Property Market 2018

Edgware

For what it is worth.
An Estate Agent friend ( Do Estate Agents have friends you may well ask!) told me that in his experience there is a slowdown in the Dublin market.
Less people turning up for viewings and a number of occasions where he has had to reduce the asking price of a property with bids coming in if at all about 15% below asking price.
Estate agents have been using guide prices from sales a year ago which are not been achieved now

handlemaster

oceanman wrote: »

mickrick1 wrote: »

Thanks for the responses - much appreciated. I had thought that city centre would be the best option. I just wondered if I could get a decent enough property for 250k. I know that there are huge numbers working for Google, Facebook etc. Wouldn't be sure that the type of property I could get would appeal to this rental market. There appears to be a few options on Daft but haven't contacted any Auctioneers as yet.

with all the landlords leaving the market because they supposedly cant make any money! you should have no trouble picking up something..

The joke will be on the tenants

Bob24

Eleanor Howling Anorexic wrote: »

Yeah better off to keep paying money to a landlord without security of tenancy until prices drop in the recession which will definitely happen in two years at which point nobody will give you a mortgage on a house, either because banks won't be lending or because you'll be unemployed.

The post you quoted was replying to an OP who’s thinking of buying an investment property.

I don’t think I would recommend buying one either. Too much trouble with tenants and I would agree that any investment plan made based on the assumption that today’s rent levels and property prices will remain similar or increase for the foreseeable future is fairly risky. Of course nothing is never for sure but because there is no certainty a recession will happen in the next few years doesn’t mean anyone should ignore that possibility when making an investment decision.

Jjjjjjjbarry

All over Sky News about a coming financial crisis. You wouldn’t know what to believe. I suppose, if you find the right home for you and intend staying there and can afford it, then go for it assuming it’s somewhat reasonably priced at that time. If you’re just buying for investment then I guess you have enough money already so should just wait.

Cyrus

smurgen wrote: »

Better off paying an overpriced mortgage for two years and when your company goes bust and you scrimp and struggle to pay your mortgage and in the end post your keys back to the bank because you can't find a job and no one is buying you can move back in with your elderly parents until you've enough money to emigrate.

Post your keys back to the bank ? What good will that do?

adriaaaan

Eleanor Howling Anorexic wrote: »

Yeah better off to keep paying money to a landlord without security of tenancy until prices drop in the recession which will definitely happen in two years at which point nobody will give you a mortgage on a house, either because banks won't be lending or because you'll be unemployed.

This is a key point. I wasn't house hunting in 2010 but someone on here posted that the banks would only lend 1.5 times salary. Is this correct? It gave me pause for thought on a lot of comments on here to hold hold on and wait until the next recession to buy. Or being regretful that you couldn't buy in 2011. In my mind a house price is what a person is willing to pay for it and if you need a house and can afford the repayments and it has the three LLLs then buy it

Bob24

adriaaaan wrote: »

This is a key point. I wasn't house hunting in 2010 but someone on here posted that the banks would only lend 1.5 times salary. Is this correct?

Maybe they were in a specific situation which made the bank cautious, but it certainly wasn’t the general rule.

I regret not buying then (for personal - non professional or financial - reasons I put those plans on hold), but with a salary around 50k back in 2011 BOI had no problem offering me a mortgage of 150k knowing that I already had 30k left on a mortgage in another country with monthly repayments of 400 euros. Not sure what’s the max they would have offered as I gave my desired figure rather than asking for as much as possible - but it certainly wasn’t 1.5 times salary.
Many colleagues also got mortgages approved and a few of them (who are laughing now) did buy. All people working in IT for an American multinational company - most of them single with no dependants. Having a dependant spouse/partner and children is probably what limited a lot of people back then - one person in the couple had lost their job and all of a sudden the remaining employed person looked a lot less attractive to the banks as they had to support a whole family on their own on top of repaying a potential mortgage. The way banks look at it now is no different - what’s different is that nowadays most people who want to work have jobs and thus less couples are in that situation.

Edgware

Edgware wrote: »

For what it is worth.
An Estate Agent friend ( Do Estate Agents have friends you may well ask!) told me that in his experience there is a slowdown in the Dublin market.
Less people turning up for viewings and a number of occasions where he has had to reduce the asking price of a property with bids coming in if at all about 15% below asking price.
Estate agents have been using guide prices from sales a year ago which are not been achieved now

I posted here a few months ago about 2 people I know trying to sell houses. Prime first time buyer/ young family homes & no interest in almost a year.
House I went to look at on a good part of Dublin, nearly 2 years ago is still on the market, listed at 100k more than 2 years ago.
Estate agent told me too that they are selling nothing this year!

