Property Market 2018

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Cyrus wrote: »

all depends on the size of your mortgage though doesnt it

And how much you earn

z0oT

Bubbaclaus wrote: »

Should always try and get the longest mortgage possible and then overpay it. That way if you ever unexpectedly fall on hard times you have a lot smaller monthly requirement than a short term mortgage.

Absolutely, not saying otherwise.

I'm more talking about those that take out mortgages whereby they have to pay up to 65 or 70 ie. they can't afford to overpay too much if at all, that's not a situation I'd be comfortable with.

viper5

z0oT wrote: »

I don't know how anyone would be comfortable with a mortgage term that goes up to them being 70 or even 65.

Although I guess in some areas in Dublin, there's probably no choice to take out the maximum term possible if you want your own place there, but surely it can't be worth paying out until you're 65 or 70?

Assuming it all works out, my wife and I will have a 15 year mortgage term. Having worked it out with some lump sum overpayments, we'll probably be able to pull it back to probably 13 years, maybe even 12. That would have us mortgage free in our early to mid 40's.

To be truthful I wouldn't really be happy with a term of 20 years or more and I'm 30.

What a bizzare post. many people wouldn’t be comfortable buying a house at all in this climate or buying the particular house you bought. It is totally personal preference and down to circumstances. There nothing wrong paying a mortgage into your 50s or 60s if it affordable and your dream house.

Always get the longest term you can get and overpay. You never know what will happen in the future and smaller mortgage could be a lifesaver to you and your family.

I understand the prudence in trying to pay off a mortgage earlier but you sound abit obsessed about it. You are probably the type of fella that wouldn’t spend Xmas (joking)

Mickiemcfist

I think there's a weird fascination with paying off the mortgage in Ireland, but yet everyone gets car loans/credit union loans etc. at 8% interest each. In an ideal world, nobody would have debt but a mortgage is for the most part the cheapest cash you'll ever get, I find cash at hand isn't valued as much as it should be.

zl1whqvjs75cdy

I also think at the start of a mortgage you're early on in your career usually. Earnings will hopefully therefore go up. People starting out can't overpay 400 or 500 quid a month. Usually. But later on you can if you want. But not getting a mortgage because you can't pay it off in 20 years is being ultra cautious. You've got to back yourself a bit.

z0oT

viper5 wrote: »

Always get the longest term you can get and overpay. You never know what will happen in the future and smaller mortgage could be a lifesaver to you and your family.

I understand the prudence in trying to pay off a mortgage earlier but you sound abit obsessed about it. You are probably the type of fella that wouldn’t spend Xmas (joking)

In my line of work there are not many people who stick around beyond 60, hence my caution.

See my above post to clarify. Having to keep paying up until 65 is what I'm saying you shouldn't be comfortable with.

With regards to your last comment, I'll concede that I think about it a little more than I should, haven't even got started yet.

Mickiemcfist wrote: »

I think there's a weird fascination with paying off the mortgage in Ireland, but yet everyone gets car loans/credit union loans etc. at 8% interest each. In an ideal world, nobody would have debt but a mortgage is for the most part the cheapest cash you'll ever get, I find cash at hand isn't valued as much as it should be.

Agreed. There's a lot to be said for a little bit of financial prudence and saving for your purchases rather than going down the road of loans.

I see the Credit Unions advertising holidays loans and I always think if you need a loan to go on holidays then you should just stay at home.

Unfortunately a mortgage is a necessary evil because there are very few investments that will easily turn 10/20/30k into the 200/300/400k you'll need to purchase a decent house here.

UsBus

z0oT wrote: »

I don't know how anyone would be comfortable with a mortgage term that goes up to them being 70 or even 65.

Although I guess in some areas in Dublin, there's probably no choice to take out the maximum term possible if you want your own place there, but surely it can't be worth paying out until you're 65 or 70?

Assuming it all works out, my wife and I will have a 15 year mortgage term. Having worked it out with some lump sum overpayments, we'll probably be able to pull it back to probably 13 years, maybe even 12. That would have us mortgage free in our early to mid 40's.

To be truthful I wouldn't really be happy with a term of 20 years or more and I'm 30.

Life doesn't always pan out the way you want it to. I bought a house at 23, 27 & 36. Yet here I am trying to get a mortgage at 40..

backspin.

UsBus wrote: »

Life doesn't always pan out the way you want it to. I bought a house at 23, 27 & 36. Yet here I am trying to get a mortgage at 40..

Why are you having difficulty at 40?

