. I thought it was an interesting insight regardless of not being South of the border, how wrong eh.

Bob24

Chopper83 wrote: »

There have been many references to the UK within this thread, I stated I was up north in my corresponding post and apologised for the sincere confusion. I thought it was an interesting insight regardless of not being South of the border, how wrong eh.

It quite possibly was an honest mistake, but to be honest, it isn’t a great insight to throw a figure without initially saying it is for the UK in a context where everyone else is clearly talking about the ROI. More like a misleading statement.

The_Conductor

hots wrote: »

BOI offering 5 times the salary?!

For specific permanent posts- in very specific conditions.
Last time round- we were offered 7.5 times gross annual salary by BOI (in 2006- to buy a specific house in Portlaoise)- which seems absolutely crazy- but then again- 5 times is too..........

Arcade_Tryer

Bob24 wrote: »

Mostly agree with that, *but* it is based on an assumption that demand will remain the same or keep rising. An economic downturn (not necessarily as bad as the previous one) could change things very quickly on th demand side, and while no one knows for sure it is not unlikely to happen in the short to medium term.

The balance between supply and demand is so disproportionate right now that that is an outcome nobody needs to worry about.

handlemaster

Chopper83 wrote: »

Personally think there is a going to be some sort of 'crash' in the next few years, there is bubble in certain areas across Ireland that I don't think is sustainable. I went to see a mortgage adviser last week and the amount they were offering for me to borrow was scary.

Of course there will be in a small open economy like ireland where you have an obsession with property this is envitable. ThE cycle is usually ten years. When the US stock market takes a hammering watch the property market after. When will that be ?

obi604

Queried a house today. Good area, decent looking house, semi d. etc

On the market last 2 months for 345k. Queried it today, offer in of 255k.

Interesting.

mad m

Big signs on railings in Ben Dunnes Carlisle gym kimmage saying land for sale, contact bendunne etc, zone 1 residential. Good bit of land around that gym. Will be interesting to see what happens.

Bob24

Arcade_Tryer wrote: »

The balance between supply and demand is so disproportionate right now that that is an outcome nobody needs to worry about.

Someone could have said exactly the same thing in 2007, yet within a few months the market moved from massive undersupply to massive oversupply.

I am not saying it will happen again for sure and i don’t know about worrying about it (maybe some people should), but in any case it would be a big mistake not to see it as a possible outcome (and to some extend solution) for the current housing crisis.

adriaaaan

The_Conductor wrote: »

For specific permanent posts- in very specific conditions.
Last time round- we were offered 7.5 times gross annual salary by BOI (in 2006- to buy a specific house in Portlaoise)- which seems absolutely crazy- but then again- 5 times is too..........

This is certainly not true and it's misleading to be posting it here where people are looking for genuine advice. As of April 2018 BOI have no exemptions to LTI rules left according to multiple contacts I've had with them since then, I'm a long time customer with perfect credit record decent salary etc.
There were no LTI limits during the tiger, hence anecdotally people borrowing 10x salaries .

Eric Cartman

adriaaaan wrote: »

Won't rental demand be solved by the literally thousands of apartments being built right now in Dublin city? Supply is a major problem until new apartments are built, and then it isn't a major problem. People need to calm down about the property situation and stop over reacting, but this is Ireland so.

My heart bleeds for landlords yielding 2 grand a month on 2 bed apartments. That pesky government causing them untold hardship as they Scrooge McDuck into a pool of gold coins.

Hahahahahahahhahahahaha
Do you seriously still think that way after reading this forum ? you'd have more chance making money backing a good horse these days.

Mickiemcfist

Eric Cartman wrote: »

Hahahahahahahhahahahaha
Do you seriously still think that way after reading this forum ? you'd have more chance making money backing a good horse these days.

As someone with a somewhat middle ground opinion of the profitability of being a landlord, it's main redeeming feature is access to credit & at a very low rate. It gives a normal joe Bloggs access to a high value investment, which he wouldn't have if he wanted to invest in stocks or pretty much any other investment.

Arcade_Tryer

Bob24 wrote: »

Someone could have said exactly the same thing in 2007, yet within a few months the market moved from massive undersupply to massive oversupply.

I am not saying it will happen again for sure and i don’t know about worrying about it (maybe some people should), but in any case it would be a big mistake not to see it as a possible outcome (and to some extend solution) for the current housing crisis.

Yes, but the supply was in the wrong places. Plus, the strength of the economy this time round is not as a result of a construction boom fuelled by easy credit. It's entirely different, though there are still other threats. So it's not a similar scenario to 2007 at all really. There is no good news for renters here at all.

awec

Eric Cartman wrote: »

Hahahahahahahhahahahaha
Do you seriously still think that way after reading this forum ? you'd have more chance making money backing a good horse these days.

I doubt many horses deliver 6 figure sums when it comes time to cash in.

Landlords aren't making a cash profit month-to-month, but they are getting someone else to pay off a large chunk (if not all) of the payments toward acquiring an asset that medium-to-long-term will deliver them a very healthy return.

Bob24

Arcade_Tryer wrote: »

Yes, but the supply was in the wrong places. Plus, the strength of the economy this time round is not as a result of a construction boom fuelled by easy credit. It's entirely different, though there are still other threats. So it's not a similar scenario to 2007 at all really. There is no good news for renters here at all.

There are differences, but an economic downturn causing a large drop in demand would have exactly the same result (negative net immigration figures combined to a backlog of pending construction projects can quickly cause oversupply including in high demand areas where people actually want to live). The differences you mentioned don't alter that particular mechanism. A future economic downturn might be caused by different factors and be less pronounced that last time (or even more pronounced for a reason we don't know yet), but it would still have the same type of effects on demand for property.