The_Conductor

bubblypop wrote: »

I posted here a few months ago about 2 people I know trying to sell houses. Prime first time buyer/ young family homes & no interest in almost a year.
House I went to look at on a good part of Dublin, nearly 2 years ago is still on the market, listed at 100k more than 2 years ago.
Estate agent told me too that they are selling nothing this year!

Even new developments in West Dublin- are having a hard time shifting- and are being released in dribs and drabs on daft.ie/myhome.ie and elsewhere- to mask the fact they simply failed to sell at open days etc.........

There is a chill setting in- radiating outwards from Dublin- its not reached the regions yet- but its only a matter of time...........

Lots of people are predicting a 'soft-landing' on the basis of a continuing scarcity of supply- however, the fact of the matter is- people's salarys quite simply have not risen in the manner that the prices of everything else have done- and it looks likely that there is no help on the horizon............

Times are tough- and the future looks cloudier than ever.

Sarn

It really shows how different areas are experiencing different demand. In my area of south Dublin, two properties in our estate have gone sale agreed two weeks after going up and have gone for above asking. Quite a bit in one case because it was priced way below what others went for recently. Lots of interest unsurprisingly. It ended up almost a 100k over asking.

In the past few months they’ve been snapped up fairly quickly. Prior to that things had been very slow. These are all in the >500k range.

The_Conductor

The_Conductor wrote: »

...

Times are tough- and the future looks cloudier than ever.

Times were tougher 5/7years ago imo.
Emigration to Oz rampant etc.

House prices not rising is largely a positive thing imo.

lennyloulou

so do any of think there will be a massive or moderate decrease in 2019 in houses?
My hubbie died suddenly a few years ago and I sold the house in 2016 and emigrated. I am keeping an eye on Kilkenny. Houses are expensive. I do not wish a recession for Ireland. I am not in a huge rush in 2019 to come back and buy.
Any advice please?

clio_16v

lennyloulou wrote: »

so do any of think there will be a massive or moderate decrease in 2019 in houses?
My hubbie died suddenly a few years ago and I sold the house in 2016 and emigrated. I am keeping an eye on Kilkenny. Houses are expensive. I do not wish a recession for Ireland. I am not in a huge rush in 2019 to come back and buy.
Any advice please?

I very much doubt it. Employment is rising, supply isn't close to what is needed and borrowing rules are still relatively stringent. Unless there is a dramtic change economically I cant see a levelling out for 5+ years

Edgware

lennyloulou wrote: »

so do any of think there will be a massive or moderate decrease in 2019 in houses?
My hubbie died suddenly a few years ago and I sold the house in 2016 and emigrated. I am keeping an eye on Kilkenny. Houses are expensive. I do not wish a recession for Ireland. I am not in a huge rush in 2019 to come back and buy.
Any advice please?

Good centres of population such as Kilkenny City will not decrease too much. They have the services such as hospitals, motorways, rail links, shops and hotels. It is in rural villages that you will see stagnation of price

KevinCavan

It will take something very big to rock the Irish economy in the medium term. I don’t think Brexit will be enough even. Trump orcastrating some financial disaster in the u.s. would hurt us more than any Brexit.

Corb_lund

KevinCavan wrote: »

It will take something very big to rock the Irish economy in the medium term. I don’t think Brexit will be enough even. Trump orcastrating some financial disaster in the u.s. would hurt us more than any Brexit.

Brexit could be the biggest blow to us. If the British stopped taking out agri produce out of spite or cheaper deals elsewhere, we would have massive socio economic problems in rural areas

If Britain somehow actually made a good stab at brexit (lololol) we could have migration of people (same ones who prob hate them :pac: ) going over.

Also if they played dirty and started an arms race of deregulation some of our FDI might look back across.

Or maybe they might invade us again for that sweet beef :pac:

Shedite27

Corb_lund wrote: »

Also if they played dirty and started an arms race of deregulation some of our FDI might look back across.

Most of our FDI is here just because we're in the EU. There's no way they'd move to UK. If anything it would go the other way (as per Barclays, Aviva etc)

Corb_lund

Shedite27 wrote: »

Most of our FDI is here just because we're in the EU. There's no way they'd move to UK. If anything it would go the other way (as per Barclays, Aviva etc)

But depending on global trends the EU may not keep its importance in fin mkts esp with rise in east.