LirW

- tiredly posted in the wrong thread... miles out of the way! -

Glen_Quagmire

LirW wrote:

I'm not a wine- and uber fancy food kinda person. Food experience is a good experience when I'm full and content. I'm also not drinking, so I wouldn't even know what to order there. I might give Chapter One a shot one day though, have heard so many nice things about it.

LirW wrote:

There are a lot of lovely fine dining places up there where you can get superb food without forking out crazy money.

What bank was that with

LirW

Glen_Quagmire wrote: »

What bank was that with

Wow, I shouldn't post before 10 am! :pac:

Corb_lund

What's the best way to get a fair valuation on a property? I had an estate agent come out and blow smoke up my arsè about it being worth 50k more than a nearby house that recently sold. Felt like he just wanted the commission... (Is 1% and 300 euros for costs fair?)

Is it just a question of having multiple agents give a valuation?

utmbuilder

Corb_lund wrote: »

What's the best way to get a fair valuation on a property? I had an estate agent come out and blow smoke up my arsè about it being worth 50k more than a nearby house that recently sold. Felt like he just wanted the commission... (Is 1% and 300 euros for costs fair?)

Is it just a question of having multiple agents give a valuation?

find a agent you feel you can trust and will make you a priority

I think you can sell your house for 600 to 900 now, although a bottom feeding agent will lack the experience and network to get you that extra 10 to 20k

you decide I can recommend many cheap options who will easily flip your home

sherryfitz will over value and keep your house on the market for a year until they get or don't get the high price

a local agent will move it at the going rate in 2 months for his 1%

Cyrus

utmbuilder wrote: »

sherryfitz will over value and keep your house on the market for a year until they get or don't get the high price

a local agent will move it at the going rate in 2 months for his 1%

Bit of a generalisation

LiamoSail

utmbuilder wrote: »

I think you can sell your house for 600 to 900 now, although a bottom feeding agent will lack the experience and network to get you that extra 10 to 20k

The thing is, it's 2018 and people have the internet. This business of the estate agent having some mystical network filled with people willing to spend hundreds of thousands on a property but unable to carry out a basic search on daft.ie for a property seems a bit outdated.

If people are interested enough to bid, likelihood is that they're interested enough to conduct a search beyond those properties Sherry Fitz points then towards.

Doesn't matter if you or Sherry Fitz are the agent, if it's listed on daft 99% of those in the market for that sort of property will see it imo.

Bob24

Cyrus wrote: »

utmbuilder wrote: »

sherryfitz will over value and keep your house on the market for a year until they get or don't get the high price

a local agent will move it at the going rate in 2 months for his 1%

Bit of a generalisation

Yeah, the comment on Sherry Fitzgerald is actually incorrect for the area I have been looking at for a long time. My experience is that over there they pretty much know the exact market value and use it as the asking price, so their places usual sell pretty quickly for around the asking price. Others EAs will under value the asking price on purpose to attract more potential buyers and start bidding wars, which is a different strategy but doesn’t lead to quicker sales (at least in that area).

Cyrus

Bob24 wrote: »

Yeah, the comment on Sherry Fitzgerald is actually incorrect for the area I have been looking at for a long time. My experience is that over there they pretty much know the exact market value and use it as the asking price, so their places usual sell pretty quickly for around the asking price. Others will under value the asking price on purpose to attract more potential buyers and start bidding wars, which is a different strategy but doesn’t lead to quicker sales (at least in that area).

Yes really depends on the area for us selling in Blackrock ( and having met loads of agents when looking for our own house ) sherry fitz were streets ahead .

Cuddlesworth

Cyrus wrote: »

Yes really depends on the area for us selling in Blackrock ( and having met loads of agents when looking for our own house ) sherry fitz were streets ahead .

I said this before on another thread but,

high end property's with low numbers of potential buyers, price high and sell lower to give the idea of a bargain.

Low end properties with high numbers of potential buyer, price low and generate a bidding war.

Depends on the area as to what is high end and what is low end.

UsBus

backspin. wrote: »

Why are you having difficulty at 40?

Well, my last house purchase was a joint mortgage, didn't work out. This one will be a single application.

Rothmans

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/the-economist-says-dublin-house-prices-are-25-over-valued-1.3608951?mode=amp

The Economist reporting that Dublin properties overvalued by 25% and it's got to come to an end soon apparently. I wonder how accurate it is?

hots

Rothmans wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/the-economist-says-dublin-house-prices-are-25-over-valued-1.3608951?mode=amp

The Economist reporting that Dublin properties overvalued by 25% and it's got to come to an end soon apparently. I wonder how accurate it is?

