Property Market 2018

OwlsZat

The astronomical US national debt, the flattening of the US yield curve, and the continuing trade wars between the US and all it's major trading partners suggests all is not going quite so well across the pond.

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OwlsZat wrote: »

The astronomical US national debt, the flattening of the US yield curve, and the continuing trade wars between the US and all it's major trading partners suggests all is not going quite so well across the pond.

If the US economy crashed or took a turn, I'd imagine jobs may be lost here, which may impact house prices. Is there anything else I'm missing?

handlemaster

Pheonix10 wrote: »

OwlsZat wrote: »

The astronomical US national debt, the flattening of the US yield curve, and the continuing trade wars between the US and all it's major trading partners suggests all is not going quite so well across the pond.

If the US economy crashed or took a turn, I'd imagine jobs may be lost here, which may impact house prices. Is there anything else I'm missing?

Yes the detail

Cuddlesworth

OwlsZat wrote: »

The astronomical US national debt

Is brought up a lot and its a moot point really. Their debt is in dollars, they make the dollars. It will probably take a few quarters before the Russian party's policy's kick in.

Arthur Daley

Cuddlesworth wrote: »

Is brought up a lot and its a moot point really. Their debt is in dollars, they make the dollars.

Ah, well that's alright then.

Zenify

Any thoughts?

The End of the Global Housing Boom

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-07-31/are-house-prices-falling-from-sydney-to-new-york

Arthur Daley

Zenify wrote: »

Any thoughts?

The End of the Global Housing Boom

Nobody tell Paddy?

Zenify

"That could have wider implications because the world’s wealthy have been buying homes on multiple continents, meaning a downturn in one country could now pose more of a threat to markets elsewhere, according to the International Monetary Fund."

Very interesting point. Especially with the amount of foreign investment here.

hots

Zenify wrote: »

Any thoughts?

The End of the Global Housing Boom

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-07-31/are-house-prices-falling-from-sydney-to-new-york

Badly written article with no like-for-like stats for each city. Would be much more useful with some raw data side by side with the stats they've chosen to highlight. I would imagine it's true for lots of cities though, there has been a good few years of global recovery now, plateauing would to be expected.

Pussyhands

Pussyhands wrote: »

some of us are building up substantial funds. ;-)

You'd want to have really substantial funds if you go looking for a mortgage on €40k/annum.

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=107606615&postcount=221

Cyrus

Augeo wrote: »

You'd want to have really substantial funds if you go looking for a mortgage on €40k/annum.

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=107606615&postcount=221

Ouch

Pussyhands

Augeo wrote: »

You'd want to have really substantial funds if you go looking for a mortgage on €40k/annum.

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=107606615&postcount=221

I was only using the figures as an example.

As i said there, I have 60k in the bank and I'm saving about 20k a year right now.

q85dw7osi4lebg

Pussyhands wrote: »

I was only using the figures as an example.

As i said there, I have 60k in the bank and I'm saving about 20k a year right now.

Earning 31k a year net, saving 20k of that.

Well on your way to riches. Teach me your ways!

handlemaster

Eleanor Howling Anorexic wrote: »

Pussyhands wrote: »

I was only using the figures as an example.

As i said there, I have 60k in the bank and I'm saving about 20k a year right now.

Earning 31k a year net, saving 20k of that.

Well on your way to riches. Teach me your ways!

Popcorn guy must be around

handlemaster

Eleanor Howling Anorexic wrote: »

Pussyhands wrote: »

I was only using the figures as an example.

As i said there, I have 60k in the bank and I'm saving about 20k a year right now.

Earning 31k a year net, saving 20k of that.

Well on your way to riches. Teach me your ways!

Popcorn guy must be around

Bob24

Eleanor Howling Anorexic wrote: »

Earning 31k a year net, saving 20k of that.

Well on your way to riches. Teach me your ways!

Easily doable for someone who has free/cheap accommodation (staying for free with relatives or enjoying very cheap rent for whatever reason).

Pussyhands

Bob24 wrote: »

Easily doable for someone who has free/cheap accommodation (staying for free with relatives or enjoying very cheap rent for whatever reason).

Rent is below 300 a month.

smurgen

Wouldn't be interested in buying a house now.risks are too high and variables too unknown.a hard brexit could see a sharp impact in the irish economy and house prices in my opinion.better to stay cash rich and flexible if possible.mobility is more important to me.

handlemaster

smurgen wrote: »

Wouldn't be interested in buying a house now.risks are too high and variables too unknown.a hard brexit could see a sharp impact in the irish economy and house prices in my opinion.better to stay cash rich and flexible if possible.mobility is more important to me.

No kids or family commitment with you so. Others cant be like that need security

utmbuilder

smurgen wrote: »

Wouldn't be interested in buying a house now.risks are too high and variables too unknown.a hard brexit could see a sharp impact in the irish economy and house prices in my opinion.better to stay cash rich and flexible if possible.mobility is more important to me.

When you factor in the cost of renting compared to a mortgage, you maybe be looking at an extra 50k over 5 years

then quantify the mortgage repayments off having a roof over your head at retirement , or entering into any fair deal schemes if you ever need a nursing home , or even being mortgage free it can make a bit more sense

If your in it to flip a house in 3 years your right may not be a good time as you missed the boat.

But if you need a home there is a lot of value

The_Conductor

utmbuilder wrote: »

When you factor in the cost of renting compared to a mortgage, you maybe be looking at an extra 50k over 5 years

then quantify the mortgage repayments off having a roof over your head at retirement , or entering into any fair deal schemes if you ever need a nursing home , or even being mortgage free it can make a bit more sense

If your in it to flip a house in 3 years your right may not be a good time as you missed the boat.

