Storm Eleanor : Tuesday 02nd PM / Weds 03rd Jan 2108

Neddyusa

Oscar Bravo wrote: »

Will be waiting a long time to see that kind of gust up the road from me, was really crazy for about 40 minutes. short but with a major impact

And in a county not included at all in the Orange ME warning!

Actually the path of peak impact appeared to be through at least 4 counties which were not covered by this mornings warning: Mayo, Roscommon, Leitrim, Cavan.

Or did ME at any stage shift the warning zone from the Leinster, Munster and South Galway one issued this morning?

gozunda

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Just walked out the back holding a plate of apple pie. The bástard wind blew the lot out of my hand!

Why in the name of god would you take a perfectly good plate of apple pie out on a night like tonight?

Sure you wouldn't put a dog out in it

igCorcaigh

Neddyusa wrote: »

And in a county not included at all in the Orange ME warning!

Actually the path of peak impact appeared to be through at least 4 counties which were not covered by this mornings warning: Mayo, Roscommon, Leitrim, Cavan.

Or did ME at any stage shift the warning zone from the Leinster, Munster and South Galway one issued this morning?

Orange alert for Connaught, Cavan and Monaghan as per 19:00

Gaoth Laidir

gozunda wrote: »

Why in the name of god would you take a perfectly good plate of apple pie out on a night like tonight?

Sure you wouldn't put a dog out in it

I just stuck my head out to see what was the sky was. It was actually a lovely night out with the bright moon illuminating the cumulus clouds as they raced overhead.

Saganist

Most planes seem to be able to get into Dublin airport bar one or two go-arounds.

Trebor176

It's lashing and windy in Clondalkin now. Maybe my earlier thought about things dying down was premature! My sister in Naas said that the weather has got worse down there, despite having been calm enough an hour or so ago.

Neddyusa

igCorcaigh wrote: »

Orange alert for Connaught, Cavan and Monaghan as per 19:00

Yes I see that now - but issued at 19.00, which was AFTER the worst of the winds had passed Connacht and while it was peaking in Cavan/Monaghan.

These counties were not covered by any orange warning BEFORE the storm hit - or were they?

Wine Goddess

Wind has been pretty fierce all evening, started about 7pm and stil going with no real let-up since then. We in Firhouse Dublin 24, in the southwest corner, just under the Dublin mountains....
We're on a W/SW corner so maybe slightly more exposed to the direction? As I write wind is getting even stronger..wish I could measure it!

BillyBobBS

I'm sorry but aren't these "alerts" getting a bit OTT? Just back from my walk and yes it's windy but nothing out of the ordinary.

igCorcaigh

Neddyusa wrote: »

Yes I see that now - but issued at 19.00, which was AFTER the worst of the winds had passed Connacht and while it was peaking in Cavan/Monaghan.

These counties were not covered by any orange warning BEFORE the storm hit - or were they?

I'm not sure...

igCorcaigh

BillyBobBS wrote: »

I'm sorry but aren't these "alerts" getting a bit OTT? Just back from my walk and yes it's windy but nothing out of the ordinary.

It seems to be very localised.

Soccarboy11

BillyBobBS wrote: »

I'm sorry but aren't these "alerts" getting a bit OTT? Just back from my walk and yes it's windy but nothing out of the ordinary.

55,000 houses without power, galway city half under water, cork and limerick rivers basically overflowed, and there is still over 100km/h gusts out there..., Moving through Dublin and Naas I believe as posters above just said. No.. it isn't OTT really, it's worthy of orange I think.

monkey lover

Loudest gust of the day in Ballycullen

Jaycornyn

Was out in the shed around 6.30. Wind was crazy. Thought the roof was going to come of. Gates blown over in the yard. Even a gas drum blown over. Not light objects. Lasted about 30 minutes and it's been calm enough since.

Leitrim area. Wasn't much talk of really strong wind here. Wasn't expecting it.

sdanseo

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

I wish they'd stop saying "knots per hour"! It's knots or nautical miles per hour

https://twitter.com/MetEireann/status/948301848015982592

They just posted a clarification, then deleted both original and clarification and updated with correct units. They listened!

Oscar Bravo

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

I wish they'd stop saying "knots per hour"! It's knots or nautical miles per hour

https://twitter.com/MetEireann/status/948301848015982592

they have just correct the tweet lol

Donegal Storm

Neddyusa wrote: »

Yes I see that now - but issued at 19.00, which was AFTER the worst of the winds had passed Connacht and while it was peaking in Cavan/Monaghan.

These counties were not covered by any orange warning BEFORE the storm hit - or were they?

Just the nature of these kind of events unfortunately. The storm essentially didn't even exist until this afternoon when it quickly formed over the west coast. It's a really small, fast moving system with a narrow and short lived band of winds, pinpointing exactly where and when the strongest winds will be is very difficult

OldRio

igCorcaigh wrote: »

Orange alert for Connaught, Cavan and Monaghan as per 19:00

Considering we lost power at 1830hrs (Leitrim) that wasn't much help. Poor form to be honest.
Anyway, trees down, electric off for nearly three hours, debris on roads. Power back now.

