Property Market 2018

Cuddlesworth

titan18 wrote: »

A couple earning 40k each though would get a mortgage of 280k and then have a deposit at 10% giving 308k, so way more achievable. You'd want to be getting 70k as a single person to have a shot really.

Even then, a couple earning 40k each vs person earning 80k, the couple have 10k more a year in net income.

cruizer101

aloooof wrote: »

The_Conductor wrote:

If you factor that the first 50k in mortgage repayments only reduces the principal outstanding on the mortgage by, on average 4,400 (at current discounted rates- if the rates go up- the principal is reduced by even less). This is the pertinent amount- and not the gross amount spent on rent.

I'd be interested in how you came to the 4,400 figure? I'm planning on overpaying, must break out a spreadsheet to see how this will affect our principal, but even without that, I'd have expected far more than 4,400 coming off the principal over 5 years.

Yeah I have to agree unless there is some mixup on what you mean 50k will go a lot further than 4.4k on the principal. I've shared a mortgage spreadsheet below. 300k 30 years at 3% (there are better rates but lets go with 3%). Repayments 1264, 50k is about 40 payments, after 50 payment principal is down to 272,617.82, thats 28k paid off the mortgage.
Thats over half the 50k, long way off 4,400.

Even at 4% 50k of payments is down to 284,465.84 principal.
Or 4% on 400k 50k of payments will give 384,374.15 principal left.
In both cases well over the 4,400 gone off the principal.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/139aKMafhpTASmS45pbFCWAYnSAkgz46l-poxhuI5xrI/edit?usp=sharing

mick2311

aloooof wrote: »

I'd be interested in how you came to the 4,400 figure? I'm planning on overpaying, must break out a spreadsheet to see how this will affect our principal, but even without that, I'd have expected far more than 4,400 coming off the principal over 5 years.

It seems completely made up i did a quick calculation and borrowing 300,000 over 35 (max term so slowest possible repayment of capital). And this implies a repayment off 1155 so will take 43 months to spend 50K. In that period the capital balance will be reduced by 18.5K

AlmightyCushion

mick2311 wrote: »

It seems completely made up i did a quick calculation and borrowing 300,000 over 35 (max term so slowest possible repayment of capital). And this implies a repayment off 1155 so will take 43 months to spend 50K. In that period the capital balance will be reduced by 18.5K

I tried 500,000 over 35 years at 5% and even then after 20 payments of 2523.44 a month (so slightly over 50,000) you'd still have paid off over 9,000 off the principle. The figure is definitely made up.

Bob24

June CSO figures: https://cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-rppi/residentialpropertypriceindexjune2018/

National month to month growth is 1.1%.

zl1whqvjs75cdy

Bob24 wrote: »

June CSO figures: https://cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-rppi/residentialpropertypriceindexjune2018/

National month to month growth is 1.1%.

Tallies with the Irish times report today saying up 12 % year on year.

draiochtanois

This post has been deleted.

zl1whqvjs75cdy

draiochtanois wrote: »

Their source was that CSO release:

"Residential property prices rise by 12.0% in the year to June"

Makes sense

UsBus

Just been offered approval for a 30 year mortgage. I'll be 41 in six months time..ðŸ˜

The amount is nominal enough so they must be thinking they'll grease me over the whole term..

In 30 years I'll hardly be able to raise a smile nevermind a monthly mortgage payment..

The_Conductor

Bob24 wrote: »

June CSO figures: https://cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-rppi/residentialpropertypriceindexjune2018/

National month to month growth is 1.1%.

Have a look at the breakdown!
BMW region- up over 30%- South Dublin up 4.9%........

Dublin has slowed right down- the areas immediately around Dublin are beginning to follow suit- and when you get out of the greater Dublin area- its complete and utter mayhem........

Monthly figures are also bearing this out- with falls in some Dublin areas- versus roaring sales price rises in the midlands and border areas.........

sightband

UsBus wrote: »

Just been offered approval for a 30 year mortgage. I'll be 41 in six months time..ðŸ˜

The amount is nominal enough so they must be thinking they'll grease me over the whole term..