I guess its hard to determine at the moment, hence why its of such possible risk to us, being an island between them and Europe.

smurgen

KevinCavan wrote: »

It will take something very big to rock the Irish economy in the medium term. I don’t think Brexit will be enough even. Trump orcastrating some financial disaster in the u.s. would hurt us more than any Brexit.

you don't think Brexit will be big enough to disrupt the irish economy? It's has the possibility to turn into one of the biggest events in the history of the country.

smurgen

lennyloulou wrote: »

so do any of think there will be a massive or moderate decrease in 2019 in houses?
My hubbie died suddenly a few years ago and I sold the house in 2016 and emigrated. I am keeping an eye on Kilkenny. Houses are expensive. I do not wish a recession for Ireland. I am not in a huge rush in 2019 to come back and buy.
Any advice please?

If i was you I would hold off a year or two to see how things go.you probably are cash rich and in employment abroad.i see no point in buying now at the height of the market.

riclad

i do not think there,ll be any large decrease in prices in the next 2 years.We need 20 k houses to be built every year now .
We are building a few 1000 at the moment.
Outside the citys , in rural area,s price are lower anyway,
people are ready for brexit.
I see no downside to buying a house now.
I,d expect there to be a trade deal with the uk, after brexit is done.

Bubbaclaus

riclad wrote: »

i do not think there,ll be any large decrease in prices in the next 2 years.We need 20 k houses to be built every year now .
We are building a few 1000 at the moment.
Outside the citys , in rural area,s price are lower anyway,
people are ready for brexit.
I see no downside to buying a house now.
I,d expect there to be a trade deal with the uk, after brexit is done.

We are building 17k new dwellings a year currently and planning permissions in last 12 months for 27.6k new dwellings. Substantially more than "a few 1000".

PokeHerKing

smurgen wrote:

If i was you I would hold off a year or two to see how things go.you probably are cash rich and in employment abroad.i see no point in buying now at the height of the market.

How do you know we are at the height of the market?

rosmoke

PokeHerKing wrote: »

How do you know we are at the height of the market?

1. Have a look at economic cycles and their average occurring period & how much time elapsed from the latest one.

2. A brand new house that is 350k here, costs 20k to build on the EU mainland in some countries. Yeah, factor land, salaries and what else you want, but the difference it's still out of proportion.

3. Good indicator for US economy (implicitly our economy as well) is the unemployment rate. See attached images with US & EU unemployment rates.

4. Some interesting numbers that I've seen (available houses for sale from daft.ie):
DAFT 21,510 properties ireland 05 July 2018
DAFT 21,559 properties ireland 07 July 2018
DAFT 21,547 properties ireland 13 July 2018
DAFT 21,771 properties ireland 5 Sept 2018
DAFT 21,890 properties ireland 8 Sept 2018
DAFT 22,210 properties ireland 16 Sept 2018

Cyrus

rosmoke wrote: »

2. A brand new house that is 350k here, costs 20k to build on the EU mainland in some countries. Yeah, factor land, salaries and what else you want, but the difference it's still out of proportion.

What are you talking about

rosmoke

Cyrus wrote: »

What are you talking about

Talking about how much does it cost to build a rubbish house. Because most houses are rubbish here.

homerjay2005

cardshark wrote: »

Is anyone noticing a lot more 'For Sale' signs up around the place recently or is it just me?!

on the contrary - supply getting less and less from what ive seen. i was looking this time last year, was a good few options in our particular area, theres nothing now in that price region.

PokeHerKing

rosmoke wrote:

1. Have a look at economic cycles and their average occurring period & how much time elapsed from the latest one.

rosmoke wrote:

2. A brand new house that is 350k here, costs 20k to build on the EU mainland in some countries. Yeah, factor land, salaries and what else you want, but the difference it's still out of proportion.

rosmoke wrote:

3. Good indicator for US economy (implicitly our economy as well) is the unemployment rate. See attached images with US & EU unemployment rates.

rosmoke wrote:

4. Some interesting numbers that I've seen (available houses for sale from daft.ie): DAFT 21,510 properties ireland 05 July 2018 DAFT 21,559 properties ireland 07 July 2018 DAFT 21,547 properties ireland 13 July 2018 DAFT 21,771 properties ireland 5 Sept 2018 DAFT 21,890 properties ireland 8 Sept 2018 DAFT 22,210 properties ireland 16 Sept 2018

I appreciate the lengthy response but I'm failing to see how any of it answers my question.

riclad

If you have the money you buy in the next 6 months.
I see no point in waiting 2 years in the hope there ,ll be a significant drop in house prices.Unless you are living with your parents you are probably paying rent to a landlord.

Cyrus

rosmoke wrote: »

Talking about how much does it cost to build a rubbish house. Because most houses are rubbish here.

Sorry that post was utter nonsense