Good headline, one above a buzzfeed one. The chart is a tiny bit more revealing:

Amirani

Rothmans wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/the-economist-says-dublin-house-prices-are-25-over-valued-1.3608951?mode=amp

The Economist reporting that Dublin properties overvalued by 25% and it's got to come to an end soon apparently. I wonder how accurate it is?

"Overvalued" relative to income affordability, an import distinction.

Where does it say that it's "got to come to an end soon"? It says outlook on Dublin is less bearish than elsewhere and doesn't suggest any end?

As regards accuracy, it's an opinion. No real way to test its accuracy.

draiochtanois

This post has been deleted.

The_Conductor

Rothmans wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/the-economist-says-dublin-house-prices-are-25-over-valued-1.3608951?mode=amp

The Economist reporting that Dublin properties overvalued by 25% and it's got to come to an end soon apparently. I wonder how accurate it is?

Its a reasonable study of how property prices have run away from core fundamentals (in this instance- median disposable household income) in the 22 global cities who have experienced the most rapid increases in property prices over the past decade. Of the 22 cities- Dublin comes in 10th place.

The argument being made- is that demand is slowing, supply is increasing- and the cost of money is increasing- all factors which are likely to affect Dublin (and Irish) property prices in the near to medium term.

We have managed to ramp up output- we are on trend to complete over 20k units this year........

If you look at the Economist from two weeks ago- they looked at the rental market from the perspective of prospective landlords- and the regulatory and tax regimes in a number of different markets- and point to the exodus in Ireland and the UK (for different reasons- obviously the abolition of tax relief on mortgages in the UK- is their biggest driver).

There is a lot happening both here and in the UK- and there are funny things happening in the London and Dublin property markets- which have questionable significance for the average person- but massive influence on the property market as a whole.

Apartment prices- are now rising at almost double the rate of houses in Dublin (from a lower base admittedly)- and certain sectors of the market have effectively stalled (as there are finite number of people out there looking for 500k+ valued properties- however you try to look at it).

A few people are still beating the Brexit drum- and suggesting that we're going to get more well paying finance jobs in Dublin- and these people are likely to buy in Dublin- I suspect they're not- I suspect they're just as likely to want to rent- as its just as likely their jobs will move to New York or elsewhere- before we know whats happened (we *did* loose 120 finance jobs to NY in the last week)...........

Its a mess out there- and getting messier by the day. I wouldn't like to try and call when anything is going to happen- however, it would appear to be 'when' more so than 'if'............

Rothmans

Amirani wrote: »

"Overvalued" relative to income affordability, an import distinction.

Where does it say that it's "got to come to an end soon"? It says outlook on Dublin is less bearish than elsewhere and doesn't suggest any end?

As regards accuracy, it's an opinion. No real way to test its accuracy.

The last line of the article says something along the lines of people are wrongly assuming that because land is a finite resource property prices cannot fall, and that supply is ticking upwards in Ireland as in every other city mentioned. It's certainly implied in the article that a correction is imminent.

Bob24

For reference and to go straight to the source, here is the original piece from the economist they seem to be referring to: https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2018/08/11/our-cities-house-price-index-suggests-the-property-market-is-slowing

Dublin is on the charts but not specifically discussed in the article.

Bubbaclaus

Does anyone have any figures on how many properties fall into disrepair and become obsolete annually?

If our population is increasing by approx 50k per year, and the average household size in ireland is 2.7, this points to housing creation of 20k meeting our population growth (obviously needs to go above this to meet the backlog that has been built up).

We are at about 17k dwellings completed now per annum so if we were to assume 0 dwellings falling into disrepair we would nearly seem close to meeting demand. It would be interesting to see how far we are actually off if we bring dwelling obsolence into the figures.

Pussyhands

This situation is getting worse and worse. It's like 6 years of this now.

CalRobert

Bubbaclaus wrote: »

Does anyone have any figures on how many properties fall into disrepair and become obsolete annually?

I don't have a source but have read in a few places that 1% or so of the housing stock becomes obsolete per year. Of course, situations like our current one might affect this - I'm more inclined to fix up an old cottage now than I would be with lots of cheap newer homes available.

hots

Pussyhands wrote: »

This situation is getting worse and worse. It's like 6 years of this now.

Anecdotal for Dublin ftb searching only, but it feels as though it's slowed down a hell of a lot in the last few months, much less chaotic at viewings and bidding has been less insane on the properties we're looking at. Purely from very narrow experience obviously.