Property Market 2018

Cyrus

Moonjet wrote: »

I'm in stitches laughing at the idea that new population centres will spring up in commuter towns with everyone's autonomous electric self-driving, self-charging car taking them to and from work in Dublin (then go off and park itself somewhere for the day) will happen any time soon.

itll happen in your life time, open your mind a little

dor843088

Moonjet wrote: »

I'm in stitches laughing at the idea that new population centres will spring up in commuter towns with everyone's autonomous electric self-driving, self-charging car taking them to and from work in Dublin (then go off and park itself somewhere for the day) will happen any time soon.
For a start, there's a huge push to get cars out of the city centre and encourage public transport use. Also, people don't just travel into the city centre for work, a large cohort of people in Dublin city at any one time are there for education, shopping, leisure, entertainment, tourism etc. Or will they all live 100 miles away and have self-driving cars too?
Creating regular high speed trains like the TGV into Dublin would be far simpler and more effective at allowing people live in cheaper rural areas and working in the city centre.

Maybe you should head out to sandyford industrial estate and have a look at the teslas for sale in the dealer out there. You'll find them hilarious apparently.

Moonjet

Cyrus wrote: »

itll happen in your life time, open your mind a little

My mind is open, I know the technology exists already but how will it work when every major capital city (including Dublin) is making it harder and harder to get into the city by car? Traffic is at breaking point already. Improved public transport is the future.

Moonjet

dor843088 wrote: »

Maybe you should head out to sandyford industrial estate and have a look at the teslas for sale in the dealer out there. You'll find them hilarious apparently.

Are they full self driving Teslas?
Your ignorance of the difference between self driving and electric cars is as crazy as your plans for the future of Dublin's transport infrastructure.
All Dublin city council need to destroy the whole plan is to introduce a €10/day congestion charge for cars.

Cyrus

Moonjet wrote: »

Are they full self driving Teslas?
Your ignorance of the difference between self driving and electric cars is as crazy as your plans for the future of Dublin's transport infrastructure.

they are self driving, its just illegal to use it

Cyrus

Moonjet wrote: »

My mind is open, I know the technology exists already but how will it work when every major capital city (including Dublin) is making it harder and harder to get into the city by car? Traffic is at breaking point already. Improved public transport is the future.

the point is traffic flows will be much changed, you take human irrationality out of it

also parking requirements change

dor843088

Moonjet wrote: »

Are they full self driving Teslas?
Your ignorance of the difference between self driving and electric cars is as crazy as your plans for the future of Dublin's transport infrastructure.
All Dublin city council need to destroy the whole plan is to introduce a €10/day congestion charge for cars.

I'm in the motor trade . My ignorance of the difference is nil.

Moonjet

Cyrus wrote: »

they are self driving, its just illegal to use it

You are wrong I'm afraid.
They are not fully autonomous self driving. They have similar features to make it easier to drive, but still require a driver. Read the last line:

Tesla Autopilot also known as Enhanced Autopilot after a second hardware version started to be shipped, is an advanced driver-assistance system feature offered by Tesla that has lane centering, adaptive cruise control, self-parking, ability to automatically change lanes with driver confirmation, and enables the car to be summoned to and from a garage or parking spot. Recent improvements to Enhanced Autopilot include transitioning from one freeway to another and exiting the freeway when the user’s destination is near.
As an upgrade above and beyond Enhanced Autopilot's capabilities, the company's stated intent is to offer full self-driving at a future time, acknowledging that legal, regulatory, and technical hurdles must be overcome to achieve this goal.[2]

Moonjet

dor843088 wrote: »

I'm in the motor trade . My ignorance of the difference is nil.

It obviously is if you think those Teslas for sale have full self driving technology.

Ray Palmer

Moonjet wrote: »

My mind is open, I know the technology exists already but how will it work when every major capital city (including Dublin) is making it harder and harder to get into the city by car? Traffic is at breaking point already. Improved public transport is the future.

You can take it as certain that cars are going to be severally curtailed even if not out right banned from the city centre. It is only a matter of time. Public transport has improved but will probably always be bad. Whether you want it or not and regardless of what you think needs to happen first it will happen.

Traffic can get a lot worse and no where near breaking point. Car ownership is likely to change a lot in the future. Uber style bus services are likely to come along and be private. Public transport may change radically

dor843088

Moonjet wrote: »

It obviously is if you think those Teslas for sale have full self driving technology.

https://youtu.be/ivTeW4xWQv0

I'm not going to argue with you any longer . You obviously don't like autonomous vehicles for one reason or another.

