Property Market 2018

_brendand_

hots wrote: »

Anecdotal for Dublin ftb searching only, but it feels as though it's slowed down a hell of a lot in the last few months, much less chaotic at viewings and bidding has been less insane on the properties we're looking at. Purely from very narrow experience obviously.

I concur. Been looking since February, fairly noticable shift since July.

heebusjeebus

_brendand_ wrote: »

I concur. Been looking since February, fairly noticable shift since July.

July & August are typically slow. September & January are the busy times.

hots

heebusjeebus wrote: »

July & August are typically slow. September & January are the busy times.

Thought that was the case alright, as buyers it's felt as though there was no slow in the amount of property going up on the market and we've found it much easier bidding, is it just the number of buyers that slows during the summer?

heebusjeebus

hots wrote: »

Thought that was the case alright, as buyers it's felt as though there was no slow in the amount of property going up on the market and we've found it much easier bidding, is it just the number of buyers that slows during the summer?

I think it's the buyers are busy doing other things.
I put my apartment on the market at end of Nov last year.
Had a week of decent interest and then it all died off until the 2nd week of Jan. Had it sale agreed by end of Jan.

thatboy1

hots wrote: »

Anecdotal for Dublin ftb searching only, but it feels as though it's slowed down a hell of a lot in the last few months, much less chaotic at viewings and bidding has been less insane on the properties we're looking at. Purely from very narrow experience obviously.

I've found it hit and miss with viewings. Some are packed and other I've been the only person there.

Henbabani

just went through Daft Dublin sales.
first 20 pages - 27 red arrows meaning price decrease and 2 green arrows (price increased).

Just saying.

hots

Henbabani wrote: »

just went through Daft Dublin sales.
first 20 pages - 27 red arrows meaning price decrease and 2 green arrows (price increased).

Just saying.

It's a little misleading, in this market I'm stunned that there are any green arrows at all tbh, any EA worth their salt is sticking property up at fairly astronomical heights to see if anyone is mad enough to bite and then dropping slowly after that from what I've seen.

seamus

hots wrote: »

It's a little misleading, in this market I'm stunned that there are any green arrows at all tbh, any EA worth their salt is sticking property up at fairly astronomical heights to see if anyone is mad enough to bite and then dropping slowly after that from what I've seen.

I think this is it. In many areas there will be people with their eye on a particular location, waiting for something to come up.
They're sitting on a pot of gold, just need something to spend it on.

The EA is hoping when they first list the property that someone will leap on it and they'll have it sale agreed in a week with little bargaining.

When that doesn't happen they revert towards the AMV to build up some interest.

Henbabani

hots wrote: »

It's a little misleading, in this market I'm stunned that there are any green arrows at all tbh, any EA worth their salt is sticking property up at fairly astronomical heights to see if anyone is mad enough to bite and then dropping slowly after that from what I've seen.

i think that if from 400 listed properties - 27 of them was with red arrows. it means more than that. we just need to wait and see.

OwlsZat

seamus wrote: »

They're sitting on a pot of gold, just need something to spend it on.

Plenty sitting on a pot of gold watching the market soften. Recent analysis had Dublin at 25% overpriced. There is lots of commentary around how we are late in the investment cycle. Think some people are just happy to play the watching game. If their situation allows them to do so.

Sarn

I think house prices will remain over valued for the next few years. The rate of increase is slowing which is a good thing. But an increase is still an increase.

Bank exemptions seem to have dried up a lot earlier this year, but there appears to be a big jump in people seeking mortgage approval, judging by the queries on this forum. It’ll be interesting to see if the Central Bank tinkers with the lending rules later this year.

Franz Von Peppercorn

Henbabani wrote: »

just went through Daft Dublin sales.
first 20 pages - 27 red arrows meaning price decrease and 2 green arrows (price increased).

Just saying.

Thats been true for a long time. People try their asking price high.

The green arrows don't make that much sense as there is no need for them. Bidding wars can happen regardless.

Mickiemcfist

OwlsZat wrote: »

Plenty sitting on a pot of gold watching the market soften. Recent analysis had Dublin at 25% overpriced. There is lots of commentary around how we are late in the investment cycle. Think some people are just happy to play the watching game. If their situation allows them to do so.

Did you see the places which were higher than 25% overvalued in that list? Paris, N.Y., London, HK etc. Places that have been 25% plus since day dot, that analysis is about as relevant as correlating Dublin house proximity to the nearest lolly pop shop & blaming that for the high cost. We're a county where 80% of the big jobs get allocated to a small 10 square mile patch, of course it's expensive relative to average salaries

Bob24

Mickiemcfist wrote: »

Did you see the places which were higher than 25% overvalued in that list? Paris, N.Y., London, HK etc. Places that have been 25% plus since day dot, that analysis is about as relevant as correlating Dublin house proximity to the nearest lolly pop shop & blaming that for the high cost. We're a county where 80% of the big jobs get allocated to a small 10 square mile patch, of course it's expensive relative to average salaries

Yes, to put thinks in perspective on that study HK properties are 94% overvalued.