In 30 years I'll hardly be able to raise a smile nevermind a monthly mortgage payment..

are you pensionable? more to the point public service?

is it a joint mortgage?

whatever76

UsBus wrote: »

Just been offered approval for a 30 year mortgage. I'll be 41 in six months time..ðŸ˜

The amount is nominal enough so they must be thinking they'll grease me over the whole term..

In 30 years I'll hardly be able to raise a smile nevermind a monthly mortgage payment..

I know - its mad isn't it ? 42 this year and going for a single FTB mortgage got offered 27 or something like that - I was really surprised … Imgoing for 20 year though and hope to reduce again in a few years - I am not in a job right now where I think ill be able to sustain a ~1,ooo PM mortgage at 60 - so went reduced years - whether that was right or not I don't know but I feel better with the slightly shorter years esp as work in fickle private sector

Bob24

The_Conductor wrote: »

Have a look at the breakdown!
BMW region- up over 30%- South Dublin up 4.9%........

Dublin has slowed right down- the areas immediately around Dublin are beginning to follow suit- and when you get out of the greater Dublin area- its complete and utter mayhem........

Monthly figures are also bearing this out- with falls in some Dublin areas- versus roaring sales price rises in the midlands and border areas.........

Dublin City is up 12% and Dublin apartment are up 12.8%. Basically it is only houses in SCD which are distinctively cooling off for now.

Also the index for Dublin overall which was stalling in March has been rising again in April/May/June.

So I see a slowdown for more expensive properties, but a complete and utter mayhem?

The_Conductor

Bob24 wrote: »

Dublin City is up 12% and Dublin apartment are up 12.8%. Basically it is only houses in SCD which are distinctively cooling off for now.

Also the index for Dublin overall which was stalling in March has been rising again in April/May/June.

So I see a slowdown for more expensive properties, but a complete and utter mayhem?

The mayhem- is particularly pronounced in the border counties.

One figure I don't think anyone is measuring- is the changes in prices in the different phases of developments (think West Dublin etc). We're not looking at South Dublin prices- however, we're at 5% for two phases of an ongoing Lucan development, 6 months apart- and they're not selling. Going further out- same story at Easton in Leixlip, and across from Tesco in Maynooth........

I.e. price increases have slowed- to nil in some instances- and despite obvious constraints in the market- there *is* supply out there- however, affordability- and not just in the context of South Dublin- is rapidly becoming the bigger issue (radiating out from Dublin- esp. when you look at subsequent phases to pre-existing developments- i.e. where you have an established yardstick to use..............)

Looking at different areas- the breakdown of property types- differs markedly- which may be one factor in different sales prices- however, rapidly- affordability is the bigger issue.

zl1whqvjs75cdy

The_Conductor wrote: »

Have a look at the breakdown!
BMW region- up over 30%- South Dublin up 4.9%........

Dublin has slowed right down- the areas immediately around Dublin are beginning to follow suit- and when you get out of the greater Dublin area- its complete and utter mayhem........

Monthly figures are also bearing this out- with falls in some Dublin areas- versus roaring sales price rises in the midlands and border areas.........

BMW region?

The_Conductor

donkeyoaty0099 wrote: »

BMW region?

Border/Midlands/West........

UsBus

sightband wrote: »

are you pensionable? more to the point public service?

is it a joint mortgage?

Job is in private service. Have a pension from previous employer, recently started paying into one with my current job as am only just permanent now. I'm a single applicant. The amount I'm borrowing is not a lot, have about 80k deposit. I intend to pay mortgage in less than 15 years though..

OwlsZat

The_Conductor wrote: »

We're not looking at South Dublin prices- however, we're at 5% for two phases of an ongoing Lucan development, 6 months apart- and they're not selling. Going further out- same story at Easton in Leixlip, and across from Tesco in Maynooth........

The Eaton development has a sign up saying sold?

Sorry see they are all still up on daft, all types. They are overpriced tbh.

Cyrus

Interesting article nothing new but highlights its really an east west divide not north south

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/social-affairs/dublin-s-true-social-divide-is-revealed-by-housing-map-1.3556676

Shedite27

UsBus wrote: »

Just been offered approval for a 30 year mortgage. I'll be 41 in six months time..ðŸ˜

The amount is nominal enough so they must be thinking they'll grease me over the whole term..

In 30 years I'll hardly be able to raise a smile nevermind a monthly mortgage payment..