Shedite27

Shedite27 wrote: »

How about that Property Market?

Bump

Bluefoam

https://www.dublinlive.ie/news/dublin-news/vandals-set-brand-new-house-15497770.amp

Interesting story... No doubt this is having an effect on the cost of building houses... The security costs alone must be massive for the average developer... If the scum involved in this are willing to take away someone else's opportunity at a home, imagine how they look after the house they were given...

Social housing needs to be replaced with a format that empowers the occupier and allows them to aspire to greater things.

oceanman

Bluefoam wrote: »

https://www.dublinlive.ie/news/dublin-news/vandals-set-brand-new-house-15497770.amp

Interesting story... No doubt this is having an effect on the cost of building houses... The security costs alone must be massive for the average developer... If the scum involved in this are willing to take away someone else's opportunity at a home, imagine how they look after the house they were given...

Social housing needs to be replaced with a format that empowers the occupier and allows them to aspire to greater things.

don't hold your breath on that happening any time soon..

The_Conductor

riclad wrote: »

Most government departments are based in dublin, big tech companys are based in dublin .
I don,t see prices falling in dublin in the future.
People can buy things online, do tax returns etc i don,t think most
people cant work from home unless they are self employed ,
writers, designers , programmers etc
i don,t see the connection between self driving cars and house prices .
The reason why prices are not rising at the moment is maybe because
banks are following the rules re landing ratios ,eg you can just borrow 3 or 3.5 times your annual wage.

Most government departments may have their HQs in Dublin- but very few of them are actually based in Dublin- over 2/3 of all civil servants are in what is colloquially known as 'decentralised' locations.

Prices *are* falling in some price bands in Dublin- its not a prediction- its what is actually happening.

A significant portion of the IT investment in Ireland- is in Counties Kildare and Cork- even Limerick has good Dell jobs, even if manufacturing has moved overseas.

Of the IT companies in Dublin- the Facebooks, Twitter- hell even, ironically, Airbnb- a majority of their staff are non-nationals who specifically want to live and work in Dublin- the average age in Google is 28 and just under 1/3 of staff are Irish..........

There are multiple reasons that house prices aren't rising at breakneck paces- and once 'no-go' areas are becoming gentrified- of which affordability is top of the list. Its all well and good blaming the Central Bank's income multiple- as some sort of bogeyman- it most certainly is keeping a lid on prices despite the government's worse tendencies. However, as important as the income multiple- is the simply fact- we do not do 100% mortgages anymore- people find it hard to save for a deposit- and if you're not a FTB- its doubly hard- you need twice the percentage (though presumably you have some equity in a previous dwelling to put towards this).

Its a complex ecosystem- which tinkering with- patently doesn't work. I'm not saying there should be blanket laissez faire policies- I'm suggesting that the law of unintended consequences- seems never to be explored properly before half baked schemes are dreamt up and implemented.

As for autonomous cars and people working from home- perhaps its the future- perhaps it'll happen in 20-30-40-50 years time. Perhaps when I have grandchildren, it'll still not have to pass- who knows.

We are failing our people of today- we can design a better future for tomorrow's people- but we also have to look after our people of today.........

Cyrus

The_Conductor wrote: »

Prices *are* falling in some price bands in Dublin- its not a prediction- its what is actually happening.


asking or selling? most ppr info is still showing increases?

Fol20

The_Conductor wrote: »

We are failing our people of today- we can design a better future for tomorrow's people- but we also have to look after our people of today.........

The main problem i see with our government is that we always focus ontoday to get the extra few votes without thinking of the unintended consequences along with future planning on pretty much every topic. Instead of rushing into a decision to put a bandage on it quickly today. It should be like war on a macroscale where therre might be casuallities however this is unavoidable and if they implement things gradually over time and long term planning ireland would be much better off. So for example in the accomodation sector instead of dropping social housing from 10pc to 0 and now suggestions of 25-30pc. Just set it a rate that has little fluctuations. You rarely see them do big jumps like that for taxation so the same should be done for everything else

Moonjet

The_Conductor wrote: »

Prices *are* falling in some price bands in Dublin- its not a prediction- its what is actually happening.