Rather that just shouting “overvalued” it is good to understand what the study measures: the ratio between property price and your average household’s income.

So I think what these 25% mean is that Dublin is joining the club of global cities with limited housing supply and growing income inequalities, which makes it gradually harder for a “regular” household to purchase property.

This doesn’t mean prices can’t/won’t drop, but thinking that 0% overvaluation on that metrics is a target and the normal state would be a big mistake. There are many long term factors which can explain why people have to spend a different chunks of their income on property depending on which city they live in.

The_Conductor

Sarn wrote: »

I think house prices will remain over valued for the next few years. The rate of increase is slowing which is a good thing. But an increase is still an increase.

Bank exemptions seem to have dried up a lot earlier this year, but there appears to be a big jump in people seeking mortgage approval, judging by the queries on this forum. It’ll be interesting to see if the Central Bank tinkers with the lending rules later this year.

The rate of increase- has turned negative in some areas in Dublin (not universally)- and is beginning to radiate outwards. Some subsequent phases of multiphase developments in West Dublin (Lucan and Celbridge) are no longer increasing the prices for subsequent phases- and indeed, after two weekends- a lot of the properties are being taken off the market- and placed on alternative markets to try and not dilute the prices of stock that is shifting.

Developers and estate agents are at a stage where they are actively having to play games to make sure they don't damage prices (look at Easton in Leixlip as a prime example).

I don't think we're going to crash- but I don't think anyone should be terribly surprised if we see some gentle price falls in new developments over the next 18-24 months (which will of course be location dependent).

The issue is- prices have ran away with themselves- however, very few people have had increases in salary to justify the astounding house price inflation we've experienced (and 16% of the workforce- the public sector- are still down at least 18% on where they were in 2008- whereas the private sector are up 4-5%- and property prices are up 16-18%% (on 2008 prices- which were not the trough of the market).............

House prices have simply divorced themselves from economic fundamentals- the only thing driving them has been the scarscity factor- which is righting itself.

As for completions- its looking likely that we will be comfortably over 20k units this year- it had looked that we'd be around 18k units- but that has been revised upwards. The bigger issue now- as always- is location, location, location........... A sizeable chunk of our population want to live in Dublin- which is not capable of accommodating them (including our homeless- who seem to be drawn to Dublin from the regional towns and cities- for inexplicable reasons).

We need to get our act together- and get high density units up and running in Dublin- while at the same time- we need to tell people- they can't all live in Dublin- its simply not possible..........

OwlsZat

Mickiemcfist wrote: »

Did you see the places which were higher than 25% overvalued in that list? Paris, N.Y., London, HK etc. Places that have been 25% plus since day dot, that analysis is about as relevant as correlating Dublin house proximity to the nearest lolly pop shop & blaming that for the high cost. We're a county where 80% of the big jobs get allocated to a small 10 square mile patch, of course it's expensive relative to average salaries

The newspaper says that prices across these cities may now be at a turning point, as the three reasons why cities have experienced a property boom – and why it may now be ending – are demand, supply and the cost of money.

“As demand weakens, supply strengthens and mortgage rates rise, the bull run in global cities’ housing may be drawing to an end,” it says.

Mickiemcfist

The_Conductor wrote: »

The rate of increase- has turned negative in some areas in Dublin (not universally)- and is beginning to radiate outwards. Some subsequent phases of multiphase developments in West Dublin (Lucan and Celbridge) are no longer increasing the prices for subsequent phases- and indeed, after two weekends- a lot of the properties are being taken off the market- and placed on alternative markets to try and not dilute the prices of stock that is shifting.

Developers and estate agents are at a stage where they are actively having to play games to make sure they don't damage prices (look at Easton in Leixlip as a prime example).

I don't think we're going to crash- but I don't think anyone should be terribly surprised if we see some gentle price falls in new developments over the next 18-24 months (which will of course be location dependent).

The issue is- prices have ran away with themselves- however, very few people have had increases in salary to justify the astounding house price inflation we've experienced (and 16% of the workforce- the public sector- are still down at least 18% on where they were in 2008- whereas the private sector are up 4-5%- and property prices are up 16-18%% (on 2008 prices- which were not the trough of the market).............

House prices have simply divorced themselves from economic fundamentals- the only thing driving them has been the scarscity factor- which is righting itself.