But if you need a home there is a lot of value

If you factor that the first 50k in mortgage repayments only reduces the principal outstanding on the mortgage by, on average 4,400 (at current discounted rates- if the rates go up- the principal is reduced by even less). This is the pertinent amount- and not the gross amount spent on rent.

House prices are already doing funny things particularly in the Dublin area- but rapidly radiating outwards- Kildare and Meath developments are now showing similar behaviours.

Its entirely at the OPs discretion whether or not it makes sense for him/her to buy a property now. If they are looking at it as a long term investment that they intend to live in- its an entirely different proposition- to looking at what might happen over 4-5 years with prices and/or tenants if they don't propose to live in it themselves.

Its not a good time to sit down and try and ponder the various variables right now- there are too many balls up in the air.

titan18

Augeo wrote: »

You'd want to have really substantial funds if you go looking for a mortgage on €40k/annum.

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=107606615&postcount=221

What would someone be looking at as needing in a deposit to get a house nowadays earning that much? I'd imagine 40k is around an average wage for people in permanent roles, so just out of interest (it is just under what I'm earning too)

Creamy Goodness

titan18 wrote: »

What would someone be looking at as needing in a deposit to get a house nowadays earning that much? I'd imagine 40k is around an average wage for people in permanent roles, so just out of interest (it is just under what I'm earning too)

The quick version:

40,000 * 3.5 = 140,000 is the max mortgage you’ll get unless you would qualify for an exemption which are rare from reading on here here days.

If you wanted to buy a house at say the average price (plucked this from a thejournal.ie article) at €230,000.

So that means a deposit of 90,000. Of course this example requires more than 20% deposit for second hand houses and 10% for new builds.

*edit* forgot to declare the bank will want to see funds to pay for solicitors/stamp duty/vaulation reports etc too, so you'll need 5,000-7,000k for this obviously depending on the price of the house for stamp duty at 1%

Bob24

The_Conductor wrote: »

If you factor that the first 50k in mortgage repayments only reduces the principal outstanding on the mortgage by, on average 4,400 (at current discounted rates- if the rates go up- the principal is reduced by even less). This is the pertinent amount- and not the gross amount spent on rent.

It is the pertinent amount in our exemple indeed, but IMO anyone who takes up a mortgage whereby over 90% of their repayments go towards interests in the first years is making a mistake in the first place regardless of rent or property prices. Should be 70% at most, and if you change the exemple for a more prudent borrower who will spend 50 to 70% of their monthly repayments in interests during those years, then the principle would be reduced by 15000 to 25000 which make the purchase more attractive compared to the less prudent borrower.

Baby01032012

Creamy Goodness wrote: »

The quick version:

40000 * 3.5 = 140000 is the max mortgage you’ll get unless you would qualify for an exemption which are rare from reading on here here days.

If you wanted to buy a house at say the average price (plucked this from a thejournal.ie article) at €230000.

So that means a deposit of 90000. Of course this example requires more than 20% deposit for second hand houses and 10% for new builds.

It’s not 20% for second hand houses, it’s same as new builds. It’s 20% if you're trading up or down ie not first time buyer. And 30% for investors.

Creamy Goodness

Baby01032012 wrote: »

It’s not 20% for second hand houses, it’s same as new builds. It’s 20% if you're trading up or down ie not first time buyer. And 30% for investors.

ah yes of course I got my wires crossed

10% first-time buyer, with max of 5% coming from help to buy (if applicable).
20% non-first-time buyer.
30% investors (I discounted this as an investor will probably be earning more than 40k).

for the example I gave though you'll been over 20% to make up the deficit anyways.

Zenify

The_Conductor wrote: »

House prices are already doing funny things particularly in the Dublin area- but rapidly radiating outwards- Kildare and Meath developments are now showing similar behaviours.

What are these funny things you speak of?

titan18

titan18 wrote: »

What would someone be looking at as needing in a deposit to get a house nowadays earning that much? I'd imagine 40k is around an average wage for people in permanent roles, so just out of interest (it is just under what I'm earning too)

Depends on where you want to buy
The €140k mortgage along with a €15k deposit would buy property in much of the country but not in the major cities.
I suppose much of the homes being bought in the last few decades are being bought by couples and not individuals. Especially for folk on average wages.

titan18

Augeo wrote: »

Depends on where you want to buy
The €140k mortgage along with a €15k deposit would buy property in much of the country but not in the major cities.
I suppose much of the homes being bought in the last few decades are being bought by couples and not individuals. Especially for folk on average wages.

Ya, looking at Cork, prices are creeping up to close to 300k for decent areas, if not more than that, so you'd be looking at needing 160k as a deposit and that's not including any other costs in buying the house and moving in.

A couple earning 40k each though would get a mortgage of 280k and then have a deposit at 10% giving 308k, so way more achievable. You'd want to be getting 70k as a single person to have a shot really.

aloooof

The_Conductor wrote: »

If you factor that the first 50k in mortgage repayments only reduces the principal outstanding on the mortgage by, on average 4,400 (at current discounted rates- if the rates go up- the principal is reduced by even less). This is the pertinent amount- and not the gross amount spent on rent.

I'd be interested in how you came to the 4,400 figure? I'm planning on overpaying, must break out a spreadsheet to see how this will affect our principal, but even without that, I'd have expected far more than 4,400 coming off the principal over 5 years.