Any source or statistics on this? I know asking prices have fallen in some cases, but there's very different to sale prices (which are still rising, albeit at a much slower rate).

beaz2018

Asking prices are certainly lower in North Dublin City than this time last year. Not sure how this is translating to selling prices? I recall being at a viewing in Marino last winter and it was like a funeral was on with the amount of people lining up to take a look. Has this changed I wonder?

Pussyhands

When will the November figures be released? Will be interesting to see.

Interested Observer

beaz2018 wrote: »

Asking prices are certainly lower in North Dublin City than this time last year. Not sure how this is translating to selling prices? I recall being at a viewing in Marino last winter and it was like a funeral was on with the amount of people lining up to take a look. Has this changed I wonder?

I've been house hunting for about 12 months now in the North city and numbers at viewings are WAY down from my experience, and houses are staying much closer to asking price than a year ago. This is anecdotal of course.

Bob24

Interested Observer wrote: »

I've been house hunting for about 12 months now in the North city and numbers at viewings are WAY down from my experience, and houses are staying much closer to asking price than a year ago. This is anecdotal of course.

What about actual selling prices compared to last year?

dor843088

Friend of mine was able to go sale agreed on not one but two houses in Dublin for under the asking price. Houses in the mid 300s . Went for one that accepted 10% under asking price in the end I was quite surprised. Houses round my way in a commuter town are lingering on the market now for months with little interest by all accounts even after dropping asking prices by 7% or so. I think the frenzied buying is well and truly over.

beaz2018

I guess the question then is why are asking prices down/ people viewing down/frenzied buying down. Has the demand been satisfied or are people being cautious (Brexit etc) and waiting for a fall in prices? If they fall much further there aint gona be much building done.

The_Conductor

Moonjet wrote: »

Any source or statistics on this? I know asking prices have fallen in some cases, but there's very different to sale prices (which are still rising, albeit at a much slower rate).

Have a look at specific established developments and their historic sales prices on www.propertypriceregister.ie

I live in Lucan- Laraghcon, Lucan Heights, Sarsfield Park and a few other estates in the village itself- all show this trend.

Note- new developments aren't really showing the same degree of slowdown (yet)- but this is more through supply management techniques- than anything else..........

Moonjet

beaz2018 wrote: »

I guess the question then is why are asking prices down/ people viewing down/frenzied buying down. Has the demand been satisfied or are people being cautious (Brexit etc) and waiting for a fall in prices? If they fall much further there aint gona be much building done.

I think it's more likely prices have been stretched beyond affordability for most buyers, and they can't borrow more due to CB 3.5 income limits. The demand is still there. If wages and employment increase or income taxes cut, or CB limits relaxed (that won't happen though) prices may start rising again.

beaz2018

Moonjet wrote: »

I think it's more likely prices have been stretched beyond affordability for most buyers, and they can't borrow more due to CB 3.5 income limits. The demand is still there. If wages and employment increase or income taxes cut, or CB limits relaxed (that won't happen though) prices may start rising again.

There aint gona be a massive increase in wages or tax cuts..so I guess people will either be renting indefinitely or compromise on location

Moonjet

The_Conductor wrote: »

Have a look at specific established developments and their historic sales prices on www.propertypriceregister.ie

I live in Lucan- Laraghcon, Lucan Heights, Sarsfield Park and a few other estates in the village itself- all show this trend.

Note- new developments aren't really showing the same degree of slowdown (yet)- but this is more through supply management techniques- than anything else..........

So you want me to do the research to back up your point
None of the official reports (Daft/CSO) show any kind of drop in sale prices. They show the rate of increase has slowed down, but prices are certainly not falling.

Moonjet

beaz2018 wrote: »

There aint gona be a massive increase in wages or tax cuts..so I guess people will either be renting indefinitely or compromise on location

Well FG are planning to slowly increase the higher tax threshold to 50k which would put a lot more money in people's pockets:


https://www.thejournal.ie/leo-varadkar-income-tax-fg-ard-fheis-4345216-Nov2018/


CSO stats show wages are growing at fastest rates since before recession:


https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/wage-growth-in-irish-economy-accelerates-to-2-5-1.3406001


If those trends continue, then people will have more income and prices may start rising again. Not to mention we are nearly at full employment.

Zenify

A poster here before put up the share price to some of Irelands residential builders. I now follow it closely as it gives an idea to what investors are thinking about these companies. Take it with a pinch of salt as "investors" can be pretty stupid with the market. 

Carin Homes plc lost 2.5% today alone. Check out the last year in its chart.