As for completions- its looking likely that we will be comfortably over 20k units this year- it had looked that we'd be around 18k units- but that has been revised upwards. The bigger issue now- as always- is location, location, location........... A sizeable chunk of our population want to live in Dublin- which is not capable of accommodating them (including our homeless- who seem to be drawn to Dublin from the regional towns and cities- for inexplicable reasons).

We need to get our act together- and get high density units up and running in Dublin- while at the same time- we need to tell people- they can't all live in Dublin- its simply not possible..........

Suggesting to people that they shouldn't live in Dublin is useless until the government starts incentivising FDI outside of it, every time I hear of another 300 jobs in Dub I can't help but roll my eyes and wonder where they're going to live.

Additionally we've a larger housing deficit right now than we did in Sept 2017, 20k isn't even keeping up with current demand, let alone digging into the backlog. The thing that's slowing down prices in Dublin is the income multiple limit.

Mickiemcfist

OwlsZat wrote: »

The newspaper says that prices across these cities may now be at a turning point, as the three reasons why cities have experienced a property boom – and why it may now be ending – are demand, supply and the cost of money.

“As demand weakens, supply strengthens and mortgage rates rise, the bull run in global cities’ housing may be drawing to an end,” it says.

You know outside of the graphic, Dublin wasn't actually mentioned in the original article? We're a micro economy, demand hasn't weakened, supply has barely strengthened

OwlsZat

Mickiemcfist wrote: »

You know outside of the graphic, Dublin wasn't actually mentioned in the original article? We're a micro economy, demand hasn't weakened, supply has barely strengthened

When you say outside of the graphic. You mean outside of the data, the data the article is actually based on?

Mickiemcfist

OwlsZat wrote: »

When you say outside of the graphic. You mean outside of the data, the data the article is actually based on?

I was replying to your point: "The newspaper says that prices across these cities may now be at a turning point" which is not a direct opinion of Dublin, if anything Dublin in the context of that graphic shows we've a lot of room to move upwards before it becomes a real issue

OwlsZat

Mickiemcfist wrote: »

I was replying to your point: "The newspaper says that prices across these cities may now be at a turning point" which is not a direct opinion of Dublin, if anything Dublin in the context of that graphic shows we've a lot of room to move upwards before it becomes a real issue

What issue does it become then? Heaven forbid it becomes a homeless crisis!

Q&A

My take on the market:
House price growth is slowing in Dublin because prices are approaching levels that are close to what mortgage rules allow. Things will pick up when mortgage exemptions are offered again but that will be a cyclical effect.
Basic lack of supply will keep prices high and unless Google, Facebook and Amazon collapse demand for housing in Dublin will keep Dublin prices at current levels. Brexit might actually push up demand as the city "benefits" from some relocations.
More scope for banks to lend to the rest of the country where affordability measures are not as stretched. Brexit likely to slow growth here rather than be negative (but all depends on the region).

At the end of the day there are too few properties for what people want and people will have to pay if they want one of these rare goods.

smurgen

Can see property prices falling big time in the next 12 months.

Glen_Quagmire

smurgen wrote:

Can see property prices falling big time in the next 12 months.

What are you basing that on?

Bob24

smurgen wrote: »

Can see property prices falling big time in the next 12 months.

As they say, if you say it often enough eventually it will be right.

But on my end I find it hard to make predictions as there are too many exogenous factors involved.

Shedite27

smurgen wrote: »

Can see property prices falling big time in the next 12 months.

I'd love to get a count of how many times people have said that on here since 2014

Bubbaclaus

smurgen wrote: »

Can see property prices falling big time in the next 12 months.

Absolutely 0 basis for that.

Henbabani

Bubbaclaus wrote: »

smurgen wrote: »

Can see property prices falling big time in the next 12 months.

Absolutely 0 basis for that.

Don't think so, when Dragi stop buy back, and Italy and Spain can collapse
Things can be bad even sooner.
If Turkey collapse than Spain and Italy with her.

smurgen

Bubbaclaus wrote: »

smurgen wrote: »

Can see property prices falling big time in the next 12 months.

Absolutely 0 basis for that.

Brexit coming to a head, end of the investment cycle,possible political turmoil in the U.S. the talking up of prices in here is quiet unbelieveable but mirrors the bitcoin thread in a funny way.the same insults were thrown at those of us trying to be rational in that thread.

smurgen

Bubbaclaus wrote: »

smurgen wrote: »

Can see property prices falling big time in the next 12 months.

Absolutely 0 basis for that.

Brexit coming to a head, end of the investment cycle,possible political turmoil in the U.S. the talking up of prices in here is quiet unbelieveable but mirrors the bitcoin thread in a funny way.the same insults were thrown at those of us trying to be rational in that thread.