Oscar Bravo

One of several examples on the N5 this evening

Pangea

BillyBobBS wrote: »

I'm sorry but aren't these "alerts" getting a bit OTT? Just back from my walk and yes it's windy but nothing out of the ordinary.

The only thing over the top is this articulated Lorry blown over by the wind in Roscommon



https://www.facebook.com/radiomidwest/photos/a.405238832832216.91518.115609018461867/1691043040918449/?type=3&theater

NIMAN

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

It's funny that Malin Head - Ireland's windiest station - was the calmest of the lot at 8 pm.

But Inishowen getting a lot of rain again tonight


Hopefully it'll not be like August, when we had all the flood damage.

HONKEY TONK

Im in Naas. Its very strong wind here

Gaoth Laidir

https://twitter.com/paulodonoghue93/status/948267711246864384

MJohnston

Neddyusa wrote: »

Yes I see that now - but issued at 19.00, which was AFTER the worst of the winds had passed Connacht and while it was peaking in Cavan/Monaghan.

These counties were not covered by any orange warning BEFORE the storm hit - or were they?

This is the crux of the problem Met Eireann face because after Dylan people were giving out to them that there were counties listed in that orange warning that weren't effected, and that ME were too broad in their warnings. Now there are complaints that they're not broad enough. It's really impossible to get this precisely right.

I urge you to go back 24 hours in this thread and look at the charts that the rest of us were looking at. The slight northwards shift from those predicted storm tracks didn't become apparent until AFTER the winds had already hit. I think one model out of many got the track correct, but it had a very exaggerated mean wind and gusts prediction.

Neddyusa

Donegal Storm wrote: »

Just the nature of these kind of events unfortunately. The storm essentially didn't even exist until this afternoon when it quickly formed over the west coast. It's a really small, fast moving system with a narrow and short lived band of winds, pinpointing exactly where and when the strongest winds will be is very difficult

I appreciate that it was a tough track to call and Almost a now-cast.

But the thing is that many knowledge posters on here, several of the short-range models and the UK MET Office had all taken account of the shift Northwards by about 2-3pm in the afternoon.
Yet ME warning wasn't updated until 4-5 hours later - after the damage was done in counties like Mayo.

Maybe they are short-staffed but it seemed a quite glaring omission.

Anyway - I hope the damage isn't as great as Ophelia and there are no fatalities.

MJohnston

Neddyusa wrote: »

But the thing is that many knowledge posters on here, several of the short-range models and the UK MET Office had all taken account of the shift Northwards by about 2-3pm in the afternoon.
Yet ME warning wasn't updated until 4-5 hours later - after the damage was done in counties like Mayo.

I believe the northwards shift became apparent basically on "landfall" when we got to see some satellite pictures of it. That was already too late to make a difference to the warning in the west.

Gaoth Laidir

Unfortunately we're in the unfortunate position to be first port of call for storms like this, so we have very limited upwind weather reports to work off. A few widely-separated databuoys is all, plus a couple of ASCAT scans a day. No weather balloons, no low-level aircraft reports. As such Met Éireann are at a disadvantage compared to say the UKMO, who have had several hours notice of the change of course and plenty of realtime data to update/tweak their forecasts/warnings.

The main problem, though, is that Eleanor was only in its infancy as it hit the west coast, or so we thought. Had we a denser network of databuoys (we need that) and more frequent satellite overpasses then they could have seen the shift earlier. Yes, the Rosenbloom Rule does seem to have hit here, though I'm not sure that this rule is still as good at catching out the models as it once was years ago.

igCorcaigh

STATUS ORANGE

Wind Warning for Donegal, Galway, Leitrim, Mayo, Sligo, Clare, Cork, Kerry and Limerick
Westerly gale to storm winds together with high tides and exceptionally high seas will result in coastal damage and flooding. Damaging gusts likely inland also.

Issued:Tuesday 02 January 2018 22:00
Valid:Tuesday 02 January 2018 22:00 to Wednesday 03 January 2018 14:00

Soccarboy11

igCorcaigh wrote: »

STATUS ORANGE

Wind Warning for Donegal, Galway, Leitrim, Mayo, Sligo, Clare, Cork, Kerry and Limerick
Westerly gale to storm winds together with high tides and exceptionally high seas will result in coastal damage and flooding. Damaging gusts likely inland also.

Issued:Tuesday 02 January 2018 22:00
Valid:Tuesday 02 January 2018 22:00 to Wednesday 03 January 2018 14:00

lets just hope there won't be any more flooding from rivers etc, very devastating for businesses.

MJohnston

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Unfortunately we're in the unfortunate position to be first port of call for storms like this, so we have very limited upwind weather reports to work off. A few widely-separated databuoys is all, plus a couple of ASCAT scans a day. No weather balloons, no low-level aircraft reports. As such Met Éireann are at a disadvantage compared to say the UKMO, who have had several hours notice of the change of course and plenty of realtime data to update/tweak their forecasts/warnings.

The main problem, though, is that Eleanor was only in its infancy as it hit the west coast, or so we thought. Had we a denser network of databuoys (we need that) and more frequent satellite overpasses then they could have seen the shift earlier. Yes, the Rosenbloom Rule does seem to have hit here, though I'm not sure that this rule is still as good at catching out the models as it once was years ago.

Any info on who Rosenbloom was/is?