[QUOTE=UsBus;107788694The amount I'm borrowing is not a lot, have about 80k deposit. I intend to pay mortgage in less than 15 years though..[/QUOTE]
The banks obviously can see this too, and are assuming you'll be sensible enough to pay it off before you retire.

Assetbacked

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/average-rents-reach-new-all-time-high-of-1-304-per-month-1.3598655?mode=amp

Average rents in the country at an all time record high. Average rent in Dublin now approximately €1900.

If Dublin is to become affordable for renters, the amount of dwellings inside the M50 needs to be doubled, according to the author of the report.

Unless that €1900 figure gets halved then there are a couple of younger generations who will be living with minimal savings for a big chunk of their adult lives. This will undoubtedly lead to the development of social problems and at least an interesting political climate.

honeybear

UsBus wrote: »

Just been offered approval for a 30 year mortgage. I'll be 41 in six months time..ðŸ˜

The amount is nominal enough so they must be thinking they'll grease me over the whole term..

In 30 years I'll hardly be able to raise a smile nevermind a monthly mortgage payment..

Similar situation. Offered 79k over 27 years (I’m 43!) with BOI. I have good savings and have a blemish free banking record. I needed to show regular savings (I build up and then fix). A real eye opener

The_Conductor

I'm guessing that this is as per the roadmap for increasing the retirement age over the next 20 years- progressively to 70...........?

zl1whqvjs75cdy

The_Conductor wrote: »

I'm guessing that this is as per the roadmap for increasing the retirement age over the next 20 years- progressively to 70...........?

I would say 70 is optimistic. 73 or 74 maybe. Traditional pensions are based on living roughly 10 years after you retire. Average life expectancy is 83 (I think) so 73 would be a good number

The_Conductor

donkeyoaty0099 wrote: »

I would say 70 is optimistic. 73 or 74 maybe. Traditional pensions are based on living roughly 10 years after you retire. Average life expectancy is 83 (I think) so 73 would be a good number

:(:(:mad::mad::mad:

Samuel T. Cogley

The_Conductor wrote: »

:(:(:mad::mad::mad:

Don't worry we'll all be property millionaires! :pac:

zl1whqvjs75cdy

Samuel T. Cogley wrote: »

Don't worry we'll all be property millionaires! :pac:

Or dead. Either way don't worry about it

z0oT

I don't know how anyone would be comfortable with a mortgage term that goes up to them being 70 or even 65.

Although I guess in some areas in Dublin, there's probably no choice to take out the maximum term possible if you want your own place there, but surely it can't be worth paying out until you're 65 or 70?

Assuming it all works out, my wife and I will have a 15 year mortgage term. Having worked it out with some lump sum overpayments, we'll probably be able to pull it back to probably 13 years, maybe even 12. That would have us mortgage free in our early to mid 40's.

To be truthful I wouldn't really be happy with a term of 20 years or more and I'm 30.

Cyrus

z0oT wrote: »

I don't know how anyone would be comfortable with a mortgage term that goes up to them being 70 or even 65.

Although I guess in some areas in Dublin, there's probably no choice to take out the maximum term possible if you want your own place there, but surely it can't be worth paying out until you're 65 or 70?

Assuming it all works out, my wife and I will have a 15 year mortgage term. Having worked it out with some lump sum overpayments, we'll probably be able to pull it back to probably 13 years, maybe even 12. That would have us mortgage free in our early to mid 40's.

To be truthful I wouldn't really be happy with a term of 20 years or more and I'm 30.

all depends on the size of your mortgage though doesnt it

Bubbaclaus

z0oT wrote: »

I don't know how anyone would be comfortable with a mortgage term that goes up to them being 70 or even 65.

Although I guess in some areas in Dublin, there's probably no choice to take out the maximum term possible if you want your own place there, but surely it can't be worth paying out until you're 65 or 70?

Assuming it all works out, my wife and I will have a 15 year mortgage term. Having worked it out with some lump sum overpayments, we'll probably be able to pull it back to probably 13 years, maybe even 12. That would have us mortgage free in our early to mid 40's.

To be truthful I wouldn't really be happy with a term of 20 years or more and I'm 30.

Should always try and get the longest mortgage possible and then overpay it. That way if you ever unexpectedly fall on hard times you have a lot smaller monthly requirement than a short term mortgage.